Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report predicts that the oil market will face a significant surplus next year, and the supply - surplus situation will be more severe than previously expected. The market's pessimistic sentiment is aggravated, and there is no sign of a rebound in the short term [1][2] - The hardening of stances between China and the US before the summit and the resurgence of concerns about the trade war, along with the IEA's bearish view, have put pressure on the fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's November - delivery light crude oil futures fell 79 cents to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures dropped 93 cents to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 1.73% at 444 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 28 - month high in the past four weeks. As of October 12, the four - week average of crude oil exports from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2023. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have increased, with at least 28 attacks since early August [1] - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil inventories are set to rise, and the supply - surplus situation in the oil market will be more severe. Global oil supply is expected to grow by 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, higher than previous forecasts. Global oil demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day this year and 699,000 barrels per day next year [1] - Kazakhstan produced 75.7 million barrels of oil from January to September [1] Investment Logic - The hardening of stances between China and the US before the summit and the IEA's bearish view on the oil market have led to a combination of macro and fundamental factors putting pressure on the fundamentals, with no short - term rebound drivers [2] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clearer. Attention should be paid to the actual freight - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. The final delivery and settlement price is expected to be around 1130 - 1140 [5][6]. - For the December contract, since it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The trading rhythm involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation of price - increase letters [6]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [7]. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upward. There is no arbitrage strategy at present [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of October 14, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 66,064.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 69,843.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1464.40, 1150.00, 1318.80, 1450.00, 1136.20, and 1674.10 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price - increase letters. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK43 quote is 1095/1830, and WEEK44 is 1080/1800. HPL plans to increase the price to 1200/2000 after October 15 and has different price quotes for different periods in November [1]. - Some shipping companies have adjusted their prices in the second half of October. For example, OOCL in the OA alliance lowered its price to 1850 US dollars/FEU, YML in the PA alliance to 1700 US dollars/FEU, and HPL in the Gemini alliance to 1935 US dollars/FEU [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - From the remaining three weeks of October to December, the average weekly capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In October, the average weekly capacity is 276,100 TEU, in November it is 302,800 TEU, and in December it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3]. - As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.704 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU [8]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has imposed sanctions on Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. and its 5 US - related subsidiaries. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided in the given text about this part, only some related figure references are given.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] Core Views - Cotton: The new - year global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased short - term supply pressure and demand - side pressure. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, but the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short term, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. In China, the typhoon has affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, and the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [5][6] - Pulp: The global pulp supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply pattern is still loose. The weak demand, especially in China, is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [1] - Market Info: Pakistan's cotton harvest is accelerating, with an expected total output of 930,000 - 1,008,000 tons, and the new cottonseed price is falling [1] Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US federal government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, but the ginneries' purchase is cautious. The new cotton purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and the new - year production increase expectation suppress the cotton price, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Market Info: Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October, a 9.45% increase from last year [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil increased significantly in the first half of September, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - Zheng sugar: The domestic peak - season sales are poor, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The typhoon has affected sugarcane production in some areas [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The typhoon - affected sugarcane production adds uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, but the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 4846 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+ 0.08%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [7] - Market Info: The import wood pulp spot price was mostly stable, with some increases [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions were poor in September. The domestic port inventory is high, and the supply pattern is still loose [8] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [8] Strategy - Neutral. The macro - situation is bearish, and the pulp fundamentals are not improving. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cost side collapse continues to drag down the propylene futures market. Although the spot price has slightly rebounded due to upstream price - cuts for sales and increased downstream purchasing at low prices, the futures price is still under pressure. The supply side has high pressure despite more maintenance, the demand side has limited improvement, and the cost side is weak due to the decline of international oil prices and propane prices. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market News and Important Data - **Propylene Prices and Basis**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6084 yuan/ton (-93), the spot price in East China is 6215 yuan/ton (+30), and in North China is 6280 yuan/ton (+70). The basis in East China is 131 yuan/ton (+123), and in North China is 196 yuan/ton (+163) [1]. - **Propylene Production and Related Indicators**: The propylene operating rate is 75% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 208 US dollars/ton (+5), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 131 US dollars/ton (+24), the import profit is - 423 yuan/ton (-71), and the in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520) [1]. - **Propylene Downstream**: The operating rates and production profits of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone have changed. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 40% (+2.29%), and the production profit is - 110 yuan/ton (-125) [1]. II. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: During the festival, some PDH units such as Lihuayi Weiyuan and Hebei Haiwei stopped for maintenance, and some units have maintenance plans. However, the supply has increased after the resumption of production of some major factories in Shandong before the festival, and the supply pressure is still high [2]. - **Demand Side**: Propylene has fallen to a phased low, and downstream buyers have started to purchase at low prices, improving the trading atmosphere. However, the demand for PP and propylene oxide is still weak [2]. - **Cost Side**: International oil prices are under pressure due to weak demand and tariff disturbances, and the price of propane in the external market has also dropped significantly, which has dragged down the propylene futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply [2]. III. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell for hedging [3]. - **Inter - period**: Go for a reverse spread when PL01 - 02 is high [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [3]. IV. Catalog - based Chart Information - **Propylene Basis Structure**: Includes charts of the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, etc. [6][9][11] - **Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate**: Involves charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene operating rate, PDH production gross profit, etc. [15][23][25] - **Propylene Import and Export Profit**: Contains charts of the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] - **Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate**: Covers charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, etc. [39][41][44] - **Propylene Inventory**: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester industry chain is weak due to the continuation of the China - US game. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the market is affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, production capacity changes, and demand trends [2][3][5]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging, long PF processing fees at low levels, and conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. on October 14, 2025, in response to the US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1]. Market Analysis - **Cost Side**: During the China - US trade war, the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. Crude oil prices dropped sharply due to the renewed tariff war threat from the US, but there were some signs of easing later [2]. - **PX**: China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level. With the restart of overseas units, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponement of PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some units have weakened the PX supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter [2][5]. - **TA**: The PTA spot processing fee has been repaired but is still suppressed. The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new - unit launches, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [3][5]. - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (unchanged from the previous period). The demand for filament yarn improved before the National Day, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement needs attention [3]. - **PF**: The spot production profit is 300 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials [4]. - **PR**: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - grade chips is 509 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - grade chip factories has increased, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the pressure of new - unit launches [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging [5]. - **Cross - Variety**: Long PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [6]. - **Cross - Period**: Conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [6]. Graphical Data - **Price and Basis**: Includes TA and PX contract price trends, basis, and cross - period spreads [10][11]. - **Upstream Profits and Spreads**: Covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, and South Korean xylene isomerization and disproportionation profits [17][20]. - **International Spreads and Import - Export Profits**: Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene - naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [25][27]. - **Upstream PX and PTA Operation**: Shows the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33]. - **Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Presents the social inventory and warehouse receipts of PTA and PX [36][39][40]. - **Downstream Polyester Load**: Covers the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days of filament factories [48][50][59]. - **PF Detailed Data**: Includes the load, inventory, and profit - related data of polyester staple fiber [68][74][80]. - **PR Fundamental Detailed Data**: Involves the load, inventory, and processing fees of polyester bottle - grade chips [90][96][98].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality. In response to increased external pressure, the government has frequently proposed growth - stabilizing policies. China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, but exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter. [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st. [2] - The US government is in a shutdown, and the market has relatively underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - In the commodity market, gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors are worthy of attention. It is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: China's economic data in August showed signs of weakness. To cope with external pressure, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan were introduced. In September, exports and imports in US dollars both exceeded expectations. However, exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter due to high bases and Sino - US frictions. On October 14th, A - shares closed down, while some commodity futures rose. [1] - **Tariff Frictions**: Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated recently. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on imported products. China has also taken counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit. [2] - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government has been shut down for three weeks, and economic data release has been affected. Trump has threatened to fire federal employees during the shutdown. The market has underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - **Commodity Market**: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations with long - term supply constraints. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. Gold is expected to continue to strengthen, mainly driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [5]

贵金属板块成交13830.07亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.59%；持仓金额5297.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.88%；成 交持仓比为365.88%。 能源化工板块成交4076.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.90%；持仓金额4403.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.09%； 成交持仓比为82.44%。 农产品板块成交3337.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.99%；持仓金额5471.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.97%；成交 持仓比为59.63%。 流动性日报 | 2025-10-15 市场流动性概况 2025-10-14，股指板块成交11275.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.88%；持仓金额14028.33亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.30%；成交持仓比为78.80%。 国债板块成交5007.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.47%；持仓金额8090.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.00%；成交 持仓比为62.94%。 基本金属板块成交4911.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.52%；持仓金额5222.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.18%；成 交持仓比为87.10%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy for LPG is cautiously bearish, suggesting that previous short positions can be appropriately closed for profit, and short - term observation is recommended. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Group 2: Core View - After continuous declines, the LPG futures market has stabilized and rebounded. However, spot prices in various regions mainly declined yesterday. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, with abundant overseas supply and high exports from the Middle East and North America, which may further increase in the future. Downstream demand is less elastic than supply due to profit factors. There is still pressure in the LPG market. If the price drop drives the repair of chemical profits and increases buying, it may form new support. But considering the new uncertainties brought by the US tariff threat, short - term caution is advised [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices - On October 14, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4410 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3940 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4670 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] Imported Gas Prices - In the first half of November 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 530 US dollars/ton and 510 US dollars/ton respectively, down 2 US dollars/ton each, equivalent to 4144 yuan/ton and 3988 yuan/ton in RMB, down 15 yuan/ton and 14 yuan/ton respectively. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 524 US dollars/ton and 504 US dollars/ton respectively, down 3 US dollars/ton each, equivalent to 4097 yuan/ton and 3941 yuan/ton in RMB, down 23 yuan/ton and 22 yuan/ton respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about demand and the recovery of supply, the rubber price continues to be weak. Although the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply of BR is still supported, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,845 yuan/ton, a change of -95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,990 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,820 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of -150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In September 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in recent years [2] - In September 2025, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China was 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] - From January to August 2025, the export volume of Chinese rubber tires reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3] - According to QinRex data, from January to August 2025, the total export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, the automobile export volume was 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the RU basis was -595 yuan/ton (+45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 395 yuan/ton (-95), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -3,332 yuan/ton (+7.76), the NR basis was 936.00 yuan/ton (-18.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,250 yuan/ton (-50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was -700 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.65 Thai baht/kg (-0.30), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (-1.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.15 Thai baht/kg (+1.00) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (-17.50%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (-122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (-705) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the BR basis was -30 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton (-150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -2,196 yuan/ton (-100) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.69% (+4.15%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+0) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Due to the continuation of the Sino - US tariff game, concerns about the demand side resurface, and the supply is recovering. The domestic supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming looser, but the low valuation limits the downward space [6] - For BR, maintain a neutral view. There are still maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in China in October, and the supply is still supported. The supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short - term observation recommended [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short - term observation recommended [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.55% at 2,672 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.9% at 3,155 yuan/ton during the day [1] - The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a weak performance in the energy sector, with the FU and LU futures showing a weak trend. During the China - US tariff negotiation period, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable. Tightened supply in the Middle East and improved refinery demand have boosted the market, but the upward driving force and space are still limited and new variables are needed [1] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is operating weakly, with the external crack spread and monthly spread showing a downward trend. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and downstream bunker demand is weak. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and more sensitive to tariff frictions compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a weak performance in the energy sector, and the FU and LU futures are affected. During the tariff negotiation period, oil price volatility may increase [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are acceptable, but the upward space is limited. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with increased supply and weak demand [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short - term observation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short - term observation [2] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options) are not recommended [2]