Report Title - "【粕类周报】中美和谈，估值修复" [1] Report Information - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With China's expectation to purchase US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend. However, the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the distant future limit the upward space of the futures market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The estimated inventory-to-consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations. The supply and demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to be tight [4]. - As of October 25, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, lower than the same period last year and the five-year average. Pay attention to the relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [4]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the progress of far - month purchases is slow [4]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease. Pay attention to policy changes. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and downstream transactions are cautious [4]. - The downstream transactions and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and are expected to start decreasing in November. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level [4]. - Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - China has agreed to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans this season and at least 2.5 billion tons per year in the next three years, which is positive for soybean meal and negative for rapeseed meal [4]. 3.1.8 Investment View - The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [4]. 3.1.9 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and slightly upward; Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [31]. - The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased in the September report [37]. 3.2.2 Sowing and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - good rate data of US soybeans are presented, showing the trends in different years [46]. - The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [51]. 3.2.3 Crushing Volume - The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume data are presented, showing different trends in different years [58]. 3.2.4 Export - This week's US soybean export sales data was not announced. The historical data of US soybean export net sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China are presented [64]. 3.2.5 Import - The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost and crushing profit data of Canadian rapeseed are presented [71][74]. - The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are presented [78][80]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data are presented, showing the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and the low inventory of feed enterprises [81]. 3.2.7 Production and Sales - The data of the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented [92]. - The trading volume and pick - up volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [101][108]. 3.2.8 Price Difference - The price difference data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [113]. 3.2.9 Feed Production - The monthly feed production data are presented [114]. 3.2.10 Livestock and Poultry Breeding - The profit data of pig, broiler, and layer breeding, as well as the inventory data of livestock and poultry, are presented. The pig price has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious [116][124][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of PVC is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, PVC has no obvious driving factors and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of PVC remains high, demand is weak, cost support is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak both in reality and expectation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It has a bearish drive. The domestic PVC spot market has been slightly adjusted this week, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the market demand remains dull. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 78.26%, with the maintenance loss volume decreasing [3]. - **Demand**: It also has a bearish drive. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level. Exports have declined, but the export volume from January to August has increased cumulatively [3]. - **Inventory**: It's neutral. The inventory of PVC production enterprises has slightly increased, while the social inventory has slightly decreased [3]. - **Basis**: It's neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 128 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: It's bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes have changed this week, with the profit of the calcium - carbide method decreasing and that of the ethylene method increasing [3]. - **Valuation**: It's neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3]. - **Macro - policy**: It's neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, there is currently no suitable strategy [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has had small fluctuations this week due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving factors. The supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The fundamentals of PVC powder have changed little, and both the current situation and expectations are weak [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the northwest has rebounded [36]. - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [46]. - **Factory Inventories in Various Regions**: Inventories in various regions have decreased [57]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The average downstream operating rate, pipe operating rate, and profile operating rate are presented in the data, with the operating rates of some downstream industries showing improvement [71]. - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but exports have slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure, exports are difficult to increase significantly [79][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength, but attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - US game and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [8] - In the long - term, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an obvious repair, with relatively balanced increases in various maturity varieties. In the first half of the week, the repair of 3 - 7y Treasury bonds was more significant; in the second half, the repair of ultra - long - term yields was more prominent [4] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected this week but released a cautious signal, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut at the end of the year [4] - The China - US summit in Busan, South Korea reached a series of important consensuses in the economic and trade field, which was interpreted by the market as "good news exhausted", bringing a window period for bond repair and stock market adjustment [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), and the relationship between various interest rates and yields such as LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [10][12][18] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of Treasury bond futures for different maturities (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [44][52][59][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine restarts), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue to drive up prices. Otherwise, prices will remain low [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,550 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,350 yuan, up 550 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 79,300 yuan, with a decline of 3.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 80,720 yuan, down 3.33%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 80,780 yuan, down 3.42%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 80,480 yuan, down 3.25%; lithium carbonate 2603 is 80,320 yuan, down 3.21% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 944 yuan, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1380 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2180 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 7400 yuan, down 250 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 8825 yuan, down 250 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,940 yuan, up 135 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,850 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,300 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,950 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 230 yuan, with a change of 3170 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1420 yuan, unchanged; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1480 yuan, up 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons, down 3008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons, down 1630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons, down 1987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons, up 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,621 tons, down 20 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 80,623 yuan, with a profit of - 1205 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 85,678 yuan, with a profit of - 8291 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests unilateral and arbitrage to remain on the sidelines [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic disturbances and peak - season expectations are driving the EC main contract to operate strongly. Although the overall demand is neutral, short - term macro - level positives, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will continue to support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early November, MSK quoted $2300, HPL quoted $2150, OOCL quoted $2250, EMC quoted $2500, MSC quoted $2250, YML quoted $1700, and HMM and ONE quoted $1900 [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Sino - US trade policy relaxation has released positive signals, but the agreement is short - term and may not lead to significant changes in supply - chain strategies. The US government shutdown has also affected the implementation of tariff policies [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, with significant differences among alliances. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - term macro - positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to try long positions on the main contract at low prices, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [5] 3.2 Price - The report presents various price charts, including the European Line Index, the US West Line Index, the US East Line Index, and spot quotes from Maersk on the European line [9][15] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [18] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities are presented, as well as future delivery forecasts [21][27] - **Prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand ship price of container ships in different loading capacities [34][40] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, ships over 25 years old, and idle and retrofit ratios [51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances on the Shanghai - European Base Port route are shown [64][66] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed, and to - be - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage [74][75] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships and the average speed by loading capacity are provided [79] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships, including total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and idle capacity ratio, is analyzed [82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic commodities mostly rose first and then fell. Industrial products edged up, while agricultural products showed weak performance. Market risk appetite rebounded due to progress in China - US trade negotiations in the first half of the week, but the market was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the decline of the domestic stock market in the second half of the week. Precious metals led the decline [3]. - The commodity market will maintain a volatile trend with differentiation among varieties. Current macro - factors at home and abroad are mixed. The easing of China - US economic and trade relations boosts market risk appetite, and the increased economic downward pressure in the domestic fourth quarter opens a window for incremental policy. However, the Fed Chair's hawkish stance and uncertainties in future rate - cut paths, as well as unresolved US government shutdown issues and geopolitical uncertainties, may disrupt the market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **PMI and Its Influencing Factors** - **Review**: Domestic commodities mostly rose first and then fell. Industrial products slightly increased, and agricultural products were weak. The progress of China - US trade negotiations in the first half of the week drove up most commodities, while the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the decline of the domestic stock market in the second half of the week led to a weakening of most commodities, with precious metals falling sharply [3]. - **Overseas**: China and the US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, and the two sides reached a joint arrangement on economic and trade issues. The achievements mainly included tariff barrier reduction, relaxation of export controls, slowdown of targeted economic and trade games, and consensus on multi - field cooperation. The US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff, and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in October, but the Fed Chair's stance was hawkish. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept their policies stable [3]. - **Domestic**: The manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally and remained in the contraction range, indicating continued economic pressure in the fourth quarter. The decline may be related to factors such as the pre - release of some demand before the "National Day" holiday, the escalation of China - US tariffs, and slow policy implementation. In the future, the weakening of the PMI index shows a decline in market expectations and confidence, and policy support is needed. The central bank may continue to ease monetary policy, and the fourth quarter will see the advance release of next year's special bond and debt - resolution quotas [3]. - **Commodity Market Outlook**: The commodity market will maintain a volatile trend with differentiation among varieties due to the mixed macro - factors at home and abroad [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: The US has reached trade agreements with many major trading partners, including the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. Tariffs have been reduced to varying degrees, and there are also non - tariff terms such as procurement commitments and cooperation in various fields. For example, the tariff between the US and China has been reduced from 57.6% to 47.6%, and China will adjust counter - measures and suspend export controls for one year [10]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in October, but the Fed Chair's stance was hawkish, and the possibility of a December rate cut is uncertain. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, and the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Analysis**: The manufacturing PMI in October declined, was weaker than the seasonal level, and remained in the contraction range. The decline in real - estate sales growth and marginal weakening of exports may indicate a steeper economic downward slope. Policy support is needed, but considering the annual "GDP growth of 5%", the policy will be "moderately supportive" and more focused on laying the foundation for next year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and the polyester industry chain are presented in the high - frequency data. For example, on October 31, the operating rate of PTA was between 75% - 89% [39]. - **Real Estate and Automobile Sales**: The sales growth rate of 30 - city real estate in October turned negative, and data on automobile sales such as factory wholesale and retail are also provided [41]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: Data on the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, fruits, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices are shown [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment View: Bullish [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - Temporary Observation; Arbitrage - Long PP2601 and Short PL2601 [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the main contract of LPG futures strengthened, with the international LPG market price rising. The domestic supply decreased while imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand. The market confidence has recovered due to factors such as the expected increase in November import costs and the peak demand season in the far - month. [9] - The supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects of LPG show different trends. The supply is expected to decline this week, demand is gradually recovering, inventory shows a mixed trend, and the valuation of the LPG market is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the PN spread continuously below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking units and overseas fundamental changes. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated between 4170 - 4330 yuan/ton. The international crude oil price first rose and then fell, but the international LPG market had a good trading atmosphere, and prices increased. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 1 yuan/ton, in South China was 114 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3811, an increase of 1395 from last Thursday. [9] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 53.06 million tons (-1.19%), including 20.93 million tons of civil gas, 21.34 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.05 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The LPG arrival volume was 82 million tons (59.11%). Enterprises in East and South China had maintenance last week, leading to a decline in supply. Some maintenance units in the Northeast, Shandong, and East China resumed, but an enterprise in Shandong had maintenance at the end of the week, which may continue to affect supply, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to decline this week. [7][8] 3.3 Demand - In late October, the winter heating demand gradually emerged, and the LPG combustion demand gradually improved, with demand slowly recovering. In the carbon - four deep - processing aspect, the restart of the maleic anhydride unit downstream of n - butane in November may drive an increase in demand, but the profit of the deep - processing unit is under pressure, suppressing the rebound of raw material prices. For isobutane, the dehydrogenation unit started operation, and the demand side improved. Overall, the demand for carbon - four deep - processing is relatively stable. In the propane deep - processing aspect, demand increased month - on - month, and the operating rate returned to a high level, but the continuous loss of unit profit due to the significant increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure has dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises. [6][7] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 18.17 million tons (-2.47%), and the port inventory was 309.72 million tons (3.96%). Refineries promoted sales by reducing prices this week, and shipments improved to varying degrees. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, with stable market enthusiasm and a continuous decline in the storage capacity utilization rate. At ports, ships delayed by strong winds unloaded in a concentrated manner, resulting in a significant increase in imported resources. With a slight increase in chemical demand, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement, and port inventories showed an accumulation trend. [7][8] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 3.00 yuan/ton in East China, 120.20 yuan/ton in South China, and - 5.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4194, an increase of 383, and the lowest deliverable location was East China. [7][8] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - Operating Rate: PDH was 73.85%, MTBE was 56.50%, and alkylation was 44.30%. - Profit: The profit of PDH to produce propylene was - 580 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 128 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 453 yuan/ton. [7] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.28 (2.18%), and the PG primary - secondary month spread was 80 yuan/ton (-29.20%). Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices rebounded significantly this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread narrowed. [7] 3.8 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. - The China - US summit in Busan achieved positive progress, and the US made a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China to ease bilateral economic and trade relations. - The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and market news was constantly disturbing. - Europe and the US imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term positive factors for crude oil have been realized, and international oil prices are oscillating downward. The long - term supply - demand pattern of crude oil is expected to be loose. The investment view is that the oil price will oscillate [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans a small production increase in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market oversupply [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025, with EIA and OPEC showing an increase and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending October 24, while some refined product inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, and the International Energy Agency believes that without major geopolitical tensions, oil and gas prices will decline [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short - Term)**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil. However, the impact on the market is considered neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and plans to end quantitative tightening in December. Sino - US leaders reached some consensus on trade tariff policies [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production, demand entering the off - season, and the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the short - term oil price will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: After short - term positive factors were traded, international oil prices oscillated downward. As of October 24, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures prices all declined [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread strengthened, and the internal - external spread rebounded and widened [9]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [21]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [24][32]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and US weekly crude oil production reached 13.644 million barrels per day [42][54][66]. - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [77][87]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [104][113][122]. - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index oscillated [135]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [144].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities by buying on dips after stabilization [6]. - Medium - to long - term, due to factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue rising. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 31, 2025, compared with October 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.9%, London silver spot rose 2.6%, COMEX gold rose 0.9%, COMEX silver rose 2.1%, AU2512 rose 1.1%, AG2512 rose 1.7%, AU (T + D) rose 1.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 1.6% [5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios, from October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 16.3%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 33.8%, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 12.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.2%, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 10.1%, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 4.2% [5]. 2. Position Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11%, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85%, COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97%, COMEX silver non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% [5]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.41%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.20%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.14% [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.19%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the VIX increased by 3.13%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.26%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.98% [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 921.92 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.41% to 11441 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - The decline in market risk appetite, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the intensification of local geopolitical situations have led to a recovery in safe - haven demand, boosting the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices. Although Fed Chairman Powell said a December interest - rate cut is far from certain, the market still generally predicts it as the baseline scenario, providing support for the precious metal market. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the strong performance of the US dollar index, the internal differences among Fed officials, and the marginal easing of the US government shutdown, the short - term upward space for a unilateral trend in precious metals may be relatively limited [6]. 7. Medium - to Long - Term Outlook - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely cause the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices to continue rising [6].

杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木现货价格下跌，考虑逢高做空 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-03 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木远月合约偏弱运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 2025年9月，新西兰预计发运至中日韩印的原木数量为176.6万方，较上月增加10.0万方，月环比增加6.00%；2025年9月，新西兰预计发 运至中日韩印的船只数量为46条，较上月增加2条，月环比增加4.55%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，10月20日-10月26日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.44万方，较上周增加1.90%。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，截至10月24日，国内针叶原木总库存为284万方，较上周减少8万方，周环比减少2. ...