Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory reduction accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand during the off-season [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Weekly Data - **Rebar**: Weekly production was 39.184 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.71%; factory inventory was 14.006 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.52%; social inventory was 29.419 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.81%; total inventory (factory + social) was 43.425 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.29%; weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 20.268 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.96% [1] - **Wire Rod**: Weekly production was 774,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 43.32%; factory inventory was 805,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 72.33%; social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10.60%; total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13.50% [1] - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: Weekly production was 1.63 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.90%; factory inventory was 3.0704 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.76% [1] - **Cold-Rolled Coil**: Weekly production was 864,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%; factory inventory was 392,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.69%; social inventory was 1.2425 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.88%; total inventory was 1.6348 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.19% [1] - **Medium Plate**: Weekly production was 823,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.50%; factory inventory was 1.1372 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.30%; social inventory was 1.5978 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.02% [1] - **Total of Five Varieties**: Weekly production was 8.7256 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.15%; total inventory was 12.5799 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.67% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory continued to be depleted. The demand for hot-rolled coils recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory depletion accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand during the off-season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Production, Inventory, and Consumption Data**: - For all five major steel products combined, the weekly production was 872.56 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.15 million tons. The total inventory (factory + social) was 1257.99 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.29 million tons. The weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 833.61 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.11 million tons [1]. - Rebar: The weekly production was 39.29 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.71 million tons. The factory inventory was 140.06 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.52 million tons. The social inventory was 294.19 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.81 million tons. The total inventory was 434.25 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.29 million tons. The weekly consumption was 202.68 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.96 million tons [1]. - Wire rod: The weekly production was 77.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.32 million tons. The factory inventory was 80.52 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.16 million tons. The social inventory was 296.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.60 million tons. The total inventory was 377.22 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 13.50 million tons. The weekly consumption was 43.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.42 million tons [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: The weekly production was 307.04 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8.76 million tons. The factory inventory was 163.48 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 million tons. The social inventory was 196.02 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.80 million tons. The total inventory was 359.50 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.61 million tons. The weekly consumption was 86.67 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 million tons [1]. - Cold-rolled coil: The weekly production was 86.48 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.39 million tons. The factory inventory was 39.23 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.69 million tons. The social inventory was 124.25 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.88 million tons. The total inventory was 163.48 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 million tons. The weekly consumption was 86.67 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 million tons [1]. - Medium plate: The weekly production was 82.3 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons. The factory inventory was 113.72 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 million tons. The social inventory was 159.78 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.02 million tons. The total inventory was 273.50 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.72 million tons. The weekly consumption was 79.68 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.88 million tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the energy market have increased, causing concerns about supply disruptions, but the overall fundamental situation of loose supply remains unchanged. Geopolitical factors mainly provide short - term rebound momentum, and the market may shift focus to the core logic of "price center decline" driven by the long - term loose supply - demand pattern [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US seized multiple oil tankers, over a dozen fully - loaded oil tankers in Venezuelan waters are awaiting new instructions from shipowners. Russian Black Sea port terminals were attacked, and bad weather has slowed down the repair progress. Kazakhstan's CPC blended crude oil exports in December will drop to the lowest level in 14 months [3] - Although the drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry have reached a multi - year low, US crude oil production remains at a high level this year due to the time - lag in production adjustment [3] - Geopolitical conflicts have led to concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but the fundamental situation of loose supply remains the main theme. Geopolitical fluctuations are more likely to provide short - term rebound momentum [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The current trading logic of fuel oil mainly focuses on the supply side. Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and maritime logistics have led to a reduction in year - end exports, and the受阻 Venezuelan exports pose a potential threat to heavy crude oil supply. Short - term geopolitical factors will still support prices, but both on - land inventories and floating storage at sea are at a high level and continue to accumulate, so the main logic in the medium term is loose supply [4] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has recently shown an increasing trend. The Dangote RFCC unit has entered maintenance, and the Azur CDU unit is planned to restart before the end of the year, both of which will bring marginal supply increments. Under this pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue its weak operation pattern [4] - In 2026, the first batch of export quotas for refined oil is 19 million tons and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 8 million tons, the same scale as the first batch of quotas in 2025 [4] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. In particular, factory inventories ended the continuous destocking trend since mid - October and showed an inflection point of inventory accumulation [5] - The marginal supply - demand situation of asphalt is loose, but positive news has significantly boosted the market. As the US continues to intercept Venezuelan oil tankers, oil prices have rebounded from the low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt may also strengthen. Both factors will boost asphalt from the cost side. Geopolitical conflicts are more likely to provide short - term rebound momentum, and asphalt will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by loose supply - demand [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold, silver, and palladium are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recent Fed easing prospects and geopolitical risks in Venezuela, Israel, and other regions have supported the strength of precious metals, with each variety hitting new highs and forming a resonant breakthrough [1] - After the short - term sharp rise, market volatility will increase during the Christmas holiday when the overseas market is closed, so attention should be paid to position control [1] - In 2026, platinum is expected to remain in short supply, and the supply gap of palladium will narrow significantly. The supply side of both is fragile. With a long time until delivery, funds are actively bullish on the future price of platinum, and the price difference between platinum and palladium exceeds 130 yuan/gram [2] - In the bull market cycle of precious metals, funds have strong control, and the mid - line strategy is to increase positions on dips. The implied volatility (IV) of platinum and palladium options continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Geopolitical and Policy News - US officials suggest they prefer sanctions over military action against Venezuela [3] - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved, and Russia wants to modify the US proposal [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggests a possible further interest rate hike next year and expresses increasing confidence in achieving the sustainable price target [3] Market Performance - The preparation for the delivery of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is progressing smoothly. The overnight overseas palladium price plunged, and panic spread. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened lower with a gap. Palladium fluctuated weakly near the daily limit, while platinum opened low and closed higher, with strong long - short competition among funds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing investment ratings and operational suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory factors of each commodity [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise today, with stable overall spot sales. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand remained stable in the off - season. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing reached 648.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 82.0 million tons. As of December 15, commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished product inventory was not high. Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong upward trend, and industries could consider hedging opportunities, with a strategy of buying on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, after the rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas was low, which might lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year. However, rainfall increased in December. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. In November, Guangxi's sugar production progress was slow, and the output decreased year - on - year. In November, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limited the rebound of sugar prices. In the long term, there was a possibility of production reduction in major producing countries next year, and weather conditions should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods for the market and bought less from fruit farmers. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The de - stocking volume was 70,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.86%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers might affect the de - stocking speed. Currently, demand was in the off - season, and the overall demand decreased. The reluctance to sell also affected the sales speed, increasing the bearish sentiment in the market. The operation strategy was to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - number rubber (NR) rose, while the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) fell. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the external butadiene port price rose, and the Thai raw material market price mostly fell. Globally, natural rubber supply was entering the low - production period, with Yunnan and Hainan in China and Vietnam gradually stopping production. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased significantly, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. Last week, China's tire operating rate decreased slightly, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 515,200 tons, while the domestic butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 433,000 tons. The strategy was to expect a rebound in RU&NR and to wait and see for BR [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp prices fell today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space was restricted. As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of major Chinese paper pulp ports was 1.993 million tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of paper pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supported softwood pulp, and the external quotes of both increased recently. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for刚需, and the increase in raw paper prices was relatively weak. The paper pulp market was highly competitive. The operation strategy was to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. The external quote decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.17%. Although it was the off - season, the average daily outbound volume remained above 60,000 cubic meters, indicating fair demand. As of December 19, the total port log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41%. The low inventory supported the price, and the operation strategy was to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are provided as follows: Thread steel (★★★), Hot-rolled coil (not clearly marked), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Ferro-silicon (★★☆), Silico-manganese (not rated in the presented content) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of black metals shows different trends. The short - term trends of most products are likely to be volatile. The market sentiment is cautious, and the impact of macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals needs to be closely watched [2][3][4] Summaries According to Product Categories Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel declined, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decrease. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory reduction accelerated, but pressure still remained. Iron - water production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, and the decline in steel - mill production may slow down. The domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high, and the impact of license management is yet to be observed. The short - term trend of the steel market is expected to be slightly stronger while volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is volatile today. The global shipment is strong, and there is an expectation of year - end rush, so overseas shipments are expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory increased significantly at the beginning of the week. In the demand side, the terminal demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production has been decreasing due to environmental protection. However, considering the large previous reduction and stable steel - mill profits, the reduction speed is expected to slow down. Steel - mill inventories are low, with a certain restocking expectation. The iron - ore fundamentals are relatively loose, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke price is volatile today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream and traders having limited purchasing willingness. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is seasonally decreasing, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. The steel - mill profit is average, with a strong willingness to lower raw - material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and there are expectations for stimulus policies, so the price is likely to be volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is mainly volatile today. Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to safety production and completed annual production tasks. The production of coking coal decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly, while the terminal inventory increased. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory also increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is seasonally decreasing, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. The steel - mill profit is average, with a strong willingness to lower raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount is repaired, there is still fundamental pressure. However, due to expectations for stimulus policies, the price is likely to be volatile [6] Silico - manganese - The silico - manganese price is strongly volatile today. Driven by the futures rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese - ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silico - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase, and the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. The iron - water production decreased seasonally, the weekly production of silico - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution". It is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7] Ferro - silicon - The ferro - silicon price is strongly volatile today. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee increases, and there are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The iron - water production rebounded to a high level, the export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. The production of magnesium increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, so the overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of ferro - silicon decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution". It is recommended to try to go long at low prices [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]

�� 闯然閲츠 黒金研投团队 钢市周周浏 2025/12/25 单位: 万吨 周产量 环比 厂内库存 环比 社会库存 环比 厂库+社库 环比 周消费量(未包括进出口) 环比 �要约 184 39 2.71 140 06 0 52 294 19 -18.81 434 25 -18.29 202.68 -5 96 43.32 72.33 -2.84 -1.69 43.7 -3.42 87.02 -5.11 -3.41 线材 77.44 293.54 80.52 296.7 -10.60 377.22 -13.50 热卷 1.63 -2.90 307.04 8.76 冷卷 86.48 0.39 39.23 1.69 124.25 -1.88 163.48 -0.19 86.67 -0.04 160.08 0.80 196.02 中板 -3.04 82.3 -0.50 113.72 0.30 159.78 -1.02 796.82 385.43 -2.88 -33.91 -36.79 合计 -1.15 872.56 1257.99 833.61 -1.67 数据简评：本同螺纹表需有所下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存延续去 ...