Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report In the short - term, with the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report earnings, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and various asset prices are expected to be in a volatile stage. Policy support and abundant macro - liquidity provide support for the market, but there are also factors that suppress price increases in different sectors [1]. Summary by Related Categories Macro - finance - **Stock index**: In the short - term, the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually stabilize [1]. - **Silver**: With multiple factors in play, the silver price may remain volatile [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the copper price has corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: There is limited industrial - side drive recently, and after the digestion of macro - positives, the aluminum price fluctuates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental weakness pressures the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The overall macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the LME zinc squeeze risk has decreased but still exists. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate, with high inventory still suppressing. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The short - term stainless steel futures may oscillate. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices for hedging [1]. - **Tin**: Considering the unrepaired raw material end and good new - demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, polysilicon production in November is decreasing, and it is affected by the spill - over of polysilicon [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The new energy vehicle peak season is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure [1]. Black metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Direct demand is good with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates price fluctuations [1]. - **Coking coal**: Coking coal is challenging the previous high, but there is uncertainty about whether it can break through. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot for hedging when the price rises [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: It still faces the dual pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short - term, but may rebound if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The agreement to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months may bring a loose supply expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The current price has fully priced in the selling pressure, and the downward space is limited, but the basis and price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have seasonal upward momentum in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the supply situation restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. It is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live pigs**: The short - term futures price may weaken following the spot price, and there is still pressure on slaughter in November [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and market sentiment has eased [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, it follows crude oil, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, with sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Natural rubber**: It is supported by raw material costs, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support of butadiene has declined, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose [1]. - **PTA**: The news of the "anti - involution" policy and production cuts have pushed up the price [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal - based cost support has strengthened, and polyester demand has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the cost closely, and the basis has strengthened with the rise of PTA price [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene has decreased [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and "anti - involution" [1]. - **PVC**: The market has returned to fundamentals, with reduced maintenance, more near - month warehouse receipts, and a weakening trend [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are plans for alumina production in Guangxi, less concentrated maintenance, and problems with warehouse receipt digestion [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1]. - **Container shipping (European line)**: The price has fallen to a low level, and there is a possibility of a rebound. It is entering the contract - changing stage and is expected to stop falling [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply has increased due to reduced maintenance and higher production. The demand is mixed, with alumina开工 declining and non - aluminum demand weak in some aspects, while other downstream industries show some improvements. Inventory has accumulated, and profits have decreased. The overall market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 24,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.5%. Most regions saw an increase in load, except for Central China [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. Alumina开工 decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The monthly开工 rate of lithium hydroxide in China in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall output was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bearish. Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 442,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.84% and a year - on - year increase of 52.42%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 25.75%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56% [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 95, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The weekly average gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17%. Liquid chlorine prices rose, and caustic soda prices fell, leading to a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The spot price is neutral, and the absolute futures price is low. The near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no unilateral or arbitrage strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - The futures market oscillated within a range. This week, the spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, while the futures price hit a new low. The liquid chlorine subsidy was less, and the liquid chlorine price rose to 350 yuan/ton. Chlor - alkali profits remained high, and factory开工 loads remained high. Demand reached the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons. In the future, the new maintenance intensity of alumina will increase, and the supply and demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose. The spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decline. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production start - up rhythm [6]. Part Three: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [29]. - **Device Loss and Production**: In the main production areas, maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [34]. - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits decreased [42]. - **Downstream Price**: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [45]. - **Alumina**: Alumina开工 recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the alumina开工 rate in Henan increased significantly. Alumina supply - demand balance was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and remained stable year - on - year [57][68]. - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum开工 remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - peak season, and开工 began to decline [69]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The开工 rate rebounded [78]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned or are expected to carry out maintenance in October and November [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: Sino-US trade negotiations have progressed, but the market's optimistic sentiment has declined as the outcome did not exceed expectations. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports remain optimistic. However, PTA processing fees have been compressed below 200 due to lack of anti - involution information. Industry profits are affected by over - capacity from new installations. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry may last until November, and attention should be paid to whether tariff cuts can boost domestic exports [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, with limited port arrivals and expected decline in overseas imports. New installations are pressuring prices, and the spot tightness due to low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. Coal price increases have not provided strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been restored. Tariff cuts from the Sino - US trade deal may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 458.9 yuan/barrel on October 30, 2025, to 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 17.45 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0054. PTA主力期价 rose by 16 yuan/ton, while the spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton. Spot processing fees decreased by 42 yuan/ton, and the PTA仓单数量 increased by 806 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 3 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased by 14 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and MEG内盘 decreased by 41 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Chain开工情况**: PTA开工率 decreased by 0.43% to 79.66%, MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 64.41%, and polyester负荷 increased slightly by 0.06% to 89.34% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices remained stable, while their cash flows increased by 35. The long - filament sales rate remained at 43% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased by 25, and the cash flow increased by 10. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 42% to 49% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased by 5, and the cash flow increased by 30. The chip sales rate decreased from 46% to 45% [2]. Device Status - An East China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with an expected bearish trend due to weakening costs [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of styrene are weak, leading to a decline in the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Multiple factors including supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies contribute to the bearish sentiment, while inventory and valuation are neutral [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The economic performance of styrene is poor. The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to about $249, and the spread between styrene and benzene has slightly widened to $132. Non - integrated production profits remain negative [4]. - **Demand**: Port inventories have decreased slightly, but market expectations are poor. As of October 27, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.14% month - on - month and 10.53% year - on - year. Due to profit contraction, there are more rumors of supply - side maintenance, and overseas demand is still declining [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 27, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.69% from the previous period, and the commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of inventory reduction for pure benzene and styrene, the arrival of the consumption off - season and pessimistic demand expectations have led to a pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $249, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $132 [4]. - **Valuation**: Crude oil prices have rebounded, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. The demand side has become an obvious constraint on styrene prices [4]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - policy is bearish, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [4]. - **Investment view**: Styrene costs are weakening, and it is expected to be mainly bearish, with an oscillating trend [4]. - **Trading strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude oil**: The US and Europe have imposed sanctions on mainstream Russian crude oil companies, and North American crude oil inventories have decreased [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene has rebounded, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The price of pure benzene has continued to decline due to the drag of derivative demand [13][24][36]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene downstream - ABS**: Supply tightening is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. Capacity utilization, production gross margin, and factory inventory show corresponding trends [50]. - **Styrene downstream - PS**: Inventory pressure has eased, and profits have slightly recovered [60]. - **Styrene downstream - EPS**: Inventory has accumulated, and production has rebounded [71]. - **Pure benzene - Aniline**: Production gross margin has recovered [81]. - **Phenol**: Port inventory has further declined [92]. - **Adipic acid**: Production load has declined [102]. - **Caprolactam**: Production load has declined, and inventory has decreased [113]. - **Household appliances**: Export demand has declined [122]. - **Overall situation**: Sino - US trade disputes have eased, but the pure benzene and styrene markets continue to decline. Styrene production profits are under pressure, with high total inventory. Supply has tightened in the short term, but downstream demand is weak [127].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The supply of pulp is relatively loose, with the import quotes showing a decrease in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp. The domestic pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 million tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous month [4]. - The demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not risen significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost the pulp price [4]. - The inventory has a narrow - range accumulation trend. As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period [4]. - The investment view is to adopt a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy for pulp futures. The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The import quotes from Chile's Arauco in October showed a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp. The domestic pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 million tons, a 10.2% month - on - month increase, indicating a relatively loose supply [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, other wood - pulp papers' production and prices did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, having no positive impact on the pulp price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a 0.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend [4]. - **Investment View**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy is recommended for pulp futures. The pulp futures are at an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and high pressure from old warehouse receipts, so it is advisable to wait and see. The risk to focus on is the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals remained stable, and some spot price bases increased slightly. The problem of old warehouse receipts was not resolved, suppressing the near - month contract prices. The 01 contract was close to the cost of Canadian softwood pulp warehouse receipts, with limited upward space [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week and down 100 yuan/ton from the previous month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week and down 50 yuan/ton from the previous month. The price of hardwood pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week and the previous month [16]. - **External Quotes**: In October, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the external quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco quoted 680 US dollars/ton for softwood pulp Silver Star, 540 US dollars/ton for hardwood pulp Star, and 590 US dollars/ton for natural pulp Venus [19]. - **Open Interest**: As of October 31, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 325,633, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week. The open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 155,284 lots, a 1.97% decrease from the previous week [24]. 3. Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 billion tons, a 11.27% increase. The softwood pulp import volume was 691 million tons, a 12.54% increase, and the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.356 billion tons, a 7.79% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port inventory slightly decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills remained stable. As of the end of August, the inventory of commodity pulp suppliers in 20 countries was 48 days, with 52 days for bleached softwood pulp and 46 days for bleached hardwood pulp [35][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types remained stable. In September 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 729 million tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase; copperplate paper was 385 million tons, a 2.7% month - on - month increase; tissue paper was 840 million tons, a 14.8% month - on - month increase; and white cardboard was 984 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while other paper types remained stable [41][48]. 4. Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian softwood pulp was - 332 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of Shandong Silver Star was 308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [82]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 3.58 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The import profit of hardwood pulp was 35 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors. The supply of PTA has slightly shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, the basis of PTA has stabilized, and the profit has continued to shrink. The price of PX has rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. The market is expected to mainly oscillate due to the lack of obvious driving forces [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the operating rate of PX devices has been stable, with the PXN expanding. It is bearish [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving has performed well recently. It is expected that the current peak season can last until November. It is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, with a 50,000 - ton increase in inventory this week. It is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, and the PTA profit has continued to shrink. It is bearish [5]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, and the processing fee of PTA remains below 200 yuan. It is bearish [5]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, the profit of the reforming device has declined, and the anti - involution news has disturbed the market, causing the absolute price of PTA to rebound. It is neutral [5]. - **Macro Policy**: On October 30 local time, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting. It is neutral [5]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral position should wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: North American crude oil inventories are at a recent low, and the US has imposed new sanctions on two Russian oil companies. The market fundamentals support oil prices, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a large drop in gasoline inventories, both slightly below the five - year average level. The refinery operating rate has risen from 85.7% to 88.6%. Crude oil and gasoline markets have strengthened under the tightening supply and geopolitical risks, but the reforming oil has performed relatively weakly [7][29]. - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventories are approaching a low point. North American refinery loads have declined, and gasoline cracking profits have strengthened. The premium of reforming oil to RBOB has narrowed, the octane number profit rate of the reforming device has increased, and the refinery's oil - blending efficiency has improved. However, the reforming oil performance reflects that the oil - blending demand has not fully followed up [11][17][29]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons**: The supply of xylene has increased, and the weakness of aromatic hydrocarbons has continued. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The price of pure benzene continues to suppress the disproportionation profit, and the profit of the STDP device is negative. Some producers have reduced the load of the reforming device due to the average profit of benzene [37][47][62]. - **PX**: It is the core of the price fluctuation in the polyester industry. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PX spot trading is active, the price has significantly rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand and geopolitical supply disturbances [58][67]. - **PTA**: Due to the large domestic PTA production capacity, the processing interval of PTA has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new production capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly widely used in the market [58][66]. - **Short Fibers and Bottle Chips**: They are in the production capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the "Belt and Road" [58][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, the port arrivals are still limited, and the import volume of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline. New device launches have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The coal price has risen, but it has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [87]. - **Gasoline**: The profit of Asian gasoline has significantly rebounded due to the reduction in domestic exports [89]. - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load remains optimistic. The production of polyester has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the export performance after the tariff adjustment. The domestic polyester export is still optimistic, but the industry profit is still restricted by the over - capacity caused by new device launches [73][96][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have fallen from short - term highs, and asphalt prices have declined overall this week. The supply of asphalt is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is neutral, and cost is neutral. The overall trend of asphalt continues to fluctuate with crude oil, showing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as neutral. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). This week, the overall supply slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Zhonghai Yingkou and intermittent production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Sinochem Quanzhou [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Shandong stimulates downstream purchases by lowering prices and there is catch - up work after less rainfall. The demand in East China is also weak, with low prices and low shipments. The overall market demand is slowly declining with the drop in temperature. However, the total domestic asphalt shipments this week reached 469,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.3%. Shipments in North China and Northeast China have improved [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The inventory of asphalt production enterprises has decreased this week, in line with last week's expectations. The inventory in most regions has declined, especially in Shandong. The social inventory has also decreased but does not meet last week's expectations. The social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly due to improved weather and increased demand for catch - up projects [3] - **Cost**: It is neutral. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. They first rose due to new US sanctions on Russia and upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, then fell due to doubts about the implementation of Russian sanctions, OPEC +'s planned production increase in December, and increased Iraqi oil exports in September, and finally rebounded due to positive EIA inventory data, positive signals from Sino - US and US - South Korea agreements, and the Fed's interest rate cut [3] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. With high supply and declining demand in the north affected by the rainy season, the peak season for asphalt is not prosperous, and its long - term trend continues to follow crude oil [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there are no opportunities. Key risks to watch include OPEC + production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [3] Part Two: Price - There are multiple price charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions from 2021 to 2025, including national and regional data [5][6][8] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: There is a chart showing the asphalt basis in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [14] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025, as well as production data in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [17][21][24] - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [29][33][35] - **Maintenance Loss**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [40] Part Two: Cost & Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [47][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [58] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [63][64][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, frequent macro - news disturbances have led to a significant decline in butadiene prices, deepening the market's pessimistic sentiment and causing a sharp drop in futures prices. Attention should be paid to the spot price adjustment rhythm and the price guidance of natural rubber [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. Although the natural rubber market was strong this period, it failed to drive the butadiene rubber market, and the price difference between the two varieties widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. The increase in external sales resources of raw materials and the continuous decline in the external market price led to a rapid rise in market bearish sentiment. Affected by the maintenance of Qilu and Yangzi's butadiene rubber plants and future maintenance expectations, the offers of some spot - tight brands in Sinopec and PetroChina and in East and South China were firm, but the rapid weakening of the cost side led to a further decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber were under pressure to be lowered, but the large price difference between brands was not significantly improved, and the low - price range transactions in the week gradually weakened. At the end of the period, affected by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - level partially alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but it had limited impact on boosting the spot market trading of butadiene rubber [5] 3.2 Price Data - **Butadiene (BD)**: The prices of butadiene from various manufacturers and in different markets showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli decreased by 8.06% week - on - week, and the price of Sinopec East China Yangzi decreased by 12.79% week - on - week [9] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's BR9000 decreased by 1.79% week - on - week. The market prices in different regions also generally declined, with the largest week - on - week decline of 3.69% in North China [8][9] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of SBR also decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec North China Qilu 1502 decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [9] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many butadiene devices in China were under maintenance or shutdown in 2025. For example, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical's devices were shut down, while some devices such as those of Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production [3][11] - **Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical's butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and Zhenhua New Materials' device was expected to be under maintenance in November [3][11] 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber was affected by device operations. The output of butadiene increased due to the resumption of some devices, while the output of butadiene rubber was affected by device maintenance [3] - **Demand**: The demand for semi - steel tires was mixed, with the replacement market for all - season tires being weak and the demand for snow tires growing. The demand for all - steel tires was generally weak, with low replenishment willingness from channel merchants [3] - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory increased, while the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in enterprises and traders decreased [3] - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China was neutral [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads between RU - BR, NR - BR, and the BR - SC ratio were bullish [3] - **Profit**: The production profits of butadiene and butadiene rubber were bearish [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan achieved positive progress, and the sanctions on two Russian refineries by Europe and the United States and India's re - planning of energy procurement plans had a neutral impact on the market [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: No trading strategy was recommended [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]