Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are provided as follows: Thread steel (★★★), Hot-rolled coil (not clearly marked), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Ferro-silicon (★★☆), Silico-manganese (not rated in the presented content) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of black metals shows different trends. The short - term trends of most products are likely to be volatile. The market sentiment is cautious, and the impact of macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals needs to be closely watched [2][3][4] Summaries According to Product Categories Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel declined, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decrease. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory reduction accelerated, but pressure still remained. Iron - water production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, and the decline in steel - mill production may slow down. The domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high, and the impact of license management is yet to be observed. The short - term trend of the steel market is expected to be slightly stronger while volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is volatile today. The global shipment is strong, and there is an expectation of year - end rush, so overseas shipments are expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory increased significantly at the beginning of the week. In the demand side, the terminal demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production has been decreasing due to environmental protection. However, considering the large previous reduction and stable steel - mill profits, the reduction speed is expected to slow down. Steel - mill inventories are low, with a certain restocking expectation. The iron - ore fundamentals are relatively loose, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke price is volatile today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream and traders having limited purchasing willingness. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is seasonally decreasing, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. The steel - mill profit is average, with a strong willingness to lower raw - material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and there are expectations for stimulus policies, so the price is likely to be volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is mainly volatile today. Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to safety production and completed annual production tasks. The production of coking coal decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly, while the terminal inventory increased. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory also increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is seasonally decreasing, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. The steel - mill profit is average, with a strong willingness to lower raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount is repaired, there is still fundamental pressure. However, due to expectations for stimulus policies, the price is likely to be volatile [6] Silico - manganese - The silico - manganese price is strongly volatile today. Driven by the futures rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese - ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silico - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase, and the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. The iron - water production decreased seasonally, the weekly production of silico - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution". It is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7] Ferro - silicon - The ferro - silicon price is strongly volatile today. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee increases, and there are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The iron - water production rebounded to a high level, the export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. The production of magnesium increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, so the overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of ferro - silicon decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution". It is recommended to try to go long at low prices [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]

�� 闯然閲츠 黒金研投团队 钢市周周浏 2025/12/25 单位: 万吨 周产量 环比 厂内库存 环比 社会库存 环比 厂库+社库 环比 周消费量(未包括进出口) 环比 �要约 184 39 2.71 140 06 0 52 294 19 -18.81 434 25 -18.29 202.68 -5 96 43.32 72.33 -2.84 -1.69 43.7 -3.42 87.02 -5.11 -3.41 线材 77.44 293.54 80.52 296.7 -10.60 377.22 -13.50 热卷 1.63 -2.90 307.04 8.76 冷卷 86.48 0.39 39.23 1.69 124.25 -1.88 163.48 -0.19 86.67 -0.04 160.08 0.80 196.02 中板 -3.04 82.3 -0.50 113.72 0.30 159.78 -1.02 796.82 385.43 -2.88 -33.91 -36.79 合计 -1.15 872.56 1257.99 833.61 -1.67 数据简评：本同螺纹表需有所下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存延续去 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月25日 【原油】 继美国接连扣押油轮后,目前委内瑞拉海域有十余艘满载油轮正等待船东的新指示。俄罗斯黑海塔 口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水 平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量 仍维持在年内高位。她缘冲突多发引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,地缘 扰动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 (责金属) 【铜】 隔夜铜价震幅扩大，沪铜加权减仓，海外资金圣诞休市。国内现货背离加大，昨日上海铜贴水扩至 310元，短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 导，且价差利于出口。一季度合约多配需求持续性强，前期多单持有依托位上调到9.4万，同时建议 设置主动止盈位。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝回落。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限，社库窄幅波动，表观需求并无亮眼表现。近期宽松交易 延续，贵金属和有色多品种创新高，沪铝跟涨为主，圣诞节假期来临资金有离场迹象，沪铝在前高 位置仍具备阻力、多头背靠40日线持有 ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月24日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨，棉花现货主流销售甚差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存同比基本持平，销售进度偏 快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月18号，国内棉花累计加工皮棉648.6万吨，同比增加 82.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加155.2万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has greater adjustment pressure from domestic spot supply and demand, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and the price difference is favorable for exports. Hold the previous long positions with the support level raised to 94,000, and set a dynamic stop - profit between 97,000 and a certain level [1]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by the macro - environment. The long positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support, and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. For cast aluminum alloy, consider the opportunity to narrow the price difference when it expands to over a thousand yuan [2]. - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and it will remain weak before large - scale production. The decline of the spot price is more certain due to the large basis [2]. - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton, with the support of downstream consumption and the expectation of loose monetary policies [3]. - The nickel market is dominated by policy - induced sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize and adopt a short - term wait - and - see strategy [6]. - For tin, pay attention to the reduction of positions and emphasize the high - level risks. Consider allocating out - of - the - money long put options for spring contracts [7]. - The lithium carbonate futures price is in a strong oscillation, with strong fundamentals and the short side at a disadvantage [8]. - The industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with market expectations centered on the expected centralized production cuts in the north at the end of the month [9]. - The polysilicon market has a co - existence of strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term trading floor may oscillate and correct under the adjustment of trading rules [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - On Wednesday, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased to near the record level, and the price rose at the end of the session. The domestic spot price difference widened, and the refined - scrap price difference was average. The domestic spot supply and demand put pressure on the copper price, but raw material shortages may affect refined copper [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China remained stable. The aluminum market fundamentals had limited contradictions, and the social inventory fluctuated slightly. The market was mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the long positions could be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [2]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 200 yuan to 21,500 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and the exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly. The tax adjustment may increase the cost in some areas [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, with an oversupply situation. The industry inventory continued to rise. The cost of alumina had room to decline, and it would remain weak before large - scale production [2]. Zinc - The long positions in the intraday market continued to cover, and the open interest increased. The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly, and the external market rose along the 60 - day moving average. The zinc export window was closed, and the consumption in 2026 was not overly pessimistic [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The price movement was mainly due to the stop - loss of industrial short positions, and the irrational trend was expected to be short - lived. The nickel ore quota in 2026 was significantly reduced, and the mineral benchmark price formula would be modified [6]. - The inventory of refined nickel increased, the nickel - iron inventory decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin open interest decreased, and the price fluctuated greatly. The domestic spot tin price had a large discount to the delivery month. The short - term moving average still provided support. The supply was expected to turn around and resume in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price broke through the 120,000 - yuan integer mark, and the market trading was active. The market inventory decreased, and the mid - stream was enthusiastic. The futures price was in a strong oscillation, and the fundamentals were strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price continued to rise slightly. The market expectation focused on the expected production cuts in the north at the end of the month. Although the operating rate in Xinjiang decreased slightly, the actual production cuts had not occurred. The downstream demand showed some changes [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continued to decline slightly. The market was waiting for the storage plan to be announced, and the production quota in 2026 might be tightened. The actual price was stable, but new orders were limited. The trading rules were adjusted, and the short - term trading floor may oscillate and correct [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Methanol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic Soda: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures showed different trends on December 24, 2025, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and downstream demand [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures rose. Price concessions led to better low - price transactions, but supply in Shandong was loose. PDH enterprises may reduce price - cutting willingness due to rising costs [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose due to technical rebounds. The domestic polyethylene market price continued to decline, and polypropylene faced issues like insufficient new orders and restricted circulation due to year - end fund recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated and recovered, remaining in the bottom - range oscillation. There are expectations of supply - demand improvement, and a long position in the monthly spread is considered for the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures rose. Cost support was insufficient, and the supply - side pressure was difficult to reverse despite increased exports. Market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectations pushed up prices, but the upward momentum slowed. PTA's processing margin is expected to recover, and downstream polyester may reduce production [4] - Ethylene glycol had a large - scale position - reduction rebound. It is under long - term pressure but may see supply - demand improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it is driven by cost with over - capacity as a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's port inventory increased significantly. It may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward drivers in the long term. A long position in the 5 - 9 monthly spread is recommended [5] - Urea production enterprises reduced inventory, and the market was strong in the short term due to factors such as reduced production and stable demand [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure eased, but demand was weak, and it may operate at a low level [6] - Caustic soda showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash mainly showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was large, and it may face long - term supply - demand surplus. A strategy of shorting soda ash and longing glass in the 05 contract is recommended [7] - Glass showed a strong trend. Inventory pressure was large, demand was insufficient, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor. Platinum and palladium are also rated ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US Q3 GDP recorded 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, causing a temporary decline in gold and silver prices, which later recovered. Geopolitical risks in regions like the US - Venezuela and Israel - Iran have intensified, and the new all - time high of gold has strengthened the overall trend of precious metals [1] - Although the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued policies to increase margin requirements and limit positions for platinum and palladium, the actual delivery business will start on May 1, 2026, so long - position funds remain active. Long - position funds in the far - month contracts are crowded, and platinum and palladium hit the daily limit [1] - The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets has attracted wide attention. The price difference between domestic and foreign active contracts is expected to attract cross - market arbitrage funds when it exceeds 40 yuan/gram. The market is mainly driven by domestic funds, and the foreign platinum price has hit a new high. The upper price limit lacks a reference range, so focus on tracking capital movements. With the Christmas holiday approaching, foreign trading volume will decline, and attention should be paid to capital trends. Tonight, focus on the early - released US weekly initial jobless claims [1] Other Key Points from Related Information ADP Employment Report - In the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week [2] Statements from Trump and Fed Candidates - Trump said those who disagree with him will never become Fed chair [2] - Hassett, the next Fed candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Fed is far behind the curve on interest - rate cuts [2] Suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed should discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [3] Holiday Trading Suspensions - Due to the Christmas Eve holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 2:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the Brent crude oil futures contract trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end at 3:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the US Treasury bond futures contract trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end at 3:30 am Beijing time on the 25th [3]

| E 1 3/4 1 . | | | --- | --- | | - | | | 3 D | | | D | | | 1 | œ | | 1 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的闲 置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应收 紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 她缘政治风险仍在持续，进一步推高原油成本,并带动燃料油价格上行 ...