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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost fluctuations. PX is expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate, and PR is expected to oscillate. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors, and the industry's fundamentals are moving towards weakness [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 16, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.21% and 0.28% respectively; the spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and p - xylene (PX) also declined, with xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea dropping by 1.74% [1]. - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 0.21%, while the near - month contract settlement price decreased by 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price rose by 0.08%, and the CCFEI PTA outer - disk price index dropped by 2.05%. The near - far month spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton [1]. - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 0.42%, and the near - month contract closing price increased by 1.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread increased by 8.86%. The basis decreased by 28 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 0.27%, and the near - month contract closing price increased by 0.07%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets remained unchanged, and the basis in both markets decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester products such as polyester DTY and POY remained unchanged, while the price indices of polyester FDY68D, FDY150D, short - fiber, and polyester chips decreased, with polyester FDY68D and FDY150D dropping by 0.73% [2]. Production and Sales Information - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on July 16, 2025. The sales rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips increased by 6%, 3%, and 31% respectively [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - **International Crude Oil**: Macro - risks have declined, but the supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, with inventory accumulation in both crude oil and refined oil, and the demand for gasoline during the summer travel season is fluctuating, putting pressure on oil prices [2]. - **PX**: The current inventory of PX is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. However, the supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA processing fee has fallen below 200 yuan/ton. Although there are unplanned device maintenance, new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult to boost prices. The polyester factory's actual maintenance in July has led to a significant decline in operating rates compared to June [2]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market lacks new major news, and the trading atmosphere is not strong. The spot basis has slightly increased recently. The polyester bottle - chip market is stable, with supply at a low level and downstream buying enthusiasm being average [2]. Trading Strategies - On July 16, 2025, the TA2509 contract of PTA closed at 4,706 yuan/ton (- 0.04%), with a trading volume of 559,100 lots; the PX2509 contract of PX closed at 6,716 yuan/ton (0%), with a trading volume of 144,100 lots; the 2509 contract of PR closed at 5,886 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), with a trading volume of 30,600 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to oscillate, with PX, PTA, and PR all in an oscillatory state [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has a supply - demand stalemate with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term prices are expected to be range - bound [1] - The zinc market has increasing supplies of both zinc ore and zinc ingots, while demand is in the off - season with an emerging inventory build - up trend. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Consider shorting on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.21% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,978/ton, down 1.15% [1] News and Policies - In 2024, the GCC launched an anti - dumping investigation on lead - acid batteries from China or Malaysia. Different tariff ranges will be imposed on Chinese or Chinese - funded lead - acid battery enterprises [1] Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a minor decline in production due to equipment maintenance [1] - In the secondary lead sector, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost issues, with overall low production [1] - The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing may improve, reducing the drag on lead prices [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% from the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 0.18% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,699.50/ton, down 0.07% [1] News and Policies - Vedanta's Q2 2025 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production to 322,000 tons. Zinc India's production increased by 19% to 265,000 tons, and Zinc International's production increased by 50% to 57,000 tons [1] Fundamentals - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production limit due to raw material shortages is weakening, and production is expected to increase [1] - Demand is in the off - season. Although zinc prices dropped and downstream buying increased zinc inventories, overall purchasing remains limited [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The prices of silicon-based products are showing a firm trend. For industrial silicon, supply may be less than expected while demand from the polysilicon sector may increase, and short - term prices are expected to continue to be strong with potential for greater fluctuations. For polysilicon, the market is driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 0.56% to 8,950 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract closing price decreased by 1.14% to 8,685 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price increased by 1.12% to 42,945 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - On July 14, 2025, Yichang Henglong Chemical Co., Ltd.'s project for the reconstruction of water - free dyeing dyes and silicone oil was approved for filing, with planned production capacities of 3000 tons/year of water - free dyeing dyes and 1200 tons/year of silicone oil [1]. - An Anhui - based photovoltaic glass kiln production line with a designed capacity of 750 tons/day entered cold repair, leading to a decrease in supply and an improvement in downstream procurement sentiment [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon supply: Northern large - scale factories have production cuts with no restart news, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and gradually increasing enterprise operations, but the restart speed is slow, resulting in a possible supply reduction [1]. - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts with some planned restarts in July, bringing some demand increase; the silicone industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but weak demand, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises is based on needs [1]. - Polysilicon supply: Enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak overall, with increased inventory of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the trading atmosphere has improved, the terminal market remains weak due to over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: In the short - term, prices are expected to continue to be strong with greater fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there will be selling pressure after the market rebounds [1]. - Polysilicon: The price may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. Existing long positions can consider taking profits, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual operations of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reforms [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected price range for ethylene glycol (MEG) is 4,250 - 4,450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - In the short - term, MEG prices are affected by supply - demand dynamics and external factors. The supply - demand structure is weakening, but the Red Sea shipping risk impacts imports and supports prices [6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Disk and Spot Market Conditions) - **Disk Trends**: The price of MEG futures oscillated upwards. The trading volume for the week was 754,900 lots, and the open interest was 281,400 lots, a decrease of 82,000 lots compared to the previous period. From July 8th to July 15th, the closing price rose by 55 yuan/ton (1.29%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.52%) [8][10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end domestic spot price was 4,408 yuan/ton on July 11th, and the low - end was 4,332 yuan/ton on July 8th. The average basis this week was 75.0 yuan/ton, down from 81.6 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign prices of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 90 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit) - **Device Operation**: The overall MEG operating rate changed little, with an operating rate of 61.41% from July 9th - 15th, down from 62.33% in the previous period. The oil - based operating rate was 63.05%, coal - based was 58.87%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. This week, some devices restarted, and some adjusted their loads. For example, Far Eastern Union planned to switch from MEG to ethylene oxide, reducing MEG production [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Coal - based production profit remained at a high level this year. The MTO production profit was - 1,716.23 yuan/ton (previous: - 1,828.84 yuan/ton), coal - based was 639.82 yuan/ton (previous: 617.17 yuan/ton), and ethylene - based was - 121.65 US dollars/ton (previous: - 135.35 US dollars/ton) [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10th, the MEG port inventory was 494,800 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of - 10.30%. Polyester production cuts affected port pick - up volumes [37][38]. 3.3 基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) - **Cost**: Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate, with strong bottom support but weakening demand and ongoing trade issues. Cost decline was negative for downstream product prices [6]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory's average weekly load was 87.04%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 60.17%. The prices of polyester products generally declined. The market for polyester downstream products was weak, with new orders scarce, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate continued to decline. From July 8th - 14th, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventories increased, with POY, FDY, and DTY average inventory days at 24.20 days, 24.70 days, and 29.40 days respectively as of July 10th [48][53][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX and PTA both showed weak consolidation this week. For PX, after the impact of the emergency was digested, the support from the cost side weakened, and with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the market sentiment was bearish. For PTA, after the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not sustain, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorated, with processing fees and spot basis dropping [9]. - **Market Forecast**: Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. PX supply will remain relatively stable with minor changes, and PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton. PTA supply will face pressure from new capacity, and it will likely trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views 3.1.1 Weekly Summary - **PX**: After the shock of the emergency, the cost support from crude oil weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans this month and social inventories are at a historical low, with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the overall market sentiment is bearish [9]. - **PTA**: After the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not continue to drive the market. Polyester production cuts have led to a decline in operating rates, and new capacity on the supply side has put pressure on the supply - demand balance. Processing fees have fallen below 200 yuan/ton, and the spot basis has dropped rapidly [9]. 3.1.2 Market Forecast - **Crude Oil**: With obvious bottom support and weakening upper - end demand and continuous trade issues, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate [10]. - **PX**: Chinese PX supply is relatively stable, with some minor adjustments in maintenance schedules. Asian PX supply will also remain generally stable. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **PTA**: Newly commissioned capacity in East China will bring pressure to the supply side. PTA is expected to trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyester**: Production cuts have been fully implemented, and there are no new cuts in the short term. The operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [10]. - **Weaving**: In the off - season, there is a lack of new orders, and the market shows no improvement [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.2 Price Situation 3.2.1 PX - **Futures**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with the closing price of the main contract on July 11 at 6,694 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.33%) from July 4, and the settlement price at 6,720 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) [13][15]. - **Spot**: After a narrow - range increase, prices turned down. From July 7 - 11, the average basis of the main contract was 56 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price was 6,772 yuan/ton, down 128.2 yuan/ton (- 1.86%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.2.2 PTA - **Futures**: With weakening demand, prices fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract on July 11 was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from July 4, and the settlement price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.59%) [20][22]. - **Spot**: Trading was mainly between traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 2 - 3 million tons. From July 6 - 12, the average basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, the average CIF price in the Chinese market was 607 US dollars/ton, down 23.8 US dollars/ton (- 3.92%) from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,761.6 yuan/ton, down 170.4 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) [23][25]. 3.3 Device Operation Conditions 3.3.1 PX Devices - **Domestic Changes**: Many domestic PX devices have different operating loads, such as Ningbo Daxie operating at 60% capacity, and some devices in Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical operating at 85 - 90% capacity [30]. - **Asian Other Regions**: Some devices in Asian other regions have restarted or adjusted their operating rates, such as Pertamina in Indonesia restarting from a shutdown and some Japanese and Korean devices having maintenance or unexpected shutdowns [32][33]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate remained relatively stable, with 83.00% from July 1 - 7 and 83.13% from July 8 - 14 [34]. 3.3.2 PTA Devices - **Device Changes**: Some PTA devices such as Ningbo Taihua and Hainan Yisheng are under maintenance, and a new 3.2 - million - ton device in East China plans to put 1.6 - million - ton capacity into operation recently and another 1.6 - million - ton capacity in August [37]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate increased by 1.22% due to the resumption of some devices [38]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Investors are concerned about the results of the tariff negotiations between the US and key trading partners. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 14 was 66.98 US dollars/barrel, down 0.95 US dollars/barrel from July 7, and Brent crude oil's was 69.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.37 US dollars/barrel. The weekly average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 0.77 US dollars/barrel and 1.13 US dollars/barrel respectively compared to last week [43][45][47]. - **Naphtha**: Demand in Asia, especially in China, is strong, with both supply and demand sides being robust. The average weekly price of CFR Japan naphtha is 591.40 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit is 27.23 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX**: After the impact of oil prices weakened, PX prices remained stagnant. The average weekly price of CFR China Main Port was 846.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.28% from the previous week, and the average weekly price of FOB South Korea was 822.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.27% [55]. 3.4.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: Although there were unexpected situations with overseas devices, the impact on processing fees was limited. The weekly average of PXN was 253.79 yuan/ton, down 7.51% from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 96.50 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Margin**: Profits have been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. The average spot processing fee from July 8 - 14 was 177.66 yuan/ton, compared with 298.31 yuan/ton last week [59][61]. - **Inventory**: PTA has entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of July 11, the social inventory was 4.397 million tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.95%. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.09 days, and polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.05 days [66][68]. 3.4.3 Demand - **Polyester Product Prices**: The prices of polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have declined. The average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,969.00 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous reporting period [74]. - **Market Demand**: The weakness of the market demand side is becoming more prominent. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from July 8 - 14 was estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventory has increased, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate has continued to decline [75][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of corn futures is under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is turning pessimistic. The CS2509 contract of corn starch is expected to trade in the range of 2550 - 2750, following the trend of corn [18][98][156]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review CBOT Corn - As of July 14, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 418.5 cents per bushel, up 14.75 cents per bushel week-on-week. As of July 8, the net long position of managed funds was -203,861 contracts, an increase of 2,602 contracts week-on-week [6]. Domestic Corn Futures - As of July 14, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2,302 yuan per ton, down 1.03% week-on-week. The contract's open interest was 1,654,874 contracts, up 5.86% week-on-week. Negative factors include the sporadic listing of southern spring corn, large - scale auctions of imported corn, and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use. Positive factors are low imports, nearly exhausted farmers' remaining grain, and the bottom - support provided by the minimum purchase price of wheat [13]. - As of July 14, the number of corn registered warrants was 194,126 contracts, still significantly higher than in previous years. The average daily trading volume last week was 660,800 contracts [14]. - The term structure of corn futures contracts shows a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with last week, futures prices have generally declined, with the C09 contract showing a significant decline. The C09 - C11 spread has continued to weaken, reaching 30 yuan per ton as of July 14, a decrease of 13 yuan per ton week-on-week [18]. - As of July 14, the national average spot price of corn was 2,417.45 yuan per ton, down 0.62% week-on-week. The basis was 115.45 yuan per ton, up 8.9 yuan per ton week-on-week [23]. Corn Starch - As of July 14, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2,647 yuan per ton, down 1.23% week-on-week. The open interest was 331,542 contracts, up 18.91% week-on-week [104]. - The number of corn starch registered warrants decreased to 18,899 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 4,023 contracts. The average daily trading volume last week was 139,800 contracts, up 6.08% week-on-week [107]. - As of July 14, the average price of Grade - 1 national standard corn starch was 2,874 yuan per ton, down 0.66% week-on-week. The basis was 227 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan per ton week-on-week [111]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts have declined compared with last week, with the 09 contract showing a larger decline, presenting a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. As of July 14, the spread between the corn starch and corn futures 09 contract was 345 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton from last week [117]. Part II: Fundamental Analysis Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - USDA's July 2025/26 balance sheet reduced the beginning inventory by 2 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyi.com's July balance sheet increased the 2025 corn consumption by 2 million tons, with no changes to other items [29][30]. US Corn Growth - As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year. The silking rate was 34%, up from 18% the previous week, and the dough stage rate was 7%, up from 3% the previous week [32]. Corn Imports - Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.9%. Cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a 93.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. In April, imports of substitute crops such as wheat, barley, and sorghum were 2.09 million tons, a 52.1% year-on-year decrease. Cumulative imports in 2025 were 6 million tons, a 60.54% year-on-year decrease [37]. Corn Auction - Since September last year, the net purchase volume of imported corn auctions has been 1.66 million tons [42]. Corn Inventory - Port corn inventories are seasonally decreasing. As of July 4, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.596 million tons, down 4.70% from June 27. The domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 886,000 tons, down 14.89%, and the foreign trade inventory was 13,000 tons, up 333.33% [45]. - The corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises increased slightly to 4.436 million tons as of July 11, 2025, up 1.88% from July 4. The available days of corn inventory for feed enterprises decreased slightly to 31.58 days, down 1.19% from July 4 [53]. Corn Consumption - The corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises decreased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, it was 1.1578 million tons, down 1.57% from July 4 [59]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.7 million tons, a 0.6% month-on-month increase and a 6.9% year-on-year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 39.4%, a 3.1 - percentage - point year-on-year increase [67]. Pig Market - In June, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month, but the month - on - month growth rate narrowed. The sales volume of piglet and sow feed decreased year - on - year [68]. - The hog price fluctuated, and the profit from pig farming was limited. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19 yuan per kilogram. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 160 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 3 yuan per head [77]. - The hog - to - corn ratio was weakly stable. As of July 14, 2025, the Steel Union hog - to - corn ratio was 6.08, down 0.33% week-on-week [83]. Wheat - Corn Substitution - The wheat price remained stable, and the decline in the corn price widened the wheat - corn price spread, but it was still at a low level. The substitution ratio of wheat for feed use was relatively high [85]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 14, 2025, the spread in Heilongjiang Suihua was 490 yuan per ton, up 11.36% week-on-week, and the spread in Shandong Weifang was 450 yuan per ton, down 2.17% week-on-week [123]. - The operating rate and production of corn starch enterprises decreased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, the operating rate was 50.14%, down 1.06 percentage points from July 4, and the production was 259,400 tons, down 2.08% from July 4 [129]. - The losses of corn starch enterprises have increased. - The corn starch inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, the national inventory of major enterprises was 1.337 million tons, up 1.83% from July 4 [140]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 235,400 tons, down 9.77% from July 4 [146]. Part III: Future Outlook International Market - CBOT corn futures were stable. The expected high yield in the US restrained bottom - fishing buying and short - covering operations. In the second week of July 2025, Brazil shipped 338,400 tons of corn in 9 working days, a 75.66% decrease in the average daily shipping volume compared to July last year. As of the week ending July 10, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,287,159 tons [96]. Domestic Market - This week, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for corn growth, while areas such as Xinjiang, North China, and Huanghuai are experiencing high temperatures and low rainfall, which is not conducive to corn growth. In the next 10 days, some areas in Northeast China may experience short - term waterlogging, and areas such as Shaanxi, Hebei, and Huanghuai may face drought [97]. - Corn futures prices are under downward pressure. Positive factors include the minimum purchase price of wheat in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, nearly exhausted farmers' remaining grain, and continued growth in feed sales in June. Negative factors are the increasing listing of spring corn in Hubei, the start of imported corn auctions, and the high substitution ratio of wheat for feed use [98]. - Corn starch futures prices are also under downward pressure, following the trend of corn. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2550 - 2750 [156].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Act may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices, but in the long - term, due to factors such as the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, economic slowdown, high inflation, and concerns about the US dollar's credit, the anti - inflation property of precious metals will be prominent, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise [5] - The Act's passage has led to an increase in the US debt ceiling, and the deficit may further expand, which also affects the US bond yields and the Fed's monetary policy [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tariffs & Trade Negotiations - The announcement of more tariffs by Trump has increased risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the market has not reacted strongly to the new US tariffs in August as the policies are still under negotiation, with many uncertainties [3] Economic Data - The overall impact of US economic data on precious metals is small. The US CPI data in June was in line with or slightly deviated from expectations, with the overall CPI and core CPI showing certain trends [3] Geopolitical Situation - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the possible breakdown of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation, the deadline for the Iran nuclear deal, and Trump's planned statement on Russia, support the precious metals market [3][4] "Big and Beautiful" Act and Debt - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act has pushed up the US debt ceiling, and the federal government's fiscal deficit is expected to increase by about $4.1 trillion in the next ten years, and may expand to $5.4 trillion if some tax - cut measures are extended [8] Federal Reserve's Monetary Situation - As of July 9, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse - repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury's cash account decreased. The Treasury plans to rebuild its cash reserve in a more moderate way [11] Inflation Expectations - In June, consumers' one - year inflation expectations decreased to 3%, while three - year and five - year inflation expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [17] US Treasury Yields - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may push up the ten - year US Treasury yield by 50 - 80 basis points, and the 10 - year term premium may rise above 1% [20] Financial Pressure Index - As of July 4, the US OFR financial pressure index increased compared to the previous week, with changes in its sub - indicators [29] Commercial Bank Loans - As of July 2, the weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, with different trends in various types of loans [32] Retail Sales - As of July 8, the US Redbook commercial retail sales weekly annual rate increased, indicating strong consumer spending [34] Mortgage Applications - As of July 9, the US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates increased, and the MBA mortgage application activity index rose by 9.4% [37] Unemployment Data - As of the week ending July 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased to a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims increased to the highest level since the end of 2021 [40] International Bond Yield Differences - The differences in long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany (Japan) have changed, with the 10 - year yield difference between the US and Germany (Japan) showing an upward (downward) trend [43] Exchange Rates - The US dollar is strongly supported by economic data. The euro and the pound have depreciated against the US dollar due to factors such as trade tensions and weak economic performance [47] Volatility Index - The volatility of the US S&P 500 and the gold ETF index has increased [48] Gold Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased month - on - month. The total gold inventory of COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the gold basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [53][56][61] Silver Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased month - on - month. The total silver inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has increased. The domestic silver futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the silver basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [72][75][80] Precious Metal Price Ratios - The gold - to - silver ratio has been repaired recently. In the short - term, it may remain stable, but in the long - term, it may have an upward driving force. The gold - to - oil ratio and the gold - to - copper ratio are above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and short - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [89][92]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].

| | | | 碳 锌 8 详20250716:国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-15 | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-09 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 66860.00 | 66200.00 | 64700.00 | 660.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 66660.00 | 66720.00 | 64680.00 | -60.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 66100.00 | 66260.00 | 64400.00 | -160.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 66100.00 | 66260.00 | 64160.00 | -160.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 66660.00 | 66480.00 | 64400.00 | 180.00 | | | 砖酸锂期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交堂(手) | ...