Report Overview - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: There is a transformation in structural surplus, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthened [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With continuous inventory reduction and uncertain resumption of production of large factories, it will fluctuate at a high level [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in Xinjiang [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 55 yuan. The import profit of nickel plate was - 973 yuan, up 425 yuan from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 96,980 yuan, up 2,900 yuan from the previous day. The spot - 2601 was - 3,480 yuan, up - 2,100 yuan from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,559 yuan/ton, up 932 yuan/ton from the previous working day. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, an increase of 59 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from last week [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day; the PS2605 closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 56.1 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to a week ago [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Central Economic Work Conference determined the key tasks for next year's economic work, including promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening the reform of state - owned enterprises [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, and others, offering trading strategies and trend predictions based on market fundamentals and news [2][12][15]. - It also covers industry news and market dynamics, such as supply and demand changes, inventory levels, and price movements, to help investors make informed decisions [7][16][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight, with a high - level consolidation trend. It is recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions. The overall supply - demand is tight, and it may be strong before the holiday. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [2][12]. - **PTA**: High - level consolidation, with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions in the 05 contract and conduct a 5 - 9 positive spread operation. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays [2][13]. - **MEG**: The trend is weak. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to range between 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern will be under pressure in the next 2 - 3 months [2][14]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Consolidating. The domestic production area's stop - cutting sentiment has been digested, while overseas production areas are entering the peak season. The supply increase expectation suppresses the spot market, and the price shows a trend of first falling and then rising [15][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Ranging. The short - term is expected to oscillate within the fundamental valuation range, with high supply pressure suppressing the price and some marginal improvements providing support [18][20][21]. Asphalt - The crude oil is weakly fluctuating, and asphalt is trading at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has remained stable. The overall trend is neutral [22][29][32]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Unilateral decline, and the basis has weakened again. The raw material end is oscillating, the downstream demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the medium term [35][36]. - **PP**: Under upstream selling pressure, the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices [38][39]. Other Commodities - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak. The cost has some support, but the rebound is difficult without production cuts [41][43]. - **Pulp**: Wide - range consolidation. The futures market is weak, and the spot market shows differentiation. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [46][49]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The float glass price is mostly stable with minor fluctuations, the demand is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease [51][52]. - **Methanol**: Under pressure. The port inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. The high - supply pressure in the 01 contract is the main contradiction [55][58]. - **Urea**: Ranging. The enterprise inventory has decreased, the demand has improved, and the price is supported. The upper pressure level is around 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [60][62][64]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market is in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the styrene supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to focus on EB profit expansion and PX - BZ [65][66]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The enterprise operation is stable, the output is high, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is stable [69][70]. - **LPG**: Suppressed by warehouse receipts, the price has dropped significantly. The 1 - month CP paper price has increased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [73][74][79]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the main contract follows the cost down. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the market is under pressure [74]. - **PVC**: The trend remains weak. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The supply may decrease in the maintenance season next year [82]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Both are weak. The night - session of low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [84]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is an oscillating market. The 2602 contract may see a price increase in January, but the high price is difficult to sustain. The 2604 contract is suitable for short - selling on rallies [86][98]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Both face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long TA and short PF/PR positions. The staple fiber futures have risen and then fallen, and the bottle chip factory price is mostly stable [100][101]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price is stable, the demand is weak, and the cost - profit situation is not good [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation. The port inventory has increased, the downstream demand is weak in December and may improve in January, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton [108][109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient drive from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: It will fluctuate within a range [2]. - Cotton: It will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [2]. - Eggs: It will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Live pigs: The price increase due to cooling is less than expected, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,656 yuan/ton with a 1.33% increase, and (night session) was 8,546 yuan/ton with a -1.27% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,268 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and (night session) was 8,000 yuan/ton with a -3.24% decrease [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From December 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, and exports are expected to increase by 2.0% month - on - month [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,750 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 2,770 yuan/ton with a +0.58% increase; DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,173 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 4,148 yuan/ton with a -0.46% decrease [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 11, CBOT soybeans rose due to sales to China and active technical buying. As of November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 695,598 tons [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1; soybean trend intensity is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,243 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and (night session) was 2,239 yuan/ton with a -0.18% decrease; C2603's closing price (day session) was 2,236 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and (night session) was 2,229 yuan/ton with a -0.31% decrease [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and container price increased slightly [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.91 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,245 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 49.8% year - on - year, and in Brazil in the second half of November, it increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and (night session) was 13,825 yuan/ton with a -0.25% decrease; CY2603's closing price (day session) was 20,005 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and (night session) was 19,985 yuan/ton with a -0.10% decrease [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading slightly recovered, cotton yarn prices were stable, and downstream orders were mainly short and small. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2601's closing price was 3,144 yuan/500 kg with a -0.03% decrease, and Egg 2602's closing price was 2,968 yuan/500 kg with a -0.44% decrease [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,430 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,210 yuan/ton. The futures prices of live pigs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,440 yuan/ton, 11,220 yuan/ton, and 11,820 yuan/ton respectively [30]. - **Market Information**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, and Yangxiang registered warehouse receipts from December 4 - 11 [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is -1 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a -0.17% decrease, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,050 yuan/ton with a -0.45% decrease [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang and Kaifeng's peanut prices were stable with low supply and demand. In Jilin and Liaoning, 308 peanut prices were stable with low supply. In Shandong, prices were stable with quality - based transactions [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, lithium carbonate, coking coal, soda ash, and methanol futures are likely to have a relatively strong oscillation; pulp futures are likely to oscillate with a relatively strong trend; 30 - year treasury bond and polysilicon futures are likely to have a wide - range oscillation; tin and fuel oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and soybean meal futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation; and glass futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 10, the main contracts of stock index futures showed different trends. On December 11, they are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For the whole of December 2025, they are expected to have a relatively strong wide - range oscillation. For example, IF2512 had a resistance of 4590 and 4614 points and a support of 4555 and 4525 points on December 11 [13][14][15][17][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 10, the main contract T2603 rose slightly. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 108.12 and 108.20 yuan and a support of 107.92 and 107.74 yuan [34]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 10, the main contract TL2603 rebounded. On December 11, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation with a support of 112.3 and 112.0 yuan and a resistance of 113.1 and 113.6 yuan [37][38]. - **Precious Metal Futures** - **Gold Futures**: On December 10, the main contract AU2602 rebounded slightly. In December 2025, it is expected to have a relatively strong wide - range oscillation. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 961.0 and 963.3 yuan/gram and a support of 951.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram [41]. - **Silver Futures**: On December 10, the main contract AG2602 rose significantly. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate with a relatively strong trend and set a new high. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation and set a new high, with a resistance of 14419 and 14600 yuan/kg and a support of 14000 and 13892 yuan/kg [47]. - **Base Metal Futures** - **Copper Futures**: On December 10, the main contract CU2601 stopped falling and rebounded. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate with a relatively strong trend and set a new high. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 92500 and 93300 yuan/ton and a support of 91400 and 90700 yuan/ton [52]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On December 10, the main contract AL2602 stopped falling and rebounded. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate with a relatively strong trend. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 22090 and 22230 yuan/ton and a support of 21790 and 21750 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Alumina Futures**: On December 10, the main contract AO2601 fell weakly. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate weakly and set a new low. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 2525 and 2553 yuan/ton and a support of 2474 and 2460 yuan/ton [64]. - **Tin Futures**: On December 10, the main contract SN2601 rose strongly. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate with a relatively strong trend. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate weakly with a resistance of 322600 and 324200 yuan/ton and a support of 312300 and 310300 yuan/ton [68]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On December 10, the main contract FU2601 stopped falling and rebounded slightly. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate weakly with a resistance of 2427 and 2437 yuan/ton and a support of 2350 and 2330 yuan/ton [102]. - **Methanol Futures**: On December 10, the main contract MA601 fell. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 2089 and 2104 yuan/ton and a support of 2053 and 2038 yuan/ton [105]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On December 10, the main contract JM2605 fell. In December 2025, it is expected to have a relatively weak wide - range oscillation. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 1083 and 1110 yuan/ton and a support of 1050 and 1039 yuan/ton [90]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: On December 10, the main contract PS2605 fell slightly. On December 11, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation with a resistance of 56670 and 57350 yuan/ton and a support of 54020 and 52750 yuan/ton [71]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On December 10, the main contract LC2605 rose strongly. In December 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation with a resistance of 97300 and 98800 yuan/ton and a support of 95900 and 93500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Glass Futures**: On December 10, the main contract FG601 fell weakly. In December 2025, it is expected to have a relatively weak wide - range oscillation. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate with a resistance of 978 and 984 yuan/ton and a support of 950 and 930 yuan/ton [94]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On December 10, the main contract SA601 fell weakly. In December 2025, it is expected to have a relatively weak wide - range oscillation and set a new low. On December 11, it is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation and set a new low, with a resistance of 1115 and 1121 yuan/ton and a support of 1080 and 1060 yuan/ton [99]. - **Agricultural Futures** - **Soybean Meal Futures**: On December 10, the main contract M2605 fell slightly. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate weakly with a resistance of 2763 and 2770 yuan/ton and a support of 2738 and 2728 yuan/ton [107]. - **Pulp Futures**: On December 10, the main contract SP2605 fell slightly. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate with a relatively strong trend with a resistance of 5678 and a daily limit of 5696 yuan/ton and a support of 5444 and 5430 yuan/ton [109]. - **Building Materials Futures** - **Rebar Futures**: On December 10, the main contract RB2605 stopped falling and rebounded. In December 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate weakly with a resistance of 3123 and 3140 yuan/ton and a support of 3075 and 3066 yuan/ton [80]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 10, the main contract HC2605 stopped falling and rebounded. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate weakly with a resistance of 3282 and 3298 yuan/ton and a support of 3248 and 3238 yuan/ton [83]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On December 10, the main contract I2605 stopped falling and rebounded. In December 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. On December 11, it is expected to oscillate weakly with a resistance of 770 and 778 yuan/ton and a support of 761 and 758 yuan/ton [86]. Macro News and Trading Tips - There are reports that China is considering restricting the purchase of NVIDIA's advanced H200 chips [8]. - China's November CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, hitting the highest since March 2024; the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [8]. - The IMF believes that the Chinese economy shows significant resilience and is expected to grow by 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [8]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%, and launched a short - term treasury bond purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [9]. - The US government's November budget deficit decreased to $173 billion [11]. - The US third - quarter employment cost index increased by 3.5% year - on - year, hitting a four - year low [11]. - The ECB may raise its economic growth forecast, and the Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% [10][11]. Commodity Futures Related Information - The SHFE adjusted the daily limit range, margin ratio for hedging positions, and general positions of the silver futures AG2602 contract [11]. - On December 10, international precious metal futures generally rose, crude oil futures rose, and most London base metals rose [12]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on December 10, and the US dollar index fell [13][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Metals Gold (AU) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract was 957.90 yuan/gram, down 3.32 yuan from the previous trading day, up 1.50 yuan from last month, and up 1.50 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of COMEX gold's main contract was 4258.30 US dollars/ounce, up 21.70 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 19.60 US dollars from last week [1] - The spot price of London gold was 4195.78 US dollars/ounce, down 19.20 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 9.82 US dollars from last month, and down 5.65 US dollars from last week [1] Silver (AG) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract was 115 yuan/kilogram, with a previous trading - day value of 14488 yuan/kilogram, up 1.064 yuan from last week, and up 1.900 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of COMEX silver's main contract was 9.97 US dollars/ounce, up 1.04 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 62.20 US dollars from last month, and up 4.67 US dollars from last week [1] - The spot price of London silver was 2.41 US dollars/ounce, up 2.67 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 9.50 US dollars from last month, and up 61.04 US dollars from last week [1] Copper (CU, BC) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 92210 yuan/ton, up 1.230 yuan from the previous trading day, up 360 yuan from last month, and up 4.660 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of LME copper 3M (at 15:00) was 11619.00 US dollars/ton, up 143.00 US dollars from last month, and up 655.00 US dollars from last week [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Copper's warehouse receipts was 31461 tons, down 2,530 tons from the previous trading day, down 678 tons from last month, and down 12,496 tons from last week [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous trading day, down 80 yuan from last week, and up 35 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of Alumina's main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of LME aluminum 3M (at 15:00) was 2873.00 US dollars/ton, up 5.00 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 29.00 US dollars from last week, and down 25.00 US dollars from last month [1] Zinc (ZN) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22995 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan from last month, up 130 yuan from last week, and down 80 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of LME zinc 3M (at 15:00) was 3088 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars from last week, and down 16 US dollars from last month [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Zinc's warehouse receipts was 52802 tons, down 9,226 tons from the previous trading day, down 19,350 tons from last week, and down 1,968 tons from last month [1] Lead (PB) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17155 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous trading day, down 495 yuan from last week, and up 40 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of LME lead 3M (at 15:00) was 1990.00 US dollars/ton, down 15.00 US dollars from last week, and down 98.50 US dollars from last month [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Lead's warehouse receipts was 2.282 tons, down 8,113 tons from last week, and up 1.158 tons from last month [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan from the previous trading day, down 1,890 yuan from last week, and down 3,060 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous trading day, up 12500 yuan from last month, and up 75 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of LME nickel 3M (at 15:00) was 14645 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 145 US dollars from last week, and down 410 US dollars from last month [1] Tin (SN) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 320600 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan from the previous trading day, up 4.370 yuan from last week, and up 22,460 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of LME tin 3M (at 15:00) was 40435 US dollars/ton, down 345 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 225 US dollars from last week, and up 2.845 US dollars from last month [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Tin's warehouse receipts was 7024 tons, down 127 tons from the previous trading day, up 448 tons from last week, and up 1.326 tons from last month [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamentals [2][8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High-level shock market, with cost support from rising crude oil prices and tight supply-demand situation. It's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ. There is a supply contraction expectation in the supply side, and the demand side has a certain gap under the high start - up mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [4][8] - PTA: High-level shock market, with cost support from PX. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant about the negative feedback of the industrial chain due to the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9] - MEG: Short - term support due to the postponement of the restart plan of Shenghong Refining and Chemical and the unplanned load reduction of multiple units. The price has limited downside space at 3600 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9] Rubber - The rubber market is in a shock operation. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The short - term price policy of most manufacturers remains stable, and the transaction has flexibility [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range operation. As of December 10, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports also decreased. The market is in a situation of cautious price increase by suppliers and pressure on prices from downstream procurement [14][15][17] Asphalt - The asphalt market has a phased small - scale rebound due to geopolitical fluctuations. The weekly output increased this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [18][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE market shows a unilateral decline, and the basis weakens again. The futures market is under pressure, the upstream sells at a reduced price, and the demand is weak. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 may increase [29][30] PP - The PP market continues to be weak. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing inventory intensifies, the demand is weak, and the profit of PDH is at a low level. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short in the caustic soda market. The market has a pattern of high output and high inventory, the demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [34][36] Pulp - The pulp market is in a shock - strengthening trend. The futures market trading volume increased, and the spot market has differentiation. The supply - demand pattern of the pulp and paper system is relatively loose, and it is recommended to pay attention to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [39][41][43] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The floating glass price has minor fluctuations, the trading atmosphere in most regions is average, the demand is weak, and the supply inventory is high. Some production lines have a plan to stop production [46][47] Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The port inventory decreased significantly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. In the medium term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract is the main contradiction, and the price upside space is limited [50][52] Urea - The urea market is in a shock operation. The enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The price has support from the decrease of explicit inventory, but there is policy pressure above, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern [54][55][57] Styrene - The styrene market is in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure of styrene is high, and the supply pressure is not large, and the port inventory is slightly reduced [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market trend is stable, the output of enterprises is high, the new orders received are average, and the downstream demand is not so strong [62] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Wide - range shock under the disturbance of the cost side. Pay attention to the changes in CP prices and the start - up rate of related devices [65][70][71] - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited. The start - up rate of PDH increased compared with the previous week [66] PVC - The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The price is at a historical low, and some devices have a reduction expectation due to large losses. However, in the short term, it still faces the pattern of high start - up and weak demand [74][75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Continued downward trend, with the center of the disk moving down [77] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [77] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The PA alliance's unexpected performance drives the sentiment to improve. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market. It is recommended to short the 2604 contract on rallies [79][90] Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip markets face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies. The futures prices of short fiber and bottle chip are weak, and the spot prices are adjusted down [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the industry start - up level is high, and the market demand is light [95][96][98] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in a short - term shock. The port inventory increased, and the current reality pressure is large. There is an expectation of supply contraction after January 2026, and the demand may improve [100][101]

2025 年 12 月 11 日 短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251211 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251211 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 短纤趋势强度：-1；瓶片趋势强度：-1(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 短纤：今日短纤期货弱势下跌，现货方面大多工厂报价下调 50~150 元/吨，半光 1.4D 主流报价在 6400~6500 区间。贸易商及期现商进一步走低，成交放量，半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心多在 6100~6400 区间。 今日直纺涤短工厂销售一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 55%，部分工厂产销：60%、80%、70%、80%、 30%、30%、20%、50%、50%，50%。 瓶片：上游原料期货弱势下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价局部下调 30-100 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交尚 可。1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that due to the rise in US soybean prices, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures may follow and rebound. However, the US Department of Agriculture's forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 season may be too high because the Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,161 yuan/ton during the day session, up 75 yuan (+1.84%), and 4,159 yuan at night, up 36 yuan (+0.87%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,754 yuan/ton during the day session, down 17 yuan (-0.61%), and 2,748 yuan at night, down 2 yuan (-0.07%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1,092 cents/bushel, up 4.25 cents (+0.39%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at $300.9/short ton, down $0.5 (-0.17%) [2]. - **Spot**: In Shandong, the soybean meal price was stable to up 30 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,020 - 3,070 yuan/ton; in East China, it was up 20 - 30 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,020 - 3,080 yuan/ton; in South China, it was up 10 - 60 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,030 - 3,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Main Industry Data - The previous trading day's soybean meal inventory was 104.55 tons, compared with 107.34 tons two trading days ago. The previous week's trading volume was 19.77 tons [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On December 10, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters sold 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 11.9 tons and 21.2 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2025/26 season. However, some analysts believe the USDA's forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 season (44.5 million tons) is too high due to the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating the price volatility of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [4].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 铝：继续震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美联储如期再降息 25 基点，但三票委反对，仍预计明年降息一次，将买短债 400 亿美元；鲍威尔： 购债规模未来几个月或维持在较高水平，劳动力市场逐步降温但慢于预期，目前利率下能耐心等待，关税影 响明年料逐渐消退。（华尔街见闻） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21935 | 160 | -5 | 335 | 1390 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21960 | - | l | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2863 | 17 | -35 | ...

2025年12月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高，突破60 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：高位回落 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：继续震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：上方承压明显 | 14 | | 钯：震荡偏上 | 14 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 16 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产消息反复，高位震荡 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注工业硅厂挺价情况 | 20 | | 多晶硅：平台公司股权细节公布，盘面继续逢低做多 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：地产板块情绪扰动，低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：地产板块情绪扰动，低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅 ...