1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has been postponed to September/December, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more apparent [1] - For alumina, the production disturbance of bauxite in Guinea may push up prices and support production costs, but the potential resumption of new or overhauled alumina production capacity may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. For electrolytic aluminum, the easing of China - US tariffs may lead to an expected rush to export, but the traditional consumption off - season may weaken downstream demand, causing wide - range price fluctuations. For aluminum alloy, the decreasing domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory and increasing aluminum alloy inventory may cause the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy to first strengthen and then weaken [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: In China, Shanxi and Henan mines have not fully resumed production, and there are production disturbances in Guinea and Guangxi. However, new alumina production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and Shanxi are being put into operation or under construction, which may increase domestic production in June. Overseas, projects like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project may increase production, and the opening of the import window may increase imports [3][26][31] - **Cost and price**: The daily average full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. Alumina prices may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3][23] - **Inventory situation**: The inventory in China's ports has increased, while the inventory in SHFE warehouses has decreased [14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic production capacity such as Luoyang Yichuan Yugang Longquan Aluminum's transfer project and Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's project may increase production in June. Overseas, production changes in factories like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and New Zealand's Tiwai Point may affect imports [4][56] - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton. The price may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [5] - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory in the bonded area has increased [40][43] Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum may decrease in June. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may also decrease. The expansion project of Yichiu Resources is gradually releasing production capacity, increasing the operating rate of secondary aluminum alloy production [7] - **Cost and profit**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,060 yuan/ton, and that of secondary aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,080 yuan/ton with negative profit [7] - **Inventory and price difference**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, while the inventory of aluminum alloy is increasing. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may first strengthen and then weaken, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends paying attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound of methanol. Currently, the valuation of methanol is relatively neutral compared to its upstream and downstream. The fundamental outlook is bearish, with supply expected to increase in June due to high upstream profits leading to more restarts than maintenance in the mainland and the resumption of Iranian shipments, while demand has limited room for further improvement as MTO demand is at a high level and traditional demand is in the off - season with poor profits [5][45]. - The report suggests focusing on short - selling opportunities after the rebound, specifically in the 2310 - 2330 range for the 09 contract [5][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From May 26 to June 6, the methanol price oscillated and rebounded. The main reasons were the rebound of oil and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, which provided short - term upward momentum for methanol [5][10][45]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis in East China weakened slightly. On May 26, the basis in East China was 46 yuan/ton, and on June 6, it was 36 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread remained stable. On May 26, the spread was - 69 yuan/ton, and on June 6, it was - 63 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Cost and Operation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol production gradually declined, but remained relatively high due to the low coal price. As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price was 618 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from May 23, and the Datong steam - coal wagon - top price was 535 yuan/ton, unchanged from May 23. As of June 5, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.3%, down 0.12 percentage points month - on - month and up 6.34 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 49.53%, down 0.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.48 percentage points year - on - year. Methanol supply in June is expected to be relatively loose, with high domestic supply due to high coal - to - methanol profits and increased imports as most of the previously shut - down Iranian plants have restarted [15]. - **Inventory**: Methanol has gradually entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of the week of June 5, the inventory in East China ports was 29.26 million tons, up 4.5 million tons month - on - month and up 0.83 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in South China ports was 16.58 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month and down 1.01 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.45 million tons, up 1.85 million tons month - on - month and down 0.19 million tons year - on - year [22]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - **MTO Demand**: The demand for methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has limited room for further improvement. MTO is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. The profit of coastal MTO plants has declined slightly but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous years, while the profit of inland plants is relatively poor, limiting the upward space of inland coal - to - methanol prices. As of June 5, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 84.55%, up 2.54 percentage points month - on - month and up 15.96 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of enterprises using externally - purchased methanol to produce olefins was 85.13%, up 0.61 percentage points month - on - month and up 27.61 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - **Traditional Demand**: Traditional demand for methanol is generally weak. The traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. In the short term, the profit of traditional downstream industries is poor, and traditional demand is unlikely to provide positive factors [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The uncertainty of Trump administration's tariff policy, continuous gold purchases by central banks of multiple countries, and geopolitical risks make precious metal prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. Pay attention to certain support and resistance levels for different gold and silver markets [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads (near - far month, spot - futures) showed various changes from different time points. For example, the closing price on 2025 - 06 - 09 was 772.01 yuan/gram, with a change of - 7.55 compared to a previous period [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Similar to Shanghai Gold, data on closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads had different changes. For instance, the closing price on 2025 - 06 - 09 was 8839 yuan/kg [1] - **COMEX Gold and Silver**: Closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads also had corresponding changes. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract on 2025 - 06 - 09 was 3331.00 [1] - **London Gold and Silver**: London gold spot price was 3339.90 dollars/ounce on 2025 - 06 - 09, and London silver spot price was 36.19 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - **Geopolitical**: Iran said it would strike Israel's secret nuclear facilities if attacked by Israel; there was an escalation of unrest in Los Angeles, and Trump made related remarks [1] - **Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy**: Trump's tariff policy caused concerns about inflation rebound. US May non - farm payrolls were 18.9 million, average hourly earnings rate was 3.9%, delaying the Fed's expected rate - cut time to September/December. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, the Bank of England cut rates in May, and the Japanese central bank may raise rates around July [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to support around 3000 - 3200 and resistance around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, support around 730 - 750 and resistance around 840 - 900; for London silver, support around 31 - 34 and resistance around 38 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support around 8300 - 8500 and resistance around 9500 - 10000 [1]

| 元用期货 | | | 碳 锌 8 详20250610:国内碳酸锂6月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-06 | 2025-06-03 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 60540.00 | 60820.00 | 59900.00 | -280.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 60700.00 | 60440.00 | 59940.00 | 260.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 60960.00 | 60920.00 | 59900.00 | 40.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 60960.00 | 60920.00 | 59820.00 | 40.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 60700.00 | 60440.00 | 59940.00 | 260.00 | | | 砖酸锂期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交量(手) ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250610: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 6月9日 6月6日 单位 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1656.00 1695.00 1760.00 | 1669.00 1700.00 1830.00 | -13.00 -5.00 -70.00 | -0.78% -0.29% -3.83% | | | 民素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1697.00 | 1720.00 | -23.00 | -1.34% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1690.00 | -50.00 | -2.96% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1830.00 | -70.00 | -3.83% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term methanol has rebound momentum due to the recent rebound in oil prices and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is still not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. Supply from imports and inland has recovered quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Content Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2279 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.40%; MA09 closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2325 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.87%; in Shandong, 2162.50 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.82%; in Guangdong, 2300 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Shaanxi, 1937.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.52%; in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, there was no change; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1882.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.53% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton, 470 yuan/ton, and 480 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, they remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit of methanol: Northwest MTO profit was 587.60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 2.55%; East China MTO profit was - 611.07 yuan/ton, down 108.50 yuan/ton or - 21.59%; acetic acid profit was 473.45 yuan/ton, down 39.25 yuan/ton or - 7.66%; MTBE profit was 303.32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 19.74%; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; another product's profit was 798 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or - 11.14% [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2265 yuan/ton, closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 590228 lots and an open interest of 819092, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts had trading on the trading day [1] - Foreign information: Currently, two methanol units with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price may rebound in the short - term due to the continuous tight supply of waste batteries, the expanding losses of secondary lead smelters, and the high uncertainty of their production, but the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainties need to be further observed [1] - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the inventory is relatively low, the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase, and the zinc price has broken through the 22,000 yuan/ton mark. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,525.00 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,765.00 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.71%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.43, down 0.79% [1] Supply and Demand - The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the production of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries, limited supply of recyclers, and high reluctance to sell. The demand is weak as it is in the off - season [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 53,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from June 3 and more than 500 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The lead price may rebound in the short - term, but attention should be paid to cost support and macro - uncertainties [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,520.00 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,910.00 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,654.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.32%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.26, down 1.81% [1] Supply and Demand - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. Although the start - up rate of some downstream sectors has rebounded, the overall demand is still weak, and it is expected to decline this week considering environmental inspections [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from June 3 and 2,400 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to the suspension of Myanmar tin ore transportation through Thailand and domestic production and supply factors, the expected supply of tin ore in China is tight, and the operating capacity of refined tin fluctuates downward. With the decrease in domestic and foreign refined tin inventories, the Shanghai tin price may rebound. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On June 9, 2025, the closing price was 263,740, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 84,455 lots, a decrease of 39,883 lots; the open interest was 25,485 lots, a decrease of 492 lots; the inventory was 6,904 tons, a decrease of 116 tons. The basis was 160, a decrease of 640; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 40, an increase of 160 [1]. - **LME Tin Futures**: On June 9, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was 32,600, up 345 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 25, a decrease of 25; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 139, an increase of 6. The global inventory was 2,440 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Price Ratio**: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.09 on June 9, 2025, down 0.08 from the previous day [1]. Supply - side Factors - **Domestic**: The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased compared with last week. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi plan to stop production for maintenance, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and inventory in June. The scrap tin recycling system is under pressure, and the risk of capacity withdrawal increases, which may cause a month - on - month decrease in China's recycled tin production in June [1]. - **International**: The resumption of production of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo (Kinshasa) is phased, and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. The MSC smelting company in Malaysia suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance's approval of mining licenses is affected by corruption investigations and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. Although PT Tinah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, the export volume of refined tin in June may not increase significantly [1]. - **Import**: Thailand's suspension of tin ore transportation from Myanmar since June 4 is expected to cause a reduction of 500 - 1,000 metal tons in China's tin ore imports in June [1]. Demand - side Factors - The processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production capacity utilization rate and inventory of China's tin solder wheels in June, and a month - on - month increase in imports and exports of China's solder strips in June. The production, imports, and exports of China's silver - tin plates may decrease, increase, and increase respectively month - on - month in June. The production capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries decreased compared with last week [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet-quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The outcome of the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on the macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current fundamental weakness of coking coal and coke remains unchanged, with significant downward pressure [6]. - As the impact of high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall intensifies, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile. However, steel mills are still profitable, with limited enthusiasm for production cuts. The decline in steel mills' hot metal production has slowed, and it remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are reducing inventory through controlled and reduced procurement, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [6]. - Coke enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, with continuously growing and rapidly rising inventories. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, coke enterprises' operations have slightly declined. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break-even point, but there may be further price cuts due to weak downstream demand and continuous weakening of raw material prices. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - On the coking coal supply side, coal mine production cuts due to accidents, working face changes, and inventory pressure have increased, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it remains relatively loose. Coal mine sales are poor, coke enterprises are purchasing cautiously as needed, and transaction prices are continuously falling. The intermediate links are generally cautious and waiting, but the port inventory has rebounded from the bottom, indicating that traders are more confident in the future market. Coal mines are facing increasing pressure to sell, with continuous inventory accumulation, falling pithead prices, and coal mine raw coal and clean coal inventories reaching record highs. There are many cases of online auction failures and price cuts. The Mongolian coal port market has seen an increase in inquiries, but actual transactions are limited, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is high, with a decrease in customs clearance volume. The coking coal spot market is weakly operating, and the futures market is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: For coke futures, J2601 closed at 1260.1, down 8.0 from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1376.0, down 1.0; J2509 data is incomplete. For coking coal futures, JM2601 closed at 793.5, up 1.0; JM2605 closed at 822.5, up 4.0; JM2509 closed at 780.0, up 1.5. The 2509 contract's coking profit was 238.2 yuan/ton, down 12.7 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Spot Market**: Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices: Australian low-volatile coal was 668, unchanged; Australian medium-volatile coal was 1634, down 4; Shanxi's optimal delivery warehouse receipt was 857, unchanged. The 01, 05, and 09 contract's coking profit decreased by 8.7, 5.8, and 12.7 respectively [2]. - **Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' daily average hot metal production was 241.8, down 0.11 (-0.05%); 247 steel enterprises' daily average coke production was 47.3, down 0.04 (-0.08%); the daily average coke production of all independent coking plants was 66.8, down 0.27 (-0.40%); 247 steel enterprises' daily average coke consumption was 108.8, down 0.05 (-0.05%); the coke inventory of all independent coking plants was 127.0, up 15.6 (14.03%); 247 steel enterprises' coke inventory was 645.8, down 9.1 (-1.39%); port coke inventory was 214.2, down 3.0 (-1.40%). For coking coal, 110 coal washing plants' daily average clean coal production was 51.5, down 0.3 (-0.60%); 523 mines' daily average clean coal production was 74.5, down 1.8 (-2.29%); 110 coal washing plants' clean coal inventory was 245.1, up 23.0 (10.35%); 523 mines' clean coal inventory was 480.7, up 7.7 (1.63%); the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 681.8, down 27.4 (-3.24%); 247 steel enterprises' coking coal inventory was 770.9, down 16.9 (-2.02%); port coking coal inventory was 313.0, up 9.9 (3.28%) [2]. 3.2 Important News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held on June 9 [4]. - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing people's urgent and difficult problems, including measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation in the place of employment [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with exports of 10.67 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 7.27 trillion yuan (down 3.8%) [4]. - In May 2025, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% [4]. - On June 9, the national main port iron ore transactions were 850,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4%; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 102,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [4]. - In May 2025, construction enterprises' actual steel procurement volume was 5.57 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4%; the actual procurement volume in June is expected to decrease by about 3% month-on-month [4]. - In May 2025, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a decrease of 7.776 million tons (-17.7%) compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 1.785 million tons (-4.7%) compared with April [5]. - In May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the same decline as the previous month; PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [5]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel imports totaled 255,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; the import value was 4.29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. The average import price of steel from January to May was 1,681.6 US dollars per ton, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In May 2025, China exported 1.0578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4.8469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The silicon price rebounded due to a false rumor of a major company's equity sale, and it is expected to decline again, but the subsequent downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, with the transaction price moving down. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not show an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon's不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 2.54% to 7,475 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the flood season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall high hesitation, low willingness to resume production, and overall production decline [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and high inventory pressure. After the false rumor is confirmed, the silicon price is expected to decline again, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, the polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 1.83% to 34,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some factories may have new capacity put into production, with the expected output within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuously falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow market demand, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short term. The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Information - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main - structure construction stage, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1]. - Hesheng Silicon Industry denied rumors of a planned equity transfer [1].