Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered this week, while the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday. The yield curve flattened. - The tone of monetary policy remains unchanged after the Central Economic Work Conference. It will still support the real economy and consumption and boost inflation in the future, possibly using both structural and aggregate tools. Although there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, their impact on the bond market may be limited. - In the medium term, due to the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term capital inflows, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is that the market will fluctuate with a slightly bearish trend [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered, and the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday, and the yield curve flattened. - The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. Traditional growth - stabilizing areas released many growth - stabilizing signals, exceeding market expectations. It mentioned "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and required "maintaining ample liquidity", which is positive for macro - assets in terms of liquidity. - Fiscal policy requires "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure". It is expected that the deficit ratio will remain stable next year, and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately, which will positively guide the market's total demand expectations. - The long - end of the treasury bond futures market led the rise, and the short - end followed. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, indicating the value of the ultra - long end. The logic of asset shortage, the easing of deflation pressure, and the loose tone of monetary policy provide medium - and long - term bottom support for the bond market, but attention should be paid to the impact of equity market fluctuations and policy implementation rhythm on the long - end [4][6]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content is provided in the given text, only a figure title is mentioned [8]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change of net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.67%; foreign capital decreased by 0.61%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.44%. - In terms of the weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.91%; foreign capital increased by 1.9%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 1.11% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, the futures market has been weakly volatile, and port inventories have decreased [4][19] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, with a price difference of 10 yuan/m³ between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of December 7, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 7 of which were bound for the Chinese mainland and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in December and 0 in January. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.28 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.38 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.36 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.45 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.24 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventories, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.3528 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 million cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 0.4115 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0409 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 0.2247 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0494 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 0.1237 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0365 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1127 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.1428 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trend - As of December 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 749 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The futures market continued to be weakly volatile this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 16 yuan/m³, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 28.5 yuan/m³, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 12.5 yuan/m³ [19] Other - As of the week of December 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2294.00 points, a decrease of 433 points (-15.9%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 814 points, a decrease of 3.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.46 points, an increase of 7.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.059, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.6% to 1.722 [6][52]

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月14日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：仍是下行趋势，考验 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 支撑 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：仍是下行趋势，考验支撑 ...

2025 年 12月 14 日 音环保消息发酵。 坝片常面高位震荡 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面先跌后涨,现货价格下跌;多晶硅盘面低开高走,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面先跌后涨,整体重心下移,或与资金配置"多多晶硅、空工业硅"策 略有关，周五收于 8435 元/吨。现货市场价格下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8750 元/吨（环比-150），内 蒙 99 硅报价 8850元/吨(环比-200)。 多晶硅运行情况:本周多晶硅盘面重心抬升，周中市场预期已久的平台公司落地，市场情绪重新得到提 振，盘面重心抬升。周五盘面收于,57190元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺。 供需基本面:工业硅本周行业库存累库;多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端,周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计,本周新疆及内蒙地区开工增加,整体周产小幅 环增。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨, 枯 水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看,12月份上游西南减产幅度增加,虽新疆部分工厂有 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：年末宏观扰动增多，22000关口再度回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 ◆ 中期来看，我们依然持有对铝价趋势向上的观点，今年4季度迄今市场对于铝金属颇具想象力的定价逻辑，在2026年仍将得以延续。 2026年度平衡上看，我们目前预估： ◆ 基准情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.1%，净进口240万吨估算，预计全年约短缺12.4万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近103.7万吨，相较今年年底的累库幅度最高预计达到47万吨，略高于去年同期39.1万吨，累库压力应比较可控。 ◆ 乐观情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.6%，净进口250万吨估算，预计全年约短缺25.8万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近97.7万吨，相较今年 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场个别松动。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4735元/吨，环比下跌0.06%，与上周趋势相比由 涨转跌；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4422元/吨，环比上涨0.07%，涨幅环比持平。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，规模纸企稳 价出货为主，部分接单尚可，但整体库存压力仍存；第二，年末经销商备库偏理性，社会面订单暂无明显改善，高白双胶纸部分成交存在商 谈空间；第三，出版订单陆续开始提货，本白双胶纸出货存在向好预期，价格多数稳定；第四，上游木浆价 ...

动力煤产业链周度报告 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 动力煤供应——国内供应环比扩张，即将到矿端季节性减产期 ◼ 截至12月12日，本周国内462家样本矿山动力煤产量约为3899.7万吨，环比增加1.07% ，产能利用率变动环比增加。 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 万吨 动力煤：462家样本矿山：产量（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 动力煤样本矿山周度产量 动力煤样本矿山周度产能利用率 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 万吨 动力煤：462家样本矿山：产能利用率（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 01 CONTENTS 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：下游逐渐负反馈，加工费压缩 供应 工厂开工维持高位，平均开工95.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开机率回落至96.8%（恒逸高新25万吨检修至月底） 需求 12月后，内需终端订单加速走弱，纱线、织造、坯布继续累库，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假，因而纱线、织造环节 开工部分加速下行，实物库存偏高但距离极限仍有距离，原料备库中性偏低，后续下游预计保持刚需补库节奏，等待低位。短纤小幅去库， 1.4D权益库存在3.9 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年12月14日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：弱势仍在，底部初现 | 本周燃料油市场仍然偏弱，价格延续小幅下跌趋势。高硫方面，中东出口量再次增长，同时拉美方向高硫出口也有回升迹象，但新加坡、马 | 观点 | 来西亚发货数量维持低位，整个新加坡市场现货库存仍在累积，导致现货价格维持弱势。但同时，从船期数据来看，俄罗斯的出口已经开始 持续下滑，浮仓数量继续上升，意味着后续俄罗斯的供应可能将无法向此前一样流入现货市场，这将对高硫价格形成支撑。低硫方面，巴西 炼厂即将在本月逐步恢复开工，从而对市场产生压力，同时Dangote炼厂的FCC装置检修将持续至1月，非洲方向的低硫现货也将继续流向亚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 太。但最新消息显示，Al-Zour炼 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market showed a volatile rebound this week. In the short - term, it is expected to continue the volatile rebound trend, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure range of 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 inter - period positive spread has peaked, and it is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term. The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - The report presents historical data charts of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][16]. 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, China added multiple methanol production facilities, with a total capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8300000 tons in 2025. Overseas, there were also new production plans, with a total international capacity expansion of 3550000 tons in 2024 and 1650000 tons in 2025 [24]. - **Maintenance**: Multiple enterprises carried out maintenance from October to November 2025, resulting in different levels of production losses [27]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of 20251205 - 1211, China's methanol production was 2039705 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2055400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.50% [4]. - **Production by Process**: The report shows historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, natural gas) in China from 2018 to 2025 [30]. - **Capacity Utilization by Region**: It presents historical capacity utilization data of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, Central) in China from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Import - related**: It shows historical data of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 to 2025 [37]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows historical data of methanol production costs and profits of different production methods (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [42]. 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows historical capacity utilization data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 to 2025 [52]. - **Downstream Profit**: It shows historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [59]. - **Procurement Volume**: It shows historical procurement volume data of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: It shows historical inventory data of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [77]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows historical data of methanol factory inventories in China, East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 to 2025 [82]. - **Port Inventory**: It shows historical data of methanol port inventories in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2025 [88].