Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Crude oil prices maintain a medium-term bearish trend, with short-term geopolitical factors causing temporary supply fluctuations and limited rebound space. Consider a strategy combining high-level short positions and call options [2]. - The spread between high- and low-sulfur fuel oils is difficult to compress further. Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread on dips [3]. - There is still support at the bottom of the asphalt futures price [4]. - The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, with good support at the spot end. Monitor the peak-season stocking market [5]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.07% intraday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export ports affecting supply. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25bp, providing short-term support to the commodity market [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The rebound in crude oil drives up fuel oil futures. Russian fuel oil shipments have declined, while domestic refinery demand and Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel consumption have increased. China's low-sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased by 900,000 tons, but the utilization rate is low, and supply pressure is not prominent [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures are mainly oscillating. Recent data shows a slight reduction in refinery inventories and a 50,000-ton weekly decline in social inventories. The increase and subsequent decrease in warehouse receipts in East China help relieve the downward pressure on spot prices in the region. Prices in South China and Hebei are temporarily stable [4]. LPG - The overseas market remains strong, with strong import demand and geopolitical risks boosting sentiment. Typhoons in South China have reduced imports, while good chemical profit margins support high operating rates. The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and the spot end has good support [5].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Sugar: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Log: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Natural Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - 20 - number Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trends of various soft commodities are mostly in a state of shock or relatively balanced, and the operability of the market is generally poor. It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, while paying attention to various influencing factors such as supply and demand, price, and macro - events [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a slight decline today. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with a potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may trigger a scramble for purchase by ginneries, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is about 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with cautious market sentiment and poor downstream order demand. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still in shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weakly operating. Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year in the short term, with less supply pressure than last year. In the medium term, if the current sugar - alcohol ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly declining. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is reduced year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather and cane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was in shock. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and merchants were actively purchasing. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and it is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, with a bearish operation idea [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined today. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded to 134,000 tons. Demand has significantly recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The inventory of China's main pulp ports decreased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease, but the inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August 2025 decreased by 227,000 tons month - on - month. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or use the idea of range shock for operation [7] Log - The futures price was in shock. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The import willingness of traders has decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the import and export volume has not increased significantly. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: None - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: None - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None Core Views - The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino-US trade relations, with falling Brazilian soybean premiums and overall weak performance of soybean-related products [2][3][4]. - In the short term, it is necessary to verify the market's expectation of improved trade relations and pay attention to policy guidance and market performance of new crops [2][3][4]. - In the long term, supported by overseas biodiesel policies, soybean and palm oils can be considered for buying on dips [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Domestic) - Domestic soybean positions increased, and prices hit new phased lows. The expected opening price of new soybeans is low, around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan per catty [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybean oil briefly rebounded and then oscillated downward. The domestic oil - meal ratio reached a phased high, with soybean meal weaker than soybean oil [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by the expectation of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations, futures prices fell. Weekly soybean crushing is expected to be around 2.4 million tons, and soybean meal inventory is expected to be around 1.2 million tons at the end of September. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products fell today, with the oil - meal ratio continuing to rise. The expectation of increased soybean imports may put pressure on rapeseed meal prices, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures remained weak. Spot prices varied by region, with Xinjiang having high prices, Northeast remaining firm, and Shandong being weak [7]. Pig - Pig spot prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The goal of reducing pig production capacity by about 1 million heads was discussed. The market is currently recommended for observation [8]. Egg - Egg futures adjusted slightly downward, while spot prices were slightly stronger. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts for next year's first half and pay attention to short - position exits in near - month contracts [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold operation rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver operation rating: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals mainly fluctuated. The US August retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.50% [1] - Trump called for faster interest rate cuts. The market priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut this time was only 3% [1] - Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude at the meeting early tomorrow and Powell's speech on future guidance. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, beware of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect leading to a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Other Key Points Tariff - related - The EU and Indonesia reached a trade agreement [1] - The US Commerce Department considered imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [1] - The US and India's trade negotiators held positive talks in New Delhi on Tuesday and agreed to step up efforts to reach a trade deal [1] Trump - related - Trump talked with Modi to ease differences on tariffs and Russian oil [2] - Netanyahu will visit the White House again at the end of this month [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen talked with Trump, and she agreed to phase out Russian oil imports and increase sanctions against Russia [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru arranged a visit to the US next week [2] - Trump arrived in the UK [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [2] - The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 20.1%, 50 basis points is 76.8%, and 75 basis points is 3.1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Commodities**: Gold closed at 834.22 with a weekly increase of 2.28%, silver at 10035.00 with 2.27% increase, and aluminum at 21120.00 with 2.05% increase. Some commodities like palm oil decreased by 2.41%, and polycrystalline silicon dropped by 5.51% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares such as CSI 500 rose by 3.38%, SSE 50 by 0.89%. Overseas stocks like Nikkei 225 increased by 4.07%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.03% [2]. - **Bonds**: Yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds increased by 3.99bp, and 2 - year by 0.78bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.15%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.12% [2]. 2. Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors include expected Fed rate cuts, potential new policies, large - scale reverse repurchase, and progress in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are shrinking trading volume, possible lower - than - expected Fed rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, and a 1.4 - billion - share decrease in CSI 1000 ETF [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, all 7 are neutral. Bullish factors are weak economic indicators, rising domestic rate - cut expectations due to Fed rate - cut expectations, and stable liquidity. Bearish factors are high stock market risk appetite and potential bond supply pressure in Q4, as well as bond fund redemptions [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, increased global oil demand forecast, supply disruptions, and limited shale oil production growth. Bearish factors are the end of the gasoline consumption season, weak US employment and consumption, rising US rig count, and increasing US crude oil inventories [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Rapeseed Oil**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are limited Canadian菜籽 supply, expected late arrival of Australian菜籽, and tight market supply. Bearish factors are abundant global菜籽 supply, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, weak consumption, and import restrictions [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 2 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, supply disruptions, strong demand, low domestic inventory, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are potential limited Fed rate - cut space, unproven peak - season demand, high - price resistance, and impact of low - cost imported copper [6]. Chemical Industry Sector - **Urea**: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are increased procurement, production cuts, inventory reduction, and price support from exports. Bearish factors are rising enterprise inventory, increased production capacity utilization, slow - recovering industrial demand, and the end of agricultural demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are weak US employment data, central bank gold purchases, concerns about Fed independence, and a weak US dollar. Bearish factors are high market risk appetite and potential post - rate - cut pullbacks [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are potential new policies, high market risk appetite, coal - production control, and increased iron - water and coking production. Bearish factors are high Mongolian coal imports, resumed coal production, approaching end of demand peak, and reduced downstream purchasing [7].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月17日 【原油】 隔夜贵金属震荡，美国公布8月零售销售月率录得0.6%，高于预测的0.2%和前值0.50%。市场定价美 联储年内将连续降息三次，特朗普称需要更快速的降息，聚焦明日凌晨美联储会议降息幅度以及鲍 威尔讲话对未来路径的指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线走低,短线仓量获利了结,市场静待联储会议。国内现铜上调到81120元,换月后沪 粤升水75、40元。铜价突破再涨,需重点关注资金兴趣,目前仓量一般。多单择机止盈观望。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。下游开工继续季节性回升，年内铝锭库存大概率处于偏低水平。但铝锭社库仍未现 拐点,继续关注旺季需求反馈。沪铝短期测试3月高点位置阻力。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝小幅回调，保太现货报价维持在20600元。废铝货源偏紧,税率政策调整预期 增加企业成本,现货与沪铝跨品种价差存在进一步收窄空间。 (氧化铝) 氧化铝运行产能超过9700万吨刷新历史新高，行业库存持续上升，仓单超过15万吨。供应过剩明 显，各地现货持续下调，新疆铝厂招标价折北方出厂价低于2950元。晋豫产能现金成本尚有利润, ...

隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特11合约涨1.51%。近期俄乌博弈再次加码，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯炼厂 及出口港口，上周末遇袭的Kirishi地区炼厂炼能40万桶/天在全国占比6.4%，总体受损炼厂开工或 在10万桶/天之内；出口能力100万桶/天的西北部Primorsk港口亦因遇袭影响9月装船计划。 此外， 市场预期周三结束的联储议息会议将至少降息25bp，对商品市场情绪构成短期支撑。原油价格中期 偏空趋势不变，短期地缘因素或对供应有阶段性犹动，但反弹空间愈发受限，继续关注高位空单与 看涨期权相结合的策略组合。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月17日 【原油】 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属震荡，美国公布8月零售销售月率录得0.6%，高于预测的0.2%和前值0.50%。市场定价美 联储年内将连续降息三次，特朗普称需要更快速的降息，聚焦明日凌晨美联储会议降息幅度以及鲍 威尔讲话对未来路径的指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线走低,短线仓量获利了结,市场静待联储会议。国内现铜上调到81120元,换月后沪 粤升水75、40元。铜价突破再涨,需重点关注资金兴趣,目前仓量一般。多单择机止盈观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View As of the week ending September 14, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, in line with market expectations but down slightly from the previous week and the same period last year The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 67%, higher than market expectations and also slightly down from the previous week but better than the same period last year The harvest rate of US soybeans and corn is at a certain level, and the good-to-excellent rate remains relatively good However, in the next two weeks, the dry weather in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn has eased, but the temperature is higher than normal, which poses challenges to the harvest of new crops Soil moisture has decreased week-on-week but is better than the same period last year Continuous monitoring of weather changes in the production areas is required [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Soybean - **Good-to-excellent rate**: The current good-to-excellent rate is 63%, matching market expectations, down from 64% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year, showing a slight decline [1] - **Harvest rate**: The harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations, compared to 3% in the previous week, 6% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 3% [1] US Corn - **Good-to-excellent rate**: The current good-to-excellent rate is 67%, higher than the market - expected 66%, down from 68% in the previous week, and better than 65% in the same period last year It remains in a relatively good state [1] - **Harvest rate**: The harvest rate is 7%, lower than the market - expected 9%, up from 4% in the previous week, compared to 8% in the same period last year, and in line with the five - year average of 7% [1] Weather Impact In the next two weeks, the less - rainy problem in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn has eased, but the temperature is higher than the same period, which continues to challenge the harvest of new crops Soil moisture has decreased week - on - week but is better than last year [1]

Report Information - Report Title: "2025 August Naphtha Shipping Schedule Monthly Report" [2] - Release Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Group: Chemical Group of Guotou Futures Research Institute [2] - Researchers: Pang Chunyan (Z0011355), Wang Xueyi (F03125010) [2] Market Overview - In August, Russia's shipment volume was 4.8346 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 45.54%; the Middle East's shipment volume was 39.3065 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 18.78%; the US loading volume was 2.7235 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%. The total shipment volume decreased by 13.0841 million barrels compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 21.83% [3]. - The region with the highest total arrival volume among major regions was Northeast Asia, with an arrival volume of 35.1026 million barrels. China's naphtha arrival volume last month was 13.743 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.6575 million barrels. The import from the Middle East accounted for the highest proportion at 40.06%, with a slight month - on - month increase. The import proportions from Northeast Asia and Russia also increased, while the imports from North America, South Asia, the Mediterranean, and North Africa decreased [3]. Shipment and Arrival Data | Region | July 2025 | August 2025 | Jan - Aug Cumulative | Jan - Aug Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Russia Shipment | 8.877 million | 4.8346 million | 79.641 million | - 32.17% | | Middle East Shipment | 48.3929 million | 39.3065 million | 344.3975 million | - 6.75% | | US Shipment | 2.6788 million | 2.7235 million | 35.9367 million | - 35.07% | | Northeast Asia - China | 1.311 million | 1.4226 million | 10.4891 million | - 5.03% | | Middle East - China | 4.8728 million | 5.5048 million | 36.6762 million | 21.93% | | Russia - China | 0.9709 million | 3.0558 million | 11.0898 million | - 36.09% | | South Asia - China | 3.971 million | 2.4323 million | 12.8518 million | 335.77% | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the intensity of black and energy - chemical factors declining and the differentiation between non - ferrous and black sectors expanding. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are precious metals and non - ferrous metals, while the weak sectors are energy and black sectors [2]. - The comprehensive signals of strategies for methanol, float glass, iron ore, lead, and aluminum are neutral this week, except for iron ore which is bearish [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the intensity of black and energy - chemical factors falling and the differentiation between non - ferrous and black sectors widening. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals are strong, while energy and black sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum rebounded significantly, but the internal difference between gold and silver continued to expand. The position factor of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, with copper being strong. In the black sector, the momentum factor increased marginally, and iron ore was stronger than rebar in the term structure. In the energy - chemical sector, cross - sectional momentum was differentiated, with chemicals weaker than energy, and soda ash being weak. In the agricultural products sector, the positions of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while that of soybean meal increased, and one can short the oil - meal ratio [2]. Methanol - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.09%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.11%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol decreased (bullish on the supply side); the average start - up of traditional downstream industries continued to decline, but the start - up of the olefin industry rebounded (neutral on the demand side); ports continued to accumulate inventory significantly (bearish on the inventory side); overseas methanol spot market prices and import profits released bearish signals, and the bullish strength of the spread side weakened and turned neutral [3]. Float Glass - Last week, the returns of major category factors were flat month - on - month, and this week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral. Fundamentally, the start - up load of float glass was flat compared with last week (neutral on the supply side); the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities decreased slightly (neutral on the demand side); the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased (slightly bullish on the inventory side); the profit of pipeline - gas - made float glass declined, and the bullish strength of the profit side weakened and remained neutral; the spread factor in the Shenyang - Shahe area released a bearish signal (slightly bearish on the spread side) [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.21%, the spread factor decreased by 0.25%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains bearish. Fundamentally, the import volume in August increased, and the shipment volume from Brazil rose (bearish on the supply side); the consumption of sintering ore powder by steel mills increased, and the bullish feedback on the demand side strengthened, but the signal remained neutral; the inventory of major port iron ore continued to accumulate, and the bearish feedback on the inventory side strengthened, with the signal remaining neutral; the freight rate decreased, but the spot price increased, and the bearish feedback on the spread side weakened, with the signal remaining bearish [9]. Lead - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.27%, the inventory factor increased by 0.04%, the spread factor decreased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned neutral. Fundamentally, the profit of SMM recycled lead was repaired, and the supply - side signal turned from bearish to neutral; LME lead registered warehouses and inventory continued to reduce, and the inventory - side signal remained neutral; the LME near - far - month spread widened, and the spread - side signal turned from neutral to bullish [9]. Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened, and the spread factor decreased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the recovery speed of the supply side slowed down, and the supply - side signal turned from bearish to neutral [9].