1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term policy vacuum period due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary market funds. The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. For trading, it is recommended to consider options, and pay attention to structural opportunities. [4][5] - For stainless steel, the expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season exerts pressure, while the cost center moves up due to the increase in ferronickel cost. Attention should be paid to the variables in Indonesian nickel ore policies. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 News Affecting the Nickel Market - **Quota Event**: On January 8, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the quota would be adjusted according to industry demand. On January 14, it was mentioned that the target might be cut to 260 million tons of nickel ore quota. The policy for 2026 is still under review, and it is expected that specific policies will be clarified in the first quarter. If the 260 - million - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end and impact high inventories. [1] - **伴生 Mineral Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10%. [2] - **违规 Fine Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The final fine may be lower than the initial estimate. If the fine is implemented, it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices. [2] - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining the 2026 mining quota approval. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor hydrometallurgical projects. [3] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Nickel - Industrial players focus on the weak fundamentals of nickel, with over - supply pressure and expectations of low - cost hydrometallurgical production. They mainly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices for hedging. Secondary market funds expect policy changes in Indonesia and tend to go long at low prices in the long - term. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter. [4][5] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - The expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season puts pressure on stainless steel. However, the increase in ferronickel cost due to various factors in Indonesia may push up the cost of stainless steel. The cost logic may cause the stainless steel price to oscillate with a higher center, but the marginal increase in supply and weak demand still have a drag effect. [6] 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons. [7] - **新能源**: On January 16, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor inventory and ternary material inventory also increased month - on - month. [7] - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On January 15, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM nickel - iron decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. Stainless steel factory inventory decreased in December, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week on January 15. [7] 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing certain nickel - related products. [8] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026. [8] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources would revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection. [8] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons. [10]

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：高位磨盘，关注回调后的买点 ◆ 我们上周提及，近期特别需要关注的是，当前仓位管理的重要性在提升，铝价在高价位上的波动大概率会放大，在 留有期货底仓的情况下，更多运用期权等工具进行风险对冲防范的必要性增强。未来触顶的风险点建议关注海外AI 相关权益资产表现（近期表现相对稳健）、下游加工利润指标（表现弱，但倾向认为是次要逻辑）等。基于本周我 们在华东、华南产业圈的调研沟通，当前我们仍倾向于认为下游的反噬更多还是阶段性的抵抗，未来贵金属有色板 块触顶拐点的主要逻辑仍需依赖海外宏观叙事。 ◆ 短期周度级别的微观需求上，表现有参差。截至1月15日，铝锭社库较上周累库3.1万吨至74.9万吨。截至1月16日， SMM华东现货贴水扩大至-180元/吨，华南现货贴水亦扩大至-150元/吨。下游方面，截至1月16日铝板带箔周度总产 量环比继续回落，2026年 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 观点小结 01 01 CONTENTS 2 02 短纤（PF） 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 本周短纤观点：震荡市为主，利润低位运行 | 供应 | 工厂高开工97.6%，本周纺纱用直纺涤短开机率在99.1%，工厂1月底至2月左右集中检修，总量约在100-150万吨左右，即短纤降负至58%- 88%左右，总体无超预期，观察春节前后累库情况。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 内需终端订单偏弱，纱线、织造、坯布环节负荷小幅下降。下游目标放假时间在1月下旬至月底为主，因此1-2周内降负速度不快，保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is a period of sideways consolidation. In the short term, the commodity sentiment has weakened, spot trading has softened, and the futures price has reached a policy - pressured level, leading to a short - term price correction. However, due to the strong expectations of agricultural demand, the correction range is expected to be limited, and the medium - term trend remains bullish [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have seen a phased improvement on the demand side, with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The driving force is slightly bullish, and whether the driving force can strengthen further depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [2]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly a policy - pressure line. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton, supported by the strong expectations of the 2026 agricultural demand peak season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation - The report presents multiple charts related to urea valuation, including basis (e.g., ZhengYuan basis, BoDa basis), monthly spreads (e.g., 5 - 9 monthly spread, 1 - 5 monthly spread), and domestic and international spot prices. These data can help investors understand the price relationships and market trends of urea [5][9][14][18] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 392 million tons, while in 2025, it reached 664 million tons. For 2026, the expected new capacity is 651 million tons [22]. 3.2.2 Production - From January 8 - 14, 2026, China's urea production was 1.4051 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons or 2.44%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.4 - 1.41 million tons, with only minor fluctuations. The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output remains at a high level [2][25]. 3.2.3 Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi, showing that the cash - flow cost and full cost of urea and synthetic ammonia have certain fluctuations [28]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report presents profit charts for different production processes such as fixed - bed, entrained - flow bed, and natural - gas - based production [33][34] 3.2.5 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. The report provides historical data on monthly and annual net imports (exports) of urea from 2018 - 2025 (E) [38]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions have different demand characteristics according to the crop - planting cycle. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea in corn production [44][47] 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizers [51][52]. - **Melamine**: It presents the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [55][56]. - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The real - estate industry's demand for panels provides limited support, but panel exports show resilience [57]. 3.4 Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, China's urea port sample inventory was 134,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons or 4.29%. - As of January 14, 2026, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53%. Overall, the inventory is expected to enter a phase of sideways consolidation, and the inventory - reduction speed will slow down [2][62] 3.5 International Urea - The report provides price trend charts of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [66][67][68][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to widen, with the up - down trends reversing frequently. High - sulfur fuel oil may return to a weak situation in the short term, but there may still be support at the bottom due to the decline in Russian high - sulfur exports. Low - sulfur fuel oil has some positive factors, and there is support at the bottom, making it difficult to show a significant weakening. The estimated value range for FU is 2400 - 2590, and for LU is 2900 - 3150. In the short term, fuel oil prices enter a high - volatility environment with an unclear direction. The FU and LU monthly spread structures have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. The FU/LU crack spreads have reached a short - term low, and the LU - FU spread will enter a short - term oscillation [4] 3. Summary by Directory Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), and the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, CDU units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2026. It also shows the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 [6][7][8][10][17] Demand - The report provides monthly data on fuel oil demand, including Singapore's bunker sales, China's apparent consumption, and China's actual consumption of marine fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 [22][23][24] Inventory - The report shows the spot inventory data of global fuel oil from 2018 - 2026, including Singapore's heavy oil inventory, Fujeirah's heavy distillate inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US [26] Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It presents the spot FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujeirah), Europe (Northwest Europe, Mediterranean), and the US (Gulf of Mexico, New York Harbor) from 2018 - 2026 [30][34][38] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of swaps and continuous contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of domestic FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2024 [39][40][43] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the Singapore viscosity spread from 2019 - 2026 [46][49] - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: It presents the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [50][52][54] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Northwest Europe [59][60][61] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of Chinese fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 [64][66] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It presents the weekly import and export volume changes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 - 2026 [67] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly import and export volume changes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 - 2026 [69] Futures Disk Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: During the week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region fluctuated greatly, and the Zhoushan market moved in sync. The impact of geopolitical issues on the spot price of the outer market gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually repaired as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [72] - **Logic**: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the outer - market spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease, and it is expected that the spreads between FU, LU and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [72] FU, LU Position and Trading Volume Changes - The report shows the trading volume and position data of fuel oil main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts (including high - sulfur and low - sulfur) from 2020 - 2026 [86][88][92] FU, LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - The report shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2026 [99][100][101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market will generally fluctuate with an upward bias, in the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - The bearish factors include the possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel blending policy after China purchases US soybeans, Brazil's entry into the harvesting stage, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - The bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year in the next three years, the initial signs of drought in southern Argentina, and the possibility of a La Nina weather leading to a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans closed down in a fluctuating manner. The active contract of US soybeans closed at 1057.75 cents per bushel, down 4.75 cents per bushel. After the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report, the price briefly fell and then rebounded. The biodiesel blending policy may be announced in March, slightly improving the demand outlook for beans. Next week's key points to watch are China's procurement rhythm, the weather in South American main producing areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [7]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $290 per short ton, down $13.7 per short ton. The January supply - demand report was bearish, putting pressure on beans overall. The biodiesel blending policy is expected to be announced in March, causing the price of soybean oil to strengthen. The oil - meal ratio trading led to a significant decline in the price of meal [10]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil rebounded, closing at 52.61 cents per pound, up 2.92 cents per pound. The biodiesel blending policy is expected in March, supporting the oil and fat market. The strengthening of international crude oil prices has improved the consumption outlook for oil and fat [13]. - As of January 2, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.19 per bushel, down $0.11 [15]. - As of January 2, the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.62 per bushel, down $0.28 week - on - week [17]. - On January 16, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, fell by 0.96 to 103.56 reais per bag [19]. - As of January 16, the spot price at Brazilian ports fell by 3.19 to 131.45 reais per bag [21]. Supply Factors - In Brazil, the southern region will have little precipitation in the next two weeks, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The overall precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks will be close to normal. Mato Grosso in Brazil will be basically normal in the next two weeks, while Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will have less precipitation [24][28][31]. - The main producing areas of Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, and there will be basically no rain in the core producing areas in the next week [38][40]. Demand Factors - As of January 9, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.12 per bushel, compared with $2.33 last week [43]. - In the week ending January 9, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.6373 million tons, compared with 1.1126 million tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.5297 million tons, compared with 0.9841 million tons last week. The net sales volume this year was 2.0619 million tons, compared with 0.8779 million tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 10,000 tons, compared with 0 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0.9011 million tons, compared with 0.397 million tons last week [45][47][49]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.106, remaining in the La Nina range [56]. - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the planting costs of soybeans in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly. The planting cost of US soybeans continues to increase, while the cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased year - on - year [58][60][62]. - As of January 13, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 53,000 lots, compared with 95,900 lots last week. The net short position of soybean oil was 49,300 lots, compared with 73,000 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 17,100 lots, compared with 20,700 lots last week [64][66][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the winter maintenance off - season, the overall supply - side production cut was still weak. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [156]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in the red, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it lacks sustainability for more than 3 months [156]. - On the demand side, caustic soda faces negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces a persistently weak real - estate demand pattern [157]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2250 has long - allocation value. PVC, despite significant profit losses, has a forward premium that limits the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors [157]. - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly experience wide - range oscillations. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [157]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Core Contradictions and Export - The market has contradictions between high supply and high inventory, alumina production cut expectations, and slow - down in export growth. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali price spread is weak, and there are changes in the delivery area and delivery premium/discount [11]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustments. In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to the large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [21]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, and currently, the Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [26]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure features rising production and inventory, with high - level operation and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [40]. - In January 2026, there were few caustic soda maintenance projects. In 2026, caustic soda production will continue to increase, with a capacity growth rate of over 3% [47][49]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The current liquid chlorine price is in a normal fluctuation range, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [50][54]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the first half of 2026, alumina production will be concentrated, with an expected annual new capacity of 13.9 million tons. However, alumina is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses, and there are expectations of production cuts [75]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, with continuously compressed terminal profits. The new pulp production capacity continues to be put into operation. The start - up of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has declined, as well as the water treatment and ternary precursor industries [86][98][100][102]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Core Contradictions and Price Spread - The market has contradictions of high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, slow - down in export growth, and a large forward premium in futures [107][110]. - The PVC basis and monthly spread have strengthened [111]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In January 2026, there were fewer PVC maintenance projects, and there will be no new capacity put into operation in 2026 [117][121][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is at a low level but has not reached the cash - flow cost. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate [125][128]. - The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened, and the export tax rebate will increase competition pressure. The warehouse receipts are rising and still at a high level [133][139][147][153].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Glass**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. Short - term factors include forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season influence. Mid - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution policies, and potential production cuts in the glass industry. However, high forward premium, high inventory, and supply contraction factors also exist. The price is expected to fluctuate between the upward drive of production cut expectations and the downward pressure of weak demand and weak basis [4][6]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. The core driving forces of pressure are supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential demand reduction from downstream production cuts. It needs large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive the market. The price is supported by limited downward space and suppressed by long - term supply surplus and potential production cuts in the glass industry [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - Current production capacity is about 150,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021. In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons, and that of newly ignited production lines was 15,010 tons. There are also potential new ignition, old - line复产, and cold - repair production lines with certain daily melting volumes. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [10][11][15]. Price and Profit - Prices in most regions are stable with little change, but market transactions declined in the second half of the week. The basis strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. Profits for different fuel types are negative, with petroleum coke at about - 7 yuan/ton, natural gas at about - 186 yuan/ton, and coal at about - 74 yuan/ton [19][24][28]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - After New Year's Day, transactions improved and inventory decreased, but transactions declined in the second half of the week. Current inventory is relatively high, and regional arbitrage shows little change in price differences [36][41]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels are stable compared with last week [45][47]. Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions are weak, and inventory in some regions has increased. The sample inventory days are about 38.94 days, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week [49][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some plants have resumed production, and the operating rate is gradually increasing. The overall capacity utilization rate is 86.82%, up 2.43% from last week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.575 million tons, a 0.15% increase from last week and a 10.06% increase year - on - year [2][58][62]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and the market price has slightly decreased. Factory ex - factory prices are mostly stable. The basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [70][73][77].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期震荡运行 • 本周(20260109-0115)中国甲醇产量为2035375吨，较上周减少6990吨；装置产能利用率为91.11%，环比跌0.34%。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据 预计：产量203.01万吨左右，产能利用率90.87%左右，较本期下跌。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能多于恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率下降， 产量减少。（隆众资讯） • 截止2026年1月14日，中国甲醇港口样本库存量：143.53万吨，较上期-10.19万吨，环比-6.63%。本周甲醇港口库存大幅去库，主要基于卸货总量不大，周 期内显性外轮卸货9.61万吨，非显性计入12.5万吨。江苏沿江主流库区提货尚可，江浙其他社会库提货表 ...