2025 年 08 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：基本面弱势格局，关注市场情绪 多晶硅：消息扰动增加 资料来源：SMM，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 8 月 4 日，河北省发改委下发《关于组织开展绿电直连项目申报工作的通知》，有序推进绿电直连工 作。根据文件，优先支持三类项目：优先支持算力、钢铁、水泥、化工、制氢、锂离子电池制造、生物医药 等重点行业企业申报；优先支持已纳入风电、光伏项目储备库的项目申请开展绿电直连；鼓励尚未开展电网 接入工程建设或因新能源消纳受限无法并网的新能源项目履行变更手续后开展绿电直连。在具体的并网比 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,450 | 90 | -900 | 470 | | | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PVC 基本面数据 09合约期货价格 华东现货价格 基差 9-1月差 5042 4890 -152 -135 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 黑色焦炭低价反弹，午后盘中触及涨停，带动黑色相关产业成本性推涨，午后 PVC 盘面小幅拉升，然 现货市场需求心态谨慎，市场成交平淡，供需基本面未有变化，现货成交重心承压，华东地区电石法五型现 汇库提在 4850-4950 元/吨，乙烯法在 4900-5150 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造，目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动，关注焦煤等商品走势。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此轮反弹过程中大幅扩张。下半年看，供应端减产驱动不足，PVC 高产量， 高库存的结构难以缓解，因此市场后期仍会做空氯碱利润。 PVC：区间震荡行情 期货研究 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 6, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Wide - Range Fluctuations, Resource - End Disturbances Unresolved - Analysts: Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0015722), Liu Hongru (Contact, Futures Trading Qualification No.: F03124172) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations, and the resource - end disturbances have not been settled yet [1]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]. 3. Content Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,680 yuan, down 1,240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 173,147 lots, down 74,751 lots; the open interest was 175,266 lots, down 32,504 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 67,840 yuan, down 1,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 437,207 lots, up 148,821 lots; the open interest was 232,062 lots, up 16,113 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, up 1,840 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,520 yuan, up 1,090 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 160 yuan, down 40 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,710 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 110,360 yuan, up 80 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,390 yuan, up 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 145,230 yuan, up 60 yuan from T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,988 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. - In July 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 9.0GW/25.8GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting procurement and bidding work, and another 1.73GWh of energy storage DC - side orders were finalized. The proportion of independent energy storage projects in the total procurement scale was as high as 92%, while the proportion of renewable energy - paired energy storage projects has been declining for several months, reaching only 3.8% in July [4].

焦炭：偏强震荡 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | | --- | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 1035 | 29.5 | 2.9% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1634. 5 | 19.5 | 1.2% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 542302 | 178776 | -39264 | | | | J2509 | 32559 | 25675 | -107 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 沥青：跌后盘整 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2018-3 2018-7 2018-11 2019-3 2019-7 2019-11 2020-3 2020-7 2020-11 2021-3 2021-7 2021-11 2022-3 2022-7 2022-11 2023-3 2023-7 2023-11 2024-3 2024-7 2024-11 2025-3 2025-7 吨 江苏 山东 BU厂库仓单 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,544 | -0. ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. For futures, the prices of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,885 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year), 13,880 yuan/ton (down 25 year - on - year), and 14,170 yuan/ton (down 15 year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,732 hands (down 9,396 from the previous day), 16,849 hands (down 1,854 from the previous day), and 6,879 hands (down 4,350 from the previous day) respectively. The open interests are 35,710 hands (down 2,540 from the previous day), 55,042 hands (up 2,723 from the previous day), and 40,487 hands (down 21 from the previous day) respectively [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 295 yuan/ton (up 105 year - on - year), 300 yuan/ton (up 75 year - on - year), and 10 yuan/ton (up 65 year - on - year) respectively. The spreads between contracts 9 - 11 and 11 - 1 are 5 yuan/ton (down 30 year - on - year) and - 290 yuan/ton (down 10 year - on - year) respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the sugar market, covering price data, macro and industry news, and production, consumption, and import forecasts in domestic and international markets [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.09 cents/pound, down 0.16 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5697 yuan/ton, down 21 [1] - The 91 spread is 59 yuan/ton, down 23; the 15 spread is 64 yuan/ton, up 2; the mainstream spot basis is 293 yuan/ton, up 21 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that the sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] 3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of June in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2] 4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously forecasted a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 15.66 million tons (-1.59 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3] - In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] 5. Sugar Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil had a narrow - range adjustment during the night session, with a short - term oscillating trend [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market declined again [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2509, the closing price was 2,842 yuan/ton, down 0.14%, and the settlement price was 2,818 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [1]. - For FU2510, the closing price was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the settlement price was 2,839 yuan/ton, down 1.73% [1]. - For LU2509, the closing price was 3,562 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the settlement price was 3,544 yuan/ton, down 0.78% [1]. - For LU2510, the closing price was 3,560 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, and the settlement price was 3,539 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 333,121 lots, a decrease of 183,814 lots, and the open interest was 137,503 lots, a decrease of 4,374 lots [1]. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 144,527 lots, a decrease of 16,999 lots, and the open interest was 80,705 lots, a decrease of 1,103 lots [1]. - The trading volume of LU2509 was 3,561 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots, and the open interest was 9,868 lots, a decrease of 792 lots [1]. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 86,813 lots, a decrease of 22,368 lots, and the open interest was 51,179 lots, a decrease of 1,869 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the whole market were 110,980, and for low - sulfur fuel oil were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 406.4 dollars/ton, up 0.47%, and (0.5%S) was 498.8 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [1]. - Singapore Bunker (3.5%S) was 419.0 dollars/ton, up 0.72%, and (0.5%S) was 511.0 dollars/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Other spot prices in different regions also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the settlement spread [1]. - The spread of LU09 - 10 was 2 yuan/ton, compared to the settlement spread of 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread of LU09 - FU09 was 720 yuan/ton, compared to the settlement spread of 726 yuan/ton [1]. - Other price spreads also had corresponding changes, such as the spread between futures and spot prices and the spread between different sulfur - content products [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil was 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil was also 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

2025 年 8 月 6 日 LPG：成本支撑偏弱 丙烯：供需格局宽松，短期弱势震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,845 | -1.31% | 3,829 | -0.42% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,281 | -0.65% | 4,308 | 0.63% | | | PL2601 | 6,512 | 0.48% | 6,476 | -0.55% | | | PL2602 | 6,571 昨日成交 | 0.52% 较前日变动 | 6,542 昨日持仓 | -0.44% 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 94,257 | 1692 | 101,941 | 5819 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 33,586 | 1922 | 78,899 | 8017 | | | PL2601 | 1,971 | -166 | 4,461 | -25 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil and paying attention to US sanctions on Russian energy [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.13 per barrel, a decline of 1.70%, at $65.16 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $1.12 per barrel, a decline of 1.63%, at $67.64 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.30%, at 502.50 yuan per barrel [1]. Market News - Russia is considering an aerial cease - fire but will not agree to a full cease - fire [2]. - Trump said if energy prices drop low enough, Putin will stop the conflict. He will decide whether to sanction countries buying Russian energy after a meeting in Witkov on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% tariff on Russian oil, but the result is undetermined [2]. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 1 was - 4233000 barrels, compared with an expected - 1845000 barrels and a previous value of 1539000 barrels. API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and heating oil inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - The CEO of Bank of America said their economists expect the US economy to grow about 1% - 1.5% this year [2]. - Trump will "significantly" raise tariffs on Indian imports in the next 24 hours due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, with the current tariff rate at 25% [2]. - Eurozone's July composite PMI rose from 50.6 in June to 50.9, slightly lower than the initial estimate of 51.0, still indicating economic weakness. The service - sector PMI climbed from 50.5 in June to 51.0 [2]. - Dutch International Bank believes OPEC+ may end production increases [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] and a classification of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, strong, where - 2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [4].