Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident leads to production suspension and sales volume reduction, affecting copper market supply and prices [1][3] - Global copper concentrate balance table is expected to be further adjusted, and the supply loss rate may exceed 5% in 2025 [5] - Focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market and the actual consumption strength [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On the evening of September 24, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales volume expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose sharply before the night session opened, hitting a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year; the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8, with a large amount of mud gushing out, and the mining area is basically in a state of suspension. The accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second-largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2% (still actively committed to increasing the equity ratio). The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. During the epidemic, it completed the transformation from an open-pit mine to underground mining. In 2024, the copper sales volume of the mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output. According to the 22.98 million tons of copper concentrate production of the International Copper Study Group in 2024, it accounts for about 3.3% [1] Impact of the Accident on the Mine's Sales Volume - In June 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrate unless the construction of smelter capacity is fulfilled to obtain a phased export quota. The project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine by FCX has been tortuous. The commissioning process of the Manyar smelter in 2024 was repeatedly delayed, and it was commissioned in May 2025 and produced in July (the plant is expected to produce 480,000 tons of cathode copper annually, with a concentrate processing capacity of 1.7 million tons); the Gresik smelter (jointly owned with Mitsubishi, expected to consume 40% of the copper concentrate from Grasberg and with an annual output of 342,000 tons) was shut down due to an oxygen production accident in summer. The smelting progress cannot consume the copper concentrate. After the approval of Freeport's copper concentrate export activities by the Indonesian government expired in 2024, as of the first quarter of this year, it had accumulated a large amount of concentrate inventory (it was rumored to be close to 400,000 tons at the beginning of the year), which had affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper production of the mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons [2] - In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. In 2024, the company's overall copper business in Indonesia sold 183.7 million pounds (about 830,000 tons). In 2025, it was initially expected to sell 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with last year), but only 44.3 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) were completed in the first half of the year (the pace accelerated in the third quarter). The company had previously lowered this year's expectation to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons) [2] - In March 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia (quota of about 1.27 million tons, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons), valid until September 16, 2025. As of mid-August, the company stated that it had exported about 65% of the quota and expected to use 90% of it before the expiration [3] - After the accident, FCX officially lowered the production guidance of the Grasberg copper mine. Although a small mining area that was not affected will resume production in mid - fourth quarter, Freeport Indonesia as a whole cannot complete the original sales target of 44.5 million pounds, about 200,000 tons, in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the affected mining area will be restarted in stages in 2026. The copper production target of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be directly reduced from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), a reduction of 35%. The actual copper production of Freeport Indonesia this year may only be at the level of about 500,000 tons. The operation volume of Freeport Indonesia may not return to the pre - accident level until 2027 [3] - Since Freeport Indonesia has basically completed the approval volume of copper concentrate exports in 2025, it has basically entered a gap period for external spot exports again. The domestic copper concentrate import TC quotation has turned weak again since September. In terms of production, the mine is expected to have an obvious resupply in the late first quarter of next year or even in the second half of the year [3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Table - In 2025, the severity of the accidents in global large mines is very significant. In the second quarter, the Kakula underground mine jointly operated by Ivanhoe and Zijin in the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly lowered its production increase target for 2025 due to mine earthquakes or design reasons. In the third quarter, the operation of El Teniente under Codelco in Chile was also affected by an earthquake casualty accident, and it is expected to lose 20,000 - 30,000 tons of copper. The supply loss rate of copper concentrate this year may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport Indonesia [5] - In April 2025, the ICSG initially believed that the global copper concentrate increment this year could reach 2.3%, an increase of nearly 500,000 tons. Recently, the agency will update the copper concentrate expectation again and is likely to lower it to the level of 100,000 tons. The increment in 2026 will also be affected by this accident and be correspondingly adjusted. Therefore, the specific production resupply rhythm of the 330,000 - ton Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum in Panama becomes the key. At the same time, the annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will fall into a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose sharply at night, fully digesting the short - term supply - side event. Technically, LME copper has the potential to continue to break through the upward pattern, but it is recommended to focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of Shanghai copper weighted index increased sharply, but the total position is not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident of Freeport - McMoRan Inc. in Indonesia has a significant impact on the global copper market. It will lead to a reduction in copper production and sales in 2025 - 2026, further lower the global copper concentrate balance sheet, and affect the price trend of copper. Attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Incident Introduction - On the evening of September 24, Freeport - McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at its large mine Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose before the night - session opening and hit a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year. The weighted position of SHFE copper increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8. The mine is basically in a shutdown state, and the accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second - largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport - McMoRan Inc. currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2%. The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. In 2024, the copper sales of this mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output and about 3.3% of the world's copper concentrate output in 2024 [1] Impact of the Accident on Mine Sales - In 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrates. FCX's project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine has been tortuous. The Manyar smelter was put into production in May 2025 and produced output in July. The Gresik smelter had an oxygen - making accident and shut down in summer. As of the first quarter of this year, there was a large amount of concentrate inventory, which affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper output of this mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons. In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. The original sales forecast for 2025 was 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons), but it was later lowered to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons). After the accident, the production target of the Grasberg copper mine was lowered. The overall sales target of 445 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) in the fourth quarter of Indonesia's Freeport could not be completed. The 2026 production target was directly lowered from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), and the actual copper production in Indonesia's Freeport this year may only be about 500,000 tons [2][3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Sheet - In 2025, the accidents of major mines around the world were very serious. The annual copper concentrate supply loss rate may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport in Indonesia. The ICSG may lower the expected increase of global copper concentrates in 2025 from nearly 500,000 tons to 100,000 - ton level, and the increase in 2026 will also be affected. The specific production resumption rhythm of the 330,000 - ton - level Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum becomes crucial. The annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will be in a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose at night, fully digesting short - term supply - side events. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through the chart upwards, but attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of SHFE copper weighted increased sharply, but the total position was not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 - point mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical risks dominate the rebound of oil prices, and the value of call options to protect short positions remains. Precious metals have an unchanged medium - term upward trend but increased short - term volatility. The copper market is still vigilant about macro - economic fluctuations and actual consumption. Most commodities are affected by factors such as supply, demand, geopolitical risks, and policy changes, showing different trends including upward, downward, and range - bound oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the Brent 11 - contract up 1.89%. Last week's decline in US EIA inventories and geopolitical risks supported the market. Short - term geopolitical risks drive the price rebound [2] - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated and declined. Powell's speech and Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts led to increased short - term volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper hit a new high this year. The global second - largest copper mine Grasberg declared force majeure, reducing the 2026 production target. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through, but attention should be paid to capital allocation and macro - economic indicators [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, the rise in copper prices drove non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. In September, aluminum's apparent consumption was below expectations, and there was limited upward momentum [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuations of SHFE aluminum. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax policy adjustment expectations may make it more resilient [6] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity reached a new high, and the inventory continued to rise. Supply is in excess, and the price is weakly running, with support around 2800 yuan [7] - **Zinc**: The internal and external markets diverged. The zinc ingot export window is close to opening, but the export volume is expected to be limited. Domestic consumption is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [8] - **Lead**: The profit of secondary lead is recovering, and the restocking demand before the festival is approaching the end. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, oscillating between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The short - term macro - favorable factors have been exhausted, and nickel prices are expected to decline [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated. There are supply - side themes, but the market is still concerned about consumption. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, the fuel oil market continued to rise, driven by geopolitical news. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts may push up prices, but in the medium term, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to be loose [22] - **Asphalt**: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The 10 - month production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The inventory level decreased. The supply - demand balance pattern continues, and there is support below [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The refinery's self - use of LPG increased, and the import was affected by typhoons. The demand increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [24] - **Urea**: The urea futures price rose yesterday. Agricultural sales improved slightly, but supply still exceeded demand, and the inventory continued to accumulate [25] - **Methanol**: The main methanol contract stopped falling and stabilized. The port inventory decreased, and the pre - festival restocking demand provided support, but high - inventory expectations limited the upside [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price continued to rebound, driven by the rise in oil prices. The weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the port inventory declined, but the high - import expectation and poor downstream profits were negative factors [27] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The market supply is abundant, and the downstream purchases on demand, with poor trading atmosphere [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene supply is increasing, and the market trading improved slightly. The polyethylene inventory accumulated, and the price was under pressure. The polypropylene supply is still loose, and the spot market lacks strong support [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is large. Caustic soda is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the futures price may oscillate [30] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectation of PX weakened, and the valuation declined. The PTA profit is still poor, and the downstream has restocking expectations before the festival [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to fall, and the new - device production impact was digested. The short - term oil price provides upward momentum, but the expectation is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The short - fiber inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The bottle chip was affected by the typhoon, and the long - term over - capacity is a pressure [33] - **Glass**: The glass futures price rose significantly due to industry meetings and price - increase plans. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but it may return to a weak state if capacity reduction doesn't materialize [34] - **Soda Ash**: It followed the rise of glass. The long - term supply is in excess, and it's advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [36] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market should be observed. The short - term negative factors may end, and there is a long - term cautious bullish view [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The mid - term soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. The supply of palm oil has a driving force in the fourth - quarter. Protective call strategies can be considered to hedge risks [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed - related futures prices are still under short - term pressure. The oil - meal ratio may be boosted in autumn and winter [39] - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price rebounded from a low level. Attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans [40] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day due to new - grain supply and weak downstream demand [41] - **Live Pig**: The live - pig futures price is bearish. Attention should be paid to the re - entry of secondary fattening and the government's support policy [42] - **Egg**: The egg futures adjusted weakly. The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term contracts can be considered for long positions [43] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillated. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the demand support is limited. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines after the breakdown [44] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar production expectation for the next season is relatively good [45] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillated downward. The expected high inventory in the new season is a negative factor [46] - **Timber**: The futures price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand in the peak season is weak, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [47] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory is high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or trade in a range [48] Others - **Stock Index**: The A - share market may oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It's advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Tech Index [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury - bond futures prices fell, and the yield curve may steepen. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF operations [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - Steel products have an overall weak domestic demand, with exports remaining high, and the market is expected to be mainly range-bound [2] - Iron ore is expected to be mainly in high-level oscillation [3] - Coke prices are relatively firm with a slight premium on the futures market [4] - Coking coal prices are relatively firm with a premium on the futures market [5] - Manganese silicon is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti-involution" background [6] - Ferrosilicon is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti-involution" background [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread: Surface demand has recovered, production has continued to decline, and inventory has gradually decreased [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand remains resilient, production stays high, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: Ironwater production remains high, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is mainly range-bound [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments have declined from the high level, and domestic arrivals have rebounded. There is no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation [3] - Demand: Domestic terminal demand is weak, but high ironwater production supports short-term demand. Steel mills have increased imported ore inventory and still have pre-holiday replenishment needs [3] - Market: With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policies to be followed up, speculative sentiment has cooled. It is expected to be mainly high-level oscillation [3] Coke - Production: Coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Inventory: Overall inventory has increased [4] - Market: Carbon element supply is abundant, and high ironwater production supports prices. The futures market has a slight premium [4] Coking Coal - Production: Coal mine production has slightly increased, and short-term production suspension has basically recovered [5] - Inventory: Total inventory has increased, and production-end inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Market: Carbon element supply is abundant, and high ironwater production supports prices. The futures market has a premium [5] Manganese Silicon - Production: Weekly production has continued to increase, and inventory has not increased [6] - Market: Ironwater production has increased, and demand is good. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - Production: Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has slightly decreased [7] - Market: Ironwater production has increased, and demand is acceptable. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polyolefins, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, and Glass are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Pure Benzene is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Ethylene Glycol is rated ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Caustic Soda is rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Soda Ash is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Report's Core View - In the chemical industry, different products present diverse market conditions. Some products have positive short - term trends but face long - term supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as weather, downstream demand, and production capacity changes [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose slightly. Supply is increasing, but lower prices led to better low - price sales. Polyolefins futures also rose slightly. Polyethylene has inventory pressure, and polypropylene's supply is still ample despite some improvement in the packaging sector [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded slightly. Its weekly production decreased, and port inventory declined, but high import expectations and poor downstream profits weakened the outlook. Styrene futures rose slightly but remained below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and weak demand [3]. Polyester - PX's strong supply - demand expectations weakened, but an oil price rebound drove up PX and PTA prices. PTA's profitability is poor. Ethylene glycol prices fell, with weak expectations. Short - fiber new capacity is limited, and demand is improving. Bottle - chip production was affected by typhoons, but long - term over - capacity is a concern [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol stopped falling. Port unloading was slow, and MTO plant operations increased, leading to port de - stocking. However, high port inventory limited price increases. Urea prices rose, but supply still exceeded demand, and the export window is closing [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC's supply - demand is loose, with high inventory. It may show a weak and volatile trend. Caustic soda has a weak current situation but strong future expectations, and the 2510 - 2601 spread may widen [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose with glass. Soda ash production is expected to increase, and long - term supply is excessive. Glass prices rose due to industry meetings and planned price hikes. In the short - term, it may be strong, but long - term trends depend on capacity reduction [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No. 1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ななな [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including beans, corn, pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term and long - term investment outlooks based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean No. 1 - Domestic soybean prices rebounded from a low level with large - scale position reduction, and new - season soybean quotes are weak. The gap between domestic and imported soybeans widened, and China is accelerating the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply gap in Q1 next year may disappear, and the US soybean market may be pressured [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The decline of soybean meal futures narrowed. Affected by Argentine policies, it remains weak. Import volume should be continuously monitored. The domestic oil mill operation rate is high, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term market is bearish, and a long - term cautious bullish view is held [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - After Argentina lifted export taxes, China is speeding up soybean purchases. The supply gap in Q1 next year may disappear. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. The US soybean market may be pressured, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure. In the medium term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil - meal ratio is rising. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to Argentine policies, low protein price difference, and seasonal demand decline. Australian rapeseed will improve domestic supply. The rapeseed oil - meal ratio is expected to rise, and the rapeseed futures price will be under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated strongly. The market is optimistic about the new - season output, but the opening price has been falling. With the increase in new - grain supply, downstream demand is weak, and the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded with position reduction at a low level, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the re - entry of secondary fattening and government policies. There is a plan to reduce production capacity by 1 million heads before the end of January next year. The current futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg futures adjusted weakly, and the spot price was stable. The spot price may not rise significantly before the holidays and will be weak after the holidays. The industry needs to reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens will decrease by the end of the year. A long position in the far - month contract for H1 next year can be considered [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summaries by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. New cotton sales may be favorable at the beginning of the new cotton listing period due to low old - crop inventory [2] - Xinjiang machine - picked cotton acquisition is expected to gradually start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The probability of a high - yield cotton crop in Xinjiang is large, but the specific yield estimate ranges from 720 to 770 tons [2] - Ginners are cautious about new cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a situation of grabbing cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the high yield [2] - At the beginning of the new cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. The weak demand in the peak season and poor spinning profits drag down the cotton price [2] - Positive signals have been released in Sino - US trade negotiations, but details need further follow - up. After Zhengzhou cotton broke through the support level, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increase in the sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss of sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. After July, the rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be relatively good [3] - Typhoon Koinu will bring wind and rain to Guangxi, with expected limited impact. Follow - up conditions need to be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated strongly. In the spot market, the demand for cold - storage apples increased due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high, with the pre - harvest order price remaining high [4] - Based on the bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side [4] - Apple farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples left for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new quarter may be higher than market expectations [4] - Although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage apple inventory in the new quarter will be higher than expected. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish operation strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly, and the sentiment in the futures market improved. The domestic spot price of natural rubber was stable, the spot price of synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market was stable [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period, and Super Typhoon Koinu passed through production areas such as China and Vietnam. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, and some plants were shut down for maintenance or operating at low loads [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly, tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tire products increased [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 46.12 tons, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing and the general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.26 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to decline to 2.31 tons [5] - Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, the supply of synthetic rubber decreases and inventory also decreases, and cost - driven factors strengthen. As the National Day holiday approaches, risk preference is cautious. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [5] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the price of broad - leaved pulp was also stable [6] - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 211.2 tons, a 5 - ton increase from the previous period, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the inventory was still at a high level year - on - year [6] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [6] - China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 265.3 tons, a 22.7 - ton month - on - month decrease. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the pulp demand is still average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt a range - trading strategy [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream quotation was stable [7] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In September, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased [7] - The external quotation is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level [7] - Although the demand has entered the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average shipment volume during the off - season remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth [7] - The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and the short - term price increase momentum is insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with expected price drops for Brent and SC crude. However, geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still intensify around the National Day holiday, so the strategy of combining high-level short positions with call options can be maintained [1]. - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will mainly follow the weakening cost side due to the unchanged medium-term bearish trend in crude oil. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure, while high-sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger and is susceptible to geopolitical news [2]. - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with the BU contract having support below due to factors such as increased pre-holiday demand in the north, expected production increases, and inventory declines [2]. - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal improvements in supply and demand and expected better import costs [3]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC11 contract rising 1.94% during the day. Iraqi Kurdish oil exports remain suspended, and there are discussions about a possible Russian diesel export ban. Negotiations between three European countries and Iran to avoid UN sanctions on September 27 have no clear progress [1]. - The medium-term bearish trend continues, with the expected average price of Brent crude dropping from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the SC average price falling from 500 yuan per barrel to around 465 yuan per barrel [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors affect supply expectations, causing a rebound in crude oil-related products. However, the unilateral trend of fuel oil will follow the weakening cost side [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces low加注 demand, increased domestic quotas, and overseas refinery RFCC accidents, intensifying supply pressure. High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, but Russian refinery attacks may support supply expectations and make it relatively stronger [2]. Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly compared to the previous period. The north has pre-holiday construction demand, while the south is affected by typhoon weather. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [2]. - The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year-on-year increase but limited month-on-month growth. Factory inventories remain stable, and social inventories decreased by 57,000 tons, with the overall inventory level decreasing [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil rebounded, and LPG fluctuated. Refinery self-use of LPG increased, squeezing external supply, leading to a decline in commercial volume compared to last week [3]. - Typhoon weather in the South China region affects imports, while the import volume in East China increased but remains at a low level. Combustion demand is stable, and overall consumption increased slightly [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to strengthen. Powell pointed out that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible policy adjustment based on data and economic outlook. Geopolitical tensions are hard to resolve, and Trump said the US is ready to impose tariffs if Russia refuses to reach an agreement. The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term volatility may intensify [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information Fed Officials' Statements - Powell: Policy rate is slightly restrictive, allowing better response to potential economic progress; tariff impact is a one - time transmission; decisions are "never based on political factors". His remarks may open the door for further rate cuts [2] - Goolsbee: Currently not considering a 50 - basis - point rate cut; the Fed's interest rate may eventually stabilize around 3% [2] - Bowman: Predicts three rate cuts in 2025 [2] - Bostic: Considers the current real neutral rate to be 1.25%; may support setting the inflation target range at 1.75% - 2.25% in the future [2] Trump's Statements - If Russia refuses to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs; Ukraine can retake all lost territory with EU support; NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace; his relationship with Putin "unfortunately means nothing" [2] - Trump cancelled a meeting with two top - level Democrats in Congress on Tuesday to resolve issues hindering a funding agreement to avoid a federal government shutdown [2] OECD Forecast - Predicts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecast) [2]

Report Summary Core Information - The report provides the average prices, price changes, and spot premiums/discounts of various non - ferrous metals on September 24, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. Metal - Specific Details Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80045, up 35; SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 15, down 5 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20680, unchanged; SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is 0, up 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2950, down 10; Australian alumina FOB average price is 323 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16950, down 25; SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 90, up 5. Recycled refined lead average price is 16875, down 25; the price difference between refined and scrap lead is 75, unchanged [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 21820, down 60; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 60, down 5 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 271400, up 700; SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 20, down 60. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 259400, up 700, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.58% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 121600, up 500; 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract is 300, unchanged. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123650, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract is 2350, unchanged [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - passed 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 (with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal) is 10000, unchanged; 553 silicon spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1015, down 75. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9950, polysilicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polysilicon material average price is 52.5 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 850, down 620. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71600, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250, unchanged [1]. Analyst Information - Xiao Jing, the chief analyst, focuses on copper and tin, with a qualification number of F3047773 and an investment consulting number of Z001408 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, a senior analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with a qualification number of F3062795 and an investment consulting number of Z001531 [1]. - Wu Jiang, a senior analyst, is involved in nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with a qualification number of F3085524 and an investment consulting number of Z001639 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, a mid - level analyst, focuses on aluminum and zinc, with a qualification number of F03111330 and an investment consulting number of Z001890 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, a mid - level analyst, studies industrial silicon, with a qualification number of F03099436 and an investment consulting number of Z002102 [1].