投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6974 -0.56% | 217.926 。 1 3 1778 | | 价差 | | 昨日价差 | ◎前日价差 | | | 01合约基差 | -144 € | -170 | | | 01-05合约价差 | -21 | -13 | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | | | 华北 | 6800 - 6980 | 6860 - 7000 | | | 华东 | 6830 - 7000 | 6850 - 7000 | | | 华南 | 6800 - 7060 | 6840 - 7040 | 品 研 2025 年 9 月 1 日 中期趋势仍有压 短期震荡。 资料来源:卓创资讯,隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场继续小跌,幅度在 10-30元/吨。PP 期货延续回调对业者入市信心有压制,加之上游企业 下调厂价， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - For LPG, with increasing put - option trading volume and decreasing volatility skew, buy put options and sell out - of - the - money call options for directional trading in a weak and volatile market [1] - For cotton, with increasing call - option holding volume and significantly increasing put - option trading volume, and decreasing volatility skew from a high level, sell at - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money call options for protection [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Futures Market - Corn (c2511) closed at 2191 with a 6 - point increase, trading volume decreased by 193,655 to 505,054, and holding volume decreased by 9,015 to 983,279 [2] - Other agricultural products like bean meal, rapeseed meal, etc., also have their respective closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and holding volume changes [2] Option Market - Corn option: The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 84,638 to 58,755, the PCR of trading volume was 0.4983, and the PCR of holding volume was 0.408 [3] - Other agricultural product options also have their corresponding trading volume, PCR, and holding volume data [3] Option Quantification Indicators - Corn: The remaining trading days of the main contract are 34, the at - the - money volatility is 10.73% (down 0.09%), and the ROE quantile is 88.33% [4] - Other agricultural products also have their own option quantification indicators [4] Energy and Chemicals Futures Market - PTA (ta2601) closed at 4784 with an 8 - point decrease, trading volume decreased by 28,869 to 602,595, and holding volume decreased by 37,473 to 905,041 [5] - Other energy and chemical products also have their futures market data [5] Option Market - PTA option: The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 55,100 to 210,432, the PCR of trading volume was 0.8751, and the PCR of holding volume was 0.6143 [6] - Other energy and chemical product options also have their option market data [6] Option Quantification Indicators - PTA: The remaining trading days of the main contract are 9, the at - the - money volatility is 14.41% (down 1.11%), and the 60 - day quantile is 1.67% [7] - Other energy and chemical products also have their option quantification indicators [7] Ferrous Metals Futures Market - Iron ore (i2601) closed at 787.5 with a 3 - point decrease, trading volume decreased by 78,013 to 215,248, and holding volume increased by 11,180 to 473,608 [8] - Other ferrous metals also have their futures market data [8] Option Market - Iron ore option: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 3,455 to 123,929, the PCR of trading volume was 0.666, and the PCR of holding volume was 1.123 [9] - Other ferrous metal options also have their option market data [9] Option Quantification Indicators - Iron ore: The remaining trading days of the main contract are 12, the at - the - money volatility is 18.58% (down 0.18%), and the 60 - day quantile is 50.0% [10] - Other ferrous metals also have their option quantification indicators [10] Non - Ferrous Metals Futures Market - Gold (au2510) closed at 785.12 with a 1.9 - point increase, trading volume decreased by 2,446 to 145,863, and holding volume decreased by 7,778 to 136,691 [11] - Other non - ferrous metals also have their futures market data [11] Option Market - Gold option: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 12,674 to 58,442, the PCR of trading volume was 0.5299, and the PCR of holding volume was 0.8226 [12] - Other non - ferrous metal options also have their option market data [12] Option Quantification Indicators - Gold: The remaining trading days of the main contract are 18, the at - the - money volatility is 12.08% (up 0.19%), and the 60 - day quantile is 21.67% [13] - Other non - ferrous metals also have their option quantification indicators [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - PX: Long PX and short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [6] - PTA: Unilateral price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, focus on long PTA and short PX for the November contract [7] - MEG: Unilateral oscillating market, avoid chasing long positions, overvalued above 4550, long PTA and short MEG [8] 2. Core Views - PX prices fluctuated this week, with the decline faster and larger than expected due to the halt of the positive feedback of terminal fabric price increases. Asian PX operating rate changed little, and domestic supply is expected to increase marginally in September [6] - PTA prices also fluctuated this week, with the decline exceeding expectations because of concerns about the peak - season performance and slow recovery of polyester operating rate. PTA has shifted to a destocking pattern, and its basis and calendar spread are supported [7] - MEG is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with ports shifting to a stocking pattern. The 09 contract has limited support for the overall price, and the current polyester operating rate expectations are lowered [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX closed at 6878 with a - 0.12% change, PTA at 4784 (-0.17%), MEG at 4466 (0.02%), PF at 6500 (-0.40%), and SC at 485.2 (0.73%) [1] - **Calendar Spreads**: PX9 - 1 closed at - 108, down 156 from the previous day; PTA9 - 1 at - 62 (-6); MEG9 - 1 at - 37 (+4); PF9 - 1 at - 106 (-10); SC9 - 10 at - 8.2 (+0.5) [1] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 848.67 (unchanged), PTA in East China at 4740 (-35), MEG at 4534 (+9), naphtha MOPJ at 597.38 (+3.5), and Dated Brent at 67.85 (+0.4) [1] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 254.79 (-9), PTA processing margin at 221.67 (-29.59), staple fiber processing margin at 137.74 (-18.09), bottle - chip processing margin at - 51.65 (+38.94), and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread at - 6.01 (unchanged) [1] Market Dynamics - PX spot prices remained unchanged as there were no clear bullish or bearish drivers. The bearish sentiment in the crude oil market limited the increase in Asian PX prices due to concerns about potential consumer price inflation related to US tariff policies [1][2] - In the polyester industry, some polyester bottle - chip plants had restarted, shut down, or adjusted production in September. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 29th were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average [4][5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on September 1st, 2025, including股指期货 (shock consolidation), 白银期货 (shock - strong and hitting a new high), etc. [2][3] - The A - share market has shown positive trends recently, with major indices rising in August. Multiple factors are expected to support its long - term positive development, and sectors such as technology, consumption, and dividend assets are favored [22][23][27] - The prices of international commodities are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, economic data, and policies. For example, US crude oil production hitting a new high has pressured oil prices [17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast (1) Stock Index Futures - On September 1st, 2025, 股指期货 will shock and consolidate and accumulate strength for an upward attack. Specific contracts have corresponding support and resistance levels. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4550 and 4600 points and support at 4500 and 4475 points [2] - In September 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are expected to be shock - strong [30][31] (2) Bond Futures - On September 1st, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2512 will likely have a wide - range shock, with support at 107.66 and 107.53 yuan and resistance at 107.91 and 108.04 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 will also likely have a wide - range shock, with support at 116.0 and 115.3 yuan and resistance at 116.8 and 117.4 yuan [2][3] (3) Precious Metal Futures - On September 1st, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 will likely be strong - shock and attack resistance levels of 794.9 and 796.3 yuan/gram, with support at 785.4 and 783.6 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2510 will likely be shock - strong, attack resistance levels of 9650 and 9700 yuan/kg, and hit a new high since listing, with support at 9386 and 9347 yuan/kg [2][3] (4) Base Metal Futures - On September 1st, 2025, copper, zinc, and nickel futures will likely be strong - shock; aluminum, alumina, tin, and industrial silicon futures will likely be weak - shock; and lead futures' trend is not specifically mentioned in this part of the prediction [3][4] (5) Energy and Chemical Futures - On September 1st, 2025, crude oil, glass, and soda ash futures will likely be weak - shock; PTA, PVC, and methanol futures will also likely be weak - shock [6][7] (6) Agricultural Product Futures - On September 1st, 2025, soybean meal futures will likely be strong - shock; soybean oil, palm oil, and cotton futures will likely be weak - shock [7] 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The State Council held a meeting to study element market - oriented reform pilot projects, deploy county - level high - school revitalization, and review relevant medical plans [8] - Multiple departments have introduced policies to promote employment, support private enterprises, and develop inclusive childcare services [8][9] - The economic data shows that the business revenue of state - owned enterprises is flat, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs have rebounded [9] - International events include Sino - US economic and trade exchanges, and the development of Sino - Russian economic cooperation [9][11] 3. A - Share Market Analysis - On August 29th, the A - share market had most major indices rising, with 3300 stocks falling, and some sectors such as lithium - battery, rare - earth, and CRO concepts leading the gains [22] - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index rose 24.13% [23] - In the future, the A - share market is expected to maintain a long - term positive trend, supported by factors such as policy support and economic improvement [27] 4. International Stock and Bond Markets - On August 29th, US stocks closed down due to factors such as technology stock corrections, tariff concerns, and inflation data. European stocks also closed down, affected by geopolitical risks and other factors [29][30] - On August 29th, US bond yields showed different trends, with long - term yields rising and short - term yields fluctuating greatly [56]

品 研 2025年9月1日 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | (基本面跟踪) 贵金属基本面数据 线 ex白银 手交易单位是100金衡盎司（折合约为3.11千克） Comex黄金 资料来源:同花顺,国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】(资料来源:华尔街见闻) 1、美商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢访美,与美国政府部门相关官员以及工商界代表举行 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪 金2510 | 785. 12 | 0. 24% | 791. 28 | 0. 90% | | | 黄金T+D | 781. 70 | 0. 24% | 788. 20 | 0. 85% | | | Comex黄金2510 | 3516. 10 | 1. 13% | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-09-01 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 期货研究 2025-09-01 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.4 观点分享： 国家统计局 8 月 31 日公布的数据显示，8 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%， 比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，制造业景气水平有所改善，非制造业 PMI 上升 0.2 个百分点，至 50.3，综合 PMI 50.5，较前值 50.2 回升 0.3 个百分点。制造业产需指数均有回升，医药、 计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均明显高于制造业总体，产需较快释放。 价格总体水平继续改善，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数连续三个月回升。服务业 景气水平明显回升。服务业商务活动指数为 50.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点，升至年内高 点。8 月份，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，价格降幅收窄， 零售、房地产景气度仍低于临界点。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 期指 | ★★★ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors. In the energy and chemical sector, the trading volume of p-xylene at the end of its option cycle significantly boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. Given the pressure in the futures market, using options to capture trading opportunities is relatively safe. [5] - Due to the impact of interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In the agricultural products sector, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors last week. The end-of-cycle trading volume of p-xylene in the energy and chemical sector boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. The futures market still faced pressure, and using options to capture trading opportunities was relatively safe. [5] - Affected by interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In agricultural products, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - Provided the quantitative data of commodity options, including the volatility, 60-day quantile, skewness, and 60-day quantile of various commodities such as corn, soybean meal, and palm oil [13]. 2.2 - 2.55 Individual Option Market Data - Detailed market data for various options were presented, including contract information, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility, and skewness. For example, in the corn option market, the trading volume and open interest of call and put options, as well as their changes compared to the previous week, were provided [14][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and investment suggestions for multiple energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., with different futures showing various trends such as narrowing fluctuations, short - term weakness, and medium - term shocks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to take a long - short position strategy. This week, the price rose first and then fell. The supply is expected to increase marginally in September. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have declined [4][9]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, with limited downside space. After the Hengli Huizhou device stopped unexpectedly, it entered a de - stocking pattern. Attention should be paid to the long - PTA short - PX strategy for the November contract [10]. - **MEG**: It is in a unilateral volatile market. It is not advisable to chase long positions, and the valuation is high above 4550. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the port has entered a stock - building pattern [11]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. The futures price has minor fluctuations, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The inventories of full - steel tire sample enterprises are at a low level, and the export volume is higher than the historical average. The capacity utilization rate in September is expected to increase [13][16]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it will follow the macro - sentiment and move within a range. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises has increased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [18][20]. Asphalt - The asphalt market will have a narrow - range fluctuation. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. The weekly output has decreased, and the inventories of factories and social warehouses have also decreased [22][34]. LLDPE - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The market price has slightly declined. The demand for PE is improving, but the commodity sentiment has declined recently. The inventory pressure is not significant [35][36]. PP - In the short term, it will move sideways, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. The domestic PP market has continued to decline slightly. The short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is still weak, and the supply pressure will increase [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market will move sideways. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The near - month futures price has corrected due to the pressure of warehouse receipts and weak exports, but the domestic demand is stable [43][45]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The futures price has increased slightly, and the trading volume and open interest have also increased. The supply pressure persists, and the demand during the peak season is not strong [48][52]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The domestic float - glass raw - sheet price has remained stable, and the regional trading performance varies. Some manufacturers plan to slightly increase the price [53][54]. Methanol - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The port inventory has increased significantly. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is large, and the downward pressure is significant. In the medium term, the downside space is narrowing [57][60]. Urea - In the short term, it will move sideways. The corporate inventory has increased slightly. The fundamental pressure is large, and the domestic demand trading is weak. The policy has uncertainties, and the medium - and long - term outlook is still weak [62][64]. Styrene - In the medium term, it is bearish. The anti - involution hype has ended, the inventory in East China ports has continued to increase, and the pressure on tank capacity in September is high. The short - term is volatile, and the medium - term fundamental is weak [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined slightly, and the market is stable. The device operation is normal, and the downstream demand is tepid [67][69]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The supply and demand remain loose, and it will have a weak - side fluctuation in the short term. The Saudi Aramco CP price in September has remained unchanged, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [72][77]. - **Propylene**: There is still support for the spot price, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [72]. PVC - The PVC market still has pressure. The spot market is weakly volatile, and the supply is at a high level. The demand for downstream products related to real estate is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [79]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It will have a narrow - range fluctuation and remains weak. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is weak in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is under pressure in a volatile market. The futures price has declined, and the freight rate index has also decreased [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to break through new highs, and silver is expected to reach its previous peak [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to the weakening US dollar [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][13]. - Lead prices are supported by inventory reduction [2][16]. - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][18]. - The center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to move up, while there may still be room for alumina prices to decline. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to outperform electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and investors should be wary of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of gold and silver in various markets showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 785.12, with a daily increase of 0.24%, and the night - session closing price was 791.28, with a night - session increase of 0.90%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9386, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 9566.00, with a night - session increase of 1.93% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple macro - level events, such as the US 7 - month core PCE price index rising to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact being controllable [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,410, with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 79680, with a night - session increase of 0.34%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,906, with a daily increase of 0.68% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Macro - wise, the US 7 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year. Micro - wise, the US government proposed to include copper in the list of critical minerals, and some companies had production - related news [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 1 [12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22140, with a decrease of 0.14%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk closing price was 2814, with an increase of 0.97%. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and other data [13]. - **News**: China's August official manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, and the US 7 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [15]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16880, with a decrease of 0.18%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk closing price was 1997, with an increase of 0.45%. There were also changes in inventory and other data [16]. - **News**: The US 7 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission planned to promote capital market reform [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 278,650, with a daily increase of 2.19%, and the night - session closing price was 272,590, with a decrease of 1.17%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closing price was 34,825, with an increase of 0.91% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple macro - level events, such as the US government's tariff - related rulings and China's regulatory policies [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20740, with a decrease of 10. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory data for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: India's second - quarter GDP grew by 7.8% year - on - year, but faced tariff challenges [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and other data in the industrial chain [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about Canada's potential nickel export restrictions, Indonesia's nickel - related production and policy news, and a Chinese steel mill's production adjustment [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [31].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].