1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the price, price change, implied volatility (IV) data, and related quantile information of various ETFs and indexes over a 7 - day period from December 11 - 15, 2025, along with historical data on price, IV, skew index, and other aspects, aiming to help investors understand the market conditions and volatility characteristics of these financial products [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a - 0.38% drop on the 11th, a 0.45% increase on the 12th, and a - 0.03% drop on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 11.63% on the 11th to 11.04% on the 12th and then rose to 11.49% on the 15th [1]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 9.70%, 4.00%, 7.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 8.50%, 3.60%, 7.30% [1]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 98.60 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.72% on the 11th, increased by 0.56% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.58% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.86% on the 11th to 12.70% on the 12th and then rose to 13.17% on the 15th [3]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 28.50%, 9.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 31.20%, 11.00% [3]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 105.37 [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.73% on the 11th, increased by 0.55% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.52% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.86% on the 11th to 13.14% on the 12th and then rose to 13.66% on the 15th [6]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 20.40%, 12.20%, 16.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.50%, 14.10%, 21.40% [6]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 107.33 [11]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.32% on the 11th, increased by 0.30% on the 12th, and increased by 0.49% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 16.52% on the 11th to 15.67% on the 12th and then rose to 15.78% on the 15th [13]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 23.20%, 15.50%, 17.50%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 17.30%, 11.80%, 12.60% [13]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 110.66 [16]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.77% on the 11th, increased by 1.20% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.70% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 16.97% on the 11th to 15.48% on the 12th and then rose to 15.55% on the 15th [20]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.70%, 12.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 19.80%, 9.20%, 13.80%, 9.60% [20]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 105.56 [25]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.44% on the 11th, increased by 0.89% on the 12th, and decreased by 1.70% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 26.11% on the 11th to 23.78% on the 12th and then rose to 24.94% on the 15th [26]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 53.10%, 49.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 60.20%, 51.40%, 61.00% [26]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 112.91 [30]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.32% on the 11th, increased by 0.58% on the 12th, and decreased by 1.22% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 24.69% on the 11th to 18.19% on the 12th and then to 17.82% on the 15th [34]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 83.60%, 33.80%, 31.80%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 79.30%, 38.80%, 35.30% [34]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 108.31 [37]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.63% on the 11th, increased by 1.87% on the 12th, and decreased by 2.05% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 25.66% on the 11th to 24.11% on the 12th and then rose to 25.41% on the 15th [43]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 31.40%, 42.10%, 39.60%, 54.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 23.60%, 29.40%, 36.70%, 52.40% [43]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 99.79 [45]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.53% on the 11th, increased by 1.63% on the 12th, and decreased by 2.11% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 26.48% on the 11th to 23.94% on the 12th and then rose to 26.69% on the 15th [48]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 26.10%, 30.20%, 33.30%, 49.80%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 38.30%, 46.00%, 33.30%, 49.20% [48]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 100.71 [54]. 3.10 300 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.86% on the 11th, increased by 0.63% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.63% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.38% on the 11th to 11.78% on the 12th and then rose to 12.03% on the 15th [60]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.70%, 7.30%, 10.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 22.60%, 5.10% [60]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 107.95 [65]. 3.11 1000 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.30% on the 11th, increased by 0.81% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.84% on the 15th. The IV data was not available [66]. - **IV quantiles**: All IV quantile data was not available [66]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 125.24 [71]. 3.12 SSE 50 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.39% on the 11th, increased by 0.59% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.25% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 12.19% on the 11th to 10.54% on the 12th and then to 9.88% on the 15th [72]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 12.60%, 1.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 11.20%, 1.00%, 0.20% [72]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 112.40 [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to strengthen. After the Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying, the easing trade is expected to continue. Attention is paid to this week's US November non - farm and CPI data [1] - Short - term silver hit a new high, and gold is approaching the October high. If the resistance is broken, precious metals may remain strong. Platinum and palladium hit new highs, and long - term allocation is clear [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Fed's Policy and Officials' Views - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, announced to buy $40 billion short - term bonds in the next 30 days. There were internal differences, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years [1] - Powell said the risk of employment decline increased, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The meeting was overall neutral, and restarting bond - buying was earlier than expected [1] - After the meeting, several officials still expressed a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. Last week's employment data was mixed, with the number of job openings in October increasing to 7.67 million and the weekly initial jobless claims increasing by 44,000 to 236,000 [1] - Goolsbee: Wait for more data before cutting rates, and expect more rate cuts in 2026 than the median; Schmid: Inflation is still too high, and a moderately restrictive monetary policy should be maintained; Paulson: More concerned about employment risks, and the monetary policy is restrictive; Harker: Tend to adopt a slightly more restrictive policy stance [2] Market Performance of Precious Metals - Short - term silver continued to hit a new high, showing strong financial attributes and tight spot supply under the enhanced expectation of Fed's rate cut. Gold rose to near the October high [1] - Platinum and palladium prices hit new highs on Monday, with the outer market breaking through the previous high and accelerating. They follow the bull market of precious metals, are favored by long - term funds, and have macro premium and potential demand from the commercial space and hydrogen sectors [1] Other News - Trump prefers to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the next Fed chairman [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed to give up joining NATO during a five - hour talk in Berlin. The US envoy said the talks made "significant progress" but did not disclose details [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [2] Core Viewpoints - The core logic driving crude oil prices remains the pressure of oversupply, and geopolitical events have a limited impact on price increases [3]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand rhythm mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will be an upward pressure in the medium term; the low-sulfur fuel oil market will continue to be weak [4]. - The demand for asphalt is differentiated between the north and south, and the price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals and falling oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - US crude oil drilling and fracturing activities are at a low level at the end of the year. A tanker carrying about 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude was seized, but the geopolitical factors have limited impact on boosting oil prices due to the oversupply situation [3]. - Geopolitical developments related to Russia are making the crude oil supply-demand structure more relaxed, and the core of price fluctuations is the pressure of oversupply [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil High-sulfur Fuel Oil - On the supply side, the geopolitical impact continues. The shipments from the Middle East have decreased slightly in the past two weeks, with Saudi exports rising and Iranian and UAE exports falling, possibly due to sanctions and logistics disruptions. US seizure of an Iranian tanker is expected to continue affecting Middle East supply. Russian shipments have also significantly declined since early December [4]. - Singapore and Middle East inventories are rising, and floating storage due to logistics blockages has accumulated, resulting in sufficient supply. On the demand side, low crack spreads and improved coking profits boost feedstock demand, and the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak may support bunker demand. Short-term crack spreads may be supported by supply-demand mismatches, but high inventories will be a pressure in the medium term [4]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market remains in a loose pattern. Domestic production is expected to decline due to limited low-sulfur quotas in December, which may increase import demand. However, overseas supply pressure still exists, and future supply is expected to gradually increase, so it will continue to be weak [4]. Asphalt - Demand is differentiated between the north and south. In the north, winter storage is the main demand, but buyers are cautious due to high prices. In the south, supported by real demand, refineries have reduced production, and inventory has decreased. Recently, some major refineries in East and South China have offered significant shipping discounts, and the de-stocking of social and refinery inventories has slowed down. The price is under pressure due to falling oil prices and weak fundamentals [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond: ☆☆☆ [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending December 12th, the A - share market showed a structured and volatile trend. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 260 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The three major indexes showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.34%. There was relatively limited information on short - term incremental policies and economic data, and market structural characteristics emerged [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 6 points [1]. - In terms of term structure, the weighted annualized basis rates (dividend - adjusted) of the ending positions of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 0.33%, - 2.32%, - 4.16%, and - 9.95% respectively, and the discount of far - month contracts widened again [1]. - The net value of the quantitative CTA strategy for financial derivatives did not change last week. In the long - term, although the social financing data slightly exceeded expectations, the credit data such as M1 and M2 showed sub - seasonal declines and were lower than expected. The credit factor put pressure on stock index futures, with a relatively large decline in IC. In the short - term, the high - frequency real estate and consumption sectors were still weak. The RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar, and the capital situation remained relatively loose, but the short - term increase was relatively limited. In terms of positions, the risk appetite significantly recovered compared with the previous week. IF and IH remained relatively neutral, while IC and IM had relatively large declines. The overall comprehensive signal was in the neutral range. For bond futures, the capital situation remained loose. After a short - term rise, the positions of bond futures significantly declined. The stock - bond seesaw effect shrank, and the bond market was insensitive to fundamental feedback. The position factor of TF slightly declined, and institutional year - end allocation behavior was relatively cautious. The comprehensive signal was in a neutral and volatile state [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - For economic kinetic energy indicators, including blast furnace开工率, PTA开工率, etc., different indicators showed different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The scores for stock index futures and bond futures were both 8 points [2]. 3.2 Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The scores for stock index futures and bond futures were both 8 points [3]. 3.3 Liquidity Indicators - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The score for stock index futures was 9 points [4]. 3.4 Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as price - to - earnings ratio, price - to - sales ratio, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The score for stock index futures was 10 points [5]. 3.5 Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Stock - index - related market sentiment indicators such as margin trading balance, northbound capital inflow, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The score for bond futures was 9 points [6]. 3.6 Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - related market sentiment indicators such as the yield of 10 - year government - developed bonds, the VIX index, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with the bond index. The score for bond futures was 6 points [7]. 3.7 Strategy Introduction (Quantitative CTA Strategy) - The product pool includes stock index futures and bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - related high - frequency financial data. The long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic low - frequency indicators. The position data is synthesized considering institutional long and short positions [15]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by the signals of three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top 2 comprehensive signal strengths greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom 2 less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Signals are shielded 7 days before the delivery date. The stop - loss point is set at a daily decline of more than 1%, with equal - weighted allocation of capital. Consecutive two - day same - direction signals are shielded [16][17]. 3.8 Last Week's Situation - The data of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF main contracts from December 8th to 12th, 2025 were all 0 [18]. 3.9 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. The three - factor model is constructed using PCA, factor rotation, and logistic regression, with signals divided into three types: '1', '0', and '- 1'. The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading is carried out when there is resonance. In actual operation, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 [19]. 3.10 TF and T Main Contract Trading Signals - From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the N - S model and trend regression model signals of TF and T main contracts showed different situations [22].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report - Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 8th to December 12th, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and planned to buy $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days. Globally, stock markets were divided, bond markets oscillated, and commodities declined significantly. In China, stock markets were also divided, bond markets rose, and commodities declined. Overall, in terms of US - dollar valuation, bonds > stocks > commodities. The market will focus on the performance of recent macro - data and its short - term impact on the prices of major asset classes [2][5][20] Group 3: Summary of Global Major Asset Performance 3.1 Global Stock Market - From December 8th to December 12th, due to the implementation of the US dollar interest - rate cut and increased concerns about AI, major global stock markets showed mixed performance. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index stabilized at a low level weekly. US stocks performed poorly [7] - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.53% weekly, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34%. In the European market, the CI Europe rose 0.67%. In the American market, the MSCI US fell 0.68%. In other markets, the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.85% [10][11][12][13] 3.2 Global Bond Market - In the week of December 8th - 12th, although the December FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, there were significant differences among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment. The New York Fed planned to buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 4BP to 3.52%, and the 10 - year yield rose 5BP to 4.19%. The bond market oscillated strongly weekly, with high - yield bonds > Treasury bonds > credit bonds globally [14] 3.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.59% weekly. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar showed mixed performance, and the RMB exchange rate oscillated strongly [15] 3.4 Global Commodity Market - Supply surplus pressured oil prices, causing international oil prices to fall significantly weekly. The decline of the US dollar index led to rising precious - metal prices. Most agricultural and non - ferrous metal prices declined [17] Group 4: Summary of Domestic Major Asset Performance 4.1 Domestic Stock Market - With the implementation of important domestic policies and stable market sentiment, major A - share broad - based indexes showed differentiated trends. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style performed better. Sectors such as communication and military industry led the gains, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34% weekly [21] 4.2 Domestic Bond Market - From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 4.7 billion yuan. The bond market was strongly trending weekly, with Treasury bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds overall [22] 4.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the energy sector performed poorly [24] Group 5: Outlook for Major Asset Prices - With the implementation of recent important policies in China and the US, the market will focus on the performance of recent macro - data and its short - term impact on the prices of major asset classes [2][28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - On December 15, 2025, the platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit a record high since listing and recorded the first daily limit. Platinum, with industrial and financial attributes, follows the logic of a precious - metal super - bull cycle. [2] - Platinum and palladium are still favored by long - position funds in the context of strong gold and silver prices. With the synchronous easing of the Sino - US monetary cycles, they have more macro - premiums. In the long - and medium - term, the rhythm of multi - allocation for platinum and palladium is clear. [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Event - On December 15, 2025, the platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange reached a new high since listing and recorded the first daily limit. [2] Analysis of the First Daily - limit Logic - In the precious - metal super - bull cycle, funds shift from high - valued to low - valued varieties. Since November 2025, silver has led the precious - metal sector with a 29.3% increase. On December 15, 14.12 billion yuan of funds flowed out of Shanghai silver futures, while 6.84 billion yuan flowed into Guangzhou platinum futures, with an increase of 7055 lots. [2] - The supply of platinum is highly brittle, and the prospect of large - scale hydrogen energy applications boosts consumption expectations. Although the current platinum consumption in hydrogen energy accounts for less than 1% of the total, once the demand side breaks through, platinum's scarcity will increase. [2] - There is a re - balance between "money" and "resources". In the context of Western anti - globalization, countries scramble for key resources. China's dependence on platinum imports exceeds 80%, so platinum is a natural multi - allocation variety. [3] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum futures have prominent independent pricing ability. On December 15, 2025, the Guangzhou platinum futures hit the daily limit, while the NYMEX platinum main contract rose less than 2.5% and the London platinum spot price declined slightly, indicating that it is mainly driven by domestic funds. [3] Outlook for the Future - Platinum and palladium prices are at record highs and generally follow the precious - metal super - bull cycle. They are still favored by long - position funds due to their relatively low valuations. The synchronous easing of the Sino - US monetary cycles provides more macro - premiums. The development of commercial space and hydrogen energy sectors gives room for imagination in platinum and palladium consumption. With strong supply constraints, the long - and medium - term multi - allocation rhythm is clear. [3]

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| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月15日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为震荡偏强,现货价格坚挺,国产大豆新作供应端收紧,市场也存在惜售情绪,对大豆价格一直 是存在支撑的。政策端本周仍然在进行购销双向竞价交易,进口大豆方面也在进行拍卖。短期持续关注政策和 现货端的表现。 ...