Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 3, 2025, SP2601 was 5238, down 1.32% day - on - day and 1.17% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5414, down 1.42% day - on - day and up 1.65% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5222, down 1.36% day - on - day and 1.47% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.80% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.92% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.19% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, down 3.90% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 11.11% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, down 4.62% month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Import costs decreased. For example, Chilean Silver Star's import cost decreased from 6289 to 6046, a 3.87% decline [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The shipment of pulp to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, up 20.70% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.1 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% increase. The inventory showed a slight accumulation trend [1]. - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid procurement. Among the main finished paper products, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, while the output of other paper types remained stable [1]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: The Russian Needle basis was - 14, with a quantile level of 0.67; the Silver Star basis was 786, with a quantile level of 0.958 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 154, with a quantile level of 0.808; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 437, with a quantile level of 0.219 [1].

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-08 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-06 02 09 01 05 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report [4] Group 2: Freight Index Data - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 2073, 1118, 5172, 1718, 6243, 1587 respectively, with corresponding increases of 30.68%, 0.92%, 57.92%, -0.12%, 45.73%, 20.50% [5] - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1252 and 3061 respectively, with increases of 0.40% and 31.49% [5] Group 3: Freight Futures Data - For freight futures contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., the current values, previous values, and their corresponding increases or decreases are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1894.1, a previous value of 1834.8, and an increase of 3.23% [5] - The current positions and their changes of these contracts are also provided. For instance, EC2506's current position is 10553, with a decrease of 484 from the previous value [5] - The current values of month - spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) are 761.2, -200.3, 357.4 respectively, with changes of 32.3, -19.1, 29.8 [5] Group 4: Trade Friction Information - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6] - There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with Trump accusing China of violating the agreement, and the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6] - The EU is preparing "counter - measures" due to the US increasing steel tariffs to 50% [7] - The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - The market shows a trend of being volatile and stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8] - Spot prices: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an eagerness to increase prices [8] - Futures prices: The main contract has a significant decline due to the change in the expectation of US - line rush shipments. It shows a volatile downward trend affected by news about Trump's trade policy [8] Group 6: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is entering a period of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. It is necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profits [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the near - month non - main contracts have rebounded, and there are safety inspection voices in the main production areas. The short - term may see a rebound, while the medium - term strategy is still high - selling [6]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are under pressure due to macro - level negatives. Their prices are expected to be mainly under pressure [7]. - For iron ore, the off - season effect is gradually being realized, and there is still room for the price to fall [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2905 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan (-2.12%); HC2601 at 3045 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%); J2601 at 658.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (-1.42%); JM2601 at 735.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-3.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-1.18%); HC2510 at 3052 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.04%); J2509 at 695.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-1.14%); JM2509 at 719 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan (-3.03%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On June 3rd, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was 23 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was 17 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM2509 - 2601 was - 16.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan, up 9 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.81, up 0.01; the rebar disk profit was <73.18, down 17.78; the coking disk profit was 342.73, up 0.31 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, Shanghai rebar was 3080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 96.3, down 0.5. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Rizhao Port: PB was 728 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: On June 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 108 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; RB main contract was 152 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; I main contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract was 252.13 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; JM main contract was 216 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. Macro - environment is uncertain, and there may be a short - term policy vacuum. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse market expectations, but relevant information is lacking. It is necessary to maintain the idea of selling hedging or spot pre - sale [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to fall, and the futures black - chain index is at a new low. The 07 contract of coking coal has increased in position and price, and safety inspections are reported in the main production areas. The market is affected by overseas tariffs, and the cost curve of coking coal is unclear. Short - term rebound may occur, and medium - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron has reduced supply, weakened direct and terminal demand, and weakened cost support. Manganese silicon has a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, but supply may increase marginally, and costs are also moving down. Both are under price pressure [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore shipments are gradually recovering, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. Steel demand is weakening seasonally, and iron water production is declining. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit on iron water production and the stability of steel exports [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, do well in hedging and open - position management, and conduct appropriate inventory rotation. For arbitrage positions, the coil - to - rebar spread has temporarily stopped losing [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term may see a rebound, and the medium - term strategy is high - selling [9]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Short - sell on rallies due to the repeated Sino - US trade negotiations, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 负反馈交易，产业价格承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-03 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.77万吨，比22日+0.64%。行业开工率为76.01%，比22日+0.68个百分点；产能利用率为78.62%，比22 | | | | 日+0.42个百分点。本周2条产线复产点火，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，供应量呈现增长趋势。下周1条产线存在冷修预期，产线点火计划尚 | | | | 不完全明确，预计下周产量或将下降。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求或边际下滑。不过由于中美贸易谈判顺利且国内政策利好影响逐步释放，需求亦有支撑。中期地产颓势难挽， | | | | 竣工数据同 ...

国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-6-3 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色及新能源周报】 消费淡季来临，有色板块震荡偏弱 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 | 01 | 02 | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属价格监测 | 铜（CU） | 锌（ZN） | | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | | 镍（NI） | 工业硅（SI） | 碳酸锂（LC） | | | 多晶硅（PS） | | 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、国贸期货研究院 02 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - **Demand**: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - **Inventory**: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - **Profit**: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - **Valuation**: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - **Macro and Policy**: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - **Basis/Spread**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - **Profit**: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - **Summary**: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - **Inventory**: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - **Profit**: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/3 | 指标 | | 5月30日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 日照 | 12 | -26 | 2500 1000 | | | ----- 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 | | | - 23/24 | - 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -18 | -16 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | | | -68 | -6 | 500 | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -38 | -6 | -500 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 -11/22 | | 173 02/23 | 03/25 | 04/2 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Price and Performance Price Tracking - On May 30, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2508, AG2508, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $3298.75/oz, $33.13/oz, $3322.40/oz, $33.25/oz, 771.80 yuan/g, 8218 yuan/kg, 767.80 yuan/g, and 8187 yuan/kg respectively [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the price changes were 0.8%, -0.1%, 0.8%, -0.2%, 1.0%, -0.1%, 0.9%, and 0.0% respectively [5]. Spread and Ratio - On May 30, 2025, the spreads and ratios such as gold TD - SHFE active price, silver TD - SHFE active price, gold and silver internal - external spreads, SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios, etc. are presented in the report [5]. - The changes compared with May 29, 2025 varied, with the largest increase of 30.6% in the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread and the largest decrease of 19.14% in COMEX gold non - commercial short positions [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions - As of May 27, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV are provided [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the changes in non - commercial positions of COMEX gold and silver ranged from - 19.14% to 6.22% [5]. Inventory Data - On May 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17,247 kg, with no change compared to May 29, 2025; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,066,885 kg, a 2.99% increase [5]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 38,789,194 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 496,007,980 troy ounces, a 0.43% decrease [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On May 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a 0.08% decrease compared to May 29, 2025 [5]. - The US dollar index was 99.44, a 0.08% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, a 0.77% decrease; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, a 0.45% decrease [5]. - The VIX was 18.57, a 3.18% decrease; the S&P 500 was 5911.69, a 0.01% decrease; NYWEX crude oil was $60.79, a 0.21% decrease [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy Short - term Logic - Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50% and the EU's response, along with the escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, have led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [5]. - The slowdown of US PCE in April and consumer inflation expectations in June have increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the weak operation of the US dollar index also supports precious metal prices [5]. - However, due to the uncertainty and recurrence of tariff negotiations, the driving force for precious metal prices may weaken if the negotiations ease [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the backdrop of the trade war, the US economy still faces the risk of "stagflation," and the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates in the second half of the year [5]. - With the intensification of great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, global central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening the monetary attribute of gold, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]. - The strategy suggests continuous low - buying allocation [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【 一 国贸 期货 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目 务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可, 等播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况, 险,入市需谨慎。 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 -58. 00% 111.00% 53.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 ■T325加工费(右轴) t T325年演出 (探坝) 太原保密 舞短坝金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 14 ...