1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to experience high-level oscillations, alumina will see intense multi - short battles, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Aluminum and Alumina Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,760 yuan, up 250 yuan from a week ago and 1,075 yuan from three months ago. The trading volume is 143,571 lots, a decrease of 1778 lots from the previous day. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,646 US dollars, up 8 US dollars from the previous day and 278 US dollars from three months ago [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,428 yuan, up 295 yuan from a week ago. The trading volume is 905,021 lots, an increase of 118,451 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 494,000 tons, up 23,000 tons from a week ago. The Shanghai bonded area premium is 113 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The domestic average price of alumina is 3,255 yuan, up 18 yuan from a month ago. The alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 399 US dollars per ton, up 5 US dollars from a week ago [1] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to 4.3%. The profit of the automobile industry increased by 96.8%, and the profits of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and computer整机 manufacturing increased by 160.0% and 97.2% respectively [3] - Trump believes that Powell will start to suggest interest rate cuts and that US manufacturers benefit from a weaker dollar [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0 (neutral), alumina is - 1 (weakly bearish), and aluminum alloy is 0 (neutral) [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, including WTI9, Brent 9 - month, and SC2509. It also covers various geopolitical events, OPEC - related news, and US - related policies that may impact the crude oil market. The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $0.87 per barrel, a 1.32% decline, at $65.16 per barrel; Brent 9 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.74 per barrel, a 1.07% decline, at $68.44 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 6.70 yuan per barrel, a 1.32% decline, at 501.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said Israel may target Iran's Supreme Leader in the future [1]. - At least 8 people were killed in an attack in southeastern Iran. There was also a terrorist attack on a judicial building in Zahedan, Iran, with unclear casualty figures [1]. - Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad discussed the Iranian nuclear issue and the Gaza situation with Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi, and Qatar will continue diplomatic efforts [1]. OPEC - Related News - OPEC clarified that the JMMC meeting on July 28 has no decision - making power on production levels, only for monitoring compliance and reviewing the market [1]. - An OPEC + senior official said that only an eight - country group can decide when to exit voluntary production cuts and the September production policy [1]. Speculative Positions - Last week, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures on the ICE decreased by 11,352 contracts to 227,393 contracts, while the speculative net long positions in gasoline futures increased by 8,012 contracts to 98,180 contracts [1]. US - Related Policies - The US to July 25 week's total number of oil drilling rigs decreased from the previous value of 422 to 415 [1]. - US President Trump is considering secondary sanctions against Russia [1]. - The US will not extend the August 1 tariff - increase deadline, and the goal of Trump's negotiation with the EU is to open the EU market for US exports [1][2].

2025 年 07 月 28 日 铜：国内库存减少，限制价格下跌 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 宏观方面，特朗普称与欧盟达协议可能五成，后改口称或可达成，预计多数协议 8 月前完成，加拿大在 最后期限前达成新协议的可能性不大。（华尔街见闻） 美国 6 月耐用品订单环比初值-9.3%，创疫情以来最大月度跌幅，飞机订单拖累。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，盎格鲁亚洲矿业有限公司宣布，该公司旗下位于阿塞拜疆卡拉巴赫经济区的 Demirli 铜矿 开始试生产，预计产量将在今年年底前增加，2025 年铜精矿产量为 4,000 吨。（SMM） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,250 | -0.80% | 78800 | -0.57% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,796 | -0.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 鸡蛋：现货驱动减弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2508 | 3,522 | -1.57 | -31 | -4,416 | | | 鸡蛋2510 | 3,411 | 0.41 | -3,693 | 204 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋8-9价差 | | -106 | | -74 | | | 鸡蛋8-10价差 | | 111 | | 163 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.18 | | 3.18 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.73 | | 3.73 | | | | | 最新日 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a bullish and volatile market due to sector-wide market resonance [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is rated as 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,356 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.32%); trading volume was 2,878,137 lots, and open interest was 1,998,652 lots, an increase of 92,300 lots. For hot-rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,507 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton (1.98%); trading volume was 995,111 lots, and open interest was 1,554,563 lots, an increase of 46,781 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50, 40, 30, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 30, 30, 30, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 21 yuan/ton to -7 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to -43 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 5 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (July 24)**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 3.65 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 1.22 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.62 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.25 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.16 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 8.55 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 million tons [2] - **Mid - July Steel Production Data (2025)**: Key steel enterprises produced 2,141 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 214.1 million tons (a 2.1% daily increase); 1,944 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194.4 million tons (a 0.6% daily increase); and 2,080 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208.0 million tons (a 4.6% daily increase) [3] - **Policy News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair pricing practices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The lead market lacks driving forces, and prices are fluctuating. The trend strength of lead is neutral [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%, while the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at $2,020.5/ton, down 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 46,763 lots, an increase of 344 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,355 lots, a decrease of 734 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 73,327 lots, an increase of 3,335 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 142,292 lots, an increase of 1,567 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$23.42/ton, an increase of $0.85/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 59,959 tons, unchanged, and the LME lead inventory was 266,275 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,425 tons, an increase of 600 tons [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -850.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.34 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -698.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.6 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement and said an agreement might be reached. Most agreements are expected to be completed before August. The possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [2]. - In June, the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders was -9.3%, the largest monthly decline since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [2]. - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the research on silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures, released on July 28, 2025, by the Research Institute of Guotai Junan Futures [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures are showing a strong trend due to information disturbances related to energy consumption, carbon emissions, and industry competition [2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Silicon ferroalloy 2509 closed at 6166, up 412 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 566,065 and an open interest of 212,806; Silicon ferroalloy 2510 closed at 6156, up 406, with a trading volume of 63,215 and an open interest of 44,001 - Manganese ferroalloy 2509 closed at 6414, up 466, with a trading volume of 877,130 and an open interest of 387,032; Manganese ferroalloy 2510 closed at 6398, up 450, with a trading volume of 47,681 and an open interest of 24,472 [2] Spot Market - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton; The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree; The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 666 yuan/ton, down 412 yuan/ton; The spot - futures price spread of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 714 yuan/ton, down 446 yuan/ton - The near - far month price spread of silicon ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; The near - far month price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 was - 64 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton - The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 was 248 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2601 - silicon ferroalloy 2601 was 192 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On July 25, the price range of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (+50); The price range of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (+50), in Ningxia was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), and in Inner Mongolia was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1090 - 1110 dollars/ton - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton - As of July 25, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 354.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.93 million tons; at Qinzhou Port was 81.58 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; at Fangchenggang Port was 6.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory was 442.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73 million tons [3] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 1, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "High-level oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on zinc's fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, premiums, and inventories, and also mentions relevant news and trend strength [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract was 152,086 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE Zinc main contract was 129,228 lots, a decrease of 5,707 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 190,675 lots, an increase of 2,366 lots [1] - **Premiums**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, down 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 13,289 tons, an increase of 1,349 tons; LME zinc inventory was 115,775 tons, a decrease of 1,125 tons [1] 2. News - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its stance on issues such as so - called "overcapacity" and industrial subsidies in China - EU economic and trade relations, emphasizing the complementary and win - win nature of China - EU economic and trade relations and the need for the EU to relax restrictions on high - tech product exports to China [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is -1, indicating a relatively bearish sentiment [2][3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 苯乙烯：胀库压力大，偏空配置 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,387 | 7,387 | 0 EB-BZ | | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,602 | 7,468 | 134 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,587 | 7,440 | 147 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -215 | -81 | -134 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 15 | 28 | -13 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强 ...

商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 2025 年 7 月 28 日 碳酸锂：周五夜盘商品价格下跌，关注悲观情绪的 传导 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 80,520 | 3,840 | 10,560 | 16,240 | 19,640 | 9,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,203,424 | -566,859 | -2,899 | 800,608 | 836,681 | 1,197,050 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 491,088 | 54,361 | 113,783 | 168,228 | 1 ...