Report Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Short - fiber: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Methanol: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Glass: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Soda ash: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows different trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, policy factors, and cost fluctuations. Overall, the market is complex, with some products in a weak or volatile state, while others may have short - term upward trends [2][3][7] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price fell slightly. Domestic device capacity utilization is high, many olefin devices are under maintenance, traditional downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises are destocking. Import volume is decreasing, and port inventory is significantly reduced. The market is expected to be weak and volatile due to increased supply and decreased demand [2] Urea - The urea futures price is oscillating, and the spot price is stable with a slight decline. The market's bullish sentiment has weakened after the self - regulatory export meeting. Production enterprises have significantly reduced inventory, and ports are accumulating inventory. Industrial and agricultural demand has limited impact on the market, and the market is expected to operate within a range under the influence of price - stabilizing policies [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures prices fluctuate narrowly. After a sharp rise, there is a need for technical adjustment. The market hype sentiment for polyethylene remains, and the prices of petrochemical and traders are rising. The willingness of downstream factories to accept high prices has weakened, and middlemen are waiting and watching [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price is consolidating narrowly. The planned shutdown of a cracking unit and early maintenance of styrene devices support the price, but the cost support is weakening after the decline of crude oil and pure benzene prices. The market direction is to be determined after filling the price gap [6] Polyester - Affected by the adjustment of oil prices, PX and PTA prices have fallen. The polyester industry's operating rate is rising, and downstream demand has improved. However, the cash flow of polyester filament enterprises is poor, and there are potential risks. The price of ethylene glycol has fallen, and the future supply is expected to be under pressure. The price of short - fiber has adjusted slightly, and the processing margin is still low. The production of bottle - grade polyester chips is increasing, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices continue to rise, and futures prices are strong. Tariff policy easing may improve exports, and supply pressure is relieved due to increased maintenance. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly. Supply pressure in Shandong is relieved, and downstream demand is average. The profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has recovered, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices are weak due to inventory accumulation and price reduction in the spot market. Inventory pressure is high, and downstream demand is still weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs. Soda ash supply has decreased after maintenance, but the industry is still slightly accumulating inventory. The futures price is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term. In the long term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [9]

| 11/11/2 ■投前货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月15日 | | 贵金属 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属延续回调。证期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的押注,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢 价。国际金价处于调整过程中,关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。今晚关注美国PPI、零售销售和周废初清 矢业金人数。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 4月GPI数据让市场更加固惑 -- 整体通胀率同比仅增长2.3%,创下四年来的最低水平,主要得益于食品价格 的下跌。然而,剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率却依然高达2.8%,远超美联储2%的目标。这种"表面降温、内 部火热"的局 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The amendment to the 45Z clean fuel production credit is beneficial for the continuous development of the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries and the stable demand for vegetable oil raw materials [3]. - The policy is expected to boost the crushing demand for US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, as well as the industrial demand for local raw materials in the US, Canada, and Mexico. It is not conducive to the import demand for UCO, etc., and will make the prices of CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybeans stronger than those in other regions, and strengthen the international soybean - cotton price spread [6]. - Adjusting the greenhouse gas emissions in the life - cycle to exclude emissions from indirect land - use changes is expected to reduce the carbon emission coefficient of vegetable oils, obtain more subsidies, and support the price of CBOT soybeans [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Introduction of the Draft - On May 12, 2025, the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Energy and Commerce Committee released draft proposals for their respective parts of the reconciliation budget package, including amendments to the 45Z clean fuel production credit [3]. 2. Analysis of Amendment Clauses 2.1 Extension of 45Z Credit - The 45Z tax credit will be extended to the end of 2031, which was originally set to expire on December 31, 2027. This is beneficial for the continuous development of the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries and the stable demand for vegetable oil raw materials [3]. 2.2 Restriction of Tax Credit Eligibility - Tax credit eligibility is restricted to fuels made from raw materials produced or grown in the US, Mexico, and Canada. In 2024, vegetable oils were mainly sourced from local raw materials in the US, Canada, and Mexico, while animal fats and yellow greases still had raw materials from other regions. The policy is expected to increase the industrial demand for vegetable oils (rapeseed oil and soybean oil), compete with North American edible demand, and change the import structure of North American vegetable oils [4][5][6]. 2.3 Adjustment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Adjusting the life - cycle greenhouse gas emissions to exclude emissions from indirect land - use changes is expected to change the calculation method of greenhouse gas emissions in the 45Z credit life - cycle, reduce the carbon emission coefficient of vegetable oils, and obtain more subsidies. For example, the subsidy for making renewable diesel with soybean oil is estimated to increase from $0.23 per gallon to $0.52 per gallon [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月14日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续反弹。节前下游补库透支,淡季临近需求走弱，螺纹表需大幅下滑，产量有所回落,库存有所累积。热卷需求同 步回落，产量趋稳，库存有所累积。铁水产量处于高位，供应压力明显增大，终端承接能力不足引发负反馈担忧。从下游行业 看，4月CPI、PPI依然低迷，制造业景气度有所下滑，地产销售复苏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] Group 2: Core Views - The methanol market faces risks of returning to fundamental trading after the macro - driven rally fades due to increased supply and decreased demand [2] - The urea market is expected to maintain range - bound operation with sufficient supply and limited influence from industrial and agricultural demand [3] - The polyolefin market shows positive sentiment driven by macro factors, but downstream buyers remain cautious [4] - The styrene market has temporarily alleviated supply - demand contradictions with expected production decline and order recovery [6] - The polyester market has potential risks such as weakening cash flow and possible production cuts, with different trends for each product [7] - The chlor - alkali market has different trends for PVC and caustic soda, with PVC potentially oscillating strongly and caustic soda facing high - level pressure in the medium term [8] - The glass and soda ash markets are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with glass having high inventory pressure and soda ash having supply - side changes [9] Group 3: Summaries by Product Methanol - Macro sentiment drives the methanol price up, but there are risks of returning to fundamentals due to increased domestic supply, expected import recovery, and decreased traditional downstream demand [2] Urea - The urea price declined slightly, with reduced inventory due to previous export rumors. Future supply is sufficient, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3] Polyolefin - Macro factors boost the polyolefin market, but downstream buyers are cautious. Polyethylene is in the off - season, while polypropylene has support from concentrated maintenance [4] Styrene - Macro factors and supply reduction from plant maintenance, along with expected order recovery, ease supply - demand contradictions [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are rising, but there are potential risks such as weakening cash flow and possible production cuts. Ethylene glycol supply is shrinking, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets have their own characteristics [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC shows strong performance due to macro factors and export improvement, but faces supply pressure. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate in the short term and face high - level pressure in the medium term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has high inventory pressure and is expected to follow cost fluctuations. Soda ash supply is decreasing, and it is also expected to follow cost changes with long - term supply pressure [9]

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月14日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆★ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天知棉继续上涨,国产棉现货交数一般,主流基差维持稳定;下游纪棉纱库存不断景积,市场订单不足,下游刚需采购为 主。她棉纱波季背景下下游需求偏弱,则需采购,对于棉纱涨价接受废不高。中美贸易谈判好于预期,关注后续外需能否好 转。国内4月份纺服出口表现尚可, 4月,我国出口纺织品服装241.86亿美元,同比增加1.1% ...

| 11/11/2 | ■技能采 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月14日 | | 贵金属 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属震荡。 美国公布4月0P1年率为2.3%低于预期的2.4%, 为2021年2月以来新低,核心CP12.8%持平于预期 和前值,数据发布后市场反应温和,关税影响尚未体现。近期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的 押注，情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价处于调整过程中，关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。 美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示,4月CPI环比仅上涨0.2%,低于预期的0.3%。市场普遍预期美联储将在9月 恢复降息。值得注意的是,尽管当前通胀压力不大,但未来几个月随着关税效应的显现,通胀可能再度抬 头。这种预期正在促使更多投资者将黄金作为对冲通胀的工具。 黄金面临三 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合履报 2025年05月14日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价延续中美关税超预期降级后的修复性反弹,布伦特07合约涨2.48%。需求现实层面同 样具有韧性,临近北美夏季出行旺季,美国汽油表需相对坚挺,加之部分炼厂凝置检修的供应抗 动，全球轻质馏分产品库存屡创新低，海外汽油裂解、综合炼化利润迎来修复。上周美国API 汽油、 精炼油库存均下降,原油库存超预期增加428.7万 桶。原油近期反弹势头有望延续,但考虑到 OPEC+已进入快速增产周期,美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈亦均有乐观信号释放,她缘缓和大背景下供应 制裁风险弱化,关税降叙带动的油价反弹空间不过分乐观,震荡区间以布伦特57-70美元/桶、 WTI51-67美元/桶、SC430-510元/桶为主,重点关注区间边界的反向操作或期权买入机会。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。 美国公布4月0P1年率为2.3%低于预期的2.4%,为2021年2月以来新低,核心 CP12.8%持平于预期和前值,数据发布后市场反应温和,关税影响尚未体现。近期贸易和地缘谈判 降低市场对于美国经济表退的押注，情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际 ...