Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, and the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows has increased. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2]. - Repo rates have rebounded, and Treasury futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 and a decline rate of 0.67%; the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1126, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.010 and a decline rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; DR007 is 1.50, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.98%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08% [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each Treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each Treasury bond futures variety, etc. [10][13][15] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local bond issuance situation [25][31] IV. Spread Overview There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [29][33][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][40][46] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][52] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change, but in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes [2] - The overall demand for eggs is still strong due to the festival boost, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 115.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.87% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.17 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.39 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.76 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.11 yuan/kg [1] - Wholesale market: On September 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.06 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.08 points. The average price of pork was 19.88 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 65.65 yuan/kg, unchanged; mutton was 61.21 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; eggs were 8.13 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; white - striped chickens were 17.68 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of group factories has weakened the festival's boosting effect. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change, and in the long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of breeding sows and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract yesterday was 3,113 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 30.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.95% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.60 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.11 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.10; in Hebei, it was 3.60 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On September 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.50 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.60 days, an increase of 0.04 days [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, the terminal consumption and sales are smooth, and the demand is still strong due to the festival boost. Attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybeans market is in the transition phase between old and new crops. With the approaching autumn harvest in the Northeast, new soybeans are about to be listed. Although there are some adverse conditions in some areas, the overall national soybean planting area has increased, and there is a strong expectation of a good harvest in the regions outside the pass [1][2] - The peanut futures market shows range - bound fluctuations. The supply of peanuts is expected to increase as wheat - stubble peanuts are about to be mass - listed. However, future rainfall in Henan may affect peanut quality, and low prices may lead to farmers' reluctance to sell [3][4][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3924.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 15.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.38%. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 296, a change of + 15 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information - In the Northeast soybean market, a small amount of high - oil soybeans have been listed, and most enterprises are waiting for the listing of commodity soybeans at the end of the month to start purchasing. The current price of early - maturing new soybeans is not representative, and attention should be paid to the progress of new grain listing. The overall growth of soybeans is good, but there are some areas with general growth, and there is still an expectation of a good harvest for new grains [1] - The prices of standard - grade first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared with the previous day [1] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7796.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of + 68.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of + 0.88%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8290.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.72%. The spot basis was PK10 + 404.00, a change of - 68.00 from the previous day, a decrease of - 14.41% [3] Market Information - New peanuts in the Northeast have been sporadically listed. Although the average price of common peanuts in the national market has increased, the prices in some producing areas have shown a stable - to - weak pattern, with a north - south difference in prices. The contract procurement prices of oil mills vary by region, and the overall demand for oil extraction is poor [3] - Future rainfall in Henan may lead to an increase in the possibility of peanut mildew, a decrease in yield, and low prices may intensify farmers' reluctance to sell [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream startup resilience of EB is acceptable, while the downstream startup of pure benzene is weak. The inventory of the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain still has significant pressure, and the startup of CPL, aniline, and phenol has decreased again. The startup of styrene has gradually decreased, and the demand for pure benzene提货 may be affected. The downstream performance is below expectations. For styrene, the downstream提货 volume remains at a relatively high level during the peak season, and the port inventory has reached its peak and started to decline. The startup will gradually decrease in the first and middle of September and then increase again in the second half of September. The startups of PS and EPS among the downstream of EB have recovered well, and the startup of ABS has also increased from a low level but has large inventory pressure [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 83 yuan/ton (+19), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 25 yuan/ton (+0). The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of pure benzene is not specifically mentioned in numerical terms in the summary part [2] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 57 yuan/ton (+29 yuan/ton). The EB2510 - EB2511 spread is recommended to be positively arbitraged when it is low [2][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 131 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 110 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 59.6 dollars/ton (- 13.0 dollars/ton). The import profit of pure benzene is not specifically mentioned in numerical terms in the summary part [2] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 369 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB2510 - BZ2603 spread is recommended to be widened when it is low in the short term [2][4] 3. Inventory and Startup Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.40 tons (- 1.00 tons). The startup rate of domestic pure benzene is affected by the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking 2. The import arrival rhythm has slowed down, and the port inventory has reached its peak and declined [2][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (- 17,500 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 78,000 tons (- 9,000 tons). The startup rate is 75.0% (- 4.8%). It will be shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of September, and the startup rate will gradually decline and then increase again in the second half of September [2][3] 4. Startup and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 107 yuan/ton (- 99 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 61.02% (+8.49%) - PS: The production profit is - 143 yuan/ton (- 59 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 61.90% (+0.90%) - ABS: The production profit is - 256 yuan/ton (- 71 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 70.00% (+1.00%), but the inventory pressure is large [3] 5. Startup and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1840 yuan/ton (- 135), and the startup rate is 86.21% (- 4.21%) - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25), and the startup rate is 69.00% (- 6.00%) - Aniline: The production profit is - 29 yuan/ton (+70), and the startup rate is 65.21% (- 2.75%) - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1391 yuan/ton (- 104), and the startup rate is 64.20% (+4.20%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of stronger inland than ports in the methanol market continues. The port inventory pressure remains high, but after the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port basis has slightly bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. However, the arrival pressure is still large, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan is announced. [2] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories is still low, and overall, the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for ports to flow back to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [26][31] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The port total inventory of methanol is 1,550,330 tons (+122,675 tons), with the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 804,000 tons (+44,000 tons), Zhejiang ports at 285,500 tons (+43,200 tons), and Guangdong ports at 274,000 tons (+7,000 tons). The downstream MTO开工率 is 81.57% (-3.15%). The inland factory inventory is 342,560 tons (-4,523 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 221,300 tons (-3,700 tons). [1][2] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report lists various regional price differences, such as the difference between Lubei and Northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 23 yuan/ton (+0), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 385 yuan/ton (-8). [2] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether. [52][56] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low. - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: After the export window, carry out reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transactions improved. After the manufacturers raised the quotes, the transactions were average. Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,686 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,660 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 36 yuan/ton (+7), in Henan it was - 26 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu it was - 36 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 16, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 16, 2025, the urea production profit was 120 yuan/ton (+10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of September 16, 2025, the export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+0). September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 16, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.82% (+4.74%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 55.38% (- 3.60%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.88 days (+0.47). Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 16, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1327 million tons (+37,700 tons), and the port sample inventory was 549,400 tons (- 71,500 tons). The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate meeting outcome may lead to price corrections in the electrolytic aluminum market, but consumption is expected to strengthen seasonally. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking rhythm [6]. - The alumina market has a persistent oversupply situation. Although the previous low - price valuation led to a short - term rebound, there is still no strong impetus for a continuous rise [7][8]. - In the aluminum alloy market, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and factors such as contract spreads, tariff policies, and macro factors may affect the market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton; Central China A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 180 yuan/ton; and Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,995 yuan/ton, closing at 20,975 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 16, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 637,000 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 75,734 tons, an increase of 649 tons; and the LME aluminum inventory was 483,775 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On September 16, 2025, the alumina price in Shanxi was 3,005 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,970 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,040 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,190 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 335 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,945 yuan/ton, closing at 2,979 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 1.81% from the previous trading day [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On September 16, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,500 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 27 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting outcome may cause price corrections, but consumption is expected to strengthen seasonally. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and de - stocking rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and the short - term rebound is due to low - price valuation and short - covering. There is no strong impetus for a continuous rise [7][8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and factors such as contract spreads, tariff policies, and macro factors may affect the market [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to single - side investment, and suggests paying attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse arbitrage after the restart of the main PDH for inter - period investment. There is no suggestion for cross - variety investment [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the propylene spot price to decline. There are still some units with reduced load or under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has declined month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may limit the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene main contract closing price is 6445 yuan/ton (+3), the propylene East China spot price is 6450 yuan/ton (-125), the propylene North China spot price is 6550 yuan/ton (-150), the propylene East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (-128), and the propylene North China basis is 105 yuan/ton (-153) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 197 US dollars/ton (-10), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (-2), and the import profit is - 280 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - No specific profit data are mentioned in the text other than the import profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (+75); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 67 yuan/ton (+46); octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 69 yuan/ton (+4); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 535 yuan/ton (+50); acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+34); phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-09-17 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9482.00元/吨，环比变化+60元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8418.00 元/吨，环比变化+42.00元，幅度+0.50%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约10053.00元/吨，环比变化+153.00元，幅度+1.55%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9410.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.18%，现货基差P01+-72.00，环比变 化+50.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8580.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.70%，现货基差Y01+162.00， 环比变化+18.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10270.00元/吨，环比变化+160.00元，幅度+1.58%，现货基差 OI01+217.00，环比变化+7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印度植物油生产商协会（IVPA）主席Sudhakar Rao Desai指出，乙醇生产导致DDGS（蒸馏干 谷物与可溶性物）成为家禽业更便宜的饲料选择，给豆粕带来替代压力。美国农业部报告预计，印度豆粕出口量 可能从140万吨降至90 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential downward pressure in the medium - term and upward potential in the long - term [2][3] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production situation and domestic sales performance affect the price, with short - term downward pressure but limited further decline space [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains, and demand is weak, with short - term prices expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,895 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,214 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of September 14, the boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the harvest rate was 9%, 1 point slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 13 points higher than last year and 10 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume, and adjusted down initial and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand data changed little, with only a slight increase in production. The new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and commercial inventory is at a historical low. The supply is still tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally in the peak season. However, new - year production is expected to increase, and hedging pressure may be high during the new cotton listing [2] Strategy - If the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season fails, Zhengzhou cotton may fall. In the long - term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price center may rise after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,547 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - Market information: Brazilian mid - southern sugarcane yield in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the sugar extraction rate decreased by 2.9%. German beet sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to drop by 4.9% [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's mid - southern region increased in August, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. However, the ethanol price provides support, and the downward space is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales in August were poor, and the market worried about syrup policy relaxation. The domestic price is under downward pressure, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline [5][6] Strategy - Adopt an approach of waiting for a rebound after bottom - grinding in the short - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,068 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market information: The import wood pulp spot market had more price increases than decreases, with some prices adjusted by 10 - 150 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced production cuts, but it hasn't significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year, and wood pulp imports are expected to decline. Port inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. Domestic demand is weak, with paper mills' raw material procurement cautious and low operating rates [7] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short - term [8]