Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, there was a slight shortage of manganese ore in China due to the lack of supply from South32's Australian mines and reduced supply from Comilog. However, the return of South32's Australian mines in May will increase the supply elasticity of manganese ore, so there's no need to worry too much about Comilog's supply reduction [19]. Summary by Company South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's manganese ore production was 47.6 tons (0 tons from Australian mines), a year - on - year decrease of 59.49% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 57.65%. Sales volume was 40.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.91% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 18.27% [2][6]. - The Australian manganese company has been implementing an operation recovery plan since Q3 2024 after being affected by Tropical Cyclone Megan. It is expected to resume export sales in Q2 2025 (about 50,000 tons of manganese ore will arrive at Chinese ports at the end of May). The 25 - fiscal - year production guidance remains unchanged at 1 million tons, and the primary concentrator will restart in Q2 2025 [8]. - From Q3 2024 to Q1 2025, the marketable output of South African manganese decreased by 5% to 1.558 million tons. The sales in Q1 2025 decreased by 18% due to port congestion. The 25 - fiscal - year production guidance remains unchanged at 2 million tons [9]. Eramet - Comilog - In Q1 2025, Comilog's manganese ore production was 1.785 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 44.3%. Sales volume was 1.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.42% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.55% [6][12]. - In Q1 2025, global manganese ore consumption reached 5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6%. Supply was stable at 4.6 million tons. There was a shortage of manganese ore supply, and the ore inventory at Chinese ports decreased significantly to 3.7 million tons at the end of March [13]. - The average price of the manganese ore price index (CRU) (CIF China 44%) was $4.6 per dry metric ton, an 8% increase compared to Q4 2024. The average quarterly offshore cash cost was $2.4 per ton - degree, a 7% year - on - year increase [13][14]. - It is expected that global carbon steel production will remain stable in 2025. The supply is expected to continue to decline in the first half of the year and increase again in the second half. The average price in 2025 is expected to be about $4.7 per ton - degree, and the transportation volume will be between 6.7 million and 7.2 million tons [16]. Tshipi - In Q1 2025, Tshipi exported 777,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.78%. The supply level was in line with seasonal patterns, and sales volume was not increased when the manganese ore price was relatively high [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Report's Core Views - The macro factors dominate the continuous rebound of the methanol market. With the recovery of domestic production and imports, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply increases while the demand decreases. Both the inland and ports may enter the inventory accumulation cycle [2]. - Urea prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. The relevant associations plan to organize self - disciplined urea exports in 2026, with a self - disciplined quantity of about 2 million tons before April. The supply is sufficient, and appropriate exports can relieve the domestic supply pressure, and the short - term market may be strong [3]. - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to rise. The macro - positive factors are released, and the market sentiment improves. Although the polyethylene terminal industry is in the off - season, the orders of export - oriented enterprises may improve. The supply - side maintenance provides support, but the weak demand restricts the increase [4]. - The main contract of styrene futures closes at the daily limit. Driven by the rebound of pure benzene prices and the positive macro news, the styrene market trading sentiment improves, and there is a demand to fill the gap on the disk [6]. - Affected by the rebound of oil prices and the expectation of good demand, the prices of PX and PTA continue to rise, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of ethylene glycol is strong, and the short - fiber price rebounds. The bottle chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin is squeezed [7]. - The supply of PVC remains high, and the domestic demand is weak. The tariff policy eases to some extent the export of PVC products. The caustic soda market may fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [8]. - The glass futures price drops again due to high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash futures price also declines under the pattern of high inventory and falling costs [9]. Summary by Product Methanol - Macro factors lead to the continuous rebound of the methanol market. The capacity utilization rate of inland plants rises, and most olefin plants are under maintenance. The traditional downstream starts to decline, and the inventory of methanol producers increases. The import volume rebounds, and the MTO plant operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang slightly increases. With the recovery of domestic production and imports, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply increases while the demand decreases. Both the inland and ports may enter the inventory accumulation cycle [2]. Urea - Urea prices remain high and fluctuate. The relevant associations plan to organize self - disciplined urea exports in 2026, with a self - disciplined quantity of about 2 million tons before April. The demand has limited impact on the market. The compound fertilizer industry's operation rate declines, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has a gap but is scattered. There is new production capacity to be put into operation, and appropriate exports can relieve the domestic supply pressure. The short - term market may be strong [3]. Polyolefin - The main contracts of polyolefin futures rise. The macro - positive factors are released, and the market sentiment improves. The polyethylene terminal industry is in the off - season, but the orders of export - oriented enterprises may improve. The supply - side maintenance provides support, but the weak demand restricts the increase [4]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closes at the daily limit. Driven by the rebound of pure benzene prices and the positive macro news, the styrene market trading sentiment improves, and there is a demand to fill the gap on the disk [6]. Polyester - Affected by the rebound of oil prices and the expectation of good demand, the prices of PX and PTA continue to rise, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of ethylene glycol is strong, and the short - fiber price rebounds. The bottle chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin is squeezed [7]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC remains high, and the domestic demand is weak. The tariff policy eases to some extent the export of PVC products. The caustic soda market may fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass futures price drops again due to high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash futures price also declines under the pattern of high inventory and falling costs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of commodity short positions increased slightly, with the chemical sector rising, but the factor strength of precious metals and agricultural products decreased compared to last week. The relatively strong sectors in cross - section are non - ferrous and chemical, while the relatively weak one is the black sector [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Overall Situation - Gold's time - series momentum declined, and the trading volume of Shanghai Gold decreased marginally, while silver changed relatively little. The non - ferrous sector showed some divergence in trading volume but significant cross - sectional differentiation, with copper and tin being relatively strong. In the black sector, the divergence of term structure narrowed, the trading volume factor of iron ore declined, and the momentum factor had poor continuity. In the energy and chemical sector, the cross - sectional momentum of chemicals was still higher than that of energy products. For agricultural products, the trading volume of oil and meal decreased marginally, but soft commodities increased slightly [3] Strategy Net Value and Signal Analysis - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.19%, and the inventory factor declined by 0.18%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. Fundamentally, the methanol import volume gives a long signal on the supply side; the capacity utilization rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and methanol - to - olefin plants decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the port continued to accumulate inventory, making the inventory side neutral to bearish; the East China basis of methanol and the 9 - 1 spread give long signals, making the spread side neutral to bullish [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.17%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the operating rate of float glass enterprises changed little month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction area of commercial housing in third - tier cities gave a short signal with a low contribution, making the demand side neutral; the weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese float glass increased, changing the inventory side from long to neutral; the main continuous basis factor continuously gave short signals with low strength, and the spread side remained neutral [7] - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply weakened by 0.36%, the inventory factor and spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains long. The arrival volume of Rizhao Port iron ore increased compared to last week, keeping the supply side signal long. The monthly output of WSA blast furnace pig iron in China decreased compared to last month, changing the demand side signal to neutral. The inventory of 45 ports of iron ore concentrate increased this week, keeping the inventory side neutral. The price of Atlas iron powder for sale at Rizhao Port increased, changing the spread side signal to long [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.22%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.20%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.23%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.19%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.21%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates continued to decline, keeping the supply side signal short. The export volume of Chinese starting lead - acid batteries in May decreased compared to April, changing the demand side signal to neutral. The LME lead inventory continued to decline, keeping the inventory side short. The 0 - 1 spread continued to decline, changing the spread side signal to neutral [9] Performance Data | Category | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.19 | - 0.14 | | Demand | 0.00 | - 0.62 | | Inventory | - 0.18 | 1.00 | | Spread | 0.00 | - 0.15 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.00 | - 0.41 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ななな [1] - Apple: ななな [1] - Timber: ななな [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides investment operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and market sentiment analysis for each commodity, with most current suggestions being to wait and see [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Today, cotton prices continued to rise. Domestic cotton spot trading volume was average, and the mainstream basis remained stable. Downstream cotton yarn inventory was accumulating, with insufficient market orders and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The Sino - US trade negotiation was better than expected, and domestic textile and clothing exports in April were okay. If the negotiation continued to improve, there might be a tighter end - of - season inventory. Suggested operation: wait and see or try the bull spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For Brazil, the 25/26 crushing season supply was expected to be bearish. The domestic sales data in April was bullish. Although Guangxi increased production this year, inventory decreased year - on - year due to a faster sales pace. The import volume of sugar and syrup in the first quarter decreased significantly. The US sugar trend was downward, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar was limited. It was expected that the short - term sugar price would fluctuate. Suggested operation: wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Spot mainstream prices remained stable. Due to rising temperatures and the listing of seasonal fruits, apple demand declined, and the procurement enthusiasm of merchants decreased. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. Although the flower volume in the western producing areas was sufficient, the fruit - setting rate was low, and the output might be lower than expected. Suggested operation: wait and see [4] 20 - number rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, RU&NR opened high and closed low, and BR continued to rise sharply. The supply of global natural rubber entered the growth period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device start - up rate changed. The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, and the finished - product inventory decreased. The inventory of natural rubber and butadiene rubber increased. Strategy: hold the inter - variety arbitrage on the rebound [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices rose first and then fell. As of May 8, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports decreased. The external quotation was lowered, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand and price - pressing. The Sino - US negotiation was better than expected. Suggested operation: wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. Spot mainstream prices remained stable. The New Zealand log shipment entered the off - season, and the demand peak was over. The national log inventory continued to decrease, but the radiata pine inventory increased. The timber fundamentals were relatively weak. It was expected that the futures price would fluctuate. Suggested operation: wait and see [8]

安如泰山 信守承诺 苯乙烯:超跌反弹 回补缺口 化工视点 2024年我国莽乙烯产能高速扩张之势暂缓,但近5年以来我国苯乙烯产能复合增长率高达17.9%,累积起来 的庞大产能,导致苯乙烯行业供应压力凸现,而下游产能扩张增速不及苯乙烯,导致供需错配,进口量持续奏 缩，以缓解内部供需矛盾，但目前苯乙烯进口蛋缺乏进一步压缩空间。随着上游原油价格和纯苯价格的下跌， 成本端的崩塌成为压垮苯乙烯价格的重要固素。苯乙烯期货主力合约自2024年6月以来一直处于熊市格局当中， 主要压力来自于成本端。随着中美贸易谈判取得重要进展,成本端油价反弹,纯萃价格跟随反弹,市场交授情 错明显改善,萃乙烯价格一改前期颜势,今日苯乙烯期货主力合约涨停收盘,上方近期关注前期造留铁口回补 情况。 一、宏观利好提振,成本端支撑走强 2025年4月,美国政府以"对等关税"为名,对中国商品加征34%至104%的惩罚性关税,全球贸易体系随之 剧烈震荡。4月3日苯乙烯期货主力合约收盘价为7825,4月7日苯乙烯期货主力合约跌停收盘,收强价7374。透 留很大的跳空缺口。尽管近一段时期基本面有所改善,但关税战的影响,导致市场想观情绪蔓延,油价在全球 经济预期低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA's May report adjustments for the 2024/25 cotton season are slightly bullish, but the impact on prices may be limited. U.S.-China relations have eased, but the effect on consumption remains to be seen. For the 2025/26 season, the initial forecast shows some improvement in global supply and demand, but there are still significant uncertainties in production estimates and consumption, making the overall impact of the report neutral [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content 2024/25 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production increased by 3.9 million tons, consumption by 14.3 million tons, and imports and exports by 2.6 million tons. China's cotton imports were further reduced by 10.9 million tons to 130.6 million tons, and the global ending stock for the 2024/25 season decreased by 9.9 million tons compared to the previous month [1] 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments Production - Global cotton production decreased by 71 million tons compared to the previous year. China's production decreased by 65.3 million tons to 631.4 million tons; India's decreased by 10.9 million tons; Brazil's increased by 27.3 million tons; the U.S.'s increased by 1.9 million tons; Pakistan's increased by 10.8 million tons; and Australia's decreased by 32.6 million tons [1] Consumption - Global consumption increased by 30.4 million tons compared to the previous year. China's consumption decreased by 10.9 million tons, while India's increased by 10.9 million tons, Turkey's by 8.7 million tons, and Vietnam's by 6.6 million tons. Due to uncertainties in global economic growth and trade, a cautious attitude is taken towards consumption data [2] Imports - Global cotton imports increased by 51 million tons compared to the previous year. China's imports increased by 21.8 million tons, Turkey's by 15.3 million tons, and Pakistan's decreased by 17.4 million tons [2] Exports - Global exports increased by 51.7 million tons. The U.S. exports increased by 30.5 million tons, Brazil's by 23.9 million tons, and Australia's decreased by 8.7 million tons [2] Ending Stocks - Global ending stocks decreased by 0.6 million tons compared to the previous year. China's ending stocks decreased by 13.1 million tons, Australia's by 14.2 million tons, Brazil's increased by 16.4 million tons, and the U.S.'s increased by 8.7 million tons [2]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月13日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面高开低走。节前下游补库透支,淡季临近需求走弱,螺纹表需大幅下滑，产量有所回落,库存有所累积。热卷需求同 步回落，产量趋稳，库存有所累积。铁水产量处于高位，供应压力明显增大，终端承接能力不足引发负反馈担忧。从下游行业 看，4月CPI、PPI依然低迷，制造业景气度有所下滑，地产销售复苏 ...

今日燃油系期货均走强,LU表现强于FU。OPEC+增产背景下高硫燃料油面临供应端利空,且FU裂解估值已至高位亦 抑制炼厂原押雷求,基本面边际转弱下FU裂解面临高位回落压力;低硫燃料油估值相对偏低叠加船加油需求迎来季 节性提升,低硫燃料油现货贴水、月差均走强,预计LU单边走强偏强持续。裂解方面,考虑到海外渣油加氢产能与 国内配额充裕,中期来看LU裂解强势持续性有限。 【沥青】 沥青跟随原油上行,涨幅够小于原油。此前烧厂生产沥青利润大幅修复,中石油炼厂增产沥青,山东部分地炼相继 转产沥青,整体来看国内沥青供应增加。假期后市场备货需求热度有所消退,周废沥青出货量为34.3万吨，环比下 降9.5万吨。裁至5月12日,54家样本炼厂库存环比上升4万吨至92.1万吨;104家样本社会降环比下降1.4万吨至 190.3万吨,整体库存水平回升。油价反弹叠加沥青基本面阶段性转弱,BU裂解价差面临高位回落压力。 | 《》 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月13日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F030 ...

操作评级 贵金属 女女女 普金属日报 2025年05月13日 刘冬博 高级分析师 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场反应强 烈,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价下跌已接近10%，关注3200美元处支撑有效性。上周美联 储会议鲍威尔室申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,今晚关注美国CPI数据。 市场对于黄金下跌的解释: 1. 贸易硝烟散去削弱避险价值 黄金作为"乱世英雄"的特性正在经受考验。上个月当特朗普政府突然宣布全面加征关税时,金价曾单周暴涨 8%触及3500美元历史高位。如今随着贸易战火药味淡化,BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash指出:"市场对 白宫反复无常政策的过度反应,反而成为金价回调的伏笔。" 2. 美元王者归来压制金价 美元指数同日暴涨1.5%突破101关口,创下近两个月新高至101.97。这形成了对黄金的双重打击:一方面美 元计价使黄金对海外买家更昂贵, ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月13日 【原油】 【锌】 中美贸易谈判结果超预期,市场风险情绪明显好转,沪锌低位反弹。就具体关税税率而言,国内商 品转口贸易利润仍大于直接对美出口,实际对消费端的提振预计有限。同时美国锌精矿进口至国内 的关税压力大减,成本端支撑转弱。基本面仍显供强需弱,延续反弹空配看法。 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明大超预期,本次关税降级对中美原油及油品贸易流并无直接影响，而 是进一步延续了上周美英贸易协议以来的贸易战阶段性缓和、经济衰退担忧修复主题。需求现实层 面同样具有韧性,临近北美夏季出行旺季,美国汽油表需相对坚挺,加之尼日利亚丹格特炼厂RFCC 装置检修的供应抗动，全球轻质馏分产品库存屡创新低,海外汽油裂解、综合炼化利润迎来修复。 但考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增产周期,近期美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈亦均有乐观信号释放,她练缓和 大背景下供应制裁风险弱化,油价反弹空间亦不过分乐观,布伦特关注70美元/桶压力位、S0关注 510元/桶压力位。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场 反应 ...