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纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯港口库存进一步加快累积-20251230
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 06:05
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas refined oil crack spreads remain weak, and the blending logic has limited support for aromatics. The price difference between US and South Korea for pure benzene may gradually peak [3] - The arrival of pure benzene in China has increased, and the downstream提货 is weaker during the off - season. The port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly to a high level [3] - The start - up rates of styrene and aniline have slightly increased from the bottom, the start - up of CPL remains at a low level compared to the same period, while the start - up rates of phenol and adipic acid are acceptable. With the low processing fee of pure benzene, the domestic start - up rate of pure benzene is still low [3] - The styrene port inventory changed little at the beginning of the week, and the original inventory accumulation cycle was postponed. On one hand, it was due to the short - term maintenance of Bohua, and on the other hand, it was boosted by the previous styrene export orders. The downstream提货 during the off - season is still average. The downstream start - up rate has a slight rebound. The start - up rate of EPS has a slight increase during the off - season, the start - up of PS has increased again after the inventory decline, and the start - up of ABS continues to be at a low level due to continuous inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures 1 - 4 show the basis and inter - period spreads of pure benzene, including the relationship between the main pure benzene basis and the main pure benzene futures contract price, the main pure benzene contract basis, the pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [8][13] - Figures 5 - 7 show the basis and inter - period spreads of styrene, including the relationship between the main styrene basis and the main styrene contract, the EB main contract basis, and the styrene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [14][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures 8 - 9 show the processing fees of naphtha and the price difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan [23] - Figures 10 - 17 show the production profits of styrene non - integrated plants and the price differences between different regions of pure benzene and styrene, including the price differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, and similar price differences for styrene, as well as the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [25][30][34][40] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rates - Figures 18 - 19 show the inventory in East China ports and the start - up rate of pure benzene [42] - Figures 20 - 23 show the inventory (including port, commercial, and factory inventory) and the start - up rate of styrene in East China [45][47] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures 24 - 29 show the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, which are downstream products of styrene [55][57][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures 30 - 37 show the start - up rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid [65][67][86] - Figures 38 - 44 show the production profits of other related downstream products such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [78][88][89] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy is provided [4] - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [4] - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602, short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4]
豆一供需牵制行情偏稳,花生上下受限震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the short - term soybean price is expected to remain stable, with local narrow - range adjustments due to quality and regional supply - demand differences. The market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and policy acquisitions at the bottom, but high prices restrict downstream acceptance. Key factors to track include grass - roots grain sales progress, state - reserve acquisition rhythm, and pre - holiday terminal restocking [2] - For peanuts, in the short term, the price has limited room to fall due to cost support, but lacks the power to rise continuously because of insufficient downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Future trends depend on the actual purchasing sentiment and rhythm changes of downstream enterprises [5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4156.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 yuan/ton (+0.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 84, down 28 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean clean - grain prices rose, and high - protein tower - grain prices were stable. The impact of state - reserve auctions and acquisitions was neutral, and the market shipment rhythm slowed down. Southern soybeans had average quality and sufficient supply, with weak downstream demand and stable prices. In the sales areas, processing enterprises were cautious in purchasing [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2603 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8064.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 942.00, up 28.00 (-2.89%) month - on - month. The national average price of common peanuts was basically stable, and each region had different price ranges. The contract procurement average price of oil - mill peanuts was 7288 yuan/ton, with different quotes from each oil mill [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]
上游价格持续分化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:47
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the continuous price differentiation in the upstream industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. Upstream prices show a trend of divergence, with some rising and some falling, while the mid - stream and downstream industries have their own development characteristics such as low - level operation in some mid - stream industries and recovery in some downstream industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, including deepening fair competition governance, breaking administrative monopolies, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, promoting the development quality of business entities, and strengthening the regular supervision of the platform economy [1] - **Service Industry**: The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented from January 1, 2026, with 935 items of goods subject to import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates, and new national sub - items added. Also, regulations on the deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses for certain industries have been announced [2] Industry Overview - **Upstream**: In the chemical industry, PTA prices are rising; in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper prices are rising; in the energy industry, LNG prices are falling [3] - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product start - up rates are at a low level, power plant coal consumption is increasing, and asphalt start - up is in the off - season [4] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up, and the number of domestic flights is increasing [4] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On December 29, the spot prices of corn, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork increased year - on - year, while the spot price of eggs decreased [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot price of线材 increased year - on - year, while the spot prices of rebar and iron ore decreased slightly [37] - **Non - metals**: On December 29, the spot price of natural rubber increased year - on - year, while the spot price of glass and the China Plastic City price index decreased [37] - **Energy**: On December 29, the spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased slightly year - on - year, while the spot price of liquefied natural gas and coal price decreased [37] - **Chemical Industry**: On December 29, the spot price of PTA increased year - on - year, while the spot price of polyethylene decreased [37] - **Real Estate**: On December 29, the cement price index and the building materials composite index decreased slightly year - on - year, and the concrete price index remained unchanged [37]
市场存在惜售,猪价延续涨势
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:42
农产品日报 | 2025-12-30 市场存在惜售,猪价延续涨势 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11715元/吨,较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨,幅度+0.60%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.47元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.29元/公斤,现货基差 LH03+755,较前交易日变动+580;江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.90元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH03+1185,较前交易日变动+890; 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.65元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤,现货基差LH03+935,较前交易日变动+500。 据农业农村部监测,12月29日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.66,比上周五下降0.46个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为132.47,比上周五下降0.53个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.67元/公斤,比上周五上升1.4%; 牛肉66.02元/公斤,比上周五上升0.4%;羊肉62.96元/公斤,比上周五上升0.5%;鸡蛋7.35元/公斤,比上周五下降 1.1%;白条鸡17.54元/公斤,比上周五下 ...
短期供需小幅收紧,期价震荡整理
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:42
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term supply and demand of propylene are slightly tightened, and the futures price is in a range - bound consolidation. The supply pattern remains loose, but the supply pressure in the main regions has eased. The demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure. The cost support has increased recently, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the shutdown of PDH units [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure The report presents data on the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, Shandong basis, contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05), and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China, with data sources from Tonghuashun and Steel Union, and the research institute of Huatai Futures [1][5][7]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate It includes information on propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking of propylene, as well as capacity utilization rates of PDH, methanol - to - olefins, and crude oil refineries. The data sources are mainly from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [21][24][31]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate It shows the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone. The data sources are from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [37][38][39]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory The report provides data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory, with data sources from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [59].
成交破两万亿,沪指九连阳
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the pre - holiday market, the scale of ETFs shows a continuous expansion trend, while the stock positions decline. The two effects offset each other, and the market is expected to mainly experience oscillatory recovery before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: The State Council Tariff Commission will implement the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan" on January 1, 2026. Next year, China will apply temporary import tariff rates lower than the most - favored - nation tariff rates to 935 commodities. The total number of tariff items will increase to 8,972. Overseas, US President Trump said he will announce the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman at an appropriate time, criticized Fed Chairman Powell and the Fed's building renovation, and is considering suing Powell for incompetence [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index had a nine - day winning streak, rising 0.04% to close at 3,965.28 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most sector indices declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and banking sectors leading the gains, and the non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and power equipment sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.51% to 48,461.93 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: In terms of basis, the basis of stock index futures declined. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [1]. Macro Economic Charts - Charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][7] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to 3,965.28, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13,537.10, the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% to 3,222.61, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38% to 4,639.37, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.35% to 3,034.63, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.38% to 7,430.61, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.15% to 7,594.16 [13]. - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 96,159 (down 22,687), and the open interest was 275,855 (down 12,050) [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 8.57 (down 8.33) [40]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 10.00, with a change of + 5.00 [44].
年末关注持仓下降而可能带来的价格回调风险
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of silver and copper have risen significantly, deviating from the fundamentals. Due to the short - term supply bottleneck, the price may not fall immediately. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the reduction of year - end positions. Downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at the current copper price and not over - hedge excessively. If the price falls to the range of 94,000 yuan/ton to 95,000 yuan/ton, they can increase the intensity of buying hedging. Arbitrage should be postponed, and options should sell put options [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 98,310 yuan/ton and closed at 98,860 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 97,020 yuan/ton and closed at 96,060 yuan/ton, down 2.83% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the Shanghai copper spot market was in a discount pattern. The quotation range was from a discount of 400 yuan/ton to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and the average premium increased slightly. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the short - term large - discount situation was expected to continue [2]. Important Information Summary - In terms of the Fed, Trump criticized Powell and considered suing him. Geopolitically, Trump met with Zelensky, and both sides said the talks had made progress but did not make major announcements [3]. Mine End - Aeris Resources received approval to develop the Constellation copper - gold project in the Cobar Basin, Australia. The project has proven and probable ore reserves of 2.3 million tons and a total mineral resource of 7.6 million tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Since last week, the average price of Yangshan copper premium bill of lading was 53.4 US dollars/ton, up 4.4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The average price of warehouse receipts was 53.6 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price was 11 US dollars/ton, down 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week. As of December 24, the import loss was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The Yangshan copper premium was expected to strengthen after a short - term stability [5]. Consumption - In the week of December 27, 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points month - on - month. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to drop to 55.28%, and that of cable enterprises to 60.35% [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by - 1,550 tons to 154,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 7,231 tons to 65,878 tons. On December 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Related Data - The report also provides data on TC price, SMM1 copper premium and discount, refined - scrap price difference, copper import profit and loss, copper main contract position and trading volume, etc. It also shows the price and basis data of copper at different times (today, yesterday, last week, one month) [8][27][28][29]
贵金属价格回调,长线看多逻辑不改
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market is currently volatile. The significant correction in silver prices may suppress gold prices, but the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 17,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,200 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee at an appropriate time and has criticized Fed Chair Powell and the Fed's building renovation. He is considering suing Powell for incompetence. Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress" but did not make any major announcements. Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue remains difficult and must ultimately be decided by the Ukrainian people [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1015.38 yuan/gram and closed at 1007.18 yuan/gram, down 0.90% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1004.72 yuan/gram and closed at 975.80 yuan/gram, down 3.12% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 18,215.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,201.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,328,363 lots, and the open interest was 216,399 lots. During the night session, it opened at 18,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,237 yuan/kilogram, down 5.32% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 29, 2025, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, down 1.8 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.66%, up 0.5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On December 29, 2025, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 9,083 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,516 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 502,157 lots, up 4.22% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 31,114 lots, and the short positions decreased by 30,969 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 4,930,646 lots, down 14.05% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 1,071.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,391 tons, down 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 29, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -10.75 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,735.58 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 55.34, down 4.27% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 64.27, up 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 57,238 kilograms, up 78.16% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,602,424 kilograms, up 106.00% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,280 kilograms [7].
消费转淡铝合金相对偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Consumption of electrolytic aluminum is shifting from peak season to off - season, with spot discounts widening, and social inventory rising due to increased arrivals. High - frequency fundamental data restricts the upside of aluminum prices. In the long run, overseas power costs may lead to potential sudden production cuts, and with the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in China, the decline in aluminum prices is limited. Consider the arbitrage between SHFE aluminum and aluminum alloy [6]. - After the absolute price of alumina rises, it's difficult to ship old warehouse receipts in Xinjiang, and the regular tender procurement of electrolytic aluminum plants has stopped. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the long - term supply of ore is sufficient, so the ore price may be under long - term pressure. The pattern of oversupply is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is sufficient, and the winter storage expectation is low [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminum Spot - On December 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 22,490 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 22,410 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed - 10 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 29, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 22,350 yuan/ton, closed at 22,570 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,980 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 618,625 lots, and the open interest was 289,255 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 645,000 tons, a change of 28,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 78,455 tons, a change of 1,396 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 519,250 tons, a change of - 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,665 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,690 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 29, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,729 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,308,863 lots, and the open interest was 396,675 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,400 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on SHFE aluminum and short on aluminum alloy [9]
下游库存维持高位,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 05:36
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal market is experiencing high downstream inventory, causing the price to fluctuate. The 05 contract price is moving weakly in line with the US soybean price due to ample domestic supply, high inventory, and strong South American harvest expectations. However, high import costs and pre - and post - Spring Festival shutdown expectations provide some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [1][2] - In the corn market, supply - side trading is sluggish with low trader enthusiasm and limited arrivals. On the demand side, feed companies are mostly in a wait - and - see mode after restocking, and deep - processing enterprises are making just - in - time purchases with stable production and sales. With farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream wait - and - see attitudes, future attention should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2774 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous day. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong had spot prices of 3100 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton, and 3070 yuan/ton respectively. Crop expert Michael Cordonnier estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 1.77 billion tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic supply is ample, and the 05 contract price is weak due to high inventory and South American harvest expectations, but there is some price support [2] Corn - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2249 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day. As of December 23, 77.7% of Argentina's 2025/26 corn was planted. As of December 25, Ukraine had harvested 94% of its planned grain area [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply - side trading is light, and demand - side players are mostly in a wait - and - see mode. Corn spot prices are expected to adjust [4][5]