Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overall, the demand side of coking coal and coke may not have much driving force. On the supply side, domestic coal mines are expected to face policy constraints on coal production release in the future, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply. The increment of Mongolian coal imports is expected to be an important supplement to domestic production, with significant potential for growth. Coke production capacity is still in an over - supply stage, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, as it is the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the country's macro - policies are expected to be positive, and the market may bottom out and rebound if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented [8]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Supply**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports were lower year - on - year, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand. In the second half, Mongolian coal imports rebounded. In 2026, with a cap on domestic coal production, Mongolian coal is expected to be an important supply supplement. China's coke production from January to October 2025 was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production may remain flat year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated, with strong plate demand and weak building material demand, weak domestic demand and strong export demand. Steel exports are expected to remain strong in 2026, but domestic demand is still a concern. Real estate investment and new construction data are expected to decline by double - digits year - on - year, and manufacturing investment may also face a slowdown [8]. - **Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory was highly differentiated between upstream and downstream, with upstream inventory reaching a record high and downstream inventory remaining low. In the second half, inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also decreased, with an average inventory level higher than last year [8]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand for coking coal and coke may lack driving force. Domestic coal production is restricted by policies, and imports mainly depend on Mongolian coal. Coke production capacity is in surplus, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to be under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, positive macro - policies may lead to a market rebound [8]. - **Strategy**: After the coking coal main contract stabilizes after a pullback, it can be bought in batches, with a reference support level of 900 - 950 yuan/ton [8]. Market Review - **Q1**: Coking coal and coke continued to decline due to oversupply, with prices moving down. Domestic spot prices weakened, and upstream inventory increased due to insufficient downstream demand [14]. - **Q2**: Coking coal and coke remained weak, testing cost support. Global macro - disturbances and high inventory led to price drops, and the supply - demand mismatch persisted [14]. - **Q3**: Coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly due to tightened supply expectations caused by coal production checks [14]. - **Q4**: Coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell. Supply tightened in October, but the market sentiment weakened in November due to energy supply guarantee signals [14]. International Situation - **Global economic growth**: Global steel production growth has slowed down, with developed economies recovering weakly. Asian regions led by India are a new growth pole for iron ore demand, but it is difficult to fully offset China's decline [18]. - **Supply country pattern**: Australia, the US, and Canada are major suppliers of high - quality coking coal, but their exports to China are affected by various factors [18]. - **Global coking coal trade flow**: Mongolia and Russia's export increments are being released, and their coking coal imports are important variables that can impact the domestic market [18]. - **"Green premium" institutionalization**: The global carbon pricing system is forcing the steel industry to transform to a low - carbon path, which will affect long - term coking coal demand [18]. Domestic Situation - **Real estate**: In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the decline in the real estate market reduced the demand elasticity for coking coal and coke [22]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, fiscal stimulus for traditional infrastructure will be weaker, and policies will focus on high - strength and special steel fields, with limited impact on coking coal and coke demand [22]. - **Manufacturing**: Exports of automobiles, home appliances, and ships remain stable, but steel mills' profit margins are compressed, and it is difficult to achieve positive growth in crude steel production [22]. - **Coal consumption**: Coal consumption will peak during the 15th Five - Year Plan and then enter a 10 - year plateau. The policy focus will shift from "supply guarantee" to "carbon control + safety" [22]. - **Coal price mechanism**: In 2026, a new mechanism for thermal coal long - term contracts will be implemented, with more market - oriented pricing and a narrower price fluctuation range, which will indirectly provide a valuation anchor for coking coal [22]. Macroeconomic Policies - **High - quality development**: The steel raw material market will build a policy support system around "low - carbon transformation, resource security, and structural optimization" during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the traditional supply - demand logic is being broken [27]. - **Green and low - carbon policies**: Green and low - carbon policies will be intensified, and the proportion of electric arc furnace steel is expected to increase to 20% - 25% to achieve carbon reduction goals [27]. - **"Anti - involution" and supply - side reform**: The 15th Five - Year Plan will emphasize high - quality development, and policies on coal and other traditional industries will be more restrictive, with tightened coal production capacity and long - term supervision on over - production [27]. Fundamentals - **Industrial chain structure**: Multiple charts show the price trends of coking coal and coke contracts, spreads between contracts, spot prices, inventory levels, import volumes, production rates, and output of related enterprises [33][38][42] - **Inventory**: As of December 12, 2025, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 33.36%. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased in 2025. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also showed a downward trend [59]. - **Imports**: From January to October 2025, coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in Mongolian coal imports. Australian coal imports decreased by 10%, and Russian coal imports increased by 4%. In 2026, Mongolian coal imports are expected to be an important supply supplement [73][77]. - **Production**: From January to October 2025, China's raw coal production was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and coke production was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to remain flat year - on - year [81][83]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was close to 2.38 million tons per day, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4%. From January to November 2025, steel exports reached 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.33%. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain strong, but domestic demand is still a concern [90]. - **Profit**: The profit of independent coking plants is significantly affected by profit levels. In 2025, the profit per ton of coke decreased year - on - year, and there were only opportunities for repair when coking coal prices decreased or steel mills replenished inventory [104]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the prices of coking coal and coke are in a downward channel, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and no obvious signs of a stop - fall. It is expected that there will be strong support around 900 yuan/ton on the weekly Bollinger Bands lower rail, and it is necessary to observe whether the coking coal price can stop falling and stabilize around this level [108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In 2025, against the backdrop of a decline in China's economic growth and a sluggish real - estate market, polyolefins will maintain a pattern of high new - capacity investment pressure, low operating rates, and low profits. With crude oil oscillating downward, the cost - side driver is bearish, and polyolefins will mainly oscillate downward throughout the year. In 2026, it will still be in the peak capacity period, with a planned capacity increase rate of up to 20%. Even if the actual production is only half of the planned level, the capacity growth pressure will still be huge. The domestic real - estate industry will remain sluggish, economic growth will decline, demand will be poor, and polyolefins will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices remaining weak [8]. - For unilateral and option strategies, adopt a bearish approach. The resistance level for plastics is 7000, and for PP is 6500. In terms of options, sell call options [8]. - For the PP unilateral strategy, short the contract. As of December 11, the price was 6241, showing a downward trend. In 2026, the new capacity of PP will still be large, and downstream demand will remain weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. Hold short positions [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Technical Analysis - **Market Review**: In 2025, the continuous decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for polyolefins. The industry was in the peak period of capacity expansion, with a capacity growth rate of over 10%. The market was in a long - term state of oversupply. Enterprises generally adopted a "price - for - volume" strategy. The demand in traditional domestic fields such as real estate was sluggish, and Sino - US trade policies impacted the export of plastic products. Polyolefins mainly oscillated downward throughout the year. In the middle of the year, driven by factors such as favorable Sino - US tariff policies, a rebound in crude oil, and expectations of anti - involution policies, there was a phased rebound. After August, the price returned to the downward trend [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the weekly K - line chart of the 05 contract, since June 2024, it has been in a unilateral decline, breaking through the bottom of the price range of the past five years at 6900. Technically, the trend is weak, with a resistance level of 6900 and a support level of 5350 [26]. 2. Macroeconomy and Energy - **Macroeconomy**: China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, but market confidence is still insufficient. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. China's economy is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. As of November, imports and exports have maintained year - on - year growth for 10 consecutive months, with outstanding performance in the export of mechanical and electrical products and the "new three types" of products. The trade partners have become more diversified, with an increase in trade volume with ASEAN and the EU and a decrease with the US. The year - on - year decline in new construction starts in the domestic real - estate industry is still large, and the decline in new - house sales has narrowed. The decline in real - estate completion and transaction areas is still significant [31][34][35]. - **Crude Oil**: Affected by factors such as the slow global economic recovery, global oil demand growth is weak. The International Energy Agency predicts that the demand growth in 2026 will be only 720,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than the historical average. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and as of August, the idle capacity of the OPEC alliance was 4.1 million barrels per day, almost all concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [52]. - **Coal**: "Anti - involution" and normalized safety supervision policies will continuously restrict the disorderly release of production capacity, and the growth space of domestic production is limited. Driven by the growth of the macro - economy, especially the tertiary industry and AI computing power demand, the demand for thermal coal still has resilience. In addition, the coal - chemical industry (such as methanol and urea) will be the main highlight of demand growth, and coal prices may remain stable [61]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: The spot prices are weakly declining, reaching new lows in recent years [68]. - **Basis**: The document provides the basis charts of PE and PP main contracts, but no specific analysis content is mentioned [70]. 4. Industrial Chain Profit Situation - **PE Production Profit**: PE production profit remains in a loss state, and the cost has support [76]. - **PP Production Profit**: No specific conclusion is mentioned, but multiple production - profit charts are provided [80][82]. - **PE/PP Import and Export Profit**: PE and PP import profits are poor, while PP export profit is acceptable [87]. 5. Inventory - **PE Inventory**: The document provides charts of PE production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, social inventory, and coal - based inventory, but no specific analysis content is mentioned [93][96]. - **PP Inventory**: The document provides charts of PP production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, port inventory, and coal - based inventory, but no specific analysis content is mentioned [99][101]. 6. Supply Side - **PE Production**: The annual increase in PE production is 19%. In 2025, the new capacity is 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PE is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half lower [116][134][143]. - **PP Production**: The annual increase in PP production is 17%. In 2025, China's PP realized capacity is about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PP is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half lower [124][140][145]. - **PE and PP Imports**: From January to October, the PE import volume was 11.01 million tons, with an increase rate of 3.3%; the PP import volume was 1.73 million tons, with a decline rate of 10.8% [128]. 7. Demand Side - **PE/PP Downstream Operating Rates**: The downstream operating rates are at the lowest level in the past five years [152]. - **PE/PP Export Volumes**: From January to October, the PE export volume was 910,000 tons, with an increase rate of 30%, and the PP export volume was 2.29 million tons, with an increase rate of 25% [170]. - **Plastic Products**: From March to October, the plastic product output was 54.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [173]. - **Automobile and Home Appliance Production**: In 2025, from January to November, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% [180].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂月报 东南亚遭受洪涝灾害 国内油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251130 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：段福林 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，巴西进入种植末期，阿根廷已经完成36%的大豆播种率，南美大豆种植顺利推进。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，MPOA数据显示，马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油产量环比增加3.24%；SPPOMA ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石月报 淡季终端需求拖累，矿价承压运行 20251130 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：段福林，从业资格号：F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供应：最近一期全球铁矿发运量环比有所回落，2025年11月17日-11月23日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比减少238万吨至 3278.4万吨。其中，澳洲19港发运1804.4万吨，周环比降181 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货橡胶月报 ——需求弱势拖累胶价 20251130 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 审核：段福林，从业资格号:F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 宏观：房地产继续下滑并有加速迹象，有待企稳。国内反内卷。外围美联储降息，资金面利好。但要提防美国衰退溢出。 ◆ 供应：大周期转换提升估值但供应弹性较大。割胶积极性尚可。今年天然橡胶产区物候一般，降雨较多而且泰南11月有洪水，原料相对 坚挺，加工端亏损，基差为近五年最强。但胶水-杯胶价差弱势，暗示供应问题不大，今年全球产量预期增长0.5%，中国进口量预期增长 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures PVC Monthly Report: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Focus on Bottom Support" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - 11 - month PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. The overall situation of the commodity sector was weak, but there was a rebound at the end of the month due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. - Supply increased in November, with expected production of 213.54 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate was expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will further decrease [9]. - Demand entered the traditional off - season in November, with the overall downstream operating rate at 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. Exports showed different trends, with PVC powder exports increasing and PVC flooring material exports decreasing. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy Market Review - In November, the PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. It fell in the first and middle of the month and rebounded in the late of the month. The decline was driven by weak supply - demand, increased supply, off - season domestic demand, insufficient valuation drive, and a volatile external macro - environment. The rebound at the end of the month was due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. Supply - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will decrease due to the cold weather in the north [9][24]. Demand - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. It entered the traditional off - season, and construction in the north was restricted. From January to October, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. Viewpoint - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Strategy - Aggressive investors can refer to the medium - term long - position plan for the V2605 contract, while conservative investors can buy put options for protection [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Not elaborated in detail in the report 3. Spot - Futures Market - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC futures first decreased and then increased in November, and the 5 - 9 spread weakened. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating weak reality and strong expectations. The 9 - 1 spread first increased and then decreased, and the basis of the main contract weakly sorted and slightly rebounded, with the futures in a slight contango [17][19]. 4. Supply Side Production Capacity and Output - The effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase [24]. - The effective calcium - carbide - method production capacity is 2.025 billion tons, accounting for about 69.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 1.475 billion tons, a 1.86% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 146,690 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month increase but a 0.83% year - on - year decrease [27]. - The effective ethylene - method production capacity is 877 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 549.52 million tons, an 11.25% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 66,120 tons, an 11.78% month - on - month increase and a 23.17% year - on - year increase [31]. Operating Rate and Maintenance - The average operating rate of PVC in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The loss due to maintenance in November was about 20,900 tons. In December, regular maintenance is expected to be 208 tons. The operating rate of the calcium - carbide - method increased in November, while that of the ethylene - method decreased due to maintenance in some plants [35][38]. 5. Demand Side Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio - From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.71945 million tons, a 1.72% year - on - year decrease. The sales - to - production ratio in November fluctuated downward [48]. Downstream Operating Rate - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of pipe enterprises was 39%, a 0.15 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 2.16 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The operating rate of profile enterprises was 36%, a 4.5 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but a 2.95 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of soft - product enterprises was 71%, a 0.61 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease [52][55]. Exports - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, and the UAE. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports. The cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [59][61]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, and the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year. In October, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 11.7%, a further decline from - 8.1% in September [64]. 6. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. The enterprise inventory increased by 3.07% month - on - month, and the futures registered warrants first increased and then decreased, still at the highest level in the same period [69][73]. 7. Valuation Raw Material Prices - In November, the price of semi - coke rebounded but was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly downward and was at the weakest level in the same period. The price of ethylene fluctuated slightly downward and was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable and at the weakest level in the same period [79][82]. Product Profits - In November, the loss of calcium - carbide - method PVC continued to expand, and the loss of ethylene - method PVC was also large, still at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and significantly decreased year - on - year [90][94].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) showed an overall oscillatory trend. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in futures prices and basis during the period [11]. - Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August totaled 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, remaining stable. The resumption of mining production in Myanmar has repeatedly affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in October, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the interference of the ore end [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. generally maintains an upward trend. Overseas uncertainties are still high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The ore end situation is unstable. In terms of operation, those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions, and conduct light - position long - biased trading, with the weekly support level around 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE Tin oscillated last week. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little change in futures prices and basis [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year, expected to recover in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August was 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of mining in Myanmar affected price points [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will be adjusted. The tariff adjustment on US - originated goods and the decline in China's October PMI are also factors [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are declining, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to supply shortages, domestic economic resilience, and overseas uncertainties, heavy - position holders can reduce positions, conduct light - position long - biased trading with a support level of 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mining disturbances, Indonesian export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors Analysis**: Production has a neutral impact as the ore supply is expected to ease; downstream demand is bullish as the industry demand outlook is positive; inventory is bullish due to inventory depletion; imports and exports are neutral with stable net exports; market sentiment is bearish; cost and profit are neutral with low processing fees; and the macro - environment is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no specific analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,865 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week. As of November 5, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,975 tons, also increasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 31, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 7,698 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of November 6, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan's refined ore was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton, continuing to be weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin production was 9,770 tons, significantly decreasing month - on - month due to major factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal supply in October. Domestic tin ore production in August was 6,854.21 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month [40]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [47]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer production was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [51]. - In October 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [54]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In September 2025, China's refrigerator production was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [58]. - In September 2025, China's washing - machine production was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, China's color TV production was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [62]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy production was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In September 2025, China's integrated circuit production was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [66]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [71]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing China's and overseas production, global supply, China's and overseas demand, and global supply - demand balance. For example, in 2025E, China's production is expected to be 184,500 tons, overseas production 185,000 tons, global supply 369,500 tons, China's demand 193,000 tons, overseas demand 186,000 tons, and the global supply - demand balance is - 9,500 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is under significant supply pressure, with high domestic开工率 and production, and continuously high import volumes. The demand is weak, with most downstream industries'开工率 showing a continuous decline. Port methanol inventory is at an extremely high level, with tight tank capacity and rising floating storage. As a result, the methanol price may continue to seek support downward. Key factors to monitor include domestic port inventory and the operation of MTO devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - For unilateral and options trading, adopt a bearish strategy. In options trading, sell call options [7]. - MA unilateral strategy: Short MA509. The price is under pressure and falling. As of November 06, the price of MA601 was 2,125 yuan/ton. The logic is high domestic production, record - high imports, average demand, and extremely high port inventory, leading to a bearish operation recommendation [11]. - PP - 3MA strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. The spread is in a rebound trend. As of November 06, the spread of the January contract was 96 yuan/ton. The logic is that the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profit is under pressure. However, in the short term, methanol is bearish due to extremely high inventory. The operation recommendation is to short on rallies and wait and see for now [14]. 3.2 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview 3.2.1 Supply - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,400 tons or 2.75%. The overall inventory shows a slight downward trend in some areas, but port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons or 0.70% [8][111][113]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In November, the weekly data of China's methanol production is expected to be around 2,008,400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from the current period. From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,860 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [8][69]. - Imports: The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 436,100 tons, including 368,100 tons of visible imports and 68,000 tons of non - visible imports. From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels (232,000 tons of visible and 113,800 tons of non - visible) and 41,200 tons of domestic trade vessels [8][76]. - New Capacity in 2025: China's new methanol capacity in 2025 is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new devices are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [78][79]. 3.2.2 Demand - MTO Industry: The MTO industry's开工率 is 90.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, the load of Shandong Luxi was at a low level, and the load of Xinjiang Hengyou increased. After the offset, the olefin industry's开工 continued to decline this week [86]. - Traditional Downstream Industries: The traditional demand is poor, and the开工率 is low. The开工率 of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and chloride industries is expected to rise, while the开工 rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat [8][89]. - Downstream Procurement and Orders: As of November 5, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [105]. - New Downstream Capacity: In 2025, there are new production capacities in various downstream industries such as methane chloride, glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and others [107]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Spot Price and Basis: As of November 06, the spot price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,080 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton [18]. - Domestic Spread and Freight: Data on the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and the spread and freight between Inner Mongolia and Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [19]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Price: Data on international methanol prices (including Southeast Asia CFR, China CFR, and Rotterdam FOB) and international natural gas prices (including European and Henry Hub) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [23][25]. - Inter - contract Spread: Data on the spread between methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [27][30]. - Related Product Ratio: Data on the ratio of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas (based on the main contracts) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [34]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profit - Import Profit: The import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Coal - based Methanol Production Profit: The loss of coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia has widened, currently at - 227 yuan/ton [8]. - Downstream Profit: The downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of East China MTO remains in a loss, currently at - 808 yuan/ton [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].