Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **豆油**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **标油**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **玉米**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆, being bearish, with a driving force for price decline but limited market operability [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is in the process of fermentation [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different price trends and investment opportunities. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by international trade policies, and others by weather and policy factors [2][3][6] Summary by Product Soybeans - **Domestic soybeans**: The short - term large number of auctions drags down the price. The price of domestic soybeans is relatively low in valuation, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties and policy guidance [2] - **U.S. soybeans**: The new - season soybeans have a reduced planting area but an increased yield per unit, and the ending inventory decreases year - on - year, which boosts the price. There is a risk of high temperature and low precipitation in some areas in the short term [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed series main contracts continue to be weak, and the rapeseed meal position increases significantly. The market has strong expectations for importing Australian rapeseed. If the trade between China and Australia grows rapidly after the new Australian rapeseed is launched in October, the rapeseed series futures prices may be under short - term pressure. The rapeseed series maintains a medium - term bullish view, but the futures prices may be under short - term pressure [2][5] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia is negotiating with the U.S. on zero - tariff palm oil imports. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation, and 5 million hectares of palm plantations are under review. The price difference between Malaysian 24 - degree palm oil and Argentine soybean oil has rapidly narrowed. The long - term biodiesel policy in the U.S. remains unchanged, but there is a risk of phased demand fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of position changes on price trends [3] Corn - The Dalian corn futures return to the downward trend. The U.S. corn continues to decline, with a good growth rate. The domestic corn supply remains high without policy guidance and under the background of the decline in U.S. corn prices. Corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6] Pigs - The spot price of pigs is stable but weak, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline. The government may provide support when the price drops to a certain range. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price rises [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable but strong, and the near - month futures price fluctuates at a low level. The trading logic of the egg futures market is still to reduce production capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot price, the game between peak - season demand and cold - storage egg release, and the progress of production capacity elimination [8]

Report Key Points 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆ (According to the star description, it represents a more distinct upward trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity at present) [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ (Indicating a more distinct upward trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity at this time) [1] 2. Core View - Overnight, precious metals declined. The US released a 3.3% year - on - year PPI rate in July, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and the monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. The weekly initial jobless claims also remained low. After the data was released, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations were suppressed to some extent. Focus on the meeting between US and Russian leaders today, and market sentiment is volatile. It is recommended to keep a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals [1] 3. Other Key Information - Trump said that if the meeting with Putin goes well, he will call Zelensky; if it is a bad meeting, he will not call anyone. This meeting lays the foundation for the second meeting, and if the problems cannot be solved, sanctions will be imposed. Western leaders are considering the possibility of holding a tri - party summit of Russia, the US, and Ukraine in a European city [1] - Russian President Putin stated that the US is seeking an agreement acceptable to all parties, and it is possible to reach a new arms agreement with the US. The Kremlin said there is no plan to sign a document on the results of the Russia - US summit [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will retain gold as a store of value and is unlikely to re - evaluate the US gold reserve holdings. The reserve value of Bitcoin is about $15 - 20 billion, and the sale of Bitcoin holdings will stop. There is no call for the Fed to cut interest rates by 150 basis points, only indicating that the model shows a lower neutral interest rate [2] - Fed's Daly said that a significant interest - rate cut next month does not seem appropriate. Fed's Musalem said that a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut does not conform to the current economic situation or data [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (implied from context) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (implied from context) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and policy expectations. Each metal has its own short - term and medium - term trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper oscillating with a positive line, supported by medium - term moving averages. The spot copper price dropped to 79,180 yuan. The market is concerned about US retail sales and industrial output data. It is believed that there is significant resistance above the copper price, and short positions at high levels should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly today, with the East China spot at par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 0.1 million tons, while that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The start - up of downstream leading enterprises stabilized. The peak of off - season inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor but has certain resilience. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. As supply surplus becomes more apparent, the spot index in various regions is falling, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 77,500 tons, with the 0 - 3 month spread close to par. The low inventory in the outer market supports the price. Short - position funds are continuously reducing their positions, and LME zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The import window remains closed, and the outer market is pulling up the inner market. The domestic Shanghai zinc has fully priced in the weak reality and weak expectations, and the term structure has flattened. There is a lack of resonance between macro sentiment and fundamentals, and short - term directional signals are insufficient. The supply of mines at home and abroad continues to increase, and there is still room to short mine profits on the futures. The idea of short - allocating on rebounds in the medium term remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Second entry) - LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the outer market is dominated by surplus, oscillating weakly. The import window remains closed. As the delivery approaches, the SMM social inventory of aluminum has increased to 71,700 tons. Recently, the futures - spot spread has narrowed, and the profit from delivering to the warehouse is insufficient. The subsequent domestic lead ingot inventory may become invisible, and the growth space of the visible social inventory in the future is expected to be limited. The aluminum price is oscillating at a low level, and there is reluctance to sell recycled aluminum. The SMM precision price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton. There is limited downward space for lead. Downstream purchasing on dips has improved, but the terminal consumption has not recovered. There is potential demand in the data center UPS power and energy storage sectors. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton. At the same time, there are still 10 days until the expiration of near - month options, and opportunities in the last - trading - day options can be considered [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals. The premium for Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium for imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium for electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the ferro - nickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Pay attention to signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in a rebound and should be regarded as oscillating [7] Tin - Shanghai tin recovered part of its decline and closed above the MA40 daily average line. A small amount of LME tin inventory flowed in this week, and its persistence should be tracked. In the domestic market, pay attention to the maintenance and production plans of large factories. It is believed that there is room to reduce the high social inventory in the domestic market. Today, the spot tin is reported at 266,000 yuan, and there is still a real - time premium of 700 yuan on the last trading day. Short - term long positions at low levels should be held based on the MA60 daily average line [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate strengthened at the end of the session, and the market trading was active. The delivery problem in September restricts the upward space. The spot price is reported at 83,000 yuan. Downstream inquiry activities are active, and the spot market transaction has improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as the price回调. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly 1000 US dollars. The futures price fluctuates greatly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, turning positive at the end of the session due to the sentiment transmission from polysilicon. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remained stable at 9050 yuan/ton (SMM), down 100 yuan/ton. Under the background of increased production by large factories in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, there is still pressure from high - level hedging on the futures. However, SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Coupled with the expectation of photovoltaic policies, the support below the futures is strong, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased significantly in position and rose. The expectation of a photovoltaic conference next week is rising, and the sentiment of policy benefits is fermenting again. At the same time, some terminals have begun to accept the component price of 0.68 yuan/W. However, it should be noted that under the expectation of a structural decline in terminal demand in September, the component price and price will still be under pressure. In the polysilicon segment, the production in August is expected to increase significantly to 130,000 tons, and the high - inventory pattern still restricts the upward space of its price. In operation, short - term news related to the photovoltaic conference has a significant impact on sentiment. The current futures is close to the previous high. Long positions can consider partial profit - taking, and at the same time, pay attention to position control and the performance at the resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★☆, suggesting a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of repeated tug - of - war between weak demand and anti - involution, with the short - term operation rhythm of the futures price switching quickly and mainly oscillating within a range. The overall wind direction change of the commodity market should be noted [2] - The iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited fundamental contradictions currently [3] - The coke futures price has a high short - term volatility, with the price being greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4] - The coking coal futures price has a large short - term volatility, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [6] - The silicon manganese price bottom is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, mainly following the coking coal trend [7] - The silicon iron price is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the silicon manganese trend [8] Summary by Industry Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The apparent demand for hot roll improved, production increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2] - The molten iron production declined moderately but remained at a high level. With low inventory, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. As the parade approaches, attention should be paid to the production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity degree slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment is stronger year - on - year, and there is an expectation of seasonal recovery in the future. The domestic port inventory has stabilized and rebounded, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure even under high port clearance [3] - On the demand side, this week's steel apparent demand declined, but the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a high level, and currently there is insufficient motivation for active production reduction. Iron ore demand is still supported by high molten iron. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy - based production restrictions [3] - At the macro level, the Sino - US tariff extension, domestic demand still needs policy support, and the market sentiment has cooled down due to the coking coal position limit [3] Coke - The coking plants in East China have expectations of production restrictions again as a major event approaches. The sixth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, profits have improved, and daily coke production has increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory is in a downward trend, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [4] Coking Coal - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" mainly pushes up the cost per ton of coal. The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has mainly increased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat [6] - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de - stocking in the short term. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [6] Silicon Manganese - The demand side has a molten iron production of over 240, still maintaining a high level. The weekly silicon manganese production has continued to increase, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing some support for the price [7] - The manganese ore price has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to be depleted. Attention should be paid to when the on - balance - sheet silicon manganese inventory starts to increase [7] Silicon Iron - The molten iron production has decreased slightly but remained above 240. A large northern steel mill's tender price increased by 430 compared with the previous round, with a tender price of 6030 yuan/ton and an inquiry price of 5700 yuan/ton [8] - The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The metal magnesium production has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable [8] - The silicon iron supply has increased significantly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has increased slightly [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [1][2][3]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 1.75%. Investors await the US - Russia summit. Short - term, focus on buying out - of - the - money options on dips; mid - term, consider short positions after geopolitical risks are priced in [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, Asian fuel oil arrivals are abundant, with weak demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, and the diesel crack spread has declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market faces pressure, and high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are bearish [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The price has stabilized slightly. The import cost and crude oil may drive refinery gas prices down. The market is in low - level oscillation [22]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal (Coke & Coking Coal)**: Both coke and coking coal prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - making maintains a high level in the off - season. The prices are volatile in the short term [15][16]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US July PPI data suppressed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. With the US - Russia summit, the market is volatile, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The LME copper recovered some losses but faced resistance. The US July PPI increase was significant. The SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The aluminum market is in a slight inventory - building state, with the peak likely in August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental supply - increase and demand - weakness suggest a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term. The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 129,200 tons. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The refinery's maintenance and restart coexist, with insufficient demand. The short - covering support limits the downside. Hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The fundamental situation is poor. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel decreased. Enter short positions as the rebound nears its end [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices fell further. Consider bargain - hunting for short - term long positions [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly oscillating. The iron - making output remains high, and the manganese ore price rose slightly. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follows coking coal [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly oscillating. The iron - making output is slightly down. The supply increased, and the inventory slightly rose. The price follows manganese silicon and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the inventory increased. The spot index is falling, and the futures price may adjust [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the industry profit is poor. The price has some resilience [5]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental supply - increase and demand - weakness suggest a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term. The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 129,200 tons. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Propylene supply increased, and the market is bearish. Polyethylene producers are more likely to raise prices. Polypropylene demand is weak, and the market is under pressure [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak state, with increased inventory. Caustic soda is strong, with reduced inventory. The short - term price of caustic soda may rise, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded. PTA's operating rate is low, and PX's supply - demand is expected to improve. The downstream demand is gradually improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The supply is temporarily tight, and the demand is showing signs of improvement [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillated. The domestic production increased slightly, and the import decreased. Consider trading the monthly spread [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly, but there is no strong upward driver [26]. - **Methanol**: The import is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The inland market is relatively strong. Pay attention to the downstream demand in the peak season [24]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate without new positive factors [23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The USDA August report was positive for US soybeans. The domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be around 10 million tons from August to October. Be cautious about going long on soybean meal and look for opportunities on dips [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil declined with the fall of rapeseed oil. Be cautious about the adjustment risk of palm oil. Pay attention to the impact of position changes on prices in the short term [36]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of rapeseed products declined. In the medium - term, the rapeseed supply may be tight. Maintain a bullish view on rapeseed products [37]. - **Corn**: The USDA August report was negative for US corn. The domestic corn supply is sufficient, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton planting area and output were significantly reduced. The domestic cotton inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is stable. Consider buying on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar production forecast is negative. The domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines [44]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is moving from near - term to far - term contracts. The egg price needs to fall to reduce production capacity. Pay attention to the spot price, peak - season demand, and cold - storage egg release [41]. - **Lumber**: The price is in a correction. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. The spot price has support. Monitor whether the futures price can stop falling [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price rose. The port inventory is high, and the supply is relatively loose. Consider buying on dips as the demand may improve in the peak season [46]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market fluctuated. The market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors and paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures declined. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is in a competitive downward trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19].

| | | | V V V SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月14日 | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★★☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★★☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格冲高快速回落,市场消化了菜籽反倾销初裁政策之后，菜系产品价格快速回落,也带动 了豆一价格的回落。国产大豆本周五继续竞价拍卖4.4万吨,短期拍卖数量较多,对国产大豆价格带来拖累。美 ...

| Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月14日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱本周交投好转，价格稳中略偏强。截至7月底，商业库 在为218.98万吨，环比减少64万吨，同比减少58.8万吨。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为119.83万吨，环比减少52.74万吨，同比减少 35.65万吨，国内7月份库存消化尚可，预计8月份消化环比好转。宏观上市场对于 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (not specified whether it's red or green, but from the analysis, it has a downward - driving factor) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (not specified whether it's red or green, but with a bearish fundamental) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not rated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (not specified whether it's red or green, but with a bullish factor) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (not specified whether it's red or green, with a low - level oscillation) [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price fell slightly overnight, and the market's expectation of a loose supply - demand situation was further strengthened. However, there is still an upward risk due to unexpected supply fluctuations. The Brent price center may fall from $67 per barrel in Q3 to about $63 per barrel in Q4 [2] - The fuel oil market in Asia in August is in a loose situation with insufficient demand and high inventory. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - sulfur fuel oil has a bearish fundamental [3] - The asphalt market shows relatively resistant performance. The supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally, and the low inventory supports the price [4] - The LPG price has stabilized slightly due to the increase in East Asian chemical procurement. The price is in a low - level oscillation after the futures price has initially reflected the bearish expectations [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight, the international oil price fell slightly, and the SC09 contract dropped 1.55% due to position transfer. The IEA August report raised the oil supply growth rate and lowered the demand growth rate, and the US EIA crude inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels last week [2] - There are key cut - off points for the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear negotiation in August. The upward risk caused by unexpected supply fluctuations exists, but the downward economic growth pressure after the peak season and the enlarged supply - demand surplus may drive the price down [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the fuel oil arrival volume in the Asian market is abundant, the ship - bunkering demand lacks support, and the power - generation demand has declined. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the diesel crack spread has dropped by $7 per barrel [3] - Under the expectation of the third - batch quota issuance, the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - sulfur fuel oil has a bearish fundamental as the previous geopolitical support fades [3] Asphalt - The asphalt shows relatively resistant performance in the oil - product futures. The profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily in August, and the refinery's intention to switch to producing residual oil may rise [4] - The August production plan has decreased month - on - month, and the demand has improved slightly. The cumulative year - on - year increase in the sample refinery's shipment volume has risen by 1 percentage point. The overall commercial inventory has increased slightly but is still at a low level in recent years [4] LPG - The overseas market export of LPG remains loose, but the increase in East Asian chemical procurement provides support, and the price has stabilized slightly. The import volume has generally increased at the beginning of August, and the refinery gas price may still be adjusted downwards [5] - The chemical profit margin and the price ratio to naphtha are at a good level. The sustainability of the good chemical profit margin after high - level operation needs attention. The futures basis has reached a high level, and the price is in a low - level oscillation [5]

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]