Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, with supply and demand both weak and no obvious contradictions, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will move in a range in the short term [1]. - For the zinc market, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak in a range in the short term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,005 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.91% [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,732.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.08, down 0.74% [1]. 3.2 Inventory and Position - **Lead**: LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,768 tons, up 6.60%; the futures active contract trading volume was 33,602 hands, up 6.48%; the futures active contract open interest was 52,667 hands, up 0.43%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.64, up 6.03% [1]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,184 tons, up 21.95%; the futures active contract trading volume was 119,038 hands, down 12.56%; the futures active contract open interest was 84,304 hands, down 10.48%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.41, down 2.32% [1]. 3.3 Industry News - A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a 15 - day regular maintenance in August, expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production, and plans to add 20,000 tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year [1]. - On July 14, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 32.78 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 144,891 hands, a decrease of 1,790 hands; the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 5.61 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 194,167 hands, an increase of 1,614 hands [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. Refineries are facing cost issues and reduced production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The impact of raw material shortages on production is weakening, and production is expected to increase. Although downstream purchasing increased slightly when zinc prices fell, overall demand remains weak [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December has decreased due to the US June consumer - end inflation CPI rebound. However, due to the slower - than - expected debt issuance rhythm of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On July 16, 2025, the closing price was 776.13 yuan/gram, with a change of - 1.33 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 38,972.00, and the open interest was 224,826.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,225.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume was - 357,880.00, and the open interest was 327,567.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,330.50 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 177,332.00, and the open interest was - 12,839.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 37.99 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 177.00, and the open interest was 132,552.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,345.10 dollars/ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding was 947.66 tons [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.25 dollars/ounce, and the US iShare Silver ETF holding was 14,868.74 tons [1]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economy**: The US June core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The June consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2.7%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December. The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to $50 billion and $85 billion by the end of July and September respectively [1]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The Eurozone central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with the deposit mechanism rate dropping to 2%. The Eurozone and German (French) June manufacturing PMI was 49.4/49 (47.8), continuing to recover. The Eurozone (German) June consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2% (2%), in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Economy**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May, and continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK May consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.4% (3.5%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The June S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing (services) PMI was 47.7 (51.3), higher than expectations and the previous value. Due to the June GDP monthly rate being - 0.1%, lower than expectations but higher than the previous value, the expectation of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August has increased, and it may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japanese Economy**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, with the benchmark interest rate rising to 0.5%. It may start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) May (June) consumer price index core (CPI) annual rate was 3.7% (3.1%), higher (lower) than expectations and the previous value. There is still an expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by the end of 2025 [1]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,150 - 3,250 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 760 and the resistance level is around 800 - 850; for London silver, the support level is around 35 - 37 and the resistance level is around 40 - 43; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,600 - 9,000 and the resistance level is around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround still lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 15, UR01 closed at 1,707 yuan/ton (-1.39% compared to July 14), UR05 at 1,723 yuan/ton (-0.86%), UR09 at 1,731 yuan/ton (-1.87%), and Shandong at 1,810 yuan/ton (-0.55%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 15, prices in Shanxi were 1,680 yuan/ton (-2.33%), Henan 1,830 yuan/ton (-0.54%), Hebei 1,780 yuan/ton (-0.56%), Northeast 1,810 yuan/ton (-3.72%), and Jiangsu 1,820 yuan/ton (-1.09%). [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Shandong spot - UR basis was 87 yuan/ton on July 15, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to July 14. [1] - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton on July 15, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to July 14. [1] 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Cost**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (0.68%) to 2,950 yuan/ton, and in Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.19%) to 2,550 yuan/ton. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,000 yuan/ton and 5,200 yuan/ton respectively. [1] 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1,757 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,757 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,725 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,731 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,738 yuan/ton, and the position was 201,365 lots. [1]

| 甲醇日评20250716: 估值偏高，驱动向下 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 変化值 | 2025/7/15 | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/14 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2455.00 | 元/吨 | 2463.00 | -0.32% | -8.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | -0.42% | 2378.00 | 2388.00 | -10.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | -10.00 | -0.42% | 2386.00 | 2396.00 | 元/吨 | | | | | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 0.00% | 太せ | 2385.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2255.00 | 2255.00 | 0.00% | 0.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 厂东 | 2395.00 | 2395.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 期 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Overseas copper mines face disruptions in production or transportation. However, due to the Trump administration's substantial tariff hikes on multiple countries and the onset of the traditional off - season for domestic consumption, the global electrolytic copper inventory is accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold short positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 310 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, up 2,530 lots; the open interest was 169,930 lots, down 2,274 lots; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper inventory was 50,133 tons, up 15,754 tons, and the average price was 77,995 yuan, down 460 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,643.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 110,475 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 62.07 dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 124.71 dollars. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio on July 15 was 8.0977, down 0.031 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.5165 dollars, down 0.07 dollars; the total inventory was 238,264 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 500 billion and 50 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively through increasing the weekly benchmark bond auction size. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than expected, and the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [3]. Upstream Situation - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative but has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, decreased) compared to last week. High - quality scrap copper exports are restricted, and the spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper more economical, opening the scrap copper import window. Some overseas copper mines and smelters have production disruptions, while some domestic projects are in progress or planned to be put into production [3]. Downstream Situation - The daily processing fee of copper rods for power and cable in East China has decreased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of some copper product industries has changed, with some expected to decline and some to increase. Domestic electrolytic copper holders have no inventory pressure and are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers mainly make purchases for immediate needs or long - term contracts [3]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold short positions and pay attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 78,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 80,000 - 81,000 yuan for resistance; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 dollars for support and 9,800 - 10,000 dollars for resistance; COMEX copper at 5.0 - 6.2 dollars for support and 6.0 - 7.0 dollars for resistance [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate upward due to macro - prospects and supply - side reform [2]. - Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as domestic tire processing rates rise, providing short - term support for downstream demand, while inventory accumulates slightly [2]. - Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber (13,500 - 13,700 and 14,700 - 14,900) and butadiene rubber (10,700 - 10,900 and 12,000 - 12,200) [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures - On July 15, 2025, the closing price was 14,395, up 35 from the previous day; the trading volume was 369,788 lots, an increase of 79,174 lots; the open interest was 214,794 lots, up 2,879 lots; the registered warrant volume was 187,060, a decrease of 1,590 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was 30 on July 15, 2025, up 165 from the previous day [2]. - The monthly spreads of natural rubber (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - one to consecutive - three) showed different changes on July 15, 2025, with the near - month to consecutive - one down 265, consecutive - one to consecutive - two up 20, and consecutive - one to consecutive - three up 45 [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,535, down 90 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,885 lots, an increase of 26,899 lots; the open interest was 22,739 lots, a decrease of 1,690 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9,400, an increase of 200 [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was - 101.67 on July 15, 2025, up 40 from the previous day [2]. - The monthly spreads of synthetic rubber (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - one to consecutive - three) also had different changes on July 15, 2025, with the near - month to consecutive - one down 300, consecutive - one to consecutive - two up 35, and consecutive - one to consecutive - three up 25 [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be some precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam, less in Indonesia; in domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Yunnan and Guangxi, less in Hainan [2]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.75%, down 6.21% from the previous week; that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 77.19%, down 0.1% from the previous week [2]. - As of July 15, 2025, the daily after - tax profit of Chinese butyl - styrene rubber emulsion polymerization was 234.51 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of SBS solution polymerization was 266.64 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of butadiene rubber solution polymerization was 876.11 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. Inventory Side - As of July 11, 2025, the total weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 213,590 tons, an increase of 820 tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 414,900 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons; the bonded area inventory was 92,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,763 tons, an increase of 439 tons from the previous week [2]. Cost Side - As of July 15, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 3.8 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to a shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 15, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 9,375 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton from the previous day; as of July 9, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.80% from the previous week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.55%, up 2.51% from the previous week [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of passenger cars in May was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles; the sales volume of trucks in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles, indicating an increase in tire matching demand [2].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250716：供给端扰动不断，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/16 | 指标 单位 近期趋势 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,900.00 | 1.71% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 8,785.00 | 1.04% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 115.00 | 60.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 44.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 42,470.00 | 1.69% | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 基差 元/吨 | 1,530.00 8,900.00 | -705.00 1.71% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,900.00 | 1.14% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. PTA has new device commissioning expectations and weak demand in the off - season, and its processing fee has fallen below 200 yuan/ton. The polyester bottle - sheet market has sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On July 15, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.69% and 0.72% respectively. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and PX also declined, with the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea dropping by 3.17% [1] - **PTA Products**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA contracts decreased, and the spot price of domestic PTA dropped by 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - plate decreased by 0.49%, while the outer - plate increased by 1.60%. The near - far month spread was 14 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 21 yuan/ton [1] - **PX Products**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX contracts decreased, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN spread decreased slightly by 0.16%, while the PX - MX spread increased by 8.84%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Products**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR contracts decreased, and the market prices of polyester bottle - sheet in the East China and South China markets declined. The basis in the East China and South China markets increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream polyester products remained unchanged or decreased slightly, with the price index of polyester short - fiber dropping by 0.08% [2] Production and Sales Information - **Operating Rates**: On July 15, 2025, the operating rates of the PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - sheet factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged [1] - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips decreased on July 15, 2025, with the sales ratio of polyester staple fiber dropping by 33 percentage points and that of polyester chips dropping by 112 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important News - **International Crude Oil**: Market expectations for the US statement on sanctions against Russia drove up oil prices, but due to the time window for negotiations, the risk of short - term supply disruption of Russian oil was limited, and oil prices fell after giving up gains. PTA will commission new devices in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing a solid bottom support [2] - **PX**: PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. On July 15, the PX CFR China price was 838 US dollars/ton. Affected by the tariff issue, international oil prices fluctuated and declined, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. The domestic PX is still in the de - stocking cycle, and there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2] - **PTA**: The decline in crude oil prices weakens the cost support for PTA. Except for some large polyester manufacturers purchasing PTA spot, the overall atmosphere is average. Currently, the PTA processing fee has fallen below the 200 - yuan/ton range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected commissioning of new devices on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side [2] - **Polyester Bottle - Sheet**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - sheet in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle - sheet futures are running weakly, and the supply - side quotations of bottle - sheet are a mix of stability and decline. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle - sheet has continued to operate at a low level, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream end - users' procurement maintains the rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious [2] Trading Strategy - PTA oscillated lower, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4696 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) and the daily trading volume of 1.01 million lots. PX prices returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6688 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) and the daily trading volume of 214,600 lots. PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5870 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) and the daily trading volume of 40,900 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market of ethylene glycol is in a state of complex supply - demand relationship and price fluctuations. The price of ethylene glycol has experienced significant adjustments, with both domestic and foreign markets showing different trends. The downstream polyester industry's production and sales are uneven, and the cost support and demand outlook of ethylene glycol are also changing. The supply side is affected by factors such as equipment maintenance and geopolitical impacts, while the demand side is influenced by the purchasing intentions of downstream factories [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Information Price Information - **Domestic Market**: On July 16, 2025, the price of domestic ethylene glycol was 583.75 US dollars/ton, up 2.22% from the previous day; the price of ethylene oxide in the East China region was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of methanol was 2385 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia was 290 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The settlement price of the main contract of ethylene glycol was 4338 US dollars/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day [1]. - **Foreign Market**: The price of foreign - produced ethylene glycol was 116.11 US dollars/ton on July 14, 2025, and the price of ethylene glycol produced from ethylene in the foreign market was 116.6 US dollars/ton on the same day [1]. Market Transaction and Trend - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: The domestic ethylene glycol market has wide - range price adjustments, with high - level price drops at night. The overall market is in a state of shock. The domestic market has narrow - range fluctuations, with transactions mainly around 686 - 690 US dollars/ton. The foreign market has narrow - range adjustments, with transactions mainly around 13 - 15 US dollars/ton in the morning. New cargo transactions in the afternoon are mainly around 513 - 514 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Downstream Industry**: The prices of polyester products such as polyester filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips have changed, with production and sales showing different situations. Polyester filament production and sales are light, while some polyester production and sales are still acceptable. Most downstream factories are still in a state of waiting and observing, and the overall demand is weak [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Multiple ethylene glycol units have completed maintenance and started to increase production, and the supply scale has gradually increased. At the same time, geopolitical impacts have eased, and the supply situation has improved [2]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream polyester industry's demand is weak. Most downstream factories are still waiting and observing, and the willingness to purchase raw materials is insufficient. With the weakening of oil prices, the cost support for ethylene glycol is also weakening [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Methanol's unilateral driving force is limited. In terms of valuation, the profits of upstream raw materials are still high, while the comprehensive profits of downstream are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively expensive. In terms of driving force, the current supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The previous geopolitical conflict intensified the shortage of port mobile supply, causing the basis in the East China region to rise significantly. Now the geopolitical situation has eased, most Iranian plants have restarted, and with the replenishment of inland and South American supplies, the shortage of port spot has been alleviated, and the ports are gradually accumulating inventory. It is expected that the operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2463 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, up 20 yuan/ton (0.82%) from July 11; MA05 closed at 2388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.10%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2385 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan/ton (0.74%); in Shandong it was 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.22%); in Guangdong it was 2395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); in Shaanxi it was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.61%); in Sichuan - Chongqing it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); in Hubei it was 2305 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia it was 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.75%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 78 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from July 11 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (2.05%); the price of Yulin Q6000 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton (1.53%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price in Chongqing was 3.30 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 14, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 417.10 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.49%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **MTO Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 440.40 yuan/ton, up 37.60 yuan/ton (9.33%); the profit of East China MTO was - 682.07 yuan/ton, down 32.50 yuan/ton (-5.00%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid was 343.03 yuan/ton, down 44.02 yuan/ton (-11.37%); the profit of MTBE was 45.44 yuan/ton, up 61.80 yuan/ton (377.75%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 238.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of a certain product (erquge) was 466.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-9.69%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated in a narrow range, opening at 2369 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 724,589 lots and an open interest of 655,520 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton, and there is currently a lack of bid and transaction information. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of far - month arriving cargoes is +0.5 - 1.5%, and the recent transactions of far - month arriving cargoes are at +0.85 - 1% [1]