Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that the cotton market will show a fluctuating and moderately strong trend [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The cotton market is expected to maintain a fluctuating and moderately strong trend. The overall trading of cotton spot is average, and the basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is also general, and the order volume of the cotton fabric market has limited growth [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,025 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.51% and a night - session closing price of 14,085 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.43%. The trading volume was 685,282 lots, an increase of 1,815 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 715,524 lots, a decrease of 39,312 lots. The closing price of CY2511 was 20,020 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.60% and a night - session closing price of 20,065 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.22%. The trading volume was 11,403 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 23,962 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE US Cotton 12 was 66.53 cents/pound [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 with an increase of 74 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.36%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,973 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.38%. The price in Shandong was 15,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan compared to the previous day, an increase of 1.11%. The price in Hebei was 15,456 yuan/ton, an increase of 148 yuan compared to the previous day, an increase of 0.97%. The 3128B index was 15,479 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan compared to the previous day, an increase of 0.99%. The international cotton index M was 74.16 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.92%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton with no change, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.39% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 increased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot was average, and the basis remained relatively stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 was CF01 + 1150 - 1450 [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was general, the sales of spinning mills slowed down, and the market sentiment was more cautious. The price remained stable, and the quotations of spinning mills changed little. The peak - season feeling in the all - cotton fabric market was not obvious, the order volume of weaving factories increased limitedly, the export orders in August recovered, but the subsequent increase was limited. The improvement of domestic orders was not ideal, and a certain proportion of machines in small and medium - sized factories still produced spot goods. Weaving factories mainly focused on sales, and the willingness to hold prices was not strong [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures were closed due to a holiday [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1st, the shipping market was affected by news that the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump's tariff increase illegal, and there was concentrated short - position reduction after the opening. The freight rate index SCFIS closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The overall market loading rate remains above the warning line, and shipping companies' profit margins are still considerable at the current FAK level, so they have no intention to increase the number of blank sailings. The freight rate center in the second week of September has dropped to around $2000 - 2100/FEU, and there may be a further reduction of $300 - 400/FEU in late September. The freight rate trend in October depends on the blank - sailing intensity [10]. - Subjectively, it is believed that the probability of the freight rate in October falling below the low of $1700/FEU in May is high, and the valuation of the 2510 contract may be below 1247.05 points. If the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of $1300 - 1600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of sailings, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [10]. - In terms of strategies, pay attention to the long - spread opportunities between the 12 - 04 and 02 - 04 contracts, and consider lightly going long on the 2512 contract around 1500 points [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The container shipping index (European routes) showed strong performance yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1291.4 points, up 1.53%, with a reduction of 989 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1650.9 points, up 5.01%, with a reduction of 828 lots [8]. 2. Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS index closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, lower than expected, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, a decrease of 2.6%; the SCFI for the European route was $1481/TEU, a decrease of 11.2%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923/FEU, an increase of 17.0% [1]. 3. European Basic Port Freight Rates - In the second week of September, the freight rates for European basic ports remained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with an average FAK of about $2080/FEU, and the freight rate center for container volume/SPOT decreased by $100/FEU [9]. 4. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reached 298,000 TEU/week, a 6% decrease from August, significantly lower than the 14% decrease during the same period in 2024. In October, the number of pending voyages remained at 5, and there were 6 blank sailings. Without considering pending voyages, the average weekly capacity was 287,000 TEU/week [9]. - The overall market loading rate in late August was around 95%. Shipping companies generally relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and special offers for large - volume shipments, which intensified price competition, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue until the end of September [9]. 5. Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of European routes stopped falling on September 10th. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the market gave back the "strike" premium on the first trading day after the holiday. Shipping companies successively announced price increases in November and December, with the peak freight rate occurring in the first week of December [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to break through new highs, and silver is likely to reach its previous peak [2][4]. - Copper prices remain firm due to high domestic spot premiums [2][9]. - Zinc is predicted to trade within a range [2][12]. - Lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][15]. - Tin is expected to move within a range [2][18]. - The fundamentals of aluminum are weak, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel's price will fluctuate narrowly based on fundamental logic, with news influencing sentiment, and stainless - steel prices will move in a narrow range [2][26]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Movements**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 800.56, with a daily increase of 1.97%, and the night - session closing price was 801.58, with a night - session increase of 0.86%. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9775 yesterday, up 4.15%, and the night - session closing price was 9836.00, up 2.46% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Shanghai Silver 2510 both changed compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 increased by 167,929, and the open interest increased by 4,000 [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver both increased compared to the previous day, with Shanghai Gold increasing by 120 kilograms and Shanghai Silver increasing by 11,231 kilograms [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 2, indicating a strong upward trend [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 79,780, up 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 79,660, down 0.15%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 9,875, down 0.31% [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 7,420, and the open interest increased by 6,818. The trading volume of LME Copper 3M decreased by 12,738, and the open interest increased by 742 [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 1,212 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 25 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August S&P Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.5, and the eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Some copper mines have resumed operations or will complete maintenance work [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [11]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,175, up 0.16%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price was 2,814, up 0.97% [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 76, and the open interest decreased by 407. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 889, and the open interest increased by 1018 [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory remained unchanged, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons [12]. - **News**: China's August S&P Manufacturing PMI rebounded [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,855, down 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price was 1,997, up 0.45% [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 3,999, and the open interest increased by 1,835. The trading volume of LME Lead increased by 2,073, and the open interest decreased by 686 [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 524 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons [15]. - **News**: China's August S&P Manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. 3.5 Tin - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,240, down 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 274,320, up 0.20%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price was 35,060, up 0.31% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1,564, and the open interest decreased by 10,315. The trading volume of LME Tin decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [19]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 58 tons, and the LME Tin inventory increased by 145 tons [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple news events such as stock market trends, political events, and corporate developments are reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [21]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,645, down 95. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,008, down 28. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275, down 75 [22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There were changes in the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Alumina, and the aluminum alloy main contract [22]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.60 tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory remained unchanged [22]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB is expected to maintain price stability, and the eurozone's Manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 0, alumina has a trend intensity of - 1, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,450, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 [26]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There were changes in the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Nickel and the stainless - steel main contract [26]. - **Industry News**: There are various news about nickel production in Canada and Indonesia, such as potential export stoppages, new project production, environmental issues, and production suspensions [26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and news may stimulate market sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices will move in a narrow - range oscillation [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: Some trade - in programs are suspended, and the weak oscillation will continue [2][11] - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Spot quotes are rising, and the market volatility is increasing [2][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950, with changes of 135 compared to T - 1, 70 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the main contract was 164,893, with corresponding changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events occurred, including potential nickel export suspension from Canada to the US, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering trial production, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesian mining policies, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron plants, and a steel mill in Shandong reducing production [5][6][7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 75,540, with a decrease of 1,460 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also showed significant changes [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and the car "replacement and renewal" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was suspended [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,495, up 105 compared to T - 1. The PS2511 contract also had corresponding price and volume changes. There were also data on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Yunnan implemented a new policy on the market - based reform of new - energy on - grid electricity prices [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and for polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17]

Report Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: With no new fundamental drivers, consider buying on dips [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and the market is undergoing a corrective consolidation [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans [2][9]. - **Soybean**: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase [2][9]. - **Corn**: The market is expected to move sideways [2][12]. - **Sugar**: The market is waiting for news guidance [2][16]. - **Cotton**: The market is expected to maintain a sideways - to - bullish trend [2][20]. - **Eggs**: There is strong near - term trading competition [2][25]. - **Hogs**: The market has seen a price increase on reduced volume, and the sustainability needs to be confirmed [2][27]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][31]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) and 9,482 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.11% and 1.63% increase respectively; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton (day session) and 8,396 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.10% and 0.07% change respectively [4]. - **News**: From January to July 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.364 billion tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [5]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE豆一2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,980 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.81% and + 0.48% increase respectively; DCE豆粕2601 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,066 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.23% and + 0.20% increase respectively [9]. - **News**: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in July 2025 to reach 207.1 million bushels, a record high for the same period [11]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 closed at 2,255 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,280 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.99% and 1.11% increase respectively; C2511 closed at 2,193 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,207 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.27% and 0.64% increase respectively [13]. - **News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, and Guangdong Shekou prices also showed little change [14]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The original sugar price was 16.34 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,609 yuan/ton [16]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average [16]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,025 yuan/ton (day session) and 14,085 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 1.51% and 0.43% change respectively; CY2511 closed at 20,020 yuan/ton (day session) and 20,065 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.60% and 0.22% change respectively [20]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading was generally weak, and the cotton yarn market also showed a slowdown in sales [21]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg2510 closed at 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, with a - 0.48% change; Egg2601 closed at 3,320 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.00% change [25]. - **No significant news provided specifically for eggs in the report.** Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot price was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot price was 15,540 yuan/ton; futures prices for different contracts also showed various changes [27]. - **News**: At the end of August and beginning of September, large - scale hog farms significantly reduced supply, leading to a price rebound. However, supply pressure remains in September and October [29]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 closed at 8,022 yuan/ton, with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7,830 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase [31]. - **News**: New peanuts are expected to be listed around mid - to - late September, and the current spot market shows stable to slightly stronger prices in some areas [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore: Subject to fluctuating macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range oscillations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Due to rapid inventory accumulation, steel prices will oscillate and correct [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: With poor market sentiment, they will show weak oscillations [2][9]. - Coke and coking coal: They will experience wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Logs: They will show repeated oscillations [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) was 766.0 yuan/ton, down 21.5 yuan/ton (-2.73%), and the position decreased by 19,658 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices rose. The basis and spreads also changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,039 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-2.19%), and the position decreased by 196,302 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.37%), and the position decreased by 85,585 hands. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of August 28, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, and inventory increased by 16.35 tons; hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.5 tons, and inventory increased by 4.02 tons. In mid - August, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed [7][8]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 1, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some steel mills' procurement prices of ferrosilicon decreased. In July, South Africa's manganese ore exports increased [10][11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) declined, with decreases of 32.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) and 48.5 yuan/ton (-3.0%) respectively. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [12]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of both coke and coking coal is 0 [12]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [17]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is - 1 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the crude oil market's restorative rebound and the potential reversals in various spreads. It analyzes the price dynamics, supply - demand fundamentals, and key events across different regions in the oil and refined product markets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Market Price and Dynamics - In Europe, Mediterranean Naphtha is at 463.715€ /mt, Dated Brent is at 67.93$/b (-0.54$), with OPEC +减产 execution rate at 117% and increased September loading plans after North Sea maintenance. In Asia, Dubai (Oct) is at 70.50$/b (+0.80$) due to strong Chinese strategic reserve demand and high Indian refinery throughput, and ESPO is at 64.02$/b (+0.64$). In America, WTI USGC is at 65.91$/b (-0.55$) with eased export congestion and low Cushing inventory, and Mars is at 64.20$/b (+0.24$) affected by hurricane and pipeline maintenance [2]. 3.2 Refined Oil Product Market Price and Dynamics - For gasoline, in Europe, FOB AR 92RON is at 725.50$/mt (unchanged), in Asia, Singapore 92RON is at 79.40$/b (+1.13$), and in America, NYH CBOB is at 217.89¢/gal (-2.13¢). For diesel, European 10ppm ULSD is at 682.25$/mt (+0.75$), Asian 10ppm Gasoil is at 86.33$/b (+0.58$), and American USGC ULSD is at 221.23¢/gal (+4.11¢). For aviation fuel, European Jet A - 1 is at 690.00$/mt (+1.75$), Asian Singapore Jet is at 84.50$/b (+0.46$), and American USGC Jet is at 205.70¢/gal (-4.98¢). For fuel oil, European 3.5% FO is at 387.75$/mt (+4.25$), Asian 380CST is at 387.90$/mt (+8.99$), and American USGC HSFO is at 59.93$/b (-0.21$) [4]. 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - In terms of supply, Europe has limited Russian supply but increased production from the Norwegian Johan Sverdrup field; Asia has refinery maintenance and delayed new plant commissioning; America has record - high production and eased pipeline bottlenecks. For demand, Europe has growing diesel power generation demand, Asia has strong summer gasoline consumption, and America's demand is export - led. Regarding inventory, Europe has ARA diesel inventory at 208.5 tons, Asia's Singapore light distillate inventory dropped 11.01% weekly, and America's Gulf of Mexico crude inventory is at a five - year low. In transportation, European Baltic freight rates are rising, Asian VLCC Middle - East to East - Asia rates are stable, and American pipeline capacity bottlenecks are alleviated [5][6]. 3.4 Key Spreads - Brent - Dubai spread is at 3.25$/b (+0.30$), indicating a shortage of light - sweet crude. WTI - Brent spread is at - 2.82$/b (-0.25$) due to increased quality differences in US crude. Gasoil - Naphtha spread is at 18.75$/mt (+1.20$) with weak petrochemical feedstock demand. ULSD - Jet spread is at 0.97¢/gal (-0.15¢) as the aviation industry's recovery lags [6]. 3.5突发事件 or Potential Impact Factors - The attack in Ukraine led to the shutdown of the Tuapse refinery and a halving of Black Sea CPC blend exports. The Mexican refinery restart was delayed, increasing US gasoline exports to Mexico. US sanctions on India affected Russian oil procurement. A hurricane warning in the US Gulf of Mexico affected production and increased insurance premiums [7]. 3.6 Other Market News - Angola's Cabinda refinery will start production by the end of the year. Oil traders expect OPEC + to maintain output this weekend. Saudi Aramco and SOMO stopped supplying oil to an Indian refiner. Indian officials defended their Russian oil imports. Shandong independent refinery crude arrivals decreased. Syrian oil exports occurred for the first time in 14 years [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Index futures may oscillate and rebound [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **Market Indexes**: On August 31, the CSI 300 closed at 4496.76, up 0.74%; the SSE 50 at 2976.47, up 0.53%; the CSI 500 at 7043.94, up 0.47%; and the CSI 1000 at 7438.68, down 0.11% [1] - **Futures Contracts**: The four major index futures contracts showed mixed performance. IF rose 1.57%, IH rose 1.19%, IC rose 1.1%, and IM rose 0.6%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1] 2. Trading Volume and Open Interest Analysis - **Trading Volume**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 2170 lots, IH increased by 258 lots, IC decreased by 24970 lots, and IM decreased by 54464 lots [2] - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF increased by 3011 lots, IH decreased by 474 lots, IC decreased by 591 lots, and IM decreased by 20646 lots [2] 3. Basis Analysis - **Basis Charts**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts were presented in charts, showing the changes in basis over time [4] 4. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **Long and Short Positions**: The long and short position changes of the top 20 members in each futures contract were provided, with some increasing and some decreasing [5] 5. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH was 1, and that of IC and IM was also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: There were several important events, including an executive meeting of the State Council, a symposium by the CSRC, and Sino - US trade talks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%. The A - share market had a turnover of 2.83 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 7.97% in August [6]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 01 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20740 | -10 | 110 | -50 | 555 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20725 | - | l | - | । | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2619 | 12 | -3 | -20 | 120 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 121242 | -13332 | -32099 | -23367 | -49296 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 236608 | -8420 | -679 | -90874 ...

品 研 第 2025 年 09 月 01 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com (基本面跟踪) 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 右安期赏研 期货研究 FETH H 的担忧继续笼罩着大豆市场。上周大豆价格攀升至两个月高点,受到市场预期中国将恢复购买美国大豆的 提振。但目前尚未确认任何此类采购。未来几天，交易商将密切关注中美贸易谈判,中国高级贸易谈判代 表李成钢将访问华盛顿。一位分析师称,由于中国需求不足，大豆价格受到限制,在中国采购美国大豆之 前,大豆市场会一直受到压制。因公共假期,美国市场将于下周一休市。交易商在月底和长周末到来之前 调整仓位。(汇易网) 商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢与美国政府部门相关官员以及工商界代表举行会谈会见。当 地时间8月27日-29日,商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢访问美国;与美国财政部、商务部和 贸易代表办公室相关官员举行会谈。双方围绕落实中美两国元首通话共识,就中美经贸关系、落实中美经 贸会谈共识等问题进行了交流沟通。李成钢强调，中美双方应秉持相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢原则, 继续 ...