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2025年期货市场展望:玻璃需求持续走弱,关注供应端变化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate policy support weakened in the first half of the year, and the real - estate completion end significantly dragged down glass consumption. The demand for individual home - improvement orders also weakened. Although the production and sales of automobiles maintained high positive growth, especially automobile exports, which supported glass consumption in the automotive sector, it still couldn't offset the drag from the real - estate completion end. From the Spring Festival to now, glass has experienced a significant downward trend, with the glass 09 contract falling from a maximum of 1499 yuan/ton to the current 977 yuan/ton, a decline of 35% [7][8][37]. - The core point of contention in the market for glass consumption in the second half of the year is the change in the real - estate industry. The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption. The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1% [7][8][38]. - In the first half of this year, the production profit of float glass was relatively stable, with the loss of natural - gas - made glass narrowing, and the profits of coal - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass rebounding slightly. Recently, the losses of natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass have slightly increased. Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit of about 80 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red, with losses of - 180 yuan/ton and - 128 yuan/ton respectively. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2% [7][9][47]. - The glass inventory increased rapidly after the Spring Festival, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply in the short term. It is advisable to wait for changes in the supply side and further trading opportunities [7][62][71]. - In the short term, with no real - estate stimulus policies and no large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [11][72]. Summary According to the Catalog 2025 First - Half Glass Market Review - **Real - estate industry cooling, completion declining year - on - year**: Since 2022, the real - estate "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" policy has driven the continuous improvement of the real - estate completion end. However, since 2024, the improvement has ended, and the real - estate completion data has shown significant negative growth for two consecutive years. As of May 2025, the cumulative housing completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, among which the residential completion area was 133 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6% [16]. - **Limited real - estate policy support, weakening demand for individual home - improvement orders**: In the first half of 2025, a series of real - estate policies were introduced, but the demand for individual home - improvement orders continued to weaken. After a brief rebound in March, the second - hand housing market returned to a downward trend, and only some first - tier cities showed relatively high second - hand housing transactions, which also gradually weakened. Since September 2024, the active second - hand housing transactions have not driven the sales growth of building materials and home furnishing stores, and the national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index has also declined [18][26]. - **New - energy vehicles maintaining good momentum, supporting automotive glass consumption**: From January to May this year, the cumulative national automobile production was 12.826 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, among which the cumulative new - energy vehicle production was 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. From January to May, the cumulative national automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [28]. 2025 Second - Half Glass Market Outlook - **Weak real - estate market, completion continuing to drag down glass consumption**: The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term. The real - estate completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption as new home sales have not improved, and the corresponding completion consumption has declined for two consecutive years [38][39]. - **Profit significantly compressed, glass supply uncertain**: Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red. In the first half of the year, the float glass profit was relatively stable, and the number of operating production lines decreased by only 3 compared with the beginning of the year, with the average daily melting volume maintained at about 157,000 tons. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline [47][56][71]. Supply - Demand Contradiction Exists, Inventory Rising Again - Affected by the decline in consumption, the production profit of float glass was compressed, and the output decreased. However, the decline in consumption far exceeded that in output. After the Spring Festival, the glass inventory increased rapidly, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply [62]. Summary - The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1%. The float glass profit has been significantly compressed, and if the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2%. In the short term, glass still faces a certain degree of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to changes in the supply side and wait for trading opportunities. In the absence of real - estate stimulus policies and large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7][71][72].
农产品组行业研究报告:供应压力持续,价格重心下移
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Policy is a crucial factor affecting soybeans this year. With Brazil's soybean harvest, the domestic supply is abundant before the new US soybean season, and soybean meal prices are expected to remain weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure, and their prices may decline. Demand for feed is expected to increase in the fourth - quarter. The international soybean supply is loose, and future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [5][65] - **Corn**: The domestic corn supply is tight this year due to reduced production and imports. The market is affected by policies, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season corn production may be affected by disasters, and prices may weaken when new corn hits the market [7][106] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H1 Soybean Meal Market Review - **Price Review**: International and domestic soybean meal prices fluctuated widely in H1 2025, influenced by supply, trade policies, and geopolitics. US soybeans rose from 947 cents/bu to 1075 cents/bu in Q1 and then fell to 970 cents/bu in early April, later rising to around 1050 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal prices rose from 2616 yuan/ton to 3025 yuan/ton in February - March and reached a high of 3168 yuan/ton in early April, then declined [14][15][19] US Soybean Balance Sheet - **New - season Planting**: In 2025, the US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, a 4.2% year - on - year decrease due to last season's losses [21] - **Yield and Production**: The old - season US soybeans continued to accumulate inventory in 2024 - 25. New - season planting and early growth were smooth, with a 66% good - to - excellent rate as of June 29. Future weather and policies need attention [23][24] South American Soybean Balance Sheet - **Brazil**: USDA expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 175 million tons. This year's production was a record high, and the ending inventory increased. The weather is currently normal, but there is a risk of La Nina after October [31][33][36] - **Argentina**: The 2025 soybean production is expected to be 49 million tons, a historical average. The ending inventory slightly increased [38] Canadian Rapeseed Balance Sheet - The new - season Canadian rapeseed planting area decreased slightly, but the yield is expected to be high, and the ending inventory may reach 1.6 million tons. Export is uncertain, affected by China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations [43] Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Sino - US Trade**: Trade friction resumed this year. China's soybean imports mainly come from Brazil. If the 90 - day negotiation fails, it will affect domestic soybean supply after October and US soybean exports [46] - **China - Canada Trade**: Tariffs mainly affect Canadian rapeseed meal prices. Trade friction may change the international rapeseed trade flow [48][49] - **Imports and Inventory**: In May 2025, China imported 13.918 million tons of soybeans. As of June 30, soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons [50] - **Downstream Demand**: Since H2 2024, the pig industry's capacity has slowly recovered. Feed production increased by 10.6% in the first five months of this year, and soybean meal consumption increased by about 5% [58][62] Meal Market Outlook - The policy is crucial. Before the new US soybean season, the domestic supply is loose, and soybean meal prices will be weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure. Future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [65] 2024 Corn Market Review - **Price Review**: Corn prices oscillated and rose in H1 2025, from 2209 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2420 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 9.1% [66][70] International Corn Supply and Demand - **US**: In 2025/2026, the US corn planting area increased to 95.2 million acres. The total supply is expected to be 17.21 billion bushels. The new - season corn growth is good, but exports are affected by Sino - US trade relations [76] - **Brazil**: The new - season Brazilian corn planting area increased slightly. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 131 million tons [80] Domestic Corn Supply and Demand - **New - season Corn**: The current season's corn sales have ended, and the new - season corn is growing. Heilongjiang may be affected by low temperature and hail, and the impact on production needs further attention [83] - **Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn. From January to May, the cumulative import was 628,900 tons, a significant decrease [86] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the northern port inventory was about 2.724 million tons, and the southern feed grain inventory was about 1.889 million tons [91] - **Demand**: In June, the corn starch industry's operating rate was 51.93%. From January to July 3, starch, alcohol, and amino acid processing enterprises' corn consumption changed differently. Feed production increased in the first five months [95][102] Corn Market Outlook - Corn supply is currently tight, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season production may be affected, and prices may weaken when new corn is on the market. Attention should be paid to policy changes and new - season production [106]
2025年期货市场展望:合金产区长时间亏损,关注成本端变化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:37
华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年上半年,硅锰与硅铁市场整体呈现"前高后低"的价格走势。硅锰方面,在硅锰产能偏宽松,下游消费无大的增量情况下,预期 硅锰仍将呈低位震荡,锰矿供给和硅锰库存变化仍是市场关注焦点。硅铁方面,硅铁产量和需求仍有望正增长,硅铁整体库存压力不大。 硅铁供需仍有增长趋势,但是鉴于硅铁产能整体相对充足,行业竞争仍较为剧烈,预计硅铁受到产区电价、产业政策等影响呈震荡走势..... 合金产区长时间亏损,关注成本端变化 动,关注供给端变化 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3056360 投资咨询号:Z0016171 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 2025 年 07 月 06 日 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 期货研究报告 |铁合金半年报 2025-07-06 合金产区长时间亏损, ...
新能源、有色组行业贵金属半年报:万物皆变而黄金永存
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:36
期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 2025 年上半年,黄金表现依然靓丽,不过在进入 5 月后,随着市场风险情绪回升,美股转强而美联储对于降息的态度有相对偏谨慎的 情况下,黄金价格陷入震荡格局...... 万物皆变而黄金永存 新能源&有色组行业贵金属半年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 万物皆变而黄金永存 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号 F03114162 投资咨询号 Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 贵金属年度报告 2025-07-06 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3080232 投资咨询号:Z0016047 王育武 电话:021-60827969 邮箱:wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03114162 投资咨询号:Z0022466 投资咨询业务 ...
过剩格局未变,锂价或震荡探底
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 showed lower volatility compared to last year. Although short - term factors may disrupt the rhythm, the market still develops around its fundamentals. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. Before significant production cuts in the mining and lithium salt plants, the lithium carbonate market may continue the process of oscillating and bottom - hunting. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025. For industrial customers and investment institutions, they can seize the staged downward market [6][23][24]. - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the mining end, but the over - capacity of lithium salt is still large. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly and remains below 70,000 yuan/ton for a long time in the second half of 2025, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises are expected to gradually reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed. The total supply is expected to be 1.65 million tons of LCE, still in an oversupply pattern [8][24]. - On the demand side, new energy vehicles and energy storage are still the two main drivers of consumption growth. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 34.4% and 35.5%. In 2025, the domestic new energy vehicle production and sales data still maintained a high growth rate. It is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%, and global sales will reach about 23 million, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high, with an annual year - on - year growth rate of about 40%. Overall, the consumption growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to be about 22% [9][10]. - In terms of balance, the oversupply situation will continue in the second half of 2025, and the inventory pressure will continue to increase. It is expected that the annual oversupply will be 210,000 tons of LCE [11][12]. - Regarding inventory, smelters contribute the main inventory increase, and attention should be paid to the delivery inventory. It is expected that the lithium salt inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [13]. - Conclusion: The lithium carbonate price may continue to bottom - hunt. Although the supply - demand situation shows a double - increase pattern in 2025, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Due to the price drop, the supply growth rate may slow down, and the degree of oversupply will decrease. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [14]. Section Summaries Strategy Summary - In the first quarter of 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were relatively stable. The 2505 contract rebounded from 77,800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 81,680 yuan/ton, a 4.99% increase, and then fell to 74,160 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, the demand growth rate declined, and the industry returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The 2507 contract fell from 74,500 yuan/ton in early April to the annual low of 58,460 yuan/ton, a 21.53% decrease. Later, with the extension of the US tariff exemption and the call to eliminate backward production capacity, the price rebounded to around 64,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 10% increase [5]. Price Review - In the first half of 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price first rose and then fell. In the first quarter, it was relatively stable. In the second quarter, it was affected by the Sino - US tariff war and demand slowdown, and the price dropped significantly. In June, with the relaxation of the tariff war and the support of energy storage exports, the price rebounded [5][22]. Market Outlook - In the second half of 2025, the overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises may reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed [23][24]. Supply - side Situation - From January to June 2025, China's domestic lithium carbonate production was about 429,600 tons, a 43.91% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to be about 900,000 tons, a 33% increase. Lithium hydroxide production was about 142,200 tons, a 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The overall production is expected to continue to increase. The over - capacity of lithium salt smelting is large, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production or stop production [42]. Lithium Mine Production Cuts, Start - ups, and Cost Tracking - **Resource - end Increment**: In 2025, the total supply of the resource end is expected to be 1.57 million tons of LCE. Africa, domestic mines, and salt lakes, as well as South American salt lakes and Australian mines, will contribute to the increment [47]. - **Production Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate**: The cost of using salt lakes for production is relatively low, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. Self - owned mine enterprises have a cash cost of 40,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing ore is relatively high, and most of the time this year, they are in a loss situation. It is expected that the global lithium mine oversupply situation will be difficult to change, and the lithium mine price may further decline [50][51]. Import - Export - From January to May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 2.92 million tons, a 39.97% year - on - year increase. Lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a 15.3% increase, and the annual import is expected to reach 250,000 tons. Exports were 2,100 tons, and the annual export is expected to be 4,000 tons. Lithium hydroxide exports were 21,600 tons, a 59.9% year - on - year decrease, and imports were 6,470 tons, with a significant year - on - year increase [61][63]. Consumption - side - **Lithium Consumption**: In 2025, lithium consumption is mainly driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage. From January to May, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, while the growth of ternary materials was limited. In the battery end, the sales and exports of power and other batteries increased significantly. In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high [72][74][77]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to have an annual oversupply of 60,000 tons, and the global lithium resource is expected to have an annual oversupply of 220,000 tons of LCE [107]. Inventory - As of the end of June, the total lithium carbonate inventory reached 136,800 tons, with smelters contributing the main increase. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [114].
2025年期货市场展望:纯碱供需宽松,价格继续承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:32
华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年上半年纯碱价格重心下移,纯碱供需持续宽松,使得各环节库存均大幅增加。展望 2025 年下半年,纯碱产能仍然面临过剩局面, 纯碱总库存将继续呈现高位上行态势,除非部分高成本产能出清,否则纯碱价格将持续下探成本..... 纯碱供需宽松,价格继续承压 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3056360 投资咨询号:Z0016171 刘国梁 从业资格号: F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号: F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 期货研究报告 | 纯碱半年报 2025-07-06 纯碱供需宽松,价格继续承压 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邮箱:wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 邝志鹏 邮箱:kuan ...
通胀预期的兑现路径探讨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:02
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].
供增需弱延续,宏观扰动增多
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 08:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].
燃料油半年报:结构性因素仍存,燃料油市场或面临再平衡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 08:04
华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 展望下半年,高硫燃料油市场三季度仍受到旺季发电端需求的支撑,但随着未来夏季结束、发电厂需求回落,且欧佩克增产将逐步释放更 多供应,高硫油市场需要其他需求的增量来完成市场再平衡,考虑到航运端需求面临关税风险、脱硫塔数量增长进度放缓,因此值得期待 的是炼厂端的需求回升,而这需要裂解价差进一步回调来带动燃料油加工利润修复,从而刺激炼厂端的采购增加...... Energy 能源板块研究 Research 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号:F3023104 投资咨询号:Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号:F3049404 投资咨询号:Z0015842 结构性因素仍存,燃料油市场或面临再平衡 核心观点 研究院 能源组 研究员 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 燃料油半年报 2025-07-06 潘翔 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3023104 投资咨询号:Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3049404 投资咨 ...
化工半年报:供需格局宽松,关注出口动态
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 07:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation in the urea futures price in the second half of the year [2][10] 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **Cost**: In the first half of the year, coal prices continued a weak trend, and natural gas prices remained stable. Urea upstream enterprises had decent profits, and factory operating rates were high under the support of policies. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak but with limited downside. Urea production profits will decline due to new capacity [7] - **Supply**: In the first half, urea capacity increased by 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. More new devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the second half. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons [7] - **Import and Export**: In the first half, the total volume of urea import and export remained low. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, with a set export volume of about 2 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [7] - **Demand**: In the first half, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. Industrial demand declined, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season [8] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [9][82] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Review - In early 2025, the urea price rose slightly due to agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand. In March, the market was stable as reserve supplies were released. In the second quarter, the market was affected by US tariff policies, Middle - East geopolitical situations, and export policies. The price oscillated between 1,600 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton [17] Urea Capacity Release - **Urea Production**: In the first half of 2025, urea production was about 35.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons. The new capacity in the first half was 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The full - year capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.6%, reaching 80.43 million tons/year [25] - **2025 China Urea Production Plan**: The total new capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.03 million tons/year, with some already put into operation and others planned for the second half, mainly in the fourth quarter [33] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - **Urea Production Profit**: In the first half of 2025, coal prices were weak, and natural gas prices were stable. Enterprises had good profits, and the operating rate was high. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak, and production profits will decline. Pay attention to the impact of coal price rebounds on costs and the change in upstream device loads caused by profit compression [34] - **Urea Actual Operating Rate and Forecast**: In the first half of 2025, the national average operating rate was 86.2%, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The coal - based urea operating rate increased significantly. In the second half, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high, but the operating rate may decline slightly due to new capacity [47] Urea Import and Export - **Total Urea Import and Export Volume**: In the first half of 2025, the total import and export volume was low. From January to May, the import volume was 1,262.5 tons, and the export volume was 11,000 tons. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, and exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [52] - **Urea Export Profit**: In the first half of 2025, international urea prices were higher than domestic ones, but exports were restricted by policies. Since June, due to the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, international prices have risen significantly, and export profits have increased. It is expected that the export volume will increase in the third quarter [57] Urea Consumption and Inventory - **Urea Downstream Consumption**: In the first half of 2025, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season. The compound fertilizer operating rate was 41.6% in the first half, and it is expected to recover. The melamine operating rate was 63.6% in the first half, and industrial demand is not expected to improve significantly in the second half [66] - **Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of the end of June, enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [82]