Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (国产大豆): ★☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks based on factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean futures saw significant position - cutting, and prices rebounded from a phased low. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, and new bean quotes are weak. China has accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans this week, which helps to gradually reduce domestic soybean inventory and mitigate supply - chain risks in Q1 next year. The supply in Q2 next year depends on the Brazilian new crop [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures rose 1.54% today. US policies have a large impact on the soybean meal market. The short - term bearish trend may end, and the long - term outlook for Dalian soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil futures cut positions, and prices rebounded rapidly. China's short - term active purchase of Argentine beans and large domestic inventory buffers will help reduce inventory. The EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation regulations, improving the medium - to - long - term demand outlook for palm oil. In the medium term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures prices rebounded today, offsetting some previous losses. The domestic rapeseed inventory is extremely low, and coastal oil mills may shut down after the National Day. The consumption of vegetable oil will improve in autumn and winter, and the de - stocking of rapeseed oil is expected to continue. The rapeseed futures are expected to stabilize in the short term but have limited upside [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to decline today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. With the increase in the listing volume of new corn in the Northeast, the opening price has been falling. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs hit a new low, and the futures market was weak. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year. The entry timing of secondary fattening and government support policies need to be monitored. The current futures price of live pigs is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated narrowly, and near - month contracts rebounded slightly. The spot price has been falling in many places. After the National Day, egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered [9]

安如泰山 信守承诺 具体来看，本周油市的偏强表现受到俄乌局势、伊朗核谈、委内瑞拉出口限制多方因素的共振推动，那么 这些因素的利多影响是否可持续? 十一前后油市地缘风险升温,核心聚焦俄乌演绎 能源评论 本周地缘风险的升温再次引领原油系品种上行，从相对强弱来看，近两个交易日布伦特涨3.8%、WTI涨 4%，截至周四上午收盘内盘SC涨3.6%、FU涨4.6%、LU涨2.7%、BU涨1.9%，即对外部地缘犹动更为敏感的 原油、燃料油期货涨幅居前。 在8月15日美俄元首的阿拉斯加会谈未取得明确成果后，近期特朗普言论再次倒向支持乌克兰，不仅反复要 求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还称乌方可能"赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状" Polvmarket对年内 小ツ 血档/水江 郑大邱 今 竹 吊 称 ￣q ， 梁 今 Ｊ 昭 厕 王 จ 为 一 ， 权 报 不 ， ヤ ym Kr 铁 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中持续对俄罗斯施压，8月俄罗斯炼厂遇袭受影响的产能在120万桶/天左右，在俄罗斯占比17％，9月以来全国 炼厂加工量494万桶/天，较8月水平进一步下降15万桶/天，目最新周度数据显示开工率仍在环比 ...

聚烯烃期货主力合约日内窄幅收涨。基本面上,聚乙烯成本端支撑增强,低价有一定成交,但是业者对后市信 心不足,推涨谨慎,仅低价资源减少,维持积极出货趋势。聚丙烯方面,临近双节,包装领域出现好转,一定 程度上减弱下跌幅度,然整体供应层面依旧宽松,现货行情并未得到强有力支撑,中间商让利出货为主。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯小幅减仓反弹,价格回到5900元/吨以上;华东现货近端偏弱,远端稍显坚挺,山东地炼普遍涨价,成 交依旧较好。周内有重启和新停车，整体开工略有回升,加工差低位震荡，港口库存下降,现实基本面尚可, 现货价格相对坚挺，基差持续回升;但进口量偏高预期及下游产品利润不佳拖累市场,预期偏弱压制市场情 绪,反弹相对乏力。 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅收涨。基本面上,市场供应趋势增加，生产企业存一定出货需求，不过伴随丙烯让 利,部分下游工厂择低采购,市场低价成交放量,整体交投咯见改善。 | Million >国技期员 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年09月25日 | | 影丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a volatile pattern, with demand expectations being pessimistic and the market sentiment cautious [1] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment [3][5] - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices have an upward drive, and it is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti - involution" background [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures fluctuated mainly. Thread demand continued to recover, production stabilized, and inventory declined. Hot - rolled coil demand and production slightly decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [1] - Iron - water production remained high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, but poor steel profits restricted further production resumption space [1] - Downstream demand was weak, with real - estate investment decline expanding, and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down. Steel exports remained high [1] Iron Ore - The supply side was relatively strong, with overseas shipments being relatively high and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly recently. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory fluctuated mainly [2] - The demand side was supported by high short - term iron - water production. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still a certain pre - holiday replenishment demand [2] - The market speculative sentiment was volatile due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and pending domestic policies [2] Coke - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The first round of coke price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased [3] - The supply of carbon elements was sufficient, and high downstream hot - metal levels supported the price. The pre - National Day replenishment sentiment also contributed to the relatively firm price [3] Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a strong - side fluctuation. Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the National Day holiday and resumed on October 8th [5] - Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, with more spot auction transactions and improved prices [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The possibility of further significant capacity release was low under the over - production inspection background [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept provided an upward drive [6] - Demand was supported by high iron - water production. Weekly production increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices were slightly higher, and inventory accumulation was slow [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept drove the price up [7] - Total demand was acceptable, with high iron - water production and stable export demand. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly [7] - Supply recovered to a high level, market spot and futures demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [4] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor market operability and suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [4] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors are having a significant impact on the energy market, and the key window period for geopolitical games may occur around the National Day holidays, affecting the supply and price trends of various energy products [2] - For different energy products, their price trends are affected by a combination of geopolitical factors, supply and demand conditions, and seasonal factors, with each having its own characteristics and short - to medium - term outlooks [2][3] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded sharply, with the SC11 contract rising 1.72% during the day. There are potential impacts on oil prices from the geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - nuclear issues. The short - term upward risk of oil prices remains, and hedging short positions in crude oil - related futures should be combined with call options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market continued to rise, driven by geopolitical factors affecting the cost side and supply tightening expectations. However, in the medium term, with the arrival of the off - season and supply easing, a bearish view is maintained. The current supply - demand contradiction of low - sulfur fuel oil is not prominent, and its price is still suppressed, but the overall fuel oil market may be affected by the development of the geopolitical situation [2] Asphalt - The terminal in the northern region has pre - holiday rush - work demand, while the typhoon affects the demand in the southern region. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the supply - demand tight - balance pattern continues, providing support for the price of asphalt [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG oscillated strongly at a low level today. The supply decreased due to factors such as increased refinery self - use and the impact of typhoons on imports. With the arrival of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the bottom of the LPG price may have emerged [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided documents. The reports mainly focus on presenting data related to various ETFs and indices, including price, volatility, and skew index over a certain period. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Data (13 - day data) - For 50ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price increased from 3.054 to 3.087, with the highest daily increase of 0.59% on Sep 24. The monthly IV decreased from 21.49% to 17.69% [1]. - For Shanghai 300ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price rose from 4.622 to 4.695, with the highest daily increase of 0.89% on Sep 24. The monthly IV fluctuated between 16.03% and 19.72% [3]. - For Shenzhen 300ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price increased from 4.762 to 4.844, with the highest daily increase of 1.01% on Sep 24. The monthly IV changed from 17.19% to 19.19% [7]. - For Shanghai CSI 500ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price went up from 7.277 to 7.441, with the highest daily increase of 2.25% on Sep 25. The monthly IV increased from 16.69% to 26.03% [14]. - For Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price first rose from 2.906 to 2.972 and then slightly dropped to 2.970. The monthly IV increased from 16.57% to 26.58% [22]. - For ChiNext ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price increased from 3.093 to 3.211, with the highest daily increase of 2.17% on Sep 24. The monthly IV changed from 30.72% to 41.46% [26]. - For Shenzhen 100ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price rose from 3.494 to 3.595, with the highest daily increase of 1.75% on Sep 24. The monthly IV fluctuated between 25.27% and 29.03% [33]. - For Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price increased from 1.475 to 1.548, with the highest daily increase of 3.73% on Sep 24. The monthly IV increased from 41.63% to 50.25% [41]. - For STAR 50ETF, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price rose from 1.442 to 1.513, with the highest daily increase of 3.68% on Sep 24. The monthly IV increased from 41.58% to 49.81% [48]. - For 300 Index, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price increased from 4519.778 to 4593.488, with the highest daily increase of 1.02% on Sep 24. The monthly IV decreased from 20.20% to 18.16% [55]. - For 1000 Index, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price first rose from 7408.069 to 7534.222 and then dropped to 7506.512. The monthly IV fluctuated between 27.42% and 28.25% [63]. - For Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 Index, from Sep 23 - 25, 2025, the price increased from 2919.515 to 2952.735, with the highest daily increase of 0.68% on Sep 24. The monthly IV decreased from 19.89% to 19.08% [68]. 3.2 IV Quantile Data - For 50ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 63.60% and 84.80%, and in the past 2 - year was between 74.80% and 91.00% [1]. - For Shanghai 300ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 47.30% and 77.90%, and in the past 2 - year was between 60.30% and 83.20% [3]. - For Shenzhen 300ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 55.50% and 72.20%, and in the past 2 - year was between 70.90% and 84.00% [7]. - For Shanghai CSI 500ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 21.60% and 80.80%, and in the past 2 - year was between 26.10% and 86.90% [14]. - For Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 22.40% and 80.00%, and in the past 2 - year was between 26.70% and 86.50% [22]. - For ChiNext ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 61.60% and 91.70%, and in the past 2 - year was between 78.90% and 94.80% [26]. - For Shenzhen 100ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 70.60% and 86.50%, and in the past 2 - year was between 83.20% and 92.40% [33]. - For Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 73.80% and 87.30%, and in the past 2 - year was between 88.90% and 94.40% [41]. - For STAR 50ETF, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 78.30% and 88.70%, and in the past 2 - year was between 86.90% and 94.60% [48]. - For 300 Index, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 53.40% and 80.50%, and in the past 2 - year was between 62.40% and 83.00% [55]. - For 1000 Index, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 56.70% and 79.90%, and in the past 2 - year was between 70.60% and 79.10% [63]. - For Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 Index, the monthly IV quantile in the past 1 - year was between 65.30% and 90.20%, and in the past 2 - year was between 59.10% and 95.00% [68]. 3.3 Skew Index Data - For 50ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 82.18, decreasing from 83.73 the previous day [2]. - For Shanghai 300ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 98.87, increasing from 94.55 the previous day [5]. - For Shenzhen 300ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 96.50, increasing from 95.51 the previous day [12]. - For Shanghai CSI 500ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 100.56, decreasing from 103.35 the previous day [17]. - For Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 98.83, decreasing from 99.08 the previous day [25]. - For ChiNext ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 99.99, increasing from 95.76 the previous day [30]. - For Shenzhen 100ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 98.60, increasing from 96.56 the previous day [37]. - For Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 98.68, increasing from 88.91 the previous day [44]. - For STAR 50ETF, the skew index on Sep 25, 2025, was 94.06, increasing from 91.22 the previous day [51]. - For 300 Index, no skew index data is provided. - For 1000 Index, no skew index data is provided. - For Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 Index, no skew index data is provided.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

安如泰山 信守承诺 十一前后油市地缘风险升温,核心聚焦俄乌演绎 能源评论 本周地缘风险的升温再次引领原油系品种上行，从相对强弱来看，近两个交易日布伦特涨3.8%、WTI涨 4%，截至周四上午收盘内盘SC涨3.6%、FU涨4.6%、LU涨2.7%、BU涨1.9%，即对外部地缘犹动更为敏感的 原油、燃料油期货涨幅居前。 具体来看，本周油市的偏强表现受到俄乌局势、伊朗核谈、委内瑞拉出口限制多方因素的共振推动，那么 这些因素的利多影响是否可持续? 在8月15日美俄元首的阿拉斯加会谈未取得明确成果后，近期特朗普言论再次倒向支持乌克兰，不仅反复要 求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还称乌方可能"赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状" Polvmarket对年内 小ツ 血档/水江 郑大邱 今 竹 吊 称 ￣q ， 梁 今 Ｊ 昭 厕 王 จ 为 一 ， 权 报 不 ， ヤ ym Kr 铁 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中持续对俄罗斯施压，8月俄罗斯炼厂遇袭受影响的产能在120万桶/天左右，在俄罗斯占比17％，9月以来全国 炼厂加工量494万桶/天，较8月水平进一步下降15万桶/天，目最新周度数据显示开工率仍在环比 ...

Report Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Other Key Points - Powell pointed out in a speech this week that the policy interest rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible adjustment based on data and economic prospects. Fed officials have a cautious attitude and are divided on subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims tonight, the PCE inflation data on Friday, and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut. FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that further rate cuts may be needed [2] - As of September 19, global gold ETF holdings increased at the fastest pace in three years, with a total gold - holding volume of 3779.4 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022. The net inflows in Q1 and Q2 this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, far exceeding the same period last year [2] - As of September 19, the US's SPDR Gold Shares had the largest annual inflow of gold among global gold ETFs, with an annual increase in gold demand of 122.1 tons and a cumulative holding of about 994.4 tons. China's Huaan Yifu Gold ETF also had a significant inflow, with an annual increase in demand of 28.2 tons and a cumulative holding of about 74.7 tons [2]