2025年08月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆冲高回落，连粕跟随回落 | 4 | | 豆一：跟随豆类，回落震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：弱势运行 | 6 | | 白糖：印度恢复性增产 | 7 | | 棉花：注意外部市场影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货看涨预期落空 | 9 | | 生猪：近端现货压力略超预期 | 10 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,064 | 涨跌幅 2.56% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,996 | 涨跌幅 -0.75% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core View: The report analyzes the July stock index basis market. In the short - term, the risk preference in the futures market has declined, and the short - side power has increased marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, the index is expected to rise and the discount to converge this year, but the subsequent upward momentum may weaken, and the discount convergence may slow down [5][22] Group 2: Recent Basis Review - Market Trends: In July, the market revolved around domestic and overseas mainlines. Domestically, the "anti - involution" concept boosted the market, which then cooled down. Overseas, the US tariff negotiations affected the dollar index and domestic assets. The market sentiment was mainly optimistic, with high trading volume and continuous inflow of leveraged funds. Most broad - based indices had strong monthly lines, and small - and micro - cap stocks were still strong, while large - cap indices were dragged down by the banking sector [5][6] - Basis Changes: By July 31, 2025, the quarterly contract annualized basis rates of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 1.19%, - 2.02%, - 9.65%, and - 11.6% respectively. IH, IF, and IC were basically flat compared to the end of last month, and the IM discount slightly converged. The basis support weakened in July, and the basis turned down earlier than the index. The intraday 1 - minute frequency basis divergence among varieties increased, indicating a decline in risk preference [8][15] - Product - side Situation: Index - related products saw net outflows, with the scale of four broad - based index ETFs and A500ETF and index - enhanced products declining. The new issuance of index - enhanced products continued. The positions of private - equity neutral strategies increased, and the short - side power strengthened marginally. The CTA strategy maintained a relatively high net long position in stock index futures and was optimistic about the index and futures [17][18] - Strategy Performance: In July, the excess return of long - side substitution relative to the index was about 1%. The short - side hedging cost of IC and IM current - month contracts was lower than that of quarterly contracts by about 0.5%. The inter - period spread was affected by contract roll - over and declined at the end of the month [21] Group 3: Long - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM long - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 3.6%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and - 4.6% respectively [26] Group 4: Short - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM short - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 0.5%, - 0.3%, 2.0%, and - 0.1% respectively [33]

Report Summary Core View The stock index options showed an upward movement with a decreasing volatility, and the implied volatility premium narrowed [1]. Market Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2790.73, up 21.34 points, with a trading volume of 41.26 billion hands, a decrease of 0.70 billion hands. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4103.45, up 32.75 points, with a trading volume of 178.85 billion hands, an increase of 16.58 billion hands. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6787.48, up 47.79 points, with a trading volume of 223.72 billion hands, an increase of 10.23 billion hands [2]. - **ETFs**: The Shanghai Composite 50 ETF closed at 2.912, up 0.022, with a trading volume of 7.24 billion hands, an increase of 2.44 billion hands. The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF closed at 4.183, up 0.031, with a trading volume of 5.48 billion hands, an increase of 1.13 billion hands [2]. Option Market Statistics - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options was 30,577, an increase of 280, and the open interest was 72,824, a decrease of 1,212. The trading volume of CSI 300 Index Options was 78,143, an increase of 5,831, and the open interest was 205,892, an increase of 668 [2]. - **Volatility and PCR**: The ATM-IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options was 11.59%, a decrease of 0.57%, and the VL-PCR was 48.61%, and the OI-PCR was 57.04%. The ATM-IV of CSI 300 Index Options was 11.16%, a decrease of 1.41%, and the VL-PCR was 52.69%, and the OI-PCR was 70.72% [2][5]. Individual Option Analysis The report provides detailed analysis and charts for various options, including Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, CSI 1000 Index Options, and multiple ETF options, covering aspects such as PCR, skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [8][12][15].

二 〇 二 因子与指数投资揭秘系列二十八：沪铜基本面 与量价择时多因子模型研究 五 年 度 国 泰 君 安 期 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan010359@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 高宇飞（联系人） | 从业资格号：F03124155 | gaoyufei028920@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 沪铜作为重要的有色金属期货品种，其价格波动受宏观经济、供需关系、市场情绪等多重因素影响。构 建有效的择时因子框架，旨在通过量化手段识别价格趋势的转折点，为交易决策提供科学依据。这一框架不 仅适用于短线交易，也能为中长线配置提供参考，帮助投资者在复杂市场中捕捉超额收益。基本面与宏观量 化因子涵盖了库存、利润、美元指数、PMI 等方向的 14 个因子，量价因子包括日内动量、中值双均线、考 夫曼均线等 7 个因子。通过回测和筛选，设定回测时间、手续费、杠杆等参数，以简单等权相加的方式组合 因子，输出趋势强度信号。 货 研 究 所 目前该模型总共包含 9 个基本面与宏观量化因子和 7 个量价因子。其中，基本面与宏观量化因子包括： 1.加工利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 5, 2025, including the bias towards strong or weak oscillations, and provides resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 4, 2025, the stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly lower and then rising. The broader market also opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext 50 leading the gains. A - share trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of new A - share accounts in July increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Brokerage institutions are generally optimistic about the market outlook [13][15][16]. - On August 4, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures both opened higher, with the ten - year showing a slight upward trend and the thirty - year continuing to rebound. The central bank conducted 5448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 490 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, reaching a new high in July [35][39][40]. - On August 4, 2025, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.85% and COMEX silver futures up 1.40%. International oil prices fluctuated downward, with the U.S. oil main contract down 1.62% and the Brent crude main contract down 1.38%. London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 0.99%, LME copper up 0.81%, and LME nickel up 0.79%. The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose slightly [9][10][12]. 2. Futures Market Forecast for August 5, 2025 Stock Index Futures - IF2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 4087 and 4100 points and support levels at 4052 and 4035 points [2]. - IH2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 2785 and 2800 points and support levels at 2770 and 2763 points [2]. - IC2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6215 and 6275 points and support levels at 6169 and 6130 points [2]. - IM2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6700 and 6750 points and support levels at 6642 and 6590 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 108.60 and 108.65 yuan and support levels at 108.43 and 108.37 yuan [2]. - The thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 119.6 and 120.0 yuan, with support levels at 119.1 and 118.9 yuan [2]. Precious Metal Futures - The gold futures AU2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 786.8 and 791.2 yuan/gram, with support levels at 781.8 and 778.5 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 9100 and 9166 yuan/kg, with support levels at 9008 and 8985 yuan/kg [3]. Base Metal Futures - The copper futures CU2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78200 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78600 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum futures AL2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 20370 and 20300 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 20540 and 20600 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures AO2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 3162 and 3121 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3247 and 3274 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures ZN2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 22350 and 22420 yuan/ton and support levels at 22220 and 22130 yuan/ton [3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The industrial silicon futures SI2511 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 8220 and 8100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 8450 and 8500 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures PS2511 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support levels at 47700 and 47100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 49400 and 50400 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures LC2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range, with support levels at 67900 and 66900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 71100 and 72200 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar futures RB2510 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 3174 and 3160 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 3224 and 3236 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures HC2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 3449 and 3473 yuan/ton and support levels at 3400 and 3366 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 800 and 804 yuan/ton, with support levels at 790 and 787 yuan/ton [4]. - The coking coal futures JM2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1120 and 1092 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1166 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - The glass futures FG509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1050 and 1032 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1102 and 1112 yuan/ton [4]. - The soda ash futures SA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1225 and 1206 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1265 and 1285 yuan/ton [6]. - The crude oil futures SC2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 514 and 519 yuan/barrel [6]. - The PTA futures TA509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 4698 and 4720 yuan/ton [6]. - The PVC futures V2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4922 and 4900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 5020 and 5046 yuan/ton [6]. - The methanol futures MA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 2372 and 2359 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2385 and 2393 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Futures - The soybean meal futures M2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 3050 and 3071 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3014 and 3000 yuan/ton [6]. - The palm oil futures P2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 8926 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 8800 and 8770 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Macro - economic Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For overseas remittances over 5000 yuan or the equivalent of 1000 US dollars, the remitter's identity needs to be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards over 10,000 yuan at one time [7]. - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, the MLF had a net investment of 100 billion yuan, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 188 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net investment of 200 billion yuan. There were no open - market treasury bond transactions in July [7]. - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%, and imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [7]. - Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. Wang Qing believes that the new social financing in July will be about 1.7 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale year - on - year increase from the previous month. It is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements again around the end of the third quarter [8]. - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [8]. - Shanghai has issued policies to support enterprises in basic research, with a maximum one - time subsidy of 10 million yuan and tax incentives for basic research [8]. - Hainan has proposed 20 specific measures to accelerate the cultivation of three future industries: seed industry, deep - sea, and aerospace, and to strengthen tropical characteristic high - efficiency agriculture. The goal is that by 2027, the added value of the four leading industries will account for about 70% of GDP [8]. - U.S. President Trump said that India is reselling a large amount of Russian oil in the open market for huge profits and will significantly increase the tariffs imposed on India [9]. - The EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures against the U.S. that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 for six months and continue to cooperate with the U.S. to finalize a joint statement on trade [9]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts within the year are still an appropriate adjustment [9].

2025 年 8 月 5 日 LPG：进口成本下行 丙烯：供需格局宽松，短期弱势震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,896 | -1.74% | 3,868 | -0.72% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,309 | -2.16% | 4,281 | -0.65% | | | PL2601 | 6,481 | 0.11% | 6,472 | -0.14% | | | PL2602 | 6,537 昨日成交 | -0.37% 较前日变动 | 6,532 昨日持仓 | -0.08% 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 92,565 | 25516 | 96,122 | 6161 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 31,664 | 12155 | 70,882 | 5252 | | | PL2601 | 2,137 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Different commodities show different trends such as upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, influenced by factors like macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [3][6]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payroll data is weak, with positive price trends. For example, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.42 with a daily increase of 1.39%, and the night - session closing price was 784.50 with a 0.52% increase [7][8]. - **Silver**: Shows a slight rebound [7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price. However, Trump's tariff policy on semi - finished copper products may impact the market. The trend strength is neutral [12][14]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an oscillatory band. Trump's plan to fill Fed理事 vacancies may affect the market, with a neutral trend strength [15]. - **Lead**: Continuous reduction in inventory limits price decline, with a neutral trend strength [18]. - **Tin**: Moves within an oscillatory range, with a slightly bearish trend strength [20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within an oscillatory band; Alumina shows a weakening oscillatory trend; Casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, all with neutral trend strengths [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Intensified multi - short competition leads to narrow - range oscillations; Stainless steel returns to fundamentals after the macro - factor fades, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, both with neutral trend strengths [27][28][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price oscillates, with a neutral trend strength [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In a weak pattern, with a bearish trend strength [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term sentiment cools down, and it's necessary to pay attention to news stimuli, with a neutral trend strength [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [43][44][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [48][50]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [51][54]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillates weakly and gives downward concessions; PTA shows a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differences; MEG oscillates unilaterally [61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: With repeated macro - sentiment, it's advisable to mainly build long positions at low levels [62]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal oscillates strongly [64]. - **Soybean**: Rebounds and oscillates [64]. - **Corn**: Runs weakly [66]. - **Sugar**: Narrowly consolidates [67]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [68]. - **Egg**: The bullish expectation for the spot price is dashed, and market sentiment collapses [70]. - **Live Pig**: Maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The four major stock index futures contracts all rose on August 4, 2025. The overall trend of stock index futures is in a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of the underlying indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on August 4, with increases of 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively. The corresponding futures contracts also rose, with IF rising 0.52%, IH rising 0.54%, IC rising 0.92%, and IM rising 1.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22,338 lots, 12,314 lots, 11,855 lots, and 23,743 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7,234 lots, 4,835 lots, 3,294 lots, and 1,172 lots respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies, with some being positive and some negative, reflecting different market expectations [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most futures contracts, both long and short positions of the top 20 members showed certain changes. For example, in the IF2508 contract, the long - position increase was - 3303, and the net long - position change was - 6233; the short - position increase was - 2978, and the net short - position change was - 5185 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] - **Important Drivers**: The EU will suspend two trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. The A - share market showed an upward trend on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.5%. The market volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, premiums, processing fees, and inventory levels, among other aspects. It presents the changes in these data compared to previous trading days, weeks, months, and quarters [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,525, down 90 from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,570, down 2. Trading volumes and open interests showed various changes compared to different time - points in the past [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,225, down 3 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests also had significant changes over different time intervals [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,865, down 95 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests decreased compared to previous periods [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 547,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 46,600 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,274, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The three - place inventory totaled 31,346, a decrease of 2,809 from the previous trading day [1]. 3.3 Cost and Profit - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,751.59, down 38.75 from the previous trading day. The import profit and loss of aluminum showed different changes in spot and 3M contracts [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 249, with a certain change compared to the previous trading day [1]. 3.4 Premiums and Processing Fees - **Premiums**: The Shanghai Bonded Area Premium was 108, with no change from the previous trading day; the EU Rotterdam aluminum ingot Premium (MB) was 200.0, with no change [1]. - **Processing Fees**: The Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 290, an increase of 10 from the previous trading day; the Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee was 150, with no change [1]. 3.5 Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend; the soybean No.1 futures showed a rebound and oscillation trend [1]. - On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering, but the abundant global supply, including the Brazilian soybean harvest and strong US soybean production prospects, continued to suppress the upward momentum of soybean prices. Concerns about Sino - US trade tensions also limited market sentiment. The US soybean crop was still in good condition in early August, and the short - term weather in the US Midwest was expected to be mild and dry, with more mild and rainy weather possible in the next 6 - 15 days. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2509 closed at 4117 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4133 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.17%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3024 yuan/ton during the day session, up 20 yuan (+0.67%), and 3045 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 994.5 cents per bushel, up 6.5 cents (+0.66%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.1 dollars per short - ton, up 4.7 dollars (+1.68%) [1]. 2. Spot Prices - In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 2940 - 2960 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the futures contract M2509 and M2601, and price changes were mostly flat or up by 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the price was 2920 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, with different basis levels for different contract months [1]. - In South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis adjustments for different contract months [1]. 3. Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 15.5 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory data for the previous week was not available, and the inventory two weeks ago was 96.1 million tons [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was +1, and that of soybean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3].