Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月25日 【原油】 继美国接连扣押油轮后,目前委内瑞拉海域有十余艘满载油轮正等待船东的新指示。俄罗斯黑海塔 口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水 平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量 仍维持在年内高位。她缘冲突多发引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,地缘 扰动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 (责金属) 【铜】 隔夜铜价震幅扩大，沪铜加权减仓，海外资金圣诞休市。国内现货背离加大，昨日上海铜贴水扩至 310元，短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 导，且价差利于出口。一季度合约多配需求持续性强，前期多单持有依托位上调到9.4万，同时建议 设置主动止盈位。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝回落。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限，社库窄幅波动，表观需求并无亮眼表现。近期宽松交易 延续，贵金属和有色多品种创新高，沪铝跟涨为主，圣诞节假期来临资金有离场迹象，沪铝在前高 位置仍具备阻力、多头背靠40日线持有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, yet limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bearish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Timber: Not clearly rated, with the symbol being unclear [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, yet limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the market conditions, including supply, demand, and inventory, for various soft commodities such as cotton, sugar, and natural rubber. It also offers corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses [2][3][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Categories Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise today, while cotton spot sales were generally poor but prices remained stable. Despite a large increase in new cotton production this year, commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, providing strong support for the market. Demand remained stable during the off - season. As of December 18, domestic cumulative processed lint cotton was 648600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 82000 tons. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventory was 5.349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16300 tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's new - year planting area. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished - product inventory was not high. Recently, Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong and volatile trend, and the industry could focus on hedging opportunities, with operations mainly based on buying on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Thailand, as of December 22, the 2025/26 sugar - making season had produced 815300 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 133600 tons, and the production progress was slow. In Brazil, after entering the rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas was low, which was not conducive to sugarcane growth, and the sugarcane yield per unit area might continue to decline next year. However, rainfall increased in December. In China, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded sharply. In November, Guangxi's production progress was slow, and sugar production decreased year - on - year. In November, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93400 tons. In the short term, the northern hemisphere had a strong expectation of increased production, and sugar prices at home and abroad were expected to remain low. However, there was a possibility of production reduction in major producing countries next year, and attention should be paid to later weather conditions [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them to the market, with little procurement of fruit farmers' goods. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 70900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.86%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high. Traders and fruit farmers had a strong sentiment of reluctance to sell, which might affect the destocking speed. Currently, demand entered the off - season, total market demand decreased, and the reluctance - to - sell sentiment also affected the sales speed, resulting in slow recent sales and increased bearish sentiment in the market. Operations should maintain a bearish stance [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally increased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price mostly declined. Globally, natural rubber supply would shift from the high - yield period to the low - yield period, with Yunnan's production area in China fully stopped, Hainan's production area gradually stopping, and Vietnam's production area to gradually stop later. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased significantly, with Maoming Petrochemical's plant still under maintenance and Dushanzi Petrochemical's plant operating at a low load, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. Last week, China's tire operating rate decreased slightly, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished - product inventory continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area announced by Longzhong increased to 515200 tons, with both bonded and general trade inventories in Qingdao increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber announced by Fuchuang decreased to 15000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory slightly increased to 36000 tons. Overall, demand weakened, natural rubber supply decreased, synthetic rubber supply increased, natural rubber inventory continued to rise, synthetic rubber inventory decreased, cost support strengthened, and market sentiment improved. The strategy was to expect a rebound [5] Pulp - Today, pulp showed a volatile trend. Although commodities were generally strong, pulp's short - term upward potential was limited due to weak downstream demand. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4670 yuan/ton. As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 1.993 million tons, a decrease of 43000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Although the inventory was higher year - on - year, it was at a relatively low level this year. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440000 tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, might face less warehouse - receipt pressure; the narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp also provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had both increased. Paper mills mainly purchased pulp based on rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices was relatively weak. The pulp market had intense trading. Operations should either wait and see or conduct short - term trading [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Overseas prices were lowered, and domestic spot prices remained weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 63200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.17%. Demand entered the off - season, but the average daily export volume remained above 60000 cubic meters, indicating acceptable off - season demand. As of December 19, the total national port log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120000 cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41%. The total national log inventory was low, with relatively little inventory pressure. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices, and operations should wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has greater adjustment pressure from domestic spot supply and demand, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and the price difference is favorable for exports. Hold the previous long positions with the support level raised to 94,000, and set a dynamic stop - profit between 97,000 and a certain level [1]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by the macro - environment. The long positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support, and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. For cast aluminum alloy, consider the opportunity to narrow the price difference when it expands to over a thousand yuan [2]. - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and it will remain weak before large - scale production. The decline of the spot price is more certain due to the large basis [2]. - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton, with the support of downstream consumption and the expectation of loose monetary policies [3]. - The nickel market is dominated by policy - induced sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize and adopt a short - term wait - and - see strategy [6]. - For tin, pay attention to the reduction of positions and emphasize the high - level risks. Consider allocating out - of - the - money long put options for spring contracts [7]. - The lithium carbonate futures price is in a strong oscillation, with strong fundamentals and the short side at a disadvantage [8]. - The industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with market expectations centered on the expected centralized production cuts in the north at the end of the month [9]. - The polysilicon market has a co - existence of strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term trading floor may oscillate and correct under the adjustment of trading rules [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - On Wednesday, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased to near the record level, and the price rose at the end of the session. The domestic spot price difference widened, and the refined - scrap price difference was average. The domestic spot supply and demand put pressure on the copper price, but raw material shortages may affect refined copper [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China remained stable. The aluminum market fundamentals had limited contradictions, and the social inventory fluctuated slightly. The market was mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the long positions could be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [2]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 200 yuan to 21,500 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and the exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly. The tax adjustment may increase the cost in some areas [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, with an oversupply situation. The industry inventory continued to rise. The cost of alumina had room to decline, and it would remain weak before large - scale production [2]. Zinc - The long positions in the intraday market continued to cover, and the open interest increased. The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly, and the external market rose along the 60 - day moving average. The zinc export window was closed, and the consumption in 2026 was not overly pessimistic [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The price movement was mainly due to the stop - loss of industrial short positions, and the irrational trend was expected to be short - lived. The nickel ore quota in 2026 was significantly reduced, and the mineral benchmark price formula would be modified [6]. - The inventory of refined nickel increased, the nickel - iron inventory decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin open interest decreased, and the price fluctuated greatly. The domestic spot tin price had a large discount to the delivery month. The short - term moving average still provided support. The supply was expected to turn around and resume in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price broke through the 120,000 - yuan integer mark, and the market trading was active. The market inventory decreased, and the mid - stream was enthusiastic. The futures price was in a strong oscillation, and the fundamentals were strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price continued to rise slightly. The market expectation focused on the expected production cuts in the north at the end of the month. Although the operating rate in Xinjiang decreased slightly, the actual production cuts had not occurred. The downstream demand showed some changes [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continued to decline slightly. The market was waiting for the storage plan to be announced, and the production quota in 2026 might be tightened. The actual price was stable, but new orders were limited. The trading rules were adjusted, and the short - term trading floor may oscillate and correct [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Methanol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic Soda: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures showed different trends on December 24, 2025, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and downstream demand [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures rose. Price concessions led to better low - price transactions, but supply in Shandong was loose. PDH enterprises may reduce price - cutting willingness due to rising costs [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose due to technical rebounds. The domestic polyethylene market price continued to decline, and polypropylene faced issues like insufficient new orders and restricted circulation due to year - end fund recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated and recovered, remaining in the bottom - range oscillation. There are expectations of supply - demand improvement, and a long position in the monthly spread is considered for the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures rose. Cost support was insufficient, and the supply - side pressure was difficult to reverse despite increased exports. Market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectations pushed up prices, but the upward momentum slowed. PTA's processing margin is expected to recover, and downstream polyester may reduce production [4] - Ethylene glycol had a large - scale position - reduction rebound. It is under long - term pressure but may see supply - demand improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it is driven by cost with over - capacity as a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's port inventory increased significantly. It may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward drivers in the long term. A long position in the 5 - 9 monthly spread is recommended [5] - Urea production enterprises reduced inventory, and the market was strong in the short term due to factors such as reduced production and stable demand [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure eased, but demand was weak, and it may operate at a low level [6] - Caustic soda showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash mainly showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was large, and it may face long - term supply - demand surplus. A strategy of shorting soda ash and longing glass in the 05 contract is recommended [7] - Glass showed a strong trend. Inventory pressure was large, demand was insufficient, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor. Platinum and palladium are also rated ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US Q3 GDP recorded 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, causing a temporary decline in gold and silver prices, which later recovered. Geopolitical risks in regions like the US - Venezuela and Israel - Iran have intensified, and the new all - time high of gold has strengthened the overall trend of precious metals [1] - Although the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued policies to increase margin requirements and limit positions for platinum and palladium, the actual delivery business will start on May 1, 2026, so long - position funds remain active. Long - position funds in the far - month contracts are crowded, and platinum and palladium hit the daily limit [1] - The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets has attracted wide attention. The price difference between domestic and foreign active contracts is expected to attract cross - market arbitrage funds when it exceeds 40 yuan/gram. The market is mainly driven by domestic funds, and the foreign platinum price has hit a new high. The upper price limit lacks a reference range, so focus on tracking capital movements. With the Christmas holiday approaching, foreign trading volume will decline, and attention should be paid to capital trends. Tonight, focus on the early - released US weekly initial jobless claims [1] Other Key Points from Related Information ADP Employment Report - In the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week [2] Statements from Trump and Fed Candidates - Trump said those who disagree with him will never become Fed chair [2] - Hassett, the next Fed candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Fed is far behind the curve on interest - rate cuts [2] Suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed should discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [3] Holiday Trading Suspensions - Due to the Christmas Eve holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 2:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the Brent crude oil futures contract trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end at 3:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the US Treasury bond futures contract trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end at 3:30 am Beijing time on the 25th [3]

| E 1 3/4 1 . | | | --- | --- | | - | | | 3 D | | | D | | | 1 | œ | | 1 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的闲 置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应收 紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 她缘政治风险仍在持续，进一步推高原油成本,并带动燃料油价格上行 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for rebar is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for hot-rolled coil is ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for iron ore is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. - The investment rating for coke is ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for coking coal is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for silicon manganese is ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend and the market is currently evolving [1]. - The investment rating for ferrosilicon is ★☆★, the white star implies that the short - term bullish or bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a slightly bullish short - term trend with caution due to factors like demand, supply, and macro - policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to trade sideways in the short term with a relatively loose fundamental situation [3]. - The coke market will likely trade sideways as the market anticipates stimulus policies despite a rich carbon supply and downstream demand characteristics [4]. - The coking coal market is likely to trade sideways as it faces fundamental pressure after discount repair but also has expectations for stimulus policies [6]. - For silicon manganese, it's recommended to try going long on dips considering the market situation [7]. - For ferrosilicon, it's recommended to try going long on dips given the demand and supply situation [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's supply and demand have both decreased, and de - stocking has accelerated slightly but pressure remains. Iron - water production has continued to fall, supply pressure is easing, and the slowdown of steel mill production cuts may slow. The downstream demand is weak, and exports are high. The short - term trading floor is expected to be slightly bullish [2]. Iron Ore - The global supply of iron ore is strong with high - end - of - year shipment expectations. Domestic arrivals are also strong, and port inventory has increased significantly. The demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production cuts are expected to slow. The short - term trading floor is expected to trade sideways [3]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [4]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. Production has slightly decreased, spot auction prices have slightly increased, and inventory has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [6]. Silicon Manganese - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. There are structural problems in port inventory. Iron - water production has decreased seasonally, and silicon manganese production and inventory have slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [7]. Ferrosilicon - There are expectations of coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production has rebounded, export demand has decreased, and metal magnesium production has increased. Supply has significantly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [8]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the resupply rhythm of copper concentrates is expected to be tight in the first quarter and looser later, with the supply - demand situation possibly shifting from "shortage" in 2025 to "tight balance". High copper prices during the off - season and the potential adjustment pressure on prices are offset by tight raw materials, reduced domestic refined copper supply and refinery exports. The key to copper trading is the rhythm, and after a short - term adjustment, copper prices may continue to rise around the peak season next year [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 Copper Concentrate Resupply Rhythm - In 2026, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to rebound to around 2%, with an increment of about 450,000 tons. The supply difference will vary quarterly, being tightest in the first quarter, and the market will focus on new projects in the second quarter, large - mine复产 in the third quarter, and new projects' production increase in the fourth quarter [1] "High Copper Price + Low Consumption" and Refinery Scheduling - The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 95,000 yuan, with a high position of 640,000 lots. During the off - season, the divergence between the rising copper price and domestic spot supply - demand signals has widened. The domestic copper social inventory has slowly increased to 168,400 tons, and the copper product start - up rate is expected to be lower than last year. However, the CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026, and the first - quarter domestic refined copper output growth rate is likely to slow. The supply of copper concentrates and scrap copper is tightening, and the export of unforged copper cathodes and cathode profiles has increased significantly [2][3] Key Trading Points in 2026 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market continued to implement the copper long - allocation strategy, accelerating the year - end rise of copper prices. Due to the tightest copper concentrate supply in the first quarter of 2026, copper prices have reached the $12,000 target. After reaching a high of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan, copper prices may adjust, but are likely to rise again around the peak season. The seasonal fluctuations of domestic social inventory around the Spring Festival will verify the supply - demand situation [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].