Report Basics - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0012691 [1] - Email: jixianfei@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The firm spot premium of copper restricts the decline of its price [1] Summary by Directory Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,400 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78,170 with a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,633 with a daily increase of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,943, a decrease of 28,068 from the previous day, and the open interest was 167,671, a decrease of 8,522. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,400, a decrease of 20,146, and the open interest was 272,000, an increase of 986 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 20,349, an increase of 727, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,750, an increase of 3,550. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.07%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 49.25, an increase of 1.51 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 51, an increase of 2, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 64, an increase of 4. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,100, a decrease of 100 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 48, showing the fastest contraction in nine months, and the employment index reached the lowest in more than five years [1] - **Micro**: Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The tariff may trigger competition among US domestic traders. Codelco has cut copper mining operations at its flagship project El Teniente due to an accident [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

2025 年 08 月 04 日 铅：库存减少，限制价格下跌 【趋势强度】 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16735 | 0.00% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1974 | 0.23% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 47634 | -5725 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8929 | -1872 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 76338 | 3707 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145724 | -585 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -20 | 5 | LM ...

2025 年 08 月 04 日 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 短纤：需求淡季，震荡偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2508 | 昨日 6348 | 前日 6446 | 变化 -98 | PF08-09 | 昨日 -34 | 前日 -18 | 变化 -16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6382 | | -82 | PF09-10 | -62 | -96 | 34 | | PF | | | 6464 | | | | | | | | 短纤2510 | 6444 | 6560 | -116 | PF基差 | 148 | 131 | 17 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 264681 | 254619 | 10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy has cooled, and they are in a wide - range oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon ferroalloy futures: For the SiFe2509 contract, the closing price was 5682, down 14 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 279,553 and an open interest of 155,097; for the SiFe2510 contract, the closing price was 5668, down 16, with a trading volume of 36,795 and an open interest of 45,177 [1]. - Manganese ferroalloy futures: The MnSi2509 contract closed at 5962, up 16, with a trading volume of 358,667 and an open interest of 271,263; the MnSi2510 contract closed at 5964, up 8, with a trading volume of 38,203 and an open interest of 30,765 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The spot price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The spot - futures spread of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 182 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton; that of manganese ferroalloy was - 242 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month spread of silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2509 - 2601) was - 130 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; that of manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2509 - 2601) was - 74 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety spread of MnSi2509 - SiFe2509 was 280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; that of MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 224 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On August 1st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 100), in Ningxia 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 150), in Qinghai 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 150), in Gansu 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 100), and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton (down 100). The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 US dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the north was 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (down 100), and in the south was 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton (down 100) [2]. - **Manganese Ore Export**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore export volume was 2.2976 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total export volume was 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. In June, South Africa mainly exported manganese ore to the Asian market, with 1.4624 million tons exported to China (a month - on - month decrease of 17.98%) and 0.3303 million tons exported to India (a month - on - month increase of 3.9%) [2][3]. - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Zhejiang finalized the procurement price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 200 tons [4]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 3.5034 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,900 tons; at Qinzhou Port, it was 0.8573 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,500 tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 tons; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons. As of August 1st, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.4107 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral state [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 4 日 苯乙烯：压缩利润注意止盈，短期逢高空 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,296 | 7,332 | -36 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,329 | 7,371 | -42 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -33 | -39 | 6 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -58 | -3 | -55 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Oscillating Downward" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on zinc's fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, premiums, and inventories, and indicates a downward trend for zinc [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Zinc Market Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 1.18% [1] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 105,121 lots, a decrease of 77,539 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 14,107 lots, an increase of 2,308 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 108,084 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 189,343 lots, a decrease of 568 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was -6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.2 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 14,982 tons, a decrease of 76 tons; LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons [1] 2. News - People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that from the first - half financial data, the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was relatively obvious. At the end of June, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.9%, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and RMB loans increased by 7.1% year - on - year [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term outlook: Hold off on new positions and maintain existing long positions in crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil futures prices declined on August 4, 2025. WTI9 crude oil futures fell by $1.93 per barrel (2.79%) to $67.33 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures dropped by $2.03 per barrel (2.83%) to $69.67 per barrel, and SC2509 crude oil futures decreased by 15.10 yuan per barrel (2.86%) to 513.00 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply and Production - Considering compensation measures, OPEC+ actual oil production may increase by 528,000 barrels per day in September. Eight OPEC+ member countries will raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and will hold their next meeting on September 7 [2] - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending August 1 was 410, down from 415 in the previous week [2] Geopolitical and Trade - Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Despite US sanctions and warnings from Trump, Indian refineries continue to buy Russian oil. If the global market stops receiving Russia's daily supply of 9.5 million barrels of oil, oil prices could rise to $135 - $140 per barrel [2] - After the US imposed new sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally destined for Indian refineries have diverted to other destinations. Trump has urged countries to stop buying Russian oil and threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries that purchase Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [2] Economic Data - The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than the previous value of 147,000 and the expected 110,000 [2] - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in July was 2%, in line with the previous value and higher than the expected 1.90% [2] Market Dynamics - As Middle East oil prices rise, Asia is increasing imports of US WTI crude oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate still faces disturbances, and wide - range fluctuations may continue [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 68,920, up 640 from T - 1, down 11,600 from T - 5, etc.; the volume was 340,670, down 181,179 from T - 1, etc.; the open interest was 216,103, down 13,265 from T - 1, etc. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 69,240, up 640 from T - 1, etc.; the volume was 337,143, down 41,645 from T - 1, etc.; the open interest was 205,868, up 10,136 from T - 1, etc. The warehouse receipt volume was 6,605, up 1,060 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,430, down 1,290 from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 320, unchanged from T - 1; the basis of electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,100, unchanged from T - 1, etc. [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 755, down 11 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,710, down 40 from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350, down 650 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250, down 650 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 70,820, unchanged from T - 1, etc. [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,025 yuan/ton, down 449 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - From January to June 2025, the cumulative domestic battery loading volume was 299.6GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.3%. The top 10 domestic power battery manufacturers in the first half of 2025 were CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High - tech, EVE Energy, Sunwoda, Honeycomb Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, Zenith New Energy, and LG New Energy [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, with the value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]