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聚酯数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to factors such as high gasoline profit rates and low pure benzene prices, which limit PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry shows good performance, and export demand may improve [3]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly by 120,000 tons. Ethylene prices cannot support the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. New device commissions put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The cost support from rising coal prices is weak, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - INE crude oil price increased from 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, to 457.4 yuan/barrel on November 14, 2025, with a change of 7.9 yuan [3]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1433.4 yuan/ton to 1376.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 57.41 yuan; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4388 to 1.4140, a change of - 0.0249 [3]. - CFR China PX increased from 826 to 832, a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 242 to 263, a change of 21 [3]. - PTA spot price increased from 4565 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan/ton, a change of 70 yuan; spot processing fee increased from 145.9 yuan/ton to 186.3 yuan/ton, a change of 40.4 yuan; the disk processing fee decreased from 280.9 yuan/ton to 251.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.6 yuan [3]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3892 yuan/ton to 3922 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan; MEG - naphtha increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 144 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan; MEG内盘 increased from 3941 yuan/ton to 3980 yuan/ton, a change of 39 yuan [3]. - PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 88.03%, 76.84%, and 64.20% respectively; polyester负荷 decreased from 89.07% to 88.69%, a change of - 0.38% [3]. - Among polyester products, POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged, FDY150D/96F increased by 30 yuan, 1.4D直纺涤短 increased by 60 yuan, and semi - light切片 increased by 35 yuan [3]. - The cash flows of POY, DTY, and涤短 decreased by 73, 73, and 13 respectively, and FDY现金流 decreased by 43 [3]. - The production and sales rates of long - staple fiber increased by 2%, and those of short - staple fiber increased by 9%, while the production and sales rate of polyester切片 decreased by 17% [3]. Device Maintenance Information - The restart time of a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has been postponed, and the specific restart plan is unknown [4].
股指期权数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:33
Report Information - Report Title: Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Review Index Performance - **Shanghai Composite Index**: On November 14, it rose and then fell, closing down 0.97% at 3990.49 points, hitting a 10 - year high intraday, down 0.18% for the week [5] - **Shenzhen Component Index**: Down 1.93% on November 14, down 1.4% for the week [5] - **ChiNext Index**: Down 2.82% on November 14, down 3.01% for the week [5] - **North - Star 50 Index**: Down 1.01% on November 14 [5] - **STAR 50 Index**: Down 2.72% on November 14 [5] - **Wind All - A Index**: Down 1.27% on November 14 [5] - **Wind A500 Index**: Down 1.6% on November 14 [5] - **CSI A500 Index**: Down 1.61% on November 14 [5] - **Total A - share trading volume**: 1.98 trillion yuan on November 14, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan the previous day [5] Index Details | Index | Volume (billion) | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 48.80 | 3038.4255 | - 1.15 | 1203.76 | | CSI 300 | 192.09 | 4628.1398 | - 1.57 | 4447.20 | | CSI 1000 | 271.97 | 4062.93 | - 1.16 | 7502.7567 | [3] CFFEX Index Option Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (million) | Put Option Volume (million) | Volume PCR | Option Open Interest (million) | Call Option Open Interest (million) | Put Option Open Interest (million) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3.34 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 7.19 | 3.10 | 0.76 | 1.34 | | CSI 300 | 6.85 | 0.64 | 11.50 | 9.85 | 0.86 | 11.20 | 4.36 | | CSI 1000 | 25.93 | 13.47 | 0.92 | 32.91 | 17.25 | 12.46 | 1.566 | [3] Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50**: Historical volatility and volatility smile curve are presented, with data on historical volatility cone including 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current value, as well as next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] - **CSI 300**: Similar to SSE 50, historical volatility, volatility cone, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility are provided [3][4] - **CSI 1000**: Historical volatility, volatility cone, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility data are shown [3][4]
蛋白数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:03
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 谨 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 ==== 18/19 - == ===== 19/20 ===== 23/24 ------20/21 - 25/26 RM1-5 1.500 65 2 1200 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 433 7 900 现货价差(广东) 300 豆粕-菜粕 602 23 盘面价差(主力) 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 12/28 03/24 10/27 11/27 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 巴西 7. 0596 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进国大学盘面毛利(元/吨) -- ====== 巴西1月 ===== 巴南2月 ===== 巴南3月 ===== 巴南4月 ---- 巴西5月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴勒月 ----- 巴勒月 ...
PVC周报(PVC):宏观情绪消退,盘面价格底部震荡-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:00
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报(PVC )】 宏观情绪消退,盘面价格底部震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号:F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退,盘面价格底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | (1)本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整,基本面难改供大于求格局,PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升,市场需求维持平淡。(2)本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在78.51%环比减少2.24%,同比减少0.46%;其中电石法在80.79%环比减少0.42%,同比增加2.98%,乙烯法在73.25%环比减少6.44%,同比减少9.02%。 | | | | (3)本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在6.369万吨,较上期增加2.046万吨。本周常规性检修增加,影 ...
【烧碱周报(SH )】:现货价格企稳,盘面震荡偏弱-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:51
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报(SH )】 现货价格企稳,盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号:F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳,盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | (1)本周检修有所减少,产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;(2)20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.8%,较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看,西北、东北、华南负荷均有上升,其中东北涨幅最大+27.9%至88.9%;华南+5.8%至89.1%。华北、华中有装置检修、减产, | | | | 开工下滑,华北-1.5%至76.5%,华中-3.0%至79.1%,其中山东-1.9%至87.2%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | (1)氧化铝开工有 ...
宏观金融数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:48
Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 and GC001 closed at 1.37 and 1.26 respectively, with changes of 5.30bp and 28.00bp compared to the previous value; DR007 and GC007 closed at 1.47 and 1.49 respectively, with changes of -1.09bp and 2.00bp [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.41, 1.58, 1.81 respectively, with changes of 0.00bp, 0.32bp, -0.16bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Thursday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Data - The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4628, 3038, 7235, and 7503 respectively, with changes of -1.57%, -1.15%, -1.63%, -1.16% compared to the previous day; the closing prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were 4614, 3034, 7208, and 7468 respectively, with changes of -1.7%, -1.3%, -1.7%, -1.3% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 4628.1, SSE 50 remained unchanged at 3038.4, CSI 500 fell 1.26% to 7235.5, and CSI 1000 fell 0.52% to 7502.8 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial and retail, pharmaceutical and biological, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, computer, machinery, and national defense and military industries led the losses [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1992.9 billion yuan, 1822 billion yuan, 1785 billion yuan, 1878.3 billion yuan, and 1796.5 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In October, economic data showed a weakening trend, with investment growth and real - estate prices accelerating their decline; from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with the growth rate falling 1.2 percentage points compared to September [7] - In terms of investment structure, real - estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points; infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.83 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.3 percentage points [7] - In October, CPI year - on - year growth turned positive to 0.2%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, driven by rising service prices, food prices, and gold prices [7] - The current macro - level is a mix of long and short factors. After the overall adjustment of the technology sector, the market lacks a core driving force. The market is divided on whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural market to a full - scale slow - bull market [7] - The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern of having a bottom support and facing upward pressure. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock - index's volatile adjustment, and new driving forces are awaited for the stock index to rise further [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount Data - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are presented in the table, with specific values such as 22.30%, 6.63%, 3.55%, 3.54% for IF [8]
国贸期货黑色金属周报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with potential for production reduction in the future. The coal - coke market has experienced marginal weakening in supply - demand, and coal prices may face downward pressure in November but with limited decline. The iron ore market has a weak fundamental situation, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [6][39][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: This week, the molten iron output stopped falling and rose slightly to 236.88wt (+2.66). The daily consumption of scrap steel remained stable, slightly lower than the same period last year. In the future, the overall production level tends to be reduced, and the molten iron output may gradually decline in the fourth quarter, with a possible slow slope. Some steel mills have production reduction plans in December [6]. - **Demand**: Seasonal steel demand is gradually slowing down on a weekly basis, and the steel demand data has started to weaken. This year's demand shows characteristics of rigid demand support, occasional speculative demand impulses, overall light demand, and rigid external demand. There is buying support when prices fall, but there is no driving force for price increases [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is being depleted, but the absolute inventory level is higher than the seasonal average. The overall supply - demand of the five major steel products is weak on a weekly basis. The inventory depletion is slow, which puts pressure on production reduction [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: This week, the basis of both hot - rolled and rebar decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 97, a weekly decrease of 9; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was 4, a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit of the long - process is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen below 39%, and the weekly decline has slowed down [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar. The production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [6]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The next macro - observation period is after early December. In the short term, the macro - expectation may be in a vacuum [6]. - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Observe and track industrial contradictions. In the future, the decline in steel production is the main industrial logic. Wait for the implementation of the production reduction logic [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Spot - futures: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of hot - rolled coil spot - futures [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel demand continues to decline seasonally. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 860.60 (-6.33), and the output was 834.38 (-22.36). The molten iron output has rebounded temporarily, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still falling, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline [39]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, and the quotation of trading enterprises has been lowered. The quotation of overseas coal has回调 [39]. - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply has decreased. This week, the daily average coke output was 109.2 (-0.5), and the coking profit was - 34 (-12). After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented on Friday, the coking profit has been repaired [39]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines continues to decline, but the decline has narrowed. The coke inventory is relatively healthy, and the whole - link inventory is being depleted [39]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost was over 1750, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance. The near - month contracts are at a certain discount [39]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96% (-0.87%), and the coking profit is - 34 (-12) [39]. - **Summary**: This week, there have been more macro - disturbances, and the black - metal sector has fluctuated downward. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke has weakened marginally. Coal prices may face downward pressure in November, but the decline is limited. If the supply remains low, the market may start the next round of replenishment around mid - December [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Focus on short - term trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Arbitrage: Consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [39]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipping data has rebounded by 51.6 tons per day to 465 tons per day, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume in China has declined. The arrival volume has reached its peak and started to decline [94]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has rebounded to 236.88 tons (+2.66), but the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to decline. The apparent demand of steel products has continued to decline. The inventory pressure is not large in the short term, but the apparent demand will remain at a low level under the influence of seasonal factors [94]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 188.71 tons this period. In the future, with stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [94]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect the molten iron output [94]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [94]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipping has little impact. The inventory will continue to accumulate. The rebound of molten iron output is mainly due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills. The inventory pressure limits the upward space of prices [94]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [94].
白糖数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the approaching of the new crop in the Northern Hemisphere and the listing of domestic cane sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly oscillating weakly [4]. - On the import supply side, the current import volume of raw sugar is relatively large, the pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports is gradually being released, and the import cost is between 5300 - 5400, which suppresses the futures market [4]. - On the domestic supply side, Yunnan sugar mills started the first pressing two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start concentrated pressing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure [4]. - However, the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, and the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the listing of domestic new sugar [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Data - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 0, with a change of 0, and the basis to 2601 is - 5470, with a change of 42 [4]. - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5860, with a change of 0, the premium is 100, and the basis to 2601 is 290, with a change of 42 [4]. - SR01 is at 5470, down 42; SR05 is at 5404, down 29; SR01 - 05 is 66, down 13 [4]. - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.114, down 0.0176 [4]. International Data - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ice raw sugar main contract is at 14.85, up 0.42; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 64.29, up 1.18 [4].
纸浆周报(SP):01合约出现交割利润,考虑了结12-1反套-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:44
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of pulp is bearish as Chile's Arauco company's import quotes show a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp, and China's pulp production in October 2025 rose by 10.2% month - on - month [4] - The demand is neutral to bullish as the production of major wood - pulp papers is basically stable, the price of white cardboard has increased significantly with a de - stocking trend, and other paper types remain stable [4] - The inventory is bearish as of November 13, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory reached 211.0 tons, up 5.1% month - on - month after a narrow de - stocking last period [4] - The investment view is to wait and see. The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit, and there is limited room for further increase. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy can be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company's October quotes show softwood pulp decline and hardwood pulp increase. China's pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 tons, up 10.2% month - on - month, indicating a relatively loose supply [4] - **Demand**: Major wood - pulp paper production is stable, white cardboard price rises with de - stocking trend, and other paper types are stable [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port inventory is 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase, changing from de - stocking to high - level inventory accumulation [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit with limited upside. Close the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy. For single - side trading, focus on old and new warehouse receipt situations; no specific arbitrage strategy is provided [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Hardwood pulp spot prices rose significantly, and deliverable softwood pulp maintained a positive basis. The pulp futures price has exceeded the import cost of deliverable softwood pulp, limiting further increase and increasing the probability of warehouse receipt registration [8] - **Spot Price**: Softwood pulp silver star price is 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; softwood pulp cloth needle price is 4980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp goldfish price is 4400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - **External Quotes**: In October, Chile's Arauco company's softwood pulp silver star quote was 680 dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp star quote was 540 dollars/ton [20] - **Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the total pulp futures contract position was 345935, up 1.37% from last week; the main contract position was 173670 hands, up 1.10% from last week [25] PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, pulp and wood chip imports increased. In October, total pulp imports were 295.20 tons, up 11.27% year - on - year; softwood pulp imports were 69.10 tons, up 12.54% year - on - year; hardwood pulp imports were 135.60 tons, up 7.79% year - on - year [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port pulp inventory was 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased, with 46 days at the end of September [4][41] - **Downstream Demand**: In October 2025, paper product production increased month - on - month. Double - offset paper production was 76.46 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month; copperplate paper production was 39.42 tons, up 2.4% month - on - month; household paper production was 86.06 tons, up 0.9% month - on - month; white cardboard production was 107.62 tons, up 1% month - on - month [49] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of November 13, 2025, total double - offset paper inventory was 189.93 tons, up 0.38% week - on - week. Production was 20.88 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week. Production cost was 4988 yuan/ton, up 1.7% week - on - week, and gross profit was - 345 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [63][67][71] - **Overseas Demand**: In October 2025, European softwood pulp inventory days were 26, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp inventory days were 27, down 1 day month - on - month. As of August 2025, US paper product capacity utilization was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down 0.04 month - on - month [74] PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shandong Russian needle basis was - 500 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week; the Shandong silver star basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week. The 12 - 1 month spread was - 566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week [83] - **Import Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, softwood pulp import profit was 57 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp import profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week [87]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:40
Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report from Guomao Futures Research Institute's Energy and Chemical Research Center [3][4] Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - The current values of the comprehensive Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West Coast of the United States, SCFIS - West Coast of the United States, SCFI - East Coast of the United States, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1329, 2600, 1417, 1504, and 2029 respectively [5] - The previous values are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1208, 2848, 1323, 1208, and 2029 respectively [5] - The percentage changes are -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, 10.02%, -8.71%, 7.11%, 24.50%, and 0.00% respectively [5] Futures Contracts - For futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., the current values, previous values, and percentage changes vary. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1380.7, a previous value of 1364.7, and a percentage change of 1.17% [5] - Regarding the contract positions, the current and previous positions and their changes are also provided. For instance, EC2606's current position is 1623, the previous position is 1567, and the change is 56 [5] - The current values of the monthly spreads (12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04) are 150.3, 612.0, and 461.7 respectively, with previous values of 112.8, 577.4, and 464.6 and changes of 37.5, 34.6, and -2.9 respectively [5] Market News - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026 [6] - Iran carried out a reported near - sea attack on Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1, which was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope, is actually heading directly through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6] Market Analysis - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [7] - In late November, the spot prices of different shipping companies vary: MSK quotes 2250, HPL quotes 3150, CMA quotes 3200, YML quotes 250, and OVE quotes 2600, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases [8] - It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 more price increases during the peak season, but the price increases announced by shipping companies in early December conflict with the current price differentiation in late November. The loading situation in November needs to be monitored to see if it can support the price increases in December. The peak price and time in December are uncertain [8] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]