2025 年 9 月 2 日 研 究 棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，回调布多 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，回调整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,330 | 0.11% | 9,482 | 1.63% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,390 | -0.10% | 8,396 | 0.07% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,930 | -0.43% | 9,841 | -0.90% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | / | / | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 255 | -13983 | 2,140 | -146 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 1,039 | -13,807 | 3, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are weak, alumina is in a low - level oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% has been achieved, and it will take measures to maintain price stability. The "easing cycle" is expected to end, and the ECB is likely to "stand still" for the second consecutive time at the next meeting. The euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years, with strong rebounds in Germany and France [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,645, down 95 from T - 1, and the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,620, up 1 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 158,586, an increase of 37,344 from T - 1 [1] - The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 2.56%, unchanged from T - 1, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 4.72, up 1.74 from T - 1 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 3,008, down 28 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 356,281, an increase of 65,205 from T - 1 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 19, and the cost of the near - month long and consecutive - first short inter - period arbitrage was 25.58, down 0.60 from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275, down 75 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 1,959, an increase of 591 from T - 1 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 15.00, down 45 from T - 1, and the spot premium was - 30, down 10 from T - 1 [1] Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from T - 1, and the SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 58,500 tons, down 100 tons from T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 3,942.14, down 144.87 from T - 1, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 1,200.55, down 29.10 from T - 1 [1] Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 3,222, unchanged from T - 1, and the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 386 US dollars per ton, down 2 US dollars from T - 1 [1] - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 230, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 177, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,300, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - The total inventory of the three places was 33,715, an increase of 719 from T - 1 [1] Other - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,710, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

【新闻】 中国 8 月标普制造业 PMI 回升至 50.5，新订单增速为 3 月以来最快。新订单增加推动制造业生产恢复 增长，新出口业务萎缩步伐放缓，采购活动和库存增加，商业信心也有所提升，但企业在员工招聘方面仍保 持谨慎。（华尔街见闻） 内需回暖提振，欧元区 8 月制造业 PMI 三年来首次升至荣枯线上方，德法强劲反弹。（华尔街见闻） 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16855 | -0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1997 | 0.45% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 39854 | -3999 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5890 | 2073 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51017 | 1835 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 1603 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are in a narrow - range oscillatory state, with the trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel being neutral [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450, with a change of 1,750 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,950, with a change of 135 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 171,897, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 164,893 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 123,575, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (factory price) is 942, and the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Supply - side News**: In March 2025, Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. In April 2025, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron. In 2025, an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to reduce the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metric tons [2][3][4][5]. - **Policy - related News**: In 2025, Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget starting from October 2025. The Indonesian government has approved a 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production of 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target of 3.19 billion tons [4][5]. - **Environmental News**: Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire industrial park. The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [3][6]. - **Domestic Steel Mill News**: Due to the provincial steel mill's annual production reduction target of 5%, a steel mill in Shandong started maintenance, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending the delivery obligations of long - term supply agreements signed in August 2025 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [7].

2025 年 09 月 02 日 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,495 359,856 | 105 20,882 | -180 -115,755 | -265 -50,515 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 285,449 | -6,966 | -3,676 | 72,517 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 52,285 | 2,730 | 705 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 536,098 | 183,039 | 175,576 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 150,409 | 5,412 | 13,608 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -30 | -10 | -40 | -30 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils has accumulated too quickly, leading to a volatile correction in steel prices [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coils is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Specific Data Summaries Futures Data - The closing price of RB2510 was 3,039 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 2.19% [1] - The closing price of HC2510 was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton or 1.37% [1] - The trading volume of RB2510 was 675,240 lots, and the open interest was 859,408 lots, a decrease of 196,302 lots [1] - The trading volume of HC2510 was 245,512 lots, and the open interest was 574,221 lots, a decrease of 85,585 lots [1] Spot Price Data - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 30 - 60 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Tangshan billet decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread Data - The basis of RB2510 increased by 31 yuan/ton to 211 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of HC2510 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to -76 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 16 yuan/ton to 281 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 188 yuan/ton [1] - The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News Data - On August 28, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 0.5 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 6.55 tons [2] - The total inventory of rebar increased by 16.35 tons, hot-rolled coils increased by 4.02 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 26.84 tons [2] - The apparent demand for rebar increased by 9.41 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.55 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 4.78 tons [2] - In mid-August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons, a daily increase of 2.0% [3] - They produced 19.24 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.924 million tons, a daily increase of 0.5% [3] - They produced 20.49 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.049 million tons, a daily increase of 2.2% [3] - The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten-day period [3] - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a 4.83% decrease from the previous month [3] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a 0.1% year-on-year increase [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic spot copper has a high premium, and the price is firm [1] Group 3: Summary of Copper Fundamental Data Futures - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 79,780, with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 79,660, with a decrease of 0.15%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk yesterday was 9,875, with a decrease of 0.31% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 78,481, an increase of 7,420 compared with the previous day, and the position was 180,644, an increase of 6,818. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,513, a decrease of 12,738, and the position was 269,000, an increase of 742 [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 20,200, a decrease of 1,212. The inventory of LME Copper was 158,875, a decrease of 25, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 8.29%, an increase of 0.08% [1] Spot - The LME copper premium was - 86.27, a decrease of 6.01 compared with the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 55 (unchanged), and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 58, a decrease of 1 [1] - The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,700, an increase of 300. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 235, a decrease of 15 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 10, a decrease of 40. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month contract and selling the consecutive - first contract was 200 [1] - The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was 91, a decrease of 100. The spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was - 213, a decrease of 146 [1] - The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 1,637, an increase of 176. The import profit and loss of recycled copper was 700, an increase of 486 [1] Group 4: Summary of Macro and Industry News Macro - China's S&P manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, and the new order growth rate was the fastest since March. New orders promoted the recovery of manufacturing production, the decline of new export business slowed down, procurement activities and inventory increased, and business confidence also improved [1] - Boosted by the recovery of domestic demand, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years, with strong rebounds in Germany and France [1] Industry - Freeport's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik factory in early September [1] - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals has resumed operations at its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba since the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order on August 22 [3] - Ivanhoe Mines said that the drainage of the eastern section of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine, the largest copper producer in Africa, will enable the mine to resume production capacity early next year [3] - Chile's copper production in July was 445,214 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 5% and a limited year - on - year increase [3] Group 5: Copper Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, and the value range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

2025 年 9 月 2 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：厂库去库，原油偏强 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,547 | 0.80% | 3,546 | -0.03% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,540 | 0.94% | 3,553 | 0.37% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 2,646 | (861) | 6,296 | (1,213) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 164,623 | 7,881 | 109,607 | (10,112) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 71300 | -200 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

【宏观及行业新闻】 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 02 日 白糖：等待消息指引 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.34 | -0.16 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 14 | 27 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5940 | 0 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 39 | 2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5609 | 5 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 331 | -5 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 期货研究 高频信息：巴西产量需要被重估。印度季风降水量较 LPA 高 6.7%（9 月 1 日）。巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨， 同比减少 5%。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+32 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - At the end of the month and the beginning of the new month, large - scale pig - producing groups significantly reduced their supply, and the spot price realized the market's expectation of a rebound. There is still supply pressure in September, and from September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate. It is advisable to engage in a 11 - 1 reverse spread. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, the price decline has accelerated, and the cost of slaughtering from March to May will decrease. Attention should be paid to the downward shift of the far - end central price, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton year - on - year. For futures, the price of the live hog 2511 contract is 13,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live hog 2601 contract is 13,840 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live hog 2603 contract is 13,110 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live hog 2511 contract is 30,523 lots, an increase of 7,668 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 75,464 lots, an increase of 1,828 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the live hog 2601 contract is 14,130 lots, an increase of 1,745 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,478 lots, an increase of 165 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the live hog 2603 contract is 4,194 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,211 lots, an increase of 439 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2511 contract is 605 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live hog 2601 contract is 390 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live hog 2603 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the live hog 11 - 1 contracts is - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the live hog 1 - 3 contracts is 730 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].