This Week's Key Focus - On August 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations [2][3] - On August 27, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July [2][10] - On August 28, the US Department of Commerce will announce the revised value of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2025 [2][15] - On August 29, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for July [2][19] - On August 31, China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August [2][22] - From August 31 to September 1, the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin [2][23] This Week's Hotspot Preview August 25 - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan, a sixth consecutive month of increased renewal [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [4] - The US will announce July new home sales. If the annualized total is slightly lower than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but mildly help the rise of gold and silver futures [5] August 26 - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences, one on the achievements of high - quality energy development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and the other on the 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair [7] - The US will announce the preliminary value of July durable goods orders. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [8] - The US will announce the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [9] August 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July. From January to June, the year - on - year profit decreased by 1.8%, and in June, it decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [10] - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference [11] - Germany will announce the September Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, with an expected value of - 22 and a previous value of - 21.5 [12] - The Eurozone will announce the August economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index. If both are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly help the prices of related industrial product futures rise [13] - EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 22. If the inventory continues to decline, it will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] August 28 - The US will announce the revised value of the second - quarter GDP for 2025, with an expected annualized quarterly rate of 3.0% [15] - The US will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of commodity futures except for gold and silver futures but mildly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [16] - The US will announce the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index for July. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [17] August 29 - The US will announce personal spending and personal income for July. If the monthly rates are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures but mildly help the rise of industrial product futures except for gold and silver futures [18] - The US will announce the PCE price index for July, with an expected annual rate of 2.6% and an expected core annual rate of 2.9% [19] - The US will announce the August Chicago PMI. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will help the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [20] August 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August. If both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are slightly lower than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of stock index futures and commodity futures prices [22] - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin, and President Xi Jinping will participate in relevant activities and deliver a keynote speech [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, it predicts the price trends of major futures contracts on August 25, 2025, and also analyzes the market conditions on August 22, 2025, along with the expected trends for the month of August 2025 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast for August 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4500 and 4550 points, and support levels at 4394 and 4360 points [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and silver futures contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts, such as CU2510, AL2510, etc., are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, while fuel oil futures contract FU2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, while Y2601 is likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.2 Market Conditions on August 22, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 22, major stock index futures contracts, such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and showed strong upward momentum. The A - share market also performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3825.76 points [19][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 22, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 107.660 yuan, down 0.18% [46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, closing at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.36%. Silver futures contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.36% [52][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts showed different degrees of upward or downward fluctuations. For example, copper futures contract CU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [63]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 493.6 yuan/barrel, up 1.42%. Fuel oil futures contract FU2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated upward, and closed at 2779 yuan/ton, up 2.47% [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward, while Y2601 opened flat, fluctuated upward, and closed at 8458 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [138][141]. 3.3 Expected Trends for August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF and IH being likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, while IC and IM are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts are expected to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [46][50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures are likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, and silver futures are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [52][58]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts are expected to have a wide - range or strong - wide - range fluctuation [63][69]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Different agricultural product futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as M2601 being likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and Y2601 being likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.4 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025 [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan this month [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued a document to regulate the rare - earth industry [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Price Behaviors" [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Powell signaled dovishness at the JH meeting [2][4] - Silver: Poised to reach previous highs [2][5] - Copper: Prices rose as the US dollar declined [2][10] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supported prices [2][16] - Tin: Trading within a range [2][18] - Aluminum: Inventory accumulation slowed [2][23] - Alumina: Prices edged up sideways [2][23] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23] - Nickel: Trading within a narrow range [2][26] - Stainless steel: Short - term trading at low levels [2][26] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Comex gold 2510 and London gold spot rose by 1.00% and 0.95% respectively. The trading volume of Comex gold 2510 increased by 59,697, and the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 [5]. - **Macro and industry news**: Powell signaled dovishness, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door to interest rate cuts. He also announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework [5]. - **Trend strength**: Gold trend strength is 1 [8]. Silver - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Comex silver 2510 and London silver spot rose by 2.07% and 1.85% respectively. The trading volume of Comex silver 2510 increased by 10,840 [5]. - **Trend strength**: Silver trend strength is 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai copper main contract and LME copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.18% and 0.77% respectively. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,009 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: Powell announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework. Canada will cancel multiple retaliatory tariffs against the US starting in September. Codelco restarted the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine and lowered its copper output target for this year [10][12]. - **Trend strength**: Copper trend strength is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose by 0.16% and 1.39% respectively. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 503 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons [13]. - **News**: Powell signaled dovishness and announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework [14]. - **Trend strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0 [15]. Lead - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3M electronic disk rose by 0.21% and 1.12% respectively. The Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 476 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 6,550 tons [16]. - **News**: Powell announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework. Canada will cancel multiple retaliatory tariffs against the US starting in September [16]. - **Trend strength**: Lead trend strength is 0 [16]. Tin - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract fell by 0.21%, while the LME tin 3M electronic disk rose by 1.11%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 205 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Powell signaled dovishness. China's State Council executive meeting studied measures to release sports consumption potential. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to guide the construction of computing power facilities [20]. - **Trend strength**: Tin trend strength is 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME aluminum 3M rose. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons. The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract rose by 14 [23]. - **Comprehensive news**: A new Fed journalist said Powell signaled a cautious interest rate cut [25]. - **Trend strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 20,539 [26]. - **Macro and industry news**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage. There were environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27]. - **Trend strength**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0 [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: After the JH meeting, Fed Chair Powell signaled dovishness. The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][5]. - Silver: Silver is approaching its previous high. The trend strength of silver is 1, also indicating a neutral outlook [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: Comex gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20, and London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82. Comex silver 2510 increased 2.07% to 39.390, and London silver spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For example, the trading volume of Comex gold 2510 increased by 59,697 to 179,273, and its open interest decreased by 2,083 to 323,440 [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF held 956.77, with no change from the previous day. The SLV silver ETF (as of the day before yesterday) held 15,288.82, an increase of 11 [2]. - **Inventory**: Comex gold inventory (as of the day before yesterday) increased by 9,952 to 38,573,764 (in troy ounces), while Comex silver inventory (as of the day before yesterday) remained unchanged at 508,499,193 (in troy ounces) [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between gold T+D and London gold increased by 386.39 to 387.75. The spread between silver T+D and London silver increased by 5,051 to 4,262 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) rose 0.13% to 7.19 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Fed Chair Powell signaled dovishness, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door for rate cuts [2]. - China's State Council heard reports on large - scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade - in policies and studied releasing sports consumption potential [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities and accelerate the breakthrough of key core technologies such as GPU chips. China's intelligent computing power scale will grow by over 40% this year [6]. - A draft rule on internet platform pricing aims to prevent disorderly competition [6]. - The Hang Seng Index will include Pop Mart, JD Logistics, and China Telecom [6]. - NVIDIA will announce "black technology" for humanoid robots on Monday, launch Spectrum - XGS Ethernet, and Huang Renxun wants to sell new special - purpose chips to China [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has also rebounded significantly. The market has stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded due to various unconfirmed information on supply - side policies. However, in the long - term, as maintenance devices resume production and new supply - side production capacity expands, supply pressure will increase. Considering the uncertainty of the cost side and policy directions, the short - term market is slightly stronger, but there is still significant long - term pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 7038, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 169,664, and the open interest increased by 12,407. The 01 - contract basis was - 158, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 21 [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price ranged from 6900 to 7030 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was from 6880 to 7020 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was from 6850 to 7080 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - PP futures fluctuated weakly, providing limited guidance to the spot market. Most producer prices remained stable. Traders adjusted their offers slightly based on inventory and costs. As the weekend approached, downstream factories were mostly on the sidelines, and overall market trading was average [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - Short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has rebounded. The market has rebounded due to unconfirmed supply - side policy information. In the future, as maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity is added, supply pressure will increase. There is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and policies aim to counter deflation and excessive competition. The short - term market is slightly stronger, but long - term pressure remains high [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 25 日 铝：累库放缓 氧化铝：横盘小涨 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20630 | 40 | -140 | 155 | 1120 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20755 | ー | ー | l | । | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2622 | 29 | 19 | 47 | 214 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 134574 | 10051 | 38224 | 61325 | -132989 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 237287 | 3385 | 43480 | 42829 | 44582 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Different commodities are expected to have different trends such as range - bound trading, upward trends, or downward trends [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The JH meeting saw Powell adopt a dovish stance. Gold prices showed certain movements, with Comex gold 2510 rising 1.00% to 3417.20. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is expected to reach the previous high. Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, copper prices rose. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.18% to 78,650, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.16% to 22275, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][14][17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.21% to 16780, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][20][24]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation has slowed down. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20630, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: It is in narrow - range bound trading. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,610, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in short - term low - level range - bound trading. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,750, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related**: No direct crude oil analysis, but related products are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend is obvious, and the short - term strength will continue [2][55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market has a slight rebound [2][55]. - **LPG**: Import costs provide support, but the supply - demand situation lacks obvious improvement [2][51]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in range - bound trading, and the strategy is to go long on dips. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **PTA and PX**: They are both in an upward - trending state and suitable for positive spreads. PX rose 0.11% to 6966, and PTA rose 0.16% to 4868 [2][59]. - **MEG**: It is in an upward - trending state, rising 0.02% to 4474 [2][59]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The negative impact of the US soybean oil SRE has been digested, and international oil prices have risen [2][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in high - level range - bound trading [2][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans rose slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][65]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors, and the trend intensity is 2 [2][41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are both in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][52][54]. - **Log**: It is in repeated fluctuations, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][55][58].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for index futures is "strong - biased operation" [3] Core Viewpoints - On August 22, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 2.72%, IH rose 2.8%, IC rose 2.5%, and IM rose 2.25%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded, showing an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2] Summary by Content 1. Index Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of major stock indices such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose, with increases of 2.10%, 2.32%, 1.77%, and 1.51% respectively. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase, with IF2509 rising 2.72%, IH2509 rising 2.80%, IC2509 rising 2.50%, and IM2509 rising 2.25% [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: IF's total trading volume increased by 19,002 lots, IH's by 13,850 lots, IC's by 7,116 lots, and IM's decreased by 13,374 lots. IF's total positions increased by 18,890 lots, IH's by 10,155 lots, IC's by 4,551 lots, and IM's by 694 lots [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each index futures contract varies. For example, the basis of IF2509 is 16, and that of IH2509 is 13.39 [1] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts are different. For example, in the IF2509 contract, the long - position increase is 6,722, and the short - position increase is 9,538 [5] 3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a "strong - biased" state [6] - **Important Drivers**: The National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the Cyberspace Administration of China solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Pricing Behavior (Draft for Comment)". Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting led traders to increase bets on a Fed rate cut in September. The central bank carried out a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month, and also carried out a 300 - billion - yuan net investment in outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of 600 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity in August. The State Council executive meeting studied policies to release sports consumption potential and promote the high - quality development of the sports industry, and reviewed and approved the "Overall Plan for the 'Three - North' Shelter Forest Program" [6][7] 4. A - share Market Performance - The A - share market opened higher and continued to rise unilaterally. The Shanghai Composite Index easily exceeded 3,800 points, and the STAR 50 soared 8%. The brokerage sector and the TMT sector were strong, and some stocks such as Cambricon and Hygon Information had a 20% daily limit. The overall market had a mixed rise and fall, with micro - cap stocks falling against the trend. The total trading volume of A - shares for the day was 2.58 trillion yuan [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Para-xylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber (short-term), LLDPE, caustic soda, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][8][9][10][18][36][45][81] - **Neutral Outlook**: Rubber, asphalt, PP, pulp, glass, methanol, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC [2][12][18][19][27][40][49][54][58][64][66][69][74][78] - **Negative Outlook**: Urea, container shipping index (European line) [2][63][83] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures, presenting trends, strengths, and investment suggestions for each commodity. Market conditions are influenced by factors such as supply-demand dynamics, cost changes, and macroeconomic policies [2][8][9][10]. - Short-term trends are affected by macro sentiment, policy expectations, and seasonal factors, while long-term trends depend on fundamental supply and demand [18][58][64]. Summary by Commodity Para-xylene, PTA, MEG - **Para-xylene**: Trend is strong, with positive spreads. Suggested to buy on dips and focus on 11-1 positive spread positions. PX-MX spread expansion may boost supply, and polyester demand recovery supports prices [8]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is strong. Suggested to buy on dips, focus on basis and monthly spread positive spreads, and go long PTA and short PX (11 contract). Supply decreased this week, and demand is seasonally improving [9]. - **MEG**: Short-term trend is strong, but there is pressure above 4600. Suggested to focus on 1-5 reverse spread. Domestic device maintenance is over, and imports are low, but there is supply pressure in October [10]. Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating. July tire exports reached a new high, but August exports to the EU may decline [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Short-term is strong, medium-term is range-bound. Short-term macro sentiment is positive, and long-term "anti-involution" policies support valuations [16][18]. Asphalt - **Trend**: Oil prices are slightly strong, and cracking spreads are falling. September domestic asphalt production is expected to increase, but recent shipments and capacity utilization have decreased [19][33]. LLDPE - **Trend**: Short-term is strongly oscillating. Cost rebounds, demand improves, and inventory is low. September Zhenhai Refining and Chemical maintenance may relieve supply pressure [35][36]. PP - **Trend**: Short-term rebound, medium-term oscillating. Short-term demand improves, and cost rebounds, but long-term supply pressure increases [39][40]. Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Bullish. Demand is expanding, especially from alumina. Supply may be limited by the weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries [45]. Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating. Supply is abundant, cost support is weak, and demand is sluggish [49][50][52]. Glass - **Trend**: Original sheet prices are stable. Market trading is average, and downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand [54]. Methanol - **Trend**: Short-term is oscillating with support, medium-term is range-bound. Macro sentiment is positive, but port inventory is high [56][58]. Urea - **Trend**: Weak. Inventory is increasing, and short-term prices are falling. Medium-term prices may fluctuate due to macro sentiment and policy expectations [62][63][64]. Styrene - **Trend**: Short-term is strong, medium-term is bearish. Downstream inventory is at a medium-high level, and the short-term market is oscillating [65][66]. Soda Ash - **Trend**: Spot market is stable. Supply is decreasing, and demand is average. The market is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short term [69]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Import cost provides support, but supply-demand improvement is limited [71]. - **Propylene**: Supply-demand is in tight balance, and prices are consolidating strongly [71]. PVC - **Trend**: Short-term is oscillating, long-term is under pressure. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [78]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Uptrend is obvious, and short-term strength will continue [81]. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively weaker than high-sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Weakly oscillating. Freight rates are declining, and market sentiment is cautious [83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish trend, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [1][3] - PTA: Bullish trend, recommend long on dips, basis and calendar spread long positions, and long PTA short PX (11 contract) [1][4] - MEG: Bullish trend in the short term, but faces significant resistance above 4600, recommend 1-5 reverse calendar spread [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The PX-MX spread has further widened, potentially boosting short - term PX supply. The polyester terminal is strengthening, and PX supply - demand is tight, leading to a positive feedback pattern [1][2][3] - PTA is in a de - stocking pattern in August. Demand is seasonally improving, and the PTA basis and calendar spread have strengthened [4] - Domestic MEG plants' maintenance is mostly over, with increased operating loads. Although port inventory is decreasing, the 01 contract still faces supply increase pressure in October [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, and SC futures prices rose slightly yesterday, with PX up 0.11%, PTA up 0.16%, and SC up 0.55%. PF futures price remained unchanged, and MEG rose 0.02% [1] - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 calendar spreads decreased, while MEG9 - 1 remained unchanged [1] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China, PTA East China, and Dated Brent spot prices rose, while MEG spot and MOPJ naphtha prices fell [1] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha, PTA, and short - fiber processing margins increased, while bottle - chip processing margin decreased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [1] Market Dynamics - On August 22, the PX - MX spread in Asia reached a more than five - year high of $166.83/ton [2] - In July, China's PX imports increased by about 2.18% month - on - month to 782,045 tons. Imports from Singapore soared 69% to 25,032 tons, and those from South Korea increased slightly by 0.32% to 359,509 tons. Imports from Brunei increased by 5% to 107,761 tons, while imports from Unv1 decreased by 31.59% to 77,983 tons, and those from Japan decreased by 11.75% to 111,767 tons [2][3] - On August 22, there were bids, offers, and 6 transactions for PX cargoes to be delivered in October and November in the Asian PX Platts closing market assessment [3] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG all have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a bullish - biased trend [3] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Bullish trend, long on dips, focus on the 11 - 1 calendar spread. PX followed PTA's rise due to PTA plant outages, and the PX - MX spread is widening. The polyester peak season is coming, and raw material price - rising ability is strong [3] - **PTA**: Bullish price, long on dips. Basis and calendar spread long positions. Long PTA short PX (11 contract). PTA plant operating rates decreased this week, and it entered a de - stocking pattern in August. Demand is seasonally improving [4] - **MEG**: Bullish in the short term but faces resistance above 4600. Domestic plants' operating loads have increased, port inventory is decreasing, but the 01 contract faces supply increase pressure in October. Recommend 1 - 5 reverse calendar spread [5]