Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for rebar is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for hot-rolled coil is ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for iron ore is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. - The investment rating for coke is ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for coking coal is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for silicon manganese is ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend and the market is currently evolving [1]. - The investment rating for ferrosilicon is ★☆★, the white star implies that the short - term bullish or bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a slightly bullish short - term trend with caution due to factors like demand, supply, and macro - policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to trade sideways in the short term with a relatively loose fundamental situation [3]. - The coke market will likely trade sideways as the market anticipates stimulus policies despite a rich carbon supply and downstream demand characteristics [4]. - The coking coal market is likely to trade sideways as it faces fundamental pressure after discount repair but also has expectations for stimulus policies [6]. - For silicon manganese, it's recommended to try going long on dips considering the market situation [7]. - For ferrosilicon, it's recommended to try going long on dips given the demand and supply situation [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's supply and demand have both decreased, and de - stocking has accelerated slightly but pressure remains. Iron - water production has continued to fall, supply pressure is easing, and the slowdown of steel mill production cuts may slow. The downstream demand is weak, and exports are high. The short - term trading floor is expected to be slightly bullish [2]. Iron Ore - The global supply of iron ore is strong with high - end - of - year shipment expectations. Domestic arrivals are also strong, and port inventory has increased significantly. The demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production cuts are expected to slow. The short - term trading floor is expected to trade sideways [3]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [4]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. Production has slightly decreased, spot auction prices have slightly increased, and inventory has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [6]. Silicon Manganese - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. There are structural problems in port inventory. Iron - water production has decreased seasonally, and silicon manganese production and inventory have slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [7]. Ferrosilicon - There are expectations of coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production has rebounded, export demand has decreased, and metal magnesium production has increased. Supply has significantly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [8]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the resupply rhythm of copper concentrates is expected to be tight in the first quarter and looser later, with the supply - demand situation possibly shifting from "shortage" in 2025 to "tight balance". High copper prices during the off - season and the potential adjustment pressure on prices are offset by tight raw materials, reduced domestic refined copper supply and refinery exports. The key to copper trading is the rhythm, and after a short - term adjustment, copper prices may continue to rise around the peak season next year [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 Copper Concentrate Resupply Rhythm - In 2026, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to rebound to around 2%, with an increment of about 450,000 tons. The supply difference will vary quarterly, being tightest in the first quarter, and the market will focus on new projects in the second quarter, large - mine复产 in the third quarter, and new projects' production increase in the fourth quarter [1] "High Copper Price + Low Consumption" and Refinery Scheduling - The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 95,000 yuan, with a high position of 640,000 lots. During the off - season, the divergence between the rising copper price and domestic spot supply - demand signals has widened. The domestic copper social inventory has slowly increased to 168,400 tons, and the copper product start - up rate is expected to be lower than last year. However, the CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026, and the first - quarter domestic refined copper output growth rate is likely to slow. The supply of copper concentrates and scrap copper is tightening, and the export of unforged copper cathodes and cathode profiles has increased significantly [2][3] Key Trading Points in 2026 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market continued to implement the copper long - allocation strategy, accelerating the year - end rise of copper prices. Due to the tightest copper concentrate supply in the first quarter of 2026, copper prices have reached the $12,000 target. After reaching a high of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan, copper prices may adjust, but are likely to rise again around the peak season. The seasonal fluctuations of domestic social inventory around the Spring Festival will verify the supply - demand situation [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].

| 1 1 1 12 標 1 œ | | --- | | 4 17 | | 7 1 2 2 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月23日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的 闲置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一国委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应 收紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were relatively strong in cross - section, the black and energy sectors were above the neutral range, and the agricultural products sector was relatively weak [3]. - In the methanol strategy, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%, and the comprehensive signal this week is long. In the float glass strategy, the synthetic factor increased by 1.38% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. In the iron ore strategy, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week remains neutral. In the lead strategy, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week changed from short to long [5][8][10] Section Summaries Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were strong in cross - section, agricultural products were weak. Gold's time - series momentum rose slightly, silver's position increased more marginally. In the non - ferrous sector, short - cycle momentum recovered, and the term structure differentiation narrowed. In the black sector, time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. In the energy and chemical sector, short - cycle momentum factors recovered. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrowed [3] Performance of Different Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%. The import methanol arrival volume and domestic road transport prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased on the demand side; the methanol port continued to destock on the inventory side; the domestic methanol spot price fell while the port price was strong on the spread side [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly long, the inventory side turns neutral, and the profit side remains short [8] - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the inventory factor declined by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. The supply side turns to short feedback but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback weakens and turns to neutral, the inventory side's signal turns from short to neutral, and the spread side's short feedback weakens slightly and the signal remains neutral [10] - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. The supply side signal turns from short to neutral, the inventory side signal turns from neutral to long, and the spread side signal turns from short to long [10] Data Tables - **Commodity Factors Performance Table**: It shows the last week's and current month's returns of supply, demand, inventory, spread, and the cumulative returns of major categories [4] - **Factor Index Table for Different Sectors**: It presents the time - series momentum, cross - section momentum, term structure, and position volume of black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, agricultural products, stock index, and precious metals sectors [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in macro policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be mainly volatile, with market expectations for stimulus policies [4][5] - For silicon manganese, it is recommended to try long positions on dips [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to try long positions on dips [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures price rose and then fell today. The apparent demand for thread improved slightly, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated slightly, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Pig iron production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, steel mill profits improved marginally, and the production reduction trend may slow down. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, domestic demand was still weak overall, steel exports remained high, and the actual impact of license management remains to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price was weakly volatile today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were still stronger than the same period last year. There is an expectation of a shipment rush by mines at the end of the year, and overseas shipments are expected to remain strong [3] - The domestic arrival volume decreased month-on-month but was still at a high level in the same period, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand in the off-season is at a low level. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, pig iron production has decreased significantly. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has decreased, and there is currently no active replenishment demand [3] Coke - The coke futures price was strongly volatile today. The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing on a small scale as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price was widely volatile today. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or suspended production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks [5] - Coking coal production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased, and total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with production-side inventory also increasing slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures price was mainly volatile today. Driven by the rebound in the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for furnace charging. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases significantly, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, pig iron production decreased seasonally. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price was mainly strong today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, pig iron production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely during the day and operated weakly overall. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely and operated weakly. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. Polyester - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit across all contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on December 22, 2025, driven by domestic long - term funds. The prices have significant increases, and they are natural multi - allocation varieties under the influence of fundamentals and the macro - level [2]. - In the super bull cycle of precious metals, the high - to - low shift of funds gives platinum and palladium higher premiums. Their investment and consumption have great growth potential, and the price logic affects the supply - demand expectations of the fundamentals [3]. - The supply side is brittle, and the large - scale application prospects of hydrogen energy boost consumption expectations. There will be supply shortages for platinum and palladium in 2026 [4]. - The current precious metal and non - ferrous metal market is a re - balance of "money" and "resources". Platinum and palladium, with high import dependence in China, are suitable for multi - allocation [6]. - The large price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium will attract arbitrage trading, and the price difference is expected to converge [7]. - In the long - term, platinum and palladium follow the super bull cycle of precious metals. In 2026, platinum is more likely to break through historical highs. In the short - term, they may achieve most of the annual increase, and the mid - term strategy is to allocate more on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Higher Premiums for Platinum and Palladium due to High - to - Low Fund Shift in the Precious Metal Super Bull Cycle - In the context of the global situation, precious metals have allocation value. Gold and silver price increases provide higher premium space for platinum and palladium. The investment and consumption of platinum and palladium have great growth potential, and price and supply - demand expectations interact [3]. II. Brittle Supply Side and Boosted Consumption Expectations from Hydrogen Energy Application - The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of hydrogen energy. The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated. It is expected that in 2026, platinum will face a supply shortage of about 23 tons, and palladium will have a supply shortage of about 3 tons [4]. III. Re - balance of "Money" and "Resources" - The current market is a re - balance of "money" and "resources". China has a high import dependence on platinum and palladium, so they are suitable for multi - allocation [6]. IV. Convergence of Domestic and Foreign Price Differences - Due to the high import dependence of platinum and palladium in China and relatively easy import procedures, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets will attract arbitrage trading. Import merchants and speculative funds can lock in profits through cross - market arbitrage [7]. V. Market Outlook - Platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have reached new highs. Platinum is more likely to break through historical highs in 2026. They follow the precious metal bull cycle. In the short - term, they may achieve most of the annual increase, and the mid - term strategy is to allocate more on dips, while being vigilant against the "long - killing - long" market [8].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力经过短暂的跳空之后,盘面再度回升,盘面仍然在进行移仓。本周中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆2.1万吨, 成交1.3万吨,底价3950元/吨,成交均价4027元/吨,溢价0-160元/吨。由于拍卖溢价成交,给豆一价格带来一 定的支撑,价格表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It also presents the market mainstream strategy views and investment logic for different asset classes based on the views of multiple institutions [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - **Commodities**: From December 15 to December 19, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some products such as coking coal, PTA, and polysilicon increased, with coking coal rising by 9.00%, PTA by 5.81%, and polysilicon by 5.34%. While the prices of some products such as copper, soybean meal, and corn decreased, with copper down 1.05%, soybean meal down 1.26%, and corn down 1.84% [2]. - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.32%, the CSI 500 Index remained unchanged, and the CSI 300 Index fell 0.28% [2]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100 Index rose 2.57%, the French CAC40 Index rose 1.03%, the NASDAQ Index rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.10%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.10%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.61% [2]. - **Bonds**: The yields of 2 - year and 5 - year Chinese government bonds increased by 0.38bp and 0.24bp respectively, while the yield of 10 - year Chinese government bonds decreased by 0.44bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.32%, the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate fell 0.28% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views - **Macro - financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 0 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 7 were neutral. Positive factors included overseas central bank policies, increased long - term capital allocation after index corrections, market attention to technology themes, and expected policy dividends in 2026. Negative factors included a decline in M1 growth, weakening policy impetus, weak economic momentum, and time - consuming policy implementation [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 3 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were weak fundamentals, central bank liquidity injection, the attractiveness of 30 - year bond yields, and potential bond market recovery. Negative factors were low probability of short - term interest rate cuts, increased influence of trading disks, and concerns about ultra - long bond supply and demand [3]. - **Energy Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 0 were bullish, 5 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Positive factors were supply disruptions in Venezuela, inventory decline in the US, increased refinery utilization rates in China and the US, and strong local refined oil demand. Negative factors were limited impact of Venezuelan supply disruptions, rising non - OPEC production, increasing floating storage inventory, and expected slowdown in demand growth [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybean Meal**: Among 7 institutions, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were high import costs of US soybeans, pre - holiday stocking demand, increased replenishment by traders after price drops, and signs of short - position reduction in futures. Negative factors were strong expectations of a South American soybean harvest, poor performance of domestic soybean auctions, high inventory in oil mills, and weak purchasing willingness of feed enterprises [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were zero long - term processing fees in 2026, low spot smelting fees, continuous increase in copper foil operating rates, a decline in domestic copper concentrate port inventory, and high market attention. Negative factors were end - of - year capital shortages, high social inventory, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and a decline in the operating rate of refined copper rods [5]. - **Chemical Industry Sector** - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions, 0 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 7 were neutral. Positive factors were potential cold - repair plans in late December, low near - month valuations, and potential boost from real - estate policies. Negative factors were a decline in deep - processing order days, slow market shipments, high inventory, and limited upside potential due to high inventory and off - season pressure [5]. - **Precious Metals Sector** - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 3 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were an increase in the US unemployment rate, lower - than - expected CPI, an increase in non - commercial net long positions in gold, and long - term support from central bank gold purchases. Negative factors were rapid adjustment of the gold - silver ratio, approaching a key resistance level, and market divergence on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [6]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions, 3 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Positive factors were release of supply pressure, low valuation, production cuts by some coal mines, increased winter - storage demand from steel mills, and improved spot - market transactions. Negative factors were high imports, a decline in steel mills' daily hot - metal production, reduced demand from coking plants, and an increase in total coking coal inventory [6].