铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：锚定铝价，价格震荡偏强 强弱分析：中性偏强 精废价差骤增 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ADC12-A00价差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has declined marginally as some northwest factories have reduced production. The downstream demand for industrial silicon remains weak, with polysilicon planning to cut production and silicone factories likely to reduce their loads in January, leading to a decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upside potential for the futures price. However, short - term sentiment factors such as "component rush for exports" and a warming macro - environment may support the price floor. It is recommended to short at high prices, with a suggested short - selling range of 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton and a stop - profit range of 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton. The expected futures price range next week is 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [7][8]. - For polysilicon, the futures price has adjusted downward. The price increase of silicon materials has gradually been transmitted to downstream sectors, providing short - term support for the spot price of silicon materials. The supply is weak while the demand is strong. The supply has shrunk due to the dry season and high upstream inventory, leading to production cut expectations. The demand is expected to be boosted by the component rush for exports in the first quarter. Considering the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton, the futures price is expected to remain above this level. However, the market liquidity has been decreasing since late December, and it is not recommended to participate in futures trading. The expected futures price range next week is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price has dropped from its high, partly due to the decline in polysilicon futures. The Friday futures price closed at 8715 yuan/ton. The spot price has remained stable, with the Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon quoted at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) and the Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon at 8950 yuan/ton (also unchanged) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen, and the pre - holiday futures price closed at 57,920 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price has remained firm, with downstream rigid demand for restocking and some high - price orders [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory has decreased slightly. The Xinjiang region has reduced its production, while the southwest region's production has remained stable. The total weekly production has decreased marginally. The southwest region has entered the dry season, with a calculated cost of 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price). The local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang have also reduced production, resulting in a marginal decrease in short - term supply. The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has decreased by 0.5 million tons, the factory inventory has increased by 90,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory has decreased by 0.41 million tons. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [2]. - Demand: The downstream rigid demand is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production schedule has decreased, and there are plans to shut down a large silicon - material factory in Inner Mongolia from February to May to relieve inventory pressure, which may lead to a marginal decrease in demand for industrial silicon. In the silicone sector, the weekly production has decreased, and there are plans for further production cuts to support prices. However, due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to implement. The export tax rebate for silicone will be cancelled after April 1st, and the pre - emptive export rush may bring some consumption growth. In the aluminum alloy sector, aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have stocked up reasonably, with higher purchasing enthusiasm at low prices and a wait - and - see attitude at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [3]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, silicon - material manufacturers are expected to cut production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The SMM statistics show that the inventory of silicon - material manufacturers has decreased month - on - month. After the market sentiment adjustment this week, downstream purchasing has been relatively cautious. The current manufacturer inventory is around 30 million tons, and the industry inventory, including downstream raw - material inventory, is around 50 million tons, approaching 5 - 6 months of consumption. The overall average full cost is estimated to be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, assuming no consideration of increased costs due to production cut depreciation and state reserves [4]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer production schedule has increased week - on - week. In January, the silicon - wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and the price increase has been transmitted to downstream sectors, supporting silicon - wafer enterprises to increase production. The component rush for exports in the first quarter is expected to boost terminal demand due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate for components starting from April. Future attention should be paid to the price increase of components [6]. 3.3 Futures Research - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high prices. The expected futures price range for industrial silicon next week is 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton, and for polysilicon, it is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Inter - period trading: No recommendations are provided [9]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - selling hedging [9]. 3.4 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from December 19, 2025, to January 9, 2026, with prices remaining relatively stable during this period [11]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Supply - Side (Smelting and Raw Materials) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the domestic industrial silicon social inventory and factory inventory trends, monthly production, monthly production seasonality, monthly production capacity utilization rate, monthly production capacity utilization rate seasonality, profit calculations for different regions and grades of industrial silicon, monthly export and import volumes of industrial silicon, trade - link inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, electrodes, and electricity prices in major production areas [12][13][15][19]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Polysilicon) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of polysilicon, domestic polysilicon production and year - on - year growth, polysilicon industry production capacity utilization rate, polysilicon import and export volumes, polysilicon industry profit calculation, single - crystal silicon wafer export volume and year - on - year growth, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, and domestic new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [23][24]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Silicone) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the average price trend of domestic DMC, DMC industry monthly production capacity utilization rate, DMC production and monthly year - on - year growth, DMC factory inventory seasonality, primary - form polysiloxane export volume and year - on - year growth, and DMC industry profit calculation [24][25]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Aluminum Alloy) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the seasonal price chart of recycled aluminum ADC12, recycled aluminum industry monthly production capacity utilization rate, recycled aluminum alloy profit calculation, and monthly automobile sales [29][31][34].

五 2025 年 1 月 11 日 二 〇 二 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，周四有所回暖，周五盘中宽幅震荡后仍整体收阴。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，周四有所回暖，周五盘中宽幅震荡后仍整体收阴。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 市场特征方面，本周国债期货市场呈现短端韧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to event - driven factors and valuation repair, along with subtle changes in the supply - demand structure, coal and coke will maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern. The recent rebound is not based on the commodity's fundamental narrative, and the market game focuses on two aspects. Firstly, there are concerns about coal mine supply - guarantee management in 2026, and the potential withdrawal of some coal mines from supply - guarantee measures. Secondly, black commodities were previously at low prices, and funds are more interested in undervalued varieties. With the expected tightening of domestic supply and issues in Mongolian coal imports, the contradiction between industry and capital behavior needs further attention. Before the Spring Festival, coal and coke will likely continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended that investors try to go long on dips and, after the option is listed, use strategies such as selling 1000P or covered call strategies [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly View Supply - Domestic coal supply has recovered rapidly as previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coal mines this week was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons. Mongolian coal's year - end volume rush has ended, and high port inventories are expected to affect subsequent customs clearance. Mongolian coal customs clearance is expected to decline in January [3] Demand - This week, the hot metal output increased by 20,700 tons to 2.295 million tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for raw material procurement has increased compared to the previous period, which supports coking coal prices. However, the resumption rhythm of downstream steel mill blast furnaces still needs to be observed. It is expected that the hot metal output will remain in a low - level oscillation in the first ten days of January and will rebound significantly in the middle and late ten days [4] Inventory - This week, the total inventory of coking coal in all links increased by 144,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly in independent coking plants and ports. The inventory in independent coking plants increased by 192,000 tons week - on - week, and the port coking coal inventory increased by 170,000 tons compared to last week [5] Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal was 8.2638 billion tons (+208.2 million tons), FW clean coal was 4.2002 billion tons (+97.6 million tons), the daily average of independent coking plants was 636,000 tons (+80,000 tons), and the daily average of steel mill coking enterprises was 469,000 tons (+10,000 tons) [8] - **Demand**: The hot metal output was 2.295 million tons (+20,700 tons) [8] - **Inventory**: The MS total inventory increased by 597,000 tons, the mine raw coal inventory decreased by 34,000 tons, the mine clean coal inventory increased by 104,300 tons, the independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, the independent coking plant inventory increased by 192,000 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 17,000 tons, the steel mill coking plant inventory decreased by 45,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the port inventory increased by 170,000 tons while the port inventory decreased by 109,000 tons [8] - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 445 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton) [8] - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - dry quenched coke in ports was 1,700 yuan/ton [8] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly data shows the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the开工 rate of 523 sample mines. The monthly data shows the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. The data on Mongolian coal customs clearance shows the customs clearance volume of different ports [10][12][14] Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 28,900 tons week - on - week to 2.1926 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 48,400 tons week - on - week to 1.5336 million tons [25] - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.998 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [27] - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of coking plants is presented, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days by different production capacities [30][32][34] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory data of steel mills is provided, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days [36] 02 Coke Fundamental Data Supply - **Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, and by different production capacities and regions, are shown [39] - **Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises is presented [41] - **Output - Coking Plant**: The daily output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises is shown [47] - **Output - Steel Mill**: The daily output of 247 steel enterprises is presented [49] Inventory - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of coking plants, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, is shown [51] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory data of steel mills, including total inventory, inventory by region, inventory available days by region, and the total inventory of the full - sample, is presented [52][54][59] Demand - Pig Iron - The supply - demand difference of coke, daily supply, daily demand, and the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises are shown [63] Profit - The profit data of coke, including the disk profit of coking per ton and the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton, is presented [66] 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [69] Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [74] Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [77][79] Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are shown [83] Coal and Coke Basis - The basis data of coking coal and coke are presented [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil price may be strong, with Brent possibly reaching the $65 - 68 per barrel range. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI still face significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of the outer market, testing 380 yuan per barrel. The oil price decline accelerated under the influence of the current trade friction, but the medium - and long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to the potential reversal of macro expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations [5]. - The Iranian situation has rapidly deteriorated, and there may be some emotional premium in the short term, continuing the upward trend. In the medium - and long - term, Venezuelan crude oil may have a greater impact on the heavy - oil market, with a temporarily limited marginal impact on the global crude oil market. At least Chinese local refineries will be the final recipients, and there is currently a large amount of crude oil in transit. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is difficult to interrupt, and attention should be paid to the rhythm. OPEC+ production increase continues, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to disprove global inventory accumulation in the next 3 months [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In 2026, the global crude oil supply is generally loose, with continuous structural surplus pressure. The demand growth rate significantly slows down, with an annual increase of only about 0.8%, and the demand structure is accelerating the shift from transportation fuel - driven to chemical raw material - driven [5]. - The short - term valuation is at a medium level. The strategy includes short - term unilateral waiting and not trying to go short prematurely, clearing long positions in calendar spreads and waiting, and closing long positions in EFS spread at high prices [7]. 2. Macro - The gold - oil ratio has strengthened again, short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to the medium - and long - term "re - inflation" trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [22][23][24]. 3. Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increase in the first quarter of 2026. In 2025, OPEC+ had significant cumulative production increases. Non - OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana have high - level production operations, with an estimated supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - The supply situation varies by country. For example, the UAE's Upper Zakum crude oil faced weak demand in February 2025; Saudi Arabia plans to adjust the official selling price of crude oil in February, etc. Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian issue, which may cause an emotional premium of $3 - 5 per barrel [8]. 4. Demand - The demand in developed economies is in a structural decline, while the demand increment mainly comes from non - OECD countries, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. China remains an important engine of demand growth in the Asia - Pacific region. The demand structure is shifting from transportation fuel to chemical raw materials [5]. - In Asia, China's new crude oil processing capacity since 2000 has exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day, and the second - batch non - state - owned import quota has been issued in 2026. In the US and Europe, the approaching spring refinery maintenance season will reduce the short - term demand for crude oil [10]. 5. Inventory - The US commercial inventory has stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. European diesel inventory has declined, and gasoline inventory has increased. The global in - transit crude oil inventory has declined from a high level, and the global crude oil floating storage is high [68][73][75]. 6. Price and Spread - The spot market performance during the holiday was weak. The Dubai crude oil spread in the Middle East reached a six - week high, and the freight rate of very large crude carriers from the world to Asia dropped significantly. The North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the SC valuation is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [85][94][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. Southeast Asia is in the high-yielding period of rubber tapping, with an increase in supply. However, the temperature in northeastern Thailand is dropping, and factories are replenishing their inventories periodically, so overseas raw material prices may remain high. It is estimated that rubber tapping in northeastern Thailand will gradually stop at the end of January, and about a month later in the south. In the short term, the accumulation rate of natural rubber spot inventory may slow down. With the correction in the commodity market, rubber prices are expected to continue to decline, but the downward adjustment is also expected to be limited [100][101]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Border conflicts and floods in Thailand have caused a rubber production reduction of over 44,000 tons and economic losses exceeding 2.995 billion Thai baht [5]. - From January to November 2025, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4% year-on-year, and exports to China increased by 119% [6]. - From 2014 - 2024, Sri Lanka's rubber production and planting area decreased by an average annual of 7% and 6.3% respectively. If the trend continues, the rubber industry may decline [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber futures rose, with RU leading the increase. On January 9, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 16,030 yuan/ton, 13,020 yuan/ton, 183.80 cents/kg, and 345.60 yen/kg respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.72%, 2.32%, 2.17%, and 0.99% [10][12]. Basis and Spread - On January 9, 2026, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was -330 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7.04% and a year-on-year increase of 56.58%; the 05 - 09 spread was 25 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 58.33% and a year-on-year increase of 115.63% [16]. - RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while RU - BR spread decreased [17]. - This week, the import rubber market offer rose. The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread expanded [23]. Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber supply remained at a high level, and the market price increased significantly due to cost factors. The raw material cost continued to rise, compressing production profits, and major suppliers continuously raised prices [28]. Capital Movements - The virtual - to - physical ratio and settled funds of both RU and NR increased. On January 9, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 22.71 and 20.92 respectively, with month-on-month increases of 12.62% and 4.92%; the settled funds were 6.892 billion yuan and 2.852 billion yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of 20.73% and 8.13% [31][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainy season in the south is approaching the end with decreasing rainfall, while the rainy season in the northeast has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39]. - Domestic rubber - tapping is approaching the end, and overseas factory restocking demand supports rising raw material prices [41]. - The water - to - cup price spread in Thailand has decreased, and the spread of Hainan rubber latex into concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories has remained stable [45]. - Thailand's rubber processing profits have generally recovered [48]. - Hainan's delivery profit has increased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [51]. - In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month; in December, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in November, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in December, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month [59][65][71][72]. - In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [76]. Demand - Some tire enterprises were in the "New Year's Day" holiday maintenance state this week, and production capacity utilization continued to decline. Full - steel tires were destocked, while semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory [82]. - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated; passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline; tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [83]. - In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [87]. Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with a higher accumulation rate than the previous period. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased significantly, with a 6.6% increase in inbound volume and a 31% decrease in outbound volume [94]. - On January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%; the 20 - rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 0.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.74% [97]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the raw material glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5% [101]. - Demand: Most enterprises that had maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday have restored production to normal levels, and some enterprises are still in the recovery stage. The overall shipment of enterprises is poor, and inventory reduction is slow [101]. - Viewpoint: Although there is an increase in supply during the high - yielding period of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices overseas may remain high. The inventory accumulation rate of natural rubber spot may slow down in the short term, and rubber prices may continue to decline, but the downward space is limited [101]. - Valuation: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [101]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips. 2) Inter - delivery: Observe. 3) Inter - commodity: Go long on RU and short on NR [101].

BZ&Eb周报：BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢 高空的机会 • 2）跨期：关注EB02-03反套 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：原油地缘风险高开之后，关注逢高空的机会 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山东 地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在48万吨左右的高进口，2月之后的进口 仍然在45万吨左右。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 行业资讯 行业资讯 1 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：中纸网，隆众资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中国纸浆常熟港库存52.5万吨，较上周期下降2.3万吨，环比下降4.2%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存134.2万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨0.2%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈 现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week, and the fundamentals changed little. The futures market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the positive spread month - to - month difference weakened further [4][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of January 3, there was 1 ship departing from New Zealand in January, all going to the Chinese mainland, with an expected arrival of about 1080000 cubic meters in January and 0 in February [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the average daily shipment of Lanshan Port was 20300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 13800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1242000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 307000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 36500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 122200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 5200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 78100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1749300 cubic meters, a decrease of 93200 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of January 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 774.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.1% increase from last week. The futures market continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The positive spread month - to - month difference weakened further. The 03 - 05 month - to - month difference was - 12.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 23.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 11 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of January 10, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1718.00 points, a decrease of 164 points (- 8.71%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was 613 points, a decrease of 10.51% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1647.39 points, a decrease of 0.5% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index rebounded slightly after the New Year's Day. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.985, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% to 1.738 [57].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The domestic PG fluctuates widely in the short term, affected by geopolitical factors. Supply pressure may emerge later, and downward drivers are gradually appearing, but geopolitical situations and PDH device feedback need to be closely monitored [3][4]. - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong. Next week, with the reduction in supply and the increase in demand, there is still upward potential for propylene [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain high - level fluctuations, with significant increases in civil and imported gas prices and a further decline in ether - post prices. Propane prices are oscillating strongly, Asian spot premiums are rising further, CP FOB premiums are falling, and freight rates are increasing [8][12][21][23]. - **Supply** - Domestic LPG production shows a decrease, with a total commodity volume of 518,000 tons (-1.1%). US LPG shipments to Asia are increasing month - on - month, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments are recovering [3][33][35]. - **Demand & Inventory** - Chemical demand shows a slight increase in PDH operating rates and a slight decline in MTBE operating rates. Domestic LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, civil gas refinery inventories have small month - on - month changes, and terminal import inventories show destocking in East China and Shandong and inventory accumulation in South China [63][65][86]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The cost - side propane is firm, propylene prices stabilize and then rebound, and PDH profits are oscillating and recovering. Downstream trends are improving further, and profits are being repaired. International/US - dollar prices are rising slightly month - on - month, the import window remains closed but the inversion is narrowing, and domestic prices are weakly operating [98][100][102][112]. - **Balance Sheet** - PDH operating rates are increasing month - on - month, powder production operating rates are further declining, and butanol and octanol operating rates are increasing significantly. Supply is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance of some devices, while demand is expected to increase, with some downstream devices having restart and load - increasing plans [123][148]. - **Supply** - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 76.0% (+1.1%). Refinery/main - plant operating rates are slightly increasing to 77%, cracking/ethylene cracking operating rates are 83.5% (-0.1%), PDH capacity utilization is 75.6% (+0.5%), and MTO capacity utilization is 88.1% (+0.6%) [152][161][167][172]. - **Demand** - PP capacity utilization is 75.5% (-1.3%), PP powder capacity utilization is 37.4% (-1.2%), PO capacity utilization is 73.7% (+0.1%), acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 78.8% (+0.5%), acrylic acid capacity utilization is 86.7% (+3.6%), n - butanol capacity utilization is 83.1% (+2.1%), octanol capacity utilization is 89.0% (+7.0%), phenol - ketone capacity utilization is 85.5% (+4.5%), and ECH capacity utilization is 49.27% (-0.67%) [189][212][224][236][240][250][255][260][268]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventories and powder inventories show different trends, with production enterprise inventories decreasing and powder inventories increasing. Inventories of other downstream products such as phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile also have corresponding changes [273][277][278].