金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 19 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 热轧卷板：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | （%） 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 HC2605 | 3,125 | 43 34 | 1.40 1.05 | | 期 货 | | 3,277 | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,215,549 | 1,575,943 | -28,786 | | | HC2605 | 586,127 | 1,189,556 | -10,392 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3300 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2] Report's Core View - The industry governance of the photovoltaic industry has entered a critical period. The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further strengthen production - capacity regulation, promote the construction of a unified national market, manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects, and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. It will also improve the price monitoring mechanism, crack down on illegal price - related and marketing behaviors, and strengthen product quality supervision [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605's closing price was 8,645 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 348,477 lots, and an open interest of 207,780 lots. PS2605's closing price was 59,300 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 398,819 lots, and an open interest of 139,860 lots [2] - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +555 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to the first continuous contract spread of polysilicon was 50.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,681.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.3 million tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 29.3 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - At the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference on December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen production - capacity regulation, improve price monitoring, and crack down on illegal behaviors in the photovoltaic industry [4] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The de - stocking of lithium carbonate is less than expected, and attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level decline [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 104,440 yuan, down 2,380 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 37,631 lots, down 18,448 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 68,869 lots, down 10,585 lots from T - 1 [1] - **2605 Contract**: The closing price was 106,160 yuan, down 2,460 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,013,916 lots, down 144,695 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 672,711 lots, up 4,122 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: It was 15,636 lots, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: Spot - 2601 was - 6,890 yuan, up 2,880 yuan from T - 1; Spot - 2605 was - 8,610 yuan, up 2,960 yuan from T - 1; 2601 - 2605 was - 1,720 yuan, up 80 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,326 US dollars, up 6 US dollars from T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,825 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,550 yuan, up 500 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 94,950 yuan, up 500 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,690 yuan/ton, up 519 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,550 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 94,950 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,045 tons, an increase of 47 tons from last week. The industry - wide inventory was 110,425 tons, with a de - stocking of 1,044 tons from last week [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 究 棉花：震荡偏强 关注下游需求 20251219 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 13,960 | 0.25% | 13965 | 0.04% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,045 | -0.20% | 20015 | -0.15% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.57 | 0.17% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 256,451 | -126,344 | 1,113,433 | 2,453 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 5,907 | -1,999 | 22,824 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【趋势强度】 燃料油趋势强度：0；低硫燃料油趋势强度：0 燃料油：短线盘整，下方存在支撑 低硫燃料油：窄幅震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差 收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2601 | 元/吨 | 2, 403 | 0. 80% | | 2.407 | 1.86% | | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2.435 | 1.86% | | 2, 433 | 1.93% | | | | LU2601 | 九/晚 | 2,901 | 1. 29% | | 2.885 | 1.05% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 2.926 | 1.05% | | 2.906 | 1.18% | | | 期货 | | | ...

Report Title - LPG: Short-term firmness, long-term pressure; Propylene: Short-term narrow adjustment [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The LPG market shows short-term firmness but faces long-term pressure, and the propylene market will experience short-term narrow adjustments [1][2] Market Data Summary Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,229 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.50%, and its night session closed at 4,236 with a 0.17% increase; PG2602 closed at 4,109 yesterday with a 0.61% increase, and its night session closed at 4,120 with a 0.27% increase; PL2601 closed at 5,977 yesterday with a 0.67% increase, and its night session closed at 5,942 with a -0.59% decrease; PL2602 closed at 5,789 yesterday with a 0.45% increase, and its night session closed at 5,758 with a -0.54% decrease; PL2603 closed at 5,770 yesterday with a 0.45% increase, and its night session closed at 5,728 with a -0.73% decrease [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601's trading volume yesterday was 17,453, a decrease of 15,323 from the previous day, and its open interest was 13,363, a decrease of 5,993; PG2602's trading volume was 44,507, a decrease of 968, and its open interest was 82,566, an increase of 3,372; PL2601's trading volume was 243, an increase of 120, and its open interest was 1,384, a decrease of 162; PL2602's trading volume was 11,065, a decrease of 6,057, and its open interest was 8,038, a decrease of 1,166; PL2603's trading volume was 31,970, a decrease of 3,179, and its open interest was 17,498, a decrease of 371 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 321 (previous day: 312); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG01 contract was 371 (previous day: 392); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was -22 (previous day: 78); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was -52 (previous day: 38); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -102 (previous day: -12) [2] Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0% (last week: 72.9%); the MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (previous: 69.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 35.8% (unchanged) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 representing the most bearish view and 2 representing the most bullish view [6] Market News CP Paper Cargo Prices - On December 17, 2025, the January CP paper cargo price for propane was 499 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 492 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The February CP paper cargo price for propane was 495 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH plants have maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., and others, with some starting as early as 2023 and some scheduled for 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [8] LPG Plant Maintenance Plans - Several domestic LPG plants have maintenance plans, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou. The maintenance durations range from 30 to 72 days [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester production remains at a high level, there is a supply gap in PX, and profits have reached a new high. PXN has hit a new high [11]. - PTA: With a tight supply - demand situation for the cost - side PX and high polyester production, PTA's valuation continues to rise. It is recommended to operate within the 4500 - 4800 range and exit the 5 - 9 positive spread [11]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol production has continued to rise this week. The supply reduction is insufficient to change the future inventory accumulation pattern, resulting in a range - bound market [11]. - Rubber: It shows a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonate with the commodity market, causing the rubber price to surge multiple times. However, high inventory restricts the upside potential [13][15]. - Synthetic rubber: The upward trend has slowed down. The fundamental data has shown marginal weakness, and inventory data for butadiene and butadiene rubber is slightly bearish [16][18]. - Asphalt: It is in a low - level oscillation state. The factory production and inventory rates have changed slightly, and the price is affected by the overall market and supply - demand relationship [20][21]. - LLDPE: The supply elasticity is limited, and the valuation continues to face pressure. The raw material price fluctuates, downstream demand weakens marginally, and the supply side may face pressure from high capacity and weak demand [34][35]. - PP: The factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the futures price moves sideways. The cost support is limited, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak [37][38]. - Caustic soda: It will still face pressure in the future. It has a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts before the Spring Festival [40][41]. - Pulp: It shows a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The coniferous pulp price is affected by futures market capital games, while the broad - leaf pulp price is supported by rising external prices and tight domestic supply. Port inventory has decreased, but the core contradiction lies in supply and demand [46][47][49]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable. The spot price is mainly stable, the market trading is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [51][52]. - Methanol: It has support during the oscillation. The port inventory has decreased, and the macro - situation provides some support [54][56]. - Urea: It has support during the oscillation. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern with support in the medium term [59][60][61]. - Soda ash: There are few changes in the spot market. The production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable, with low - price restocking [63][64]. - LPG: It is firm in the short term but faces pressure in the long - term trend. The price and inventory data have changed, and there are multiple factors affecting the market [67][68]. - Propylene: It is in a short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and related industrial data have shown certain changes [68]. - PVC: The rebound is difficult to sustain. It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and although there is a short - term rebound space, the overall situation is difficult to change in the short term [76][77]. - Fuel oil: It is in short - term consolidation with support at the lower level. The futures price and spot price have changed, and the market shows a certain support [79][80]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It shows a narrow - range fluctuation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external spot market has narrowed [80]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in an oscillatory market. The futures price fluctuates, and the freight rate, shipping capacity, and demand have all shown certain characteristics [82][90]. - Staple fiber: It is in a short - term low - level oscillation and faces pressure in the medium term. The futures price rises, and the spot market shows certain trading characteristics [93]. - Bottle chips: It is in a short - term low - level oscillation and faces pressure in the medium term. The upstream raw material futures rise, and the spot market trading is average [94]. - Offset printing paper: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [96][97]. - Pure benzene: It shows a short - term oscillatory pattern. The inventory has increased, and the price has slightly decreased [101][102][103]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: The closing prices, price changes, and spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG futures and spot markets have changed. For example, the PX main contract closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The PX price has increased, and the PX - naphtha price difference has reached a new high. The production of PTA and MEG has shown certain changes [6][9]. - **Trend and Recommendations**: PX profits are at a new high, PTA's valuation rises, and MEG is in a range - bound market [11]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of rubber futures have changed. The spot price of natural rubber has increased slightly [13]. - **Industry News**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonate with the commodity market, and the price has surged multiple times. High inventory restricts the upside potential [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of synthetic rubber futures have changed. The prices of butadiene and synthetic rubber have decreased slightly [16]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased, and the upward trend has slowed down [17][18]. Asphalt - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of asphalt futures have changed. The factory production and inventory rates have slightly increased [21]. - **Market Information**: The inventory of asphalt sample factories has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The production rate is expected to change [32][33]. LLDPE - **Market Data**: The closing price of LLDPE futures has slightly decreased, and the spot price has also declined. The basis has weakened [34]. - **Market Situation**: The raw material price fluctuates, downstream demand weakens marginally, and the supply side may face pressure [35]. PP - **Market Data**: The closing price of PP futures has increased slightly, and the spot price has changed little. The basis has weakened [37]. - **Market Situation**: The cost support is limited, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak [38]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The futures price of caustic soda has rebounded, and the spot price has declined. The basis has changed [40]. - **Market Situation**: It has a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is weak, facing pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts [41]. Pulp - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of pulp futures have changed. The spot price of pulp has changed slightly [46]. - **Industry News**: The coniferous pulp price is affected by futures market capital games, and the broad - leaf pulp price is supported by external factors. Port inventory has decreased [47][49]. Glass - **Market Data**: The closing price of glass futures has increased slightly, and the spot price remains stable. The basis has changed [52]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price is mainly stable, the market trading is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The closing price of methanol futures has increased slightly, and the spot price has changed little. The basis has strengthened [54]. - **Market Situation**: The port inventory has decreased, and the macro - situation provides some support [56]. Urea - **Market Data**: The closing price of urea futures has increased slightly, and the spot price has changed little. The basis and spreads have changed [59]. - **Market Situation**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern with support in the medium term [60][61]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The closing price of soda ash futures has increased slightly, and the spot price remains stable. The basis and spreads have changed [64]. - **Market Situation**: The production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable, with low - price restocking [64]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of LPG and propylene futures have changed. The related industrial data such as PDH production rate has also changed [68]. - **Market Information**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane have decreased, and there are multiple device maintenance plans [73][74][75]. PVC - **Market Data**: The futures price of PVC has rebounded, and the spot price has changed little. The basis and spreads have changed [76]. - **Market Situation**: It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and although there is a short - term rebound space, the overall situation is difficult to change in the short term [77]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures have changed. The spot price has increased [80]. - **Market Situation**: Fuel oil is in short - term consolidation, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a narrow - range fluctuation, with a narrowing price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the container shipping index futures have changed. The freight rate index has shown certain changes [82]. - **Market Situation**: The futures price fluctuates, and the freight rate, shipping capacity, and demand have all shown certain characteristics. The 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 1600 - 1800 points [90][91]. Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of staple fiber and bottle chips futures have changed. The spot price has changed slightly [93]. - **Market Situation**: The futures price of staple fiber rises, and the spot market shows certain trading characteristics. The upstream raw material futures of bottle chips rise, and the spot market trading is average [93][94]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of offset printing paper futures have changed. The spot price remains stable [96]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [97][98]. Pure Benzene - **Market Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of pure benzene futures have changed. The spot price has decreased slightly [101]. - **Market Situation**: The inventory has increased, and the price has slightly decreased [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [1][2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [1][2]. - Copper: With decreasing internal and external inventories, prices are supported [1][2]. - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [1][2]. - Lead: Decreasing inventories support prices [1][2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [1][2]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [1][2]. - Alumina: Slightly declining [1][2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Platinum: With continuous inflows into ETFs, prices are oscillating upwards [1][2]. - Palladium: Successfully breaking through previous highs, with strong upward momentum [1][2]. - Nickel: The structural surplus is shifting, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [1][2]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [1][2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: - For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 980.50 with a daily increase of 0.08%, and the night - session closing price was 980.20 with a 0.02% increase [4]. - For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15521 with a daily increase of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 15228.00 with a - 1.42% decrease [4]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged, and silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) also remained unchanged [4]. - Gold and silver inventories showed different changes, with Shanghai gold inventory decreasing by 6 kg and Comex silver inventory decreasing by 895,355 ounces [4]. - Spreads of gold and silver contracts also showed various changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation slowed more than expected, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England had different policy stances [5][9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 92,600 with a - 0.24% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 92870 with a 0.29% increase [10]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai copper index decreased, while the trading volume of LME copper 3M electronic disk increased [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Both Shanghai copper and LME copper inventories decreased, with LME copper's注销仓单 ratio decreasing by 1.14% [10]. - Various copper spreads showed different changes, such as the Shanghai copper spot to LME cash spread decreasing by 215 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation slowed, and there were industry developments like Korea Zinc's investment plan and Peru's copper production increase [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 23035 with a 0.26% daily increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closing price was 3071.5 with a 1.20% increase [13]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc decreased compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 1920 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased by 1700 tons [13]. - Spreads such as Shanghai 0 zinc升贴水 increased by 20, and LME CASH - 3M升贴水 decreased by 5.1 [13]. - **News**: Trump's remarks on the Fed chair and US inflation data were reported [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16785 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closing price was 1961 with a 0.98% increase [16]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai lead and LME lead decreased compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Both Shanghai lead and LME lead inventories decreased, with LME lead注销仓单 also decreasing by 3450 tons [16]. - Spreads such as Shanghai 1 lead升贴水 remained unchanged, and LME CASH - 3M升贴水 increased by 0.97 [16]. - **News**: US inflation data and ECB policy were mentioned [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 334,380 with a 1.76% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 338,950 with a 1.18% increase [19]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 76,691 compared to the previous day [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Both Shanghai tin and LME tin inventories increased, with LME tin's注销仓单 ratio decreasing by 0.38% [19]. - Spreads such as SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 9,900 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, news about US inflation, central bank policies, etc. were reported [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: - For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21955 with a 40 increase compared to the previous day, and the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2917 with an 11 increase [24]. - For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2553 with a - 5 decrease [24]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21110 with a 65 increase [24]. - Trading volumes and positions of these metals showed different changes [24]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Aluminum inventories in different places showed different trends, and spreads such as LME aluminum cash - 3M价差 and near - month contract to consecutive - one contract spreads also changed [24]. - **News**: ECB and Bank of England policies were reported [25]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: - Platinum futures prices showed an upward trend, with the closing price of platinum futures 2606 at 542.60 with a 2.85% increase [27]. - Palladium prices also increased, with the closing price of New York lithium main - continuous at 1778.50 with a 5.05% increase [27]. - Trading volumes and positions of platinum and palladium showed different changes [27]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Platinum and palladium ETF holdings increased, and spreads such as PT9995 to PT2606价差 and 人民币现货包金价格 to PD2606价差 changed [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation data, central bank policies, and other news were reported [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 113,940 with a 140 increase compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,420 with a 40 increase [31]. - Trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel decreased compared to the previous day [31]. - **Industry - related Data**: - Various prices in the nickel industry chain, such as 1 imported nickel, 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron, etc., showed different changes [31]. - In the stainless steel industry, prices of 304/2B卷 - 毛边, 304/2B卷 - 切边, etc., also changed [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about Indonesian nickel - related policies, China's import subsidy suspension, and US tariff threats [31][33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report The report offers comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, providing investors with reference for trading decisions [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation data and central bank policies [2][5]. - **Silver**: Adjusting at a high level, trend strength is 0. Silver prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [2][5]. - **Platinum**: ETFs are continuously flowing in, and prices are oscillating upwards, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. - **Palladium**: Successfully breaking through the previous high, with strong upward momentum, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, providing support for prices, trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Moving sideways in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction is supporting prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions, trend strength is 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating within a range, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Alumina**: Slightly declining, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Nickel**: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but some products are affected by it. For example, asphalt is in a low - level oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][78]. - **PTA**: Cost support is relatively strong, with a 4500 - 4800 range operation suggested, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend is slowing down, trend strength is 0 [2][74]. - **LLDPE**: Supply elasticity is limited, and valuation continues to be under pressure, trend strength is 0 [2][92]. - **PP**: Factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the market is moving sideways, trend strength is 0 [2][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: There will still be pressure in the later stage, trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Paper Pulp**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength is 0 [2][108]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][111]. - **Urea**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, trend strength is 0 [2][119]. - **LPG**: Strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term, trend strength is 0 [2][123]. - **Propylene**: Narrowly adjusting in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][124]. - **PVC**: The rebound is difficult to sustain, trend strength is 0 [2][132]. - **Fuel Oil**: Consolidating in the short - term with support below, trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrowly oscillating, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrowing, trend strength is 0 [2][136]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May rebound in the short - term and is searching for a bottom while oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: Weak performance of US soybeans, and it is difficult for soybean oil to stabilize, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, trend strength is 0 [2][169]. - **Sugar**: Weakly operating, trend strength is - 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating with an upward bias, attention should be paid to downstream demand, trend strength is 0 [2][69][178]. - **Eggs**: Maintaining an oscillating trend, trend strength is 0 [2][184]. - **Hogs**: The peak demand during the Winter Solstice has passed, trend strength is - 1 [2][186]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases, trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: In an oscillating market, trend strength is 0 [2][138]. Fibers - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach, trend strength is 0 [2][151]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][156].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. The overall trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The overall open interest of each index also decreased. The market is affected by factors such as A - share index differentiation, policy information at home and abroad, and central bank decisions [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4552.8, down 0.59%. The IF2512 contract closed at 4550.4, down 0.73%, with a basis of - 2.39, and its trading volume decreased by 31440 and open interest decreased by 24245 [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2998.5, up 0.23%. The IH2512 contract closed at 2995, down 0.02%, with a basis of - 3.52, and its trading volume decreased by 13480 and open interest decreased by 11717 [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 7100.8, down 0.52%. The IC2512 contract closed at 7101, down 0.71%, with a basis of 0.16, and its trading volume decreased by 29672 and open interest decreased by 22568 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 7272.4, down 0.22%. The IM2512 contract closed at 7275.4, down 0.26%, with a basis of 3, and its trading volume decreased by 45179 and open interest decreased by 35409 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 43587 lots, IH by 16253 lots, IC by 38325 lots, and IM by 65504 lots [2] - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF decreased by 7327 lots, IH by 8002 lots, IC by 8257 lots, and IM by 18274 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member's Open Interest Changes in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long positions of IF2512 decreased by 16327, and the short positions decreased by 19569 with a net change of - 4749 in short positions [5] - For IH contracts, the long positions of IH2512 decreased by 8781, and the short positions decreased by 9176 with a net change of - 5721 in short positions [5] - For IC contracts, the long positions of IC2512 decreased by 16708, and the short positions decreased by 18402 with a net change of - 5523 in short positions [5] - For IM contracts, the long positions of IM2512 decreased by 25000, and the short positions decreased by 28272 [5] 3.4 Market Trends and Driving Factors - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **A - share Market**: A - share market showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 3876.37 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, down from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.12% to 25498.13 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.73% to 5418.29 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.02% to 8841.51 points. The market trading volume was HK$1623.77 billion, down from HK$1831.41 billion the previous day [7] - **Policy Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. Trump said that the next Fed chair nominee will support "substantial" rate cuts [7] - **Central Bank Decisions**: The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% [7][8] - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14% to 47951.85 points, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.79% to 6774.76 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.38% to 23006.36 points [8]