Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, but the upside space is limited. Investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [2][3][97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Pulp Trend Review - **Periodic Price and Volatility Trends**: From the beginning of the year to February 5, the SP price oscillated upwards with a 4.64% increase due to factors like rising foreign offers and increased import costs. From February 5 to May 6, it dropped by 19.34% because of oversupply and tariff conflicts. From May 6 to October 10, it was in a sideways oscillation with a slight decline of 0.82%. From October 10 to December 5, it oscillated strongly with a 9.61% increase [6][7][8]. - **Volatility Performance**: The annual volatility of pulp futures in 2025 was lower than the previous year. There were three obvious increases in volatility, which were affected by factors such as US tariff policies, "anti - involution" policies, and concerns about insufficient delivery products [10][11]. 3.2 2026 Pulp Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: - **Overseas Supply**: In 2026, overseas pulp production capacity is expected to increase. The supply of coniferous pulp is expected to remain stable, while the key variable for broad - leaf pulp lies in the OKI project. The appreciation of the euro in 2025 had a negative impact on the demand for pulp in Europe. The proportion of pulp shipped to China may decrease in 2026, but the overall overseas supply pressure will not ease [14][19][20]. - **Domestic Supply**: In 2026, domestic pulp production capacity is expected to increase by about 345 tons, with the supply pressure concentrated in the fourth quarter. The price of domestic wood chips is stabilizing, and the import of recycled pulp is tightening, which is conducive to raising the price of domestic pulp and providing a bottom reference for the market [29][31][32]. - **Demand Side**: - **Demand Structure Changes**: The growth in demand for white cardboard and tissue paper is expected to offset the decline in demand for cultural paper, driving a slight increase in the demand for pulp. However, over - capacity and oversupply make it difficult to raise downstream paper prices, limiting the upward space for pulp prices [48][49][67]. - **Cost Structure Adjustment**: Due to the long - term high price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, paper mills have been optimizing their pulp formulas. As the price difference narrows, some paper mills may increase the use of coniferous pulp [91]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Pulp Price Judgment in 2026**: The bottom of the pulp price is basically confirmed, but the upside is limited. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden Three, Silver Four" and "Golden Nine, Silver Ten" can be focused on, but the upward space during these periods may be restricted by factors such as inventory and supply [97][99]. - **Investment Outlook**: The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, and investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [3][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant industry investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, it is highly likely that the price center of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures will decline, and the volatility will continue to converge. The supply - side growth will gradually absorb the "bonus" of the detour caused by the Red Sea crisis, and the global maritime trade growth rate on the demand side may slow down [2][101]. - In 2026, the supply and demand of the Europe Line will both increase, but it is highly probable that the supply - demand situation will become looser. The annual freight rate center of the Europe Line is expected to fluctuate between 1300 - 2500 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of approximately 850 - 1800 points [2][101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Review of Spot and Futures Price Trends**: The Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) as a service - type futures has a relatively weak anchoring between spot and forward prices. The futures price generally follows the spot seasonal pattern, with a steeper upward slope than the downward slope in each V - shaped price movement, and the price center of the V - shaped movement continues to decline. Each contract has its own trading logic, with some similarities, such as the 2602 contract being similar to the 2508 contract [6]. - **Futures Price Structure Trends**: In the two - year listing period of EC, arbitrage trading mainly relied on seasonality. However, in 2025, due to increased macro and geopolitical uncertainties, the traditional trading logic of peak and off - peak seasons may fail. In the context of the Red Sea resumption risk in 2026, the safety margin of long spreads may be easier to capture than short spreads [29]. 3.2 Supply: Static Capacity Tends to be Saturated, and There is a Risk of Red Sea Route Resumption in the Distant Future - **Capacity Development**: In 2026, the global static capacity growth rate will be 4.6%. The Europe Line is expected to receive 8 - 14 new ships, mainly for upgrading ship types and filling small gaps. The difficulty of blank sailings will increase in 2026. In terms of dynamic capacity, the actual weekly average capacity of the China - Northwest Europe route in 2025 increased by 11.4% compared to 2024. In terms of market share, the capacity of Cosco Group and Hapag - Lloyd on the Northwest Europe route has increased [34][36][37]. - **Supply Chain Event Review**: - **Port Congestion**: The average in - port capacity of major ports related to Northwest Europe increased in 2025. Port congestion can cause passive blank sailings, affect the index settlement price, and lead to the loss of customer resources of some shipping companies [47][48]. - **Impact of the US Line on the European Supply Side**: After the implementation of the equal - tariff policy on April 2, 2025, 15 US - bound ships were transferred to the European Line from April to May, increasing the supply pressure. After the relaxation of tariffs on May 12, the US Line "rushed to export", and some ships were transferred from the European Line [54]. - **Impact of the 301 Investigation on the European Line Market**: The US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries and China's counter - measures did not cause significant disruptions to the European Line container shipping market [57][58][59]. 3.3 Demand: There is No Strong Inventory - Replenishment Drive in the US in the First Half of the Year, and European Import Demand May be Resilient - **US Perspective**: In the first half of 2026, if there are no major changes in the Sino - US tariff policy, the US may maintain rigid inventory replenishment. There is no strong upward drive on the demand side, so importers do not have a strong motivation for large - scale inventory replenishment [70]. - **European Perspective**: In 2025, from January to October, Asia's exports of containers to Europe continued to grow rapidly. In 2026, European import demand may be resilient, but attention should be paid to the marginal change in the growth rate [83]. 3.4 Major Geopolitical Events and Their Impact Paths - **Middle East**: The Red Sea and potential Hormuz Strait security risks persist. Shipping companies are preparing for the resumption of the Red Sea route in 2026, but the risk has not completely disappeared, and there is no unified schedule for the west - bound resumption of the European Line. If the Red Sea route resumes, there will be an issue of over - capacity [90][91][92]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: In 2025, the situation on the battlefield tilted in favor of Russia, and there was a "28 - point cease - fire framework" proposed but not accepted. In 2026, the conflict may end with Ukraine "forced to accept a cease - fire" or "resisting firmly with Europe". The easing of the conflict may boost the import demand of the Europe - Mediterranean route and have a positive impact on the European Line [94][95]. - **Taiwan Strait**: Japan's provocations may lead to an escalation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In case of conflict, the shipping routes in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the Malacca Strait may be affected, leading to an increase in shipping prices [97][98]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - **2602 Contract**: The trading logic is similar to that of the 2508 contract, focusing on freight rate height, inflection point time, and subsequent decline rate. The current most profitable spread - filling market has ended, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and follow the delivery logic [3][102]. - **2604 and 2610 Contracts**: Market speculative funds may try to trade on the off - peak season attributes. The 2604 contract has already priced in most of the off - peak season expectations, and it is recommended to short with a fluctuating rhythm, with a fundamental resistance level of 1150 - 1250 points. The 2610 contract is suitable for trading the long - term weakening of the fundamentals and the negative impact of the Red Sea route resumption [3][102]. - **2606 and 2608 Contracts**: Due to the uncertainty of the Red Sea route resumption rhythm, there is a certain risk in unilateral long positions. In the initial stage, it is advisable to enter the market through 6 - 10 and 8 - 10 long spreads [3][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene should be watched for a bottom - reversal, with a weak start and a strong finish. In 2026, the three factors causing weakness in 2025 are expected to improve marginally, but the short - term contradiction of "weak chemical reality" remains prominent. The price is expected to be under pressure in Q1 2026, and there may be a chance of a bottom - rebound in Q2. The second half of the year depends on domestic macro - policies. The whole year is expected to show a wide - range shock with a lower - then - higher center of gravity [3][98]. - The processing fee center of styrene is expected to remain at a medium - to - high level. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain in 2026 supports its price. However, if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 fails to meet expectations or export momentum weakens, the industry chain may face a late negative feedback [4][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Pure Benzene and Styrene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 Pure Benzene Price Trend Review - In Q1 2025, due to high import volume, downstream hidden inventory pressure, and downstream losses, the pure benzene price was under pressure and showed a weak shock pattern [6]. - In the middle and late Q2, the price rebounded and stabilized due to the recovery of downstream operations, spring inspections, and the progress of tariff negotiations [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the price fluctuated downward. In Q3, it was in a shock pattern, and in Q4, it further declined due to cost and supply - demand collapses [7][8]. 3.1.2 2025 Styrene Price Review - In Q1 2025, the styrene market was weak. Although there was cost support and optimistic demand expectations at the beginning, the price declined after the Spring Festival due to weak downstream replenishment and looser cost support [14]. - In Q2, affected by international political turmoil, the price showed a shock pattern, with significant fluctuations due to tariff policies, trade negotiations, and cost changes [15]. - In Q3, supply increased while demand decreased, and the price trended weakly. Although there was a short - term price increase in late August, high inventory led to a price decline [16]. - In November, the processing fee was quickly repaired, and the basis gradually strengthened in December [17][18]. 3.2 Pure Benzene: Weak Chemical Reality vs. Strong Gasoline - Blending Expectation, Focus on Bottom - Reversal Opportunity in Q2 2026 3.2.1 Low Valuation, Marginal Supply Contraction, Pure Benzene to Gradually Find the Bottom and Rebound after Q2 2026 - In 2025, the weakness of pure benzene was due to concentrated hoarding, unfulfilled gasoline - blending expectations, and weak domestic demand [21]. - In 2026, the three factors are expected to improve marginally. The consensus hoarding expectation has weakened, gasoline - blending expectations are strong with expected import reduction, and the downstream demand price elasticity has increased [24][26][30]. - Overall, pure benzene is in a pattern of being weak in Q1 and strengthening in Q2. The performance in the second half of the year depends on domestic demand policies [32]. 3.2.2 In 2026, the Domestic Industrial Chain of Pure Benzene Has Little Contradiction in Production, Focus on Maintenance Rhythm and Overseas Capacity Exit - In 2026, the domestic production pattern is not the main contradiction for pure benzene. The core is the operating rate of existing devices. The new production of downstream products slows down, and the new production of pure benzene is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year [34]. - The key for pure benzene supply is the maintenance situation in 2026. The maintenance is less in the first half and more in the second half of the year. The private refineries mainly conduct maintenance in the first half, and the major refineries in the fourth quarter [37]. - In Asia, the production progress of pure benzene is greater than that of downstream products in 2026. Overseas devices in Europe and South Korea face the risk of exit, which may ease the high - inventory pressure [40][41]. 3.2.3 Gasoline - Blending Logic Eases the High Import Pressure of Pure Benzene, Focus on the Continuity of PX - BZ - High imports were the core problem for the weakness of pure benzene in 2025. In 2026, China's pure benzene imports are expected to decrease. The annual import is expected to be 5.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [43]. - The realization of the pure benzene logistics window between the US and Asia depends on factors such as the overseas supply recovery, the negotiation of contracts between Chinese downstream factories and overseas suppliers, and the overseas downstream device exit progress [47]. - PX - BZ has long - term driving factors. It is recommended to buy the spread after the winter cold wave in the US causes an aromatic hydrocarbon callback [49]. 3.3 Styrene: The Processing Fee Center Moves Up 3.3.1 In 2026, There Is Little New Production of Styrene, and the Processing Fee Remains at a Medium - to - High Level - In 2026, the new production of styrene is limited, with only 600,000 tons of Huajin Aramco to be put into production. The downstream production is relatively large [52]. - It is expected that the annual processing fee range of styrene in 2026 will remain at a medium - to - high level, mainly because the high - inventory problem of pure benzene needs time to be solved, and the negative feedback of styrene's downstream 3S is postponed [53]. 3.3.2 The Overseas Production of Styrene Is Low, Focus on the Export Increment in 2026 - Global styrene capacity has been exiting, and overseas production has been shrinking. The low overseas production in 2025 is beneficial to the operation and profit of domestic styrene [55]. - Against the background of low overseas supply, China's styrene industry chain exports have gradually increased. In 2025, the exports of styrene, ABS, and PS increased year - on - year, and direct exports are expected to become more normalized [57]. 3.3.3 The Downstream 3S Maintains High Apparent Demand at Low Prices, Focus on the Late Negative Feedback in the First Half of 2026 - In 2025, the apparent demand growth rate of styrene was 13.7%. The downstream 3S maintained rapid growth due to capacity expansion, substitution effects, and stable exports [61]. - Currently, the downstream factories have high inventory but low actual pressure. However, in the first half of 2026, if the peak season demand cannot drive inventory transfer, the industry chain may face negative feedback [67][78]. - 2026 is a year of transformation for the strength of domestic and export demand for home appliances. If domestic demand policies do not work, the 3S with high inventory may face pressure in the first half of the year, and the market may improve in the second half [79]. 3.4 Other Demands for Pure Benzene: Capacity Reaches the Peak, and the Growth Rates of the Four Downstream Sectors Decline 3.4.1 The Apparent Demand Growth Rate of the Four Small Downstream Sectors Is Weaker than That of Styrene - In 2025, the demand proportion of styrene recovered, while that of aniline and phenol decreased significantly. The growth rates of the four small downstream sectors were weaker than that of styrene, mainly due to the end of the production cycle and weak domestic demand [85]. 3.4.2 It Is Expected that the Growth Rates of Caprolactam and Aniline Will Remain at 5% - 6% in 2026 - It is expected that the overall demand growth rate of caprolactam in 2026 will be about 5%. The growth rate in 2025 was lower than expected. In 2026, factors such as profit repair and potential domestic demand recovery will support its growth [88]. - It is expected that the apparent demand of aniline in 2026 will be 3.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2025, the demand was lower than expected. In 2026, it is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic demand and increased direct exports [91]. 3.4.3 Phenol Will Have a Major Maintenance Year in 2026, and the Annual Apparent Demand Is Expected to Increase by 2.4% Year - on - Year - In 2025, the apparent demand of phenol was flat year - on - year. In 2026, due to maintenance in the first half of the year and new device production in the second half, the annual apparent demand is expected to be 5.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [93]. 3.4.4 It Is Expected that the Growth Rate of Adipic Acid Will Remain at + 3.7% in 2026 - In 2025, adipic acid and its downstream industry chain prices and profits were low. In 2026, with only 180,000 tons of new production planned, the annual apparent demand is expected to increase by 3.7% year - on - year [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper price will fluctuate and seek the bottom throughout the year, with possible seasonal rebounds. The estimated price fluctuation range for the first half of 2026 is about 3,600 - 4,400 yuan/ton [3][83]. - The supply side will still see new capacity put into operation, and the resumption of production at Zhanjiang Chenming is on the agenda. The demand side will continue to be stable. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the contradiction is relatively alleviated. Short - selling on rallies is still a relatively safe choice [3][83]. - Double - offset paper consumption has obvious seasonality. From March to May (with a delay in recent years) and from September to November are the tendering time points for the next spring's teaching and auxiliary materials. During these periods, there may be seasonal inventory replenishment in the distributor link and improved consumption, driving the paper price to rebound [3][83]. - The long - term decline of paper prices has forced paper mills to adjust formulas and optimize costs. The ton - paper costs of mainstream large - scale mills are concentrated in the range of 3,750 - 4,350 yuan/ton, and enterprises with integrated layouts have stronger competitiveness [3][83]. - In terms of bargaining power, pulp mills have stronger bargaining power than paper mills. From the perspective of industrial chain transmission, production enterprises naturally have the willingness to raise prices, but whether it can be implemented still depends on many factors [3][83]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Low - price Quagmire under Weak Supply and Demand 1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the price center of the domestic double - offset paper spot market moved down significantly, and the double - offset paper futures generally maintained a range - bound trend after listing [6]. - From January to March 2025, the double - offset paper price remained firm. The price of natural white double - offset paper fluctuated between 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the high - white double - offset paper price was between 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton. The support for the paper price came from strong pulp prices before the Spring Festival, reduced supply pressure due to the shutdown of most production lines of Chenming Paper, and short - term inventory replenishment by distributors. The upward pressure came from the lack of concentrated tendering by publishers, poor continuity of printer orders, and the decline of pulp prices after the Spring Festival [6]. - Since April 2025, the spot market has shown a unilateral downward trend. The average price of natural white double - offset paper has fallen to about 4,400 yuan/ton, and the high - white double - offset paper price has fallen to about 4,700 yuan/ton. The reasons include the decline in double - offset paper consumption due to the population cycle and the "one textbook, one supplementary material" policy, the resumption of production at some Chenming production bases, and the limited support of pulp prices for paper prices [7]. - In the futures market, the trading volume and open interest of double - offset paper futures were low at the beginning of listing and gradually improved later. After the introduction of market - makers by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the activity of double - offset paper futures increased significantly. As of early December, the open interest of the main contract exceeded 18,000 lots, and the trading volume was in the range of 3,000 - 5,000 lots. The futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the basis was always positive [9]. 1.2 Profit Characteristics - Due to the stronger scarcity of pulp than finished paper, higher downstream dependence on high - quality virgin wood pulp, and more severe downstream supply - demand surplus, the upstream has stronger bargaining power, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the downstream to the upstream. After April 2025, the pulp price was relatively firm, the production cost of double - offset paper increased, and the gross profit per ton declined significantly, reaching a historical low [12]. 2. The Pressure of Capacity Expansion Eases, but Supply Remains in Excess 2.1 Slowdown in Domestic Capacity Expansion - The double - offset paper production capacity expansion cycle is not over, but the growth rate of capacity expansion has slowed down. In 2025, the newly put - into - operation cultural paper capacity in China was about 1.9 million tons, mainly double - offset paper. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the domestic double - offset paper capacity will reach 17.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In 2026, Liansheng will put into operation two cultural paper production lines with a total capacity of about 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the domestic double - offset paper capacity in 2026 will be 19.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.67% [20]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of the cultural paper industry should be considered comprehensively. Since specific paper machines can produce multiple paper types, simply using double - offset paper production divided by the total cultural paper capacity may underestimate the industry's capacity utilization rate. The overall operating level of the uncoated woodfree paper industry may remain at around 79% [24][25]. 2.2 Resumption of Production at Chenming Paper - The resumption of production at Zhanjiang Chenming is on the agenda, and the supply pressure will increase. The company plans to resume production at the Zhanjiang base by the end of the year, and the market expects two cultural paper production lines with a total capacity of about 450,000 tons and one chemimechanical pulp production line to start operation in January 2026 [28]. - In 2025, from January to October, the domestic double - offset paper production decreased significantly due to the decline in terminal demand and insufficient orders. From January to November 2025, the double - offset paper production statistics from different information agencies showed a decline. The industry's operating rate was generally low, and although there was a slight improvement in November, it still reflected the supply - side surplus [30][33]. 2.3 Imports Remain at a Low Level - China has a low import dependence on double - offset paper. From 2021 to 2025, the import volume of double - offset paper in China showed a decreasing trend. In 2025, from January to October, the import volume of double - offset paper was about 142,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%, mainly due to the prominent domestic supply - demand contradiction and the lack of price advantage for imported paper [36]. 3. Demand Remains Stable with Little Fluctuation 3.1 Consumption Structure and Apparent Consumption Performance in 2025 - The main domestic consumption of double - offset paper comes from books, accounting for about 90% of the total consumption. The consumption of books and notebooks has declined in recent years due to the population cycle and policies, while the consumption of periodicals and other products has remained relatively stable [38]. - In 2025, from January to October, the apparent consumption of double - offset paper decreased significantly. According to different information agencies' statistics, the year - on - year decrease ranged from 5% to 10% [42]. 3.2 Slow Growth in Terminal Consumption - From January to October 2025, the consumption of double - offset paper continued to decline due to the "one textbook, one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle decline. The consumption has obvious seasonality, with traditional peak seasons from March to May and from October to December. However, in recent years, the tendering and printing time of autumn teaching and auxiliary materials have been delayed [44][45]. - The decline in the consumption of standard products is mainly due to the "one subject, one supplementary material" policy and the decrease in the number of school - age students. The "double - reduction" and "one subject, one supplementary material" policies have reduced the demand for teaching and training supplementary materials. The number of school - age students is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [47][50]. - The consumption of social books is also affected by e - reading, but the growth rate of the Chinese online literature user scale has slowed down. The "National Reading Promotion Regulations" to be implemented in 2026 may drive the consumption of double - offset paper for social books [52][54]. 3.3 Exports May Remain Stable - The export volume of double - offset paper in China has increased first and then decreased in the past five years. In 2024, it was about 970,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. In 2025, from January to October, the export volume decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to the increasing international environmental uncertainty and the loss of some overseas orders [57][60]. - China's double - offset paper exports are mainly to Southeast Asian countries. In 2025, from January to October, the top five export destinations were Japan, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, and Hong Kong, China. Considering the local market conditions and the relaxation of the US tariff policy on China, the exports in 2026 may remain stable [62]. 3.4 Synchronous Inventory Accumulation in the Upstream and Downstream - Since the second half of 2025, the industrial chain inventory has shown synchronous accumulation in social inventory and enterprise inventory. Different information agencies' statistics show some differences, but the overall trend is inventory accumulation. It is expected that paper mills will still face inventory - reduction pressure in the first half of 2026, which is negative for the price [66][67]. 4. How to Measure the Pulp - Paper Contradiction 4.1 Spot Profit Calculation - The current apparent profit level of the pulp - paper industry has reached the lowest level in the same period of history, but there has been no large - scale capacity clearance. The main reason is the adjustment of formulas and cost optimization by paper mills. The mainstream large - scale mills' ton - paper costs are concentrated in the range of 3,750 - 4,350 yuan/ton [72]. - Newly added capacity is mostly equipped with pulp lines. Enterprises with integrated layouts have stronger competitiveness. In 2026, more pulp lines will be put into operation, further enhancing the cost advantage and competitiveness of integrated enterprises [73]. - It is expected that about 3.45 million tons of pulp capacity will be put into operation in China in 2026, and the growth rate of capacity expansion will slow down. The supply pressure will be mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter [74]. 4.2 Strengthened Linkage between Pulp and Paper - The contradiction between pulp and paper has deepened in recent years. The reasons include the higher scarcity of pulp, higher dependence on imported pulp in China, more concentrated upstream pulp mill capacity, and higher supply surplus in the papermaking industry [76][79][80]. - As the downstream profit is continuously compressed, the price linkage between pulp and paper is strengthening. Whether pulp mills and paper mills can raise prices depends on factors such as maintaining stable customer orders, inventory pressure, downstream customer acceptance, and market seasonality and price expectations [80]. 5. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The paper price will fluctuate and seek the bottom throughout the year, with possible seasonal rebounds. The estimated price fluctuation range for the first half of 2026 is about 3,600 - 4,400 yuan/ton [83]. - Investment outlook: In the first half of 2026, conduct bilateral operations around the range of 3,600 - 4,400 yuan/ton; short - sell processing profits on rallies (long SP, short OP) [83].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - fiber futures price in 2026 is expected to be weak first and then strong in the first half of the year, and may decline again due to supply pressure resonance in the second half or Q4. The inflection point in the first half focuses on the negative feedback of high polyester inventory after the Spring Festival, and the second half focuses on the production resonance of PX and short - fiber segments. [3][77] - The short - fiber market will see an increase in both supply and demand in 2026, but supply growth will be more significant. [77] - When considering the short - fiber - bottle chip spread, it is recommended to evaluate them separately and look for spread opportunities when the supply rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers. [3][78] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Short - fiber Futures Trend Review 1.1 Short - fiber Spot and Futures Price Trend Review - In 2025, short - fiber prices experienced a pattern of volatile decline, a sharp drop due to tariff issues followed by a quick rebound, and then a shift to a volatile and weak trend. Macro and cost factors dominated the market for most of the year, and the short - fiber's fundamentals sometimes echoed macro issues and sometimes just followed the market passively. [6] - The price fluctuations were significantly affected by macro factors, with an increased positive correlation between the commodity and stock markets. The processing fee amplitude narrowed, and the basis and monthly spread mostly maintained a neutral - to - weak oscillation. [9] 1.2 2025 Short - fiber Volatility Performance Review - In 2025, short - fiber volatility increased significantly in the first half due to the repeated US tariff policies, and narrowed in the second half. The volatility remained at a low level since 2021, mainly because of the increased supply elasticity and profit compression caused by the expansion of the industrial chain's mid - and downstream sectors. [13] 2. Cost - end Operation Logic and Viewpoint Summary 2.1 Naphtha: Transition from Shortage to Tight Balance - In 2026, naphtha supply will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The Asian naphtha market will be in a tight - balance state in the first half, with a slight de - stocking trend, and may move towards oversupply in the second half. [16] 2.2 PX, PTA: Focus on Supply Fluctuations, PX is Stronger - The unilateral prices of PX and PTA will be weak in the first half and strong in the second half. It is recommended to go long on PXN at low prices, short the PTA - PX spread, and conduct basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage. The potential seasonal negative factor in the first half is the poor domestic clothing and export orders after the Spring Festival, leading to unexpected inventory accumulation. [17][18] 2.3 MEG: Overcapacity, Focus on Unplanned Production Cuts and Cost Bottoming - Ethylene glycol has overcapacity, and unplanned production cuts are needed to reverse the trend of significant inventory increase. The annual consumption of ethylene glycol is estimated to be 2.95 million tons in 2026, while the domestic production capacity will gradually rise to 3.25 million tons. [19][20] 3. 2026 Short - fiber Futures Operation Logic 3.1 Supply Side: Many New Devices, Focus on Fluctuations Caused by Upstream Anti - involution and Industry Self - discipline - In 2026, there are many planned short - fiber devices in China, with production pressure concentrated in the second half of the year. The annual capacity growth rate is expected to be 11% year - on - year. The actual supply rhythm will be neutral in the first half, and the pressure will be fully realized in the second half. [21][31] - Anti - involution and industry self - discipline are expected to be the main variables for seasonal supply - side fluctuations. The non - standard price spread may face downward pressure, which will affect the comprehensive profit of short - fiber factories. [23][27][31] 3.2 Demand Side: Robust Domestic Demand, Strong Export 3.2.1 Domestic Demand: Steady Growth in Total, Limited Drive of New Consumption Directions on Fiber Consumption - The growth trend of investment in textile, clothing, and apparel industries is weakening. The growth rate of the textile, clothing, and home - textile sectors is expected to decline in 2026. The overall growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand in 2026 is estimated to be around 4% - 5%. [32][46] 3.2.2 Yarn: Regional Differentiation, High Competition Pattern - In the yarn - spinning segment, attention should be paid to the incremental demand from regions such as Xinjiang and Southwest China, as well as the substitution of ring - spinning by air - vortex spinning. The cost advantages of these two factors may intensify the processing fee competition in the main yarn production areas. [47] - Xinjiang's textile industry is in a high - growth cycle, and its textile industry chain is extending from cotton - spinning to blended - spinning and polyester. Enterprises in the East are expected to face continuous competition pressure from low - cost products in Xinjiang. [50][51] 3.2.3 Export: Easing Tariffs, Continuous "Going Global" of Downstream Enterprises, Optimistic Short - fiber Export - The reduction of terminal export tariffs to the US and the stable export chain expectations are beneficial to China's long - term textile and clothing exports. In 2026, the competitiveness of China's textile and clothing exports to the US is expected to increase marginally. [57][58] - The overseas demand in Europe and the US is good, and the import volume provides support. The export of textile machinery has increased significantly, and the direct export demand for polyester has expanded. In 2025, short - fiber exports increased by 29.5% year - on - year, and the export growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 20%. [60][62][74] 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The short - fiber price in 2026 will be weak first and then strong in the first half, and may decline again in the second half or Q4. The processing fee will be compressed, mainly transferred to the PX segment, and there are opportunities for basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage in the first half. In the second half, pay attention to the production progress of PX and short - fiber segments and the possibility of joint production cuts in the off - season to trade the processing fee spread. [77] - For the short - fiber - bottle chip spread, it is recommended to evaluate them separately in 2026, and look for spread opportunities when the supply rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers. [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From an annual perspective, the center of rubber prices is expected to rise slightly, but both upward and downward spaces are limited. Throughout the year, the supply - demand rhythm is mismatched, making it difficult to form a trend - based market. Instead, attention can be paid to volatility opportunities [2][3]. - In the destocking cycle with decreasing supply and increasing demand, the market has a consistent long - term bullish sentiment. Buying at low prices has a relatively high cost - performance ratio. The annual high can refer to seasonal highs, such as around September when weather disturbances are frequent and at the end of the year when automobile sales peak [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tianjiao (Natural Rubber) Trend Review 3.1.1 Review of Futures and Spot Price Trends - From the beginning of the year to March 3, rubber prices fluctuated. RU weighted closing price fell 0.23%, while NR rose 3.08%. The initial decline was due to increased supply expectations and weak downstream demand, and the subsequent rebound was caused by weather disturbances and increased tire enterprise stocking [5]. - From March 3 to May 30, rubber experienced three rounds of decline. RU fell 23.91%, and NR fell 23.98%. The decline was mainly due to factors such as increased supply, high tire inventory, trade conflicts, and anti - dumping investigations [6]. - From May 30 to September 8, rubber prices generally rose. RU rose 19.63%, and NR rose 11.48%. The rise was due to delayed supply increase, improved downstream demand, and macro - level positive factors [7]. - From September 8 to November 21, rubber prices fluctuated downward. RU fell 5.71%, and NR fell 5.80%. The decline was caused by increased negative factors on the demand side and expected supply increase [8]. 3.1.2 Review of Volatility Performance - By November 21, 2025, rubber experienced four high - volatility periods. The first was from January to mid - February, mainly due to supply - demand tightness and market sentiment. The second was in early April, caused by the US's unexpected tariff increase. The third was from late May to mid - June, affected by a series of events. The fourth was from late July to mid - August, dominated by macro factors [13][14][15]. 3.2 2026 Tianjiao Operation Logic: Finding Low - Buying Opportunities in the Destocking Cycle, with Annual Highs Possibly Referring to Seasonal Patterns 3.2.1 Supply Side - Thai rubber inventory is expected to remain low at the beginning of 2026. Due to weather factors and delayed order fulfillment, the low - inventory situation may persist until the second quarter of 2026. Three major Thai rubber processing companies plan to expand their production capacity by 620,000 tons in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of about 13.35% [19][20]. - Yunnan's concentrated latex processing plants are expanding, and the diversion of concentrated latex is becoming more common. In 2025 - 2026, Yunnan's Xishuangbanna plans to add 50,000 tons of concentrated latex processing capacity [21]. - In 2025, there was rainfall interference in major rubber - producing areas, but most areas saw an increase in production due to factors such as increased tapping willingness. Currently, raw material supply has certain elasticity, but in the context of aging rubber trees in Southeast Asia, prices need to remain high to maintain production [24][37][38]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The peak of China's tire industry's overseas capacity expansion is over. The first - round overseas layout was mainly in Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries, the second - round was closer to the core consumer markets in Europe and the United States, and the third - round may target emerging markets in Africa and South America. After 2026, the planned tire production is expected to decrease, and the impact on domestic tire exports is expected to weaken [43][45][51]. - The EU's anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on Chinese tires are the biggest risk for exports. If the anti - dumping measures are implemented, it will have a negative impact on China's tire exports in 2026, especially on passenger car tires. However, Chinese tire companies have experience in dealing with such situations and may take measures such as diversifying exports and re - exporting [55][63][64]. - Domestic tire demand is highly dependent on policies. In 2025, policies such as trade - in subsidies significantly boosted automobile sales, but the decline in subsidies may lead to a slowdown in demand. Although there are factors such as demand pre - release, the overall policy direction of boosting consumption remains unchanged, and domestic demand is expected to gradually stabilize [73][80][82]. 3.2.3 Futures - Spot Price Difference - The absolute valuation of RU is at a relatively low position in the historical range, which may attract long - term downstream buyers [84]. - The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubber has been narrowing, but this trend may slow down in 2026. Dark - colored rubber may be affected by factors such as African tariff adjustments, potential inclusion in alternative delivery products, and EUDR delays. Light - colored rubber may be supported by factors such as reduced raw material imports from Laos and local concentrated latex expansion in Yunnan [88][89]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the upward and downward spaces of rubber prices are limited. The supply - demand rhythm is mismatched throughout the year, making it difficult to form a trend - based market. Instead, attention can be paid to volatility opportunities [94][96]. - In the first half of the year, raw material prices are difficult to decline, but demand is under pressure. In the second half of the year, supply will increase, and there will be more positive factors on the demand side [96]. - The investment outlook is to focus on band trading. At the beginning of the year, beware of the risk of EU anti - dumping measures and hold positions cautiously. Buying at low prices has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and the annual high can refer to seasonal highs [4][97].

Report Title - Central Point Continues to Decline, Focus on Arbitrage under Oil Transport Disturbance - 2026 Annual Outlook for Crude Oil Futures [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - BRENT, WTI may test $50/barrel, SC may test CNY 380/barrel, and a trend rebound may not occur until the second half of 2026 [2] - Global inventory accumulation is the major trend under the increased production of OPEC+, the US, and non-OPEC+ countries, especially in the first half of the year; geopolitics and the oil transport market are the key variables [2] - The strategy is to short on rallies and focus on various types of arbitrage [3] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Crude Oil Price Trend Review - In 2025, the international crude oil market was affected by seasonality and macro factors. The price center shifted downward year-on-year [6] - In Q1, prices first rose and then fell. In Q2, prices bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the month. In Q3, prices did not rise during the peak season and instead declined. In Q4, prices fell due to geopolitical and trade issues [6] 2. Supplementary Notes on Oil Price Influencing Factors and Pricing Mechanisms - The negative correlation between oil prices and the US dollar is difficult to recover in 2026 due to high core PCE in the US and a moderate pace of interest rate cuts [10] 3. Supply 3.1 US Shale Oil - The transmission logic of oil prices to shale oil involves multiple steps, with a time lag [15] - In 2025, production efficiency increased through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, offsetting the decline in the number of rigs [20] - Shale oil still faces cost pressure, including high break-even prices and increased equipment costs due to tariffs [28] - In 2026, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, with increases in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska offsetting the decline in the lower 48 states [33] 3.2 OPEC+ - In 2025, OPEC+ gradually exited production cuts and increased production, with an 80% completion rate by the end of the year [42] - In 2026, OPEC+ will adopt a "wait-and-see, then intervene" policy, with production policy adjustments depending on market conditions [77] - There are significant differences in OPEC production data among different institutions, which may lead to a reevaluation of the market's understanding of OPEC's remaining production capacity and global oil demand [55] 3.3 Non-OPEC+ - In 2025, non-OPEC+ supply increased by 1.7 million barrels per day, driven by offshore projects [88] - In 2026, the supply growth rate will slow down to 1.2 million barrels per day, with the Americas and the North Sea remaining the main sources of growth [89] 3.4 Supply Side Summary - In 2026, the global crude oil supply pattern remains uncertain. US production is expected to be stable, non-OPEC+ growth will slow down, and Russia's production may decline [94] 4. Geopolitical Disturbance and Trade Flow Changes 4.1 Observation Dimensions of Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitical events affect the crude oil market through price signals, market structure, and capital flow [95] 4.2 Major Geopolitical Events and Their Impact Paths - The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, with the prospect of a ceasefire remaining uncertain. The outcome will affect the global oil market through supply and price premiums [105] - Venezuela's geopolitical risk is increasing, which will affect the heavy oil supply and price differentials [116] - The Middle East remains a high-risk area, with potential events such as the resurgence of the Iran-Israel conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [128] - Tensions in East Asia due to Japan's actions may disrupt key oil trade routes [132] 4.3 Importance of the Oil Transport Market - The oil transport market has become increasingly important, with运费 fluctuations affecting crude oil cross-regional spreads [141] - In 2025, oil transport freight rates increased significantly in Q4, and the market is expected to remain volatile in 2026 [145] 4.4 Key Points of Various Cross-Regional Arbitrages - SC-Dubai and SC-Brent spreads are affected by oil transport freight rates and regional inventories [169] - The EFS spread is expected to remain low in 2026 due to limited European demand and supply changes [178] - The Brent-WTI spread will continue to be influenced by freight rates in 2026 [179] 4.5 Key Points of Calendar Spread Arbitrage - SC calendar spreads are affected by supply and demand expectations, inventory levels, and arbitrage opportunities [183] - In 2026, SC calendar spreads are expected to remain flat in the first half of the year, with positive calendar spread arbitrage being the preferred strategy [190] 5. Global Refining Capacity and Supply-Demand Balance 5.1 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, global refining capacity increased by 232,250 barrels per day [191] - In 2026, global refining capacity is planned to increase by 1.45265 million barrels per day, mainly in Asia [195] 5.2 Refining Capacity Changes from 2021 to 2030 - From 2021 to 2025, global refining capacity decreased significantly, while from 2026 to 2030, it will show a trend of short-term rebound, continuous decline, and low-level fluctuation [203][204] - Asia will remain the core of global refining capacity growth, but the growth rate will slow down [206] 5.3 Refining Capacity Summary - In 2026, refining capacity changes will affect price differentials, but other factors such as freight rates and OPEC+ production adjustments also need to be considered [209] 6. Strategy Summary - In 2026, the crude oil market will be characterized by intensified supply-demand games, frequent geopolitical disturbances, and a reshaped oil transport pattern [210] - The price center is likely to continue to decline, and inventory accumulation will be the main trend, especially in the first half of the year [210] - The strategy is to short on rallies and focus on various types of arbitrage opportunities [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the core contradiction in the caustic soda market will revolve around the conflict between "high supply and high inventory" and "negative feedback in the industrial chain due to low profits in the alumina industry." The market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bull market, and the annual price center will be under pressure, likely oscillating within a wide range formed by the "cash - flow cost line" and "downstream periodic restocking." The market will feature an interweaving of "normal pressure" and "pulse rebounds," with the greatest price elasticity and uncertainty coming from unexpected production cuts by chlor - alkali enterprises. Key factors to track include high - frequency inventory data, the pace of alumina production capacity launch, and marginal changes in industrial profits [2][67]. - Domestic terminal demand for caustic soda in China will have limited incremental growth in 2026, while the export market will still show prominent growth. Attention should be paid to short - term supply - demand mismatches in the caustic soda market caused by new alumina production capacity launches and the decline in rigid demand and inventory hoarding due to alumina production cuts. The low - profit situation of caustic soda may lead to unexpected maintenance next year, and major supply - reduction contradictions may come from the passive production cuts of caustic soda caused by PVC. In 2026, the caustic soda delivery rules will be modified, which will change the premium and discount of delivery products and delivery areas, adjust the warehouse receipt trade flow, and intensify the impact of warehouse receipts on the market in the short term [2][67]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 2025 Caustic Soda Trend Review - The caustic soda market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations from expectation - driven to fundamentals - dominated. The annual trend can be divided into four main stages: a trend - based upward movement driven by strong expectations from early January to before the Spring Festival; a negative - feedback downward movement due to high profits and weak demand from after the Spring Festival to early May; an interweaving of cost collapse and rebounds from early May to August; and a continuous bottom - seeking under demand negative feedback and high inventory from September onwards [6]. - **First stage (Early January - Before the Spring Festival)**: Driven by the resonance of strong expectations and reality, including alumina industry capacity expansion, pre - production stocking, supply concerns from planned maintenance in South China, and increased overseas export orders, caustic soda prices rose, and inventory decreased. The futures main - contract price reached a maximum of 3358 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, an increase of about 14.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - **Second stage (After the Spring Festival - Early May)**: The market logic shifted. High profits led to high operating rates, but demand was weak. Non - aluminum demand recovered slowly, alumina enterprises reduced inventory and pressured prices, and South China's maintenance devices resumed production, leading to a downward trend in the market [8]. - **Third stage (Early May - August)**: Prices rebounded due to short - term restocking demand from new alumina production lines in early May, but cost collapse due to falling coal prices and lower electricity prices led to high profits and a "short - profit" trading logic. A rebound from late June to late August was driven by seasonal maintenance and policy expectations, but it did not change the loose supply - demand situation [9]. - **Fourth stage (September - Present)**: In the fourth quarter, the market continued to seek the bottom. Alumina production cuts due to low profits reduced demand, non - aluminum demand was limited, and exports faced pressure. High operating rates during the off - peak maintenance season led to high inventory, and prices hit new lows, falling below 2200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 2026 Caustic Soda Demand Pattern - **External demand drives growth, and domestic demand shows differentiation**: In 2026, China's caustic soda demand pattern will feature external demand driving growth and domestic demand showing differentiation. The export market will remain the core growth driver, with the driving logic shifting to a "structural supply gap" in resource - rich countries like Indonesia. Domestic demand will vary: the alumina industry will have complex demand for caustic soda, the pulp and paper industry will have limited incremental demand, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable demand, and the printing and dyeing industry will have a stable but un - supportive demand [13]. - **Alumina industry**: In 2026, China's alumina industry will continue to expand production capacity, with about 13.9 million tons of new capacity planned to be put into production in the first half of the year. However, the industry is facing over - supply, and competition will intensify. The demand for caustic soda will show periodic and structural characteristics, with short - term pulse demand from new capacity launches and long - term suppression due to profit concerns. The overall profit situation of the alumina industry will determine the intensity of its demand for caustic soda, and cost - structure differences will lead to demand differentiation [14][22]. - **Pulp and paper industry**: In 2026, the global and Chinese pulp industry will face a complex situation of tightening overseas supply and expanding domestic supply. The demand for caustic soda will be mainly rigid, with limited growth elasticity and high cost sensitivity. Although new domestic chemical pulp capacity will be put into production, it will not significantly increase the overall demand for caustic soda [23][27]. - **Viscose staple fiber industry**: In 2026, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable and rigid demand for caustic soda. The industry has a concentrated supply pattern, stable demand, and expected profit recovery, which will support high operating rates and continuous demand for caustic soda [30][31]. - **Printing and dyeing industry**: In 2026, the printing and dyeing industry will provide a stable demand base for caustic soda, but its weak profitability will limit its ability to support caustic soda prices. The industry is in a state of low profit or loss, and enterprises will adopt a conservative procurement strategy [35]. - **Export market**: In 2025, China's caustic soda exports increased significantly, with Indonesia becoming the largest export market. In 2026, exports are expected to continue to grow, with an expected year - on - year increase of over 20% and a total volume expected to exceed 4.5 million tons. However, potential risks include the construction of local production capacity in overseas markets, increased international competition, and uncertain trade policies [37][38]. 3.3 2026 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production cuts may exceed expectations**: In 2026, the caustic soda supply side will face the coexistence of "certain production capacity expansion" and "uncertain adjustment effects." The overall supply capacity will continue to grow, but the market will focus on the game between fixed costs and fluctuating marginal profits. Cash - flow cost will form a "hard bottom" for prices, and seasonal and policy - related factors will drive price fluctuations [43]. - **Expected production capacity and output**: In 2026, the caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase by 2.56 million tons, a 5% increase. However, the actual production capacity increase may be about 3% due to the influence of the loss situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries. The annual output is expected to reach or exceed 45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 5% [44]. - **Cost and profit**: In 2026, the core game on the supply side will revolve around cost and profit. The cost side is expected to provide stronger support, but profit expansion is difficult due to over - supply and weak downstream profitability. The effectiveness of profit - to - supply transmission needs to be verified, and large - scale and long - term active production cuts of caustic soda may depend on the passive production cuts caused by PVC [47]. - **Impact of loss in chlorine - consuming downstream industries**: The loss of chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC will affect the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn affects the comprehensive profit of caustic soda enterprises. When the comprehensive profit is in deficit, enterprises may reduce production. In 2026, the maintenance intensity in spring and summer may exceed that of this year [50]. - **Supply - demand mismatch due to seasonal maintenance and inventory hoarding**: Seasonal maintenance, especially from June to August, can ease the supply pressure. However, when the maintenance season ends, supply will increase. High inventory in 2025 has suppressed demand. When the off - season ends and downstream starts to stock up or new alumina production capacity is launched, a supply - demand mismatch may occur [56][59]. 4. Investment Outlook - **Single - side trading**: In terms of trends, the valuation of caustic soda is under pressure, but it is not advisable to short at the cash - flow cost. Attention should be paid to short - term long - buying opportunities brought by caustic soda supply cuts [3][67]. - **Calendar - spread arbitrage**: There is a positive - spread window period during the peak maintenance season. Attention should be paid to the rebound driven by production cuts and the corresponding downstream active inventory - hoarding space and rhythm [3][68]. - **Key time nodes**: After the Spring Festival, around the start of spring maintenance in March, the situation of summer maintenance from June to August, and before the National Day [3][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a year of evolution in the supply - demand pattern, the valuations of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region have been completely reshaped and are currently at historical lows, which basically match the current supply - demand situation. In 2026, on the premise of fully reshaped valuations and a return to a tight supply - demand balance, seasonal and sudden events will drive the market [2]. - The sanctions and geopolitical conflicts have led to a gradual decline in Russia's supply. In 2026, Latin America's supply may also change due to refinery startups. The Middle East, as the core region for global high - sulfur component supply, will continue to increase in importance. On the demand side, marine fuel and power generation can still support the valuation of high - sulfur fuel oil, but there is a certain drag from the refining end. For low - sulfur fuel oil, its consumption may have reached the bottom in recent years in 2025, indicating that the drag on the demand side may gradually weaken in 2026. In terms of supply, regions with low elasticity such as Brazil and Indonesia still dominate, and the supply changes in these regions and other regions with high elasticity will cause marginal changes in the market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 2025, due to sanctions on Russia and drone attacks in Ukraine, there was a shortage of high - sulfur supply in Russia, leading to a continuous decline in heavy oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah. High - sulfur prices remained strong. Meanwhile, as Q1 is the off - season for marine fuel demand, the market share of high - sulfur fuel oil continued to rise, and low - sulfur fuel oil was relatively weak both at home and abroad, causing the high - low sulfur spread to narrow rapidly to a historical low [6]. - In Q2, the seasonal demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation and marine fuel was gradually realized, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East further strengthened the strength of the high - sulfur market. High - sulfur prices and cracking reached their annual highs. However, later, the strength comparison between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil began to change. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the full pricing of Russia's supply shortage, the factors supporting the high valuation of high - sulfur fuel oil gradually disappeared. On the low - sulfur side, the centralized maintenance of some major production areas and the adjustment of the yield of gasoline, diesel, and low - sulfur fuel oil by domestic refineries jointly promoted the strengthening of low - sulfur fuel oil at home and abroad. From the end of Q2, the high - low sulfur spread stopped narrowing and rebounded in Q3 [6]. - At the end of the year, the continuous decline in crude oil prices drove down the price center of the entire fuel oil market. The high export volume of fuel oil from the Middle East and the intermittent supply shortage of low - sulfur fuel oil led to a more obvious decline in high - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market, and the high - low sulfur spread remained at the annual high [6]. 3.2 Global Refining Industry Review and Outlook 3.2.1 Global Refined Oil Demand - The demand for global refined oil shows a trend of "new replacing old". Traditional consumption areas such as China and the United States are losing their driving force for global demand growth, while emerging consumption areas such as India and Southeast Asia are becoming new growth drivers. The structural contradictions between different regions or different oil products may be more obvious than the total contradictions and are more likely to break the balance [9][10]. - Seasonal consumption is still an important anchor for demand changes, but it is increasingly affected by sudden events. In 2026, the impact of various sudden events on seasonality needs to be closely monitored [11]. 3.2.2 Global Refining Capacity Changes and Outlook - In H1 2025, due to sanctions, trade wars, and geopolitical conflicts, the refining capacity in some regions declined. However, the rise in the prices of refined oil products gradually repaired refinery profits, and the operating rate rebounded from the bottom. In Q3, the traditional refining maintenance season led to an increase in supply shortages and an upward movement in production profits [32]. - In 2026, traditional refining countries and regions need stable refining profits to maintain a stable operating rate. Russia's production decline is mainly due to sanctions and geopolitical conflicts. The Middle East and India will play an important role in ensuring the stable production of global refined oil, but they also face some challenges such as geopolitical conflicts and sanctions [35][36]. - The rapid increase in refining capacity utilization in H2 2025 may lead to short - term supply surpluses in 2026, causing prices and spreads to fall rapidly from high levels [37]. 3.2.3 Summary - The demand for global refined oil is in a situation of "new replacing old", and seasonality is still the core factor determining demand realization. However, the impact of sudden events on demand needs to be noted. On the supply side, the global refining industry needs to maintain stability in multiple dimensions to ensure a certain capacity utilization rate. The situation at the end of 2025 may reverse in 2026, and uncertainty is the most prominent feature of the current global refined oil market [60]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil 3.3.1 Supply - The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is characterized by "low elasticity and high concentration". Russia's supply is affected by drone attacks and sanctions, and there may be a reduction in exports of 200 - 300 million tons in 2026. The new Dos Bocas refinery in Mexico may reduce the export of heavy components, and Venezuela's supply is also restricted by sanctions [61][62][64]. - The Middle East will play a decisive role in the global high - sulfur fuel oil market. Its supply is relatively stable, and its export direction can be judged by trade arbitrage economics. In 2026, the recovery of Russia's exports will be a marginal variable for the Asia - Pacific market, and attention should be paid to the possible westward flow of Middle East supplies [65][66]. 3.3.2 Demand - The market share of high - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel market continues to increase due to the growth of desulfurization tower installations and the postponement of the IMO's net - zero framework. In the power generation field, high - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage in calorific value cost, but its demand is affected by natural gas supply and climate [71]. - The refining demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in China and India has declined in recent years. In 2026 Q1, the refining demand in these two countries may continue to be weak due to factors such as weakened refining profits and sanctions on Russian fuel oil [74]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil 3.4.1 Supply - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region has a diversified pattern with an increasing concentration. Regions with low elasticity such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Kuwait dominate, and their supply changes will have a significant impact on the market. In addition, regions with high elasticity such as the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and European arbitrage goods also need attention [95][96][98]. - In China, the production of low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the profit difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and refined oil. In 2026, if the cracking of refined oil at home and abroad does not significantly shrink or the cracking of low - sulfur fuel oil does not significantly strengthen, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain at a monthly average of about 1 million tons [99][101]. 3.4.2 Demand - The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil has been under pressure in the past, but there are some marginal changes. In the marine fuel field, the squeezing effect of high - sulfur fuel oil on low - sulfur fuel oil may have reached its limit. In the power generation field, low - sulfur fuel oil still has a certain rigid demand. The refining demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly affected by refining profits [117][118][123]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the change in the supply - demand balance of fuel oil may still come from the supply side. For high - sulfur fuel oil, attention should be paid to whether the supply decline in Russia and Latin America can be filled by the Middle East. For low - sulfur fuel oil, attention should be paid to the production and export volume of regions with large shares and low production elasticity, as well as the supply changes in regions with high elasticity [136]. 3.5.2 Investment Outlook - In 2026, the cracking and spread of fuel oil may continue to decline in Q1 due to the traditional off - season and high inventories. However, the Contango structure of the fuel oil market may provide better upward momentum for the near - month contracts in Q2, especially for high - sulfur fuel oil [137][138]. - The 20 - 100 US dollars/ton range of the high - low sulfur spread in 2025 can be used as a reference for trading in 2026. If overseas refineries resume production and China's refined oil production decreases in Q1, the high - low sulfur spread may decline [139].

Report Title - "Supply and Demand Improvement, First Decline then Rise - 2026 Annual Outlook for Bottle Chip Futures" [1] Report Core View - In terms of unilateral prices, bottle chips are expected to be weak first and then strong in H1 2026, and there may be a trend change in H2 or Q4 due to weakening cost - end. For structural opportunities, focus on long - spreads during the peak season in H1, and pay attention to the redistribution of profits after the cost weakens in H2. When evaluating the spread between staple fiber and bottle chips, avoid inertial thinking and make separate assessments, and only trade the spread when the supply - side rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers [2][77] 1. 2025 Bottle Chip Futures Trend Review 1.1 Bottle Chip Spot and Futures Price Trend Review - In 2025, bottle chip futures prices were highly correlated with raw material PTA and staple fiber. The main driving factors included Sino - US trade war, geopolitical issues affecting crude oil prices, "anti - involution" expectations and their falsification, and joint production cuts by bottle chip factories. After industry - self - discipline production cuts in July, the processing fee increased compared to the previous year [5] - In different stages, the price was affected by factors such as supply - side concerns, demand - side seasonality, US tariff policies, and geopolitical events. The price showed fluctuations including declines, rebounds, and sideways movements [7] 1.2 Bottle Chip Volatility Performance Review - In H1 2025, bottle chip volatility increased significantly compared to the previous year, mainly due to the repeated US tariffs. In H2, the volatility narrowed, mainly because of increased supply elasticity and compressed profits caused by large - scale expansions in the middle and downstream of the industrial chain, and the stable production after the joint production cuts by leading factories from July [12] 2. Cost - end Operation Logic and View Summary 2.1 Naphtha: Transition from Shortage to Tight Balance - In 2026, naphtha supply will show a pattern of low in H1 and high in H2. The global naphtha supply is expected to have no growth in H1, and may increase in H2 with new refining capacity. The supply growth rate is expected to be less than 1.2%. In H1, the supply - demand balance in Asia will show a slight de - stocking trend, but it is defined as a tight balance and may change due to downstream negative feedback. In H2, factors such as the lightening of ethylene cracking raw materials in Asia may lead to an oversupply [15] 2.2 PX, PTA: Focus on Supply Fluctuations, PX is Relatively Strong - The unilateral prices of PX and PTA will be weak in H1 and strong in H2. It is recommended to go long on PXN at low prices, short the PTA - PX spread, and conduct long - spreads on basis and calendar spreads. In 2026, with a loose monetary and fiscal policy, polyester production is expected to grow by 4% - 6%. In H1, there are maintenance plans for three major private refineries, and the PX supply will tighten during the second - quarter gasoline - blending peak season. Seasonal potential negative factors include poor post - Spring Festival clothing and export orders and unexpected inventory accumulation. In H2, prices may rebound due to demand recovery [16] 2.3 MEG: Over - capacity, Focus on Unplanned Production Cuts and Cost Bottom - building - Ethylene glycol has over - capacity, and unplanned production cuts are needed to reverse the trend of significant inventory increase. Based on a 4% polyester growth rate in 2026, the annual consumption of ethylene glycol is estimated to be 29.5 million tons. The domestic production capacity of ethylene glycol will gradually increase to 32.5 million tons, and the domestic production device operating rate should not exceed 73%. The operating status of marginal coal - based devices is worthy of attention. If large - scale and long - term production cuts of coal - based ethylene glycol devices are observed, it may indicate the bottom of ethylene glycol. After the end of supply - guarantee, attention should be paid to whether coal prices have new trend - changing impacts on the ethylene glycol cost line [18][19][20] 3. 2026 Bottle Chip Operation Logic 3.1 Supply - side: Reduced Supply Pressure and Increased Operating Rate 3.1.1 Fewer New Devices - In 2026, there are few plans for new domestic bottle chip devices. The total new capacity is 700,000 tons, with a growth rate of + 3.2%, significantly lower than this year and the past three years. It is also a low - investment year globally for bottle chips. The supply - side pressure is expected to gradually reduce, and the central operating rate of factories is expected to increase [21] 3.1.2 Focus on the Anti - involution Path of the Cost - end - Pay attention to the continuation of industry self - discipline and anti - involution, especially in the cost link. In 2026, "comprehensively rectify 'involution - style' competition" was included in the 14th Five - Year Plan. The impact of anti - involution on the polyester supply - side needs continuous attention. In terms of specific anti - involution paths, focus on the possibility of updating energy - consumption standards and eliminating old or small - scale upstream devices. The impact of anti - involution in the refining and PTA links on the bottle chip link should be noted, especially the actions of leading state - owned enterprises. In the PTA link, the operating rate may fluctuate more due to increased operating competition [26] 3.1.3 Delivery: Reduced Warehouse - receipt Pressure after Spring Festival, Focus on Spot Liquidity during Peak Season - The warehouse - receipt pressure of the 2601 contract is acceptable, but there is significant inventory - accumulation pressure from the end of the 01 contract delivery to before the Spring Festival. If the joint production cuts by factories end before the Spring Festival, the pre - holiday inventory - accumulation pressure will be relatively large. The long - term contract volume will decrease, and the spot liquidity during the peak season will be tested. The current delivery buyers have digestion pressure on the delivery products and face additional costs [29][31][32] 3.2 Demand - side: Neutral Domestic Demand and Steady Export Growth 3.2.1 The Crowding - out Effect is Over, Beverage Demand Improves Moderately, but Competition Remains Fierce - In 2025, the beverage industry was affected by the crowding - out effect of optional consumption on essential consumption in H1. By the end of the year, this effect was basically over. In 2026, the government subsidy may continue but with a weaker intensity. The expansion of soft - drink production capacity is slowing down, and some leading companies still maintain high investment. The tea - beverage industry has entered a stage of stable growth, and the competition in the bottled - water market continues. The sports - drink category has a leading growth rate, and the sales of bottled water are relatively stable. The ready - to - drink beverage industry is facing a transformation from high - speed growth to stock competition. The ready - to - drink beverage market may see the elimination of marginal SKUs and an increase in the market share of leading enterprises. The ready - to - drink products and bottled beverages are facing cross - competition from ready - made drinks [33][39][45] 3.2.2 Edible Oil Demand is Still Affected by the Food Service Industry, with No Significant Increment - In 2025, the edible oil industry maintained steady growth, but the profits of the food service industry were still weak. The demand for bottle chips from the edible oil industry is expected to remain stable, waiting for the overall recovery of consumer spending to drive the food service industry [47] 3.2.3 The Continuation of the Food Delivery War and New - area Demand Support the Demand for Sheet Materials - The food delivery war in 2025 drove the demand for sheet materials, but the peak has passed. In 2026, food delivery subsidies are expected to continue in a phased and refined way. The high cost - effectiveness of bottle chips promotes the development of new demand in different fields, such as high - end applications in high - frequency circuit boards and lithium - battery separators [55][59] 3.2.4 Export: Expected Decline in Growth Rate, but Overall Steady Growth - In 2025, bottle chip exports were not negatively affected by the trade war, with concentrated stockpiling in H1, a decline in summer due to rising freight rates, and a downward - trending growth rate in H2. In 2026, factors such as high export bases and compressed export profits may lead to a decline in the growth rate, with an expected annual growth rate of about 10% [65][67] 3.3 Bottle Chip Supply - demand Fundamental Summary - In monthly supply - demand terms, the inventory - accumulation pressure during the peak season in 2026 will be reduced. Assuming a 4% growth in domestic demand, a 10% growth in exports during the peak season, and the same situation of domestic - to - export conversion as this year, the monthly production - sales balanced operating rate is about 84% - 85%, 3 - 4 percentage points higher than this year without inventory accumulation. In different operating - rate scenarios, the peak - season inventory - accumulation or de - stocking situation varies. Overall, the peak - season inventory - accumulation pressure will be reduced, and in the off - season, the inventory and operating - rate game of factories still needs to be considered [75] 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In terms of unilateral prices, bottle chips will be weak first and then strong in H1 2026, and there may be a trend change in H2 or Q4 due to weakening cost - end. The key inflection points are the negative feedback of high polyester inventory after the Spring Festival in H1 and the weakening cost due to the commissioning of new PX devices in H2. In 2026, the new capacity of bottle chips is small, and the most significant capacity increment in H1 comes from the Fuhai device commissioned at the end of 2025, which supports the increase in the operating rate. After the inventory risk is released in H1, it is beneficial for long - spreads. In H2, focus on the price weakening and profit redistribution caused by the collapse of cost support after the new PX capacity is commissioned in Q4 [77] - Regarding the spread between staple fiber and bottle chips, although the seasonal demand mismatch driving force still exists in 2026, due to the expected large - scale commissioning of staple fiber devices in H2, the spread market may deviate from the seasonal demand drive. It is recommended to evaluate them separately and trade the spread when the supply - side rhythm coincides with seasonal drivers [78]