1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the market in a relatively balanced state and poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals declined today. The US ADP employment increase in December was slightly lower than expected but better than the previous value, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was better than expected and the previous value. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits, contract trading margin ratios, and price limit ranges for silver futures [1]. - Global geopolitical turmoil continues at the beginning of the year, and market sentiment leads to sharp volatility. Precious metals are testing resistance at previous highs. Consider participating in a breakout or waiting for volatility to decline before re - entering the market. Tonight, focus on the US weekly initial jobless claims data [1] 3. Other Key Information from the Report - The US Secretary of State will meet with Denmark next week to discuss Greenland issues [2] - Trump believes that the military budget in 2027 should be $1.5 trillion instead of $1 trillion [2] - China's gold reserves at the end of December were reported at 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces compared to the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold purchases [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and current investment prospects [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and available investment chances [1] - Timber: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and proper investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance of long and short trends and poor market operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each, and giving corresponding operation suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped significantly today with a large reduction in positions, and the recent rise was mainly driven by expectations. The downstream situation is average, and spot sales are normal with a stable - to - weak basis [2] - Although new cotton production has increased significantly, commercial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the sales progress is faster, providing strong support to the market. Demand remains stable during the off - season [2] - As of December 25th, cumulative processed lint reached 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15th, national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons [2] - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, with low finished - product inventory, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress is fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output, while Thailand's progress is slow and output is lower than expected [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In December in Guangxi, both production and sales decreased. December production was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons; sales were 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons; industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.21 million tons [3] - The significant drop in sales is due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If production cannot increase later, futures prices will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated at a high level. Spot prices remained stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, some soft - semi - commodity fruit farmers lowered their asking prices, and their willingness to sell increased [4] - Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and had less procurement of farmers' goods. Due to pre - Spring Festival stocking by merchants, cold - storage trading volume increased [4] - As of December 26th, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%. The destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17% [4] - The market trading logic has shifted to demand. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR dropped slightly, while the futures price of butadiene rubber BR rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices rose, and the port price of external butadiene continued to rise. The price of the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase [5] - Globally, natural rubber supply has entered the production - reduction period. In China, the Yunnan production area has completely stopped tapping, the Hainan production area is accelerating the stop of tapping, and the Vietnam production area will gradually stop later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with some plants under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise [5] - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to rise [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 54.83 million tons. Before the festival, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber continued to drop to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 4.13 million tons [5] - After the festival, demand is expected to recover, natural rubber supply will decrease, synthetic rubber supply will be stable, natural rubber inventory will continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory will continue to decline, cost support will strengthen, and market sentiment will weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. Attention should be paid to macro and capital trends [6] - As of January 8, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory continued to accumulate [6] - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, providing some support for softwood pulp. Recently, the external quotes of softwood and hardwood pulp have increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the rise of base - paper prices is relatively weak. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Externally, quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 5.65 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand has entered the off - season, and the outbound volume has decreased recently [7] - As of January 2nd, the total national port log inventory was 267 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The oil price is mainly in a downward trend with a loose supply - demand situation. Precious metals are affected by funds and geopolitical situations, and investors can consider participating in breakthroughs or waiting for re - entry opportunities. Various non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and financial products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and market emotions [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The current market is in a pattern of supply surplus and inventory accumulation. In 2026Q1, there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. The US - Venezuela situation may lead to an increase in Venezuelan oil production and exports if sanctions are relaxed. The oil price is in a downward trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical factors. Venezuelan supply fluctuations are a short - term issue, and the expected supply recovery may increase the surplus concern. Venezuelan heavy - product supply disruptions may support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: The northern spot price has stabilized, and the southern market shows signs of recovery. The cost may rise if the US maintains the blockade on Venezuela, but there is resistance if the raw - material risk is false [23] - **Urea**: The urea market is in a tight supply - demand situation in the short term. The production enterprises are reducing inventory. Although the daily output is expected to increase, the spring agricultural demand will limit the downward space [24] - **Methanol**: There are rumors of MTO device overhauls in East China, causing the methanol price to fall. Overseas device operation rates are low, and future imports are expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to the operation of coastal olefin devices and port inventory [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US economic data and policy adjustments affected the market. Geopolitical situations and funds are driving price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims data [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, the copper price dropped from a high level. Domestic copper market focuses on fundamentals, and the previous option combination strategy can still be held [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals declined as a whole. The Shanghai aluminum price was boosted by funds but failed to reach a historical high. The short - term trend deviates from fundamentals, and aluminum producers can consider selling for hedging [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the Shanghai aluminum price trend. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost in some areas may increase. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity remains stable, and the market is in surplus. The cash cost is expected to decrease, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment cools down [7] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc price is approaching a two - year high but is under pressure. The high price has a negative impact on consumption, and there is a risk of a phased correction [8] - **Lead**: The tax cost of recycled lead has increased, and there are still soft squeeze - out pressures. The price is facing upward pressure, but there are also concerns about inventory accumulation and price correction [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price adjusted overnight. The market is in a "buy - on - rising" mode. Stainless steel exports are accelerating inventory reduction, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the short term [10] - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin price decreased with reduced positions. The impact of Venezuelan tin exports is limited, and selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be considered [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price is oscillating at a high level. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream has some rigid - demand purchases. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is strong [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market funds are flowing out. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to high - level transactions [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price touched 9,000 yuan/ton and then fell. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The inventory has pressure, and the futures price may oscillate and correct [14] Steel and Related Products - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillates at night. The demand for thread is weak in the off - season, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is recovering. The steel mill profit is improving, and the iron - water output is stabilizing. The steel price may remain strong in the short term [15] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price oscillates. The global shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is weak, but there is rigid - replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to high - level fluctuations [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: - **Coke**: The price continued to rise last night. The production is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is rising. The downstream demand is still resilient, but there is pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise last night. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the production is slightly decreasing. The overall situation is similar to that of coke, with pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates upward. The manganese ore price is rising, and the inventory has a structural problem. The demand is seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price oscillates upward. Affected by policies, the cost is expected to decrease. The demand is still resilient, and the supply is decreasing significantly. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [20] Chemical Products - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: - **Pure Benzene**: The price rose slightly at night. The import is sufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26] - **Styrene**: The production and sales of enterprises are stable, but the raw - material cost is weak, which suppresses the price rebound [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The enterprises' sales are smooth, and the prices are rising. The downstream follows up well, but the factory's mentality is cautious [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: - **PVC**: Affected by the policy, the price is rising. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large. In 2026, the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the price center may rise [29] - **Caustic Soda**: The price oscillates strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand from alumina is still there, but the industry is in a loss. The rebound height may be suppressed [29] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell at night. The terminal demand is weak, and the polyester cash - flow is poor. The short - term external disturbances are increasing, and the PTA's main driver is the raw material [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic new - device production is approaching, and the overseas device shutdowns are increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure in the long term. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [31] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: - **Short - Fiber**: The enterprise inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak. The price follows the raw material. Band - trading can be considered according to the production and demand rhythm [32] - **Bottle - Chip**: The demand turns weak, and the price follows the raw material. There is new production in the short term, and there are over - capacity problems in the long term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: - **Soybean and Bean Meal**: The market expects the US soybean production to remain stable, and the global soybean production may decrease. South American weather is good, and the bean - meal price follows the US soybean price. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The macro - environment affects the prices. The soybean oil performs better than the palm oil. The palm - oil inventory may continue to accumulate, and the overall market is expected to oscillate [37] - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The domestic soybean market is boosted by the macro - environment and policy. The auction shows high premiums and high transaction rates. Attention should be paid to policies and the market [39] - **Rapeseed and Related Products**: The rapeseed and rapeseed - meal inventories of coastal oil mills are zero, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is decreasing. The market expects the China - Canada economic and trade relationship to improve, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [38] - **Corn**: The overall inventory of corn is low, and the number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises is small. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: The pig futures oscillate, and the spot price is slightly strong. The data on the number of sows is different. There is a risk of secondary fattening, but the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the price may have a secondary bottom in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The near - month egg futures are slightly strong, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. The egg - laying chicken inventory is expected to decrease in the first half of 2026. A long - position strategy for the first - half - year contracts is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price rose significantly yesterday, and the inventory is relatively low. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging, and long positions should be held with caution [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar production in India is fast, while in Thailand it is slow. The domestic Guangxi sugar production is slow, but there is an expected increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar may be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The cold - storage sales are increasing, but the quality is poor, and the high price may affect inventory reduction [45] - **Wood and Pulp**: - **Wood**: The price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp price fell slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase is limited. The port inventory is rising, and the needle - broad price difference is narrowing. A low - buying strategy is recommended [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The futures index contracts showed different trends, and all contracts were at a discount. The global risk assets are not significantly affected, and the stock index is expected to remain strong in the short term [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal. Attention should be paid to the central bank's operations and the yield - curve trend [49]

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ☆☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | ★☆☆ 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ☆☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周三沪铜高位震荡,晚间关注美国ADP就业、耐用品订单等数据。国内观铜103410元,上海贴水50元,精废价差 6000元。因跨年涨势快LME市场实值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The content mainly consists of data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related historical trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 50ETF price increased from 3.174 to 3.220 with corresponding daily price increases of 2.22%, 1.92%, and - 0.46%. The monthly IV increased from 12.81% to 15.24%, and the next - month IV from 14.41% to 16.87% [1] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 16.30%, 64.80%, 60.00% and 21.40%, 60.70%, 56.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 42.60%, 76.70%, 76.30% and 41.80%, 68.70%, 67.80% respectively [1] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 85.71 today, compared to 79.41 yesterday, 94.80 two days ago, 101.59 three days ago, and 92.86 four days ago [2] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2025/12/31 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.753 to 4.977, with corresponding daily price changes of - 0.42%, 1.91%, 1.55%, and - 0.38%. The monthly IV increased from 13.69% to 15.90%, and the next - month IV from 15.44% to 17.35% [3] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 28.10%, 46.90% and 29.00%, 47.00% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 45.90% and 47.70%, 67.00%, 62.50% respectively [3] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.17 today, compared to 88.31 yesterday, 98.98 two days ago, 103.24 three days ago, and 97.70 four days ago [5] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.921 to 4.977, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.95%, 1.52%, and - 0.38%. The monthly IV increased from 13.82% to 15.90%, and the next - month IV from 15.40% to 17.35% [6] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 22.40%, 44.80%, 55.50% and 26.30%, 47.40%, 54.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 46.70%, 59.80%, 69.40% and 45.80%, 58.20%, 64.30% respectively [6] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.95 today, compared to 84.27 yesterday, 96.64 two days ago, 97.26 three days ago, and 97.01 four days ago [11] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price increased from 7.792 to 7.999, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.78%, 4.92%, and 2.66%. The monthly IV increased from 18.07% to 21.09%, and the next - month IV from 19.10% to 21.53% [13] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 40.00%, 69.70%, 74.60% and 29.80%, 58.00%, 62.70% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 46.40%, 72.90%, 74.20% and 41.40%, 64.90%, 66.30% respectively [13] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 95.76 today, compared to 91.41 yesterday, 97.43 two days ago, 103.65 three days ago, and 99.36 four days ago [16] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price increased from 3.075 to 3.157, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.74%, 2.15%, and 0.51%. The monthly IV increased from 18.47% to 21.22%, and the next - month IV from 19.61% to 22.17% [20] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 42.00%, 68.50% and 33.90%, 60.30%, 74.60%, 63.50% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 49.70%, 72.10%, 74.60%, 68.00% and 45.00%, 65.70% respectively [20] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 103.24 today, compared to 96.54 yesterday, 89.04 two days ago, 86.53 three days ago, and 94.69 four days ago [25] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the ChiNext ETF price increased from 3.281 to 3.311, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.98%, 0.67%, and 0.24%. The monthly IV increased from 24.55% to 26.32%, and the next - month IV from 26.88% to 28.42% [26] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 43.60%, 59.50%, 59.10% and 48.00%, 60.70%, 60.30% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 57.80%, 65.80%, 69.10% and 64.90%, 68.40%, 63.00% respectively [26] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.31 today, compared to 90.34 yesterday, 96.58 two days ago, 95.66 three days ago, and 95.52 four days ago [32] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.515 to 3.542, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.83%, 1.08%, and - 0.31%. The monthly IV increased from 17.73% to 19.45%, and the next - month IV from 19.06% to 21.47% [36] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 31.80%, 49.70%, 57.50% and 34.10%, 50.50%, 55.20% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 44.70%, 56.50%, 67.00% and 48.40%, 56.60%, 65.70% respectively [36] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.01 today, compared to 92.19 yesterday, 97.30 two days ago, 101.19 three days ago, and 101.65 four days ago [39] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price increased from 1.479 to 1.520, with corresponding daily price increases of 4.38%, 1.76%, and 1.00%. The monthly IV increased from 27.09% to 28.95%, and the next - month IV from 29.59% to 32.00% [45] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 44.40%, 49.20%, 52.70%, 60.60% and 55.50%, 59.50%, 64.50%, 69.30% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 52.60%, 55.60%, 63.70%, 68.00% [45] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 84.76 today, compared to 81.12 yesterday, 91.56 two days ago, 96.21 three days ago, and 97.41 four days ago [47] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the STAR 50ETF price increased from 1.430 to 1.471, with corresponding daily price increases of 4.23%, 1.89%, and 0.96%. The monthly IV increased from 27.66% to 30.50%, and the next - month IV from 29.05% to 33.31% [50] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 47.70%, 51.70%, 51.00%, 59.10% and 62.80%, 65.00%, 64.90%, 70.10% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 57.50%, 60.10%, 70.00%, 73.50% [50] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 90.94 today, compared to 86.62 yesterday, 97.19 two days ago, 96.99 three days ago, and 96.38 four days ago [57] 3.10 300 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 300 Index price changed from 4717.746 to 4776.666, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.90%, 1.55%, and - 0.29%. The monthly IV increased from 13.52% to 15.34%, and the next - month IV from 15.84% to 17.73% [63] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 31.40%, 63.60%, 57.50% and 25.90%, 56.40% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 45.30%, 66.10%, 73.00% and 46.60%, 61.70%, 51.30%, 65.60% respectively [63] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 103.84 today, compared to 89.05 yesterday, 73.68 two days ago, 97.40 three days ago, and 105.72 four days ago [67] 3.11 1000 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 1000 Index price increased from 7753.880 to 7906.420, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.09%, 1.43%, and 0.53%. The monthly IV increased from 19.14% to 20.60%, and the next - month IV from 21.08% to 21.92% [68] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 36.30%, 54.60%, 52.60% and 21.20%, 34.90%, 31.00% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 44.80%, 63.20%, 55.10% and 26.50%, 46.80%, 35.50% respectively [68] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 98.78 today, compared to 90.94 yesterday, 95.62 two days ago, 111.32 three days ago, and 102.69 four days ago [72] 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 3099.746 to 3145.120, with corresponding daily price changes of 2.26%, 1.90%, and - 0.43%. The monthly IV increased from 12.42% to 15.54%, and the next - month IV from 56.52% to 68.21% [76] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 19.10%, 84.40% and 15.90%, 74.40%, 56.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 69.30%, 68.50%, 64.40% and 84.20%, 83.40%, 97.10%, 98.50% respectively [76] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [2][3][4] - Some products are expected to have supply - demand changes in the short - and medium - term, which will impact their prices [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Enterprises had smooth shipments and raised offers. Downstream demand was good, and the transaction center shifted upward [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose. For polyethylene, the market improved macroscopically after the holiday, and factors like cost support and reduced market supply increased trading activity. For polypropylene, stable or rising factory prices supported costs, and the pressure of spot circulation was controllable, but downstream factories were cautious [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures rose slightly. The spot price in East China rebounded, and trading in Shandong improved. Imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. Domestic supply increased, and downstream demand rose slightly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and a long spread trade can be considered in the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures continued to move sideways under the suppression of the half - year line. Production and sales of enterprises were stable, and the spot trading atmosphere was average. Export news supported market sentiment, but the continuous inventory build - up of raw material pure benzene suppressed the rebound [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA futures fluctuated widely, and positions decreased. Terminal demand weakened, and polyester cash flow was still poor. Before the Spring Festival,开工 is expected to decline, and demand has negative feedback pressure. In the short - term, external disturbances increase; in the medium - term, the strong expectation of PX remains, and PTA's main driver is raw materials [4] - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants are about to be put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down due to poor profitability. Polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and port inventory continues to accumulate. In the long - term, it is still under pressure, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short - fiber enterprises have low inventory, but downstream demand is weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Band trading can be carried out according to production and demand rhythms [4] - Demand for bottle chips has weakened. The price of the futures follows raw materials, and the spot price has loosened in some areas. There are new investments in the short - term and maintenance in the future. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and cost is the main driver [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market adjusted in a fluctuating manner. Overseas plant operating rates are low, and shipments in the Middle East have slowed down. South American supply is uncertain. High coastal inventory may suppress the market in the short - term, but imports are expected to decrease significantly in the medium - term, and the port is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5] - The urea market oscillated strongly. Gas - fired plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to rise slightly in the near future, and production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory. The supply - demand situation is temporarily tight, and the market is expected to be strong in the short - term [5] Chlor - Alkali - Affected by Shaanxi's policy on high - energy - consuming industries, PVC continued to rise. Maintenance scale decreased, supply increased, but downstream demand was weak. Production enterprises were reducing inventory, and social inventory pressure was high. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the price center is expected to rise [6] - Affected by Shaanxi's differential electricity price policy and positive macro sentiment, caustic soda oscillated strongly. The chlorine market is good, and integrated enterprises still have profits, supporting high - level operation of production. Alumina production is at a high level, but the industry is generally losing money. The future production reduction of alumina will suppress the rebound of caustic soda [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Driven by rising upstream costs and improved trading, soda ash rose strongly. The market sentiment led to inventory replenishment, and some enterprises stopped taking orders. Future supply pressure is high. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are expected to continue to reduce production capacity, and the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price changes; in the long - term, soda ash faces over - supply pressure [7] - Driven by positive macro sentiment, glass rose strongly. Recent spot trading was good. Four production lines were shut down recently, and all three types of fuel - based production lines are losing money. Future production capacity is expected to continue to be reduced. Processing orders are still weak, and demand is insufficient. The industry is expected to reduce production capacity in the long - term, and daily melting is expected to fall below 150,000 tons [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short term as the market sentiment warms up and the steel price follows the cost center upward, but the overall domestic demand is still weak [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and there is a risk of increased high-level volatility in the future, although there is still some rigid replenishment demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets face certain fundamental pressures after the price correction, but the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games on the disk [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the "anti-involution" impact [7]. - The ferrosilicon market is relatively strong, and it is also recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the "anti-involution" impact [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market rebounded significantly today. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel declined, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coil recovered, production increased synchronously, and inventory continued to decrease, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The steel mill's profit margin has been repaired, the blast furnace production reduction has slowed down significantly, and the molten iron has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose significantly today. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, and the domestic arrival volume increased month-on-month. The port inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak in the off-season, and although the steel mill's profitability improved recently, there was no obvious resumption of production in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, and there was still some rigid replenishment demand in the future [3]. Coke - The coke price hit the daily limit today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers purchase on demand in small quantities, and traders have average purchasing intentions. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, and although the downstream molten iron is at a seasonal low, the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The steel mill still has a strong intention to suppress raw material prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased, and the negative pressure on the price decreased slightly. The coking coal mine production decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and the completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production-side inventory decreased slightly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated upward today. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. The iron water production decreased seasonally on the demand side, the weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market fluctuated upward today. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increased, leading to a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the iron water production rebounded to a high level, the export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact was not significant. The metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

| 国投邮货 111 | | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 今日贵金属冲高回落。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延续，贵金属 牛市逻辑不改,资金情绪主导 ...

| 112 > 國投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 ☆☆☆ | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 今日原油下行。地缘消息对油价的影响边际趋弱,当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库阶段,EIA,IEA,OPEC均预 估202601全球面临较大累库压力。美委局势难以提供持续性基本面支撑，且美国行动意在接管委石油资源，若 后续制裁放松，外资进入,委油产量甚至可能增加。综上,油价仍将受共需宽松格局主导,维持中枢下行趋 势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 受隔夜原油市场疲软拖累,今日燃料油跟随成本端大幅低开,整体维持弱势运行。当前市场交易重心仍集中于 地缘因素对原料端的犹动:委内瑞拉局势引发的供应波动属短期交易题材,其远期供应恢复 ...