王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8925.00 | -0.84% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7175.00 | 7200.00 | -0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7250.00 | -1.38% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/9 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7200.00 | -1.39% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 6500.00 | 6490.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 5860.00 | 5885.00 | -0.42% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/9 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot market for finished steel products has entered the traditional off - season for consumption, and there may be a seasonal inventory build - up trend in the later period. On the supply side, the production of strip products such as hot - rolled coils remains at a relatively high level due to profit incentives, while the production of rebar continues to decline. The consumption is slightly stronger than the seasonal average, and the supply - demand structure is conducive to the continued narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. In terms of cost, recent policy expectations on the raw material side have caused disturbances, and steel prices have rebounded slightly from the low level. It is expected that the short - term trend will mainly focus on basis repair, and the rebound pressure should be monitored between the long - process cost (2970) and the off - peak electricity cost (3125) [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - This week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3090 yuan (unchanged), and that in Tangshan was 3150 yuan (+20). For hot - rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3200 yuan (+30), and that in Tianjin was 3120 yuan (-20) [6]. - As of June 5, the overall production of five major steel products decreased by 0.47 tons, the factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 0.26 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 1.53 tons. The apparent demand was 882.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.62 tons. As of June 6, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 2972 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 148 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 128 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace segment, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China (Fubao's data) was about 3260 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3128 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 210 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 78 yuan [8]. - In the scrap steel segment, as of June 5, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 26.7 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51 tons. In terms of supply, the daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7 tons, a decline of 8.8%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 513.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.74 tons, a decline of 5.5%. Overall, the difference between iron and scrap steel prices continued to weaken this period, the economic efficiency of scrap steel slightly improved, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with steel prices [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Production and Inventory Data of Five Major Steel Products - The report provides detailed production, inventory, and inventory change data of five major steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils) from March 28, 2025, to June 6, 2025, as well as the latest week - on - week changes [10][11]. 3.2.2 Steel Production Statistics - In 2024, according to the statistics bureau's data, the crude steel production was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decline of 1.7%; the pig iron production was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, a decline of 2.3%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative pig iron production was 289 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel production was 345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [17]. 3.2.3 Economic Data - The PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%. Compared with April 2025, the production index increased by 0.9 percentage points, the new order index increased by 0.6 percentage points, and the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points [22]. 3.2.4 Crude Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the supply - demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including data on crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel - made steel production, crude steel imports and exports, and inventory changes [33]. 3.2.5 Supply - Side Data - **Long - process supply**: As of June 6, 2025, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7% (unchanged from May 30), and the daily pig iron output was 241.8 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared with May 30 [49]. - **Short - process supply**: As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.8% (+1 percentage point); as of June 6, the difference between iron and scrap steel prices was - 113 yuan (-5.5 yuan) [52]. - **Scrap steel data**: The daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased, and the inventory also decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel increased overall, with short - process consumption increasing and long - process consumption decreasing [8]. 3.2.6 Demand - Side Data - **Rebar production and inventory**: This week, the original sample rebar production was 218.46 tons (-7.05 tons), including 193.66 tons of long - process production (-6.46 tons) and 24.8 tons of short - process production (-0.59 tons). The rebar factory inventory was 184.86 tons (-1.6 tons), the social inventory was 385.62 tons (-8.97 tons), and the total inventory was 570.48 tons (-10.57 tons) [65][81]. - **Hot - rolled coil supply and demand**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 328.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.2 tons; the apparent demand was 320.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.01 tons. The factory inventory increased by 1.33 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.5 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 7.83 tons [84]. - **Plate demand**: As of June 6, the cold - hot spread in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (-10 yuan) [91]. - **Export situation**: As of June 6, the FOB export price of China was $445 (-$10), the export profit was - $11.5 (-$20.4), and the outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 2.7219 million tons (-0.153 million tons) [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while the molten iron production has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks. Considering the decent profit per ton of steel, the molten iron production may fluctuate at a high level, and the downward trend may not be smooth. The short - term rebound pressure is at 90 (722) US dollars, and participation should be cautious [9] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Platts 62% index closed at $96.1 on June 6, down $0.7 week - on - week, equivalent to about 805 yuan after exchange - rate conversion. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 724 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse - receipt price of about 745 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6] - **Inventory**: China's 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased week - on - week and is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory is 14,400.31 tons, a decrease of 69 tons week - on - week, 1,210 tons lower than the beginning of the year, and 1,137 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the 47 - port inventory may slightly increase in the next period [6] - **Supply - Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume this period is 3,510.4 tons, an increase of 79.4 tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 2,839.4 tons, an increase of 8.8 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment volume is 2,093.6 tons, an increase of 196.8 tons week - on - week, and the volume shipped to China is 1,815.8 tons, an increase of 336.5 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment volume is 745.8 tons, a decrease of 188.0 tons week - on - week [7] - **Supply - Arrival**: From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 47 ports is 2,673.9 tons, an increase of 76.5 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2,609.3 tons, an increase of 72.8 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1,383.6 tons, a decrease of 157.2 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of non - mainstream ores increased by 4.5 tons to 335.2 tons [7] - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills continued to decline this period, at 241.8 tons per day, a decrease of 0.11 tons per day week - on - week. It is expected that the molten iron production will slightly decrease in the next period. As of June 6, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China is 2,972 yuan, with a profit of about 148 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is about 128 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace sector, the flat - rate electricity cost in East China is about 3,260 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is about 3,128 yuan [8] Part II: Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse - Receipt Price**: Presents the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse - receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is Newman powder with a warehouse - receipt price of 745 yuan, and the second - best is BRBF with a warehouse - receipt price of 754 yuan [14] - **Iron Ore Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Displays the historical data of iron ore 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 inter - delivery spreads [16] - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: No specific data analysis provided - **High - and Low - Grade Price Difference**: No specific data analysis provided - **Premium Index**: Shows the historical data of the premium indices of 62.5% lump ore and 65% pellet [25] - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Displays the inventory and premium (discount) data of various iron ore brands such as Mac, PB, JMB, and Newman [27] - **Steel Mill Sintered Ore Fines Inventory**: The inventory of imported sintered ore fines of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 48.5 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 4.00%; the inventory of domestic sintered ore fines decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.10%; the average inventory days of imported ores decreased by 1.0 days week - on - week, a decrease of 5.00% [30] - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.15 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.73%; the daily consumption increased by 0.80 tons, an increase of 0.27%; the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.29, a decrease of 0.99% [33] - **Port Inventory and Berthing**: No specific data analysis provided - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: The inventory of imported lump ore at ports decreased by 60 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 3.85%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 0.64%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 79 tons, a decrease of 6.30%; the inventory of coarse ore increased by 96 tons, an increase of 0.91% [39] - **Surcharge**: Displays the historical data of iron ore surcharge from 2020 to 2025 [42] - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Displays the historical data of China's total in - transit iron ore volume and the in - transit volume from Brazil, non - mainstream countries, and Australia to China [45] - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: Displays the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [49] - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment**: Australia's shipment to China increased by 337 tons week - on - week, an increase of 22.75%; the total shipment increased by 196.8 tons, an increase of 10.38%; the proportion of shipment to China increased by 8.7%, an increase of 11.21% [58] - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment**: Brazil's global shipment decreased by 188 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 20.13% [63] - **Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment**: The total shipment of the four major mines remained basically unchanged week - on - week. Rio Tinto's shipment decreased by 1 ton, a decrease of 0.14%; BHP's shipment increased by 72 tons, an increase of 14.02%; Vale's shipment decreased by 220 tons, a decrease of 31.15%; FMG's shipment increased by 149 tons, an increase of 44.52% [65] - **Iron Ore Arrival**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 73 tons week - on - week, an increase of 2.9%; the arrival volume at northern ports decreased by 157 tons, a decrease of 10.2% [73] - **Freight Rate**: Displays the historical data of iron ore freight rates from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75] - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production of iron concentrate in 266 mines decreased by 0.2 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.28%; the inventory decreased by 2 tons [78] - **Steel Mill Ore Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.04%, and the average daily molten iron production decreased by 0.11 tons. The daily consumption of imported sintered ore fines increased by 0.84 tons, an increase of 1.42%; the daily consumption of domestic sintered ore fines decreased by 0.05 tons, a decrease of 0.61% [80] - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [86] - **Global Pig Iron Production**: Displays the historical data of global, Chinese, and non - Chinese pig iron production [89] - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: Presents the historical data of non - Chinese pig iron production and the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [94]

有色金属周报(锌) 基本面支撑有限，维持空配 2025年6月9日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：特朗普关税政策再度生变，市场对金属关税政策担 | | | | | 忧上升，避险情绪再度增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。受进口锌矿持续到货补充，国内 | | | | | 炼厂加工费持续上调，其中内蒙古、东北、广西等地区受 | | | | | 进口矿/炼厂检修因素影响，加工费涨幅较为明显；但随 | 随着进口锌矿不断到港，国内矿 | | | | 着港口锌矿库存明显下滑，部分新增炼厂产能开始产出， | 山亦稳步复产，炼厂原料库存增 | | | | 对锌矿需求旺盛，后续TC回升速度将放缓。 | 至27.72万吨，加工费持续上行带 | | |  | 成本利润：锌价回落后区间盘整，矿端对TC继续上调意 | 动炼厂利润不断好转，供给端增 | | | | 愿不高，预计6月调涨空间相对有限，国产TC或环比上调 | 量预期较强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the resumption of production of secondary lead is highly uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is continuously accumulating, which drags down the lead price. However, considering that both lead concentrates and waste batteries are in a tight supply pattern, there is also strong support below the lead price. In the short term, the lead price will maintain a range - bound movement, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.76% month - on - month to 16,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.96% to 16,780 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of LME lead increased by 0.51% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 600 yuan/metal ton month - on - month, while the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton to - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply expectation of lead concentrates remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of May 30, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [31]. - As of June 6, the average price of waste batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of waste batteries remains unchanged, but secondary lead smelters are still in a loss - making situation. The comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 502 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 720 yuan/ton [46][53]. 3.3 Supply Situation - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.46% month - on - month. Some smelters increased production and postponed maintenance, leading to an increase in the operating rate of primary lead smelters. The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 51,485 tons [32][38]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 36.2% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters reduced production or intermittently shut down the furnace for heat preservation. The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [59]. 3.4 Demand Situation - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 10.1 percentage points to 60.39% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season of consumption, some downstream enterprises reduced inventory pressure by extending holidays and reducing production, especially electric bicycle enterprises, which led to a decline in the operating rate of the sector [65]. 3.5 Import and Export Situation - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of June 6, the import profit was - 745.19 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [75]. 3.6 Inventory Situation - As of June 5, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 53,900 tons, showing an increase. The spread between the spot and futures prices widened, and holders were more willing to deliver and transfer positions, resulting in inventory accumulation. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase [84]. - As of June 6, the inventory of SHFE refined lead increased to 47,900 tons, while the LME inventory decreased to 281,300 tons [87].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - For lead, although downstream consumption is in the off - season with high inventory accumulation risk, due to the continuous shortage of waste batteries, the losses of secondary lead smelters have expanded, and some enterprises have suspended shipments. So, the lead price may rebound in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support and macro uncertainties [1]. - For zinc, the zinc market has strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing some support for the near - term. In the short - term, the zinc price will mainly fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the TC has room to rise, and the center of the zinc price may shift down. It is recommended to sell on rallies, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 16,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.51% to 16,780 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead basis was - 280 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 30,853 hands, down 0.20%, and the open interest was 49,975 hands, down 1.01%. The LME inventory was 281,275 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 41,799 tons, up 0.24%. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,974 dollars/ton, down 0.35%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.87% [1]. - **Industry Data**: From May 31 to June 6, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.46%, up 1.46 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 36.2%, down 3.8 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 60.39%, down 10.1 percentage points. As of June 6, the total inventory of lead concentrates at major domestic ports was 10,000 tons. In May, the supply of imported lead concentrates was tight, and the processing fee was lowered again [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.20% to 22,385 yuan/ton. The Shanghai zinc basis was 205 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 173,548 hands, up 18.16%, and the open interest was 119,647 hands, down 3.96%. The LME inventory was 136,975 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 2,004 tons, unchanged. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,662.5 dollars/ton, down 0.95%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.41, up 1.16% [1]. - **Industry Data**: From May 31 to June 6, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 59.58%, up 7.41 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.68%, up 4.87 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 59.5%, down 0.58 percentage points. In May, the comprehensive operating rate of SMM zinc concentrates was 73%, up 6.2% month - on - month, and it is expected to reach 77% in June. As of June 6, the total inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 345,500 tons, up 29,500 tons from last week [1].

| 华 | 北 | 套 | 吨 | 年 | 的 | 装 | 起 | 升 | 启 | 中 | 该 | 装 | 此 | 前 | 旬 | 停 | 车 | 执 | 行 | 检 | 修 | 南 | 套 | 各 | 温 | 重 | 河 | 2 | G | 置 | 6. | 6 | 日 | 置 | 月 | 两 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 万 | / | M | E | 于 | 于 | 4 | 下 | 万 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250609：工业硅略有反弹，多晶硅低位整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/9 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 8,100.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 7,290.00 2.17% | | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 810.00 -155.00 | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 35.50 0.00% | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 34,740.00 0.58% | | | | 基差 元/吨 760.00 -200.00 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 8,100.00 0.00% | | | | 元/吨 8,150.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 7,950.00 0.00% | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 8,300.00 0.00% | | | | 元/吨 8,100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in June is expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased compared to the previous period. The report also provides trading strategies for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy, suggesting investors to take corresponding actions based on market conditions [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract on June 6, 2025, was 20,070 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,736 lots, a decrease of 13,402 lots; the open interest was 181,458 lots, a decrease of 2,706 lots; and the inventory was 47,792 tons, a decrease of 349 tons [2] 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum Basis - The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum on June 6, 2025, was 20,230 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai aluminum basis was 160 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Alumina Spot Price - The national average price of alumina on June 6, 2025, was 3,269.68 yuan/ton, down 4.05 yuan from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed different degrees of change [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Futures Price - The closing price on June 6, 2025, was 2,901 yuan, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 696,379 lots, an increase of 20,294 lots; the open interest was 298,435 lots, a decrease of 21,037 lots; and the inventory was 92,768 tons, a decrease of 3,906 tons [2] 3.1.5 London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on June 6, 2025, was 9,670.5 yuan, down 37 yuan from the previous day. The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 69.84 yuan, a decrease of 23.31 yuan; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 132.5 yuan, a decrease of 26.84 yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Alumina - In Shanxi and Henan, some mines have resumed production. In Guinea, some mining rights have been revoked or some enterprises have been required to stop production. In Guangxi, a ten - year special inspection on illegal mining and heavy - metal pollution will be carried out. These factors may lead to a decrease in the production and import volume of domestic bauxite in June, but the demand is expected to be weak. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese alumina have increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places are under construction or have been put into production. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are expected to increase in June. The import volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum may increase, but the closing of the import window may limit it. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China has decreased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - American enterprises are actively competing for overseas scrap aluminum procurement. The production and import volume of domestic scrap aluminum in June may decrease. The production capacity utilization rate of primary and secondary aluminum alloys in China has changed, and the inventory of aluminum alloy has increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: Due to potential fluctuations in bauxite production in Guinea and Guangxi, the downward space for alumina prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,900 yuan and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,500 yuan [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Although the inventory of aluminum and aluminum rods is decreasing, the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The price of electrolytic aluminum may fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 yuan and the resistance level around 20,300 - 20,500 yuan for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 yuan and the resistance level around 2,500 - 2,600 yuan for London aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production and import of recycled cast aluminum alloy are in a loss state. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may widen. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage by lightly holding positions to test long the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, focusing on the support level around 19,500 yuan and the resistance level around 20,700 - 20,800 yuan [3]