Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs saw price fluctuations. Group slaughter schedules returned to normal, with farmers reluctant to sell, resulting in a loose supply. Post - festival slaughter volume decreased, but some second - fattening operations actively entered the market. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. In the futures market, prices were weak, and the basis of the LH2511 contract changed from negative to positive [1][2] - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is on the rise, and demand is decreasing. The inventory cycle will shift from inventory accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still searching for a bottom. For the LH2511 futures contract, attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review (10.13 - 10.19) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 20.4 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan rose from 11.13 yuan/kg last week to 11.38 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,566 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight was 124.67KG, a 0.17% increase from last week [1] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,020 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,050 yuan/ton (compared to 11,320 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 330 yuan/ton (compared to - 190 yuan/ton last week) [2] 2. Market Outlook (10.20 - 10.26) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The inventory cycle is shifting from accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract price closed at 11,050 yuan/ton on October 17th. With group incremental slaughter and second - fattening re - entering the market, the inventory cycle is still in the passive accumulation stage. The 11 - month contract is still at a premium near delivery. Attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - This week's basis was 330 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread was - 620 yuan/ton [10] - In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; pork imports were 81,700 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month decrease [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut market is facing supply pressure. In the spot market, peanut prices are weak, and in the futures market, peanuts are facing short - term supply pressure with near - month contracts being weak [1][2]. - The supply concentration period in peanut production areas is expected to be postponed to early November. The Northeast market is expected to be stable with a slight weak correction, while the Henan market will seek cost - effective advantages [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Peanut Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of October 16, the average price of national general peanuts was 4.18 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin and a decline of 0.48%. The supply pressure will be significantly released as wheat - stubble peanuts are concentrated on the market. The terminal procurement demand for peanut food and peanut oil has weakened [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of October 17, peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main peanut contract (PK2601) was 8096 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7858 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7928 yuan/ton (the previous week's closing was 7844 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Peanut Market Outlook - **Production Areas**: The harvest progress of farmers in Henan is about 80%, and the listing time is expected to be postponed to mid - October. Farmers in the Northeast have basically completed the harvest, and the national supply concentration period is expected to be postponed to early November. The price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts has widened [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pay attention to the weather in Henan. The continuous rainy weather has affected the drying of new peanuts, causing the futures price to rise and then fall. The concentrated listing of Northeast Baisha peanuts may put pressure on prices again [2]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts and Sudan refined peanuts from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread charts show its changes from 2021 - 2025, and the data for 2025 shows a certain trend [6][7]. 3.4 Price Data - The price of Baisha in Zhumadian, Henan was basically flat compared with last week; the price of Liaoning 308 increased by about 240 yuan/ton compared with last week, a rise of 2.98%; the price of Xin Dahua peanuts in Henan decreased by about 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, a decline of 1.22% [8]. - The arrival volume of 6 oil - peanut markets was about 0.75 tons, a week - on - week decline of 15.81% and a year - on - year increase of 0.47%; the arrival volume of 14 commercial - peanut markets was about 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decline of 4.97% and a year - on - year decline of 22.92% [10]. 3.5 Supply There are charts showing the arrival volume of the domestic market and the import volume of peanuts (the import volume data has stopped updating) [14][15]. 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 107.94% and a year - on - year decline of 78.4% [16]. - The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14400 - 15200 yuan/ton, with stable factory quotes but weak terminal consumption [16]. - The mainstream quotation of peanut meal was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, with stable quotes and light trading [16]. - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was - 126.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.42 yuan/ton compared with last week [16]. - The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 4.14%, a decrease of 0.41% compared with last week and 8.18% compared with last year [16]. - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 0.7 tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.92% and a year - on - year decline of 66.38% [16]. 3.7 Inventory There are charts showing the peanut inventory and peanut oil inventory of oil mills from different production seasons [20].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 工业硅：供需存走弱预期 多晶硅：政策逻辑仍存，关注落地节点 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格偏弱震荡，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面震荡偏强，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面呈偏弱震荡，上游西北工厂复产使得库存累库，周五收于 8430 元/ 吨。现货市场价格有所下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8750 元/吨（环比-100），内蒙 99 硅报价 8950 元/ 吨(环比-50)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面震荡偏强运行，市场交易政策出台预期逻辑，周五盘面收于 52340 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价持续坚挺，下游仍处于观望状态，暂无大量采购补库。 多晶硅需求端，硅片排产超预期环增。短期硅片库存相对偏低，硅片端挺价涨价，据咨询商统计硅片 10 月份排产环比增加，且后续大概率生产会超配额。此外，据资讯商统计，本轮硅片企业对多晶硅原料的补库 较多，平均原料库存或有接近 2-3 个月水平，短期内硅片对采购持观望态度，关注下周及月底的实际采购 补 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 棉花：预计期价短期偏震荡 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 截至 10 月 17 日当周，ICE 棉花先跌后涨，周初 ICE 棉花延续前两周的弱势，最低触及 62.71 美分/ 磅，在缺乏美国农业部数据指引的情况下，ICE 棉花在技术性卖压的影响下，直到出现商业买盘的支撑后 下跌势头才告一段落，另外，ICE 棉花受外部市场因素影响，主要受市场对国际经贸形势的情绪影响。 国内棉花期货企稳反弹，一方面因新疆籽棉价格稳定，另一方面，郑棉期货的走势也受到外部市场情 绪影响。短期来看，新棉大量上市和轧花厂套保意愿较强将继续限制郑棉期货的反弹动能，不过，高基差 和绝对价格相对不高将对郑棉期货构成支撑。所以，从基本面来看，认为郑棉期货短期内将维持窄幅震荡 走势，短期内市场波动可能主要还是来自于当前复杂的国际经贸形势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 （正文） 1. 行情数据 表 1:棉花、棉纱期货数据 | ICE棉花主连 | 64.00 | 64.50 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月19日 CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：价格维持低位，FU相对偏强 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格持续下跌，目前已经来到年内低点。高硫方面，俄罗斯出口下降的影响仍然存在，但随着时间推移，10月底大部分炼厂将 计划结束检修，彼时如果俄罗斯炼厂开工率出现修复， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, and its valuation is also high. The trend remains weak, but due to many important macro - events recently, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium - term, there is a trend of inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices both domestically and internationally over the years, including basis trends of different manufacturers and monthly spreads such as 5 - 9, 1 - 5, etc., as well as domestic and international spot price trends of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20] 2. Domestic Supply 2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity in 2025 continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 million tons, with many enterprises having new capacity or device resumption [24] 2.2 Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including different types such as normal maintenance, policy - based maintenance, fault - based maintenance, and loss (cost) - based maintenance. The loss of production volume varies among different enterprises [27] 2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, and production volume of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [28][29] 2.4 Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi and historical cost trends of different production processes of urea [31] 2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, and the report shows the profit trends of different production processes of urea over the years [36] 2.6 Net Import (Export) - After the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 to 2025 [42] 3. Domestic Demand 3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, with strong demand in some months. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [48][51][55] 3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [57] - **Melamine**: It shows the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine [58][59][60] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for wood - based panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but wood - based panel exports are resilient. The report provides relevant export and real - estate construction and completion data [61][62] 4. Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1615400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, 2025 (week 42), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.47% [63][66] 5. International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [69][70][71][72][73]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Hedging Weekly Report - Report Date: October 17, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite continued to decline this week, with broad - based indexes falling on shrinking volume, and the market style tilted towards large - cap value. The Shanghai Composite 50 index fell only 0.24% this week, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 tumbled nearly 5%, and the Sci - tech Innovation and ChiNext sectors continued to decline, with a weekly decline of nearly 6% [4]. - The basis continued its high - volatility pattern this week. As of Friday, the basis of each variety decreased compared with last week. The premium of IH narrowed to about 0.6%, the annualized discounts of IF and IC widened to about 2.6% and 12% respectively, and the discount of IM was basically the same as last week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Futures Basis Data**: Provided the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including last week's basis, this week's basis, basis changes, and index - enhanced annualized returns. For example, in the IF2510 contract, the basis changed from - 3.03 last week to 25.37 this week, with a change of 28.40 [2]. - **Market Conditions and Basis Analysis**: After the external relations fluctuated last weekend, the A - share market showed a complex trend. The overall market risk appetite declined, and the basis was highly volatile. The term structure of the remaining contracts was flat after the October contracts expired, and the hedging costs were similar [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: This week, the average daily trading volume of IH was 78,080 contracts, a 17.0% increase from the previous week, and the open interest was 97,922 contracts, a 7.4% decrease. Similar data were provided for IF, IC, and IM [5]. - **Basis after Considering Dividends**: Presented the basis data after considering dividends for different contracts of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, basis after considering dividends, expected total dividend points, and annualized premium/discount rates [6]. 2. Hedging Profit and Loss - **Hedging Profit and Loss Data**: Provided the hedging profit and loss data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for last week and this week. For example, the hedging profit and loss of the IF2510 contract changed from - 3.26 last week to - 28.40 this week [11]. - **Hedging Profit and Loss Charts**: Presented the 60 - trading - day cumulative hedging profit and loss charts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [10].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last weekend, external relations fluctuated, with two - way sanctions escalating and then warming up. The A - share market opened sharply lower and then rebounded on Monday, followed by intensified two - way fluctuations. The trading volume of the entire A - share market shrank below 2 trillion for the first time since August. The margin balance remained firm with daily small net inflows, but over - heated sentiment could lead to a run - on style correction. Overseas banking risks resurfaced, causing a decline in risk appetite and impacts on the domestic market. Powell's dovish speech strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in October. Overall, the market risk preference continued to decline, broad - based indexes fell with shrinking volume, and the market style tilted towards large - cap value. [2] - This week, the basis continued to be highly volatile. As of Friday, the basis of each variety declined compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to about 0.6%, and the annualized discounts of IF and IC widened to about 2.6% and 12% respectively, while the discount of IM was basically the same as last week. The October contract expired, and the term structure of the remaining contracts was flat with similar hedging costs. [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will strengthen next week, while the basis of IM will weaken. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation This Week - A - share market: Opened sharply lower and rebounded on Monday, with intensified two - way fluctuations later. The trading volume shrank below 2 trillion for the first time since August. The margin balance had daily small net inflows, and over - heated sentiment might cause a correction. [2] - Overseas market: Banking risks resurfaced, leading to a decline in risk appetite, a rise in gold prices above $4300, an increase in US Treasury yields, and a surge in VIX, which also affected the domestic market. [2] - Market style: Tilted towards large - cap value. The weekly decline of the Shanghai Composite 50 was only 0.24%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell nearly 5%, and the ChiNext and STAR Market continued to decline by nearly 6%. [2] - Basis situation: Highly volatile. The premium of IH narrowed to about 0.6%, the annualized discounts of IF and IC widened to about 2.6% and 12% respectively, and the discount of IM was basically unchanged. The October contract expired, and the term structure of the remaining contracts was flat with similar hedging costs. [2] 3.2 Basis Movement Prediction for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will strengthen, while the basis of IM will weaken. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The market is fluctuating weakly, implied volatility is rising. Consider timing to buy put options for protection [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Trading Overview - The total daily average trading volume of all options is 13.5785 million lots, with a total open interest of 10.3924 million lots and a total turnover of 12.963624 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Option Volatility - The ATM - IV, IV weekly change, 20HV, HV weekly change, Skew, Skew weekly change, VIX, and VIX change of various options are presented in Table 2. For example, the ATM - IV of SSE 50 Index Option is 17.54%, with an IV weekly change of 2.29% [3]. 3.3 Option Liquidity - There are multiple charts showing the changes in total trading volume, total open interest, total turnover, total trading market value, and total open - interest market value of financial options, as well as the trading volume and open - interest proportions of each option variety [4][6][7][8]. 3.4 Option Volatility Level - Last week, there was a divergence between at - the - money implied volatility and historical volatility for various options. The current at - the - money implied volatility and the correlation coefficient between the underlying asset and at - the - money implied volatility of each option are provided. For instance, for SSE 50 Index Option, the current at - the - money implied volatility is 17.54%, and the correlation coefficient is - 79.60% [9]. 3.5 Option Market Bull - Bear Sentiment - The Put - Call - Ratio (PCR) indicator of options can reflect market bull - bear sentiment. There are multiple charts showing the PCR trends and daily环比 incremental percentages of various options [35][36]. 3.6 Market Support and Resistance Level Information - The key support and resistance levels of various option underlying assets are provided. For example, the key support level of SSE 50 Index is 3000, and the resistance level is 3000; the key support level of CSI 1000 Index is 7300, and the resistance level is 7500 [50].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated October 17, 2025, covering various metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver's spot contradictions are easing, leading to a price increase followed by a decline. Copper's spot premium supports its price, zinc shows internal and external differentiation, and lead's overseas inventory reduction limits price drops. Tin's price is influenced by macro factors, and aluminum has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level due to bearish macro sentiment, and stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost providing a downside limit [2]. Summary by Metal Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T+D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all increased, with night - time prices also rising. Trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Comex Gold 2512 increased, while Shanghai Gold 2512's open interest decreased, and Comex Gold 2512's increased. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's open interest increased, and inventories of Shanghai Gold and Comex Gold changed, with Shanghai Gold's inventory rising and Comex Gold's falling. - **Trend Strength**: Gold's trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T+D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot rose, with night - time prices also increasing. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased, and its open interest remained unchanged. - **ETF and Inventory**: SLV Silver ETF's open interest remained unchanged, and inventories of Shanghai Silver and Comex Silver decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Silver's trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Copper 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased, and its open interest increased. - **Inventory and Premium**: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased, and LME Copper's inventory also declined. The LME Copper premium decreased significantly. - **Trend Strength**: Copper's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased slightly. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Zinc decreased while that of LME Zinc increased. - **Premium and Inventory**: Shanghai 0 zinc's premium changed, and LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Shanghai Zinc's inventory increased, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Lead 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Lead decreased while that of LME Lead increased. - **Premium and Inventory**: Shanghai 1 lead's premium decreased, and LME CASH - 3M premium decreased. LME Lead's inventory decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Lead's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Tin 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and its open interest decreased. - **Inventory and Premium**: Shanghai Tin's inventory decreased, and the LME Tin premium changed slightly. - **Trend Strength**: Tin's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and aluminum alloy main contract showed different trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed accordingly. - **Inventory and Premium**: LME Aluminum's注销仓单占比 and various premiums changed. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral outlooks [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract changed. The trading volumes of both showed different trends. - **Industry - related Data**: Key prices and spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries changed. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, suggesting neutral views [22].