Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned urea plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 23, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1658 yuan/ton, 1713 yuan/ton, and 1734 yuan/ton respectively. The UR01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) compared to September 22, while UR05 and UR09 remained unchanged. Among domestic spot prices, prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, 0.60%, and 0.61% respectively, while prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 103 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton, 880 yuan/ton, and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan and Shandong remained unchanged at 2520 yuan/ton and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5017 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1664 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1658 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1658 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to potential supply - side disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market has strengthened recently. Short - term silicon prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts and silicon enterprises increase production [1]. - For polysilicon, supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, and polysilicon prices are consolidating at a high level. Given the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, which may put pressure on the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed 0.28% lower at 8,925 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some previously - shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production as silicon prices rise. The southwest region has entered the wet season with low electricity costs, and enterprise production is steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some have plans to resume production; the organic silicon market has supply pressure again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. - **Export and Import Data**: In August 2025, industrial silicon exports were 7.66 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and an 18% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports were 49.14 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, imports were 0.13 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 0.67 tons, a 67% year - on - year decrease [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use interval operations, continue to hold out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse spreads [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained flat. The futures main contract closed 1.43% lower at 50,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some may have new production capacity. The market trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, and price increases are spreading downstream, but terminal demand pressure is high, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Other Information - **Photovoltaic Glass Export**: In August 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports were 46.61 tons, an 11.86% increase from July and a 33.74% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, total exports were 298.10 tons, a 16.49% year - on - year increase [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a negative view on PX, PTA, and PR, with a view score of -1 for each [3]. 2. Core View - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 22, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all declined. For example, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic and index prices of PTA, decreased. The CCFEI price index of PTA's outer - plate dropped 1.29% to $610 per ton on September 19 [1]. - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1]. - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts declined. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, and slices all declined [2]. Spread and Basis - The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and in the South China market increased by 6 yuan/ton to 84 yuan/ton [1]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 85.57%. The PTA factory's load rate decreased by 1.43 percentage points to 76.82%, while the polyester factory, bottle - chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament increased by 14.44 percentage points to 57.68%, the sales rate of polyester short - fiber decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 48.81%, and the sales rate of polyester slices increased by 11.62 percentage points to 64.30% [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - **PX**: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil, but without new positive news, oil prices were weak. The cost of PX was weak due to the weak oil market, and the de - stocking prospect was not as expected, with a bearish sentiment in the market. The increase in PX supply and the decrease in demand affected the supply - demand situation and market sentiment, and short - term benefits would be under pressure [2]. - **PTA**: The cost support was insufficient as crude oil did not recover the previous day's decline. PTA supply was sufficient, and the downstream polyester filament sales were average. The market confidence was insufficient, and the inventory removal of the industrial chain was not smooth [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply of bottle - chips was sufficient, and the downstream terminal had a certain demand for replenishment [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: On September 22, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose and then fell, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel price dropped by 0.46%. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. With supply stagnant and nickel ore prices flat, port inventories increased last week. Nickel pig iron plants' losses narrowed. In September, domestic production increased in both nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel, while export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory changes and the fact that the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On September 22, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. In September, stainless - steel production is set to increase. Terminal demand is weak, but the cost side is supported by stable high - nickel pig iron prices and rising high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Despite the loose fundamentals, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and limited inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,400 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 121,730 yuan/ton, and 121,920 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 100 yuan/ton, + 660 yuan/ton, - 190 yuan/ton, and - 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 66,099 lots (+ 3,446), and the open interest was 45,068 lots (- 5,353) [2]. - The LME 3 - month nickel's official spot price was 15,460 dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton (- 70 dollars/ton), and the trading volume was 4,024 lots (- 650) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price (basis) was 1,300 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. - The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines with different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8% CIF) remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of nickel pig iron with different nickel contents (1.5 - 1.7%, 8 - 12%) were stable, while the battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons [2]. - The LME nickel registered inventory was 218,454 tons, and the total inventory increased by 456 tons to 228,444 tons [2]. - The SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 180,000 wet tons to 9.71 million wet tons last week [2]. - The SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased, with the total inventory at 3,100 tons (- 600) [2]. - The SMM pure nickel social inventory increased to 41,484 tons [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,995 yuan/ton respectively, with various changes compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel contract was 138,615 lots (+ 21,690), and the open interest was 130,017 lots (- 1,168) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis (304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract) was 940 yuan/ton (- 50) [2]. - The prices of different types of stainless - steel products (304, 316L) in Wuxi and Foshan showed some fluctuations [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless - steel inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons [2]. - The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory was 593,400 tons (- 2,900) last week [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 13,500 tons to 880,700 tons [2]. Trade and Policy Information - In August 2025, China's unwrought nickel imports were 24,268.4 tons, a 36.11% decrease from the previous month but a 172.34% increase year - on - year. Norway was the largest import source, with imports of 12,020.2 tons (a 391.89% increase from the previous month and a 1745.85% increase year - on - year), and Russia was the second - largest source, with imports of 5,128.53 tons (a 71.10% decrease from the previous month and a 2.17% decrease year - on - year) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and a comprehensive operating rate close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic under the background of improved China - India relations. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from September 19 [1]. - UR05: 1713.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 9.00 yuan (-0.52%) from September 19 [1]. - UR09: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.57%) from September 19 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Shanxi: 1500.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.66%) from September 19 [1]. - Henan: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Hebei: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.19%) from September 19 [1]. - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1630.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.21%) from September 19 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -93.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 11.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: -53.00 yuan/ton on September 22, up 8.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Melamine Prices - Shandong: 5017.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 66.00 yuan (-1.30%) from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not significant. The expected supply contraction has weakened, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mining to submit a reserve report. The trading strategy is to recommend waiting and seeing. [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On September 22, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with September 19, with decreases of 560, 540, 560, and 560 respectively. The trading volume was 396,645 lots (+26,286), and the open interest was 271,624 lots (-9,640). [1] Spot Market - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with September 19. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 80 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,909 tons (-575), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137,531 tons (-981). [1] Import Data - In August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,469.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.79% and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. Chile was the largest import source, and Argentina was the second - largest. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. On the demand side, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September. [1]

Group 1: Product Price Information - The CFR price of naphtha in the East Asia region was $555.57 per ton on September 23, 2022, up 0.19% from the previous day [1] - The price of ethylene in North America was $851.00 per ton on September 23, 2022, down 0.9% from the previous day [1] - The average ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region was 6,300 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The spot price of methanol was 220 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The settlement price of the main contract was 4,290 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, up 0.23% from the previous day [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract was 4,338 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price difference between the near - and far - month contracts was 9 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022 [1] - The basis was 88 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022 [1] Group 2: Cost and Production Information - The comprehensive cost of ethylene glycol was 62.20% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The cost of ethylene glycol produced from naphtha was 60.00% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol production was 58.14% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The industrial load rate of PTA plants was 89.00% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The load rate of textile machinery in Zhejiang's PTA industry was 66.57% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 3: Profit and Cash Flow Information - The after - tax gross profit of ethylene glycol produced from naphtha was $149.2 per ton on September 22, 2022 [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal synthesis plant was 366.81 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022 [1] - The price index of polyester was 820 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, down 0.29% from the previous day [1] - The price index of polyester esters was 695 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, up 0.72% from the previous day [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber was 644 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, up 0.39% from the previous day [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips was 60 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, up 0.52% from the previous day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the double festivals, leading to a low - level repair of steel prices. However, the rebound height may be limited as the supply - demand gap in September, although alleviated, remains at a high level. After the contraction of per - ton steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down. The raw material varieties show obvious differentiation, and short - term attention should be paid to cost fluctuations. Currently, the long - short game is intense, and prices remain fluctuating within the range. The rebound pressure is concerned with off - peak electricity cost, and cautious operation is recommended [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3260 yuan (+70), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan (+20). As of September 18, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 17,800 tons. The inventory in steel mills decreased by 11,400 tons, and the social inventory increased by 62,700 tons. The apparent demand was 8.5033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [5] - **Profit**: As of September 19, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3135 yuan, with a profit of about 95 yuan per ton; the cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 185 yuan per ton. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of East China rebar was about 3335 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3208 yuan. The profit of flat - rate electricity was about - 245 yuan per ton, and the profit of off - peak electricity was about - 118 yuan per ton [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of September 18, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 32.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 531,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,300 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons, with an increase rate of 5.1%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.325 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons, with an increase rate of 0.9% [6] - **Macro Data**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 1.7%. The pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 2.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 579 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 672 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [20] - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.85% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 19.95% year - on - year. From January to August, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing start - up area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [28][31] 3.2 Main Variety Basis, Main Variety Inter - Period, Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has been falling from a high level this week [42] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Long - Process Supply**: As of September 19, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points, with an increase rate of 0.19%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4700 tons, with an increase rate of 0.20% [45] - **Short - Process Supply**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 32.3% (- 2.8). As of September 19, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 13 yuan (- 59) [48] - **Scrap Steel Arrival, Consumption, and Inventory**: The daily arrival of 255 steel mills increased, the daily consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [6] 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Building Materials Transaction**: The transaction volume data of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [64][67][68] - **Cement Mill Start - Up Rate**: The average start - up load of cement mills has increased to a certain extent. The average start - up load of national cement mills is 44.88%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points, and the increase rate has narrowed by 1.97 percentage points. The demand growth is still weak, and most regions have no obvious increase and are still in a fluctuating state [73] - **Real Estate Sales**: The high - frequency data of real estate sales in 30 cities are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [75] 3.5 Product - Specific Supply and Demand - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 2.0645 million tons (- 54,800), including 1.7972 million tons of long - process output (- 48,500) and 267,300 tons of short - process output (- 6300). The original sample rebar mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons (- 15,600), the social inventory was 4.8521 million tons (- 20,200), and the total inventory was 6.5028 million tons (- 35,800) [61][78] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 326,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons. The apparent demand was 321,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the mill inventory increased by 4200 tons, the social inventory increased by 42,500 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 46,700 tons [81] 3.6 Other Data - **Cold - Hot Price Difference**: As of September 19, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (- 10) [88] - **Export Situation**: As of September 19, the FOB export price in China was 485 US dollars (+6), the export profit was - 5.7 US dollars (- 2), and the outbound volume of 32 domestic major ports was 2.8305 million tons (+122,200) [92]

| 贵金属日评20250922: 多国财政扩张和地缘政治风险支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-15 | 收盘价 | 830. 56 | 831.60 | 6. 46 | -1. 04 | 824.10 | | | | | 成交量 | 210003.00 | 192704.00 | 131159.00 | 17, 299.00 | 78. 844. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持合量 | 152. 446. 00 | 240177.00 | 87731.00 | 135,828.00 | 104349.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 57429.00 | 56430.00 | 53226.00 | 999. 00 | 4, 203.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20250922: Pre-holiday Stockpiling and High Prices May Cause Copper Prices to Fluctuate" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The Fed's future interest rate cut path is hawkish, but pre-holiday stockpiling before the National Day and high copper prices affect downstream purchasing willingness, which may cause Shanghai copper prices to fluctuate at high levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,910, up 290 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,845 lots, a decrease of 41,669 lots; open interest was 116,552 lots, a decrease of 11,308 lots; inventory was 31,838 tons, a decrease of 631 tons; the basis was 80, down 290 [3] - **LME Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,996.5, up 50.5; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 64.9, up 6.19; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 153.2, up 7.081 [3] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6305, up 0.01; total inventory was 316,774, an increase of 3,932 [3] Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The tight supply - demand expectation of scrap copper leads to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [3] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3] Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the pressure level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the pressure level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the pressure level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [3]