Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - PX has a supply gap due to high polyester operation rates, and its profit hits a new high. The market is bullish, and PXN reaches a new peak [8]. - PTA's valuation continues to rise due to tight PX supply - demand on the cost side and high polyester operation rates. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread [8]. - MEG is in a range - bound market as the increase in supply cannot change the future inventory build - up pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On December 18, 2025, the PX price rises. The PX - naphtha price spread reaches a new high in 2025. Higher margins may incentivize producers to increase output, but most Asian producers are cautious in the short term [3][5]. - PTA: Some PTA producers outside China are struggling to secure 2026 regular contracts. In mainland China, an Ineos 1.25 - million - ton PTA unit reduces operation and may shut down, with the PTA load at 73.2% as of Thursday [6]. - MEG: As of December 18, the overall ethylene glycol operation rate in mainland China rises to 71.97%, and the operation rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increases to 75.46% [6]. - Polyester: A filament unit of Sanfangxiang experiences a minor issue during the feeding process, delaying production. The domestic polyester load in mainland China remains around 91.2% as of Thursday [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1, indicating a neutral view [8]. Price and Margin Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rise, with PTA having the highest daily increase rate of 1.37%. MEG futures rise slightly by 0.24% [2]. - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha spot prices rise, while MEG spot price falls. The PX - naphtha spread is 282.92 dollars/ton [2]. - **Processing Margin**: The PX - naphtha spread increases by 1.5 dollars/ton, while PTA and short - fiber processing margins decrease [2].

2025年12月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库不及预期，关注高位回落风险 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高做空为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注消息面的影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 19 日 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 113,940 | 140 | -1,930 | -3,820 | -900 | -7,850 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil may have a short - term rebound and is in the process of bottom - hunting through oscillations [2][4] - Soybean oil is struggling to stabilize due to the weak performance of US soybeans [2][4] - Soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation [2][11] - Soybean No.1 is oscillating [2][11] - For corn, attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13] - Sugar is running weakly [2][17] - Cotton is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and downstream demand should be monitored [2][22] - Eggs will maintain an oscillating state [2][28] - The peak demand for pigs during the Winter Solstice has arrived [2][30] - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2][36] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 8,368 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase and a night - time closing price of 8,406 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 7,802 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease and a night - time closing price of 7,776 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of October decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons, domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons, and production was 4.35 million tons, higher than September. The export volume in October was 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year [6] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a daytime closing price of 4041 yuan/ton with a 1.25% decrease and a night - time closing price of 4042 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605 had a daytime closing price of 2747 yuan/ton with a 0.69% decrease and a night - time closing price of 2742 yuan/ton with a 0.11% decrease [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to long - position liquidation, global sufficient supply, and unclear Chinese demand prospects. Exporters sold 114,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2216 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease during the day and 2219 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2190 yuan/ton with a 0.73% decrease during the day and remained unchanged at night [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of northern corn for bulk shipping and containerized first - class grain at ports remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of corn in Northeast China were slightly lower in some areas, while those in North China were oscillating strongly [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.48 cents/pound with a 0.28 - cent decrease. The mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan decrease, and the futures main contract price was 5102 yuan/ton with a 37 - yuan decrease [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,960 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase during the day and 13965 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease during the day and 20015 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease at night [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton has weakened, and the prices of pure - cotton yarn have fluctuated. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, but the overall trend is still weak [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3067 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.87% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2602 was 2916 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.48% decrease [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Not provided Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,150 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,360 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 also had corresponding changes [32] - **Macro and Industry News**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, Yangxiang, and COFCO registered warehouse receipts from December 4 to 15. The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by - products from the EU [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9400 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7300 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK601 was 8066 yuan/ton with no change, and the closing price of PK603 was 7996 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [36] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Henan, the prices of peanuts were generally stable or slightly lower; in Jilin, the prices were basically stable; in Liaoning, the trading was in a stalemate; in Shandong, the prices were basically stable [37]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of precious metals, including price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**:沪金2602 closed at 980.50 with a 0.08% daily increase, and 980.20 in the night session with a 0.02% increase; Comex黄金2602 closed at 4363.90 with a -0.17% decrease.沪银2602 closed at 15521 with a 0.06% increase, and 15228.00 in the night session with a -1.42% decrease; Comex白银2602 closed at 65.450 with a -1.49% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**:沪金2602 had a trading volume of 241,116, a decrease of 34,773 from the previous day, and a position of 196,752, a decrease of 353. Comex黄金2602 had a trading volume of 228,606, an increase of 22,920, and a position of 346,701, an increase of 6,132.沪银2602 had a trading volume of 1,571,738, a decrease of 55,330, and a position of 363,402, a decrease of 25,592. Comex白银2602 had a trading volume of 110,401, a decrease of 34,610, and a position of 114,701, unchanged [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR黄金ETF held 1,052.54, unchanged from the previous day; SLV白银ETF held 16,018.29 (the day before yesterday), unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**:沪金 inventory was 91,716 kg, a decrease of 6; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 35,991,345 troy ounces, unchanged.沪银 inventory was 912,164 kg, an increase of 240; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 452,950,783 troy ounces, a decrease of 895,355 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between 黄金T+D and AU2602 was -5.82, unchanged; the spread between 沪金2602 and 2606 contracts was N/A. The cost of the spread arbitrage between buying 沪金 in December and selling in June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87. The spread between 白银T+D and AG2602 was 57, an increase of 40; the spread between 沪银2602 and 2606 contracts was -13,933, a decrease of 414 [1]. Macro and Industry News - US inflation slowed more than expected, with the core CPI in November rising 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021. Some economists suspect data distortion due to a government shutdown [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 224,000, reversing the previous upward trend [4]. - The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, reiterating that inflation will return to the 2% target in the medium term and not providing clear easing guidance. ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle may have ended [6]. - The Bank of England made a "hawkish" 25 - basis - point rate cut, passing by a 5 - 4 vote, and said it would be more difficult to judge further easing [6]. - Trump said the next Fed chair must be "super - dovish" and would soon announce the candidate, praising Waller and Bowman [6]. - In October, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasuries by over $10 billion, while China's holdings decreased and Canada's decreased significantly [6]. - Wu Qing attended the founding meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and held a symposium on experts for the "15th Five - Year Plan" of the capital market [6]. - Germany unprecedentedly increased its bond - issuance scale for next year to 512 billion euros for infrastructure and defense [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The core contradiction in the glass industry remains weak demand, and significant improvement is unlikely in 2026. If the supply side can significantly contract, the market may reverse. Policy - driven supply contraction is possible, especially in Hubei in the second half of 2026. The key variable in 2026 is still the policy end, and the pattern of rising by expectation and falling by delivery will continue [1][104]. - Soda Ash: High production and high inventory are the core pressures on the soda ash industry. In 2026, there may be nearly 10% incremental production capacity. The industry needs to further reduce production to resolve the dilemma. Key variables in 2026 include export market trends, supply reduction due to low prices, and the resolution of warehouse receipt pressure [2][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Glass and Soda Ash Trend Review - Glass: In 2025, glass was weak. The price of the main contract dropped from 1470 yuan/ton to 950 yuan/ton, a decline of 35.4%. Factory inventory increased, and order volume declined. The market was affected by concerns about the capital situation of real - estate and glass processing enterprises. After a brief rebound in July, the price continued to fall from October [5]. - Soda Ash: In 2025, the soda ash market faced pressure from expanding production capacity and weak downstream demand. The price decreased significantly, with the average price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe dropping by about 33.3% compared to 2024. The industry's capacity utilization rate declined, and inventory remained high. Although exports increased by 101.6% year - on - year as of November, the overall situation was still challenging [6][7]. 3.2 Real Estate Market Creeping Forward with Policy Support but No Boost - In 2026, the real - estate market is still difficult to improve substantially. The potential large - scale interest rate cuts and quantitative easing in the US may help domestic real - estate debt resolution in the second half of 2026. Domestic policies aim to stabilize the market, and although the decline rate of real - estate indicators has slowed, full recovery still takes time [8][9]. 3.3 Demand under Pressure, Supply Changes More Important in 2026 3.3.1 Demand Still under Pressure - Glass Processing: The production of glass deep - processing products decreased. As of October 2025, the cumulative production of tempered glass decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, hollow glass by 9.2%, and LOW - E glass had a low operating rate. The industry is in a negative feedback loop [23][24]. - Regional and Non - standard Arbitrage: Regional spreads narrowed, making regional arbitrage more difficult. Non - standard products, especially small - sized glass, were weak, which affected the non - standard arbitrage in Hebei. Large manufacturers no longer supported prices, and regional competition became more differentiated [34]. 3.3.2 Production Changes as the Future Key Variable - Policy: Since the second half of 2025, central policies have focused on "anti - deflation and anti - involution". The Hubei Ecological Environment Department requires energy transformation of glass kilns by the end of 2026, which may significantly impact the market [41][42]. - Supply - side Market Changes: In 2025, the glass industry's supply was slightly high, and production reduction was not active. In 2026, potential new line ignition and old line restart scale are high, but actual production depends on market demand. If demand remains poor, production reduction may resume in the second half of 2026 [50][52]. - Inventory Differentiation: As of November 2025, national glass factory inventory increased by 33.6% year - on - year, with significant regional differences. Inventory differentiation is due to factors such as proximity to demand, direct sales, and deep - processing capacity expansion. This may lead to further fragmentation of the glass industry [60]. 3.4 Photovoltaic Glass - In 2025, the photovoltaic glass market was volatile. Supply increased in the first half of the year but decreased later due to over - capacity. Demand was affected by trade risks and grid consumption factors. Prices fluctuated throughout the year. In 2026, the market may face pressure in the first half, but the second half is not overly pessimistic [68][69][82]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply Surplus Pressure Remains High, Price Fluctuation Range May Shrink - Stock Supply Game: In 2025, soda ash supply changes mainly came from stock supply games. In 2026, glass industry production reduction may drive soda ash production reduction. Seasonal maintenance and matching with glass supply are important factors in soda ash supply [87]. - Inventory Structure and Relative Spread Support: In 2025, the soda ash market was supported by almost equal light - heavy spreads and good export performance. Inventory was concentrated, and high - inventory manufacturers took measures to hedge risks. Future export growth and heavy - to - light soda conversion may support the market [92]. - Long - term Trend: The potential new production capacity of soda ash from the end of 2025 to 2026 is 480 - 630 tons, with a potential increase of over 10%. The long - term problem of high production and high inventory needs to be resolved through industry supply clearance [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, the central price of urea may rise. After the peak agricultural demand season, the central price is expected to gradually decline in the second half of the year, with a volatile pattern throughout the year. The market may mainly trade on the expectations and discrepancies of urea's peak agricultural demand, export, and storage drives. Traders are advised to focus on band opportunities. The export - related policy adjustment in 2026 remains a key factor in adjusting the domestic fundamentals. The expected operating range of urea prices in 2026 is 1,550 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Strategies suggest focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread at low prices, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads at high prices [1][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H2 Urea Trend Review - **Q3**: With sufficient production profit, the overall operating rate and output of the urea industry remained high. Agricultural demand weakened, but new export quotas and the "anti - involution" macro - logic supported the price, resulting in wide - range price fluctuations [5]. - **Q4**: The strong expectations for September were falsified. Supply remained high, and export and domestic demand could not match the supply pressure, leading to a downward price trend. There was a phased rebound in November due to mid - stream reserve replenishment and increased export quotas [9]. 3.2 Demand Side: Urea Demand in 2026 is Expected to Increase - **Agricultural End**: The growth of urea agricultural demand in 2026 may continue, but the growth rate is expected to decline slightly. The demand increment is mainly concentrated from February to May, and corn is the main source of actual demand growth [13][15][17]. - **Industrial End**: A cautious and pessimistic attitude is taken towards the domestic industrial demand for urea in 2026. The demand from melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and thermal power denitrification is expected to have no significant increase [13]. - **Export End**: Urea exports in 2026 may continue to grow, mainly concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [14][48]. 3.3 Supply Side: Urea Supply in 2026 is Expected to Increase - **Output**: The urea industry is expected to add 6.51 million tons of new production capacity in 2026, with an annual capacity growth rate of 7.9%. The theoretical capacity will increase from 82.07 million tons to 88.58 million tons, and the output is expected to increase [51][53]. - **Inventory**: In 2026, the upstream enterprise inventory and mid - stream social inventory of urea are expected to show a pattern of destocking in the first half of the year and stockpiling in the second half, with a slightly higher annual average inventory center [51]. - **Profit**: The production profit of urea in 2026 may fluctuate widely. The profit may rebound in the first half depending on the intensity of agricultural demand, and the profit center may decline in the second half, mainly depending on export policies [51].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 估值具备韧性，关注波段节奏 ---2026 年甲醇期货行情展望 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | huangtianyuan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 报告导读： 展望 2026 年，甲醇市场预计将以高产量、高库存、低利润为起点，整体价格中枢在成本支撑与供需博弈中震荡，上 半年基本面可能阶段性强于下半年。 成本支撑与利润挤压并存。预计 2026 年国内煤炭供需格局仍有韧性，价格中枢稳定，这将为甲醇提供成本支撑。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 供应增速放缓，进口仍是关键。国内产能虽维持增长，但增速下降，且存量产能利用率已处高位，预计 2026 年国内 产量增速将显著下滑。供应端的核心变量依然是进口。上半年，受伊朗季节性限气影响，进口量环比预计下降，对港口库 存形成一定减压。但同比看，因 2025 年底伊朗装置停车晚于往年，且非伊货源（如马来西亚、委内瑞拉）供应充足，上 半年进口总量可能仍高于 2025 年同期。下半年， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report In the context of limited new supply pressure, shortage of high - quality raw materials, and continuous demand growth, it is expected that the annual price center of corrugated paper will move up, with a "V" - shaped trend. The price will face pressure and decline moderately in the first half of the year, and then start a moderate rebound in the middle of the year [3]. Summary by Directory 1.走出低价泥潭 - **行情回顾**：2025 年国内包装纸价格走势分两阶段，年初至 7 月中旬，供应宽松、需求疲软致价格下滑，AA 级 120g 高瓦均价一度探 2500 元/吨，箱板纸均价一度探 3500 元/吨；7 月中旬至 11 月底，绝对价格低、原料价涨、“反内卷”政策出台，龙头纸厂提价带动价格回升，AA 级 120g 高瓦均价回升至 3200 元/吨以上，箱板纸价格回升至 3900 元/吨以上 [7]。 - **利润特征**：利润低位徘徊，行业供应过剩局面未根本缓解。7 月下旬以来废黄板纸价格上涨，箱板纸税后毛利未显著修复，瓦楞纸单吨税后毛利有一定上涨，但二者均基本持平或低于历史同期水平。截至 2025 年 11 月下旬，箱板纸单吨税后毛利约 350 元/吨，瓦楞纸单吨税后毛利约 175 元/吨 [10]。 2. 产能投放速度放缓 - **国内供应**：截至 2024 年末，不同机构数据显示国内瓦楞纸产能约 3400 - 3600 万吨，箱板纸产能约 4400 - 4800 万吨。2025 年国内新增瓦楞纸产能约 272 万吨，集中在华东地区；新增箱板纸产能约 172 万吨，集中在华中、华南和西南地区。展望 2026 年，新增产能投放速度放缓，或有部分中小产能出清，投产确定性较强的瓦楞纸项目约 157 万吨，箱板纸项目约 213 万吨，包装纸产能过剩格局未改，但新增投产利空力度有限 [14][23][28]。 - **进口变化**：国内废纸系包装纸对进口依赖度提高，2024 年箱板纸进口 560 万吨，进口依赖度 16%左右；瓦楞纸进口 268 万吨，进口依赖度 10%左右。2025 年 1 - 10 月，低价抑制包装纸进口，瓦楞纸进口量同比 - 20%，箱板纸进口量同比 - 21%，三季度后进口有所回暖。展望 2026 年，进口量受长协和市场价格驱动的跨境套利行为影响，预计整体进口量维持平稳 [30][31][33]。 3. 需求延续温和增长 - **2025 年需求延续强势**：2014 - 2024 年，瓦楞纸年度消费量 CAGR 约 2.6%，箱板纸消费量 CAGR 约 3.3%。2025 年 1 - 10 月，瓦楞纸和箱板纸表观消费量表现延续强势，瓦楞纸强于箱板纸，快递行业占瓦楞及箱板纸消费比重由 2021 年的 4%提升到 2025 年的 6.5% [36][39]。 - **终端消费**：2025 年 1 - 10 月，真实消费量表现强势，下游需求传导通畅。年内有两个旺季，一是春节后金三银四复工和 618 电商旺季，二是 9 - 12 月节假日备货和双十一电商需求拉动，春节后是淡季。展望 2026 年，饮料产量有望同步实现个位数增长，家电产量面临压力，快递业务量或维持低两位数增长，对瓦楞纸和箱板纸终端消费增速偏乐观 [43][49][59]。 - **出口订单**：国内箱板纸和瓦楞纸以满足内需为主，出口量少。2016 年是出口高峰，此后下滑。2025 年 1 - 10 月，出口量占比低，瓦楞纸出口量同比 - 39%，箱板纸出口量同比 + 44%。展望 2026 年，出口占比或无明显变化，出口量难有明显增长 [62][64]。 - **库存结构**：2025 年产业链库存由上游向下游转移，当前下游库存达同期高位，预计 2026H1 库存周期转向下游去库、上游累库，节点取决于终端需求变化 [67]。 4. 原料价格的判断 - **原料进口**：2017 年起国家收紧外废进口政策，纤维补充方式转变。2025 年 1 - 10 月，国内废纸浆进口缩量，同比 - 13%，主要因政策影响，国家限制“干磨浆”进口。基准情形下，2026 年国内废纸浆进口数量大幅减少可能性偏低 [80][84][89]。 - **国废价格**：长期看，国废价格受国产纸产量影响，我国成品纸产量逐年提升，2026 年产量增速或放缓但快速下滑概率不大。瓦楞纸、箱板纸等废纸系成品纸占比提升，优质纤维紧缺。废纸回收和利用方面，2024 年利用国内回收废纸总量增长，回收率提升，利用率下降。原料价格有季节性特征，二季度是底部，夏季高温多雨影响回收，价格跟随季节性波动，下方空间有限 [90][92][101]。 - **利润开工**：2026 年低利润特征或强化，行业开工主要取决于订单和进口再生纤维浆清关速度，除非原料供应大范围受限，包装纸供应相对充足 [105]。 5. 市场展望 - 2026 年行业供需呈现原料相对紧缺、产能相对过剩但新增有限、需求温和增长的情况，供需矛盾缓和，年度价格中枢温和上升，走势或呈“V”字型 [114]。

Report Title - "Industrial Reorganization and Upgrading: The Inflection Point of Naphtha Supply and Demand is Approaching - Outlook for the Naphtha Market in 2026" [1] Report Core View - In 2026, against the backdrop of increased uncertainty on the supply side and negative feedback shocks on the demand side, the Asian naphtha market will gradually shift from a significant shortage to a tight - balance pattern. The structural contradictions will evolve into a stock game. In the second half of the year, with the acceleration of the lightening process of Asian ethylene cracking and the impact of the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry, Asian naphtha is expected to turn into a structural surplus [2] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Annual Review of Naphtha - Ethylene Trends 1.1 2025 Annual Review of Naphtha Market - The 2025 naphtha market was mainly characterized by a structural shortage, with geopolitical factors and downstream losses as secondary factors. The naphtha cracking spread remained high throughout the year, but there were still opportunities to lock in profits for downstream cracking units under negative feedback. The market was divided into four stages: the first - quarter structural and seasonal strength stage, the Sino - US trade conflict stage, the East - West naphtha stock market game stage, and the stage of deepening sanctions on Russia and deepening cracking losses in Asia [5] 1.2 2025 Annual Review of Ethylene Market - In 2025, the Asian ethylene market was generally lackluster, with an expectation of oversupply. China's large - scale ethylene capacity release had a huge impact on the prices of ethylene and its derivatives in Asia. Although most ethylene was consumed by downstream supporting devices, regional and internal contradictions were emerging [11][13] 2. 2026 Outlook for Naphtha and Ethylene Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Naphtha Supply Changes 2.1.1 Global Refining Capacity Changes - In 2025, global refining capacity investment fell short of expectations, with a net decrease in capacity. In 2026, the global refining capacity may show a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.2% by the end of the year. Naphtha supply is expected to follow a similar trend, with a growth rate lower than 1.2% [17][19][23] 2.1.2 Domestic Naphtha Yield Calculation - Since this year, China's "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" strategy has led to a decrease in the gasoline and diesel yield of major refineries from an average of 53% in 2024 to about 47% in 2025, which has been mostly converted into naphtha yield. China's naphtha yield has increased from less than 24% to over 25% [25][27] 2.1.3 Global Export Supply and Arbitrage of Naphtha - In 2026, the East - West naphtha price spread is at a historically high level, and a large amount of Western logistics has flowed into Asia. Western naphtha is more driven by gasoline blending demand. In the first half of 2026, the East - West arbitrage logistics will remain at a high level [28][30] 2.1.4 Changes in Export Centers of Various Countries and Reasons - In 2025, the increase in OPEC's crude oil production led to an increase in the refinery operation rate in the Middle East, and the monthly average export of naphtha increased by nearly 300,000 tons. In 2026, the Middle East's export center is expected to remain at 4.2 - 4.3 million tons per month [32][34][37] 2.2 Global Naphtha Demand Changes 2.2.1 Global Gasoline Market Changes - In 2025, the global gasoline market first declined and then rose. In 2026, the global refining capacity is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, and the gasoline market in the first half of the year is still worth looking forward to, while the supply pressure may return in the second half [38][41][43] 2.2.2 Global Ethylene Cracking Unit Commissioning and Elimination - 2025 was a year of large - scale commissioning of global ethylene cracking units, mainly in China. In 2026, the global ethylene capacity growth rate will gradually slow down, and the demand for external naphtha from Asian ethylene cracking will have limited growth [45][47][52] 2.2.3 Asian Ethylene Cracking Unit Maintenance Process - In 2025, Asian ethylene cracking units had few maintenance operations. In 2026, due to the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry, South Korean ethylene cracking units may undergo maintenance in the first half of the year, and some capacities may be shut down permanently [53] 2.2.4 Changes in Ethylene Cracking Unit Processes - Global ethylene cracking units are undergoing profound changes, and the raw material lightening process continues to advance, which will increase the demand for light raw materials but damage the demand for Asian naphtha. In 2026, the demand for naphtha in the stock market is expected to gradually shrink [54][55][57] 2.2.5 Reorganization of the Northeast Asian Ethylene Cracking Industry - South Korea's ethylene cracking industry is struggling. The South Korean government plans to eliminate 2.7 - 3.8 million tons of ethylene production capacity in 2026. The elimination of production capacity will not only reduce ethylene exports but also affect domestic downstream derivatives [59][61][62] 2.3 Summary of Contradictions in Ethylene Downstream Derivatives 2.3.1 Polyethylene Summary - In 2025, China's plastic production capacity increased significantly. In 2026, the plastic production capacity will continue to increase, and the existing profits may be difficult to maintain. The operating rate of plastic is an important factor in the ethylene supply - demand balance [64][66] 2.3.2 Ethylene Glycol Summary - The ethylene glycol market will weaken in 2026 due to new capacity release and changes in the operating rate of existing units. The price is seeking cost - support margins [67][69] 2.3.3 Styrene Summary - In 2025, the global styrene price fell sharply. In 2026, the styrene industry chain investment is mainly concentrated in the upstream pure benzene segment. The supply - demand contradiction of styrene is more concentrated in maintenance [72][74] 2.3.4 PVC and Other Summary - PVC is the weakest link in the ethylene derivatives industry chain. In 2026, the operating rate of PVC ethylene method may decline [76] 3. Naphtha - Ethylene Balance Sheet 3.1 Domestic and Asian Ethylene Balance Sheet - In 2026, the commissioning of ethylene downstream derivatives in the first half of the year is limited. The supply side of ethylene will be narrowed, and the demand side will have different changes in different products. If there is no additional production reduction from upstream factories, the domestic ethylene stock may tend to be oversupplied [79][81][82] 3.2 Asian Naphtha Balance Sheet - In the first half of 2026, the Asian naphtha supply - demand pattern is seasonally blurred, showing a tight - balance pattern with a small - scale de - stocking trend. The demand side will be the main contradiction, and the balance sheet may change due to downstream negative feedback [85][86][87]