Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral Outlook**: Soybean [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall trend of agricultural products shows a mixed pattern, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - The prices of some products are expected to follow the market situation, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors such as export, weather, and production season [3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - The main soybean contract rebounded after a short - term gap, and the contract is being shifted. The auction of soybeans by CGS in the middle of this week had a certain supporting effect on the price, and the price was stable and strong. It is necessary to continuously monitor the fundamentals and policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The de - stocking trend of soybean meal since December is difficult to continue. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The price of US soybean futures has fallen back to the previous bottom range. The price of soybean meal will follow the US soybean to fluctuate in the near future [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil continued to rebound, while soybean oil fell back after rising. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an improvement in exports and a decline in production, alleviating the negative atmosphere. US soybeans also rebounded after a recent decline [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market has seen rising meal and falling oil recently, but the overall fluctuation range is not large. The domestic coastal oil mills maintain a zero - pressing state. The import data in November shows that the trade between China and Russia in the rapeseed sector is getting closer. The rapeseed futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports have slowly declined. The downstream procurement has no obvious increase after the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures and spot markets have both risen slightly. It is expected that there will be a wave of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support the current pig price. In the medium - to - long term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year, and the main 03 contract price is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg contract has increased its position by more than 10,000 lots. The contracts corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival are weak, while the contracts from the second to the third quarter have increased in position and price. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9]

今日贵金属延续强势。近期美国数据有利于降息的延续，地缘方面以色列和伊朗、美国和委内瑞拉之间现紧 张氛围。黄金周一突破前高刷新历史新高，贵金属短期趋势得到强化。国内资金是铂祀多头主力，外盘跟涨 内盘为主,国内积极计价远月铂供不应求,推升内外价差,但内外盘合约月份不匹配,价格可比较性稍弱, 鉴于我国铂进口依赖度超八成，内外价差进一步扩大空间预计有限。 ★美联储理事米兰：支持降息50个基点的必要性有所减弱。若在明年1月31日前无人接替理事一职，可能会 继续留任。 ★据CNBC:熟悉情况的人士透露，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美联储主席。 ★乌美谈判结束,泽连斯基称"和平计划"初稿关键工作完成。 ★欧盟将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁措施再延长6个月， 至2026年7月31日。 | 国校期节 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月23日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨，棉花现货主流销售甚差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存同比基本持平，销售进度偏 快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月18号，国内棉花累计加工皮棉648.6万吨，同比增加 82.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加155.2万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存 ...

【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯期价触及5500元/吨后回落,华东现货价格小幅调整,山东地炼出货良好。周度开工小幅下降，港口库 存继续回升。后市有统苯装置检修及下游提负预期,供需压力或有所缓解,但甲苯歧化效益好转,供应有增长 预期，供需面驱动有限。明年上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 两烯期货主力合约日内宽幅震荡，整体偏弱运行。基本面上，部分一体化企业丙烯外放情况仍存，加之局部前 朗复工企业丙烯商品量计划外放,市场整体供应相对充裕。生产企业库存压力可控,稳市意愿或相对明显。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动,熊市格局延续。聚乙烯方面,供应端高负荷运行,库存去化缓慢。 下游开工不足，采购以刚需为主,新增订单寥寥,需求端持续乏力。市场多持观望态度,成交谨慎,供需矛盾 短期难有改善。聚丙烯方面,近期聚丙烯栓修装置部分重启,现货货源供应仍较为充裕,且随着天气降温,下 游部分行业进入淡季,预期需求转弱,市场情绪仍偏谨慎。 | 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月23日 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment. Different metals show different trends and investment suggestions. [2][3][4][7][9][10] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper showed a position - reducing and oscillating trend. Shanghai copper discount widened to 215 yuan, and Guangdong discount was 125 yuan. Yangshan copper premium rose to $55. At high copper prices, the spread between refined and scrap copper did not widen further. The market is concerned about trading sentiment during the New Year period, especially the tight concentrate supply in the first quarter. Hold a small number of long positions above 92,500 yuan. [2] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated. Spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China remained at - 170 yuan, - 330 yuan, and - 245 yuan respectively. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 22,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 300 tons. The fundamental contradiction in the aluminum market is still limited. The short - term market is macro - driven, and the loose trading continues. SHFE aluminum mainly follows the upward trend. Hold long positions with the 40 - day moving average as support and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,300 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated narrowly. Tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. Driven by the macro - environment, cast aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend at high levels. The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. The industry inventory continues to rise. The average full cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850 - 2,900 yuan, and the spot index has fallen to around 2,710 yuan. There is still a profit in cash - cost accounting. A mining enterprise in Guinea will lower the long - term contract price by $5 in the first quarter, and the alumina cost has room to decline. Alumina will be weak before large - scale production cuts, and the spot price is more likely to fall when the spread is large. [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position traders continued to cover their positions. The daily position of SHFE zinc weighted increased by 3,609 lots to 198,800 lots. The annual - line position has strong support, and the overall trend is still in a rebound. The LME zinc inventory is at the level of 99,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot discount is $33.43 per ton. The squeeze - out atmosphere of foreign capital has subsided, and the zinc export window has closed. In late December in China, more zinc smelters carried out maintenance. Downstream consumption declined in the short term due to environmental protection control in the north, but overall resilience still exists. Given the low consumption base in 2025, the consumption outlook in 2026 is not overly pessimistic. Coupled with the expected resonance of loose monetary policies between China and the US in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan per ton. [4] Lead - The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. Domestic primary lead smelters that had previously carried out maintenance are gradually resuming production. The consumption side has mixed news, and the upward momentum of lead is weak. The TC of lead concentrate remains stable at a low level, the price of waste batteries has stopped falling, and the cost support for recycled lead is still strong. The spread between refined and scrap lead is 50 yuan per ton. The domestic lead inventory is low, and the impact of incremental pressure still needs to be tracked. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan per ton. [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The market performance was triggered by the stop - loss orders of industrial short - position traders, and the irrational trend is expected to have limited sustainability. The news from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association last week triggered a surge in the nickel market. The nickel ore quota in 2026 will be reduced to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 380 million - ton quota in 2025, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be revised at the beginning of 2026. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,700 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel is resistant to decline, and the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 888 yuan per nickel point. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, but the market is still dominated by policy sentiment in the short term. The pure nickel inventory increased by 260 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons. Wait for the end of market fluctuations and mainly wait and see in the short term. [7] Tin - SHFE tin oscillated and closed up slightly with a small reduction in positions. In November in China, the import volume of tin concentrate in metal tons continued to recover, with increasing volumes from the DRC and Myanmar. High tin prices continue to suppress consumption. In terms of inventory, the inventories in both domestic and foreign markets are high. The market shows strong resonance between volume and price. Emphasize the high - level risks. [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose again, and the market trading was active. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan, and the spread between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 2,650 yuan. The sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices has led to a continuous rise in lithium ore prices. However, due to the market's lack of confidence in maintaining high prices of lithium carbonate, the trading enthusiasm at the current high level is limited. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,500 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 51,000 tons. The mid - stream sector is enthusiastic, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,385, and the ore - end quotation remains strong. The futures price of lithium carbonate is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong. Short - position traders are relatively under pressure. [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon strengthened again, closing above 8,700 yuan per ton. There are repeated rumors about the shutdown of northern production areas before the end of the month. In the spot market, the weekly production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rates in other production areas in the southwest and northwest remained stable. On the demand side, due to the implementation of joint emission reduction in December, the operating rate of silicone decreased significantly compared to November, and the weekly output has shown a slight recovery. After large - scale production cuts in November, the operating rate of polysilicon decreased limitedly in December. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon decreased significantly, but the downstream raw material inventory increased, and the factory inventory in Xinjiang has the pressure of inventory accumulation. In summary, the demand for industrial silicon is under pressure, and the futures price is strongly oscillating due to the expectation of end - of - month production cuts. [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon continued to decline slightly. Due to the adjustment of trading rules and the strong performance of other metals, the market sentiment has cooled down. After the establishment of the purchase - reserve platform, the market is still waiting for further plans. In the spot market, the price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material decreased slightly today, with an average price of 52,350 yuan per ton. There is no news of transactions for the previous high - price quotations of manufacturers. Driven by the expected increase in the costs of silver and silicon raw materials, the quotation of downstream battery cells has increased to 0.34 yuan per watt, but there has been no actual transaction. The factory inventory of polysilicon remains at a high level of 293,000 tons. In summary, there is still an expectation of capacity adjustment for polysilicon, but the high inventory in the short term and the downstream production - cut situation have hindered the increase in the spot price of polysilicon. The trading sentiment in the futures market has cooled down. The increase in the new delivery factory warehouses and the maximum amount of warehouse receipts indicates that if the futures price fails to effectively break through 60,000 yuan per ton in the short term, it will maintain an oscillating trend. [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, meaning a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors, such as the Venezuela situation and Ukraine's attacks on Russian ships, cause short - term price rebounds in the energy market, but the long - term trend is dominated by the supply - demand relationship, with prices generally under pressure due to supply - side factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela lead to a pulse - style "risk premium" trade, pushing up oil prices. However, the potential global supply shortage caused by a single - country supply interruption is limited. The attacks on Russian ships by Ukraine add supply risk. Although US shale oil drilling and fracturing activities are at multi - year lows, production remains at a high level this year. Geopolitical premiums provide short - term rebound power, while the long - term trend is a downward shift in the oil price center due to future supply - demand looseness [3] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up crude oil costs, causing fuel oil prices to rise. The demand side lacks a clear upward driver, and the supply side is the main trading focus. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and structural oversupply. Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but mid - term supply is loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly affected by the operating status of refinery units, with expected marginal increases from unit maintenance and return, and is likely to continue a weak performance [4] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons, at a near - four - year low. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased, with the factory inventory ending a de - stocking trend. Although the supply - demand situation is marginally looser, positive news boosts the price. Geopolitical conflicts provide short - term rebound power, but the long - term trend is price pressure due to supply - demand looseness [5]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group, dated December 23, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly, with the factor strength of precious metals remaining high and that of the agricultural products sector decreasing slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the agricultural products sector is relatively weak [3] Summary by Commodity Category Overall Commodity Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals factor strength remained high, and the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The relatively strong cross - sectional sectors are precious metals and non - ferrous metals, while the agricultural products sector is relatively weak [3] Specific Commodity Analysis Metals - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold increased slightly, and the marginal increase in silver's trading volume was greater, remaining in a relatively strong range. The divergence at both ends of the cross - section widened [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, the divergence of the term structure narrowed, and both copper and tin were relatively strong in the cross - section [3] - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. The trading volumes of iron ore and rebar remained neutral, while those of coking coal and coke remained at a high level [3] Energy and Chemicals - The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemicals sector rebounded, and soda ash was at the short end of the cross - section [3] Agricultural Products - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals narrowed. Although the downward trend at the time - series momentum level weakened marginally, the trading volume was at a recent low [3] Strategy Net Worth and Fundamental Factors Methanol - Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.02%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. On the fundamental factors, import methanol arrivals and domestic road freight prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased, sending a short signal on the demand side; methanol ports continued to destock last week, and the long signal on the inventory side continued; the spot price of inland methanol fell, while that of port methanol was relatively strong, and the spread side was neutral [5] Float Glass - Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, and the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%. The synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short. On the fundamental factors, the start - up of float glass enterprises was flat month - on - month, the supply side was neutral; the number of second - tier city commercial housing transactions increased, the demand side was slightly long; float glass enterprises in Hebei and Hubei slightly accumulated inventory, the long strength on the inventory side weakened and turned neutral; the daily after - tax gross profit loss of pipeline - gas - made float glass increased, and the short signal on the profit side continued [8] Iron Ore - Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained neutral. The supply side turned to a short feedback but the signal remained neutral; the demand side's long feedback weakened and the signal turned neutral; the inventory side's signal changed from short to neutral; the short feedback on the spread side weakened slightly and the signal remained neutral [10] Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from short to long. The supply side signal changed from short to neutral; the inventory side signal changed from neutral to long; the spread side signal changed from short to long [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1]. - It presents the closing prices and weekly price changes of different asset classes including commodities, A - shares, overseas stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange as of December 19, 2025. - It summarizes the mainstream strategy views and investment logics of institutions for different commodity sectors, including both bullish and bearish factors [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From December 15 to December 19, 2025, commodities like coking coal, PTA, and polysilicon had significant price increases, with coking coal rising 9.00% to 1108.00, PTA rising 5.81% to 4882.00, and polysilicon rising 5.34% to 60245.00. While some commodities such as copper, soybean meal, and corn had price drops, with copper dropping 1.05% to 93180.00, soybean meal dropping 1.26% to 2735.00, and corn dropping 1.84% to 2192.00 [2]. - **A - shares**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index dropped 0.28% to 4568.18, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.32% to 3004.34, and the CSI 500 index remained unchanged at 7169.55 [2]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100 index rose 2.57% to 9897.42, the French CAC40 index rose 1.03% to 8151.38, while the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.10% to 25690.53, and the Nikkei 225 index dropped 2.61% to 49507.21 [2]. - **Bonds**: The 2 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 0.38bp to 1.39, the 5 - year yield increased by 0.24bp to 1.61, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.44bp to 1.83 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.32% to 98.71, the US dollar central parity rate dropped 0.12% to 7.06, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate dropped 0.28% to 1.17 [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 are neutral. Bullish factors include overseas central bank policies, increased long - term capital allocation after index correction, market attention on tech stocks, and expected policy dividends in 2026. Bearish factors are the decline in M1 growth rate, weakening policy motivation, weak economic momentum, and time - consuming policy implementation [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are weak fundamentals, central bank liquidity injection, attractive 30 - year bond yields, and potential market repair. Bearish factors are low probability of short - term interest rate cuts, increased influence of trading desks, and concerns about ultra - long bond supply and demand [3]. 3.2.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 5 are bearish, and 3 are neutral. Bullish factors are supply disruptions in Venezuela, decreased US crude and Cushing inventories, increased refinery capacity utilization in China and the US, and strong local refined oil demand. Bearish factors are limited impact of Venezuelan supply disruptions, increasing non - OPEC production, rising floating storage, and expected slowdown in major economies' demand [4]. 3.2.3 Agriculture - **Soybean Meal**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are high US soybean import costs, pre - holiday stocking demand, increased trader restocking, and signs of short - position reduction in futures. Bearish factors are the expected high - yield in South American soybeans, poor performance of domestic soybean auctions, high oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and weak feed - enterprise purchasing [4]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are zero long - term processing fees in 2026, low spot refining fees, rising copper foil production rates, decreased domestic copper concentrate port inventories, and high market attention. Bearish factors are year - end capital shortages, increased social inventories, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and low copper rod production rates [5]. 3.2.5 Chemicals - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 are neutral. Bullish factors are potential cold - repair plans in late December, low near - month valuations and high positions, and expected real - estate policy support. Bearish factors are decreased deep - processing order days, slow sales in North and East China, high inventories, and off - season pressure [5]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are the rising US unemployment rate in November, lower - than - expected US CPI in November, increased non - commercial net long positions in gold futures, and long - term central - bank gold purchases. Bearish factors are the rapid adjustment of the gold - silver ratio, approaching key resistance levels, and market divergence on the Fed's interest - rate cut schedule [6]. 3.2.7 Black Metals - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 are neutral. Bullish factors are the release of supply - side pressure, low valuations, production cuts by some coal mines, increased steel - mill winter - stocking demand, and improved spot - market trading. Bearish factors are high imports from Ganqimaodu Port, decreased steel - mill iron - water production, lower demand from coking plants, and increased total coking - coal inventories [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals and industrial silicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and price trends, and providing corresponding trading suggestions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper reached a high, with strong support from short - term moving averages and potential resonance sentiment. Overseas, investment banks continued to raise next year's copper target and average prices [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Last week, the turning signal of domestic refined copper spot amplified. Attention should be paid to the spot discount range. The global copper ore supply may be tight in Q1 next year [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Peru extended the informal mining license for one year. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,500 tons to 160,400 tons, with a slight premium of $4 for LME - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: Hold a small number of long positions in Shanghai copper relying on 92,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The ktis mine in Guinea resumed production, and the long - term CIF price in Q1 decreased by about $5 to $66.5/ton. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained at 95.9 million tons, with significant over - supply [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was above 4.2 million tons, and the second - phase of Inner Mongolia's Zhashan project was officially put into operation on December 20 [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.36 to 61.5%. In November, the aluminum product export was 1.885 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 4,000 tons to 600,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 4,000 tons to 123,000 tons. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanded significantly [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. Short - term macro factors dominate. Follow the long - term long positions relying on the 40 - day line [1]. Zinc - **Trend**: Last week, there was a large - scale delivery in the zinc market, and the structure changed from backwardation to contango. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio was slightly revised upwards, and the zinc spot export window was completely closed [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 99,900 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month discount of $30.61/ton. Some smelters had a strong willingness to reduce production due to losses, and the smelter maintenance in late December expanded [1]. - **Consumption**: As the price rebounded, downstream acceptance weakened. Zinc consumption declined periodically. The social inventory of zinc slightly increased to 124,500 tons on Monday [1]. - **Trend**: The difference between domestic and overseas fundamentals narrowed. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: The lead import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure was smoothly transmitted to the domestic market. The main contract range was 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory was at a high level of 258,600 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month spot discount of $45.23/ton. The supply - side pressure increased slightly. The profit margin of secondary lead smelters was compressed [1]. - **Consumption**: Lead prices were stronger domestically than overseas. Battery exports were under pressure, but the demand for automotive batteries was okay, and the demand for lead - acid batteries in data centers and energy storage was expected to increase steadily [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are neutral. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, and the trading was active. Shanghai stainless steel rebounded similarly, with moderate trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The news from the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association affected the market. The downstream procurement willingness may be strong at the end of the year, but the spot trading was cold. Stainless steel was in a wait - and - see state [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 6,700 yuan, and the inventory of nickel increased by 200 tons to 59,000 tons. The stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Wait for the end of policy disturbances and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: The capital sentiment in the tin market was concentrated in Shanghai tin, following the trading sentiment of precious metals and copper [1]. - **Supply**: There was no clear clue about the supply in the southern part of Congo (Kinshasa). Indonesia's January export volume reached a two - year high. The domestic tin ore import continued to recover [1]. - **Consumption**: High tin prices continued to suppress consumption. The LME and domestic social inventories increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount to the delivery month [1]. - **Trend**: The market has strong volume resonance. Emphasize the high - level risks. The supply in traditional production areas is expected to resume in 2026, while the consumption may be over - estimated in some sectors [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price rose significantly, with active trading. The trigger was the news of canceling some warrants [1]. - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate was reported at 99,000 yuan, and the price difference between industrial and battery - grade was 2,650 yuan. The industry maintained both supply and demand, and the de - stocking trend continued but at a slower pace [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall demand maintained strong resilience. The downstream demand declined slightly, but the demand for power batteries remained high [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons. The price of Australian ore remained strong [1]. - **Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, with overall strong fundamentals and relatively tight short positions [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price increase was obvious, with a significant resistance at 8,700 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang remained stable [1]. - **Cost**: The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 30 yuan/ton, and other raw materials were basically stable [1]. - **Supply**: The production reduction of some silicon enterprises in the north was limited. The output in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rate in the southwest remained flat [1]. - **Demand**: The average price of organic silicon DC rose to 13,600 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate stabilized in December [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was about 553,000 tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 8,000 tons. The inventory of downstream raw materials increased [1]. - **Trend**: The market is waiting for the end - of - December trend. The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are under pressure, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: After breaking through the 60,000 - yuan/ton mark, the price decreased with a reduction in positions. The spot price remained stable at 52,400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon in December decreased slightly. The downstream silicon wafer production decreased significantly by 18% month - on - month, and the industry operating rate remained at about 41% [1]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 293,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The change in exchange rules cooled the sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still under pressure, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space [1].

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