Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: No clear indication - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No clear indication - Asphalt: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: No clear indication Core Views - The sanctions on Russia's crude oil exports are unlikely to have a continuous inhibitory effect, and there is still room for the downside risk of oil prices to be released this year [1] - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by the crude oil market, and the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to further expand [2] - The asphalt market is in the off - season, with weak demand and falling prices [3] - The fundamentals of LPG have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG futures price [3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and were relatively strong in the Asian session. China's crude oil imports in October increased by 2.3% month - on - month and 8.2% year - on - year [1] - There are rumors of the 20th round of EU sanctions on Russia, but the sanctions are unlikely to continuously suppress Russia's crude oil export volume [1] - The fastest inventory accumulation period for global oil in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year has not yet arrived, and the bullish support of short - term geopolitical factors for oil prices is increasingly limited [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been fluctuating, and its price is mainly affected by the crude oil market. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [2] - The crack spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened recently due to factors such as the unexpected shutdown of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery and the adjustment of the shipping rhythm of Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply in Asia is still abundant, and the continuous upward momentum is expected to be limited [2] - Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the supply pattern is expected to become looser in the medium term due to the recovery of damaged refineries in Russia and other reasons [2] Asphalt - In the off - season, the demand in the north is weak, and the increase in demand for modified asphalt in the southwest and south China cannot make up for the decline. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased week - on - week [3] - Social inventories have been increasing year - on - year since the end of October. Refineries have been reducing prices, and market sentiment is bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures contract has continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [3] - The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [3]

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月07日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本周美国部分经济数据继续缺失，已公布数据表现稳健，美联储官员讲话继续保持谨慎，但史上最长的政府 停摆令经济和美联储政策前景存在不确定性。市场等待新的驱动出现，贵金属构筑高位震荡平台，暂时保持 观望。美国地质勤探局(USGS)公布最新关键矿产清单,新增铜、银等矿产，关键矿产清单决定了哪些商品 将被纳入特朗普政府4月宣布的加工关键矿产及其衍生产品相关232条款调查，未来需关注相关关税政策和贸 易限制措施。 ★美国私人数据提供商Revelio Labs: 美国10月份非农就业岗位减少了9100个;美国10月挑战者企业裁员人 数同比大增175%，年内裁员人数同比增长65%；芝 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a weekly overview of futures price and volume data, including the closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of various futures products across different commodity categories such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It also shows year - to - date price changes, weekly average open interest changes, and weekly capital flow changes for these futures [3][4][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold closed at 921.26 with a 0.38% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 34.35%, and a volatility change of - 4.61%. Capital increased by 3.93 [3]. - Silver and copper closed at 11,484.00 and 85,940.00 respectively, with weekly decreases of 1.23%. Their 20 - day annualized volatility was 17.85%, and volatility decreased by 21.98%. Capital decreased by 9.30 [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Nickel closed at 119,440.00, down 0.95% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 8.71%, and volatility decreased by 44.14%. Capital increased by 9.75 [3]. - Aluminum closed at 21,625.00, up 1.41% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 9.29%, and volatility decreased by 4.55%. Capital increased by 28.58 [3]. - Tin closed at 283,510.00, down 0.14% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 11.93%, and volatility decreased by 39.20%. Capital decreased by 1.45 [3]. Black Metals - Iron ore closed at 760.50, down 4.94% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 19.20%, and volatility increased by 5.95%. Capital increased by 1.60 [3]. - Coke closed at 1,756.50, down 1.15% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 27.44%, and volatility decreased by 13.29%. Capital decreased by 1.43 [3]. - Coking coal closed at 1,270.00, down 1.24% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 35.11%, and volatility decreased by 12.86%. Capital decreased by 2.78 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 460.60, up 0.41% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 21.32%, and volatility decreased by 7.79%. Capital increased by 2.00 [3]. - Fuel oil closed at 2,695.00, with a complex performance including a - 1.82% and 0.18% change. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 21.46%, and volatility decreased by 3.41% and 3.11%. Capital had different changes of 1.94 and - 0.69 [3]. - PTA closed at 4,664.00, up 1.70% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 15.80%, and volatility increased by 1.30%. Capital increased by 5.09 [3]. Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 13,580.00, down 0.11% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 5.54%, and volatility decreased by 26.73%. Capital increased by 6.05 [3]. - Sugar closed at 5,457.00, down 0.47% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 7.29%, and volatility decreased by 0.95%. Capital increased by 2.04 [3]. - Corn closed at 2,149.00, up 0.89% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 10.65%, and volatility decreased by 2.43%. Capital increased by 3.73 [3]. Financial Futures - IC closed at 7,230.20, down 0.17% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 24.87%, and volatility decreased by 5.65%. Capital decreased by 50.68 [4]. - IF closed at 4,659.40, up 0.60% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 17.35%, and volatility decreased by 12.22%. Capital decreased by 40.88 [4]. - IM closed at 7,412.00, up 0.59% weekly. Its 20 - day annualized volatility was 19.84%, and volatility decreased by 7.29%. Capital decreased by 15.67 [4]. 4. Other Key Information - Year - to - date price changes vary widely across different futures products, with silver having the highest increase of 53.73% and some products having significant decreases such as - 18.97% for a certain product [12]. - 20 - day rubber, aluminum, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and industrial silicon had relatively large increases in open interest [14][16]. - Aluminum, nickel, rapeseed meal, zinc, and palm oil attracted more capital attention [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Report's Core View - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 86,015 with a rise of 20, and SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 15 with a rise of 15 [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21,540 with a rise of 180, and SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is - 30 with no change; Alumina (Shanxi) price is 2,840 with no change, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 320 dollars with a rise of 3 dollars [1]. - **Lead**: SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17,250 with a rise of 25, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 170 with a fall of 45; Recycled refined lead average price is 17,200, recycled lead average price rises by 25, and the refined - scrap price difference is 50 with no change [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,640 with a rise of 140, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 5 with a rise of 10 [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin average price is 283,700 with a rise of 900, and SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 700 with a fall of 70; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 271,700 with a rise of 900, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.77% [1]. - **Nickel**: 1 imported nickel average price is 119,825 with a rise of 350, and 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 400 with no change; SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119,500 with a rise of 350, and SMM electrowon nickel premium/discount average price is 75 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122,425 with a rise of 500, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 3000 with a rise of 150 [1]. - **Silicon - related**: Oxygen - permeable 421 (Xinjiang) average price is 9,100 with a rise of 0.55, and its premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 820 with a fall of 150; N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 52.2 with no change, and N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 51 with no change [1]. - **Lithium - related**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,400 with no change, and its premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 1460 with a fall of 2920; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,200, the battery - industrial lithium carbonate price difference is 2200 with no change [1]. Analysts - Lang Duo, Chief Analyst, research direction: copper, tin,从业资格证号: F3047773, investment consulting number: Z0014087 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, research direction: aluminum, alumina, gold,从业资格证号: F3062795, investment consulting number: Z0015311 [1]. - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, research direction: nickel and stainless steel, silver, lithium carbonate,从业资格证号: F3085524, investment consulting number: Z0016394 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, research direction: lead, zinc,从业资格证号: F03111330, investment consulting number: Z0018905 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, research direction: industrial (the description seems incomplete),从业资格证号: F03099436, investment consulting number: Z0021022 [1].

★美联储理事术兰：继续降息仍然是合理的;（评ADP）政府停摆前的就业市场趋势似乎依然存在。 ★克宫：普京与特朗普近期无对话计划。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | Millio | > 國授期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月06日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布10月ADP就业人数增加4.2万人高于预期为7月以来最大增幅，10月ISM非制造业PMI 升至52.4为2 月以来最高水平，美国经济表现稳健但史上最长的政府停摆令经济和美联储政策前景存在不确定性。市场等 待新的驱动出现，贵金属构筑高位震荡平台，暂时保持观望。 ★美最高法院关税案辩论开幕，保守派首席大法官等人对关税合理性发出质疑，特朗普胜诉概率降低。贝森 特对胜诉持乐观态度。 ★民主党轻松击败共和党候 ...

Group 1: Metal Price Changes - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 85,995, with a rise of 660, and the SMM flat - water copper premium is 0, up 5 [1] - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21,360, up 60, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 30, down 10 [1] - The average price of alumina (Shanxi) is 2,840, unchanged, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 317, down 1 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 17,225, down 100, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, unchanged [1] - The average price of recycled refined aluminum is 17,175, down 100, the refined - scrap price difference is 50, unchanged [1] - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,500, unchanged, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 tin is 282,800, up 1,500, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 770, up 250 [1] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 270,800, up 1,500, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.76% [1] - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 119,475, down 475, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged [1] - The average price of SMM electrodeposited nickel is 119,150, down 500, and the average premium of SMM electrodeposited nickel is 75, down 25 [1] - The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,925, down 425, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2,850, up 50 [1] - The average price of oxygen - permeable 421 (Xinjiang) is 9,050, unchanged, and the premium of oxygen - permeable 421 (Xinjiang) to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 970, down 520 [1] - The average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock is 52.2, unchanged, and the average price of N - type polysilicon dense material is 51, unchanged [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,400, down 100, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,460, down 1,860 [1] - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,200, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200, unchanged [1] Group 2: Analysts Information - Lang Duo is the chief analyst, researching copper and tin, with a qualification number of F3047773 and an investment consulting number of Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo is a senior analyst, researching aluminum, alumina, and gold, with a qualification number of F3062795 and an investment consulting number of Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang is a senior analyst, researching nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with a qualification number of F3085524 and an investment consulting number of Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang is a mid - level analyst, researching aluminum and zinc, with a qualification number of F03111330 and an investment consulting number of Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui is a mid - level analyst, researching industrial silicon, with a qualification number of F03099436 and an investment consulting number of Z0021022 [1] Group 3: Data Information - The data sources are SMM, iFind, and Guotou Futures. The data is updated daily between 11:00 - 13:00 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current situation and future trends [2][3][4] - Overall, the market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices oscillated. Saudi Aramco cut the official price premium of crude oil sold to Asia in December, and the downward pressure on oil prices in the fourth quarter is gradually materializing. Geopolitical factors have a limited impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of price decline this year [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil followed crude oil in a weak downward trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continued to widen. The short - term cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened, but the continuous upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the price spread between the two is expected to expand further [22] - **Asphalt**: Northern construction is gradually coming to an end, while the south still has demand for rush - repair work. The fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market's bearish sentiment is deepening, with prices continuing to decline [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The improvement in chemical profit has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion demand. However, with the weakening upward trend of international oil prices and the lack of strong support factors, the LPG main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Some US economic data are still missing, and the government shutdown has brought uncertainty to the economy and Fed policy. The precious metals market is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices were blocked at the MA20 moving average. The domestic copper market trading rhythm resonates with the stock market. There are differences in domestic social inventory statistics. It is advisable to wait and see, expecting the previous upward momentum to cool down [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum prices declined. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased while that of aluminum rods increased. The market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance from fundamentals. It is in a short - term volatile and slightly upward trend, but it is not advisable to chase the rise [5] - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the de - stocking pace has slowed. The external market has limited upward momentum, but the spot resources overseas are still tight. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to decline. The cost support for Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter has further strengthened, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [8] - **Lead**: LME lead inventory continued to decline, supporting the price above $2000. The domestic lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost still supports Shanghai lead. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was dull. Downstream demand is weak. The price support from the upstream is weakening, and Shanghai nickel is expected to run weakly with a downward - shifting center of gravity [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices oscillated. The tin market is in a game between short - to - medium - term supply shortages and long - term stable upstream supply growth. It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The spot price decline has slowed down, but the discount transaction continues. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the price will run weakly with limited rebound space [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. It will continue to follow the aluminum price and is difficult to have an independent market [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices stabilized and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The supply and demand were both strong, and the total inventory decreased. The futures price strengthened, and it is expected to show a short - term strong and volatile trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded significantly, and the market sentiment improved. The supply side has obvious contraction characteristics due to production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season. The industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term disk will continue to oscillate [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rebounded due to continuous price corrections and increased production - cut expectations. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern, and the actual production - cut intensity needs to be tracked [14] - **Plastics and Related Products** - **PP, PE, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is generally abundant, and the downstream demand support is weak. The cost support for polyethylene has declined, and the downstream demand is average. The overall market performance is average [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC continues to accumulate inventory and runs at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is declining. Caustic soda oscillated slightly stronger, but the downstream demand is general, and it runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: PX supply has recovered, while the overall load of PTA has decreased. The market is boosted by the news that PTA may increase production cuts. In the medium term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the raw material price increase transmission may be blocked [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply is expected to grow, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but the raw material price increase may squeeze profits. The demand for bottle chips has weakened, and the processing margin is under pressure [33] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices oscillated. The apparent demand and production of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the demand expectation is still pessimistic. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the short - term price may still fluctuate [15] - **Iron Ore**: Overnight iron ore futures prices oscillated weakly. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices oscillated upward during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase for coke. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both prices oscillated strongly. The demand from molten iron production remains high. The price of manganese silicon is likely to oscillate upward, and ferrosilicon demand is generally good, with a similar price trend [19][20] - **Glass**: Glass prices oscillated. Some production lines in Shahe stopped production, and the inventory decreased. The cost has increased, and the profit has narrowed. The short - term downward space is limited [34] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Night - session US soybean prices led to a decline in domestic prices. The import cost of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected that domestic soybean inventory will decrease in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Overnight US soybean prices dropped sharply. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased. Attention should be paid to whether palm oil can stabilize at this stage [38] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply - side positive factors for rapeseed meal still prevail, and the strategy of going long on rapeseed meal is maintained. The view on rapeseed oil has changed from bearish to wait - and - see, focusing on the marginal changes in imports [39] - **Corn**: Night - session Dalian corn futures continued to run strongly. The supply of new corn in the Northeast has increased at a slower pace, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The import tax rate of US corn has changed, and attention should be paid to the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is weakly stable, and the futures price is consolidating at a low level after a rebound. The later supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [42] - **Eggs**: The near - month futures contract of eggs hit a new high, and the far - month contract is mainly consolidating. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. It is advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices declined. Brazilian cotton exports increased year - on - year. The new cotton cost provides some support, but the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see for now [44] - **Sugar**: Overnight US sugar prices oscillated. The international sugar supply is relatively abundant, and the domestic market is focusing on the new - season production estimate [45] - **Apples**: Apple futures prices oscillated widely. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, but the quality is poor, and the selling sentiment is strong. A bearish strategy is recommended [46] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: The futures price is running weakly. The low inventory provides strong support, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [47] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the demand is average. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose with heavy volume yesterday, and futures contracts all rose. The short - term market will mainly oscillate and consolidate. It is advisable to focus on technology - growth stocks and appropriately allocate cyclical and consumer sectors [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs may have an impact on the US budget deficit. The domestic bond market is in a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk announced a price increase for December freight rates, setting a reference benchmark. The 12 - contract valuation upper limit is emerging, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is still weak, with the expected demand remaining weak. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the futures prices may fluctuate in the short - term. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke has a third - round price increase expectation, and coking coal prices are not expected to fall continuously. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's futures prices rebounded slightly. Thread demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. Hot - roll demand dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory rose slightly. Iron - water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is weak, but the market sentiment has improved. The futures prices may still fluctuate in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The global shipment is at a high level for the same period, and there is room for seasonal improvement. The domestic arrival volume has increased significantly, and port inventories are accumulating. Terminal demand has entered the off - season, steel demand has dropped, and steel mills' profitability has shrunk. There is further pressure on iron - water production cuts. After the macro - level positive news was implemented, the market tends to cash in on the benefits and start to trade the fact of a marginally looser iron ore market. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated upwards during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase in the coking industry. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Coke inventories have hardly changed. Downstream enterprises are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing intentions are average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and high - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a premium [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated upwards during the day. The market sentiment was affected by the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area, but many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so prices are not expected to fall continuously. The production of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions have improved, and terminal inventories have increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and producer - side inventories have decreased slightly. High - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a discount to Mongolian coal [6] Silicomanganese - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236. Weekly production of silicomanganese has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and inventories are slowly accumulating. The forward quotation of manganese ore is flat month - on - month. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236, and export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons. The secondary demand has increased marginally, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [8]

Group 1 - Analyst: Li Xiaochen, a senior analyst in ferrous metals with the qualification number Z0016022 [1] Group 2 - Data presented includes price data from 2023 - 2025 with values ranging from 7000 to 9500, and weekly production data of rebar and silicomanganese from 20 - 1 - 3 to 25 - 9 - 3 [4][5]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: One star, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The overall energy market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. The mid - term supply - demand situation, geopolitical factors, and seasonal factors all have an impact on the price trends of various energy products [2][3][4] Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, showing a volatile and weak trend this week. After the API crude oil inventory increased more than expected, last week's EIA crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels more than expected. The mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus on oil prices persists. Although the attack on Russia's largest Black Sea port Tuapse and surrounding refineries affected short - term shipments and production, the refinery operating rate in the last week of October has recovered to the highest level since August. Geopolitical factors have a volatile impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of oil price decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil has been dominated by the trend of crude oil, showing a volatile pattern. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a certain strengthening trend compared with high - sulfur fuel oil. The unexpected shutdown of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery, the adjustment of the shipping rhythm after the restart of Dangote refinery, and the possible transfer of some low - sulfur export quotas in China to the refined oil sector have jointly promoted the short - term strengthening of its cracking spread. However, the overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is still sufficient, with a new batch of 540,000 barrels of low - sulfur oil from Malaysia's PrefChem planned to be loaded in late November. There are still many remaining quotas in China, so the continuous upward momentum is expected to be limited. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical conflicts, but the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian supply has been basically digested. At the same time, the previously damaged refineries are gradually recovering, combined with the off - season of power generation demand and the increasing production trend of OPEC +, the mid - term supply pattern tends to be loose. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to expand [3] Asphalt - Construction in the north is gradually weakening, with construction in the northeast and northwest gradually stopping due to low temperatures, while there is still a demand for rush construction in the south. There are multiple bearish signals in the fundamentals. Since late October, the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative for the first time, and it is likely to continue this negative trend. The decline of the overall weekly commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory at the end of October has increased year - on - year for the first time this year. The market's bearish sentiment has deepened, and the price of asphalt (BU) continues to decline [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today's main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the weekly commercial volume of liquefied petroleum gas decreased. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the growth of demand, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand on the combustion end. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased. The international oil price shows a weak upward trend, and the lack of strong supporting factors in the fundamentals combined with the negative guidance from the cost side means that the main LPG contract is expected to fluctuate [5]