Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber is expected to move in a range, with a strategy of going long on PF and short on PR recommended. Bottle chips are also expected to move in a range [1]. - Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 40%. Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere is light [1][2]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber 2509 remained at 6380, short - fiber 2510 decreased by 14 to 6486, and short - fiber 2511 decreased by 44 to 6468. The spread PF09 - 10 increased by 14 to - 106, PF10 - 11 increased by 30 to 18. The short - fiber main contract's open interest increased by 32556 to 171800, and the trading volume decreased by 18789 to 138898. The short - fiber sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8% to 40%, and the East China spot price remained at 6535 [1]. - **Bottle chips**: The price of bottle chips 2509 decreased by 18 to 5818, bottle chips 2510 decreased by 20 to 5952, and bottle chips 2511 decreased by 6 to 5950. The spread PR09 - 10 increased by 2 to - 134, PR10 - 11 decreased by 14 to 2. The bottle chip main contract's open interest increased by 761 to 32115, and the trading volume decreased by 10121 to 50362. The East China spot price increased by 30 to 5890, and the South China spot price remained at 5960 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials. Factory quotes are stable, and traders offer discounts. Downstream demand is based on orders, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 40% as of 3:00 pm [1]. - **Bottle chips**: Upstream polyester raw material futures decline slightly. Factory quotes are mostly stable, and the trading atmosphere is light. Orders from September to November are mostly traded at 5880 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle chips is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the compliance period approaches, EUA continues to decouple from European energy and the stock market, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [1] - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with a price range of €63 - 76 [1] - There are no new positive or negative factors [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs EUA Auction Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 161.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.82, and the auction revenue was 115.11 million euros [3] - On August 28, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.18 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.39, and the auction revenue was 230.94 million euros [3] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.99 euros/ton (up 1.77%), the trading volume was 23,400 lots (down 0.12 lots), and the open interest was unchanged [1][4] - On August 29, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 72.46 euros/ton (up 1.78%), the trading volume was 2,644 lots, the container shipping carbon cost was 16.86 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 1.14% [4]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: September 2, 2025 [1] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, PX and asphalt have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; PP, glass, benzene - ethylene, and soda ash have a trend intensity of - 1, suggesting a relatively negative outlook; while most other commodities have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10][21][39][54][66][69] Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene - ethylene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 reverse spread trading, and going long on PX and short on EB. The price has limited downside space, and it's advisable to go long on dips before mid - September. An expected increase in supply in September and new PTA production capacity will keep the supply - demand in a tight - balance [5][10] - **PTA**: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner with limited downside. The polyester start - up rate is rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking pattern. The basis and spread are supported, but the factory hedging may suppress the price. Focus on the 11 - contract strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX [11] - **MEG**: The price is in a volatile range, and it's not advisable to chase the long side when the price is above 4550. Suggest going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the port is in a stocking pattern. The overall price support is limited [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It will run in a volatile manner. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is average, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand and price [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run in a range following the macro - sentiment in the short term. The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is increasing, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][20] Asphalt - The factory inventory is decreasing, and the crude oil price is strong. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed, and the basis and spread have also fluctuated. The domestic asphalt production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [21][34] LLDPE - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The PE demand is improving due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry, but the commodity sentiment has declined recently, affecting the futures price. The supply pressure may be relieved in the medium term [35][36] PP - In the short term, it will be volatile, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. The short - term demand has improved, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, but the cost uncertainty and policy factors should also be considered [39][40] Caustic Soda - It will have a wide - range volatile movement. The export is the main factor restricting the price increase, while the domestic demand is stable, and the alumina production may drive the domestic 50 - alkali market. The market pressure will ease after the 09 - contract warehouse receipt cancellation [43][45] Pulp - It will run in a volatile manner. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high port inventory and limited downstream procurement. The foreign quotation and cost support limit the downside space [49][52] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The futures price has increased, but the spot market is weak, with the main - producing area's price slightly decreasing and the overall trading being average [54][55] Methanol - It will run in a volatile manner. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is large, with high port inventory and upstream selling pressure. In the medium term, it may enter a range - bound pattern due to policy support [58][61] Urea - It will run in a volatile manner in the short term. The fundamental pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak, but the policy uncertainty makes the market investment conservative. The price has pressure above 1800 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the downward space is also limited [63][64] Benzene - Ethylene - It is bearish in the medium term. In the short term, it will be volatile. The market is in a situation of long - short confrontation, with the industry expecting the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the port inventory is increasing, and the fundamental pressure is large [66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The price is slightly declining, the device operation is stable, and the downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing on demand [68][69] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The CP paper - cargo prices have increased, and there are many domestic device - maintenance plans [72][77] - **Propylene**: The spot price is still supported, but there is a risk of decline. The spread between different regions and contracts has changed, and the start - up rates of related industries have also fluctuated [72] PVC - The price trend is under pressure. The supply is high, the domestic and foreign trade demands are not improved, and the inventory is increasing. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the incentive for production reduction [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It will have a narrow - range volatile movement with a weak trend. The futures and spot prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed [80][81] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session opened higher, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the foreign market continued to decline [80][81] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It will have a volatile movement. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the freight - rate indices of European and US - West routes have shown different trends. The current - period freight rates of different carriers on the European line are also provided [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - p - Xylene: Long the spread between November and January contracts, short the spread between January and May contracts. Long PX and short EB. Go long on dips before mid - September [7] - PTA: Long the spread between November and January contracts, long PTA and short MEG [1] - MEG: Long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase long positions, consider the valuation high above 4550 [1][9] 2. Core Views - The supply - demand of p - Xylene is in a tight - balance pattern. The overnight oil price rebound supports PX. In September, supply will marginally increase, but PX demand from new PTA projects keeps the balance tight [7][8] - PTA's unilateral price is oscillating strongly with limited downside. Polyester开工率 is rising. After some PTA device incidents, it turns to a de - stocking pattern. PTA basis and spread are supported, but factory hedging may suppress the price [8] - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market. Supply and demand both increase, and ports turn to a stocking pattern. The overall unilateral price support is limited. High coal - based profits impact the valuation of oil - based sources [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures prices had different changes. For example, PX主力期货昨日收盘价 was 6866, down 0.17%; PTA主力 was 4772, down 0.25% [2] - **Futures Spreads**: PX11 - 1 spread yesterday closed at 72, up 4; PTA11 - 1 was - 10, down 2; MEG1 - 5 was - 39, down 1 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton yesterday, down 0.67 dollars; PTA in East China was 4727 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; MEG spot was 4507 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton yesterday, down 3.5 dollars; PTA processing margin was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan [2] Market Dynamics - **PX**: An East China factory postponed the restart of its PX and PTA devices. On September 1, Asian p - Xylene prices were basically stable, but concerns about upstream demand pressured the market. The Asian contract price negotiation for September p - Xylene cargoes failed to end by the end of August [2][3][4] - **PTA**: A 70 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted at the end of August; a 55 - ton and a 150 - ton device are restarting, and a 120 - ton device is expected to stop on September 4 [5] - **MEG**: The inventory at East China main ports was about 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons. Different ports had different inventory changes [5] - **Polyester**: A 50 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in South China restarted, and a 35 - ton device in Northeast China stopped. Some polyester devices in other regions restarted or are expected to restart. The sales of polyester yarn and staple fiber were weak today [5][6] Trend Intensity - p - Xylene trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 are in a rebound and consolidation phase, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is +1, indicating a moderately positive trend in the day - trading session of the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 2511 closed at 3965 yuan/ton during the day - session, up 32 yuan (+0.81%), and 3980 yuan/ton at night - session, up 19 yuan (+0.48%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3054 yuan/ton during the day - session, up 7 yuan (+0.23%), and 3066 yuan/ton at night - session, up 6 yuan (+0.20%). CBOT markets were closed on September 1st due to the Labor Day holiday [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal was 3070 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different basis spreads for different months; in East China, it was 3030 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), and in South China, it was 2990 - 3010 yuan/ton. The price changes compared to the previous day varied by region [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, down from 25.75 million tons two days ago. The inventory data was not available, and the previous week's inventory was 98.55 million tons [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The CBOT grain and oilseed markets were closed on September 1st, 2025, due to the US Labor Day holiday, and trading resumed on September 2nd [1]. - Analysts expect the US soybean crushing volume in July to reach 207.1 million bushels, setting a record high for the same period. This is higher than 197.1 million bushels in June and 193.46 million bushels in July last year, with a prediction range from 204.8 to 212 million bushels [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on September 2, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, and multiple commodity futures [2]. - The report also analyzes the performance of these futures on September 1, 2025, and gives expectations for the September trends of some futures' main continuous contracts [12][43]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On September 2, 2025,股指期货, gold, silver, industrial silicon, iron ore, crude oil, and palm oil futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to have a wide - range oscillation; copper futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate;螺纹钢and热卷futures are likely to have a weak - biased oscillation [2][3][4]. 2. Macro News - The SCO Summit achieved 24 outcomes, including the approval of the "SCO Development Strategy for the Next 10 Years (2026 - 2035)" [7]. - The "AI - Generated Synthetic Content Identification Measures" came into effect on September 1, 2025, and major platforms have introduced detailed rules [8]. - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was implemented on September 1, 2025, and some banks are optimistic about its impact [8]. - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high, and the July unemployment rate dropped to a historical low [8][9]. 3. Commodity Futures Information - On September 1, 2025, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.84% and COMEX silver futures up 2.46%. Silver prices have risen about 40% this year [9]. - On September 1, 2025,美油and布伦特原油futures rose due to supply concerns and a weak dollar [9]. - On September 1, 2025, most London base metals rose, but LME期铜fell 0.27% [10]. 4. Futures Market Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - On September 1, 2025,沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000股指期货had different performances, with some hitting new highs but facing resistance. It is expected that in September 2025, they will have a strong - biased oscillation [12][13][16]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On September 1, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. It is expected that on September 2, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a wide - range oscillation [36]. 4.3 Precious Metal Futures - On September 1, 2025,黄金and白银futures rose. It is expected that in September 2025, they will have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, and白银futures may hit a new high since listing [43][48]. 4.4 Base Metal Futures - On September 1, 2025,铜futures rose slightly,铝futures fell slightly, and industrial silicon futures rose slightly. Different expectations are given for their September trends [54][58][61]. 4.5 Other Commodity Futures - On September 1, 2025,螺纹钢,热卷,铁矿石,焦煤,玻璃,纯碱,原油,豆粕,豆油, and棕榈 oil futures had different performances, and corresponding trend expectations are provided for September 2, 2025, and some for September 2025 [74][76][80][84][87][91][94][100][103][106].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Fuel oil is in a narrow - range shock with a continued weak trend, while low - sulfur fuel oil opened higher at night, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to decline [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Change**: - FU2510 closed at 2,832 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day, and its settlement price was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [1]. - FU2511 closed at 2,837 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and its settlement price was 2,822 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - LU2510 closed at 3,456 yuan/ton, down 1.20%, and its settlement price was 3,458 yuan/ton, down 0.72% [1]. - LU2511 closed at 3,474 yuan/ton, down 0.72%, and its settlement price was 3,471 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2510 was 225,716, a decrease of 2,649, and the open interest was 57,599, a decrease of 10,713 [1]. - The trading volume of FU2511 was 68,717, an increase of 2,616, and the open interest was 38,165, an increase of 423 [1]. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 4,853, a decrease of 2,128, and the open interest was 12,351, a decrease of 464 [1]. - The trading volume of LU2511 was 98,818, an increase of 11,304, and the open interest was 70,209, an increase of 2,022 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The warehouse receipts of the whole fuel - oil market (FU) were 119,580, with no change, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 35,110, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - Singapore MOPS: High - sulfur (3.5%S) was 398.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.56%; low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 485.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.54% [1]. - Singapore Bunker: High - sulfur was 411.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.48%; low - sulfur was 499.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1]. - High - Chayla Bunker: High - sulfur was 394.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged; low - sulfur was 502.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.59% [1]. - Zhoushan Bunker: High - sulfur was 425.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.93%; low - sulfur was 518.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.77% [1]. - Shanghai Bunker: High - sulfur was 425.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.93%; low - sulfur was 518.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.77% [1]. - Tokyo Bunker: High - sulfur was 452.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.88%; low - sulfur was 522.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.57% [1]. - South Korea Bunker: High - sulfur was 441.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.23%; low - sulfur was 556.3 US dollars/ton, up 3.39% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - FU10 - 11 settlement spread was - 2 yuan/ton [1]. - LU10 - 11 settlement spread was - 13 yuan/ton [1]. - LU10 - FU10 settlement spread was 638 yuan/ton, with a difference of 14 yuan [1]. - FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread was - 11.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread was - 7.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread was 86.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.4 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with new orders supporting the expansion of manufacturing output, and domestic demand driving sales growth [7][8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, and the market continues to be bullish on the unilateral trend of gold and silver, with gold expected to reach $3,600 per ounce and silver to reach $45 per ounce [9][10]. - Black commodities: Strong macro - expectations are fully priced, and the valuation is facing a test from fundamentals. Short - term fundamentals may limit the upward drive of black commodity valuations, but potential policy - related positive risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: As of the latest data, COMEX silver reached a maximum of $41.76 per ounce, and COMEX gold reached $3,557 per ounce. SPDR Gold ETF had a weekly increase of 20.91 tons, and the net long - position ratio in the Shanghai gold market reached a record high [9][10]. - **Driving Factors**: Powell's dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts and the in - line PCE data have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts this year to 75bp. Technically, the breakthrough is the core driver of the upward movement [9]. 3.2 Black Commodities - **Fundamental Situation**: Inventory characteristics of various commodities may have shown signs of loosening, such as the inflection point of coking coal inventory, the slow start of iron ore port inventory accumulation, and the continuous accumulation of downstream steel product inventory. The expected resumption of production after the parade and high pig iron output may deepen inventory contradictions [11]. 3.3 Copper - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The spot price was firm due to a high premium [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Some copper mines and factories had production - related news such as maintenance completion and production resumption [21][23]. 3.4 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan, with a 0.16% increase. It is expected to trade in a range [24]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, which had an impact on the market [25]. 3.5 Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan, with a 0.15% decrease. The continuous decrease in inventory supported the price [27]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved [28]. 3.6 Tin - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan, with a 1.94% decrease. It is expected to trade in a range [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various macro - level news such as the performance of the stock and futures markets and international events [32]. 3.7 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3,008 yuan. The fundamentals of aluminum were weak, and alumina was in low - level oscillation [34]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB's inflation target and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had an impact on the market [36]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. They are expected to have narrow - range oscillations [37]. - **Industry News**: There were many news about nickel production in Indonesia, such as production suspension, quota adjustment, and environmental issues [37][38][39]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 75,540 yuan, and it is expected to continue its weak - oscillation trend due to the partial suspension of the "trade - in" program [43]. - **Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was adjusted [44][45]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,495 yuan, and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 52,285 yuan. Industrial silicon is recommended to short at high prices, and polysilicon's spot price increased with amplified market fluctuations [46][47]. - **Industry News**: Yunnan's new energy power - grid connection policy was released [47][48][49]. 3.11 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 12601 contract of iron ore closed at 766 yuan, with a 2.73% decrease. It is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to repeated macro - expectations [50]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,039 yuan, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,320 yuan. The rapid inventory accumulation led to price oscillations and corrections [52]. - **Industry News**: There were data on steel production, inventory, and demand in August, and the manufacturing supply index decreased [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures decreased, and the market sentiment was weak, with expectations of weak oscillations [56]. - **Industry News**: There were price and production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and South Africa's manganese ore export data [57][58]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,118.5 yuan, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,594.5 yuan. They are expected to have wide - range oscillations [59]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [59]. 3.15 Logs - **Market Performance**: Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [61]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [64]. 3.16 Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Performance**: The main contract of paraxylene closed at 6,866 yuan, PTA at 4,772 yuan, and MEG at 4,427 yuan. Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and PTA and MEG have trading strategies of long PTA and short MEG [65][66]. - **Market News**: There were price changes and trading situations of paraxylene and PTA in the Asian market, and the difficulty in contract price negotiations [67][68].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The "trade - in" part of lithium carbonate has been suspended, and the weak oscillation continues. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 75,540 yuan, down 1,460 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 2,426 lots, down 8,111 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 11,332 lots, down 5,803 lots from T - 1 [1] - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 75,560 yuan, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 540,295 lots, up 50,237 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 339,133 lots, down 7,472 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 31,197 lots, up 1,310 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,810 yuan, up 160 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,790 yuan, up 320 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 20 yuan, up 160 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 898 US dollars, up 4 US dollars from T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,950 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,050 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Consumer Products**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 113,900 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 117,950 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,256 yuan/ton, down 1,372 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,050 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - The automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou has been suspended since August 30, 2025. Consumers who obtained the new car's "Motor Vehicle Sales Unified Invoice" and the used car's "Second - hand Car Sales Unified Invoice" before August 29, 2025 (inclusive) can submit subsidy applications after the system upgrade of the "Sui Che Gou" WeChat mini - program [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of LPG remains loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1] - The spot price of propylene still has support, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,392 yesterday with a - 0.43% daily increase, and 4,426 in the night session with a 0.77% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,308 yesterday with a - 0.37% daily increase, and 4,344 in the night session with a 0.84% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,423 yesterday with a 0.22% daily increase, and 6,419 in the night session with a - 0.06% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,447 yesterday with a 0.09% daily increase, and 6,464 in the night session with a 0.26% increase [1] - **LPG Positions and Trading Volumes**: PG2510's trading volume yesterday was 85,463, a decrease of 11,933 from the previous day, and the position was 77,824, a decrease of 7,591; PG2511's trading volume was 22,324, an increase of 1,869, and the position was 35,102, an increase of 1,953; PL2601's trading volume was 5,133, an increase of 4,067, and the position was 6,835, an increase of 1,740; PL2602's trading volume was 76, an increase of 71, and the position was 849, with no change [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 138 yesterday, compared with 189 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 138 yesterday, compared with 189 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 192 yesterday, compared with 166 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 127 yesterday, compared with 141 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 52 yesterday, compared with 66 the previous day [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, compared with 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, compared with 49.0% before [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market Information - On September 1, 2025, the October CP paper - cargo price of propane was 534 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 508 US dollars/ton. The November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 539 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting PDH device maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; and many other companies with similar situations [7] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, including Shengli Oil Refinery in Shandong with a 70 - day maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, and many other factories with different maintenance schedules [7]