| | | | | 尿素早评20250813: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 8月12日 | 8月11日 | 变化值 (絕对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 山西 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1756.00 1796.00 1720.00 1630.00 | 1751.00 1790.00 1730.00 1630.00 | 5.00 6.00 -10.00 0.00 | 0.29% 0.34% -0.58% 0.00% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1727.00 | 1722.00 | 5.00 | 0.29% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1740.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 17 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. Methanol valuation is relatively high. The impact of anti - involution policies on methanol production is likely limited, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, MA01 closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.44%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2461 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.08%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 12, 2025, prices in Shandong increased by 25 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2355 yuan/ton, in Sichuan - Chongqing by 10 yuan/ton (0.44%) to 2260 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 15 yuan/ton (0.63%) to 2390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 22.5 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2125 yuan/ton. Prices in Shaanxi decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) to 2142.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 121 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: On August 12, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 coal increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.99%) to 510 yuan/ton, and the price of Datong Q5500 coal increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.33%) to 570 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On August 12, 2025, the price in Chongqing decreased by 0.11 yuan/cubic meter (- 3.33%) to 3.19 yuan/cubic meter [1] b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 12, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 438.9 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 88 yuan/ton (17.60%) to - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: On August 12, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO increased by 20 yuan/ton (98.04%) to 40.4 yuan/ton, the profit of East China MTO increased by 16.5 yuan/ton (2.56%) to - 627.07 yuan/ton. The profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.54 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) to 200.39 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 30 yuan/ton (- 22.08%) to 105.88 yuan/ton [1] c) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,359 lots, and the open interest was 345,050 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In the past two days, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1] d) Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2384 at night. The expected anti - involution policy will still fluctuate, and the large fluctuations in coking coal will affect the sentiment of coal - chemical industries. Based on the weak fundamentals, the expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - The zinc market shows an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continued inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.30%; the futures主力合约收盘价 of Shanghai lead was 16,915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 lead premium was - 67.40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.00 dollars/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 29,986 hands, down 15.82%; the open interest was 51,223 hands, down 5.83%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.59, down 10.61% [1] - LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 59,791 tons, up 1.89% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,997.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.47, up 0.18% [1] Industry News - On August 11, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 35.5 dollars/ton, with open interest of 151,551 hands, an increase of 354 hands [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not substantially affecting smelter operations. Primary lead operations are stable with a slight increase [1] - In the secondary lead sector, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish expectations. Some smelters have reduced or halted production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Secondary lead operations are generally at a relatively low level, but are gradually recovering as the market's acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improves [1] - On the demand side, due to high temperatures and poor demand last week, the operations of some battery enterprises declined. After dealers stocked up earlier, they are now mainly consuming inventory. The peak - season demand performance is average, and downstream purchases are cautious after the lead price rebounds [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,430 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the futures主力合约收盘价 of Shanghai zinc was 22,630 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the Shanghai zinc basis was - 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the Shanghai zinc premium was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc premium was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Guangdong zinc premium was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 4.76 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.18 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 zinc premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 dollars/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 79,971 hands, down 8.88%; the open interest was 87,488 hands, down 6.32%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.91, down 2.74% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 79,550 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 15,768 tons, up 1.77% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,808.00 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.06, up 0.18% [1] Industry News - On August 11, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 3.58 dollars/ton, with open interest of 192,981 hands, a decrease of 977 hands [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously rising. It is expected that zinc concentrate processing fees in August will continue to rise, weakening cost - side support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and there is an obvious trend of increased production [1] - At the beginning of last week, when zinc prices were low, downstream buyers made purchases at low prices. After the zinc price rebounded, the downstream's inventory - replenishment sentiment weakened [1] Automobile Industry News - In July 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 2.293 million and 2.287 million units respectively, down 6% and 9.8% month - on - month, and up 13% and 14.7% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 15.838 million and 15.841 million units respectively, up 13.8% and 13.4% year - on - year [1] - In July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 units respectively, down 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month, and up 16.3% and 14.1% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 2.397 million and 2.428 million units respectively, up 6% and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - In July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, up 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million units respectively, up 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Oil prices are fluctuating around the US - Russia meeting, with a slight rebound due to oversold recovery, but pressured by high South American oil production. PX supply has recovered with new plant launches and restarts, and it has strong bottom support due to low inventory. Its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to PTA demand, but PTA downstream开工 has a strong downward expectation [2]. - PTA supply has a mix of restarts and maintenance. Spot prices rose slightly with the market, but with low processing fees, new plant launch expectations on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's hard to have a trend - upward market. It will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are stable. Supply - side starts are at a low level, with local shortages of spot goods. Downstream procurement is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.96/barrel (up 0.13%), Brent at $66.63/barrel (up 0.06%), naphtha at $568/ton (down 0.44%), isomeric xylene at $690.5/ton (up 0.15%), and PX CFR China Main Port at $833.67/ton (up 0.24%) [1]. - **PTA**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE TA main contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), settled at 4,718 yuan/ton (up 0.21%); spot PTA in China was 4,698 yuan/ton (up 0.58%); CCFEI PTA domestic index was 4,705 yuan/ton (up 0.21%), and the foreign index was $625/ton (up 0.48%) on August 11 [1]. - **PX**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PX main contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.80%), settled at 6,808 yuan/ton (up 0.56%); domestic PX spot was 6,708 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) on August 11 [1]. - **PR**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PR main contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.51%), settled at 5,954 yuan/ton (up 0.27%); polyester bottle - chip in East China and South China markets remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton and 5,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 12, 2025, CCFEI polyester fiber DTY index was 8,625 yuan/ton (up 0.29%), POY remained stable at 7,125 yuan/ton, FDY68D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), FDY150D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), short - fiber was 6,495 yuan/ton (up 0.23%), polyester chip was 5,880 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), and bottle - grade chip remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton [2]. Spread Information - On August 11, 2025, PXN spread was $265.67/ton (up 1.72%), PX - MX spread was $143.17/ton (up 0.70%) [1]. - On August 12, 2025, PTA near - far month spread remained at - 18 yuan/ton, PTA basis was - 21 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), PX basis was - 124 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), PR basis in East China was - 54 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and in South China was - 14 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [1] Operation Rate and Sales Rate - On August 12, 2025, PX operation rate was 78.11%, PTA factory load rate was 76.56%, polyester factory load rate was 86.88% (down 0.21%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate was 57.83% [1]. - On August 12, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 42% (down 1%), polyester short - fiber sales rate was 58% (up 7%), and polyester chip sales rate was 115% (up 18%) [1] Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. Trading Strategy - After price corrections, the TA2509 contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.38%) with a trading volume of 367,400 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) with a trading volume of 68,800 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.44%) with a trading volume of 17,000 lots. Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure above the market, but recently the bullish sentiment has resurfaced, and it is expected that the silicon price may maintain a high - level and strong consolidation. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and although the sentiment has faded recently, it still fluctuates, with prices remaining high and volatile, requiring cautious operation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Price**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,300 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, 9,250 yuan/ton, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively; the average price of oxygen - blown 553 in different regions remained unchanged; the average price of 421 in different regions also remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78% from the previous day [1] - **Polysilicon Spot Price**: N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg, 47 yuan/kg, 45 yuan/kg, and 44.5 yuan/kg respectively [1] - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous day [1] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.55 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.20 yuan/piece respectively [1] - **Battery Chip Price**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery chips M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1] - **Component Price**: The prices of single - sided and double - sided single - crystal PERC components of different specifications remained unchanged [1] - **Organic Silicon Price**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, 12,750 yuan/ton, and 14,100 yuan/ton respectively [1] News and Information - Yantai Huaxing Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. was established, jointly held by Xingfa Group and Wanhua Chemical, marking the deepening of their strategic cooperation in the silicon materials field [1] - Shifang Baichuan Xinyong New Energy Co., Ltd. is promoting its high - efficiency perovskite solar cell production project, planning to build two pilot production lines, with a design annual output of 1.4GW of high - efficiency silicon solar cells and an expansion of perovskite tandem solar cell production capacity to 200MW/year [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In addition, the southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments; in the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply, but recently the monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that ethylene glycol will maintain a volatile trend, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Logic - This week, ethylene glycol continued its callback and consolidation, mainly due to the dissipation of the macro - atmosphere and the continuous decline of crude oil. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol did not change significantly, and the "anti - involution" sentiment reached a low point, resulting in a decrease in commodity trading volume. The ethylene glycol futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, and the spot price followed the futures to remain weak [6] - Next week, on the cost side, the market's concern about the interruption of Russia's oil supply will decrease, and the crude oil price is expected to continue to be under pressure and run weakly. On the supply side, there will be a certain reduction in overall supply. Domestic coal - based plants are in the process of restarting, while overseas plants in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia have had temporary shutdowns with uncertain restart times. On the demand side, there is no clear plan for polyester plant maintenance, and a 300,000 - ton polyester filament plant is planned to restart. The theoretical production losses of most polyester products have narrowed, with polyester filament POY showing a slight profit, so it is estimated that polyester factories will not conduct maintenance for the time being. In terms of port inventory, the impact of weather has weakened, ports are gradually resuming operations, and the expected arrival volume at ports is high in the future. Coupled with the low willingness of downstream polyester factories to pick up goods, it is expected that port inventory may continue to increase slightly next week [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Situation Futures Market - The trading volume this week was 521,300 lots, and the open interest was 205,300 lots (- 34,000 lots) [11] - The closing price of the MEG main contract on August 11 was 4414 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from August 4, with an overall change of 0.57%. The settlement price on August 11 was 4404 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from August 4, with an overall change of 0.66% [13] Spot Market - Domestic spot: The high - end transaction price was 4515 (8.7), and the low - end was 4440 (7.4). In the week from August 3 - 9, the price in Fujian was 4397 yuan/ton (- 27), in Zhangjiagang was 4471 yuan/ton (- 31.5), and in Dongguan was 4397 yuan/ton (- 57). The foreign - market price was 521.8 US dollars/ton (- 1.8). The average basis this week was 78 yuan/ton, compared with 73.40 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol remained inverted, with an overall level of 100 - 120 US dollars/ton [15] 3.3 MEG Plant, Inventory, and Production Profit Situation Plant Operation - The restart of coal - chemical plants is progressing well, while the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's Phase II 1 plant has been moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, resulting in a certain reduction in supply. From August 5 - 11, the comprehensive operating rate was 62.81%; from July 29 - August 4, it was 63.01% [19] - The operating rate of oil - based production was 66.15%, coal - based was 57.77%, and methanol - based was 62.43% [22] - There were various changes in plant operations during the week, including the shutdown and maintenance of the Wonen plant, the short - term shutdown and restart of the Guoneng Yulin plant, and minor adjustments in the loads of many other plants. The Guanghui plant was in the process of restarting but had not yet produced output [24] Production Profit - As the price of thermal coal continued to rise slightly and the ethylene glycol spot price showed a weak trend this week, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol continued to be slightly compressed [32] - The profit of MTO was - 1535.88 yuan/ton (previous period: - 1561.35 yuan/ton), coal - based was 550.44 yuan/ton (previous period: 625.67 yuan/ton), and ethylene - based was - 111.10 US dollars/ton (previous period: - 107.85 US dollars/ton) [34] Inventory - The rebound in port inventory lacks sustainability, and the arrival volume of foreign vessels will decrease around the middle of the month [36] - As of August 8, the MEG port inventory was 417,200 tons, an increase of 27,200 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 14.21%. Among them, Zhangjiagang had 138,500 tons (an increase of 1000 tons), Jiangyin had 60,000 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons), Taicang had 108,000 tons (a decrease of 2000 tons), Ningbo had 70,000 tons (a decrease of 2000 tons), and Shanghai and Changshu had 40,700 tons (an increase of 20,200 tons) [38] - From July 31 - August 6, the average daily shipment volume at Zhangjiagang main port was around 4210 tons, at two major storage areas in the Taicang direction was around 4570 tons, and at the Ningbo direction was around 2500 tons. In addition, the inventory in the mainstream domestic trade transfer tanks was around 7000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous period [41] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis Market Sentiment and Cost - OPEC+ production increases, escalating trade disputes, weak US crude oil exports, and energy sanctions against Russia have all intensified the pessimistic sentiment in the energy market [45] Polyester Industry - To implement the government's "anti - involution" call, the first - round production cut of polyester filament in August has been implemented [47] - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.68%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6745 yuan/ton, 7955 yuan/ton, and 7020 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.3%, 0.38%, and 0.21% from the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market this period was 6494 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 1.46%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5880 - 6000 yuan/ton, and the average price this week was 5942.00 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from the previous period [50] - For polyester staple fiber, the supply has increased as the previously shut - down major factories have resumed production, and the demand has remained at a rigid level. For polyester bottle chips, the supply has been stable with a low operating rate, and the demand has shown marginal improvement [52] - The production and sales ratio of polyester products continued to decline month - on - month. The industrial chain has recently declined, and the downstream raw material inventory is in the digestion stage. From August 4 - 8, the average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 60%. It is expected that the production and sales of long - filament products will significantly rebound next week due to the upcoming downstream replenishment cycle and the expected increase in seasonal demand [57][60] - As of August 7, the inventory of long - filament products continued to increase. The average inventory days of POY were 19.70 days, FDY were 25.70 days, and DTY were 30.00 days. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 7.78 days (a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous period), and the inventory days of polyester chips were 9.21 days (an increase of 0.61 days from the previous period) [63][65]

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic anti-involution policies lead to inflation rebound expectations, and the accumulation of total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories slows down. However, the rebound of US consumer inflation may suppress the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, limiting the upside space for Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [5]. - Due to the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Given that Trump's administration imposed a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), and with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - US import tariffs push up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer inflation CPI and PCE in June to rise. However, due to the possible significant downward revision or far lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls from May to July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December [3]. Upstream - Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse in the underground passage of a non-productive project. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine started trial production. Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's west side resumed production in early June, but the east side's drainage may last until September. Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador copper mine phase II in Ecuador with a 150,000-ton capacity may be put into production in the second half of 2025, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates in August [3]. - The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the recycling base of recycled copper resources of Dianzhong Nonferrous successfully produced anode copper in early July. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity of domestic smelters for rough refining maintenance in August may decrease compared to the previous month, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of crude copper in August [3]. - Liangshan Copper's 125,000-ton cathode copper refining project may start feeding production by the end of the year. Northern Copper's Houma Beitong with an annual production of 200,000 tons of cathode copper ignited its side-blowing and top-blowing smelting systems on June 10, potentially reducing the domestic production of electrolytic copper in August [3]. Supply and Inventory - Indonesia's PT Gresik copper smelter (annual production of 300,000 tons) needed maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks in early August due to oxygen supply equipment failure. India's Adani copper smelter with a 500,000-ton capacity resumed feeding on June 16 after multiple delays but still faced the risk of cancellation of long-term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates. African agricultural exports delayed ship bookings until late August, leading to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, potentially reducing the domestic import of electrolytic copper in August [4]. - The import window closure may limit the domestic import of electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas to decrease compared to the previous week. China's social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased compared to the previous week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper at the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports increased compared to the previous week [20]. Downstream - The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for East China's power and enameled wire increased compared to the previous week, causing the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) to decline (decline) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of China's copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of China's copper enameled wire decreased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of China's copper strip increased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper strip enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper tube enterprises increased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off-season are intertwined, potentially causing the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises to decline (increase, decrease, decrease) in August [5]. Market Structure - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the calendar spreads are negative [6]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and within a reasonable range, and the calendar spreads are negative and within a reasonable range. The reason is the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm [8]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai copper to LME copper is close to the 75th percentile of the past five years, which is due to Trump's administration's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), combined with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September [9]. - The spreads between COMEX copper's near and far contracts are basically negative and within a reasonable range. The spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and within a reasonable range, which is due to Trump's administration's copper tariff policy inducing potential cross-market arbitrage transactions [11]. - The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near and far months show a Back structure, and the closing prices of COMEX copper's near and far contracts show a Contango structure [13]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for LME copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [5]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term operation strategy: Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. The expected price range for lithium carbonate is between 70,000 and 100,000. Due to the shutdown of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. However, in the long run, other raw materials will fill the lithium mica gap, and the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly increase of 11.37%. The trading volume decreased to 2.77 million lots (- 630,000), and the open interest increased to 320,700 lots (+ 104,600). The basis was at a discount of 5,060 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [13][17] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [21] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,556 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In July, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [27][29] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [37] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [40] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 15,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. In June, the import and export volumes increased [46] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the export volume decreased [49] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [50] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, the production of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [57] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, the production of power batteries was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. In July, the installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.268 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The sales volume was 1.329 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, the production of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 22 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 90 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 959 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 2,271 tons, and the inventory of others decreased by 620 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 926 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 60 tons [82][83] 3.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. The expected price range is 70,000 - 100,000. Considering the supply, demand, cost, and inventory factors, due to the shutdown of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. After the price increase, other raw materials will fill the lithium mica gap, and the long - term fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment [87]

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250812: Natural Rubber Fluctuates Strongly, Synthetic Rubber Fluctuates Strongly [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in producing areas affecting the tapping process, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly as the prices of upstream raw materials rise. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Natural Rubber - On August 11, 2025, the closing price was 15,755, up 205 from the previous day; the trading volume was 415,983 lots, an increase of 141,976 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 188,179 lots, an increase of 5,213 lots; the registered warrant volume was 175,440, down 840; the basis was -1,055, down 30; and there were various changes in regional price differences and monthly spreads [1] Synthetic Rubber - On August 8, 2025, the closing price was 11,785, up 270 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,315 lots, an increase of 96,945 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,088 lots, an increase of 2,463 lots; the registered warrant volume was 10,470, up 160; the basis was -218.33, down 70; and there were also changes in regional price differences and monthly spreads [1] Supply Side - In the future, there will be precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan, Guangxi, etc. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 64.71%, down 4.62% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 79.32%, up 0.58%. As of August 11, the daily after-tax profit margins of different synthetic rubber production processes showed different trends, and the start-up rates of synthetic rubber-related product devices were relatively stable [1] Inventory - As of August 8, 2026, the weekly total warrant inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210,330 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,500 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons; and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,666 tons, a decrease of 272 tons [1] Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapping. As of August 11, 2025, the glue purchase price in Songkhla, Thailand remained unchanged from the previous day, while the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in Hainan increased by 250 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, due to the maintenance of butadiene plants in Shandong and South China and the delay of new capacity in the Northeast, the butadiene price rose slightly. As of August 11, the daily average price of butadiene (99.5%) in China was 9,447.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of August 6, the weekly port inventory of butadiene in China was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons [1] Demand Side - As of August 7, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.18% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.53%, down 0.1%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.598 million vehicles, a decrease of 11,500 vehicles from the previous month; the sales of passenger cars were 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,600 vehicles; and the sales of trucks were 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles. The auto market has entered the traditional off-season. From January - July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [1]

Report Basic Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - No prominent contradictions, lead prices mainly range-bound [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply of lead concentrates remains tight, and the TC of lead concentrates rich in gold and silver and silver-lead ore with high silver content still has downward pressure; the price of scrap batteries is slightly loose but still firm [3] - The production of primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased; in the secondary lead sector, affected by sewage inspections in Anhui and tight raw materials, the operating rate of some smelters has declined, and the supply has tightened regionally [3] - The demand side is cautious in purchasing. Terminal consumption is average, and electric bicycle dealers stocked up a lot in July, so they are currently consuming inventory. The price increase atmosphere in the wholesale market has faded [3] - The price of secondary lead is inverted with that of electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with high cost performance. As the production of electrolytic lead recovers, factory inventories accumulate while social inventories decline. Considering the transfer of futures deliveries, social inventories may accumulate again later [3] - It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.06% to 16,725 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.66% to 16,845 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic board) increased by 1.49% to 2,003.5 US dollars/ton [14] 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported lead concentrates decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to -65 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weak trend [30] - As of August 8, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market circulation of scrap batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm [46] 3.3 Supply Side - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased by 3.3 percentage points to 67.4%. The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered for settlement was 52,775 tons in the week of August 8, an increase of 4,100 tons compared to the week of August 1 [31][36] - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 41.1%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 46,600 tons, a decrease from the previous week [56] 3.4 Demand Side - The operating rate of lead-acid battery manufacturers decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 65.25%. High-temperature holidays in battery enterprises in Hebei, Zhejiang and other regions led to a significant decline in overall production [64] 3.5 Import and Export - As of August 1, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the import profit was -694.14 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77] 3.6 Inventory - As of August 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,100 tons, a decrease in inventory. Due to downstream buyers' caution and the transfer of lead ingots before delivery, social inventories decreased slightly while factory inventories accumulated [88] - As of August 8, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, a decrease from the previous period; LME inventory was 265,800 tons, also a decrease [91]