Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

| 11/12 | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | なな女 | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 瓶片 | | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 甲醇主力合约震荡调整。伊以冲突期间中东主力区域码头几乎未停止装船,装船减量 ...

E Katha USDA种植面积报告和季度库存报告解读20250701 国投期货研究院 美国时间2025年6月30日,美国农业部发布了2025年夏季农作物种植面积报告和季度 库存报告。报告数据未发生重大方向性变化,美大豆和玉米种植面积较一季度预测值略 减,但幅度不大,报告偏中性。季度库存方面,较报告前预测值略增,两份报告对市场形 成小时级别压制,但整体影响不大。具体数据如下: 安如泰山 信守承诺 玉米方面,最新美国农业部预计2025年美国玉米种植面积为9520.3万英亩,3月31日 的一季度种植面积报告预估为9532.6万英亩,下降了0.13%。这一数字咯低于路透统计的 平均预测值9535万英亩,分析师预估范围在9375万英亩至9680万英亩之间。最新数据 9520.3万英亩的美玉米种植面积,为2013年以来玉米最大种植面积,历史第三高。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 | 2025年二季度USDA农作物季度库存 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 (単位: 亿蒲式耳） | 大豆 | 玉米 | 小麦 | | 2025年二季度 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending June 29, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% of the same period last year. The emergence rate was 94% and the flowering rate was 17%. The good-to-excellent rate remained flat [1]. - The good-to-excellent rate of U.S. corn was 73%, higher than the market expectation of 70%, up from 70% the previous week and 67% of the same period last year. The silking rate was 8%, indicating that the growth of U.S. corn continued to improve [1]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall and temperature in most soybean and corn - growing areas in the U.S. will be higher than the same - period average, which is conducive to the planting and growth of soybeans and corn. The market has entered the weather - trading window, and investors should pay close attention to the driving changes brought by weather changes from June to August. Since the U.S. weather has not deteriorated for the time being, there is still some room for future price increases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Soybean Data** - Good - to - excellent rate: 66% (current), 66% (previous week), 67% (same period last year), 67% (market expectation) [1]. - Emergence rate: 94% (current), 90% (previous week), 94% (same period last year) [1]. - Flowering rate: 17% (current), 18% (previous week), 16% (same period last year) [1]. - Seeding rate: 96% (current), 97% (previous week), 97% (same period last year), 98% (5 - year average) [1]. - **Corn Data** - Good - to - excellent rate: 73% (current), 70% (previous week), 67% (same period last year), 70% (market expectation) [1]. - Silking rate: 8% (current), 10% (previous week), 8% (same period last year) [1]. - Emergence rate: 97% (current), 98% (previous week), 96% (same period last year) [1]. - Seeding rate: 96% (current), 97% (previous week), 97% (same period last year), 98% (5 - year average) [1].

安如泰山 信守承诺 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 棉花：美棉种植面积高于预期，产量或存上调预期 美棉面积专题 美国农业部公布了2025年美棉的种植面积报告,种植面积高于此前市场的预期,2025年美棉的种植面积为1012 万英亩. 较2024年的种植面积减少9.5%，同比减少106.3万英亩,高于6月美国农业部月度供需报告的987万英 亩，报告公布之前市场的预估为973.5万英亩。2025年美棉陆地棉种植面积为994.9万英亩，同比减少102.7万英 亩，皮马棉种植面积为17.1万英亩，同比减少3.6万英亩。 目前美棉的种植基本结束，天气状况总体尚可，最新的优良率有所回升。截止6月29日，美棉15个棉花主要种植 州棉花种植率为95%，较去年同期慢2个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在98%，较近五年同期平均水平慢3个百分 点。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花优良率为51%，较去年同期高1个百分点，较五年均值高4个百分点。 美棉种植 接近完成，种植、现蕾、结铃进度同比小幅偏慢，主产区优良率回升至往年均值以上,德州亦明显回升。截至6 月24号，全美棉花种植面积中，仅仅只有3%有干旱的影响， ...

| Milli | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月01日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好,金价已回吐战争溢价。市场关注点转向关税谈 判和美联储,特朗普对关税延期不置可否,鲍威尔认为利率的变化仍取决于经济走向,关注本周一系列重要 数据验证，今晚将公布美国ISM制造业PMI和JOLTs职位空缺数。 ★特朗普再次抨击美联储,称"太迟先生"鲍威尔和整个美联储委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻;贝森特 表示特朗普考虑明年初任命鲍威尔的继任者，并暗示有现任理事是候选人。 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★美联储博斯蒂克：我仍然预计今年会有一次降息。预计明年将有三次降息，没有必要通 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月01日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 文☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜下午盘主力合约增仓拉涨至8.06万。今日现铜报80205元，上海铜升水200元，广东升水涨至90元，精 废价差仍在2100元。7月LME香港库启用,关注由此带来的物流影响。晚间关注欧美6月制造业PM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

国投期货研究院 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好，金价回吐战争溢价，市场关注点将转 向关税谈判和美联储。特朗普对关税延期不置可否,鲍威尔认为利率的变化仍取决于经济走向,关 注本周一系列重要数据验证，今晚将公布美国ISM制造业PMI和JOLTs职位空缺数。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，美元指数因财政法案与7月降息概率延续弱势，同时，加拿大取消数字关 税,美股再创历史新高。沪铜夜盘阳线,昨日现铜79990元,上海铜升水130元,精废价差扩至2100 元以上，SMM社库12.61万吨。技术上，短线沪铜涨势可能打开到8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关 注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。周初铝锭铝棒社库较上周四小幅增加,华东现货升水继续下降30元至70元,华南铝 棒加工费跌至负值,终端消费前置和淡季负反馈初步显现。近期宏观风险偏好向好推动有色强势, 沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位显示市场分歧大, 警惕阶段性回调风险。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月01日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续震荡偏弱走势，布伦特09合约涨0.44%。伊以冲突降温后原 ...

| Million | > 國授期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月30日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉冲高回落，国内棉花成交一般，基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈。下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳,下游需求偏弱或限制郑棉的高度。截至6月15号,棉花商业库存为312.69万吨,较5月底减少33.18万吨,消化仍然 良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万吨。进口 ...