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纸浆数据日报-20251218
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 03:01
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年12月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5440 | 0. 78% | 1. 49% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0. 00% | 1.82% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5532 | 0.62% | 1.69% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5506 | 0.69% | 1. 29% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 680 | 2.94% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5559 | ...
瓶片短纤数据日报-20251218
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 03:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes in supply or demand, PTA plants maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. The spread between PX and mixed xylene has widened to $120, leading Korean manufacturers to cut STDP operations and plan to shut down relevant facilities in the second half of December. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises have improved economic benefits due to self - sufficiency in raw materials. New polyester installations keep the polyester load at a high level, PTA consumption is high, and market hoarding willingness increases, causing the basis to strengthen rapidly. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low - to - medium inventory levels and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4620 to 4605, a change of - 15; MEG domestic price increased from 3634 to 3667, a change of 33; PTA closing price increased from 4668 to 4684, a change of 16; MEG closing price increased from 3700 to 3758, a change of 58; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6325 to 6340, a change of 15; short - fiber basis decreased from 152 to 139, a change of - 13; 1 - 2 spread remained unchanged at 24; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5300 to 5275, a change of - 25; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1025 to 1065, a change of 40; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5653 to 5677, a change of 24; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5653 to 5677, a change of 24; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5753 to 5777, a change of 24; outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 750; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 486 to 511, a change of 26; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3945 to 3930, a change of - 15; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16290; cotton 328 price remained unchanged at 14715; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1534 to 1524, a change of - 10; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7000; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 633 to 634, a change of 2; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7606 to 7515, a change of - 91 [2] Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 26 to 6118. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories mainly negotiated prices, trader prices slightly increased, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and factory sales were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6080 - 6440 RMB/ton, in the North China market was 6200 - 6560 RMB/ton, and in the Fujian market was 6120 - 6320 RMB/ton. The mainstream transaction price in the East China market increased by 5 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - Bottle chips: Aggregate costs increased, production manufacturers mainly negotiated prices, trader prices were warm, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were average [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun staple fiber weekly load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 46.00% to 66.00%, an increase of 20.00%; polyester yarn weekly startup rate remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged at 51.10% [2][3]
碳酸锂数据日报-20251218
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 02:59
种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 104094 H 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -8401 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 98869 外购锂云母精矿利润 -5595 行业 12月16日,根据《矿产资源法》《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》等相关要 官春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证子以注销。目前,宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的27宗采矿许可证进行 期(30个工作目)满后予以公告注销。注销后,生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 十 中 求方面,终端(储能+新能源车)旺季持续,材料端排产基本持平,社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅,供给方面,12月排产小幅 叠加宜春市拟取消27宗已到期矿山采矿权许可证,虽对基本面影响有限,但对情绪产生提振。整体看,需求形成碳酸锂价 叠加市场情绪提振,建议中期偏多对待。事件型的上涨属短期行情,短期有回落风险,建议投资者谨慎追高。 免 贡 告申的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不拘成个人投资政 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需 ...
蛋白数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 06:03
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 600 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 供给方面,根据CONAB数据,预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1. 776亿吨。截至12月5日,巴西大豆播种率为90. 3%,上周为88%,去年同 期为94.1%,五年均值为89.8%。根据BAGE,截至12月3日,阿根廷大豆播种进度44.7%,上周值36%。去年同期50%。根据天气预报,短期 无明显天气问题:12-1月国内大豆、豆箱预期季节性去库,传海关延迟放行25天,增加国内对明年一季度豆精供应的纽优,国内进口大 豆开始拍卖,成交溢价高,关注后续拍卖情况。需求方面,畜禽短期预期维持高存栏,产能去化尚不明显,支撑饲用需求,但目前养殖 | 11 结 | 利润呈现亏损,国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重。或影响远月供应;豆粕性价比有所降低:近期豆粕下游成交正常,提货表现良好。 库存方面,国内大豆、豆粕库存处于历史同期高位,豆粕库存去化慢,现货供应压力0较大。预期12-1月加速去库;本周饲料企业豆粕 | | --- | --- | | | 库存天数增加; 整体来说,美豆出口疲软,南美天气暂无明显炒作 ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 06:01
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate of the European route has increased, with the freight rate center in late December rising by over $200 compared to early December. The leading shipping companies' price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. The supply - demand situation shows that the seasonal stocking in Europe has increased the cargo volume and the shipping companies' loading rate. The weekly average capacity of the European route has shrunk in late December, and the effective supply is not overly loose. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has made limited progress, and the previous extremely pessimistic expectations in the market are gradually being revised, driving the market to fluctuate upwards. However, the strategy suggests short - selling the 02 contract with a small position at high prices. [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1506, 1118, 1780, 924, 2652, 1538, 1510, and 2737 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1398, 1115, 1550, 960, 2315, 1400, 1509, and 2300, with the respective growth rates being 7.79%, 0.29%, 14.84%, - 3.75%, 14.56%, 9.86%, 0.07%, and 19.00%. [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the current values are 1290.0, 1462.4, 1041.2, 1631.5, 1686.8, and 1112.7 respectively. The previous values are 1306.7, 1479.9, 1053.8, 1649.8, 1746.0, and 1149.7, with the growth rates of - 1.28%, - 1.18%, - 1.20%, - 1.11%, - 3.39%, and - 3.22%. [5] Shipping Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 2305, 1351, 4711, 2566, 32483, and 19928 respectively. The previous positions are 2335, 1441, 4739, 2724, 33065, and 19657, with the changes of - 30, - 90, - 28, - 158, - 582, and 271. [5] Shipping Contract Month - to - Month Differences - The month - to - month differences of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are currently - 55.3, 518.8, and 574.1 respectively. The previous values are - 96.2, 500.1, and 596.3, with the changes of 40.9, 18.7, and - 22.2. [5] Market News and Trends - CMA CGM has announced that its INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, which is seen as a significant step in the large - scale return of container ships to the Red Sea route. The traffic through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. The FEWB route in December has a low blank sailing rate of 0.9% and reduced capacity due to ship maintenance. Ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries. [6] EC Market Review - The EC market is in a downward trend. The spot prices in early December from MSK, HPL, OOCL, CMA, EM3, QNE, and MSC are $2500, $2350, $2300, $350, $3100, $2450, and $2450 respectively. In late December, the prices from MSK, HPL, and CMA are $2400, $2050, and $350. MSK plans to raise the price to $3500 in January. [7] Market Logic and Strategy - In the spot market, the PA alliance's low - price cargo collection in the early stage led to a large number of "rolled cargoes". The blank sailing on the FE3 route in week 51 alleviated the cargo - collection pressure, and the freight rate stabilized at $2400. The leading shipping companies' price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, the seasonal stocking in Europe has increased the cargo volume, and the shipping companies' loading rate has improved. The weekly average capacity of the European route has shrunk in late December, and the effective supply is not overly loose. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has made limited progress, and the previous extremely pessimistic expectations in the market are gradually being revised. The strategy is to short - sell the 02 contract with a small position at high prices. [9][10]
黑色金属数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 05:57
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices had a small rebound on Tuesday, with the futures price center slightly rising, but the spot price increase was limited, and the trading volume of building materials spot trade decreased month-on-month. The current supply-demand structure shows weak supply and demand, and the valuation is relatively low. It is not recommended to chase short positions. There is some support at the low price level, and it is necessary to wait for production cuts and observe the start of winter storage replenishment [2][3][5] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are under pressure, and the upward resistance remains strong. Although the double-control policy boosts the price sentiment, the steel price pressure pattern remains unchanged, the direct demand weakens, and the mid-term oversupply pressure persists. Recently, the supply and demand of manganese silicon are weaker than that of ferrosilicon, and the inventory accumulates significantly [5] - The spot auction of coking coal and coke has improved. The spot market has improved, with a decrease in auction flow and mixed price changes. The futures market is in a state of entanglement, and it is more likely to continue to wait for the improvement of the spot market after the rebound. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [5] - The molten iron output has dropped again, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise under the influence of supply and demand, and the price is difficult to improve. It is expected that the molten iron will stabilize at the end of the month and recover in January, and the decline of iron ore price will slow down [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Futures Market: On December 16th, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, etc., and near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc., all showed different degrees of increase. The price center of futures contracts on Tuesday had a slight upward shift [1] - Spot Market: The spot prices of Shanghai thread steel, Shanghai hot-rolled coil, etc., also showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged. The spot price followed the increase to a small extent, and the trading volume of building materials spot trade decreased month-on-month [1][3] - Strategy: Treat the single-side at a low level in a volatile manner; conduct rolling operations for the spot-futures positive spread of hot-rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [6] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market Situation: The double-control policy boosts the price sentiment, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The steel price pressure pattern remains unchanged, the direct demand weakens, and the mid-term oversupply pressure persists. Recently, the supply and demand of manganese silicon are weaker than that of ferrosilicon, and the inventory accumulates significantly [5] - Strategy: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on manganese silicon [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Market: The market still has expectations of price cuts, but the trade price has basically covered it. On Tuesday, the spot market improved, with a decrease in auction flow and mixed price changes. The overall market trading situation has not improved significantly [5] - Futures Market: The futures market on Monday was volatile and strong. After the steel export license system was officially announced on Friday night, the coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded after pricing in the expectation of six rounds of price cuts, showing signs of stabilization, and then fell into a shock [5] - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [6] Iron Ore - Market Situation: The molten iron output has continued to decline to about 2.29 million tons, and there are no signs of stabilization. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price is difficult to improve. It is expected that the molten iron will stabilize at the end of the month and recover in January, and the decline of iron ore price will slow down [5] - Strategy: Hold the previous short positions and wait until the lower limit of the range [5]
日度策略参考-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 05:55
Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].
纸浆数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 05:53
纸浆价格数据 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 | 日环比 | | 2025年12月16日 | | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月16日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 针叶浆银星 | SP2601 期货价格 | 5398 | -1.75% | 0. 22% | 现货价格 | | 5600 | 0.00% | 1.82% | | SP2609 | (元/吨) | 5498 | -1.79% | 0. 77% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | SP2605 | | 5468 | -1.87% | 0.07% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | 上期价格 | | 本期价格 | | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 智利银星 | ...
碳酸锂数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 05:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand from the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) remains strong during the peak season, with the material production schedule basically flat and the flow of social inventory from upstream to downstream to the terminal being smooth. On the supply side, the production schedule in December has a slight increase, but the tight spot supply of spodumene restricts a significant resumption of production on the supply side. Overall, demand provides medium - term support for the lithium carbonate price, but there is significant pressure around the key level of 100,000 yuan [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 95,850 yuan with a daily increase of 2,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 93,350 yuan with a daily increase of 2,000 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2601 - 2605 range from 98,740 yuan to 100,600 yuan, with price increases between 0.78% and 1.35% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,248 yuan with a daily increase of 25 yuan; lithium mica prices vary according to different Li₂O contents, and the prices of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also vary by Li₂O content [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 39,845 yuan, 162,800 yuan, 146,000 yuan, and 145,700 yuan respectively, with corresponding price increases [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,500 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 4,750 yuan with a change of 1,160 yuan; and there are also price spreads between near - month and consecutive contracts [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 111,469 tons with a decrease of 2,133 tons, including 19,161 tons in smelters (a decrease of 1,606 tons), 42,738 tons in downstream (a decrease of 957 tons), and 49,570 tons in other (an increase of 430 tons); the daily registered warehouse receipts are 15,286 tons with a change of 26 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 99,567 yuan with a profit of - 5,047 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 96,908 yuan with a profit of - 4,739 yuan [3] Industry News - The national new - energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" and accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity. During the peak summer period this year, the peak call of new - energy storage exceeded 30 million kilowatts [3]
聚酯数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 05:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in crude oil prices led to a drop in PTA prices, but the spot buying sentiment was good, and the PTA inventory continued to decrease, causing the spot basis to rise [2]. - The gasoline crack spread declined, but the PX price remained strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite the lack of significant changes in fundamentals, PTA plants maintained high - load operation, and PX consumption remained stable [2]. - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, providing additional support to the polyester demand [2]. - The coal - based ethylene glycol plants' return and new plant commissioning increased market supply pressure, and with the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price was hard to get effective support [2]. - The increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand, supporting the downstream weaving sector to maintain a high load [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 436.5 yuan/barrel on December 15, 2025, to 430.5 yuan/barrel on December 16, 2025, a decrease of 6.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC increased from 1455.9 yuan/ton to 1539.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.60 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.4590 to 1.4921, an increase of 0.0331 [2]. - CFR China PX price decreased from 833 to 827, a drop of 6 [2]. - PX - naphtha spread decreased from 284 to 281, a decrease of 3 [2]. - PTA主力期价 increased from 4628 yuan/ton to 4668 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货价格 decreased from 4620 to 4590, a decrease of 30.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 176.6 yuan/ton to 182.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA盘面加工费 increased from 184.6 yuan/ton to 260.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA仓单数量 decreased from 137993 to 136697, a decrease of 1296 [2]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3651 yuan/ton to 3700 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha decreased from (157.06) yuan/ton to (157.25) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 3646 to 3634, a decrease of 12.0 [2]. - MEG主力基差 decreased from - 16 to - 27, a decrease of 11.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained at 86.48% [2]. - PTA开工率 remained at 74.77% [2]. - MEG开工率 remained at 60.66% [2]. - 聚酯负荷 remained at 88.41% [2]. 3.3 Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6335 to 6300, a decrease of 35.0 [2]. - POY现金流 decreased from (87) to (92), a decrease of 5.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6555 [2]. - FDY现金流 increased from (367) to (337), an increase of 30.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7690 [2]. - DTY现金流 increased from 68 to 98, an increase of 30.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 increased from 44% to 67%, an increase of 23% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 price remained at 6325 [2]. - 涤短现金流 increased from 253 to 283, an increase of 30.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 67% to 42%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 半光切片 price decreased from 5495 to 5475, a decrease of 20.0 [2]. - 切片现金流 increased from (27) to (17), an increase of 10.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 59% to 67%, an increase of 8% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, which was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2].