1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is under pressure but the downside space is narrowing. The butadiene market is facing increasing fundamental pressure, with supply expansion outpacing demand growth in the medium to long term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Views Supply - Shandong Weite, Taihang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants continued maintenance. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,000 tons, a 5.12% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a 3.76 - percentage - point decline [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. Some tire companies increased production of winter tires, but overall shipment was below expectations. Substitute demand remained high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintained a year - on - year high growth rate. As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 2.29% [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation is 11,000 yuan/ton [4]. Viewpoint - In the short term, it is under pressure and the driving force is neutral downward, but the downside space is narrowing. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are under increasing pressure, mainly from high supply. The macro - environment has a limited impact on the commodity market [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, short at high levels within the static valuation range, with an upper pressure of 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and a lower support of 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Views Supply - The weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was estimated to be 100,900 tons, a 2.26% decrease from the previous period. Next week, the output is expected to increase slightly to about 102,000 tons [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the demand for butadiene remained high. In the ABS sector, the demand was expected to be constant due to large inventory pressure. In the SBS sector, the demand remained stable [5]. Inventory - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total domestic butadiene sample inventory decreased by 4.88% week - on - week. Although the short - term inventory decreased, there were still expectations of ship arrivals [5]. Viewpoint - In the short term, supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is neutral, with butadiene oscillating. In the medium to long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the market is expected to enter a weak pattern [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the growth of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. Supply - Side - Operating Rate - Multiple plants were under maintenance, affecting the output. The operating rate data showed fluctuations over the years [14][15]. Net Imports - The net import volume data showed changes over the years, and the import profit was also affected by factors such as market price and import cost [16]. Demand - Side - Capacity of Downstream Products - The capacity of downstream products such as butadiene - styrene rubber and butadiene rubber continued to expand, and the operating and maintenance conditions of related plants varied [20][26]. Demand - Side - ABS and SBS Fundamentals - The ABS polymer's operating rate, net profit, and inventory data showed different trends over the years. The SBS capacity utilization rate also fluctuated [32][33]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene showed different trends over the years, and there were expectations of future inventory changes [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Output: The output and operating rate data of high - cis butadiene rubber showed changes over the years, and multiple plants had maintenance plans [40][41]. - Cost and Profit: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [42][43][44]. - Import and Export: The import, export, and apparent demand data of butadiene rubber showed changes over the years [45][46][47]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [49][50][51]. Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires - The inventory and operating rate data of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends over the years [54][55].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of PX, PTA, and MEG in the polyester industry, covering supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is 86.3% (-1.5%), with Fushun Dahua's 700,000 - ton unit under maintenance for two months. Overseas, Hanwha's 1.13 - million - ton unit is planned to restart at the end of September, and ENEOS's 190,000 - ton unit has restarted. The overall Asian operating rate is 78.2% (-0.8%) [3][51] Demand - The PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged), but multiple PTA units plan to undergo maintenance due to low processing fees [3][4] Valuation - PXN is maintained at $227/ton (-$5), and the PX - MX spread is $138/ton (+$11, equivalent to 1,127 yuan/ton). The PX - MX spread may remain high in the long term due to poor gasoline - blending demand [3] Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Supply - The PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged), and multiple units plan to undergo maintenance due to low processing fees, with new unit commissioning postponed [4][93] Demand - The terminal demand in Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry has limited improvement, with high inventory pressure and slow destocking. The future order trend is weak, and there is a risk of negative feedback on polyester production [4] Valuation - The current PTA spot processing fee has recovered to 190 yuan/ton (+82), with the 11 - contract processing fee at 240 yuan/ton and the 01 - contract processing fee at 280 yuan/ton (-9) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak trend; Inter - period: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Supply - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains at 74.9%, with Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton unit. The coal - based operating rate is 79.4% (+2.7%). Tongliao Jinmei will undergo maintenance in mid - October, and new units are expected to increase production [5][135] Demand - The polyester industry has a mixed situation of maintenance and load - increasing, with overall load at 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand in the textile industry has limited improvement, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the fourth quarter [5] Valuation - The coal - based profit has dropped to 400 yuan/ton (-70), the naphtha - based ethylene glycol profit is - 840 yuan/ton (+10), and the MTO profit is - 1030 yuan/ton (+40) [5][132] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak trend; Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Production and Import Plans - In 2025, the PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons, PTA by 6 million tons, MEG by 1 million tons, and polyester fiber by 3.05 million tons. The import volume of PX in July 2025 was 780,000 tons [7][63] Group 6: Market Trends and Risks - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG is weak, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and high inventory. The main risk is policy - related risk [3][4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. In September, the supply and demand are both strong. With low prices, the replenishment support is strong, but the cost support is insufficient, showing a unilateral volatile and weak trend. The recommended strategy is to hold the inter - period positive spread [7]. - Bottle chips: The cost support is insufficient, showing a volatile and weak trend. In September, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The low - price procurement support is strong, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The recommended strategy is to go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) 1.1 Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is relatively high; the disk processing fee is 970 yuan/ton, and the processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, while the basis is high [7]. 1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average operating rate has slightly increased to 95.4%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple fiber operating rate is 98%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future [7]. - Demand: In the second half of the week, when the price dropped to a low level, downstream procurement increased. The short - fiber inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 7.8 days and the physical inventory at 18 days. In September, the downstream operating load increased month - on - month, and each link was in the trend of seasonal inventory reduction [7]. 1.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: Hold the inter - period positive spread - Cross - variety: None [7] 2. Bottle chips (PR) 2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of the October and November disk contracts are 400 - 420 yuan/ton, all of which are over - estimated [8]. 2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory maintains production cuts, with the operating rate at around 81%. The new Fuhai plant is expected to be put into operation in late October or at the end of the month [8]. - Demand: Domestically, the beverage factory's operating rate has dropped to around 85%. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has slightly decreased to 14.5 days. The export volume is expected to maintain at around 600,000 tons in August and September [8]. 2.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8] 3. Cost and Raw Materials - PTA: It is operating weakly, and the warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out [35] - MEG: The subsequent supply pressure will increase month - on - month [44] - Cost and profit: The cost has decreased, and the profit has been repaired. The polymerization cost has dropped to around 5400 yuan/ton, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level [46] 4. Inventory - Polyester factories' overall PTA inventory has increased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has slightly decreased to around 14.5 days. It is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation in September [50][55] 5. Device Changes - In September, about 400,000 tons of the planned 1,000,000 - ton device will resume production. Some factories are maintaining production cuts, and new devices such as Fuhai are expected to be postponed [56] 6. Demand - Beverage consumption from January to August 2025 is weaker year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation. The demand for edible oil is neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is driven by the expansion of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market and the take - away war [63][67][72] 7. Export - In July 2025, the export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices increased year - on - year. The main export destinations are Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe. There are anti - dumping policies and investigations in some countries [82][84][93] 8. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - In September 2025, it is in a tight balance to a slightly inventory - accumulating state, and the pressure will increase in the future. The supply assumption is that mainstream factories maintain production cuts, and new devices will be put into operation. The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and the export volume will maintain at around 600,000 tons [94][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and the market resonate, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloys [3][5][6]. Summary by Directory Overall Situation of Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - This week, the continuous high demand and rising cost of alloys pushed the price center slightly higher. The HeSteel tender price exceeded market expectations. In the short - term, the resonance of fundamentals and sentiment drove the alloy prices to move in an oscillating and slightly upward manner [5]. - Domestically, in August, the M2 - M1 gap in China narrowed by 0.4 percentage points, reaching a four - year low, indicating an increase in capital activation. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to adjust the weak employment market, which was in line with market expectations [5]. - After the military parade, steel mills resumed production, and the molten iron output recovered, supporting the demand for raw materials. The rising cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon output was 113,100 tons, with a weekly production rate of 34.84%, remaining unchanged from last week. Factories maintained high - load production, and there were still plans to start furnaces in the future [54][59]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week [66]. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, up 78,700 tons month - on - month and down 2.25% year - on - year. In September, the stainless - steel crude steel production plan increased by 4.4% month - on - month. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 69,500 tons, up 1.4% month - on - month and 5.58% year - on - year. In July, the ferrosilicon export volume was 35,900 tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [67][68]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 63,390 tons, down 6,550 tons week - on - week. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 17,628, up 1,163 week - on - week, equivalent to 88,140 tons of inventory, with a weekly increase of 5,815 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory were 14.67 days (+0.42 days) [74]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 1,126,280 lots, and the open interest was 211,764 lots, down 6,200 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions continued to rise. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in main production areas was 5,280 - 5,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 70 - 120 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 367.50 yuan/ton, up 33.39% week - on - week and 353.70% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 18.50 yuan/ton, up 77.58% week - on - week and 81.68% year - on - year [4]. Silicomanganese - **Supply**: - This week's silicomanganese output was 208,775 tons, down 5,355 tons from last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 2.6%. The weekly operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week [17]. - Supply in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased. Inner Mongolia had furnace shutdowns for maintenance, and some factories in Ningxia reduced production loads [5]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week. The silicomanganese demand was weakly stable [23]. - In July, the silicomanganese export volume was 2,400 tons, up 106.36% month - on - month and 79.90% year - on - year [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 60,676, down 764 week - on - week, equivalent to 303,380 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 3,820 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' silicomanganese inventory were 14.98 days (+0.74 days). - As of September 19, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the silicomanganese 2601 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 986,446 lots, and the open interest was 334,501 lots, up 8,931 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese in major regions was 5,580 - 6,020 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0 - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 218.34 yuan/ton, up 341.84% week - on - week and down 25.56% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 15.66 yuan/ton, up 88.19% week - on - week and 86.34% year - on - year [4]. Manganese Ore - **Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations were stable on the whole. Some companies' prices increased slightly, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [37][38]. - **Output and Arrival**: - The global manganese ore departure volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high historical level. - The manganese ore arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Before the holiday, restocking might lead to a continued increase in port clearance [40][46].

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ➢ 节前对于原料的补库操作已经开启，目前现货需求支撑相对偏强。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 阅兵后国内上游产量迅速恢复，蒙煤甘其毛都和策克口岸维持高位通关量，现实供给边际近一周变化较小。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如期宣布，盘面计价此前已较为充分，靴子落地后影响有限；国内宏观预期在中美元首通话后再次走强，对黑色估值形 成一定支撑。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 从基本面来看，供需边际双强，宏观层面亦有国内强预期支撑，短期估值或延续偏强震荡。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | FW原煤872.52（+11.45） | 独立焦化厂日均66.72（-0.04） | | | FW精煤450 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards single - sided trading; cross - regional spreads may widen [6][8]. - Medium - to long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply is complex. OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with Russia's supply affected by drone attacks, and non - OPEC+ countries showing significant supply growth [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation. Asia has strong demand, Europe faces seasonal decline, and the US has unexpected gasoline demand [7]. 3.2 Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio; overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission; the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has declined [14][20][25]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ core members' production and export situations vary. Some countries are increasing production, while others are facing supply disruptions. For example, the UAE has increased production capacity, and Russia's exports are restricted by attacks [10][11]. - Non - OPEC+ countries also have different supply situations. The US has reached a record - high production, and Brazil's exports to China are expected to hit a record [6][11]. 3.4 Demand - Global demand shows regional differences. China's demand is supported by the agricultural and construction seasons, and new export quotas may ease domestic oversupply. Europe's demand is affected by refinery maintenance, and the US has strong gasoline demand [7]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories have stabilized; European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased; domestic refined oil profit margins have declined [69][74][76]. 3.6 Price and Spread - North American basis fluctuates; monthly spreads have a slight rebound; SC is stronger than the external market, and monthly spreads have rebounded; net long positions have rebounded [80][81][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to experience high-level oscillations, supported by both macro and micro expectations [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and demand, similar to coking coal and coke, but there are disturbances on the supply side. The valuation of black commodities still has some support on the macro side, and the view that raw materials are stronger than finished products is maintained [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased week-on-week, and the global high-frequency floating supply rebounded in a V-shape. The impact of the news about BHP's partial variety ban needs further observation [5] - Vale's global shipments were 611.2 tons, a week-on-week increase of 259.1 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.8 tons. Its cumulative shipments from the beginning of the year to the 37th week of 2025 were 19,893 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3 tons, or -0.1% [4] - The supply of non-mainstream mines from Peru and Ukraine has not recovered, while the production capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has stabilized [20][28] Demand - Considering the pre-holiday production demand of intermediate products, blast furnace operations strengthened again, and pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons. The immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong [5] - Pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons again, and port ore handling volume increased due to high downstream operations and restocking demand before the holiday [30] Macro Level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the impact was limited after the decision was made. The domestic macro expectation strengthened after the China-US presidential call, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 800.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 575,000 lots, an increase of 31,300 lots. The average daily trading volume was 34,000 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 5,600 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Last week, both the spot and futures markets showed high-level narrow-range oscillations. Among them, the price of BRBF increased by 5 yuan/ton, the price of PB powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the price of super special powder increased by 14 yuan/ton [11] Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived yet, and the inventory of iron concentrate has decreased significantly recently [38][39] Downstream Profits - The spot and futures profits of downstream products have started to show a divergent trend [41] Spot Category Spreads - The price of super special powder has been relatively strong recently, and the spread between medium and low-grade (PB - super special) has continued to narrow significantly, reaching a recent low [44] Futures Monthly Spreads - Recently, both the fundamental reality and macro expectations have been relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread has been relatively stable [46][47] Basis Performance - The futures market has been slightly stronger, and the 05 basis has contracted month-on-month [51]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：FOMC会议降息落地；白银：突破上涨 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：820-840元/克、10000-10400元/千克 1600 2100 2600 3100 3600 4100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 伦敦现货白银:以美元计价 金银比 伦敦金现:IDC 美元/盎司 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 美元/盎司 伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价 美国:国债收益率:通胀指数国债(TIPS):5年 % Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.33%，伦敦银回落-0.06%。金银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]