Report Title - The report is titled "Huaxian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report: Demand Resilience Remains, and Ore Prices Are Strongly Supported" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market still has expectations of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but currently, the demand side shows strong resilience, supporting the ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for the Iron Ore 2509 contract, with a reference resistance level of 730 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy Supply - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 1577,000 tons week - on - week to 33.527 million tons. Australian 19 - port shipments were 19.936 million tons, down 1 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian 19 - port shipments were 7.726 million tons, up 268,000 tons week - on - week; non - mainstream region shipments decreased by 845,000 tons week - on - week to 5.865 million tons. China's 45 - port arrivals decreased by 224,800 tons week - on - week to 23.845 million tons, and the arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.19 million tons, down 1.646 million tons week - on - week. Although the current shipments and arrivals have decreased, they are still at a high level in the same period of history, and there is an expectation of increased shipments by mines at the end of the quarter, so the supply pressure of iron ore remains high [5] Demand - As of June 20th, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 59.31%, up 0.87% from the previous week; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.82%, up 0.41% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output increased by 5700 tons to 2.4218 million tons, ending a five - week decline. Last week, the demand for steel products rebounded, the profitability rate of steel mills significantly rebounded due to raw material price concessions, the operating rate also increased, and the demand for hot metal showed strong resilience, providing support for ore prices. However, attention should still be paid to the pressure on ore prices caused by the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [5] Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138.9416 million tons, down 389,800 tons week - on - week. In terms of countries of origin, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1744 million tons, up 114,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 49.5779 million tons, down 1.1035 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.3624 million tons, up 1.3756 million tons week - on - week. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 19 days, 2 days less than the previous week. Although the port inventory of iron ore has decreased, considering the subsequent loose shipments from mines, there is a risk of inventory accumulation at ports [5] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - This section mainly presents various charts related to the iron ore futures market, including the prices of DCE iron ore 09 and 01 contracts, contract spreads, variety spreads, and basis differences of different iron ore varieties, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][12][14][16] 3. Inventory Side Port Inventory (by Country) - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of Australian ore at 45 ports was 60.1744 million tons, up 114,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 49.5779 million tons, down 1.1035 million tons week - on - week [26] Port Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138.9416 million tons, down 389,800 tons week - on - week [30] Mine - Type Inventory - This section presents charts of the inventory of iron concentrate powder, pellets, coarse powder, and lump ore at 45 ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [31][33] Port Congestion - This section presents charts of the number of congested ships and congestion days at 45 ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [39] Steel Mill Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.3624 million tons, up 1.3756 million tons week - on - week. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 19 days, 2 days less than the previous week [42] 4. Supply Side Australia and Brazil Shipments - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, Australian 19 - port shipments were 19.936 million tons, down 1 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian 19 - port shipments were 7.726 million tons, up 268,000 tons week - on - week [46] Global Shipments - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 1577,000 tons week - on - week to 33.527 million tons. Non - mainstream region shipments decreased by 845,000 tons week - on - week to 5.865 million tons [49] Four Major Mines - This section presents charts of the shipments of four major mines (FMG, VALE, BHP, RIO TINTO) to China, but no specific text analysis is provided [52][53] Arrivals at 45 Ports - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the arrivals at 45 ports in China decreased by 224,800 tons week - on - week to 23.845 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.19 million tons, down 1.646 million tons week - on - week [59] Monthly Imports by Country - This section presents charts of China's iron ore import volume, imports from Australia, Brazil, and India, and imports of different mine types, but no specific text analysis is provided [63][64][66] Domestic Mine Supply - As of June 20th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.45%, up 2.13% week - on - week; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 40030 tons, an increase of 1340 tons from the previous week [78] 5. Demand Side Hot Metal and Operating Rate - As of June 20th, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 83.82%, up 0.41% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output increased by 5700 tons to 2.4218 million tons, ending a five - week decline, indicating strong resilience in hot metal demand and providing support for ore prices [81] Transaction Situation - This section presents charts of the daily average trading volume of iron ore forward spot and the total trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [83] Port Clearance - As of June 20th, 2025, the daily average clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1356 million tons, up 123,100 tons week - on - week [87] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - This section presents charts of the production and consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil, but no specific text analysis is provided [88][90] Long - Process and Short - Process - This section presents charts of the production of long - process and short - process rebar, but no specific text analysis is provided [97] Steel Mill Profitability and Coke Profit per Ton - As of June 20th, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 59.31%, up 0.87% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 23 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level this week, but the overall storage volume was small and the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, coupled with the plum rain season in the South, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory reached a new high this year. Although it is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, the reduction in supply is limited, and the demand is weak. The egg price may fall to a new low this year [7]. - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is currently at a historical high, and the supply of eggs is under pressure in the medium term. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term but may have bottom support in the second half of the year [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - level Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the storage volume was small [7]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The number of newly opened - production chickens was greater than the number of old chickens leaving the market. In June, the number of newly opened - production chickens is expected to decline slightly, and the laying rate of laying hens will decrease. The overall demand is in the off - season, and the egg price is under pressure [7]. Strategy Views and Outlook - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is at a high level, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the support at the 3600 level of the 09 contract and consider going long lightly in case of an over - decline [9][10]. - The 08 contract has a large premium. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, with a short - term pressure level of 3700 [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level. The average price was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. 3.3 Supply Side - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. It is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, and the supply pressure may ease [29]. - In May, the total sales volume of chicken fry was 45.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66%. Although the sales volume decreased month - on - month, it was still at a high level. The supply pressure of eggs remains unchanged, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure [35]. - Due to low egg prices and rising feed costs, the enthusiasm for chicken culling has increased, but the number of cullable chickens is limited this month. The total culling volume of old hens this week was 539,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [40][43]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand for eggs shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, and the highest level of the year in mid - to - late September [60]. - Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the terminal replenishment is cautious, and the overall demand lacks positive support [7]. 3.5 Cost Side - Corn prices are rising due to reduced supply and trade frictions. Although the supply of soybean meal will be alleviated, the feed cost of laying - hen farming is expected to rise in the medium term, providing bottom support for the egg price [65]. - The egg cost line is an important driving factor for price changes, and the egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [69]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the cost of laying - hen farming was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.85%. The farming profit was - 0.82 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty, a decline of 8.89% [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai tin market showed minor fluctuations with a weekly decline of 1.19%. On June 20, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 263,500 yuan/ton, with small futures price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - In May, refined tin production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the import of tin ore from January to April 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease in annual output. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has been inconsistent [11]. - Recently, the improvement in macro - trade disputes is expected to lead to a marginal improvement in demand. In May, the new energy sector maintained good demand, while the traditional sectors had mixed performance. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% [11]. - With the tin ore supply remaining tight, processing fees are weak, and overall, profits will remain low due to ore - end interference [11]. - LME, SHFE, and social inventories all decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Considering the improvement in macro - trade disputes but inconsistent ore - end situations, and the price having returned to the level around the "Congo tin ore incident", with most of the supply - demand and macro - improvement expectations already reflected, there is currently limited driving force. Short - term range trading is recommended, with a reference range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo tin mines, trade negotiations, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai tin market had minor fluctuations last week, with a 1.19% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin was 263,500 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, with small futures price fluctuations and little basis change [11]. - **Supply**: In May, refined tin production decreased slightly month - on - month. Tin ore imports from January to April 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance, and the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has been inconsistent [11]. - **Demand**: The improvement in macro - trade disputes is expected to lead to a marginal improvement in demand. In May, the new energy sector had good demand, while the traditional sectors had mixed performance. The Fed's interest rate decision and economic data were also presented [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: With tight ore supply, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE, and social inventories all decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range trading is recommended, with a reference range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on macro - measures, tin mine disturbances, trade negotiations, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - There is no specific content about the industrial chain structure other than the title in the provided text. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - There are figures about SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no detailed analysis content is provided [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, SHFE inventory was 6,613 tons, decreasing week - on - week. As of June 18, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,200 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week. As of June 13, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 8,947 tons, decreasing week - on - week [25][29]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton, remaining weak [33]. 3.6 Supply - In May 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month. Domestic tin ore production in March was 5,628.49 tons, increasing month - on - month. In May 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, slightly decreasing. There are also details about new production capacities in different countries and regions [38][41][43]. 3.7 Demand - In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.642 million units, a 11.3% year - on - year increase; electronic computer production was 32.013 million units, a 10.8% year - on - year increase; PVC production was 2.0195 million tons, increasing month - on - month; mobile electronic communication production was 113.683 million units, a 7.2% year - on - year decrease; air - conditioner production was 30.833 million units, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 851,000 units, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; color TV production was 15.764 million units, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease; solar cell production was 70.569 million kilowatts, a 27.8% year - on - year increase; and integrated circuit production was 4.235 billion pieces, an 11.5% year - on - year increase [49][54][57]. 3.8 Import and Export - From January to April 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, 8,322.5 tons, and 9,861.25 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, 2,100 tons, and 1,128 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, 1,714.6 tons, and 1,678.1 tons respectively [67]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - It shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 - 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold [6] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the gold market from multiple aspects including price trends, inflation, interest rates, supply - demand, and the US economy. It concludes that while the gold market has an upward impetus due to the ongoing Israel - Iran conflict and the continuous presence of its hedging property, factors such as the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. Overall, the long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes have been 28.44% and 26.07% respectively, and last week they decreased by 1.83% and 1.99% respectively [4][16] 2. Inflation - In June 2022, the CPI data reached a new high of 9.1% and then declined moderately. The PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded for the first time, and the decline rate of core inflation slowed down or even rebounded. In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, with an expected 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%. In April 2025, the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%. The PCE price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3% [4][19] 3. Interest Rates - From mid - to late October 2023, the interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds fluctuated downward until January 2025. Since February 2024, the US treasury bond interest rate has fluctuated and rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high, and recently fluctuated widely near the 2024 low [4][22] 4. Supply - Demand - When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to the rise of the gold price, but when it is in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand looseness decreased, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In 2024, the domestic gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand decreased significantly year - on - year, but the domestic gold supply - demand was still in a tight balance, mainly due to a large increase in gold bars and coins. In the first quarter of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4][34] 5. US Economy - In May 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The data from January to April was revised downward. In May 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4% compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The non - farm employment data in May 2025 continued to be better than expected. The US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.06% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.47%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.5, declining for four consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.9, dropping significantly again, perhaps affected by reciprocal tariffs [4][30] 6. Strategy and Outlook - The gold futures main contract continued its weak adjustment last Friday. The Israel - Iran conflict remained moderate. As long as the conflict persists, the hedging property of gold remains. Therefore, the report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. However, the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. The current main contradiction in the gold market is the hedging function of gold. The long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged. Technically, the support level for Shanghai Gold is 775 - 780 yuan. It is recommended to hold existing long positions for observation, and those with empty positions are advised to go long. For options, it is recommended to mainly buy call options [6] 7. Central Bank Gold Transactions - In the first quarter of 2025, the global central bank's gold purchase volume decreased compared with the fourth quarter of last year but still had a net purchase of 243.67 tons. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously purchased gold. After six consecutive months without gold purchases, it continuously purchased gold from November 2024 to April 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, the central bank purchased 12.75 tons, 2.18 tons in April, and 1.87 tons in May [37] 8. ETF Demand - In 2023, the gold holding of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons. In 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons. As of June 20, last week, the gold ETFs significantly increased their holdings by 11.74 tons, and the gold holding in 2025 increased by 116.04 tons [40] 9. Exchange Rates and Dollar Index - The report does not provide specific analysis conclusions on exchange rates and the dollar index, only presenting relevant data charts 10. Gold Price Spread and Ratio - Last week, the spread between the domestic and foreign gold markets was at a normal level. The report also presented charts of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio but did not provide specific analysis conclusions [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with reduced but still high uncertainty. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation expectation to 3%. In May, China's industrial added - value and retail sales increased by 5.8% and 6.4% respectively. The international crude oil market is re - evaluating prices due to the tense Middle - East situation [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but policy risks remain. In May, China's ferronickel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's remained high. Sulfuric acid nickel enterprises' operating rate decreased, and production in May decreased month - on - month. In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons, a slight decrease [7]. - **Demand**: In May, stainless steel demand was suppressed, and domestic stainless steel inventory exceeded 1 million tons. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, and the production of ternary materials in May was at a low level [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased slightly, while refined nickel social inventory decreased slightly to 37,008 tons [7]. - **View**: In the short term, although the RKAB approval provides raw materials, policy risks and the increase in Indonesia's privilege use fee for nickel resources raise supply costs. The short - term improvement in macro - trade disputes has a positive impact, but the nickel price lacks strong drivers due to large stainless steel inventories and energy cost fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy**: Trade the SHFE nickel 2508 contract short - term. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to changes in the ore end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, sulfuric acid nickel, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months in USD/ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (CNY/ton) [11]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly by 21.7% to 36.5763 million tons. In 2025, imports from January to April were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, 1.535 million tons, and 2.914 million tons respectively [19]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% increase. In May 2025, it was 157,700 tons, a slight decrease. In 2024, China's ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% decrease. In May 2025, it was 24,000 tons, a slight increase [22]. - **Refined Nickel**: In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons. In April 2025, the apparent consumption was 39,373.3 tons [29]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to April 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, 219,000 tons, and 186,800 tons respectively, showing a decline from high levels. Exports from January to April were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, 16,000 tons, and 20,300 tons respectively [32]. 3.4. Intermediates - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: In May 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,300 tons, reaching a historical high [36]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: In 2024, Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% increase. In April - May 2025, production was 12,000 tons and 11,700 tons respectively. There are many planned intermediate production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [41]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In May 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 29,850 tons, a decrease. From January to April 2025, imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, 18,380 tons, and 32,604 tons respectively [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the production of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% increase. In May 2025, production was 3.4629 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory was 1,109,090 tons, a slight increase [49]. - **Positive Electrode Material Demand**: In 2024, the production of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. In May 2025, the production of ternary positive electrode materials was 60,700 tons, at a low level [53]. 3.6. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded Area Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 37,008 tons, a decrease [56]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 tons, a slight increase. As of June 19, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 21,765 tons, a slight increase [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 13 - June 20, 2025), the spot price of industrial silicon started to stop falling and rise slightly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 7,635 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, up 1.3% from 7,537 yuan/ton on June 13. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound but did not break through last week's high, with the highest transaction price at 7,565 yuan/ton and the latest transaction price at 7,390 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.51%. The main contract's open interest was about 305,500 lots, and trading volume increased[8]. - The supply of industrial silicon has increased. In the southwest region, some enterprises do not plan to start furnaces due to low market prices and high inventory, while a few enterprises with electricity subsidies have increased furnace starts. In the northwest region, the number of silicon furnaces has increased, mainly due to increased production by large enterprises. Overall, the total number of furnace starts has increased this week, and the market supply is sufficient, mainly in the northwest region. There is still pressure on the supply side, even though most 99 - grade silicon producers have shut down for maintenance[8]. - The demand for industrial silicon is weak. The photovoltaic industry association has reported "self - disciplined" production cuts, which is a significant negative for the end - market. Most polysilicon producers are operating at reduced loads, with mixed production schedules. The silicon powder market has few tenders, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low, so the industrial silicon price has limited room for increase. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon is average, and exports have decreased. In May 2025, China's industrial silicon exports were 55,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.47%. From January to May 2025, China's total industrial silicon exports were 272,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%[8]. - The overall production cost of industrial silicon is stable, and it is expected that the electricity cost in various regions will further decline in July. The spot profit is stable, and the futures profit has increased due to the rising futures price[8]. - This week, the standard warehouse receipt inventory was mostly in a destocking state. Silicon powder enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, but due to the rising futures price, some silicon powder factories reduced their demand. Due to the adjustment of the current spot - futures basis, there was a small release of 421 - grade warehouse receipts[8]. - Looking ahead, the overall production in the southwest region has slightly increased, downstream demand remains weak, and there is a supply - demand mismatch for different grades. It is expected that the price will still be more likely to fall than rise[8]. - The report suggests that investors should short the 2509 contract on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options when volatility is low. Traders or upstream enterprises are advised to sell call options to protect their inventory[8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is discussing "production cuts to maintain prices," with expected production cuts of 10% - 15% in the third quarter. Strict policies against "below - cost sales" and "substandard product sales" will be implemented. The National Development and Reform Commission's governance ideas for "involution - style competition" are in line with the current difficulties in the industrial silicon industry. There are rumors that Tongwei is promoting measures such as capacity acquisition and storage, and the government may introduce policies to re - position photovoltaics as energy products. In 2025, the US - China tariff war continued, and the National Energy Administration released the "2025 Energy Work Guidance Opinion"[7]. - **Week - on - Week Views**: As mentioned above, covering price trends, supply, demand, cost - profit, inventory, outlook, and trading strategies[8]. 2. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore, and downstream products such as organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, which are widely used in electronics, construction, and other industries[11]. 3. Spot and Futures Markets - Multiple charts show the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon (such as 553 and 421) in different regions (e.g., Tianjin Port, Kunming Port), as well as the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active futures contracts[13][24][33]. 4. Inventory - Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon in the industry, factories, the market, and futures, with data sources from Baichuan Yingfu and the research institute[48][50]. 5. Cost and Profit - Charts show the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon, electricity prices in major and non - major production areas, the prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, petroleum coke, and electrodes, and the cost and profit of polysilicon[57][61][93]. 6. Supply - Charts present the weekly and monthly production of industrial silicon, the operating rate, and monthly production capacity. There are also plans for new production capacity in multiple enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total planned new capacity of 3 million tons[110][114][117]. 7. Demand - Charts show the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon, the production, price, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon, the price, production, cost, and profit of organic silicon, the production, inventory, and operating rate of aluminum alloy, and the production and price of solar cells[120][124][133]. 8. Import and Export - Charts display the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, with data from the General Administration of Customs[174][179].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Situation**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - **Futures Spreads**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences**: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - **Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - **Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream situation shows that the escalating Middle - East situation boosts a significant rebound in oil prices. The actual production of OPEC+ is lower than its claimed output. The strong gold under currency depreciation and the complex geopolitical situation still support oil prices. - In terms of supply, after the tariff reduction, China is expected to actively replenish stocks. The market has been actively seeking third - party import substitutes for the US market gap, increasing potential supply. The domestic production volume has decreased marginally and is still lower than last year's level. The price of competing product LNG is basically the same as that of LPG, and the shipping freight has rebounded from a low level. - Regarding inventory, the inventory continues to decline. The port storage capacity utilization rate has dropped to a low level in recent years. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate is at the lowest level in the same period over the years, while the gas station storage capacity utilization rate is relatively high. The port inventory has decreased. - For demand, the macro - demand is weak. The combustion demand is in the off - season, gasoline consumption is at a four - year low, and although the catering consumption is okay, it will be affected by the new policy of banning public - funded eating and drinking in the coming months. The chemical demand has rebounded. The weekly capacity utilization rate of PDH continues to rebound but is still at the lowest level in the multi - year range, and the gross profit has declined again. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation has rebounded to a high level in recent years, but the gross profit has deteriorated. The capacity utilization rate of MTBE has rebounded, with a large loss. The "gas/oil" price ratio has dropped to a level close to that of the same period last year. - The strategy is that LPG is expected to mainly fluctuate in a wide range. Long positions should be held, with a support level of 4200. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Upstream factors such as the Middle - East situation and OPEC+ production affect oil prices, which in turn influence LPG. - Supply is affected by tariff reduction, import substitution, and domestic production volume. - Inventory is decreasing across different sectors. - Demand has different trends in combustion and chemical aspects. - The recommended strategy is to hold long positions with a given support level. [5] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The "gas/oil" price ratio of LPG has large fluctuations and seasonal patterns. The spot "gas/oil" price ratio has dropped. After the tariff reduction, inventory replenishment is expected, and the arrival situation later needs attention. - The LPG price is highly correlated with crude oil. The spot price has been fluctuating since Q4 2023 and recently declined weakly, with a smaller rebound than the futures price. - The basis has large fluctuations, with seasonality, regional differences, and a large discount for the expiration month of warehouse receipts. - The 3 - 4 month spread in Q1 this year turned into a back structure, and the 9 - 10 month spread has recently increased. - The price of LNG is basically the same as that of LPG, and the international frozen cargo price has rebounded slightly. [9][10][16][21][28] 3.3 Inventory - The overall inventory of LPG in China continues to decline. The port storage capacity utilization rate is at a low level in recent years, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is at the lowest in the same period over the years, and the gas station storage capacity utilization rate is relatively high. The port inventory has decreased. - The warehouse receipts have increased significantly and are at a historical high. [32][44] 3.4 Supply End - The import and export volume of LPG in China is an important part of the supply. - The domestic production volume of LPG is lower than the same period in previous years and is expected to decline with the improvement of refinery device integration. - The shipping freight has rebounded from a low level, driven by the inventory replenishment demand in the shipping industry after the easing of the tariff war. - The import gross profit has its own characteristics and trends. [67][65] 3.5 Demand End - In 2024, the PDH capacity continued to grow at a high speed of 25%. Although PDH is in a loss state, the capacity expansion still drives a large increase in LPG demand. - The demand for gasoline addition is weak, and the household combustion demand is decreasing. The commercial combustion demand growth rate has declined and is expected to face pressure next year. The increasing penetration rate of new - energy vehicles accelerates the substitution of gasoline addition demand. - The capacity utilization rate of MTBE has rebounded to a high level, the alkylation capacity utilization rate is similar to previous years, and the PDH capacity utilization rate is at a multi - year low. - The profit of PDH is not good, which affects the operating rate. - The gasoline consumption is affected by new - energy vehicles, and the combustion demand of LPG is gradually shrinking. The catering demand has recovered strongly in recent years. [76][80][87][98][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is optimistic about the increase in rubber production in 2025, but the rebound after the low - level of rubber prices is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level support, and aggressive investors can hold long positions. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on br and short on ru [6]. - The macro - environment is complex, with intensified Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Trade negotiations between China and the US may be volatile. Real - estate data is poor, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Macro: Middle - East geopolitical conflicts intensify. China cuts reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, while the Fed keeps rates unchanged with two expected cuts this year. Sino - US trade negotiations may be volatile. Real - estate data is worse than expected, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. - Supply: The market is optimistic about 2025 rubber production increase. The large - cycle production capacity inflection point has arrived, but production inertia remains. The warming of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean weakens negative factors [6]. - Inventory: Qingdao dry - rubber inventory has stopped accumulating at a low level and slightly decreased, possibly due to downstream restocking. Exchange ru and nr warehouse receipts are at low levels. Cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory has rebounded to a high since 2017, and Shandong semi - steel tire finished - product inventory is much higher than last year [6]. - Demand: The domestic passenger - car price war has intensified, raising concerns about inventory pressure and weak demand. Real - estate and infrastructure construction are saturated. Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025. Construction machinery sales are low, and cement production has a deeper year - on - year negative growth as of May. Passenger - car sales are strong but may have over - consumed [6]. - Strategy: Pay attention to low - level support, aggressive investors hold long positions. Focus on the arbitrage of going long on br and short on ru [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber prices rebounded and then declined, with some varieties having large declines. The upstream oil price rebounded, but the price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, was weak. The absolute price of old whole - latex spot is lower than last year and near the median of recent years [8][12]. - The ru basis has strengthened marginally. The month - spread has also strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions. The Ru9 - 1 month - spread is around - 800 in contango, the Nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread is around 50 and continues to weaken, and the br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread has reversed to around 120 and is weakening marginally [15][20]. - The spot whole - latex to 20 - grade rubber spread has fallen to a low level again, and the 20 - grade rubber has a high virtual - to - real ratio. Synthetic rubber Br has rebounded relative to natural rubber [25]. - Thai raw material prices have declined marginally, and the spread between latex and cup lump has increased. Currently, rubber is being tapped globally with normal weather conditions [29]. - Processing profits have declined again recently [36]. 3.3 Inventory End - Qingdao dry - rubber inventory decreased rapidly from August 2023 to mid - October 2024 to a low since 2017, and now the low - level accumulation has stopped with a slight decrease. Butadiene port inventory has rebounded [40][45]. - The ru delivery product inventory is at a low level; the nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a 5 - year high to the median level after the third quarter and are now rebounding from an extremely low level [50][56]. - Cis - polybutadiene rubber factory and trader inventories have rebounded from low levels. Tire factory and downstream trade inventories are high [59][61]. 3.4 Supply End - According to ANRPC adjusted data, the cumulative natural rubber production of member countries from January to December 2024 decreased by less than 0.5% year - on - year. China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [64]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years due to eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In 2025, the import data of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly, with a 17% year - on - year increase in March and a 21% increase in the first three months [68]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - side production capacity has arrived, and the bottom support is becoming stronger. However, production is affected by weather, pests, and profit margins, and demand affected by macro and policies determines the upper limit. There are signs of aging rubber tree age structure in production areas, especially in Indonesia [80]. 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire operating rate has rebounded to the median of the multi - year range, exceeding last year's level, while the semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded slightly lower than last year and is at a high in the multi - year range [87]. - As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of tire outer - tube production is about 3% and is marginally declining, with a much slower growth rate than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth of tire exports as of May is about 9%, performing relatively well but lower than last year [92]. - Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025 [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) are strong due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion. However, the price war has intensified, and exports face challenges such as tariffs. The support from passenger cars may be limited due to the weak real - estate and infrastructure [101]. - Overseas automobile sales are generally average, with the US and Japan seeing rebounds, but the EU performing poorly. Trade wars have disrupted consumption patterns [105]. - Cement production had negative growth last year and has marginally improved this year, but the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened as of May [111]. - Transportation investment is a key measure for stable growth but has limited effect due to infrastructure saturation. Excavator sales rebounded and then softened [115]. - Real - estate data from January to May 2025 has deteriorated, bringing pessimism. Given the long real - estate cycle and unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time [121]. - Road freight volume is stable but lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and substitution by railway and waterway transportation [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the operating rate and production of soda ash enterprises continued to rise, and the market production - sales rate increased month - on - month. However, the inventory continued to accumulate. The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash is weak, with no improvement in downstream demand, continuous increases in supply and inventory, and a gradual decline in spot prices. The subsequent pattern of increasing supply and weak demand will continue to suppress market confidence. Although the short - term futures price rebounded at a low level due to macro - disturbances, the rebound momentum is insufficient under the weak reality. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, due to one production line being shut down for water discharge and one for hot repair, and one previously ignited production line starting to produce glass, the weekly melting volume increased slightly, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Currently, glass supply fluctuates within a narrow range at a low level. Entering the off - season of demand, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and manufacturers' inventory remains high. Enterprises reduce prices to promote sales. Short - term demand is seasonally weak, and high inventory puts pressure on the market. The futures valuation is low and maintains a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the cold repair of production lines after losses deepen. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [8]. - **Supply**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [8]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The current supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Glass - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [9]. - **Supply**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [9]. - **Profit**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Currently, supply is at a low level with narrow fluctuations, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural alkali mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [11]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and additives, as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream products include float glass and other types. The downstream is mainly used in real estate (75%), automobiles (18%), and electronic appliances (7%) [12]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1007, and the North China basis was 133 yuan/ton. The FG9 - 1 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [16][20]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 11573, and the North China basis was 227 yuan/ton. The SA9 - 1 spread closed at 11 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. There were different inventory changes in different regions [23]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [32]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Glass**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [36]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [45]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Glass**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased [52]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [62].