| 11/11 | 国校期货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人好于预期的5万人，但失业率升至4.6%创2021年9月以来新高且 10月就业减少10.5万人，此外美国12月标普全球制造业PMI、服务业PMI以及10月零售销售均低于预期，数据 验证经济降温轨迹,市场维持2026年降息两次预期。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点,如果实现突破则责金属强 势表现有望延续。 ★美国12月标普全球服务业PMI 初值52.9，创6月份以来 ...

今日盘面震荡为主。 淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步下降，库存延续去化态势。热卷供需双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍有待 缓解。铁水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，关注 唐山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 材出口维持高位，许可证管理的实际影响有待观察、宏观情绪回暖， "反内卷"反复发酵，盘面逐步企稳，需求偏弱仍制约反 弹空间，关注宏观政策变化。 【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面上涨。 供应端，全球发运环比增加并强于去年同期水平，国内到港量反弹，港口库存保持累库趋势，供应过剩压 力渐增。需求端，淡季终端需求处于低位，钢厂盈利情况较差，铁水近期持续减产，未来存在进一步季节性走弱的空间。海外 降息落地，国内重要会议召开，宏观表达未超预期，市场情绪仍有反复。铁矿石基本面较为宽松，短期结构性扰动不改中长期 供应宽松趋势,我们预计盘面走势以震荡下行为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡上行。焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购 意愿一般。整体来看，碳元 ...

| /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯苯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil supply - demand is becoming looser. With the progress of peace talks and various news factors, the oil price fluctuates more violently [3]. - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the fuel oil market to weaken. The low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. The high - sulfur fuel oil has potential raw material fluctuations and medium - term market pressure [4]. - The price of the asphalt main contract rose about 3.6% due to the expected reduction of Venezuelan crude oil supply, which may lead to a tight supply of raw materials for asphalt production. It has a positive impact on asphalt and other heavy oil products [5]. 3. Summary by Category Crude oil - The API data shows that the US API crude oil inventory from December 12 decreased by 9.322 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, but it did not boost oil prices [3]. - Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and the positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation increase market concerns about oil supply and lead to intensified oil price fluctuations [3]. Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, and the decline in crude oil prices drives the fuel oil market down [4]. - In the low - sulfur fuel oil market, the remaining low - sulfur quota in December is limited, production may shrink, and import demand may increase. The end - of - year shipping fuel peak season and unstable overseas refinery operations may provide short - term support, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [4]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, US sanctions on Venezuela may affect the arrival of heavy high - sulfur raw materials, providing short - term support. However, rising inventories in Singapore and the Middle East and floating storage accumulation due to logistics blockages bring medium - term market pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose about 3.6%. Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers led to a drop in Venezuelan crude oil shipments to zero (excluding those to the US), and the expected reduction in raw material supply for domestic asphalt production boosted asphalt futures prices [5]. - The competition of local refineries for other heavy high - sulfur crude oils in the spot market may lead to tight global heavy crude oil supply, which is also beneficial to asphalt and other heavy oil products [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Soybean oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Palm oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but low operability [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency with poor operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading space [1] Core Views - The short - term policy is releasing supply to the market, while the new domestic soybean crop has a tightening supply and market hoarding sentiment [2] - The trading logic has changed, with concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a South American bumper harvest. Wait for South American weather changes and consider going long on the main 05 contract [3] - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil are falling, facing short - term downward pressure and high inventory pressure in the overseas palm oil market [4] - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a bearish trend dominated by supply, and attention should be paid to changes in trade policies [6] - The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North Ports has slightly declined, with the short - term Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillating at a high level [7] - The live pig futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is strong, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving [9] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Domestic soybean decline has slowed down, with a trading average price of 4030 yuan/ton and a rotation - in floor price of 4000 yuan/ton. Imported soybeans had an auction volume of 513,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3852.1 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.9% [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, and the US soybean futures price has fallen to a key position. Wait for South American weather changes to go long on the main 05 contract [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil have fallen below the lower edge of the range, and there is short - term downward pressure. The Malaysian palm oil market faces high inventory pressure [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has fallen significantly. The Australian rapeseed is about to be pressed, and the Canadian rapeseed price is low. The sector is in a supply - dominated bearish trend [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in the Northeast has slightly declined, and the procurement in North China has cooled down. The short - term Dalian corn 03 contract oscillates at a high level [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have added over 10,000 lots. The spot price is strong this weekend, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry is in a fundamental improvement stage [9]

白糖：11月下半月巴西中南部生产数据点评 数据点评 11月下半月巴西中南部的生产数据偏中性。本榨季的生产已经进入尾声，甘蔗压榨量和产糖量呈季节性下滑，后期压榨量 将逐渐减少。市场的关注点转向下榨季的产量预估，进入雨季后巴西中南部主产区的降雨偏少，不利于甘蔗的生长，明年巴西 的甘蔗单产可能继续下降。12月巴西中南部主产区降雨量有所增加，关注后续降雨情况和甘蔗长势。另外，由于糖醇比价大幅 回调,预计下榨季的制糖比也将下降,明年巴西的产糖量将有所减少。 具体来看，11月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为1599.3万吨，同比减少21.08%; 甘蔗ATR为133.78千克/屯燕，同比 增加6.8%;制糖比为35.52%,同比减少9.12个百分点；产乙醇11.85亿升，同比减少1.32%;产糖量为72.4万吨,同比减少 32.94%。 安如泰山 信守承诺 2025/26榨季截至11月底，巴西中南部地区累计入榨量为59226.6万吨，同比下降1.92%; 甘蔗AIR为138.33千克/屯燕、同比 下降2.5%; 累计制糖比为51.12%，同比增加2.78个百分点；累计产乙醇295.34亿升，同比下降5.43%; 累计产 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月17日 (原油) 夜盘油价大幅下探，布伦特原油跌破60美元/桶。API公布数据显示美国至12月12日当周API原油库 存大幅下降932.2万桶，远超市场预期，然而该数据并未对油价构成提振。美乌柏林谈判整体进展 非常积极，在多个关键议题上已形成初步共识,并正向达成和平协议迈进。全球原油供需愈发宽松 背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步增大供应压力,油价承压下 行。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人好于预期的5万人，但失业率升至4.6%创2021年9月以 来新高且10月就业减少10.5万人，此外美国12月标普全球制造业PMI、服务业PMI以及10月零售销售 均低于预期，数据验证经济降温轨迹，市场维持2026年降息两次预期。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高 点,如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价收阴震荡在MA10日均线，市场反复消化美国10月与11月非农就业相抵消后的增量，1 月降息预期概率小增至三成。市场继续等待通胀指标。国内现铜91700元，上海贴水125元，广东升 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities remained basically unchanged this week. The strength of the precious metals factor remained high, while that of the non-ferrous and agricultural product sectors decreased. The precious metals sector was relatively strong, and the agricultural product and chemical sectors were relatively weak [2]. - The differentiation within the agricultural product sector widened, with the cross - section differentiation of oil and meal products increasing, and the marginal decline in the positions of soybean oil and sugar [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Overall Situation - The cross - sectionally strong sector was precious metals, and the weak ones were agricultural products and chemicals. Gold's time - series momentum increased, and although the marginal position of silver decreased, it remained above the neutral range, with the cross - section differentiation at both ends widening [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the short - cycle momentum decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed, and zinc was relatively strong in the cross - section [2]. - In the black sector, the term structure showed narrowing differentiation, the positions of iron ore and rebar remained at low levels, and the short - cycle momentum increased slightly [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the short - cycle momentum factor rebounded, and soda ash was at the short end of the cross - section [2]. Factor Returns and Signals - **Methanol**: The demand factor weakened by 0.07%, the inventory factor increased by 0.12%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.05%. This week, the comprehensive signal was long. The supply side was neutral to long, the demand side was neutral, the inventory side turned long, and the spread side was neutral [3][4]. - **General Situation (First Table)**: The supply factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.56%; the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.07% and a monthly return of - 0.88%; the inventory factor had a weekly return of 0.12% and a monthly return of 1.45%; the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.00%; the cumulative return of major categories was 0.05% for the week and 0.50% for the month [3]. - **General Situation (Second Table)**: The supply factor had a weekly return of - 0.46% and a monthly return of - 0.36%; the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.49% and a monthly return of - 0.49%; the inventory factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of - 0.21%; the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of - 0.26%; the profit factor had a weekly return of 1.07% and a monthly return of 1.82%; the cumulative return of major categories was - 0.32% for the week and - 0.36% for the month [7]. - **General Situation (Third Table)**: The supply factor decreased by 0.08% last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.67%, and the comprehensive factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from short to neutral [10][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The comprehensive signal changed from short to neutral. The supply side's long feedback further weakened, the demand side's long feedback strengthened, the inventory side's short signal strength increased, and the spread side's short feedback strengthened [13]. - **Aluminum**: The demand factor strengthened by 0.38 last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.13%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.45%, the synthetic factor increased by 0.18%, and this week, the comprehensive signal remained short [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor decreased by 0.46% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.49%, the profit factor strengthened by 1.07%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week, the comprehensive signal was short. The supply side was neutral, the inventory side's long strength increased, the spread side was short, and the profit side continued to be short [15]. Sector Momentum and Other Indicators | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Product | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (suggesting a complex short - term trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing different trends. Some products face supply pressure, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors. Overall, the market is volatile, and different products require different investment strategies based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Polypropylene's profit inversion led to more plant shutdowns, increasing the expected external supply of propylene from some integrated enterprises. Downstream demand decreased, and the market transaction center moved down slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. For polyethylene, the supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was also weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures fluctuated. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the port inventory was stable. The supply - demand pressure might be relieved, and it was expected to fluctuate at a low level. A mid - line long - spread arbitrage could be considered on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The cost side had no obvious positive drive, and although supply and demand were expected to increase, the inventory build - up expectation made it difficult to boost prices [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA declined slightly due to the falling oil price. Their weekly loads were stable, while polyester's load decreased slightly. PX was expected to be strong in the mid - line, and PTA's processing margin was expected to recover [4] - The price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level due to supply contraction expectations. However, it was still under pressure in the new year due to expected inventory build - up and new plant commissions [4] - Short - fiber's load and inventory decreased simultaneously, and its long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and its cost was the main driving factor [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's 05 contract fluctuated strongly. The port was de - stocking, but it was expected to build inventory significantly if the unloading speed recovered. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly [5] - Urea futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply was at a high level, and the industry's supply - demand was loose, with prices maintaining a range - bound oscillation [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices rose. Supply remained high, and although exports improved, domestic demand was weak. It was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [6] - Caustic soda prices had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to follow macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to energy - consumption regulations [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [7] - Glass was operating weakly. The industry was de - stocking, but it was difficult to maintain this trend. The long - term cold - repairing might continue due to profit compression [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming looser. Sanctions and potential agreements may increase supply pressure, causing oil prices to drop to a new low for the year [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will limit upside in the medium term. For low-sulfur fuel oil, it is expected to remain weak in the medium term despite some short-term supports [2]. - The asphalt market continues to be under pressure due to weak oil prices and fundamentals, with demand showing a north-south divide [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EU announced new sanctions against Russia on the 15th. US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a sharp decline in its oil exports. Market concerns about increased Russian oil supply after a potential agreement are pressuring oil prices [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitical factors affect supply, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand from refineries and shipping may provide some support [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production is expected to shrink in December, potentially increasing import demand. Seasonal consumption and unstable overseas refineries may support crack spreads in the short term, but it will remain weak in the medium term [2]. Asphalt - The spot price of asphalt dropped significantly last night, and the futures market followed suit. Demand shows a north-south divide, and the market continues to be under pressure [3].