1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, market sentiment improved, and risk - asset prices rose. In the global market, the U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was 4.3%, higher than the previous value and expectations, with the U.S. dollar index falling weekly, and stocks, bonds, and commodities rising. In the domestic market, the year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in November narrowed, and stocks and commodities rose weekly, while the bond market was strong. Overall, in terms of price performance, commodities > stocks > bonds both globally and domestically. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical factors as year - end geopolitical risks have increased, affecting short - term price fluctuations of major assets [3][6][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: U.S. Dollar Index Drops, Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Rise - **Global Stock Market**: The short - term risk appetite improved, and major global stock markets generally rose. The Asia - Pacific region had the highest increase, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to decline at a low level. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.20% in a week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, etc. [8][11] - **Global Bond Market**: Fed officials showed differences in their stances on the January 2026 monetary policy. Medium - and long - term U.S. bond yields generally declined, with the yield of the 10 - year U.S. bond falling 2BP to 4.14% weekly. The bond market rose weekly, and globally, government bonds > credit bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: Recent data showed the resilience of the U.S. economy, and there were differences in the policy expectations of major global central banks. The U.S. dollar index fell weekly by 0.69%, and major non - U.S. currencies generally appreciated against the U.S. dollar. The RMB exchange rate was strong [16]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The price - driving factors were not obvious, and international oil prices fluctuated strongly weekly. Affected by supply - demand factors and the weakening of the U.S. dollar index, international silver prices rose significantly. Most major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals prices rose [17]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Rise, Bond Market Runs Strongly - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market sentiment warmed up, and major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, non - ferrous metals and military industries led the increase, while the commercial retail and banking sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 1.552 billion yuan, and the capital market remained generally stable. The bond market was strong weekly, with government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [24]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose as a whole. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the increase [26]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to Geopolitical Factor Changes in the Short Term - At the end of the year, geopolitical risks have increased, which will have a certain impact on the short - term price fluctuations of major assets. Therefore, close attention should be paid to changes in major global geopolitical factors [27].

Report Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ★★★ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ★★★ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending December 26, index futures showed divergence. IH2601 rose 1.45%, IF2601 rose 2.79%, IC2601 rose 4.86%, and IM2601 rose 4.97%. Sectors such as satellite communications and new energy were strong. The market is currently being repaired by capital sentiment, and major broad-based indexes are approaching previous highs [1]. - From the high-frequency macro fundamental factor scores, for index futures, inflation indicator scored 8 points, liquidity indicator scored 9 points, valuation indicator scored 11 points, and market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For treasury bond futures, inflation indicator scored 8 points, liquidity indicator scored 9 points, and market sentiment indicator scored 5 points [1]. - The weighted annualized basis rate (dividend - adjusted) of the ending positions of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 1.05%, - 1.36%, - 3.5%, and - 6.52% respectively, and the discount of far - month contracts narrowed compared to last week [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose 0.92% last week, with the profit coming from opening a long position in IC on Thursday and closing it. In the long - term, industrial enterprise profits at the production end showed an over - seasonal decline, with relatively large declines in IF and IH, and relatively small changes in treasury bond futures. In the short - term, medium - and high - frequency real estate and consumption remained weak, the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar, the capital situation remained relatively loose, but the short - term increase was relatively limited [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Among economic kinetic energy indicators, the blast furnace开工率 decreased by 3.11%, the开工率 of PTA in China decreased by 3.11%, the refining plant开工率 in Shandong increased by 4.98%, etc. Both index futures and treasury bond futures scored 8 points [2]. Inflation Indicators - The vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.64%, the price of 1 electrolytic copper increased by 4.61%, etc. Both index futures and treasury bond futures scored 8 points [3]. Liquidity - DR007 increased by 5.72%, DR001 decreased by 1.18%, etc. Index futures scored 9 points [4]. Index Valuation - The price - earnings ratio (TTM) increased by 1.37%, the price - sales ratio (TTM) increased by 1.38%, etc. Index futures scored 10 points [5]. Market Sentiment: Index - The margin trading balance increased by 1.58%, the securities lending balance increased by 1.04%, etc. Index futures scored 9 points [6] Market Sentiment: Bonds - The 10 - year CDB bond yield increased by 0.74%, the US S&P 500 volatility index decreased by 8.79%, etc. Treasury bond futures scored 5 points [7] Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macroeconomic data. The position indicator is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [15]. Forecast Signals as of Last Friday - The comprehensive signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were 0.52, 0.51, 0.53, 0.51, 0.51, and 0.5 respectively [16]. Last Week's Situation - The trading signals of different contracts on different days last week are presented in the table, with some days having no signals and some days having signals for specific contracts [18] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel. The actual operation uses a 1:1.8 ratio to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [19] TF and T Main Contract Trading Signals - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the N - S model and trend regression model signals for TF and T main contracts were mostly 0, with a - 1 signal from the N - S model on December 25 [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the week ending December 26, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.73%, 0.07%, and 4.00% respectively. The equity strategy in the public - fund market rebounded, the commodity - type ETFs strengthened, and the silver ETF net value increased significantly [3]. - The growth and cyclical styles performed strongly last week, while the consumer style declined slightly. The style timing model currently signals a preference for the consumer style [3]. - The neutral strategy shows that the basis of stock index futures continued to rise last week, and the average premium rate index of 500 and 1000 ETFs decreased [3]. - Among Barra factors, the medium - long - term momentum factor's return strengthened this week, and the valuation factor's excess return declined [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Returns - Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index had weekly returns of 2.73%, 0.07%, and 4.00% respectively. Public - fund strategies: the enhanced index strategy rose 2.82%, and the silver ETF had a weekly return of 17.43% [3]. Style Performance - Growth and cyclical styles were strong last week, consumer style declined slightly. Financial and growth funds had better excess performance. The market's deviation from growth and consumer styles slightly recovered. The congestion index increased compared to last week, with cyclical style fund congestion at a historical low and growth style at a historical medium - high level [3]. Neutral Strategy - The basis of stock index futures (futures - spot) continued to rise last week. IC and IM contract basis rose above 3 times the standard deviation of the average in the past three months. The average premium rate index of 500 and 1000 ETFs decreased and is currently at a medium - low level in the past three months [3]. Barra Factors - Medium - long - term momentum factor's return strengthened, valuation factor's excess return declined. The leverage factor's strength increased marginally, and the dividend factor weakened. The factor cross - section rotation speed decreased slightly and is currently at a medium level in the past year [3]. Style Timing - According to the style timing model, the growth style weakened marginally this week, and the signal favors the consumer style. Last week, the style timing strategy's return was 4.41%, with an excess return of 2.61% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold, silver, and palladium are rated with one star (★☆☆), indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but with limited operability in the market [1]. Core Viewpoints - After the Christmas holiday, the international precious metals market continued its strong performance. The international gold price reached a new all - time high, and silver broke through $75 per ounce for the first time. The loose prospects of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks supported the performance of precious metals, leading to a resonance breakthrough in various varieties. Short - term market volatility has increased [1]. - Bullish funds continued to flow into platinum and palladium. The platinum contract hit the daily limit, and the price was revised upwards. The platinum market saw a capital inflow of over 3 billion yuan, with a total of over 9 billion yuan in settled funds. The palladium market had a capital inflow of 2 billion yuan, with over 4.2 billion yuan in settled funds. In 2026, the supply shortage of platinum and palladium is expected to continue, and the supply gap of palladium will significantly narrow. With the support of the prospects for large - scale application of hydrogen energy, funds are optimistic about the future price of platinum and palladium. The price difference between platinum and palladium exceeded 160 yuan per gram. Platinum and palladium are in a bull market cycle, and the market is still relatively small compared to gold and silver, so funds have strong control. The mid - term strategy is to continue with long - position allocation. The implied volatility of platinum and palladium options has been rising, and investors should pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options [2]. Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Market Performance - After the Christmas holiday, the international precious metals market continued to be strong, with gold reaching a new high and silver breaking through $75/ounce [1]. - Bullish funds flowed into platinum and palladium, with the platinum contract hitting the daily limit and price revisions [2]. Market Influencing Factors - The loose prospects of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks supported the performance of precious metals [1]. - The expected supply shortage in 2026 and the prospects for large - scale application of hydrogen energy boosted the confidence of funds in platinum and palladium [2]. Investment Strategies - Short - term investors should pay attention to position control due to increased market volatility [1]. - Mid - term investors should continue with long - position allocation for platinum and palladium, and pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options for platinum and palladium options [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating of soybeans (domestic), soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs is ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. The rating system is based on the star - level description where red stars represent a predicted trend of rising, and three stars mean a clearer long/short trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies, weather, and market sentiment. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies, and continuous attention should be paid to fundamental and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans (Domestic) - Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The auction this week shows good trading volume, strong trading prices, and premium transactions. Policy - side transactions support the price, which is stable and strong. Continuous attention to fundamentals and policies is needed [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were closed for the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. soybeans opened at 22:30 Beijing time today. The market is worried about import clearance speed, causing the price to rise. Attention should be paid to U.S. soybean exports and the impact of South American La Nina weather. Recently, soybean meal prices will follow U.S. soybeans to oscillate, waiting for South American weather changes [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean and palm oil are rising with a reduction in positions. The macro - sentiment of commodities is improving, and attention should be paid to price rebounds due to the macro - atmosphere. There are concerns about tightened soybean clearance policies. Palm oil's high - frequency data shows a mitigation of the bearish fundamental atmosphere. After recent declines and the release of negative factors, U.S. soybeans have stabilized and rebounded. The short - term risk of South American crop weather is low, which requires continuous attention [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices are rising as the market expects stricter import inspection and quarantine policies for oilseeds. The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing has only slightly increased compared to the same period last year, and poor exports still suppress its prices. Australian rapeseed imports have not been crushed yet. The continuous inventory decline of domestic rapeseed supports near - month futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of improved China - Canada relations and the opening of Australian rapeseed commercial purchases. Overall, economic and trade trends are the biggest variable for rapeseed. In a state of global rapeseed oversupply, the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. Corn - Today, the spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports are stable and strong. The weather affects farmers' reluctance to sell in the Northeast, and downstream enterprises have partially established safety stocks. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises this morning is 314, showing a decline. After the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated, there is no obvious increase in downstream purchases. Future attention should be on the Northeast grain - selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract will oscillate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig futures contract 03 rose sharply today and closed above the 60 - day moving average. The overall index showed a situation of increased trading volume. After two months of low - level consolidation, beware of the price entering a rebound channel. In the long - term, the industry is still in the process of increasing slaughter due to previous production capacity recovery, and pig prices are expected to remain low. The current price increase is regarded as a rebound [8]. Eggs - The egg futures prices strengthened again during trading. On the spot side, the price in Hebei was raised for the second consecutive day. The real - world fundamentals of the egg - laying hen industry are gradually improving, and the long - term egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline. The market has gradually accepted the change from a pessimistic to an optimistic expectation for eggs, which is likely to form a consensus. In the long - term, a long - position thinking should be adopted, while being vigilant against the risk of a rapid increase in futures prices due to pre - emptive trading by funds [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified with a clear rating description [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Styrene: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Propylene: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PVC: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PX: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - PTA: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - Glass: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose in some sectors, while demand varies by product. Some products are in a seasonal demand slump, and the market support from the supply - demand fundamentals is relatively weak. However, some products have positive factors such as inventory reduction and strong raw material expectations, which bring upward impetus [2][3][5] - For different chemical products, different investment strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, cost changes, and market trends, including short - term and medium - long - term strategies [3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. The overall supply was relatively loose, but the low - price transactions improved, and the production enterprises' willingness to stabilize the market was prominent [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply of polyethylene remained at a high level for a long time, and the downstream demand decreased. The polypropylene was in the seasonal demand off - season, and the demand release was limited in the short term [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The unified benzene futures price fluctuated at a low level during the day. The port inventory continued to rise, but there were expectations of device maintenance and downstream load increase in the future, and the supply was expected to increase. In the medium - term, considering the de - stocking expectation in the first half of next year, it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the monthly difference at a low price [3] - The styrene futures main contract continued to rise during the day, breaking through the upper limit of the previous consolidation range. Driven by the strength of aromatics and export negotiations, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price support of styrene became stronger [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation continued to drive the price up, and PTA increased its positions and followed the rise. In the short term, PX supply was expected to increase, and PTA was expected to maintain a low - load de - stocking state. The upward drive mainly came from raw material PX. In the medium - term, a long - position strategy was recommended [5] - The ethylene glycol price fluctuated mainly. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester had a load - reduction expectation, but the decrease in arrival volume and device maintenance alleviated the inventory - accumulation pressure. In the long - term, it was still under pressure due to large - scale device production [5] - The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuated with raw materials. In the demand off - season, the basis and processing margin weakened. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern was relatively good. The bottle - chip demand declined, and the spot processing margin was better than the futures, but the overall situation was still not ideal, with over - capacity being the long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures fluctuated within a range. The port inventory increased significantly due to the recovery of import unloading speed and weakening of inland demand. In the short term, the inventory was high, and the market might fluctuate weakly within the range. In the long - term, there was an upward driving force, and it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the 5 - 9 monthly difference at a low price [6] - The urea futures fluctuated strongly. The production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly, and the market sentiment promoted good transactions. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the daily output decreased, and the reserve demand continued to advance. The short - term supply - demand gap tightened, and the market fluctuated strongly [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The start - up rate decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and the supply pressure was expected to ease in 2026. The downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [7] - Caustic soda showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed, which supported the price of liquid caustic soda. The downstream replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory pressure was still high. The supply pressure was large, and the expected upward range was limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The weekly output decreased slightly but was still above 700,000 tons, and there was new production capacity release in the future. The inventory continued to decrease, and the demand was mainly for downstream replenishment. In the long - term, it faced the pressure of supply - demand surplus, and a high - selling strategy was recommended. A long - glass and short - soda ash 05 strategy could be considered at a low level [8] - Glass showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the spot market was average. The production capacity decreased slightly, and the profit was compressed. The processing orders were sluggish, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needed to reduce production capacity to achieve balance [8]

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月26日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ななな | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | 20号胶 ★★★ 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，商品整体偏强，棉花也加速上涨，基本面暂无新的变化,逻辑仍以前期为主。棉花现货主流销售甚差总体 持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但 需求总体持稳。截至12月18号，国内棉花累计加工皮棉648.6万吨，同比增加82.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加155.2万吨。国内 商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various commodity futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes and持仓量 and capital flow information [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 1,016.30 with a weekly increase of 3.71%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.43%, and a volatility change of 13.75%. Silver closed at 18,319.00 with a weekly increase of 19.14%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 43.50%, and a volatility change of 33.41% [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 98,720.00 with a 5.95% weekly increase; nickel at 126,750.00 with a 7.91% increase; aluminum at 22,405.00 with a 0.99% increase; tin at 338,550.00 with a 1.58% decrease; zinc at 23,170.00 with a 0.41% increase; lead at 17,555.00 with a 4.00% increase; industrial silicon at 8,880.00 with a 2.19% increase [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,720.00 with a 1.15% decrease; coking coal at 1,115.50 with a 0.68% increase; iron ore at 783.00 with a 0.38% increase; rebar at 3,118.00 with a 0.03% decrease; hot - rolled coil at 3,283.00 with a 0.43% increase; ferrosilicon at 5,672.00 with a 0.57% increase; silicomanganese at 5,840.00 with a 0.55% increase; stainless steel at 12,955.00 with a 1.85% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 441.80 with a 3.56% increase; fuel oil at 2,491.00 with a 4.23% increase; LU at 3,017.00 with a 3.53% increase; LPG at 4,080.00 with a 0.46% decrease; asphalt at 2,995.00 with a 2.96% increase; PVC at 4,832.00 with a 3.87% increase; polyethylene at 6,465.00 with a 2.29% increase; polypropylene at 6,292.00 with a 1.27% increase; styrene at 6,787.00 with a 6.01% increase; PTA at 5,280.00 with an 8.15% increase; ethylene glycol at 3,846.00 with a 2.89% increase; short - fiber at 6,666.00 with a 5.94% increase; methanol at 2,161.00 with a 0.61% increase; urea at 1,735.00 with a 2.24% increase; glass at 1,057.00 with a 1.54% increase; soda ash at 1,200.00 with a 2.04% increase; natural rubber at 15,780.00 with a 3.88% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton closed at 14,535.00 with a 3.71% increase; sugar at 5,285.00 with a 3.87% increase; corn at 2,222.00 with a 1.37% increase; apple at 9,247.00 with a 0.52% increase; starch at 2,514.00 with a 0.88% increase; soybean No. 1 at 4,128.00 with a 1.08% increase; soybean No. 2 at 3,491.00 with a 2.26% increase; soybean meal at 2,790.00 with a 2.01% increase; soybean oil at 7,836.00 with a 1.61% increase; palm oil at 8,568.00 with a 3.33% increase; rapeseed meal at 2,391.00 with a 2.93% increase; rapeseed oil at 9,046.00 with a 3.45% increase; pulp at 5,630.00 with a 2.25% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Egg closed at 2,957.00 with a 2.46% increase; live pig at 11,645.00 with a 2.83% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 7,388.00 with a 4.71% increase; IF at 4,638.40 with a 2.46% increase; IM at 7,472.40 with a 4.63% increase; IH at 3,051.40 with a 1.50% increase; T at 108.30 with a 0.14% increase; TS at 102.55 with a 0.06% increase; TF at 106.05 with a 0.08% increase [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had a year - to - date increase of 145.23%, gold 64.56%, and tin 38.26%. Some commodities had significant year - to - date decreases, such as PVC with a 20.95% decrease and LPG with a 25.11% decrease [13] 3.3 Position and Capital Flow - **Position Changes**: The positions of coke, PTA, lead, urea, and soybean No. 1 increased significantly [15][16] - **Capital Flow**: The capital attention of silver, gold, copper, nickel, and PTA increased [17]