1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction still lies in Indonesia [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost - support center shifting upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: The industry inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to this week's commodity sentiment [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The industry cost guidance price has been determined [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,840, down 2,590 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 13,670, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 554,444, down 28,080 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 287,657, down 42,500 from T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the nickel ore price formula, adjust the nickel ore production target, and there are issues such as corporate illegal land use and port monopoly in the Indonesian nickel industry [4][5][7]. - **Trend intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 132,920, up 140 from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,706, up 54,982 from T - 1; the open interest was 328,575, down 1,202 from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 1,580, down 9,640 from T - 1 [11]. - **Macro and industry news**: In January 2026, the estimated new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Toyota plans to increase global vehicle production by 10% to about 11.3 million in 2028 and increase hybrid vehicle production by about 30% to 6.7 million [12][14]. - **Trend intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2605 closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 105 from T - 1; the trading volume was 335,419 lots, up 19,855 from T - 1; the open interest was 277,011 lots, up 10,029 from T - 1. The PS2605 closing price was 49,285 yuan/ton, down 265 from T - 1 [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: In 2025, the wind power utilization rate was 94.3%, and the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 94.8%. The photovoltaic power generation utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet were lower than 90% [16]. - **Trend intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 0 [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate. The soybean No.1 spot is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures price will fluctuate [2][4]. - The callback range of corn futures prices is limited [2][7]. - The sugar futures prices will be sorted in a narrow range [2][10]. - The cotton futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend before the holiday [2][15]. - The egg futures prices will be adjusted in a volatile manner [2][21]. - The peak season for live pigs is not prosperous, and the release of the "backlog" has begun [2][25]. - The peanut futures prices will fluctuate [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of DCE soybean No.1 2605 and DCE soybean meal 2605 in the day - session were 4378 yuan/ton (-12, -0.27%) and 2735 yuan/ton (+5, +0.18%) respectively. The overnight CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1114.75 cents/bushel (+2.5, +0.22%). The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different changes [4]. - **News**: The US President said that China will increase soybean purchases, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the January supply - demand report on February 10. Analysts predict the US and global soybean ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean exports in January decreased compared with December but increased compared with last January. The Argentine soybean crop good - to - excellent rate decreased compared with a week ago but was higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [6]. 2. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of C2603 and C2605 were 2274 yuan/ton (+0.31%) and 2279 yuan/ton (+0.22%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The basis of the main 03 contract was 61 yuan/ton, and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread was - 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping and containerized shipping prices in ports had different changes. The prices of imported sorghum and barley from different origins and time periods were also provided [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [9]. 3. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.11 cents/pound (-0.16), the mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton (+10), and the futures main - contract price was 5228 yuan/ton (+4). The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton (+31), and the 59 - spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-8) [10]. - **News**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the Indian sugar production increased year - on - year, the Brazilian sugar exports decreased year - on - year, and the Chinese sugar imports increased in December. The CAOC predicted China's sugar production, consumption, and imports. The ISO predicted the global sugar supply surplus. The production data of Brazil, India, and Thailand were also provided [10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [13]. 4. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of CF2605 and CY2605 were 14580 yuan/ton (-0.21%) and 20405 yuan/ton (-0.20%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The spot prices of cotton in different regions also had different changes [16]. - **News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn quotation was stable, and the pre - holiday trading atmosphere was light. The ICE cotton futures continued to fall due to the rapid increase in warehouse receipts [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 1 [18]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of egg2603 and egg2604 were 2904 yuan/500kg (-0.34%) and 3165 yuan/500kg (+0.32%) respectively. The 3 - 4 spread was - 261 yuan/500kg, and the 4 - 9 spread was - 714 yuan/500kg. The spot prices of eggs in different regions and the prices of related feed and livestock had different changes [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [23]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 12430 yuan/ton (-450), 11650 yuan/ton (0), and 11860 yuan/ton (-200) respectively. The closing prices of different futures contracts also decreased year - on - year. The trading volume and positions of different contracts decreased. The basis and inter - period spreads of different contracts also had different changes [26]. - **News**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts for March contracts [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 2 [28]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The closing prices of PK603 and PK605 were 8054 yuan/ton (+0.07%) and 7918 yuan/ton (-0.03%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The basis of different varieties and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread were also provided [30]. - **News**: The peanut spot prices in different regions were stable, and the pre - holiday trading was basically ending in some areas [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [32].

2026 年 2 月 9 日 硅铁：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 锰硅：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 期现价差、近远月价差和跨品种价差均取期货收盘价 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、财联社：【两部门】将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%，完善电力市 场交易和价格机制 鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 2、铁合金在线：2 月 6 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5350，青海 5200-5300，甘肃 5250- 5300，内蒙 5300-5350；75#硅铁：陕西 5950-6000，宁夏 5750-5900，青海 5800-5900，甘肃 5750- 5850，内蒙 5850-5900（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 F ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,258 | 2.04% | 4,221 | -0.87% | | 2603 | 71,813 | 5,674 | 44,652 | -5,824 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,561 | 2.20% | 4,525 | -0.79% | PG | 2604 | 36,869 | 4,081 | 72,724 | 3,481 | | 期货市场 | | 260 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; the spot market for soybeans is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures prices may fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mostly closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising 0.2% for the third consecutive trading day, boosted by President Donald Trump's statement that China will increase soybean purchases [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,378 yuan/ton during the day session, down 12 yuan (-0.27%), and 4,392 yuan/ton at night, up 14 yuan (+0.32%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,735 yuan/ton during the day session, up 5 yuan (+0.18%), and 2,745 yuan/ton at night, up 7 yuan (+0.26%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1,114.75 cents/bushel, up 2.5 cents (+0.22%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 303.4 dollars/short ton, up 0.2 dollars (+0.07%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 to +10 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, it is 3,020 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +20 yuan; in South China, it is 3,060 - 3,170 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +30 yuan [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 5.9 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and the inventory was 89.95 million tons per week two trading days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 6, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising for the third consecutive day, driven by Trump's statement that China will increase soybean purchases to 20 million tons this year [3] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the January supply and demand report on February 10. Analysts predict that the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 347 million bushels, 3 million bushels lower than the government's January forecast; the global soybean ending stocks are expected to be 125.3 million tons, higher than the government's January forecast of 124.41 million tons [3] - Brazilian government data shows that Brazil's soybean exports in January were 1.88 million tons, down 44.5% from December but up 75.5% from January last year [3] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the good-to-excellent rate of Argentine soybean crops is 40%, down 9% from a week ago but still much higher than 20% in the same period last year [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 09 日 铂：震荡中修复 钯：跟随贵金属板块有所反弹 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 506. 00 | | -6. 35% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 527.99 | | -3. 38% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2097. 40 | | 6. 41% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2101. 40 | | 5. 85% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 410. 50 | | -7.27% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货纪金 | 386. 00 | | -11.26% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.705. 20 | | 3.05% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1,697.28 | | 3.78% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 09 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260209 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.234 | 5, 254 | -20 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.216 | 5. 274 | -58 | | 期货市场 | | 成交量(手) | 204. 913 | 201, 726 | +3, 187 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 287, 362 | 285, 275 | +2, 087 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 146. 447 | 142, 447 | +4. 000 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -17.872 | -21.332 | +3. 460 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 66 | 66 | 0 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -654 | -654 | 0 | | | 月差 | ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 胶版印刷纸：空单止盈离场 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | | | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5165 | 5171 | -6 | | | | 税前毛利 | -440 | -4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that the restocking of iron ore is nearing its end, and the demand outlook is weakening [1]. The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, suggesting a bearish view, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 the most bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan/ton (-1.04%). The持仓量 was 514,745 hands, a decrease of 10,368 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Imported ore prices, including Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jinbuba fines (61%), and Super Special fines (56.5%), all declined. The prices of domestic ore from Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines increased by 1.5 yuan/ton, while against Jinbuba fines decreased by 0.6 yuan/ton. The spreads I2605 - I2609 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged. The spreads between different ore types also changed slightly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [1]. - Multiple real - estate enterprise representatives stated that most companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a bearish sentiment [2].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Confirmation of off - season during peak season and the start of the release of the "reservoir" for the pig industry [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12,430 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; Sichuan spot price is 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong spot price is 11,860 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of live - hog 2603 is 10,860 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; live - hog 2605 is 11,625 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; live - hog 2607 is 12,195 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live - hog 2603, trading volume is 28,725 lots, down 8,149 lots, and open interest is 65,988 lots, down 8,876 lots; for live - hog 2605, trading volume is 48,568 lots, down 19,829 lots, and open interest is 143,321 lots, down 1,148 lots; for live - hog 2607, trading volume is 4,422 lots, down 3,540 lots, and open interest is 50,102 lots, down 154 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2603 is 1,570 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan; the basis of live - hog 2605 is 805 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the basis of live - hog 2607 is 235 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spread between live - hog 2603 and 2605 is - 765 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spread between live - hog 2605 and 2607 is - 570 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3. Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view [4]