2026 年 2 月 9 日 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势 20260209 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,580 | -0.21% | 14620 | 0.27% | | | CY2605 | 元/吨 | 20,405 | -0.20% | 20390 | -0.07% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 61.07 | -1.15% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 356,519 | -112,287 | 1,036,886 | -3,107 | | | CY2605 | 手 | 7,245 | -1,999 | 11,165 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 ...

2026 年 02 月 09 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，基本面驱动有限 豆油：区间震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,026 | -0.18% | 8,996 | -0.33% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,102 | -0.02% | 8,122 | 0.25% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,144 | 0.00% | 9,156 | 0.13% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,153 | -1.26% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.34 | -0.56% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 285,443 | -163592 | 444,122 | -11,277 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 9 日 黄金：震荡反弹 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,090.12 | -1.41% | 1114.50 | 2.82% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,091.49 | -1.30% | 1111.00 | 2.97% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4988.60 | 3.97% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4966.61 | 3.98% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 18799 | -6.19% | 19840.00 | 3.51% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 18197 | -7.16% | 18848 | 3.97% | | | Comex白银2602 | 77.525 | 10.20% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 ...

2026年02月09日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | 期货研究 | | | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 47 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 48 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 49 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 49 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 52 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 53 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 53 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 54 | | 短纤：短期震荡市20260209 | 57 | | 瓶片：短期震荡市20260209 | 57 | | 胶版印刷纸：空单止盈离场 | 58 | | 纯苯：偏强震荡 | 60 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 | 61 | | 豆一：现货逐步进入假期模式，盘面震荡 | 61 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 63 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 64 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260209 | 65 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 67 | | 生猪：旺季不旺确认，堰塞湖释放开始 | 68 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

2026 年 2 月 9 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-02-09 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 2 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 1 月金融统计数据报告、1 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、 1 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 2 月 10 日 21:30，美国商务部将公布 1 月零售销售。 2 月 11 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 1 月 CPI 和 PPI， 2 月 11 日 21:30，美国劳工部统计局将公布 1 月非农就业报告。 2 月 12 日 21:30，美国劳工部将公布截至 2 月 7 日当周初请失业金人数。 2 月 13 日 09:30， ...

MEG：据悉，沙特一套 85 万吨/年的乙二醇装置计划 3-4 月份停车检修，预计时间在 1-2 个月。据悉， 沙特一套 38 万吨/年的乙二醇装置重启时间待定，该装置原计划 2 月份内重启。 期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 09 日 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 PTA：区间震荡市 MEG：区间操作 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7262 | 5166 | 3743 | 6578 | 469.8 | | 涨跌 | 62 | 22 | -2 | 14 | 2.6 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.86% | 0.43% | -0.05% | 0.21% | 0.56% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 14 | 8 | -114 | -80 | 0 | | 前日收盘价 | 14 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market adjusted, with a decline in risk appetite. Weighted indices were relatively resilient. The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics sectors led the losses. The core driver was the news of the new Fed chair appointment, which led to a convergence of easing expectations and continuous disruptions. In the commodity market, precious metals and non-ferrous sectors continued to fluctuate weakly, and related A-share sectors led the decline. In the technology theme, although some large US technology companies and domestic AI leading companies released good financial reports or performance forecasts, they failed to show stronger upward momentum due to over-optimistic expectations, resulting in a pullback after reaching a high. Funds shifted to the previously underperforming weighted blue-chip sectors, and the consumption recovery expectation before the Spring Festival led to a continuous rebound of blue-chip weighted stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, driving the weighted indices to perform strongly [1]. - This week is the last trading day before the Spring Festival. Trading may become light, and trading volume is expected to decline. Due to the long holiday and many external uncertainties, the wait-and-see sentiment among funds is rising. The market is expected to show no significant performance this week, and the style may still focus on high-to-low switching. However, the domestic policy continues to support the market, and there are policy expectations for the upcoming Two Sessions. The AI industry is booming, and the global monetary and fiscal easing is certain in the long term, so the market is expected to have certain support and is unlikely to have a large adjustment space. If there are no black swans externally, the stock index is expected to have a good start after the holiday. After the holiday, the market will enter the trading time for the Two Sessions and then transition to the "Golden March and Silver April" trading logic at the real economy level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Spot Market Review** - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.84%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 1.43%, Germany's DAX rose 0.74%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.81%. In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.02%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27% [9]. - Since 2025, major indices have risen, but last week, all major domestic indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.28% [11]. - Last week, industries in the CSI 300 Index showed mixed performance, while most industries in the CSI 500 Index declined. The market trading volume and turnover rate declined [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Market Review** - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, IM had the largest decline, and IC had the largest amplitude. The trading volume of stock index futures remained flat, and the open interest increased slightly. The basis of the main contracts and the cross-variety ratio of stock index futures showed certain trends [17]. - **Index Valuation Tracking** - As of January 30, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.15 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.22 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.74 times. The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 38.13 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 50.72 times [18][20]. - **Market Capital Flow Review** - The margin trading balance in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate once declined last week, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [20][21]. 2. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy** - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts. The stop-loss and take-profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy** - Adopt an interval thinking or buy on dips. It is expected that the core operating interval of the main contract IF2602 of IF is between 4524 and 4733 points; that of the main contract IH2602 of IH is between 2961 and 3098 points; that of the main contract IC2602 of IC is between 7815 and 8426 points; and that of the main contract IM2602 of IM is between 7746 and 8348 points [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy** - Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) cautiously [5]. 3. Factors to Watch - Fed policy trends and China's January monetary and credit data [3]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment theme of the US stock technology sector in 2026 may be "shrinking the circle", with hardware outperforming software and platforms, and the market favoring companies with a closed - loop business model and more robust financial conditions [3][5]. - In the short term, the risk of US stock earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate defensive value sectors or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic [15][18]. - Under regulatory guidance, Chinese stocks are moving forward steadily in a "slow - bull" market with a "slower slope". It is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped [19][23]. - The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The current situation may be close to that of 1997 from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC [37]. Summary by Related Contents US Stocks - **Market Performance and Catalysts**: The US stock market had a 3 - day consecutive decline this week. The more stringent assessment of the "quality" of the earnings reports of US stock technology giants was the "trigger" for this adjustment. Since last November, the market's narrative on AI investment has shifted from "arms race" to "return on investment" [5]. - **Earnings Report Analysis of Tech Giants**: The 7 Sisters' guidance on Capex expenditure in 2026 is generally aggressive, almost doubling that of 2025. Google's earnings report exceeded expectations, but the doubling of Capex still caused a decline after the report. Microsoft was under pressure due to the disproportionate increase in cloud business revenue and capital expenditure. The ROIC of the 7 Sisters in Q4 2025 continued to decline, but the decline rate and slope were still controllable [3][9][11]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the risk of earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate appropriate value sectors for defense or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support level for the Nasdaq. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic, with hardware outperforming the 7 Sisters and application software, and Google with a closed - loop business model being more favored [15][16][18]. - **AI Bubble Analysis**: The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. From the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC, the current situation may be close to that of 1997. It is necessary to dynamically track whether the "ROIC - WACC" at the level of US stock technology giants and indices shows a sharp convergence trend [37]. Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Influencing Factors**: This week, the overall Chinese stock market was volatile and weak, with low - level cyclical and high - dividend sectors leading the rise. The performance of Hong Kong stocks was relatively weaker than that of A - shares, mainly affected by three factors: rumors of VAT adjustment, the anxiety about the subversion of the software ecosystem by Anthropic Claude, and the weak performance of A - shares and US stocks [19][20]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced, focusing on high - quality performance lines and supplemented by low - level cyclical and dividend sectors. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped: technology assets with a clear industrial trend supported by policies, some new energy and chemical sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous sector supported by tight supply, strong structural demand, and catalyzed by interest rate cuts [23]. A - Share Earnings Forecast - The stocks in A - shares with an expected doubling of earnings growth are mainly concentrated in industries such as electronics, basic chemicals, biomedicine, and power equipment. For example, companies like Huisheng Bio, Kemeite Gas, and Xinqianglian are among them [24].