商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 LLDPE：震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6969 | -0.07% | 229,753 | -2302 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -59 | | -99 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -52 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6910 | | 6900 | | | | 华东 | 6980 | | 6950 | | | | 华南 | 7180 | | 7100 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 期货研究 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格小幅涨跌，幅度在 10-50 元/吨。线性期货高开，但盘中偏弱震荡，市 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | | 期指：或突破 | | 4000 | 点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4660.68 | ↑1.18 | | 5519.9 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4648.4 | ↑1.50 | -12.28 | 338.7 | 24392 | ↓4263 | 40441 | ↓2317 | | IF2512 | 4634.8 | ↑1.49 | -25.88 | 1027.1 | 74172 | ↓9915 | 153415 | ↓6793 | | IF2603 | 4604 | ↑1.37 | -56.68 | 195 ...

2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 2 | | 铜：宏观情绪改善，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：重心上移 | 11 | | 氧化铝：减量不持续 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金25 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注中美磋商结果 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，底部较有支撑 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注政策落地信息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,150 | 770 | 990 | -30 | 700 | -2,210 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,810 | 45 | 180 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 所 长 首 推 期货研究 2025-10-27 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 人民日报钟声：共同维护好来之不易的中美经贸磋商成果 观点分享： | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | ★★★★ | | 纯苯：绝对估值偏低，但是基本面驱动仍然向下，短期谨慎抄底。目前纯苯仍然面临三重压 | | | 力，下游需求偏弱、采购意愿不佳、供应逐步回归区域套利打开。纯苯近期下跌过程中，下 | | | 游利润继续被挤压，终端需求整体疲软，下游固体库存快速累积，四季度需求短期暂时没有 | | | 看到起色，关注后续中美贸易战缓和对于实际订单的边际增量。在终端需求偏弱的背景之下， | | | 下游进一步采购的意愿不佳，并且目前下游原料库存处于中性水平，维持在刚需水平之上， | | | 短期囤货意愿难有起色。11 月之后纯苯的检修逐步回归，并且目前山东市场价格跌破 5200 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 元/吨，整体偏弱，区域套利货源持续向华东转移，物流窗口打开。整体来看，虽然纯苯绝对 估值 ...

2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 771.0 | -6.0 | -0.77% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 565. 642 | 4. 501 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨 ...

2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：反弹震荡，等待中美经贸会谈指引 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：现货短期存在支撑 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,122 | -0.11% | ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 41 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,137.8 | 0.10% | 817 | 4,292 | -526 | 0.19 | | 0.19 | | | EC2512 | 1,831.0 | 3.14% | 35,117 | 30,249 | 1,335 | 1.16 | | 0.76 | | | EC2602 | 1,601.0 | 1.77% | 3,971 | 11,509 | 971 | 0.35 | | 0.25 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 651. ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 27 日 股指期货：风偏积极，偏强运行 ● 趋势策略。逢低做多。预计 IF 主力合约 IF2511 核心运行区间 4509 和 4741 点；IH 主力合约 IH2511 核心运行区间 2972 和 3109 点；IC 主力合约 IC2511 核心运行区间 6995 和 7464 点；IM 主力合 约 IM2511 核心运行区间 7111 和 7590 点。 ● 跨品种策略。空 IF（或 IH）多 IC(或 IM)的策略持有。 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场上涨，沪指突破 3950 点，创近十年新高，逼近 4000 点大关。通 信、电子、电力设备涨幅居前；农林牧渔、食品饮料、美容护理跌幅居前。四中全会闭幕，政策靴子落 地，不确定性降低。未来五年方向明确，规划重提"坚持以经济建设为中心"。虽然外部环境恶化，不利 扰动增多，但依然重申暗含 GDP 增速要求的"2035 远景目标"，或预示稳增长仍将持续贯穿"十五五"时 期。整体上"四中全会"为市场吃了定心丸。除了经济总量稳定抬升以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing while the demand is weak, which restricts the price increase. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 17,200 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The processing fee of lead concentrate remains weak [3][5][7]. - The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased. The start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The spot end's role in pushing up the price has weakened. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 17,595 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.05%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,575 yuan, with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The LME lead cash - forward spread changed from - 41.85 to - 36.64, with a change of 5.21. The premium of lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 112.5. The spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead changed from - 25 to - 10, with a change of 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 75, with a change of - 25 [8]. - **Inventory**: From October 16th to October 23rd, the domestic lead inventory decreased from 37,700 tons to 31,900 tons, still at a relatively low level for the same period in history. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,034 tons to 23,048 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 31,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons [7][8]. - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 79,514 lots, an increase of 39,872 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 83,846 lots, an increase of 43,628 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LME S - lead 3 was 4,991 lots, a decrease of 997 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate continues to be weak. The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate decreased to - 125 US dollars/ton this week. The import lead concentrate processing fee decreased from - 110 to - 125 US dollars/ton, and the import lead concentrate smelting profit decreased by 152 yuan/ton to - 1,850 yuan/ton. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead concentrate smelting profit remained at - 2,800 yuan/ton [5][7][8]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Some secondary lead enterprises in some regions are under maintenance due to environmental protection control, but the profit of primary lead has increased, and the supply of waste batteries is abundant. Secondary lead enterprises in Anhui have resumed production more [7]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: Consumption is gradually entering the off - season. The enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased, the start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in previous years is shown in the data, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are also provided [7][46]. - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead in previous years is shown in the data, along with the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles [48].