隔夜美元刷新近三年新低,贵金属延续反弹,不过在美国公布经济数据后有所回落。ISM制造业PM149、职位 空缺上升至去年11月以来最高水平均超预期，体现经济韧性。鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联 储选择保持耐心，无法断言7月降息是否为时过早，下一步行动将完全取决于数据表现。特朗普称不考虑延 长贸易谈判最后期限，随着即将到来的明确政策落地市场风险情绪面临波动,贵金属保持观望。 ★美国总统特朗普周二表示,他不考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的最后期限 -- 7月9日,并对能否与日 本达成协议表示怀疑。特朗普称："我们已经和日本打过交道了。我不确定我们能不能运成协议。我对比表 示怀疑。"特朗普表示，他可能会对从日本进口的商品征收"30%、35%或任何我们决定的数字"的关税，这 远高于他在4月2日宣布的24%的税率。 ★美国财政部长贝森特周二表示,他认为美联储会在秋季之前降息,最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 ★当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案，并提交众议院。美国众议院将于2日就法案 进行辩论和投票。由于参议院对该法案有较大修改,这项被特朗普称为"大而美"法案的修订法案现在将返 回众议院,需要得到众 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月02日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅上行，布伦特09合约涨0.98%。二季度全球石油库存累增1.6%，其中原油库存累 增1.1%、成品油库存累增2.4%;上周美国API原油库存超预期增加68万桶。伊以冲突停火后油价重 回宏观及供需逻辑主导，7月9日后美国对大部分国家的关税豁免、8月中旬后中美间24%对等关税豁 免,否延续仍构成宏观面风险,OPEC+快速增产预期之下供需展望仍偏宽松,原油近期以震荡偏弱 看待。关注布伦特重回57-67美元/桶、SC重回430-510元/桶区间后临近上边界的做空机会，风险点 在于旺季需求环比改善对累库预期的扭转程度。 【责金属】 隔夜美元刷新近三年新低，贵金属延续反弹，不过在美国公布经济数据后有所回落。ISM制造业 PM149、职位空缺上升至去年11月以来最高水平均超预期，体现经济韧性。鲍威尔讲话重申在经济 依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心。无法断言7月降息是否为时过早，下一步行动将完全取决于 数据表现。今日关注美国6月ADP就业。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜自1万美元整数关回撤部分涨幅，近期交投节奏跟随美元 ...

【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

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E Katha USDA种植面积报告和季度库存报告解读20250701 国投期货研究院 美国时间2025年6月30日,美国农业部发布了2025年夏季农作物种植面积报告和季度 库存报告。报告数据未发生重大方向性变化,美大豆和玉米种植面积较一季度预测值略 减,但幅度不大,报告偏中性。季度库存方面,较报告前预测值略增,两份报告对市场形 成小时级别压制,但整体影响不大。具体数据如下: 安如泰山 信守承诺 玉米方面,最新美国农业部预计2025年美国玉米种植面积为9520.3万英亩,3月31日 的一季度种植面积报告预估为9532.6万英亩,下降了0.13%。这一数字咯低于路透统计的 平均预测值9535万英亩,分析师预估范围在9375万英亩至9680万英亩之间。最新数据 9520.3万英亩的美玉米种植面积,为2013年以来玉米最大种植面积,历史第三高。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 | 2025年二季度USDA农作物季度库存 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 (単位: 亿蒲式耳） | 大豆 | 玉米 | 小麦 | | 2025年二季度 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending June 29, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% of the same period last year. The emergence rate was 94% and the flowering rate was 17%. The good-to-excellent rate remained flat [1]. - The good-to-excellent rate of U.S. corn was 73%, higher than the market expectation of 70%, up from 70% the previous week and 67% of the same period last year. The silking rate was 8%, indicating that the growth of U.S. corn continued to improve [1]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall and temperature in most soybean and corn - growing areas in the U.S. will be higher than the same - period average, which is conducive to the planting and growth of soybeans and corn. The market has entered the weather - trading window, and investors should pay close attention to the driving changes brought by weather changes from June to August. Since the U.S. weather has not deteriorated for the time being, there is still some room for future price increases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Soybean Data** - Good - to - excellent rate: 66% (current), 66% (previous week), 67% (same period last year), 67% (market expectation) [1]. - Emergence rate: 94% (current), 90% (previous week), 94% (same period last year) [1]. - Flowering rate: 17% (current), 18% (previous week), 16% (same period last year) [1]. - Seeding rate: 96% (current), 97% (previous week), 97% (same period last year), 98% (5 - year average) [1]. - **Corn Data** - Good - to - excellent rate: 73% (current), 70% (previous week), 67% (same period last year), 70% (market expectation) [1]. - Silking rate: 8% (current), 10% (previous week), 8% (same period last year) [1]. - Emergence rate: 97% (current), 98% (previous week), 96% (same period last year) [1]. - Seeding rate: 96% (current), 97% (previous week), 97% (same period last year), 98% (5 - year average) [1].

安如泰山 信守承诺 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 棉花：美棉种植面积高于预期，产量或存上调预期 美棉面积专题 美国农业部公布了2025年美棉的种植面积报告,种植面积高于此前市场的预期,2025年美棉的种植面积为1012 万英亩. 较2024年的种植面积减少9.5%，同比减少106.3万英亩,高于6月美国农业部月度供需报告的987万英 亩，报告公布之前市场的预估为973.5万英亩。2025年美棉陆地棉种植面积为994.9万英亩，同比减少102.7万英 亩，皮马棉种植面积为17.1万英亩，同比减少3.6万英亩。 目前美棉的种植基本结束，天气状况总体尚可，最新的优良率有所回升。截止6月29日，美棉15个棉花主要种植 州棉花种植率为95%，较去年同期慢2个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在98%，较近五年同期平均水平慢3个百分 点。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花优良率为51%，较去年同期高1个百分点，较五年均值高4个百分点。 美棉种植 接近完成，种植、现蕾、结铃进度同比小幅偏慢，主产区优良率回升至往年均值以上,德州亦明显回升。截至6 月24号，全美棉花种植面积中，仅仅只有3%有干旱的影响， ...

| Milli | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月01日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好,金价已回吐战争溢价。市场关注点转向关税谈 判和美联储,特朗普对关税延期不置可否,鲍威尔认为利率的变化仍取决于经济走向,关注本周一系列重要 数据验证，今晚将公布美国ISM制造业PMI和JOLTs职位空缺数。 ★特朗普再次抨击美联储,称"太迟先生"鲍威尔和整个美联储委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻;贝森特 表示特朗普考虑明年初任命鲍威尔的继任者，并暗示有现任理事是候选人。 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★美联储博斯蒂克：我仍然预计今年会有一次降息。预计明年将有三次降息，没有必要通 ...

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