投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号: F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | 2025/6/10 | 3327.60 | 36. 47 | 3347.40 | 36. 60 | 775. 06 | | 8887.00 | 772. 20 | 8868. 00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2025/6/9 | 3324.9 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - **Bullish**: Jiao Coal, Coke, Ethylene Glycol [1] - **Bearish**: None explicitly stated - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most of the products, including stocks, treasury bonds, gold, various non - ferrous metals, building materials, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products [1] Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force on the stock index, with weak fundamentals and a relatively policy - vacuum environment. Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. Although there are positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but caution is needed due to the possible repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - Different factors drive the trends of various commodities. For example, asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space; the long - term upward logic of gold is solid, but it may fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by overseas variables in the short term, expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious of the repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Gold**: May oscillate in the short term, with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - **Yin**: Expected to continue to be strong in the short term, but beware of a pull - back [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and volatile macro - sentiment may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increased production pressure on the futures price, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the sustainability of social inventory reduction on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term oscillation following the macro - environment, long - term pressure from primary nickel surplus, pay attention to inventory changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term bottom - oscillation, long - term supply pressure exists, pay attention to steel mill production arrangements [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows improvement, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production scheduling drops rapidly, futures premium over spot, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Mine prices continue to fall, downstream procurement is inactive, and raw material inventory is high [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In the window period of switching from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand balance, no upward price drive is observed, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of iron - water peak, and supply may increase in June, pay attention to steel pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Short - term supply - demand balance, slight increase in production, acceptable demand, but heavy warehouse - receipt pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply surplus, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Glass Film**: Supply and demand are both weak, with the arrival of the off - peak season, demand weakens, and the price continues to be weak, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance resumes, direct demand is acceptable, but concerns about supply surplus resurface, and terminal demand is weak, price is under pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continues to weaken, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. It can still be short - sold, with the upper limit of the target price at 780 - 800 [1]. - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal, with the continuous decline of coal - entering - furnace cost, the price drops synchronously, expected to decline [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB released a May report with expected production + 3%, export + 17%, and inventory + 9%. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: A game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations of other oils, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of China - Canada negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key negative driving factors, beware of a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Affected by trade negotiations and weather premiums in the short term, with strong macro - uncertainty in the long term, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio [1]. - **Wheat**: Supported by the purchase - support policy, with tightening supply and increasing demand, expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Soybeans**: The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is mainly reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. The market lacks upward momentum, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: Demand is light at present, but the downward space is limited, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is abundant, demand is light, it is recommended to hold short positions or short after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the futures price is expected to be stable [1]. Energy - Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Affected by Sino - US calls, geopolitical situation, and summer consumption peak [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures - spot price difference has fully converged, raw material prices have fallen, and inventory has decreased significantly, expected to oscillate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber costs are closely related. Some factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, imports are blocked, and it continues to destock. It is expected to decline [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Styrene**: The speculative demand has weakened, the device load has increased, inventory has risen, and the basis has weakened, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Urea**: The daily production is still high, and the short - term export demand is expected to increase, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate remains high, inventory is increasing, and traditional downstream demand is weak, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: The support of maintenance is limited, orders are for rigid demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, and the off - peak season is coming, supply pressure increases, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **LPG**: The price is weak, in a narrow - range fluctuation, and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - **Three - cloud Line**: The market shows a strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly long - tested, and attention can be paid to 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

| | 指标 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 | -39 | 11 | 2500 1000 | | == | | | - 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | 天津 | -79 | 11 | 1500 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -139 | 31 | 500 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -119 | -9 | -500 09/21 10/22 | | | | | | | | 东莞 | -159 | 31 | | | M9-M1 | | | | | | 湛江 | -119 | 11 | ------ 2019/20 1000 | | ----- 2020/21 | ----- 2021/22 | | == | | | | | | 800 600 | | | | | | | | 防城 | -119 | 21 | 400 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest data on shipping derivatives, including freight rate indices, contract prices, positions, and month spreads. It also analyzes the impact of Sino - US trade relations on the shipping market and provides a trading strategy of holding the 12 - 4 calendar spread [2][5][8]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Indices**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both increased. The SCFI - US West had a significant increase of 27.19%, and the SCFIS - Northwest Europe soared by 29.62% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: All EC contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) showed positive growth, with the highest increase of 1.10% in EC2512 [5]. - **Positions**: Some contracts' positions decreased, such as EC2506 and EC2508, while others like EC2410 increased [5]. - **Month Spreads**: The 10 - 12 month spread decreased by 10.6, the 12 - 2 month spread decreased by 2.8, and the 12 - 4 month spread increased by 8.3 [5]. Trade - related News - **Tariff Adjustments**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [5]. - **Trade Frictions**: There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with disputes over compliance with agreements and plans for US sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The US negotiation team has internal differences, which complicate trade talks with China and Japan. A new round of Sino - US trade talks will be held in London on June 9 [7]. - **Chinese Official Visit**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Shipping companies are eager to raise prices in late June. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23,500 $/FEU, and the high - end (75% percentile) was 27,000 $/FEU. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential capacity shortages can push up freight rates [8]. - **Futures Market**: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upwards, especially for the near - month contracts of June and August [8]. Strategy - The report recommends holding the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 60.00% 76. 00% -16.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 ■T325加工费(右轴) t T325年演出 器周观金流 ·1.4D直线条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 10000 22500 4000 泽梯少利润 泽棉纱65/35 45S 中 ...

国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 站 服 热线 客 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/9 | 3324. 93 | 36. 30 | 3345. 70 | 36. 51 | 774.72 | 8909.0 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据目报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 466. 1 1264.8 | 474.3 1155. 2 | 8. 20 -109.59 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,PTA新产能顺利投产,下游聚酯工 厂再度释放减产言论,预估PTA去库存速度放缓,利空 | | | | | | | PTA行情。仓单数量上升且主力供应商排货偏慢,本周 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3734 | 1. 3352 | -0. 0383 | PTA现货流动性偏少,支撑本周现货基差,但6月中下 旬货源基差相对偏低。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 81 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - On June 9, 2025, the prices of methanol in multiple regions increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest was low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices. Downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production increased by 200 to 285,678, and the domestic operating rate rose by 0.06 to 88.74. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 68.73 [1] Inventory - Both enterprise and port inventories remained unchanged at 354,950 and 522,960 respectively [1] Demand - The number of pending orders remained unchanged at 249,892 [1] Operating Rates of Related Products - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, methyl chloride, MTBE, etc. remained unchanged. The operating rate of formaldehyde in Shandong decreased by 10 to 910 [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of acetic acid and methane chloride decreased by 30 and 170 respectively, while the price of MTBE increased by 60 [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 | - | | --- | | 糖 | | 1 国内 | | 小 库存 | 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 23/24 - 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 24/25 2400 800 2023 -- 2022 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 11月 5月 10月 1月 2月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ------ SR2009 ==== SR2109 SR2109-SR2201 ---- SR2309-SR2401 -- SR2209-SR2301 600 1200 -- SR2309 SR2409 SR2509 SR2209 SR2409-SR2501 SR2509-SR2601 400 800 200 400 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 国贸期货研究院 2025/06/10 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM,公开新闻整理 100000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 60250 50 4000 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 58650 50 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 3000 碳酸锂2506 60540 0. 2% 碳酸锂2507 60700 -0.16% 40000 碳酸锂2508 -0. 2% 60980 碳酸锂2509 1000 60960 -0. 33% 20000 碳酸锂2510 61140 -0. 23% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 628 2 46 (Li20:5 5%-6%) 种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 60831 N 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -1421 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 64355 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6439 行业 西藏矿业降价75№继续抛售锂资产。6月2日， ...