Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. Market Data Commodities - **Palm oil**: Closed at 8060.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - **Live pigs**: Closed at 13605.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - **Soybean meal**: Closed at 2968.00 with a weekly increase of 0.54% [2]. - **Corn**: Closed at 2336.00 with a weekly increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Copper**: Closed at 77600.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.24% [2]. - **PTA**: Closed at 4700.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.34% [2]. - **Aluminum**: Closed at 20070.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.42% [2]. - **Silver**: Closed at 8218.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.54% [2]. - **Methanol**: Closed at 2208.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.63% [2]. - **Gold**: Closed at 771.80 with a weekly decrease of 1.06% [2]. - **Crude oil**: Closed at 447.90 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Closed at 4349.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.23% [2]. - **Glass**: Closed at 982.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.80% [2]. - **PVC**: Closed at 4764.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.85% [2]. - **Iron ore**: Closed at 702.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.23% [2]. - **Rebar**: Closed at 2961.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.79% [2]. - **Coke**: Closed at 1308.00 with a weekly decrease of 5.42% [2]. A-shares - **CSI 500**: Closed at 5671.07 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - **CSI 300**: Closed at 3840.23 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **SSE 50**: Closed at 2678.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.22% [2]. Overseas Stocks - **Nikkei 225**: Closed at 37965.10 with a weekly increase of 2.17% [2]. - **Nasdaq Composite**: Closed at 19113.77 with a weekly increase of 2.01% [2]. - **S&P 500**: Closed at 5911.69 with a weekly increase of 1.88% [2]. - **FTSE 100**: Closed at 8772.38 with a weekly increase of 0.62% [2]. - **CAC 40**: Closed at 7751.89 with a weekly increase of 0.23% [2]. - **Hang Seng Index**: Closed at 23289.77 with a weekly decrease of 1.32% [2]. Bonds - **5-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.58 with a weekly increase of 2.36% [2]. - **2-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.50 with a weekly increase of 1.35% [2]. - **10-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.33% [2]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: Closed at 99.44 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - **US Dollar central parity rate**: Closed at 7.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.10% [2]. - **EUR/USD**: Closed at 1.13 with a weekly decrease of 0.14% [2]. Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 8 expect a sideways trend [3]. - **Bullish logic**: May PMI data shows significant improvement in corporate export orders; ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 index increased by 600 million this week; The Premier emphasized increasing policy support to expand consumption; Market sentiment for real estate and fiscal policies is expected to further recover [3]. - **Bearish logic**: May construction and service sector PMI is not high; A-share average daily trading volume decreased by 79.4 billion yuan week-on-week; Weak domestic demand affects profit expectations; Trump's false social media posts on China trade increase tariff uncertainty [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [3]. - **Bullish logic**: Setbacks in China-US economic and trade negotiations support the bond market; Manufacturing PMI remains below the boom-bust line; Weak stock market momentum benefits the bond market; Supply-demand disturbances in the bond market weaken after partial issuance [3]. - **Bearish logic**: Industrial enterprise profit growth rebounds; High-speed profit growth in new kinetic energy industries; Banks and insurance companies have limited capacity to absorb bond supply; Market concerns about rising certificate of deposit rates persist [3]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - **Bullish logic**: Saudi Arabia's production increase falls short of expectations; Low oil prices hinder US shale oil supply growth; The Northern Hemisphere enters the peak season for refined oil; Chinese refineries plan to end maintenance in June [4]. - **Bearish logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in July; A large amount of US Treasury bonds will mature in June; Trump reignites China-US trade disputes; Global economic weakness and trade frictions drag down oil demand [4]. Agricultural Products Sector Cotton - **Strategy view**: Among 8 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - **Bullish logic**: Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is depleting faster; Import window is mostly closed; India's cotton production decreases year-on-year; US cotton sowing progress lags behind [4]. - **Bearish logic**: The domestic textile industry enters the off-season; Textile enterprises' operating rates decline; Finished product inventories increase; Post-Dragon Boat Festival temperature rise benefits new cotton growth; US cotton-growing areas have good weather [4]. Non-ferrous Metals Sector Copper - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - **Bullish logic**: Global copper mine supply is disrupted; LME copper inventory is falling; Domestic social inventory is low; Strong demand from power grid and new energy industries [5]. - **Bearish logic**: US steel tariff hikes raise stagflation expectations; Weak domestic commodity market sentiment; Widening scrap-copper price difference; Poor cable orders [5]. Chemical Sector Soda Ash - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - **Bullish logic**: Maintenance peaks in July and August may ease supply pressure; Strong export performance; Stable light soda ash demand [5]. - **Bearish logic**: Weak glass demand affects the soda ash market; End of the PV installation rush; Low downstream purchasing enthusiasm; High production and inventory levels limit price increases [5]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [6]. - **Bullish logic**: US steel and aluminum tariff hikes increase uncertainty; Central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand support prices; SPDR Gold ETF holdings increase; Long-term logic of gold as a hedge against credit currency risk [6]. - **Bearish logic**: US economic data shows resilience; The Fed's May meeting was hawkish; US stocks showed no significant reaction to tariff hikes; Market sensitivity to Trump's policies may decline [6]. Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6]. - **Bullish logic**: Steel mills maintain profits; Port iron ore inventory decreases; Steel mills' imported ore inventory is low; Global iron ore shipments decline [6]. - **Bearish logic**: Trump plans to double steel and aluminum import tariffs; Mainstream ore shipments recover; Daily pig iron production decreases; Daily port throughput decreases; Weak domestic real estate market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 な女女 [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper main contract closed up above 78,000 yuan. Today, spot copper price adjusted to 78,415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium narrowed to 90 yuan, and Guangdong copper was at a discount of 15 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,200 tons to 148,800 tons this week. Suggest to short on rebounds or actively roll over contracts [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined today. East China spot premium slightly dropped to 90 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons. Demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction. Shanghai aluminum has resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Guinea mining area incident has temporarily subsided. Alumina has an over - supply situation in the long - term. Suggest to short on highs for both aluminum and alumina [3] Zinc - Overseas mines are expected to increase output in Q2 compared to Q1. Domestic CZSPT's Q3 2025 import ore TC guidance price is 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton. Zinc social inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level, but total supply of zinc ingots and zinc alloys will increase. Consumption off - season is emerging. Suggest to short on rebounds [4] Lead - Thursday, SMM 1 lead average price rose by 75 yuan to 16,500 yuan/ton. High spot - futures price difference promotes warehousing. Lead - acid battery consumption is in the off - season. SMM lead social inventory increased to 53,900 tons. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures price oscillated downwards. Trade conflicts have spread to the steel sector. Stainless steel supply remains high, and consumption peak season is ending. Philippines nickel ore supply is expected to increase. Suggest to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin weighted price oscillated below the annual line. Today, spot tin price increased by 4,100 yuan to 259,600 yuan. Low - grade tin复产 may be more difficult than expected. Suggest to hold previous high - level short positions and roll over contracts on rebounds [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. Total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 131,600 tons, downstream inventory increased by 800 tons, and smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. Mid - stream production increased by 3% month - on - month. Suggest to participate in the oscillatory rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures slightly declined. Supply is increasing while demand growth in photovoltaic and organic silicon slows down. High inventory persists. Although there are signs of oversold, the downward trend remains. Suggest to maintain a bearish view [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures decreased with reduced positions. Domestic distributed demand declined. June downstream production plans are tightened, while polysilicon production is expected to increase. Inventory pressure rises slightly. Price tends to oscillate weakly [11]

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货成交一般,基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货，市场信心不足，节后价格暂变化不大。近期下 游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加,压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于 后期库存有偏紧的预期。宏观方面，中美谈判情况并不顺利，继续关注后续情况。美棉种植进度偏慢，天 ...

Report Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: ★★★ for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon, and silicon manganese, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the steel industry is pessimistic, with demand expectations being a major constraint. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with limited rebound space due to potential negative feedback in the mid - term and possible external trade frictions [3]. - The coke price is in a stalemate, and there may be a driving force for the price to continue rising in the short term [4]. - The coking coal market is in a situation where demand has reached a peak and supply has marginally decreased. The recent price increase is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [6]. - The silicon manganese market is weak, and short - term observation is recommended to see if the rebound is sustainable [7]. - The silicon iron market has a general demand, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Steel - Rebar: This week, the apparent demand decreased significantly, production declined, and the de - stocking pace slowed. The hot - rolled coil demand declined, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The iron - water production is gradually falling but remains at a relatively high level. The improvement in the infrastructure is limited, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has slowed, and the real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability. The increase in US tariffs impacts steel exports. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments have rebounded to a yearly high, and domestic arrivals have increased significantly. Port inventories may stabilize with the increase in arrivals. - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, and iron - water production is declining from a high level. The decline rate may not be fast, but the downward trend is hard to change. The rebound space is limited, and the trend will be volatile [3]. Coke - The price is in a stalemate, and the third round of price cuts has started. The coking daily production is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and the coking coal rebound provides some support. There may be a driving force for the price to continue rising in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The downstream demand has concerns about production cuts, and all links are reluctant to replenish inventory. The supply from production and imports remains in an oversupply situation. Some state - owned mines are reducing production, and some mines are shut down for rectification. The iron - water production is still high, maintaining a high - level rigid demand for furnace materials. The price increase is more likely a basis - repair rebound [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is mainly driven by coking coal. Due to previous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase. The manganese ore inventory may increase significantly this week. The iron - water production is declining, and the silicon manganese supply is slightly increasing. The market is weak, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is mainly driven by coking coal. The iron - water production is declining. The export demand remains at about 80,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The magnesium metal production has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remains stable at a high level. The supply is decreasing, and the market transaction level is general. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans and related products is not explicitly stated, but for soybeans and soybean meal, it is short - term bearish; for soybean oil and palm oil, it is expected to be range - bound; for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is short - term bearish; for corn, it is expected to be weakly bearish in a volatile pattern; for live pigs, it is short - term bearish; for eggs, it is cautious and wait - and - see. The ratings for each product are as follows: - Soybeans: Not explicitly rated, but short - term bearish for soybeans and soybean meal [3] - Soybean oil and palm oil: Range - bound [4] - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: Short - term bearish [6] - Corn: Weakly bearish in a volatile pattern [7] - Live pigs: Short - term bearish [8] - Eggs: Cautious and wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and trade policies. Supply is generally abundant in the short - term, and demand is relatively weak. Weather will be a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term [2][3][4][6] - For different agricultural products, there are specific influencing factors. For example, the supply of imported soybeans is increasing, the demand for terminal feed is weak, and the trade between China and the US is uncertain; the relationship between China and Canada affects the rapeseed market; new wheat affects the corn market; the supply of live pigs is increasing, and the egg market is affected by previous chicken - chick replenishment and the off - season of demand [3][6][7][8][9] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are hovering at a low level. A bidding procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be noted. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is suitable for the growth of soybeans. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant due to a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports. The price of US soybeans in the medium - term will be affected by weather and is expected to be volatile and bullish. Weather will also be the main factor driving the price of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures continue to rise with reduced positions, while the domestic spot price continues to fall. The national mainstream price has dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, and the decline has been significant since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive at ports in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. The supply is becoming more abundant but the increase rate is narrowing. Oil mills are operating at a high rate, and the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The terminal feed demand is weak. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and it is short - term bearish. Pay attention to the upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are in a correction state, and the oil - meal ratio is correcting. The crushing profit of domestic soybeans in the near - month shipping schedule is poor. The short - term weather in the US is generally beneficial to soybean crops. In the medium - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and the domestic oil - meal futures will follow the US soybean market. The domestic soybean spot market will face the pressure of a large number of arrivals. The arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in a production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. It is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain a range - bound trend [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector has stabilized today, reversing the decline in the past two days. The communication between China and Canada during the Paris meeting is considered a possible warming of bilateral economic and trade relations, but whether there will be a turning point remains to be seen. If the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will be more abundant, and rapeseed oil may face more pressure due to seasonal demand differences. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the bio - diesel policy of the US and Canada and the weather in the new - crop production area. It is expected that the domestic rapeseed futures price will be under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade expectations and overseas weather [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise with reduced positions. The spot price of corn in Northeast China remains stable, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. The price difference between new wheat and corn is gradually narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - price corn areas are starting to replace corn with wheat. The overall demand is weak, the acceptance capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. With the listing of new wheat, the supply of corn in circulation will increase. It is recommended that investors be cautious when going long, and in a volatile pattern, the weak - demand situation is expected to be weakly bearish [7] Live Pigs - The live - pig futures are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the spot price is generally declining. The inventory of breeding sows in the sample continued to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the planned slaughter volume in June will increase by 1% month - on - month, with the average daily slaughter volume expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. Due to the continuous recovery of the number of newborn piglets, the supply of live pigs will generally increase in the future. Group pig enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter, which will further increase the supply pressure. The spot price may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and the supply pressure in the long - term will be reduced through measures such as reducing the weight of pigs, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing the sow capacity. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce the weight of pigs [8] Eggs - The egg futures are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the far - month contracts are showing a weak downward trend. The spot price of eggs is stable today. Although the current spot price of eggs has entered a low - valuation range, compared with the historical bottom of egg prices, there is still room for decline. The future pressure comes from the increasing production capacity due to the large - scale replenishment of chicken chicks and the off - season of demand during the plum - rain season. It is necessary to continue to observe the loss of egg - farmers and the process of culling old hens [9]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Coking Coal: Rebound or Reversal?" [2] - Analyst: Cao Ying, Chief Analyst of Ferrous Metals at Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: June 4, 2025 [3] Report Core View - The fundamental situation of coking coal has not undergone a fundamental reversal, facing concerns about downstream production cuts, rejection of restocking at all links, and a continued oversupply situation at the production and import ends, which is continuously verified by the inventory accumulation trend. However, there are indeed some marginal changes, with the market most concerned about the subsequent impact of the dismissal of the Mongolian Prime Minister [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Current Market: Invariance vs. Change - The fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged with downstream demand concerns, rejection of restocking, and oversupply, but there are marginal changes such as the Mongolian Prime Minister dismissal event [6]. - There is a reduction in domestic coking coal supply. Some private mines have minor production cuts, and during the June safety production month, state - owned large mines have some top - bin production cuts, and some mines are shut down for rectification due to accidents [9]. Impact of Other Factors - The strong momentum of export growth has weakened [12]. - Thermal coal is about to enter the demand peak season. The 5500K port price of thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - end decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blended coking coal [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market situation of various soft commodities is complex, with different influencing factors for each. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, while for some, there are specific trading opportunities such as the potential for pulp to go long on significant dips and the possibility of a rebound in rubber [2][3][6][7] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with overall commodity rebound in the afternoon. Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger. Pure - cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, and market confidence was insufficient. Downstream startup declined slowly, and finished - product inventory increased. Cotton spot prices were firm, and high - quality resources decreased, leading to an expected tight inventory. The Sino - US negotiation was not smooth. US cotton planting progress was slow, with a planting rate of 66% as of June 1, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The focus of the international market is on Brazilian sugar production, with a relatively bearish supply expectation. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Thailand in the third quarter is beneficial for sugarcane growth. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the sugar import profit rebounded, and the import volume is expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, which was beneficial for prices, and the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In Shandong, market sales were slow, and merchants were cautious in purchasing. In Shaanxi, there was little remaining inventory in cold storage, mainly in northern Shaanxi. Cold - storage owners were more willing to sell, and transactions increased slightly. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. The western production areas were affected by high temperatures and windy weather during the flowering period, which may affect fruit - setting rate and quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were different estimates of the output. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Rubber (RU&NR&BR) fluctuated strongly today. The domestic new - energy vehicle countryside campaign improved market sentiment. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the external butadiene export price was stable. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period, and major domestic and foreign production areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance or reduced load, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate rebounded slightly. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded slightly. Tire inventory decreased, and some tire enterprises had holidays during the Dragon Boat Festival. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 610,000 tons, and the domestic butadiene port inventory increased slightly to 285,000 tons. The downstream demand weakened, natural rubber supply increased, synthetic rubber supply decreased, spot inventory increased, cost support strengthened, and there were favorable policies. The strategy is to bet on a rebound after over - selling [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Hebei U - needle and B - needle was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.161 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and pulp demand was still weak. The import volume may decline. Pulp valuation was low, and there was strong support near the previous low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. Regarding supply, the external price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the production willingness of external suppliers increased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume of radiata pine in June will be low. In terms of demand, the daily average outbound volume of ports remained above 60,000 cubic meters after entering the off - season, showing relatively good demand. As of May 30, the total national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.79 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The national log inventory continued to be destocked. The radiata pine log inventory also started to be destocked last week, reducing inventory pressure. Overall, due to poor profits, the shipping volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, which is beneficial for the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Coking Coal: Rebound or Reversal?" [2] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Cao Ying, Chief Analyst of Ferrous Metals [3] - Date: June 4, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of coking coal has not undergone a fundamental reversal, facing concerns about downstream production cuts, rejection of restocking at all links, and an oversupply situation at the production and import ends, which is continuously verified by the inventory accumulation trend. However, there are some marginal changes, with the market most concerned about the subsequent impact of the dismissal of the Mongolian Prime Minister [6]. - There is a reduction in domestic coking coal supply. Some private mines have made small - scale production cuts, and during the safety production month in June, state - owned large mines have some top - bin production cuts, and some mines have been shut down for rectification due to accidents [9]. - The strong momentum of export growth has weakened [12]. - Thermal coal is about to enter the peak demand season. The port price of 5500K thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - end decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blending coking coal [13]. Group 3: Data and Trends - National coal - coke total inventory estimation shows data for 2023, 2024, and 2025, with the specific inventory values presented in the graph [5]. - The daily production data of 88 sample coking coal mines' raw coal, the combined production of raw coal and clean coal of 88 sample coking coal mines, and the daily coke production of national independent coking enterprises from 2022 - 2025 are presented in the graph [10]. - The cross - border coking coal/thermal coal price ratio and the daily consumption of key power plants from 2023 - 2025 are presented in the graph [14]. - The year - on - year growth rate of major real estate indicators and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities are presented in the graph [8]. - The production growth rate of major steel products is presented in the graph [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, trade policies, and inventory levels. Different products have different trends, with some expected to be range - bound, others to decline in the short - term, and some to be affected by potential weather - driven price fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category [Soybean (Domestic and Imported)] - Domestic soybeans are oscillating at a low level. A domestic soybean bidding and procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be monitored. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth. Imported soybeans will have sufficient supply due to a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China. The mid - term price of US soybeans will be affected by weather and is expected to be oscillating upward. Domestic soybeans are also entering the planting and growing season, and weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations [2]. [Soybean and Soybean Meal] - Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating flat with insufficient upward momentum. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been falling significantly since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. With more international soybeans arriving, the supply is becoming more abundant. Oil mills are maintaining a high operating rate, and soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. In the short - term, a bearish view is maintained, and the market lacks continuous driving force. Investors should pay attention to the potential upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3]. [Soybean Oil and Palm Oil] - The market focus is on the potential easing of agricultural policies between China and Canada. Soybean oil and palm oil are mainly reducing positions and falling passively following rapeseed oil. The increase in the oil - meal ratio has slowed down. The short - term weather in the US is generally favorable for soybean crops. In the mid - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and domestic oil - meal futures are expected to fluctuate with US soybean prices. Domestic soybean spot will face the pressure of a large amount of arrivals, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4]. [Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil] - Rapeseed - related futures are generally falling today. The main contract of rapeseed oil is increasing positions and falling. The focus is on the market's expectation of the easing of Sino - Canadian rapeseed - related trade relations. The key for domestic rapeseed products lies in the marginal change of trade policies. If the Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will become more abundant. Due to seasonal differences in demand, rapeseed oil may face more significant pressure. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the US - Canada rapeseed oil biodiesel policy and new - crop area weather, and its price center is expected to rise slowly. In general, domestic rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure [6]. [Corn] - Corn futures are rebounding with position reduction following the overall commodity market. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is generally stable. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. With the new wheat harvest, the price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - priced corn areas are gradually substituting. The overall demand is weak, the receiving capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. After the transfer of domestic grain ownership, the market's circulating grain sources are still concentrated in the trading sector. With the listing of new wheat, more corn will be put into the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious about going long, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly [7]. [Pork] - Pork futures are oscillating weakly. The spot price of pork is generally falling across the country. As the number of newborn piglets continues to recover, the overall supply of pork will increase in the future. Group pig - raising enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for sale, and the future sales rhythm is expected to accelerate, further increasing the supply pressure. In the short - term, the spot price still has room to fall. In the mid - term, the policy aims to stabilize pork prices, and measures such as reducing pig weight, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing sow production capacity will reduce the long - term supply pressure. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce pig weight [8]. [Eggs] - The main contract of egg futures has reached a new low today, and the near - month contract is performing weakly. The plum - rain season is having a negative impact on the near - month contract, while the spot price of eggs is stable today. The inventory of laying hens in production continued to increase in May, and the chicks replenished earlier are still in the production - capacity release stage. The egg - laying chicken farming industry has entered the loss zone, and the number of old hens being culled has increased. However, there is no panic - selling situation yet. In June, the plum - rain season will start in the South, and the seasonal off - peak demand period is coming. At the same time, due to the large - scale chick replenishment in the past, the production capacity is still being released. It is expected that the egg price still has a risk of further decline. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens, weather factors, and feed prices [9].