Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term port inventory of methanol is accelerating, and the 01 contract is weak in the short - term under the premium situation, but remains in a mid - term shock pattern. The main reasons for the mid - term shock are the support of anti - involution policies, the strong fundamentals of the MA2601 contract in the fourth quarter, and the expected restart of some MTOs in September [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on August 19, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the trading volume was 438,253 lots, down 48,430 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 665,628 lots, up 42,183 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,968 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 1051.859 million yuan, down 130.759 million yuan; the basis was - 94, down 7; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 103, down 7 [1] - In the spot market, on August 19, 2025, the ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Spot News - The report does not provide specific content in this part Futures Research - As of August 13, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10.41%. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with 236,000 tons of visible unloading of foreign vessels and many non - visible unloading. The inventory in East China increased due to stable supply despite increased提货, and the inventory in South China increased significantly due to concentrated arrivals [3] - The trend strength of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for live pigs continues to be weak. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume has been poor recently, and it is difficult to absorb market supply. The spot performance over the weekend was again below expectations, and there is a sentiment of panic selling. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The trend of closing the premium continues. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center. Short - term support for the LH2509 contract is at 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is at 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 14,990 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year. Futures prices: LH2509 is 13,640 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2511 is 13,820 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2601 is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For LH2509, trading volume is 7,834 lots, an increase of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 14,091 lots, a decrease of 1,630 lots from the previous day. For LH2511, trading volume is 35,708 lots, an increase of 15,263 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 71,193 lots, an increase of 6,351 lots from the previous day. For LH2601, trading volume is 13,123 lots, an increase of 3,215 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 47,783 lots, an increase of 1,038 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 140 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2511 basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2601 basis is - 380 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year. LH9 - 11 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with a range of [- 2,2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that due to supply disruptions and positive demand, the upward - trending and volatile situation of lithium carbonate may continue [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 89,300, the volume is 50,353, and the open interest is 81,117. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 89,240, the volume is 1,036,328, and the open interest is 421,106 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 23,555 hands [1] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2509 is - 4,700, between spot and 2511 is - 4,640, between 2509 and 2511 is 60, between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,300, and between spot and CIF is 14,962 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 978, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,185 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,600, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,300, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 81,710, etc [1] - **Related Products for Consumption**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 114,230, ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 117,590, etc [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 84,794 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,069 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,600 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1,900 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday [2] - India plans to reduce the goods and services tax for entry - level two - wheelers, small cars, and hybrid passenger cars before October [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Bullish with caution on near - month warehouse receipts" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market's core driver is the continuous expansion of demand. With rising alumina demand and strong export support, the market is expected to have upward - driven spot prices during the downstream peak season. However, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit profit expansion and cause potential passive production cuts. Overall, a bullish view is maintained, but near - month warehouse receipts need attention in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2700, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 850, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is - 44 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, supported by a 20 yuan/ton increase in the procurement price of major downstream, local caustic soda plants raised prices to varying degrees. With low inventory pressure, the short - term market is expected to remain at a high level [1] Market Condition Analysis - Demand side: Alumina's rigid and stocking demand is rising, especially with 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity expected to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight local supply and increased demand for 50% caustic soda. The 93 - parade affects transportation, and a Shandong alumina plant may raise its procurement price. Export support remains strong, but inventory - building rhythms affect domestic prices [1] - Supply side: The weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries like PVC limits profit expansion and may cause passive production cuts in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [1]. - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to today's market news [2]. Content Summary by Category 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price was 8,605 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 511,250 lots, a decrease of 31,867 lots; the open interest was 297,619 lots, an increase of 21,347 lots [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 425,548 lots, a decrease of 194,013 lots; the open interest was 135,517 lots, a decrease of 3,206 lots [2]. - **Basis**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium for East - China Si5530 was +820 yuan/ton, for East - China Si4210 was +370 yuan/ton, and for Xinjiang 99 silicon was +120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium for N - type re - investment was - 5,740 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price**: - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,496 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 3,175 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons, the industry inventory was 71.6 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.4 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 24.2 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton; the price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 970 yuan/ton; the price of petroleum coke (Maoming coke) was 1,400 yuan/ton, (Yangtze coke) was 1,740 yuan/ton; the price of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton, and carbon electrodes was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of trichlorosilane was 3,375 yuan/ton, silicon powder (99 silicon) was 9,850 yuan/ton [2]. - **Related Products in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry**: - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) was 1.54 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) was 0.285 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) was 0.674 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) was 18 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA price was 9,800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 11,000 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit was - 688 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On August 15th, Inner Mongolia Electric Power Trading Center Co., Ltd. completed the first settlement of the new - energy full - market entry under Document No. 136, with 12,561 new - energy projects participating in market transactions. In July, the settlement mechanism electricity volume of Inner Mongolia's power multi - lateral trading market was 1.44 billion kWh, and the mechanism electricity price difference settlement cost was 120 million yuan, affecting the electricity price of all industrial and commercial users by about 0.005 yuan/kWh. The overall settlement average price of newly - entered distributed, decentralized, poverty - alleviation, and solar - thermal new - energy was 316 yuan/MWh, 33.1 yuan/MWh higher than the mechanism electricity price [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Precious metals and base metals futures market analysis Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: PPI exceeded expectations, dampening interest - rate cut expectations [2] - Silver: Prices declined slightly [2] - Copper: Lacked driving forces, with prices oscillating [2] - Zinc: Prices were under pressure and declined [2] - Lead: LME inventory decreased, providing price support [2] - Tin: Prices oscillated within a range [2] - Aluminum: Price fluctuations converged [2] - Alumina: Price center shifted downward [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Prices followed those of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillation based on fundamentals, with caution for news - related risks [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro expectations and reality [2] Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Movement**: All major gold contracts and spot prices declined, with沪金2510 down 0.37% to 775.80, and Comex黄金2510 down 0.02% to 3381.70 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8] Silver - **Price Movement**: All major silver contracts and spot prices decreased, with沪银2510 down 0.88% to 9204, and Comex白银2510 down 0.04% to 38.020 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] Copper - **Price Movement**:沪铜主力合约closed at 78,910, down 0.19%, and伦铜3M电子盘closed at 9,752, down 0.08% [10] - **Market News**: US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years. Chile's copper exports to China recovered in July after a decline in June [10][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Zinc - **Price Movement**:沪锌主力收盘价was 22360, down 0.64%, and伦锌3M电子盘收was 2796.5, down 1.62% [13] - **Market News**: At the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, Powell's speech was closely watched, with different banks having various expectations [14] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, showing a bearish outlook [14] Lead - **Price Movement**:沪铅主力收盘价was 16775, down 0.45%, and伦铅3M电子盘收was 1981, down 0.45% [16] - **Market News**: US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Tin - **Price Movement**:沪锡主力合约closed at 267,020, up 0.07%, and伦锡3M电子盘closed at 33,670, up 0.18% [19] - **Market News**: Multiple macro - level events such as statements from Chinese and US leaders [20] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations converged.沪铝主力合约收盘价was 20600, and LME铝3M收盘价was 2589 [22] - **Alumina**: Price center shifted downward.沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价was 3171 [22] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Prices followed electrolytic aluminum.铝合金主力合约收盘价was 20090 [22] - **Market News**: US - India trade agreement was uncertain, and US "sticky inflation" was accelerating [24] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: - 1; Aluminum alloy: 0 [24] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Prices oscillated in a narrow range based on fundamentals.沪镍主力收盘价was 120,340 [25] - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro expectations and reality.不锈钢主力收盘价was 13,010 [25] - **Market News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as production suspensions and regulatory changes [25][26][27] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is experiencing a short - term corrective rebound, and long - short spreads should be held [1]. 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures rose by $0.62 per barrel, or 0.99%, to $63.42 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures rose by $0.75 per barrel, or 1.14%, to $66.60 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures rose by 3.40 yuan per barrel, or 0.70%, to 488.60 yuan per barrel [1]. News Events - After Ukraine attacked a pipeline transformer station, Russia's oil supply to Hungary was interrupted [2]. - An executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said they would continue to purchase Russian oil based on economic conditions [3]. - Trump had a phone conversation with Putin and started arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with the location to be determined [5]. - As part of an agreement, Ukraine will promise to buy US weapons worth $100 billion with European funding to get US security guarantees after a peace agreement with Russia; Kiev and Washington will also reach a $500 - million agreement to cooperate with Ukrainian drone - producing companies [5]. - Hamas and other Palestinian factions agreed to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar [5]. - Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees [5]. - Trump thought there would be a solution today, and the resolution might include security measures [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nonferrous and Precious Metals Daily Data Briefing [1] - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Mo Xiaoxiong, Wang Rong, Li Xianfei, etc. [1] Group 2: Gold (AU) - Shanghai Gold Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/gram): 777.66 on July 21, 2025, with changes of 1.86, 1.86, -4.04 compared to different periods [1] - COMEX Gold Main Contract Closing Price (USD/ounce): 3381.70, with changes of -28.60, -0.60, -76.50 [1] - London Gold Spot Price (USD/ounce): 3339.93, with changes of -10.35, -55.70, -34.47 [1] - Domestic Basis (yuan/gram): Gold T+D - Main Contract, 8.17, with changes of -2.86, -0.15, 3.47 [1] - Overseas Basis (USD/ounce): LBMA Gold Spot - COMEX AU01, -7.75, with changes of 56.30, 80.40, -46.20 [1] Group 3: Silver (AG) - Shanghai Silver Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/kilogram): -13 on August 11, 2025, 9258 on August 18, 2025, with other period - related changes [1] - COMEX Silver Main Contract Closing Price (USD/ounce): -1.22, 38.02, with changes of -0.01, 0.38 [1] - London Silver Spot Price (USD/ounce): 37.73, with changes of -0.59, -0.56, -0.54 [1] - Domestic Basis (yuan/gram): AG(T+D) - Main Contract, -1, with changes of -8, -11 [1] - Overseas Basis (USD/ounce): LBMA Silver Spot - COMEX AG01, -0.58, with changes of -0.07, -0.14, -0.29 [1] Group 4: Copper (CU, BC) - Shanghai Copper (CU) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): -110, 78950, with changes of -70, -750 [1] - International Copper (BC) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): -130, -150, -840, 70050 [1] - LME Copper 3M Closing Price (15:00) (USD/ton): -31.50, -30.00, -119.50, 9736.00 [1] - COMEX Copper Main Contract (USD/pound): -1.03, -0.01, 0.11, 4.55 [1] - Shanghai Copper Monthly Spread (CU00 - CU01) (yuan/ton): 40, 110, -70, 40 [1] - International Copper Monthly Spread (BC00 - BC01) (yuan/ton): -60.00, 10, 820, 840 [1] - LME Copper 0 - 3 Premium (USD/ton): -93.75, -5.00, -12.10, -26.79 [1] - SMM1 Electrolytic Copper (yuan/ton): 45, 225, 75, 5 [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - Shanghai Aluminum (AL) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): 20600, with changes of -240, -170, -100 [1] - Alumina (AO) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): -34, 3171, with changes of -215, -11 [1] - LME Aluminum 3M Closing Price (15:00) (USD/ton): -26.50, 2593.00, with changes of -24.00, -43.50 [1] - COMEX Aluminum Main Contract Closing Price (USD/ton): -2,540.00, -5,097.50, 2548.25, 5.00 [1] - Shanghai Aluminum Monthly Spread (AL00 - AL01) (yuan/ton): -15, 20, 5, -25 [1] - Alumina - Aluminum Monthly Spread (A000 - A001) (yuan/ton): 7, 26, 17, -17 [1] - LME Aluminum 0 - 3 Premium (USD/ton): 2.50, 2.51, -0.50, -1 [1] Group 6: Zinc (ZN) - Shanghai Zinc (ZN) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): 22340, with changes of -165, -250, -585 [1] - LME Zinc 3M Closing Price (15:00): 2786, with changes of -50, -59, -54 [1] - Shanghai Zinc Monthly Spread (ZN00 - ZN01) (yuan/ton): -20, 5, 10, 20 [1] - LME Zinc 0 - 3 Premium: -12.19, 1.00, -17.14, -6.72 [1] - Regional Spot Premium: Guangdong (yuan/ton) -20, -25, -35, -90; Shanghai (yuan/ton) -10, 10, 15, -10; Tianjin (yuan/ton) -10, 0, 0, 0 [1] Group 7: Lead (PB) - Shanghai Lead (PB) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): -75, 16775, with changes of -110, -185 [1] - LME Lead 3M Closing Price (15:00) (USD/ton): 1973.00, with changes of -37.00, -11.50, -38.00 [1] - Shanghai Lead Monthly Spread (PB00 - PB01) (yuan/ton): 35, 75, 20, -15 [1] - LME Lead 0 - 3 Premium (USD/ton): -2.37, -43.24, -19.74, -4.74 [1] - Refined Lead Shanghai Premium (yuan/ton): -25, 0, 10, 35 [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - Shanghai Nickel (NI) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): -260, 120340, with changes of -1,790, -2,210 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): 0, 13010, with changes of -215, 105 [1] - LME Nickel 3M Closing Price (15:00) (USD/ton): 10, -200, -290, 15055 [1] - Shanghai Nickel Monthly Spread (NI00 - NI01) (yuan/ton): -120, 30, 80, 110 [1] - Stainless Steel Monthly Spread (SS00 - SS01) (yuan/ton): -75, -90, -80, -85 [1] - LME Nickel 0 - 3 Premium (USD/ton): 25, 30, -175, 30 [1] Group 9: Tin (SN) - Shanghai Tin (SN) Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton): -230, 267020, with changes of 200, -1,360 [1] - LME Tin 3M Closing Price (15:00): 200, -90, 33650, 10 [1] - Shanghai Tin Monthly Spread (SNOO - SN01) (yuan/ton): 210, -270, 340, -50 [1] - LME Tin 0 - 3 Premium: 147, 153, 105, -42 [1] - Regional Spot Premium: Shanghai (yuan/ton) 650, 0, -50, 0 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry's supply - demand pattern shows continuous capacity expansion and weak demand growth, which is consistent with previous research. There are significant differences in cost and formula among paper mills. The cash cost for enterprises to produce double - offset paper that meets the delivery standard is estimated to be in the range of 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton [3][40][42]. - After the futures are listed, double - offset paper prices face potential upward and downward risks. The downward risk comes from the negative feedback between price and cost, while the upward risk is due to the market's possible over - pessimism and high short - trading congestion [4][42][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Product Structure**: Enterprises focused on publishing have a higher proportion of natural - white paper. Orders from the publishing industry mainly require natural - white paper, while the proportion of natural - white paper in social orders is significantly lower. The difference in product structure between the north and south markets is due to order differences [8]. - **Formula**: Different enterprises have large differences in formula. With the continuous expansion of finished - paper production capacity and the slowdown of cultural - paper demand, enterprises are increasing the use of chemimechanical pulp and reducing the use of chemical pulp. Some producers in South China can make double - offset paper without adding softwood pulp [10][12]. - **Capacity and Production**: Some production lines may switch production. The overall operating level has not decreased significantly. Some enterprises achieved full production and sales in the first half of the year, while others had an operating level of about 80% - 90% [12]. - **Raw Material Procurement**: Most enterprises mainly purchase commercial pulp externally, covering mainstream softwood and hardwood brands. Some enterprises are self - sufficient in chemimechanical pulp, while others purchase it externally. It is difficult for some domestic hardwood pulp to completely replace imported hardwood pulp [15][18]. - **Product Conversion**: Converting between natural - white and high - white paper usually only requires adding bleach [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Sales Channels**: There is significant differentiation among sample enterprises. Publishing orders are mainly direct - sold, while social orders include both distribution and direct - to - printer sales [20]. - **Seasonal Demand**: The seasonal characteristics of demand are gradually being smoothed out. The consumption peak of pulp lags behind that of double - offset paper. There may be an opportunity for the strategy of going long on pulp and short on paper after downstream enterprises complete their bidding [22]. - **Policy Impact**: The "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has different impacts on publishers of different natures, mainly affecting social book - sellers. It may reduce the double - offset paper demand of private tutoring materials by about 20% - 30% [26]. - **Sales Radius**: Paper enterprises' sales can cover a radius of 500 - 800 km [26]. 3.3 Inventory - **Raw Material Inventory**: Self - produced pulp has little inventory, while the inventory days of externally purchased commercial pulp vary among enterprises, with small and medium - sized factories having shorter inventory days [27]. - **Finished - Product Inventory**: The inventory is slightly higher than last year but generally acceptable. Most enterprises' inventory levels are within one month, and they have clear inventory red lines [27]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Enterprises supplying paper to publishers usually reserve inventory in advance, with a cycle of half a year to one year. Traders may have a certain demand for stockpiling when the price reaches around 4000 yuan [29]. 3.4 Price and Cost - **Pricing Logic**: Paper mills price their products mainly based on orders and market conditions, i.e., demand - driven pricing. High inventory levels may lead to price cuts to reduce inventory [30]. - **Cost Factors**: Formula, wood - pulp self - sufficiency rate, and the presence of self - owned power plants have a significant impact on costs. A higher proportion of chemimechanical pulp and self - owned power plants can reduce costs [31]. - **Profitability**: Most producers still make a profit, while one enterprise is near the break - even point [37]. 3.5 Market Expectations - **Paper Price Outlook**: The industry's supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and most sample participants are not optimistic about paper prices. The downward space is estimated to be around 100 - 200 yuan/ton [38]. - **Futures Attitude**: The willingness of the industry to participate in futures depends on whether their products are delivery brands. Long - side acceptance willingness is relatively weak. Industry short - side forces need to see an absolute high price to enter the market, while long - side chips may come from private book - sellers and some traders with social - order resources [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [8]. - China's economic data for July shows that industrial added - value and consumer spending increased year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [8]. - National housing price data in July shows that prices in most cities decreased month - on - month, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased [9]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote a reasonable rise in prices [10]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting a "penetrating" supervision system [10]. - China sues Canada at the WTO over import restrictions on steel products [10]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday will have an 8 - day holiday, and tolls for small passenger cars will be waived [11]. - Hong Kong's financial secretary believes that the economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities [12]. - KPMG China believes that the central government has room to increase fiscal spending, and policies may be re - arranged in the fourth quarter [12]. - Trump has no plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil [12]. - Trump and Putin met in Alaska, and significant progress was made in the Russia - Ukraine issue [13]. - The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and plans to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors [15]. - The US trade negotiation representative cancelled the trip to India, and the hope of reaching an agreement before the deadline was dashed [15]. - Some Fed officials are hesitant about interest rate cuts due to inflation data and tariff uncertainties [15]. - US retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August [15][16]. - China's soybean imports are mainly from South America during the peak export season [17]. - Japan's GDP grew in the second quarter [17]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options, as well as fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [17]. - On the night of August 15, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with palm oil, coking coal, and other products leading the gains [18]. - The global physical gold ETF had an inflow of $3.2 billion in July, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [20]. - On August 15, international precious metal futures, crude oil futures, and some base metal futures closed lower, while agricultural product futures on the CBOT closed higher [20][21][22]. - China's foreign exchange market was stable in July, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [22][23]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with most of them rising. It is expected that on August 18, stock index futures will show a strong and volatile trend [23][24][25]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, they will show a weak and volatile trend [50][54]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, gold futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and silver futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend [56][62]. Base Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, copper futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend, aluminum futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and alumina futures will show a strong and volatile trend [67][73][78]. Energy Futures - On August 15, the main contract of crude oil futures rose slightly. It is expected that on August 18, it will show a weak and volatile trend [118]. Agricultural Product Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of most agricultural product futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, most of them will show a strong and volatile trend, while natural rubber futures will show a weak and volatile trend [129][131][142].