| Million >国技期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号，全国累积加工皮棉390. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - One-star ratings (indicating a bullish or bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market): Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, eggs [1] - White-star ratings (indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach): Corn [1] - Three-star ratings (indicating a clearer bullish or bearish trend with relatively appropriate current investment opportunities): Not specified in the text - Other ratings (not clearly defined in the text): Soybean, palm oil, soybean oil, live pigs [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and trade policies. Different agricultural products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean futures prices are strong. High-protein soybean supply is tight due to adverse weather, and the price difference with imported soybeans is widening. The number of domestic soybean warehouse receipts is increasing. Imported soybean prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with attention on US soybean exports and South American soybean planting [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA November supply and demand report shows a decline in US new soybean production and other indicators, but the market has fully priced in the bullish expectations before the report. South American soybean planting progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Nina. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits. The strategy is to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The USDA report's bullish factors are exhausted, and the price is in a sideways shock. The domestic soybean oil is strong, and the oil-to-meal ratio and the soybean-palm oil price difference are increasing. Palm oil supply and demand pressure continues, and the price trend needs clear supply and demand guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed series has declined recently due to the impact of the US soybean slump after the US agricultural report. The global rapeseed production has increased, and the export volume of some countries has also increased. The rapeseed series has a statistical premium, and the demand is weak. The futures price is under short-term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures are weakly volatile. The increase in new corn in the Northeast has decreased, and the price is slightly stronger. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, and the domestic market needs to pay attention to the impact of the import auction and the signing of the trade agreement. The futures price is expected to wait for a pullback [7] Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are weak. The short-term price is under pressure, and the long-term price may form a double bottom [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable and weak, and the futures price of the near-month contract is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near-month contract [9]

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Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity market fluctuated upward last week, with an overall increase of 0.87%. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, while black and energy - chemical sectors declined by 0.4% and 0.65% respectively [2][6]. - With the marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, the commodity market may face short - term pressure. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to market risk appetite, but Fed officials' hawkish statements have cooled the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. Summary by Category Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.87% last week. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products at 0.77% and 0.67% respectively. Black and energy - chemical sectors fell by 0.4% and 0.65% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, apples, and rapeseed oil were the top gainers, with increases of 7.55%, 5.86%, and 4.09% respectively. Coking coal, eggs, and glass were the top losers, dropping 6.14%, 5.78%, and 5.41% [6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, with significant decreases in precious metals, chemicals, and soft commodities [2][6]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased, mainly driven by precious metals. Only the black sector had net capital outflows [2][6]. Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals**: The market initially expected economic data during the US government shutdown to confirm economic weakness and increase the probability of a rate cut, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks suppressed rate - cut expectations. The sector may oscillate at high levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Domestic fixed - asset investment and social financing were below expectations, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed cooled. With a slight inventory build - up and a tight long - term supply - demand outlook, the sector may face short - term pressure [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to fall. Iron ore production rebounded last week but still has room to cut. Steel mills' profit margins are average, and they are eager to lower raw material prices. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: OPEC's November report raised non - OPEC+ supply growth and maintained demand growth, shifting the balance from a shortage to equilibrium. The IEA also increased its surplus forecast, and EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 641.3 million barrels. Although geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may support oil prices, the market may face short - term pressure [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester products, the strong overseas gasoline crack spread and tight US aromatic supply boosted the Asian aromatic market, but chemical demand is expected to weaken. For construction products, the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PVC had limited impact. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's November report showed a decrease in the US new - crop soybean's yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, since the market had already priced in the positive news, soybean prices fell after the report. Soybean meal may follow the decline, and the edible oil and oilseed sector may oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with an average increase of around 3.26% - 3.45%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 2,231.72 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase [34]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a - 0.58% return, the soybean meal ETF had a 0.99% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had an 8.94% return [34]. - **Overall Commodity ETFs**: The total scale of commodity ETFs was 2,343.35 billion yuan, with a 2.52% increase. Trading volume also increased significantly by 93.95% [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 10th to November 14th, the US federal government shutdown ended, and some key data is expected to be released. Globally, stocks and commodities rose while the bond market declined, with commodities > stocks > bonds in USD terms. In China, the stock market declined while the bond and commodity markets were relatively strong, with commodities > bonds > stocks. After the end of the US government shutdown, market liquidity is expected to gradually return to normal, and attention should be paid to the overall changes in market liquidity [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Major Asset Performance Global Stock Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, multiple Fed officials took a hawkish stance, reducing the expectation of a December USD interest rate cut. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. European stocks led the gains, while US stocks performed poorly. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose for the week [8]. - The MSCI US index dropped 0.02% for the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, the MSCI Europe index rose 2.13%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific region index rose 0.29% [11][12][13]. Global Bond Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, multiple Fed officials expressed caution about a December USD interest rate cut. Medium and long-term US bond yields increased. The 10-year US bond yield rose 3BP to 4.14% for the week, and the bond market declined. Globally, high-yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [15]. Global Foreign Exchange Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, the uncertainty of a December USD interest rate cut increased, and the US dollar index declined for the week. Most major non-US currencies rose against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate closed higher. The US dollar index dropped 0.26% for the week [16]. Global Commodity Market - The international oil price fluctuated and closed higher for the week. Precious metal prices retreated from their highs but still closed higher for the week. Most major agricultural product prices rose, while most non-ferrous metal prices declined [18]. Domestic Major Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market - The A-share market's major broad-based indices generally declined. The trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style underperformed. Among sectors, consumer services and textile and apparel led the gains, while communication and electronics performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.18% for the week [21]. Domestic Bond Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. The liquidity tightened marginally. The bond market fluctuated and trended stronger. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [24]. Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market closed higher for the week. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the energy sector performed poorly [25]. Outlook for Major Asset Prices - After the end of the US government shutdown, market liquidity is expected to gradually return to normal. Attention should be paid to the overall changes in market liquidity [3][29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a short - term rebound supported by policy and environmental protection expectations, but its sustainability is to be observed. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets are also likely to be in a volatile state [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. - Iron - making water production rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, the proportion of steel - mill losses increased, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level. - The previous adjustment of the futures was relatively sufficient, the support at the lower edge of the shock range increased, and short - term rebound was supported by policy and environmental protection expectations [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures rebounded today and fluctuated recently. - On the supply side, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly this period, reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rebounded to a high level. The domestic arrival volume decreased to below the annual average. - On the demand side, steel demand was weak in the off - season, steel - mill losses intensified, and iron - making water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. - The iron - ore fundamentals became looser, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price rose today. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing on demand and weak trader purchasing willingness. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price rose strongly today. The output of coking - coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions were normal, and transaction prices varied. Terminal inventory increased slightly. - The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory also increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, the coking - coal futures were at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese continued to decline slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly. - The forward price of manganese ore from Comilog increased slightly, and the spot ore price fluctuated quickly. Manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, and contradictions were not prominent. The price had strong bottom support [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The output of magnesium metal increased, and secondary demand increased marginally. - Ferrosilicon supply decreased but remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. Due to the increase in electricity and semi - coke prices, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [7]

| Million >国技期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号，全国累积加工皮棉390. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefins and polyolefins market shows mixed trends, with propylene having price support and plastics and polypropylene facing supply - demand imbalances but potential for technical rebounds [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks, with caution on pure benzene rebounds and a relatively stable situation for styrene [3] - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, with PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip having their own supply - demand and price trends [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a potentially volatile urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows PVC in a narrow - range oscillation and caustic soda in a weak state [7] - The soda ash - glass market has an oversupply situation in the long - term for soda ash and a weak reality for glass [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts oscillated and tested the 5 - day moving average. Propylene prices are supported by low enterprise inventories and good downstream demand [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. Supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to decline seasonally, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas gasoline trends are strong, but the rebound of domestic pure benzene is limited. A strategy of shorting on rallies and reverse spreads on monthly differentials is recommended [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts rose slightly. Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory reduction [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but PTA load is decreasing due to device maintenance. Caution is needed when being bullish on PX, and PTA processing margins fluctuate with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventories rose. A bearish view is maintained, and reverse spreads on monthly differentials are recommended [5] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand fades with the cooling weather [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures declined significantly. Overseas device start - up increased, and port inventories remained high. Demand is likely to be weak, and the market will continue to be weak [6] - Urea futures were strong, but there is a possibility of a downward trend as the market sentiment returns to rationality. Attention should be paid to Indian urea tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. Supply is high and demand is weak, so PVC may oscillate in a narrow range [7] - Caustic soda declined. Supply is high, and downstream demand is insufficient. Its weak operation should be monitored for profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Costs increased, and production decreased due to some plant maintenance. It is in an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass oscillated. Intermediate inventories are high, and the market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, showing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market faces increasing supply - demand pressure in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, with a medium - term downward risk for oil prices [2] - Fuel oil prices mainly follow crude oil trends. High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term supported by geopolitical factors, while the medium - term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil has improved fundamentals recently but faces medium - term supply pressure [2] - The cost support for asphalt continues to weaken, demand is seasonally weakening, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are bearish [2] - The supply - demand of liquefied petroleum gas is marginally tightening, so it can be regarded as oscillating strongly [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices fluctuated, with the Brent 01 contract rising 0.93%. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported oil prices, but the recovery of the attacked Russian Black Sea port led to a price drop. Pay attention to the impact of Russian oil sanctions on exports and the release of Venezuelan risks [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term supported by geopolitical factors as Russian exports decline marginally due to sanctions and facility attacks. However, the medium - term supply will be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong recent performance due to supply fluctuations, support from refinery operation instability, and demand during the peak shipping fuel season. But the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFCC device may increase the supply [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support. Weekly shipments have decreased since November, and inventory de - stocking has slowed. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a bearish impact on the market [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation devices boosts downstream chemical enterprise开工, and the cooling weather drives up combustion demand. The tightening supply - demand situation makes LPG oscillate strongly [3]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The November 2025/26 USDA report shows a significant increase in global cotton production, while consumption remains relatively stable, resulting in a looser supply situation. The report is overall bearish, and in the medium to short term, US cotton may continue to trade in a low - range oscillation [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in 2025/26 was significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September. China's production was raised by 218,000 tons to 7.294 million tons; Brazil's by 108,000 tons; and US cotton production was sharply increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons due to favorable weather in Texas and an increase in yield per unit [1]. - **Consumption**: Global consumption was slightly increased by 11,000 tons, with no major adjustments to the data of major consuming countries. Despite the easing of Sino - US relations, overall cotton consumption remains stable [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: Global imports were increased by 65,000 tons, with Vietnam's imports up by 21,000 tons and China's by 44,000 tons. Global exports were also increased by 65,000 tons, with Brazil's exports up by 44,000 tons and the US's by 43,000 tons [1]. - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in 2025/26 were significantly increased by 607,000 tons compared to September. China's ending stocks were up by 261,000 tons, the US's by 152,000 tons, and Brazil's by 65,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 11, the total global cotton production increased from 24.894 million tons to 26.145 million tons, with a monthly increase of 523,000 tons and an annual increase of 174,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Consumption**: The total global cotton consumption increased from 25.193 million tons in 2021/22 to 25.883 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 11,000 tons and an annual decrease of 35,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Imports**: The total global cotton imports increased from 9.344 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.581 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 65,000 tons and an annual increase of 212,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Exports**: The total global cotton exports increased from 9.29 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.58 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 65,000 tons and an annual increase of 342,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Ending Stocks**: The total global ending stocks increased from 15.501 million tons in 2021/22 to 16.532 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 607,000 tons and an annual increase of 315,000 tons in 2025/26 [4].