数据来源:SMM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,投资需谨慎! | 天然与合成橡胶日评20250814: 天然橡胶震荡偏强 合成橡胶震荡运行 | | --- | | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-08-13 | | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-05 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 15800 | | 15860 | 14545 | -60.00 | | | 成交量(手) 315457 天然橡胶 | | 312971 | 251471 | | 2,486.00 ~ | | 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 182434 | | 184633 | 185247 | | -2. 199.00 - | | 注册仓单量 180200 | | 180240 | 176510 | -40.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 -950 | | -1110 | -70 | 160.00 | | | 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -150 天然橡胶基差 | | -150 | -1 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, and its production has rebounded, while the fluctuations at the Jiangxi mining end continue. However, as the exchange has taken cooling measures for coking coal futures, there is a need to guard against the "counter - emotional" sentiment decline. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or buy put options for protection [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The trading volume was 1,245,424 lots (-172,280), and the open interest was 392,675 lots (+35,677). In the spot market, the buying sentiment was relatively strong, and the basis discount narrowed [1] - The price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of mica also rose [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium phosphate increased [1] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C shipments were average. The production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in August [1] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 21,679 tons (+850). The social inventory was tight. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight [1] 3.4 Market Information - Fed Chair Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and there is a possibility of action at each meeting. Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs trigger inflation. Currently, traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September [1] - China's financial data in July: At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year. In the first seven months, the new social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan [1] - On August 12, US lithium giant Albemarle said its lithium processing plant in La Negra, Chile, had resumed normal operation after an "incident" last week. The company expected this event not to affect lithium metal sales and no casualties occurred [1]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The impact of the India tender on market sentiment is gradually fading. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production approaching 190,000 tons at a high level. The inventory accumulation amplitude of enterprises is not large, mainly affected by the increase in port collection, but the inventory of upstream enterprises is still about 780,000 tons. From the perspective of demand, domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] - **Summary by Relevant Content**: - **Price Changes**: On August 13, compared with August 12, the futures prices of UR01, UR05, UR09 changed by -9 yuan/ton (-0.51%), -8 yuan/ton (-0.45%), -1 yuan/ton (-0.06%) respectively; the spot prices in Shandong, Henan changed by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%), 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) respectively, while the prices in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The spread of Shandong spot - UR01 increased by 18 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The upstream costs and downstream prices in various regions remained stable [1] - **Important Information**: On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,758 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,772 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,745 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,747 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,757 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,653 lots [1] - **Trading Strategy**: The price of UR fluctuated within a range on the previous trading day, closing at 1,726 yuan/ton. Considering the current situation of supply and demand, if export demand cannot make up for the decline in domestic agricultural demand, urea prices will face a large downward pressure [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, inventories are accumulating, and the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1]. - Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.52, up 1.50% [1]. Supply - related Information - The "Limit Specification for Harmful Elements in Heavy Non - ferrous Metal Concentrate Products" will be implemented on September 1, 2025, mainly restricting the entry of imported lead concentrates with excessive harmful elements, but currently having no obvious impact on supply [1]. - Some lead smelting enterprises in Henan may face vehicle transportation restrictions during August 26 - September 3 due to environmental protection emergency control [1]. - South American mining company Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco complex partially shut down temporarily, but it has not had a substantial impact on production [1]. Market Fundamentals - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations significantly. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1]. - For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, raw materials are in short supply, some smelters cut or stop production, and the overall production is at a relatively low level [1]. Demand - side Situation - Some battery enterprises' operations declined last week due to high temperatures and poor demand, and downstream purchasing was cautious after the lead price rebounded [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1]. - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.04, up 1.16% [1]. Supply - related Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and production is expected to increase [1]. Market Fundamentals - The cost - side support for zinc is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and the output is increasing significantly [1]. Demand - side Situation - Downstream zinc buyers purchased more when the price was low last week, and the restocking sentiment weakened after the price rebounded [1].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has fallen and adjusted due to the cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the market, but the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price may maintain high-level consolidation. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by the supply-side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and the price has continuously broken through new highs since listing. Recently, although the sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates, and the price maintains high-level consolidation with large market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.71% to 8,600 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the silicon price may maintain high-level consolidation. Continuously pay attention to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises in the future [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 0.98% to 51,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month-on-month [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market as a whole is weak, and the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased. Recently, due to the expected increase in the polysilicon price, the downstream silicon wafer price has followed the increase, and the enterprise said it will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, the terminal market is still weak, and the component price has adjusted back [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The price maintains high-level consolidation, the market fluctuates greatly, and operations need to be cautious. Continuously pay attention to the evolution of macro sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts in the future [1] Other Information - India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) announced the approved models and manufacturer list (ALMM) of solar cells, covering six manufacturers with a total annual production capacity of 13GW [1] - The winning candidate list for the third tender of the first batch of photovoltaic module procurement framework of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 was announced, with 5 enterprises shortlisted, and the winning bid price is 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1]

镍与不锈钢日评20250813:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-05 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 122360.00 | 121900.00 | 120800.00 | 460.00 | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 122440.00 | 122130.00 | 120910.00 | 310.00 | 1 | 期货连二合约 | 122570.00 | 122280.00 | 121060.00 | 290.00 | L | 收盘价 | | | 1 / | 290.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 122740.00 | 122450.00 | 121230.00 | 122440.00 | 122130.00 | 120910.00 | 310.00 | 1 - | 收盘价 ...

镍与不锈钢日评20250813:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-05 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 122360.00 | 121900.00 | 120800.00 | 460.00 | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 122440.00 | 122130.00 | 120910.00 | 310.00 | 1 | 期货连二合约 | 122570.00 | 122280.00 | 121060.00 | 290.00 | L | 收盘价 | | | 1 / | 290.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 122740.00 | 122450.00 | 121230.00 | 122440.00 | 122130.00 | 120910.00 | 310.00 | 1 - | 收盘价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The increase in import tariffs has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a rise in the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation in the US in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the newly - added non - farm payrolls in the US in July or far below expectations, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, leaving room for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Gold**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 783.68 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London gold spot was 3343.30 dollars/ounce, down 36.75 dollars from the previous day [1]. - **Silver**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 9163 yuan/ten - gram, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 9173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London silver spot was 37.76 dollars/ounce, down 0.07 dollars from the previous day [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 495.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 66.71 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 64 dollars/barrel. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.22%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.91%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.38%. The US dollar index was 98.7427 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Gold**: A person named Bessent hinted that the Fed should be open to a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September and hoped to take office before the next month's interest - rate meeting. The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest since February. The US tariff revenue in July was 28 billion dollars, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 273%. The budget deficit in the ten months to July was 1.63 trillion dollars. After deducting calendar differences, the budget deficit in July was 291 billion dollars, a 10% increase from the same period last year [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies of Different Countries**: The European Central Bank paused interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The UK central bank cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/ten - gram [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi are intensifying. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a moderately strong short - term oscillation. After the downstream shutdowns, as prices rise, other lithium carbonate supplies will enter the market to replenish. This has little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress at Jiangxi mining sites and market sentiment. In terms of operations, short - term trading is recommended, and caution is advised when chasing high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trading Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 86,140 yuan/ton, up 7,140 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts was 1,417,040 lots (+1,379,633), and the open interest was 356,998 lots (+39,322). The basis discount narrowed [3] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan from the previous day. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also increased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 910 US dollars/ton, up 150 US dollars from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 40 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1,980 yuan, up 3,360 yuan from the previous day [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The total production of lithium carbonate from smelters and other sources was 143,170 tons, up 692 tons from the previous week [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C product shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 20,829 tons (+1,440), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters and other sources decreased, while the inventory of downstream enterprises increased [3] 3.4 Market News - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was flat at 2.7% compared to the previous month, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The lithium industry association called for strengthening upstream - downstream collaboration, maintaining industrial security, and jointly creating a fair, just, stable, and orderly market environment to promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [3]