2026 年 01 月 27 日 【趋势强度】 短纤：短期趋势偏强 20260127 瓶片：短期趋势偏强 20260127 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6828 | 6778 | 50 | PF02-03 | 2 | ন | 6 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6826 | 6782 | 44 | PF03-04 | -50 | ウイ | -144 | | | 短纤2604 | 6876 | ୧୧୫୫ | 188 | PF主力基差 | -96 | -152 | 56 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 189740 | 174102 | 15638 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.730 | 6.630 | 100 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 193912 | 190049 | 3863 | 短纤产销率 | 57% | 11 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 PP：C3 原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6737 | 1.22% | 609818 | 22199 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -147 | | -176 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -41 | | -32 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6530 | | 6460 | | | | 华 东 | 6590 | | 6480 | | | | 华 南 | 6630 | | 6560 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 盘面再度反弹，上游预售压力暂不大，且中游继续开单，基差走弱，成交氛围昨日改善，中游成交为主。 下 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6935 | 1.02% | 683322 | -4043 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -155 | | -165 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6780 | | 6700 | | | | 东 华 | 6850 | | 6750 | | | | 华 南 | 6930 | | 6850 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货走强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，中游开单有部分改善。标品排产昨日维持，成交有 所改善，基差走弱。下游制品利润压缩，有所抵触高价。外盘报价上涨且 LL 货源偏少，远期进口 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 期货研究 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 樊园园 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 | fanyuanyuan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 动力煤基本面数据 | | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大同南郊动力煤Q5500 | 元/吨 | 564.0 | 0.0 | -62.0 | | 产地价格 | 鄂尔多斯伊金霍勒旗电煤Q5500 | 元/吨 | 526.0 | 1.0 | -43.0 | | | 动力煤价格:榆林烟煤末Q6000 | 元/吨 | 589.0 | 1.0 | -63.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 599.0 | 0.0 | -23.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | 520.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q4500 | 元/吨 | 750.0 | 6. ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：上游工厂减产，底部存支撑 多晶硅：关注会议相关情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | T 8,915 | T-1 95 | T-5 70 | T-22 135 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605成交量（手） Si2605持仓量（手） | 340,041 252,307 | 110,077 20,873 | -51,073 17,140 | -11,384 38,531 | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 51,280 | 560 | 775 | - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 13,705 | 262 | 1,470 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 41,290 | -1 | -3,281 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 棉花：盘整等待新的驱动 20260127 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,650 | -0.31% | 14580 | -0.48% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,515 | 0.05% | 20435 | -0.39% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 62.94 | -1.41% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 644,470 | 220,934 | 1,145,743 | -16,530 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 11,167 | -1,999 | 13,284 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变 ...

| | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,092 | 涨跌幅 2.04% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,162 | 涨跌幅 0.77% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,226 | 1.63% | 8,202 | -0.29% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,345 | 3.94% | 9,257 | -0.94% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,224 | 1.20% | 4,247 | 0.52% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.81 | -0.33% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 542,284 | 181691 | 485,983 | 9,767 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 364,906 | 159,518 | 810,901 | 45,666 | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | 368,466 | 202,804 | 297,957 ...

陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货强势走高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2602 | 4,364 | 2.92% | 4,336 | -0.64% | | 2602 | 1,831 | -467 | 2,469 | -736 | | | | 2603 | 4,340 | 3.98% | 4,298 | -0.97% | PG | 260 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers trend intensity ratings for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgments. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -1 indicating a weak bearish trend, 0 indicating a neutral trend, and 1 indicating a weak bullish trend. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It presents the latest market data, macro and industry news, and offers trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each commodity. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies, showing different trends and characteristics. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. Comex gold 2602 had a 2.11% increase. Gold trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: Approaching 100. Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51%. Silver trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: Followed the correction of gold and silver, but the trend did not reverse. Platinum trend intensity is 1 [26]. - **Palladium**: Looking for a bottom and then continuing the trend. Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, the price was on the strong side. Trend intensity is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: Showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillated around 24,000. Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trended weakly, with an intensity of 0; Casting aluminum alloy fluctuated at a high level, with an intensity of 1 [22]. - **Nickel**: The situation in Indonesia was uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia intensified, and the rise of ferronickel supported the price center. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: Although not directly mentioned in detail, it affected related products. For example, the price of PX was affected by the movement of upstream crude oil and naphtha prices [67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Traded in a range, affected by industry and capital factors. Trend intensity for both is 0 [55][56]. - **Power Coal**: Supply and demand tended to be weak, and the coal price stabilized with a slight upward exploration. [59] - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session opened lower, maintaining a high - volatility trend. Trend intensity is - 1. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the upward trend, with the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market reaching a low for the year. Trend intensity is - 1 [107]. Chemicals - **P - Xylene (PX)**: Supply was recovering, with a strong unilateral trend and a reverse spread in the month - spread. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **PTA**: Had a strong unilateral trend. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **MEG**: The trend remained strong. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **Rubber**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [74]. - **LLDPE**: The US dollar offers were scarce, and upstream quotes were rising. Trend intensity is - 1 [77]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material was strong, but profit repair was limited. Trend intensity is - 1 [80]. - **Paper Pulp**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [83]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. Trend intensity is - 1 [88]. - **Styrene**: Traded in a strong - side oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [92]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. Trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - **LPG**: Affected by short - term geopolitical factors. Trend intensity is 0. Propylene had strong demand support, and the spot price rose strongly. Trend intensity is 1 [98]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by multiple factors, traded in a high - level oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the upcoming implementation of the US 45Z subsidy, the oil - meal ratio was rising. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal might follow the adjustment. Trend intensity is - 1 [125]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price adjusted and oscillated. Trend intensity is 0 [125]. - **Corn**: Traded in a slightly upward oscillation. Trend intensity is 1 [128]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a low - level consolidation. Trend intensity is 0 [132]. - **Cotton**: Consolidated and awaited new drivers. Trend intensity is 1 [137]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season. Trend intensity is 0 [143]. - **Hogs**: The peak - season demand was lower than expected, and supply contradictions emerged. Trend intensity is - 2 [146]. - **Peanuts**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [150].

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铂：跟随黄金白银回调但趋势并未反转 | 12 | | 钯：找底后继续演绎 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...