1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log futures are running at a low level, and the spot price shows signs of a certain bottom - rebound, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers overall [3][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 1 (8% week - on - week), and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters (17% week - on - week) [3] - **Demand**: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous week [3][32][35] - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2026, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters (5.12% week - on - week) [3][31][32] - **Valuation**: The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, in a reasonable range [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The log futures have reached a reasonable range, but there is a lack of bullish drivers - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading and arbitrage strategies are not provided; attention should be paid to domestic demand [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The log futures fluctuated at a low level this week without a fundamental improvement. The total log futures contract positions were 15,862 lots as of January 9th, 2025, an increase of 6.15% from the previous week; the main contract positions were 11,930 lots, an increase of 4.8% [7][11] - **Spot Market**: As of January 9th, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained basically stable. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, both unchanged week - on - week [16][38] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. In November 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.7876 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 19.50% and a year - on - year increase of 12.50%. From January to November 2025, the total was about 16.7954 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.84% [21] - **New Zealand Shipping Volume**: In December 2025, the number of departing ships of New Zealand logs was about 52, an increase of 3 month - on - month, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from October [26] - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2026, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 5.12% week - on - week; radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 5.56% week - on - week; North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, an increase of 42.86% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters [31][32] - **Outbound Volume**: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports increased by 3.58%, while that at Jiangsu ports decreased by 11.07% [32][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish, with expectations of a strong performance mainly driven by the supply side [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market remains strong, influenced by speculative funds and improved production economics due to favorable spreads. The PTA market shows mixed signals, with high consumption but negative feedback from polyester factory cuts and weakening basis. The overall polyester market is expected to be strong based on supply - side drivers [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The PX market is strong, driven by speculative funds and improved production economics as gasoline blending profits decline and PX - related spreads widen [4]. - **Demand**: Bearish. High PTA consumption but negative feedback from polyester factory cuts and early maintenance, leading to weakening basis [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory decreased by 40,000 tons, and major polyester factories are selling PTA spot [4]. - **Basis**: Bullish. PTA basis is weakening, and profits are expanding [4]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The PX - naphtha spread reaches $360, and PTA processing fees expand to around 350 yuan [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices have rebounded above 5000 yuan, and overseas PX plants are increasing loads due to profit expansion [4]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. Geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US - Venezuela situation have not caused significant supply disruptions [4][11]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. Expected to be strong mainly due to supply - side drivers [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have led to a strong oil price. Tensions in the Middle East and the US - Venezuela situation have had limited impact on the market [7][11]. - **Gasoline**: In the US, gasoline inventories are increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits are also weakening [12][17]. - **Global Market**: The global aromatics and refining market is quiet. US refinery utilization is high, but gasoline production is down, and inventories are up [34]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but the market is expected to be strong. Driven by speculative funds and improved production economics [37][79]. - **MX**: The market is influenced by PX. Although gasoline fundamentals are weak, high PX - MX and MX - naphtha spreads support the aromatics path. Supply may increase in the future, and the US export window is mostly closed [63][70]. - **Toluene**: Prices are falling, and disproportionation profits are expanding. The aromatics - to - gasoline price spread is shrinking [64][71]. - **Reform Profits**: Both gasoline reform and aromatics reform profits are strengthening [79]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas plant maintenance plans are increasing. Port inventories in East China are stable at around 700,000 tons. The market is seeking support, and new plant startups may increase supply pressure [89][90]. - **Gasoline**: Asian gasoline profits are strong, waiting for domestic gasoline exports [91]. - **Polyester**: Demand is seasonally weak. Policy changes may affect the polyester market [97][107].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry in the short - term is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot contradictions in the corn market still exist, with the grain - selling progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. Port inventories are low, and there is a certain restocking demand among middle and downstream players before the festival. The short - term spot price remains relatively firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress is nearly half, with the progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4] - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 43.8%. The high pig inventory supports short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and replenish stocks in a rolling manner. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are cautious. Traders have not yet started large - scale strategic inventory - building and have restocking needs [4] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The grain inventory at southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventory and deep - processing corn inventory are both at low levels [4] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral, and the C03 - C05 spread favors positive arbitrage [4] - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig and egg - poultry breeding profits are in the red, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are also in the red [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the corn futures valuation is relatively high; from the perspective of absolute price, the corn futures valuation is relatively low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. The release of policy grains such as reserve corn, imported corn, and aged wheat has increased [4] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating. The short - term spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillating; Arbitrage: C03 - C05 positive arbitrage [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, the prices at various ports such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port, the market average prices in Heilongjiang and Shandong, the futures contract positions of different months (such as C01, C03, C05, C09), and the spreads between different contracts (such as C03 - C05, C05 - C09) through charts [6][8][12][18] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - selling Progress**: The report shows the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China through charts, and currently the channel supply has decreased [22][24] - **Port and Inventory Data**: Northern port inventory and southern port grain inventory are at low levels. It also presents data on feed enterprises' inventory days, feed monthly production, and deep - processing enterprises' corn inventory and consumption [40][46][69] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, as well as relevant data such as the number of laying hens and the number of parent - stock broilers in production [54][58][64] - **Deep - processing Industry**: The deep - processing corn consumption has seasonally rebounded, but the deep - processing corn inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has worsened, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production has declined, and the processing profit has decreased. The demand for starch in the beverage industry is poor, while the papermaking start - up rate is high but the profit has declined. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and the flour demand is weak [67][75][87][105] - **Futures Registration**: The report shows the number of corn futures registered warehouse receipts through a chart [113] 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The 2025/2026 corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered, and it presents the global corn production and its distribution, as well as the inventory - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [118][122][123] - **Export Situation**: US corn export sales have performed well, and it presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn through charts [125][126][130]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of oils and fats is neutral - to - bullish, with attention on weather. Demand is bullish, inventory shows a mixed situation (palm oil is under observation, soybean and rapeseed oils are tight), and the macro and policy environment is bullish. The investment view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels, and expect soybean oil to strengthen [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral - to - bullish, and weather should be monitored. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, South American dryness may affect soybean yields, domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally, there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil has entered the traditional production - reduction season [3]. - **Demand**: It is bullish. China is in the Spring Festival stocking period, followed by the Southeast Asian Ramadan stocking period. The US biofuel RVO has an uncertain impact, and domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - **Inventory**: Palm oil is under observation, while soybean and rapeseed oils are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory is high, but the overall situation in the producing areas is not as pessimistic as expected. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn affects biofuel and oil prices. The US biofuel policy is to be released in the first quarter, and Indonesia will increase export taxes for the B50 plan [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels. The MPOB December data may be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later. Soybean oil is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and Argentine weather. The key for rapeseed oil is when the supply - side contradiction can be resolved [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on soybean oil in the single - side trade. For arbitrage, go long on Y and short on OI, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads. Before the report is released, lightly go long on the volatility of P and Y [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The content mainly presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as various spreads such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 [5][9][14][15]. 3.3 Fundamentals of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided [19][23][29]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [32][36][37]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Information on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory is given [38][43]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: Data on Indian imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the Argentine soybean oil - Malaysian palm oil spread are shown [44][49]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Information on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit is provided [50][52][54]. - **Weather and Soybean Production**: Information on future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, is presented [61][64][70]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume are shown [75][79]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [89]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed in different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are shown [90][92]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report On January 9th, the A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% and reached above 4100 points, achieving 16 consecutive positive days and setting a new high in over 10 years. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, reaching a new high in nearly 4 months. Historically, there have been 6 times when the A - share turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan including this day. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.92% at 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%, the BeiStock 50 rose 1.05%, the STAR 50 rose 1.43%, the Wind All - A rose 1.18%, the Wind 4500 rose 0.69%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.88% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Trading Volume (billion) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 3134.3245 | 0.39 | 60.15 | 1777.40 | | CSI 300 | 4758.9221 | 0.45 | 254.69 | 6687.89 | | CSI 1000 | 7053.23 | 1.98 | 381.04 | 8129.1831 | [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Transaction | Index | Call Option Volume (million) | Put Option Volume (million) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (million) | Put Option Open Interest (million) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 6.23 | 1.78 | 0.40 | 6.50 | 3.82 | 0.70 | | CSI 300 | 13.66 | 6.03 | 0.44 | 19.64 | 11.26 | 0.74 | | CSI 1000 | 52.29 | 30.78 | 0.70 | 32.84 | 14.64 | 1.24 | [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis The report provides historical volatility and historical volatility cones for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the pulp industry is that it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a trading strategy of a unilateral oscillating operation and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by macro - commodity sentiment, with limited internal drivers. Supply shows some strength, demand is neutral, and inventory is also neutral. Overall, the pulp is expected to oscillate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply is strong. Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp is 710 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the offer for broad - leaf pulp Star is 590 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; and the offer for natural pulp Venus is 620 US dollars/ton, remaining flat [3]. - **Demand**: The demand is neutral. This week, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while the prices of other paper products are stable. In the fourth quarter, the overall paper production increased due to the peak demand season [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports is 200.7 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend [3]. - **Investment View**: The pulp is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the significant impact of macro - commodity sentiment and limited internal drivers [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate. For arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: The pulp futures have been oscillating this week. Affected by macro - commodity sentiment and with limited internal drivers, it is expected to trade between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaf pulp has increased, and the basis of coniferous pulp has changed. The external offer of coniferous pulp has also increased [6][14][16]. - **Position Change**: As of January 12, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts is 307109 lots, up 0.2% from last week, and the position of the main pulp futures contract is 215480 lots, up 4.3% from last week [18]. 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume is 3246000 tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume is 725000 tons, up 4.92%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume is 1765000 tons, up 33.88%; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume is 1490000 tons, up 55.69% [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp inventory in ports has rebounded, and a large number of new warehouse receipts have been registered. As of January 8, 2026, the port inventory is 200.7 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory is 10450 tons, up 4.3% [3][4]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are generally stable, with the inventory of 20 major countries at 46 days at the end of November [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while other paper prices are stable. In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The inventory of double - offset paper has increased, and the available days have also increased. The production cost of double - offset paper has increased, and the gross profit has decreased. In Europe, the demand for pulp has increased, and the inventory has decreased [39][48][62]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star has weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is basically stable [80].

【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场情绪降温，橡胶冲高回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场情绪降温，橡胶冲高回落 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、钢联、隆众资讯、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 | | | | | 橡胶主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要数据 | | 最 新 | 上 周 | 周度涨跌幅 | 主要数据 | | 最 新 | 上 周 | 周度涨跌幅 | | | RU主力收盘价 | 16030 | 15605 | 2 72% . | | 老全乳 | 15700 | 15250 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 出口退税取消，盘面价格回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC周度数据 | | | | | | PVC主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | | 主力价格（元/吨) | 4897 00 . | 4805 00 . | 1 91% . | | 中国产量(万吨) | 48 78 . | 48 39 . | 0 81% . | | | 近月价格 | 4574 00 . | 4492 00 . | 1 83% . | 产 量 | 电石法产量(万吨) | 34 34 . | 33 82 . | 1 56% . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution narrative in the non - ferrous metal sector has ebbed, leading to a decline after the sector's prices reached a high. The copper price is expected to stabilize and rise due to ongoing disturbances in the copper mine sector and positive signals of inflation recovery and economic stabilization in China. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the domestic surplus expectation gradually emerging. Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with significant uncertainties in Indonesian policies [9][93][201] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing price monitoring shows various trends in different non - ferrous metals. For example, the US dollar index is at 99.1 with a daily increase of 0.28%, a weekly increase of 0.69%, and an annual increase of 0.88%. Industrial silicon is at 8,715 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.64%, and an annual decrease of 1.64%. Carbonate lithium is at 143,420 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.09%, a weekly increase of 17.96%, and an annual increase of 17.96% [7] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are bullish as China's December CPI and PPI both turned positive, and the US December employment data was mixed, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. The raw material end is bullish with a tight copper mine supply. The smelting end is neutral with changes in smelting plant profits. The demand end is bearish as high copper prices pressure downstream industries. The inventory end is bearish with an increase in global visible copper inventory [9] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The copper price may stabilize and rebound due to ongoing disturbances in the copper mine sector and positive domestic economic signals [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for single - side trading, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are slightly bullish with positive market sentiment. The raw material end is neutral with a stable cost center and limited upside for processing fees. The smelting end is neutral with an expected increase in supply in January and possible shutdowns in February. The demand end is bearish with a slow recovery in galvanizing and a seasonal off - peak. The inventory end is bearish with an increase in domestic social inventory and a slow - down in the increase of LME inventory [93] - **Investment View**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the domestic surplus expectation gradually emerging [93] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading should be based on the oscillating trend, and an internal - external positive arbitrage can be considered [93] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are slightly bullish with expectations of a Fed rate cut and positive domestic economic data. The raw material end is slightly bullish with potential supply policy uncertainties in Indonesia and a seasonal decline in nickel ore imports from the Philippines. The smelting end is neutral with changes in production and profit. The demand end is neutral with an increase in stainless - steel production scheduling and a weakening demand for nickel sulfate in the new - energy sector. The inventory end is slightly bearish with an increase in LME nickel inventory [201] - **Investment View**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with significant uncertainties in Indonesian policies [201] - **Trading Strategy**: For short - term single - side trading, the price range should be considered, and chasing high prices is not recommended. There is no arbitrage opportunity currently [201]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Bullish. Recent supply reduction and supportive supply - demand conditions suggest a positive outlook [3]. - Soda Ash: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the glass supply side has seen a significant reduction. With the continuation of energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution policies, the expectations of supply reduction and cost support are strengthened. Although the price is generally strong, the medium - to - long - term pressure pattern remains. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable. Glass demand has resilience and supply reduction is obvious, while soda ash supply and demand are average [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bullish. The daily output of national float glass this week was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% from January 1st. The industry's start - up rate was 71.38%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from January 1st, and the capacity utilization rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from January 1st. Two production lines were shut down for cold repair this week, and there are still many unexpected shutdowns for maintenance at the end of the year, with short - term reduction expectations continuing. Due to policy continuation, glass supply is restricted and cost support strengthens [3]. - Demand: Neutral. Demand has some support. Recently, the phased shipment of glass manufacturers has been good, but the terminal demand support is limited, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited actual support for overall production and sales [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. The total enterprise inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a decrease of 2.37% month - on - month and an increase of 27.04% year - on - year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis weakened oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread strengthened oscillatingly [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Valuation has been significantly repaired [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year [3]. - Investment View: Bullish. Recent supply reduction continues, and supply - demand has support [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased significantly. This week's soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons, a rise of 8.11%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The resumption of maintenance enterprises has significantly increased supply, and it is difficult for supply to increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. Capacity expansion continues, and the medium - term oversupply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand has weakened marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has remained stable, while that of float glass has declined [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Inventory has increased significantly. The total factory inventory was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons from last Wednesday, a rise of 11.67%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons, a rise of 6.93% [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis rebounded oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread oscillated [4]. - Valuation: Bearish. Valuation is average [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year, and market sentiment switches quickly [4]. - Investment View: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, no action; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price strengthened. The main contract closed at 1,144 (+57), and the Shahe spot price was 944 (-24) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price oscillated. The main contract closed at 1,228 (+19), and the Shahe spot price was 1,199 (+77) [12]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. - Glass: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Output has decreased. The reasons for supply reduction are the same as those mentioned in the main views. The production profit has improved slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.00 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.60 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Real - estate mid - to - back - end completion data is poor. From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. Inventory has been reduced, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply has increased significantly, and the relevant output data is the same as that in the main views. The profit of soda ash plants has changed. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36%. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [36]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand has weakened marginally, with the daily melting volume of float glass declining and that of photovoltaic glass stabilizing. Inventory has increased significantly, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [37].