Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][4][6][7][10][13][15]. Summary of Each Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2601 contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.38%. Imported ore prices generally decreased, with Kafan (65%) down 2 yuan/ton to 891 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.83%. For hot - rolled coils, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,355 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The trend strength for both is 0 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was 5,566 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The closing price of the silicomanganese 2511 contract was 5,776 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1,151 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1,643 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Repeated fluctuations [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 log contract was 777, down 1.6% from the previous day and 3.3% from the previous week. The trend strength is 0 [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals have no new drivers, and it is waiting for a pullback [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is undergoing a correction [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][9]. - **Soybean No. 1**: It rebounds after an oversold situation [2][9]. - **Corn**: It is moving in a volatile manner [2][12]. - **Sugar**: It is consolidating within a range [2][16]. - **Cotton**: The futures price volatility has increased due to news [2][21]. - **Eggs**: There is strong near - term trading [2][28]. - **Hogs**: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreased, and the price rebounded [2][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,320 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and the night - session was 9,290 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,398 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change, and the night - session was 8,312 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1,421,486 tons. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil in September to $124 per ton from $74 in August [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals Tracking**: DCE soybean No. 1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,945 yuan/ton with a + 0.46% change, and the night - session was 3,959 yuan/ton with a + 0.66% change. DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,055 yuan/ton with a + 0.53% change, and the night - session was 3,060 yuan/ton with a + 0.43% change [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 29, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to technical buying. China's potential non - procurement of US soybeans still weighs on the market. US North Dakota's soybean yield may be limited by cold weather in spring [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 have a trend intensity of + 1 [11]. Corn - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,238 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% daily change and 2,248 yuan/ton with a 0.45% night - session change. The closing price of C2511 was 2,191 yuan/ton with a 0.60% daily change and 2,192 yuan/ton with a 0.05% night - session change [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port - collection prices range from 2,200 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices range from 2,350 - 2,370 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound with a - 0.13 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton with a - 10 change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated. India's monsoon precipitation is 6.1% higher than the long - period average. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals Tracking**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,240 yuan/ton with a 1.21% change, and the night - session was 14,015 yuan/ton with a - 1.58% change. CY2511's daily - session closing price was 20,140 yuan/ton with a 0.25% change, and the night - session was 19,960 yuan/ton with a - 0.89% change [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the basis is stable. ICE cotton futures were weak due to concerns about export prospects [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2510 was 2,939 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.41% change, and egg 2601 was 3,322 yuan/500 kg with a 0.24% change [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Hogs - **Fundamentals Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,250 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,740 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2511 was 13,555 yuan/ton, hog 2601 was 13,870 yuan/ton, and hog 2603 was 13,135 yuan/ton [30]. - **Market Logic**: At the weekend, large - scale hog producers reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of 1 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 7,978 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and PK511 was 7,784 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply volume was affected by rain, and new peanuts are expected to be listed around September 20 [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [36].

报告核心观点 - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impact on the futures market [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of factors such as macro - policies, trade wars, geopolitical situations, and official speeches on the futures market [2] 本周重点关注 - On September 1st at 9:45, Markit will release China's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.5, same as the previous value [2][3] - On September 3rd, a grand military parade will be held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [2][9] - On September 4th at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions [2][12] - On September 5th at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non - farm payroll report [2][20] 本周热点前瞻 September 1st - China's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures prices [3] - Eurozone's July unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.2%, same as the previous value [4] September 2nd - Eurozone's August CPI preliminary value: Expected eurozone August harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is 2.0%, same as the previous value [5] - US August ISM Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] September 3rd - Military parade in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War, lasting about 70 minutes [9] - US July factory orders: If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] September 4th - China's August SPGI Services PMI and Composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 52.5, previous value was 52.6 [10] - Federal Reserve Beige Book of Economic Conditions: Attention should be paid to its content and impact on related futures prices [12] - August下旬 circulation area important production material market prices: Include 9 categories and 50 products [13] - Eurozone's July retail sales: Expected monthly rate is 0.2%, previous value was 0.3% [14] - US August ADP employment change: If lower than the previous value, it will suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [15] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30th: If slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices and slightly boost other industrial product futures prices [16] - US August ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] September 5th - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 29th: If the inventory continues to decline, it will boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [18] - US August non - farm payroll report: If the seasonally adjusted new non - farm employment is slightly higher than the previous value but the unemployment rate is slightly higher, it will strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, slightly boost non - gold and non - silver commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [20] September 7th - China's August foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves: July foreign exchange reserves were $3292.235 billion, and gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term watch for crude oil, focus on the reversal of various spreads [1] Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price, dynamics, cross - regional comparison, key spreads,突发事件 or potential impact factors, and other news of the crude oil and refined oil markets, providing a comprehensive view of the current situation of the oil market [1][2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Market Price and Dynamics - WTI10 crude oil futures fell $0.59/barrel, or 0.91%, to $64.01/barrel; Brent October crude oil futures fell $0.50/barrel, or 0.73%, to $68.12/barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures rose $1.00/barrel, or 0.21%, to $483.90/barrel [1] - In different regions, prices and market dynamics vary. For example, in Europe, the spot trading volume in the Mediterranean decreased by 12% month - on - month due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict; in Asia, the demand for strategic reserve replenishment in China is strong; in America, the congestion of export facilities in the US Gulf has been alleviated [2] 2. Refined Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Different refined oil products in various regions have different price changes and market dynamics. For example, in the gasoline market, the ARA inventory in Europe increased as the summer driving season was coming to an end, while in Asia, Indonesia's Pertamina added a third - quarter import plan [4] 3. Cross - Regional Comparison - In terms of supply, the supply in Russia is restricted in Europe, Chinese refineries are under centralized maintenance in Asia, and the US production has reached a new high in America [5] - Regarding demand, the demand for diesel power generation is increasing in Europe, the summer consumption of gasoline is strong in Asia, and the export demand dominates in America [5] - In terms of inventory, the ARA diesel inventory in Europe is 208.5 tons, the Singapore light distillate inventory decreased by 11.01% week - on - week in Asia, and the crude oil inventory in the Gulf of Mexico is at a five - year low in America [5] 4. Key Spreads - Brent - Dubai spread is $3.25/barrel, up $0.30/barrel, indicating a worsening shortage of light - sweet crude oil [7] - WTI - Brent spread is - $2.82/barrel, down $0.25/barrel, showing an increase in the quality difference of US crude oil [7] 5.突发事件 or Potential Impact Factors - The attack in Ukraine led to the full shutdown of the Tuapse refinery and a halving of the export volume of Black Sea CPC blended oil [8] - The restart of Mexican refineries caused the production of Dos Bocas refinery to be delayed by 6 months, and the US gasoline export volume to Mexico increased by 45% year - on - year [8] 6. Other Market News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, with a previous value of 49.3 and an expected value of 49.5 [8] - The US oil drilling rig count increased to 412 in the week to August 29 [11] - The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products also rose to the highest level since October 2024 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, stating that the basis remains stable and the range - bound oscillation continues. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price is 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume is 10,537 lots, down 2,243 lots; and its open interest is 17,135 lots, down 5,709 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price is 77,180 yuan, down 960 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume is 490,058 lots, down 315,527 lots; and its open interest is 346,605 lots, down 458 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 29,887 lots, up 930 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is 2,650 yuan, up 790 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 is 2,470 yuan, up 610 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 is - 180 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 894 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,975 yuan, up 60 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,650 yuan, down 350 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,350 yuan, down 350 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,115 yuan, down 90 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 114,100 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,350 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton [2]. - Chile's economic minister expects Codelco and SQM to reach a major lithium cooperation deal before the end of the current government's term in 2026. Some presidential candidates claim to re - examine or abolish the agreement if it doesn't land before President Boric leaves office, and the government is accelerating this core project of the national lithium strategy [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG supply and demand remain loose, with short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. - Propylene spot prices still have support, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,411 yesterday with a 0.05% increase, and 4,334 at night with a - 1.75% change; PG2511 closed at 4,324 yesterday with a - 0.18% change, and 4,260 at night with a - 1.48% change; PL2601 closed at 6,409 yesterday with a - 0.64% change, and 6,397 at night with a - 0.19% change; PL2602 closed at 6,441 yesterday with a - 0.68% change, and 6,432 at night with a - 0.14% change [1]. - **LPG Position and Trading Volume**: PG2510 had a trading volume of 97,396 yesterday, an increase of 28,672 from the previous day, and a position of 85,415, a decrease of 2,174; PG2511 had a trading volume of 20,455, an increase of 6,399, and a position of 33,149, an increase of 456; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,066, unchanged, and a position of 5,095, an increase of 198; PL2602 had a trading volume of 5, an increase of 1, and a position of 849, a decrease of 4 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 189 yesterday, compared to 191 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 189, compared to 191; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 166, compared to 125; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 141, compared to 100; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 66, compared to 25 [1]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, compared to 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged; the alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, compared to 47.3% last week [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5]. Market Information - **Saudi Aramco CP**: In September 2025, Saudi Aramco's CP for propane was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; for butane, it was 490 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The equivalent landed US - dollar cost for propane was 582 US dollars/ton, and for butane was 552 US dollars/ton; the equivalent RMB landed cost for propane was about 4,599 yuan/ton, and for butane was about 4,362 yuan/ton (excluding terminal handling fees) [6]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Many enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical Co., Ltd. from July 16 to August 26, 2025, etc. [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple LPG factories have maintenance plans. For example, Shengli Refinery in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, with a normal output of 400 and a loss of 400; Dongming Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from July 29 to the end of September 2025, with a normal output of 100 and a loss of 100 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, with a neutral fundamental outlook, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, facing both upward pressure and downward support. The upward pressure comes from the high - supply situation of cis - butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as the relatively high short - term arrival volume of butadiene. The downward support is due to the medium - to long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber主力 (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 87,677 lots, a decrease of 44,620 lots; the open interest was 35,493 lots, a decrease of 5,585 lots; and the trading volume was 519.883 million yuan, a decrease of 266.886 million yuan. The basis (Shandong cis - butadiene - futures主力) was 50 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) was 15 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of private cis - butadiene in North China, East China, and South China decreased by 50 yuan, 50 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,950 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,400 yuan and 9,525 yuan respectively, with the Shandong price decreasing by 65 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.0112%, remaining unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,285 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; and the cis - butadiene profit was - 185 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [1]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory Information**: As of August 27, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, with the market influenced by factors such as the high - supply pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene arrival volume, and policy support [4].

Report Investment Rating - PX: Long PX short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [7] - PTA: Long PTA short MEG, long PTA 11 - contract short PX [8] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG, 09 - 01 calendar spread long, avoid chasing long positions above 4550 [9] Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with prices having a short - term pullback. The PTA price is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while the MEG price is in a sideways market [7][8][9] Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力合约昨日收盘价6878，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.12%；月差PX9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 108，较前日跌156 [1] - PTA主力合约昨日收盘价4784，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.17%；月差PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 62，较前日跌6 [1] - MEG主力合约昨日收盘价4466，涨跌1，涨跌幅0.02%；月差MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 37，较前日涨4 [1] Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格848.67美元/吨，较前日持平 [1] - PTA华东昨日价格4740元/吨，较前日跌35 [1] - MEG现货昨日价格4534元/吨，较前日涨9 [1] Processing Margin - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格254.79，较前日跌9 [1] - PTA加工费昨日价格221.67，较前日跌29.59 [1] Market Dynamics Summary - PX现货价格因缺乏多空驱动因素保持不变，看跌的原油情绪限制亚洲PX价格涨幅，且美国关税政策引发消费者价格通胀担忧 [1][2] - 9月初聚酯装置有开停变化，江浙涤丝29号产销整体偏弱，直纺涤短销售一般 [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX趋势强度为1，PTA趋势强度为1，MEG趋势强度为0 [6] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - 亚洲其他地区对二甲苯开工率75.6%（ - 0.7%），国产PX装置开工率83.3%（ - 1.3%），9月福佳大化70计划检修，福化集团160计划重启，供应边际回升 [7] PTA - PTA负荷70.4%（ - 1.2%），恒力惠州装置意外停车后转为去库格局，但工厂套保盘压制盘面，基差回落，聚酯开工90.3%（ + 0.3%） [8] MEG - MEG装置开工率75.1%（ + 2%），港口转为累库格局，供应端负荷整体处于高位，进口到港预计回升，需求端聚酯装置负荷维持在90.3%（ + 0.3%），9月聚酯开工预期下调 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]. 2. Core View - Weekend group significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large farms increased, and small farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. From September to October, the production cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and it's advisable to enter the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price drop accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward movement of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be set. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan spot is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan spot is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot is 14,740 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 13,135 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 22,855 lots, down 7,687 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,636 lots, down 1,327 lots from the previous day; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 12,385 lots, down 1,050 lots, and an open interest of 48,313 lots, up 180 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,149 lots, down 941 lots, and an open interest of 31,772 lots, up 257 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 225 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 645 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 315 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 1 - 3 spread is 735 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].