Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both domestic and international cotton futures are weak. The ICE cotton futures are under pressure due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market has new cotton pre - sale offers increasing, but the cotton textile industry has a general trading atmosphere, with downstream pre - holiday stocking not being prominent, and the cotton fabric market showing a weak and stable trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session close of 13,245 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.79%. CY2511 closed at 19,495 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59% and a night - session close of 19,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.49%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.4 cents/pound with a decline of 1.40% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 321,488 lots, an increase of 68,032 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 732,424 lots, a decrease of 9,125 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,882 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 5,258 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,173, a decrease of 224, and the valid forecasts were 22, an increase of 10. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The 3128B index was 14,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: New cotton pre - sale offers in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton seeds in Xinjiang is temporarily stable, with farmers and ginneries having a strong wait - and - see attitude. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted North Xinjiang double - 29 machine - picked cotton with less than 3.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1100, with higher offers ranging from 1200 - 1300, for delivery before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is general, and downstream pre - holiday stocking is not prominent. Spinning mills have suffered many losses in the early stage, and the current inventory does not pose a great pressure. Cotton yarn prices have not dropped significantly, and they are mainly sold at the prevailing price with discounts negotiated for actual orders. The price of pure cotton cloth is running weakly and stably, with the market trading atmosphere worse than before [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined. Due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, the ICE cotton is under pressure, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][5]. - The decline of the US dollar has pushed up the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][13]. - The decline in lead inventory limits the price decline [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, alumina will continue to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost [2][25]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to changes in mining licenses and suggest light - position operations before the holiday [2][32]. - The supply - demand of industrial silicon has weakened, and for polysilicon, pay attention to policy expectations [2][35][36]. - Iron ore prices will fluctuate at a high level with repeated expectations [2][39]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][41]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal prices will fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][47][48]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][50]. - Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term, and for MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage, and pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. - Rubber will trade in a volatile manner, and synthetic rubber will operate weakly [2][31][33]. - Asphalt's factory and warehouse inventories have both declined [2][35]. - LLDPE will have a medium - term volatile market, and PP may be in a volatile market in the medium term [2][37][38]. - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but has strong cost support [2][39]. - Pulp will trade in a volatile manner [2][41]. - The price of glass original sheets is stable [2][43]. - Methanol will trade in a volatile manner in the short term, and urea will fluctuate in the short term with a weakening trend [2][44][46]. - Close short positions in styrene and pure benzene before the National Day [2][48][63]. - The short - term support for LPG is not weak, and pay attention to cost changes; propylene will operate weakly in the short term [2][50]. - PVC will trade at a low level [2][53]. - The price of fuel oil rose at night and then fell back, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [2][54]. - For the container shipping index (European line), pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the fermentation of geopolitical events [2][55]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices will fluctuate in the short term with pressure, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][60]. - The short - term rebound height of palm oil is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday; soybean oil's upside space is difficult to open as US soybeans fluctuate weakly [2][64]. - Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - For corn, pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Suggest light - position operations in eggs during the holiday [2][73]. - The bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - For peanuts, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The trend intensity is 0 [6][8]. - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10912 with a daily increase of 3.07%, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend intensity is 1 [6][8]. Base Metals - Copper: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 82370 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a night - session increase of 1.59%. The trend intensity is 2 [10][12]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 21800 with a daily decrease of 0.82%. The trend intensity is 0 [13][14]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16855 with a daily decrease of 1.49%. The trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 272410 with a daily decrease of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a night - session increase of 2.62%. The trend intensity is 0 [20][22]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20730, down 15 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina will continue to be weak (trend intensity: - 1), and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum (trend intensity: 0) [23][24]. - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121100, down 280 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless - steel's main contract closing price was 12760, down 80 from the previous day, and its trend intensity is also 0 [25][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73920, up 1040 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8610. The supply - demand has weakened, and the trend intensity is - 1 [35][38]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract's closing price was 51280. Pay attention to policy expectations, and the trend intensity is 0 [36][38]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the 12601 contract was 784.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 1 [39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The closing price of RB2601 was 3097, down 42 from the previous day; the closing price of HC2601 was 3289, down 41 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [41][42][43]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5610, down 50 from the previous day; silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5802, down 26 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [44][45][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1154, down 42.5 from the previous day; the closing price of J2601 was 1647, down 45.5 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are 0 [48][49]. - Log: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 810.5, up 0.2% from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [50][51][53]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The short - term rebound height is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][64]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans fluctuate weakly, and the upside space of soybean oil is difficult to open [2][64]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Cotton: Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Eggs: Suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][73]. - Live Hogs: The bottom of the spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures on September 30, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Some products are expected to be weak in the medium - term, while others may show short - term fluctuations or maintain a certain trend [2][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to take profit on PXN positions. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). Demand pressure is high, and there is limited upward drive [11]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is advisable to short the PTA processing fee on the 01/05 contracts. PTA inventory is rising, and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%) [12][13]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The ethylene glycol operating rate in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). The polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%), and the supply - demand balance sheet is currently strong in the short - term [14]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.47 million tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01% [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is in a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1. The supply of butadiene is high, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is increasing. The decline rate may slow down from a valuation perspective [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt shows a decline in both factory and warehouse inventories. The trend strength is - 1. From September 23 - 29, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased by 30,000 tons, a decline of 4.3%. As of September 29, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.6% [22][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The trend strength is 0. The cost side strongly supports the PE market. The demand is improving, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term is strong, and the medium - term may oscillate [34][35]. 3.6 PP - PP may be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The trend strength is 0. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate before the National Day [38][39]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The trend strength is 0. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased. The cost support is strong, and the market may oscillate widely [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The futures market led the decline, and the spot market was divided. The port inventory decreased by 3.7% week - on - week, but the absolute inventory was still high, and the demand did not improve [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0. The domestic float glass market price was stable with partial increases, and the downstream提货 volume was limited [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is 0. The port inventory decreased by 656,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.21%. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [54][56]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening trend. The trend strength is 0. As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased by 529,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.54% increase. The short - term price may oscillate, and the medium - term trend is weak [59][60]. 3.12 Styrene - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in styrene before the National Day. The trend strength is 0. The industrial chain valuation has declined, and the high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short - term [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is 0. The domestic soda ash market is stable, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [65][67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes; propylene is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trend strength of both is 0. The PDH operating rate is 69.5%, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [70][71]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market has strong low - level support, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the medium - term trend still has pressure [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price rose and then fell, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil is weakening in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend strength of both is 0 [80]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the price increase announcements and the fermentation of geopolitical events for the container freight index (European line). The trend strength is not mentioned. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined, and the market is affected by multiple factors [82].

2025 年 9 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注宣涨与地缘事件发酵 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,115.0 | -3.11% | 16,679 | 29,314 | -3,117 | 0.57 | | 0.68 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,756.3 | -1.36% | 11,879 | 20,683 | -1,012 | 0.57 | | 0.89 | | | EC2602 | 1,667.0 | -1.47% | 4,011 | 8,852 | 84 | 0.45 | | 0.74 | | | EC2510 - EC ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 29, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF rose 1.49%, IH rose 0.81%, IC rose 1.71%, and IM rose 1.68%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday and pay attention to PMI data [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2510, IF2511, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4623.6, 4609.6, 4604.6, and 4579.2 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 44999 lots, and the total open interest increased by 24225 lots [2][3]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2510, IH2511, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2974, 2976.2, 2976, and 2977.8 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 37395 lots, and the total open interest increased by 17889 lots [2][3]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2510, IC2511, IC2512, and IC2603 were 7342.8, 7277.4, 7232.2, and 7058.8 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 24390 lots, and the total open interest increased by 4379 lots [2][3]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2510, IM2511, IM2512, and IM2603 were 7484.2, 7403.8, 7337.4, and 7114.4 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 41629 lots, and the total open interest increased by 2392 lots [2][3]. 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts from September 3 to September 29 are presented graphically, showing the basis changes of current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [5]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The changes in long and short positions of top 20 members in various index futures contracts are provided. For example, in IF2510, long positions increased by 4586 and short positions increased by 5783 [6]. 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish trend [7]. - **Important Drivers**: - The Politburo meeting on September 29 studied major issues related to formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23 [7]. - The new policy - based financial instruments amount to 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [7]. - In the US market, there were various price movements in stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%, with a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan [7].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 原油：节前做多波动率、正套持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 2.27 美元/桶，跌幅 3.45%，报 63.45 美元/桶；布伦特 11 月原油期货 收跌 2.16 美元/桶，跌幅 3.08%，报 67.97 美元/桶；SC2511 原油期货收跌 14.20 元/桶，跌幅 2.87%， 报 480.30 元/桶。 1、油品套利流向 | 产品 | 路线 | 状态 | 价格 | 详细说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ($) | | | | Europe to | | | ARA 地区的重整油、丁烷和石脑油以最低成本混合，匹配 NYH RBOB 的 RVP 水平和 83.7 辛烷值；包含 EPA RVO 成本和 | | | New York | Open | 1.37 | 进口关税；使用 MR 油轮运输（38 千吨），含运输损耗和保 | | | | | | 险；使用 NYMEX RBOB M1/M2 标准化交付日 ...

40 20 07-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 2025-09-24 2025-09-25 增减 涨跌幅 增减 -0. 34% 76.02 35. 47 2. 54 75. 76 0. 33 0. 00 现货成交量(手) 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 2025-09-24 2025-09-25 运费占比 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 -0. 33% 75. 36 -2877 75. 61 1313 17.66 1.68% 图表5: EUA期现价格及基差 图表6:12月合约持仓-李节性图 -2026 -- 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -期货价格 欧元/吨 == 基差(右轴) =- 现货价格 万手 50 100 www. would on and with 20 -50 04-01 07-01 10-01 01-01 01-1 2023-01 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily data briefing of non - ferrous and precious metals on September 29, 2025, including the prices, basis, inventory, and import/export profitability of various metals such as gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Gold (AU) - **Prices**: On September 29, 2025, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 866.52 yuan/gram, the closing price of SHFE gold near - month contract was 863.60 yuan/gram, the closing price of COMEX gold main contract was 9.30 US dollars/ounce, and the closing price of COMEX gold near - month contract was 93.60 US dollars/ounce. The London gold spot price was 3759.30 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE gold spot price was 851.15 yuan/gram [1]. - **Basis**: The domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was - 0.86 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 29.80 US dollars/ounce [1]. Silver (AG) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 10939 yuan/kilogram, the closing price of SHFE silver near - month contract was 10912 yuan/kilogram, the closing price of COMEX silver main contract was 0.90 US dollars/ounce, and the closing price of COMEX silver near - month contract was 1.05 US dollars/ounce. The London silver spot price was 2.76 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE silver spot price was 10551 yuan/kilogram [1]. - **Basis**: The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was 2 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was - 0.84 US dollars/ounce [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 82370 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) continuous contract was 82390 yuan/ton. The closing price of international copper (BC) main contract was 73220 yuan/ton, and the closing price of international copper (BC) continuous contract was 73010 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 10275.00 US dollars/ton, and the COMEX copper main contract price was 4.76 US dollars/pound [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was 20 yuan/ton, the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was - 30 yuan/ton, the LME copper 0 - 3 spread was - 2.36 US dollars/ton. There were also various spot spreads and import/export profit - loss data [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE copper warehouse receipt inventory was 25603 tons, international copper warehouse receipt inventory was 2776 tons, LME copper warehouse receipt inventory was - 3250 tons, and COMEX copper warehouse receipt inventory was 322284 short tons [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was 20730 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) continuous contract was 20745 yuan/ton. The closing price of alumina (AO) main contract was 2904 yuan/ton, and the closing price of alumina (AO) continuous contract was 2852 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2665.50 US dollars/ton, and the COMEX aluminum main contract closing price was 2578.25 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was 5 yuan/ton, the alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) was - 17 yuan/ton, the LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread was - 3 US dollars/ton. There were also regional spot spreads and import/export profit - loss data [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 59747 tons, alumina warehouse receipt inventory was 149211 tons, LME aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 517700 tons, and COMEX aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 322284 tons [1]. Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 21800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) continuous contract was 21755 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 2902 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZNOO - ZN01) was - 15 yuan/ton, the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was 1.85 US dollars/ton. There were also regional spot spreads and import/export profit - loss data [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 59264 tons, and LME zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 41950 tons [1]. Lead (PB) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was 16855 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) continuous contract was 16855 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 1993.00 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was - 35 yuan/ton, the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was - 0.50 US dollars/ton. There were also refined lead Shanghai spreads and import/export profit - loss data [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory was 31946 tons, and LME lead warehouse receipt inventory was 218825 tons [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 121100 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) continuous contract was 120820 yuan/ton. The closing price of stainless steel (SS) main contract was 12760 yuan/ton, and the closing price of stainless steel (SS) continuous contract was 12620 yuan/ton. The LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15220 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 280 yuan/ton, the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was - 20 yuan/ton, the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was - 190 US dollars/ton. There were also regional spot spreads and import/export profit - loss data [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 3284 tons, stainless steel warehouse receipt inventory was - 655 tons, and LME nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 230124 tons [1]. Tin (SN) - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 272410 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) continuous contract was 271910 yuan/ton. The LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 34550 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The SHFE tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was - 30 yuan/ton, the LME tin 0 - 3 spread was 38 US dollars/ton. There were also regional spot spreads and import/export profit - loss data [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 5950 tons, and LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was 2775 tons [1].

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The high basis in the domestic cotton market during the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, along with issues in the cotton futures warehouse receipt structure [1][7][20]. - If the supply of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant than in the 2024/25 crop year, the overall basis trend in 2025/26 may be weaker than in 2024/25. Special attention should be paid to the basis downward pressure during the peak new - cotton listing period from November to December, and the basis may have difficulty replicating the strong upward trend from March to August 2025 after March 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Reasons for the "High Basis" of Domestic Cotton in the 2024/25 Crop Year - The basis of domestic cotton in the 2024/25 crop year remained at a high level throughout the year, especially from April to August 2025, which was the highest in the past 10 years [5]. - The fundamental reasons for the high basis were unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories. The strong demand was due to the expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, relatively low cotton prices, reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn, and increased "hoarding" demand, which led to concerns about tight inventories at the end of the 2024/25 crop year and pushed up the basis [7]. - The high basis was also related to the structure of cotton futures warehouse receipts. The increase in the proportion of inland warehouse receipts, the rise in the proportion of low - quality warehouse receipts such as those from Hami, and the high proportion of high - premium warehouse receipts all contributed to the strengthening of the basis [10]. 2. Outlook for the Domestic Cotton Basis Trend in the 2025/26 Crop Year - In terms of supply, the basis may be under pressure from November to December due to the listing of new cotton. If the new cotton is listed early and processed quickly, the basis will be under pressure; if the processing is slow, the basis may strengthen unexpectedly in October. Also, if the seed cotton price is lower than expected, the basis may first be firm and then weaken [14][15]. - Regarding demand, if the trade demand is weak at the beginning of the new - cotton listing and the domestic cotton demand in the 2025/26 crop year continues to fall short of expectations, the basis may weaken. The price is the main factor affecting demand. Lower prices can stimulate demand, and if the futures or spot prices are significantly lower than the new - cotton cost, it will support the basis [17]. - The changes in cotton commercial inventories and futures warehouse receipts also affect the basis. If the commercial inventory increases year - on - year and the month - on - month decline is slow after March 2026, the basis may weaken. The situation of futures warehouse receipts, including quantity and structure, also needs to be monitored [19]. 3. Summary - The high basis in the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, as well as the large - scale registration of warehouse receipts from Hami and high - index cotton, and the "arbitrage" of Xinjiang cotton to inland warehouses [20]. - If the supply in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant, the overall basis trend may be weaker. Attention should be paid to the procurement enthusiasm of spinning mills and traders at the beginning of the listing, the profit and operating rate of spinning mills, and the commercial inventory and warehouse receipt situation [21].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 29 日 铝：继续磨盘 氧化铝：重心下移 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20745 | -20 | -50 | 210 | 305 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20660 | l | l | । | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2649 | -15 | -27 | 72 | 146 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 115180 | -30893 | 8117 | -12988 | -71141 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 212720 | -7920 | -33147 | -15308 | ...