2026 年 1 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货产区稳定、销区补涨，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4375 +24（+0.55%） | 4382 +7（+0.16%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2782 +16（+0.58%） | 2793 +16（+0.58%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1074.75 +7.25（+0.68%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 297.6 +3.8（+1.29%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） 平； | 3120～3140， 较昨持平； 现货M2605+440， 平； 3月M2605+320/+350/+360/+370/+380/+390； ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The expectation of the off - season after the festival for eggs remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Egg 2602 contract: The closing price is 3,033 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.04%. The trading volume decreased by 1,215, and the open interest decreased by 2,463 [1] - Egg 2603 contract: The closing price is 3,048 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 88,282, and the open interest decreased by 7,933 [1] - **Spread Data** - Egg 2 - 3 spread: The latest value is - 15, compared to 3 on the previous day [1] - Egg 3 - 9 spread: The latest value is - 831, compared to - 803 on the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data** - Liaoning spot price: The latest is 4.00 yuan/jin, compared to 3.90 yuan/jin on the previous day [1] - Hebei spot price: The latest is 3.62 yuan/jin, compared to 3.51 yuan/jin on the previous day [1] - Shanxi spot price: The latest is 4.00 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day [1] - Hubei spot price: The latest is 4.00 yuan/jin, compared to 3.93 yuan/jin on the previous day [1] - **Industrial Chain Data** - Corn spot price: The latest is 2,377 yuan/ton, compared to 2,379 yuan/ton on the previous day [1] - Soybean meal spot price: The latest is 3,120 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [1] - Henan pig price: The latest is 12.98 yuan/kg, compared to 13.18 yuan/kg on the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range in the [-2, 2] integer interval. The strength levels are classified as weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, strong, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.0 | -0.63% | | | I2605 | | 783.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 564,613 | -6,440 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 877.0 | 879.0 | -2.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 794.0 | 796.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 746.0 | 748.0 | -2.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 673.0 | 675.0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 956. ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 铂：跟随抬升 钯：警惕补涨 产 业 服 务 研 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 694. 80 | | -1.54% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 670. 45 | | -2.22% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2705. 10 | | 2. 27% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2704. 10 | | 2. 29% | | | | 铝金期货2606 | 504. 00 | | -3.63% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 459.00 | | -4.77% | | | | 纽约包主连(前日) | 2.095. 50 | | 7. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 2.059.50 | | 6.60% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | ...

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 25605 | 2.63% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3358.5 | 0.22% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 284497 | 28823 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 11349 | -5211 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118199 | -747 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 233157 | -1107 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 5 | -30 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -30.81 | -4.38 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and the supply contradiction is expanding [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 12,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; Sichuan spot price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. For futures, the price of pig 2603 is 11,270 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; pig 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, unchanged; pig 2607 is 12,370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2603 is 51,067 lots, down 18,603 lots, and the open interest is 121,223 lots, down 6,419 lots; pig 2605 has a trading volume of 31,968 lots, down 1,260 lots, and an open interest of 118,843 lots, up 3,128 lots; pig 2607 has a trading volume of 6,225 lots, down 307 lots, and an open interest of 46,367 lots, down 216 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2603 is 1,710 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan; pig 2605 is 1,285 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; pig 2607 is 610 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan. The spread between pig 3 - 5 is -425 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; between pig 5 - 7 is -675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2].

Report Title - The report is titled "Thermal Coal: Supply and Demand Tend to Weaken, Coal Prices Rise Slightly" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand of thermal coal tend to weaken, and coal prices rise slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and subsequent market supply - demand changes need to be closely monitored [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - **产地价格**：大同南郊动力煤Q5500为568元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降56元/吨；鄂尔多斯伊金霍勒旗电煤Q5500为531元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降39元/吨；榆林烟煤末Q6000为595元/吨，环比涨3元/吨，同比降58元/吨 [2] - **港口价格**：秦港山西产Q5500为607元/吨，环比涨5元/吨，同比降63元/吨；秦港山西产Q5000为525元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降56元/吨；秦港山西产Q4500为750元/吨，环比涨1元/吨，同比降60元/吨 [2] - **海外价格**：印尼FOB Q3800为49.5美元/吨，环比持平，同比降0.5美元/吨；澳大利亚FOB Q5500为74.6美元/吨，环比持平，同比降4.4美元/吨 [2] - **1月长协价格**：港口Q5500为684元/吨，环比降10元/吨，同比降9元/吨；山西Q5500为540元/吨，环比降8元/吨；陕西Q5500为483元/吨，环比降13元/吨；蒙西Q5500为453元/吨，环比降7元/吨 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **期货研究** - 1月28日港口市场价格坚挺，上游报价小幅探涨，下游询盘少、接受度不高，成交价格重心提升慢。煤矿价格上涨、港口发运倒挂、电厂日耗高位支撑上游挺价，但下游需求未明显改善，预计价格上涨空间有限。产地动力煤市场稳中偏强，部分煤矿停产致供应收紧，终端及站台刚需补库，大集团和港口价格上扬带动贸易商拉运情绪，推动价格上行 [3] - 2025年12月全国原煤产量环比增2.40%，同比降1.0%，是2025年7月以来连续第六个月同比下降，但环比连续第二个月增长。12月日均产量1410万吨，较11月减13万吨，较去年同期减5.6万吨。2025年全年累计原煤产量483178万吨，同比增1.2% [3] - 2025年12月全国进口煤炭5859.7万吨，同比增11.94%，环比增33.01%。进口煤超预期是因印尼出口关税政策调整致海外供应商“抢出口”，以及年末国内供应收紧、内贸煤价格下跌使海外煤有进口优势 [3][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is 1 [5]

| | 东北收购均价 | 元/吨 | 昨日价格 | | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | n a | | | | 重要现货 | 锦州平仓 | 元/吨 | | 2,340 | -10 | | | 价 格 | 华北收购均价 | 元/吨 | | n a | 0 | | | | 广东蛇口 | 元/吨 | | 2,440 | 0 | | | | 山东玉米淀粉价格 元/吨 | | | 2,770 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌% | | | C2603 | 元/吨 | 2,274 | -0.52 | 2,270 | -0.18 | | | C2605 | 元/吨 | 2,279 | -0.13 | 2,277 | -0.09 | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | C2603 | 手 | 562,766 | 133908 | 956,567 | -88,239 | | | C2605 | 手 | 28 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The marginal driving force of stock index futures is limited, and it remains in a volatile pattern. On January 28, the monthly contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed gains and losses. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF and IH increased, while those of IC and IM decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On January 28, IF rose 0.08%, IH fell 0.03%, IC rose 0.66%, and IM rose 0.22%. The closing prices and price - change percentages of various contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are detailed in the table [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, with decreases of 62 lots, 4488 lots, 40713 lots, and 68320 lots respectively. The total positions of IF and IH increased by 15622 lots and 3905 lots respectively, while those of IC and IM decreased by 904 lots and 15637 lots respectively [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing the differences between futures prices and spot prices [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided, including net changes in some contracts [5]. 3.2. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Quantitative Fund News**: There are rumors that regulatory authorities plan to implement the 'T + 3' system for the program trading of major quantitative funds, but many billion - level quantitative private equity managers said they have not received relevant requirements [6]. - **Fed Policy Expectations**: As the expectation that BlackRock's chief investment officer Rick Rieder may replace Powell grows, some futures and options traders are betting on the Fed to turn dovish. Rieder said earlier this month that the Fed's benchmark interest rate should be lowered from the current 3.5% - 3.75% range to 3% [6]. - **Stock Market Performance**: The A - share market showed narrow fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%. The turnover of A - shares reached 2.99 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.58%, reaching a 4 - and - a - half - year high [6][7].

2026 年 1 月 29 日 胶版印刷纸：空单持有，3-4 反套 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/28 | 2026/1/27 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5207 | 5207 | 0 | | | | 税前毛利 | -482 | -482 | 0 | | 成本利润 | | 不含税收入 | 4 ...