Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic market is in a stockpiling cycle, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to continue to face pressure [7][8] - The expectation of Sino - US talks boosts the CBOT July US soybean futures, while the decline of Brazilian premium is relatively limited. If the talks fail, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [8] - With the expectation of rising import costs, the M01 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [8] 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Basis Data - As of July 21, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was - 49, - 89 in Tianjin (down 13), - 169 in Rizhao; the spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) was - 169 in Zhangjiagang (down 3), - 209 in Dongguan (down 3), - 159 in Zhanjiang (down 13), - 169 in Fangcheng (down 3); the spot basis of rapeseed meal in the east was - 147 (up 5) [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, such as the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 342, and the futures spread of the main contract being 280 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1768, the soybean CNF premium is shown in the chart, and the import soybean futures gross profit was 258 yuan/ton, down 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska will face high - temperature and drought weather, which may be unfavorable to soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal, which is conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to continue until September [7] - **Demand**: In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, which supports the feed demand. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, the proportion of addition in feed has increased, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal at low prices has been good [7][8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/22 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/21 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 532. 0 | 512. 3 | -19.70 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情上涨,反内卷预期利好市场,大宗化工 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 877.9 | 1057. 1 | 179.16 | 品行情普涨,PTA行情上涨。PTA供应充足,现货基差 走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2271 | 1. 2839 | 0. 0569 | | | | CFR中国PX | 839 | 842 | 3 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 266 | 3 | | | | PTA主力期价( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2510 and far - month contracts have seen a significant increase recently. The reasons include the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market conditions and European port congestion, and some influence from geopolitical factors. The current situation of the European line is stable reality and weak expectation, and the spot price is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. [7][8][9] - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1647, a previous value of 1733, and a decline of 4.98%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1304, a previous value of 1314, and a decline of 0.78%. Other regional indices also show different degrees of rise and fall. [4] - **EC Contracts**: Different EC contracts have different current values, previous values, and changes in prices and positions. For example, the EC2508 contract has a current value of 2291.9, a previous value of 2265.9, and an increase of 1.15%, with a position change of - 879. [4] Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, while US goods entering Indonesia are tax - exempt. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and drafting counter - measures. India is seeking lower tariffs in trade talks with the US, and Trump hinted at a "pretty good agreement". The deadline for sanctions against Russia may come earlier than 50 days. [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short - term, there may still be a rush to ship in July. After the deep discount on the futures market is repaired, investors are advised not to chase high prices. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [9][10]

Market Trends and Investment Analysis Report on Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Anchor, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Palm Oil, Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Synthetic Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Synthetic Rubber, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Corn (C01), Cotton, Urea, PE, PP [1] - **Neutral**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Alumina, Coke, Methanol, Rapeseed Oil, Bitumen, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Coal, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, LPG, Freight Rates on the China - Europe Route [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to be strong in the short - term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, "anti - involution" policies, and real estate policy expectations [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1] - Market uncertainties support a strong short - term shock in gold prices [1] - The decline of the US dollar index and the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme in China are driving up the prices of non - ferrous metals [1] - Market sentiment and supply - demand factors are influencing the prices of various commodities in different directions [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Expected to be strong in the short - term as the market's response to bad news is dull, and the willingness to allocate equity assets has increased [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: In a shock state, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central bank warnings limiting the upside [1] - **Gold**: Expected to have a strong short - term shock due to market uncertainties [1] - **Silver**: Bullish in the short - term, but caution is needed in the medium - term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper, Aluminum**: Prices are rising due to the decline of the US dollar index and the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme in China [1] - **Alumina**: Prices have increased significantly due to the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme and high electrolytic aluminum profits [1] - **Zinc**: Prices have rebounded strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and increased risk of LME zinc squeezing [1] - **Nickel**: Prices are oscillating strongly in the short - term, mainly influenced by the macro - situation, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Prices are boosted by the "anti - involution" policy and improved macro - sentiment [1] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to rise with improved macro - sentiment and continuous reduction of LME tin inventories [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil**: Prices are in a shock state, with strong furnace materials providing valuation support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are in a shock state, with good commodity sentiment but a marginal weakening of fundamentals [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish, with expected growth in international demand and an increase in the reference price in Malaysia, but there are risks of increased production in the origin and weak exports [1] - **Cotton**: Expected to be in a weak shock state, with short - term trade negotiation and weather premiums, and strong medium - term macro - uncertainties [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the price may be affected by the price of crude oil [1] - **Corn**: The C09 contract's rebound space is limited, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted at high prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The MO1 contract is expected to be in a strong shock state, affected by Sino - US relations and import costs [1] - **Pulp**: Bullish in the short - term due to strong commodity sentiment and low valuation [1] - **Log**: After a significant increase, it is not recommended to chase the rise [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures prices are stable, with sufficient inventory expectations and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: Prices are in a shock state, with the market returning to supply - demand logic, expected OPEC+ production increase, and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US [1] - **Bitumen**: Prices are in a shock state, with short - term cost drag and a balance between cost disturbances and demand recovery [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are under pressure due to weakening downstream demand, expected increase in supply, and a slight increase in inventory [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are supported by macro - policies, cost increases, and inventory reduction [1] - **PTA**: Supply has shrunk, but crude oil prices are strong, and the polyester downstream load remains high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to shrink, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1] - **Short Fiber**: Prices are affected by low registration of warehouse receipts, increased factory maintenance, and cost changes [1] - **Styrene**: Prices are affected by the decline in pure benzene prices, increased device load, and weakening basis [1] - **Urea**: Prices are in a weak shock state, with supply contraction expectations and a domestic demand off - season [1] - **PE, PP**: Prices are in a shock state, affected by maintenance, orders, and market sentiment [1] - **PVC**: Prices are in a strong shock state, affected by the increase in coking coal prices and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Prices are in a shock state, affected by cost, demand seasonality, and market sentiment [1] Shipping - **China - Europe Freight Rates**: Expected to form an arc - top trend, with the peak time advancing, and subsequent shipping capacity deployment being sufficient [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 | 一 国贸期货 直纺短纤负荷(周) 92. 30% 93.00% (0. 01) 涤纶短纤产销 -31.00% 84. 00% 53.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 66. 00% 65.00% (0. 01) 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51. 50% 46. 00% (0. 06) 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始術· T325纯涤纱价格 (零收) 解日式SZEL■ = 1.4D直纺余短 景想坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Data - DR001 closed at 1.36 with a -9.56bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -1.66bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a 4.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.47 with a -1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a -0.20bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35, 1.52, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.25bp, 1.65bp, and 1.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.44 with a -3.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 1707 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 2262 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 555 billion yuan [3] - This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on July 25 and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing on July 22 [4] 2. Stock Index Data - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4086, 2772, 6161.3, and 6612.3 respectively, with changes of 0.67%, 0.28%, 1.01%, and 0.92% [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' closing prices and changes are presented, along with their volume and open interest changes [5] - The trading volume of the A - share market reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1289 billion yuan from last Friday, with most sectors rising and the banking sector falling [5] 3. Core Views - With the end of the tax - payment period, inter - bank market funds are abundant [4] - The upcoming policies for ten key industries and the start of a major hydropower project are positive factors [6] - Domestic and overseas factors are generally positive, with A - share liquidity and market sentiment strong, and stock indices expected to be bullish [6] 4. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The price increase is mainly due to supply - side disturbances, which boost market sentiment but have limited impact on the fundamentals. In the short term, the market sentiment is strong, and rumors support the futures price. However, the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase, and industry players can consider hedging at high prices. Also, the basis of the spot to the 08 contract has been repaired, which will stimulate warrant production and reduce the risk of a short squeeze [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 68,000 with a rise of 1,350; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 66,350 with a rise of 1,300 [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 730 with a rise of 19; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 990 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 1545 with a rise of 40; lithiophilite (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 5175 with a rise of 225; lithiophilite (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price with a rise of 320; phospho - lithiophilite has an average price of 6075 with a rise of 250 [1][2]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2508, 2509, 2510, 2511, and 2512 are 71,260 (2.36%), 71,280 (2.53%), 70,520 (2.5%), 70,200 (2.69%), and 70,140 (2.57%) respectively [1]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 32,075; the average prices of ternary materials 811 (polycrystalline/power - type), 613 (single - crystal/power - type), 523 (single - crystal/power - type) are 142,650, 120,175, and 115,195 respectively [2]. Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of downstream is 41,271 tons with an increase of 506 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,310 tons with an increase of 1,880 tons; the daily registered warrant is 9,969 tons with a decrease of 270 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 58,039 tons with a decrease of 559 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 66,602; the profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate is not given; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 71,484; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is - 6,008 [2]. Policy and Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, and will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The Fourth Central Steering Group carried out a special research and discussion on rectifying the irrational competition in the new energy vehicle industry [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is bullish in the short - term, expecting an overall oscillating and bullish performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The rainy weather in domestic rubber - producing areas continues to disrupt production, while overseas weather shows a trend of improvement. Mid - stream inventories are slightly accumulating, and downstream demand has increased. With a bullish sentiment in the commodity market, the short - term performance of natural rubber will be oscillating and bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Affected by rainfall, the supply in domestic and Thai producing areas is restricted, while the supply in Vietnam is growing steadily. The daily rubber collection volume in Hainan is about 3,000 tons, and there may be continuous rainfall in the future. Yunnan's supply is also affected by rain. In Thailand, rainfall has hindered tapping, and the glue price has stabilized. In Vietnam, the climate is stable, and the supply is increasing [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 129.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons and an increase rate of 0.14%. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 79.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber is 49.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR main contract spread has also widened slightly [3]. - **Profit**: The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex has expanded, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has improved but remains negative [3]. - **Valuation**: The absolute price is at a medium - low level, with a neutral valuation, and the valuation of RU relative to NR is low [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Affected by the state reserve purchase policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment, the situation is bullish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, go long on RU2601 and short on NR2509, and short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Driven by the bullish macro - peripheral sentiment, rubber prices continued to rebound. As of July 18, the main RU contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 450 yuan/ton (+3.13%), and the main 20 - number rubber contract closed at 12,675 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 300 yuan/ton (+2.42%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded [9]. - **Position on the Disk**: The position on the disk was stable, and the total position of RU + NR increased slightly [17][23]. - **Spread on the Disk**: The RU - NR spread rebounded, and attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Producing Area Weather**: Overseas producing areas have less rainfall, while domestic areas continue to have rainy weather [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have stabilized [49]. - **Output of Major Producing Countries**: In May, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 369.9 million tons (+1.11%) [62]. - **Export Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In May, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 390.2 million tons (+8.20%) [72]. - **China's Import**: From January to May, China imported 266.2 million tons of natural rubber (+25.28%). In May, the import volume decreased by 13.35% month - on - month, in line with seasonal import expectations [85][100]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory increased slightly. As of July 13, 2025, the social inventory was 129.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons and an increase rate of 0.14% [101][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The tire capacity utilization rate rebounded. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points [109][117]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Production and Sales**: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased month - on - month. In June, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and 8.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. The sales volume of heavy - trucks in June was about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29% [126][137]. - **Tire Export**: From January to June, tire exports were 471 million tons (+4.5%). In June, the export volume of rubber tires was 82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9% [138][145]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [147]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The futures - spot spread of the mixed rubber continued to widen [158].