Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the market liquidity overview of various sectors on November 28, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On November 28, 2025, the trading volume was 5526.47 billion yuan, a - 6.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 12815.44 billion yuan, a - 1.32% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.91% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 3074.93 billion yuan, a - 26.33% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 7370.43 billion yuan, a - 0.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 41.05% [1] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic metal: The trading volume was 3734.35 billion yuan, a - 16.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 6059.51 billion yuan, a + 1.05% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.06% [1] - Precious metal: The trading volume was 6064.64 billion yuan, a - 19.23% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4711.20 billion yuan, a + 3.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 201.81% [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 4240.84 billion yuan, a + 6.40% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4543.21 billion yuan, a - 0.02% change; the trading - holding ratio was 81.27% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 2918.64 billion yuan, a - 7.99% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 6072.60 billion yuan, a + 0.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.23% [1] 7. Black Building Material Plate - The trading volume was 2387.49 billion yuan, a + 15.73% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3541.71 billion yuan, a - 0.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 70.65% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is still some room for growth in iron ore consumption, but explosive growth is unlikely. The supply - demand of iron ore is expected to continue to shift towards looseness. In the case of a 0.1% increase in domestic crude steel consumption, the iron ore supply - demand surplus will exceed 20 million tons. Considering the finished product end, the surplus of iron elements is higher. If the annual average price in 2026 is calculated at $95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will further reduce the volume sent to China compared to this year, and the decline in production may be lower than this value, which will support iron ore prices and limit the downside space. Throughout the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate within a certain range, and the volatility may further decline [6]. - In 2025, the iron ore price showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to the 2024 average price of $109. The global iron ore supply was significantly lower than expected from January to October, leading to a reduction of 3.21 million tons in domestic port inventory. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly [7][8]. - In 2026, new global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs. Overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will grow by 0.1% and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. The supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Iron Ore Market Review - **Price Trend**: The iron ore price in 2025 showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to 2024 [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the iron ore main contract showed a volatile trend. Currently, it is still in a state of contango. After August, the spot performance was strong, and the futures fluctuated. Currently, the basis of PB powder main contract is at the median level in recent years [23]. - **Spread**: In the first half of 2025, the high - medium grade premium fluctuated downward. Subsequently, as steel mill profits were continuously compressed, the high - medium grade spread narrowed, and the medium - low grade spread widened [25]. 3.2 2025 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October 2025, overseas crude steel consumption increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 2.1% for the whole year. Overseas crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 0.5% for the whole year. From January to October, overseas total iron production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and iron ore consumption decreased by 3.68 million tons [28]. - **Domestic Demand**: As of October 2025, domestic crude steel production increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons for the whole year, an increase of 35.24 million tons. The consumption of scrap steel increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 3.7% for the whole year. Iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 47.28 million tons for the whole year [39]. - **Global Total Iron Production**: In 2025, global total iron production is expected to increase significantly. The proportion of China's total iron production in the global total iron production has rebounded [47]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to October 2025, domestic iron ore imports were 1.03 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.04 million tons. It is expected that the net import of domestic iron ore will increase by 1.3% or 15.36 million tons for the whole year [53]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From January to October, global iron ore consumption increased by 47.39 million tons, while supply increased by 3.01 million tons. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore in the second half of the year will shift from a tight pattern to a loose one [68]. 3.3 2026 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Outlook - **New Production Capacity**: In 2026, global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to expand, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs [10]. - **Overseas Consumption**: In 2026, overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%. Overseas iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 8.54 million tons [83]. - **Domestic Consumption**: In 2026, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 0.1%, and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. China's iron ore consumption is expected to increase by nearly 20.24 million tons, and imports are expected to increase by nearly 40.44 million tons [90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on the above conditions, the supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [91].

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场年度展望 俄乌和谈让市场产生了新的变量，但依然离不开制裁油与合规油之间的博弈，但我们预计今年年内达成的难度较大，但如果真的达成，导 致俄油制裁放松重新转化为合规油，那么对油市的影响毫无疑问是显著利空的。 二元结构下的油市新格局 Energy 能源板块研究 Research 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 2025 年 11 月 30 日 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 期货研究报告 | 原油年报 2025-11-30 二元结构下的油市新格局 策略摘要 由于西方制裁，原油市场划分为制裁油与合规油两个市场，制裁油包括原产 地俄罗斯、伊朗与委内瑞拉的原油，西方制裁涉及的主体包含但不限于出口商、 船东、油轮、贸易商、码头、炼厂等，这导致了制裁油的贸易在有限的主体中进 行，形成了一个相对封闭的链条。而当前基准原油的价格（WTI、Brent、Dubai） 代表着合规油的价格。在当前制裁逐步收紧的情况下，市场出现了新的态势。买 家在合规与经济性上在合规油与制裁油的采购上进行权衡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the PX market is expected to see both supply and demand increase, with the Chinese PX balance sheet likely to remain in a de - stocking state, though the de - stocking amplitude will narrow compared to 2025. Attention should be paid to the load - increasing situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical [4][5][13]. - In 2026, without new PTA capacity additions, PTA supply growth is expected to be less than demand growth, leading to continued de - stocking and potential low - level recovery of processing fees. However, the supply elasticity of PTA remains, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of devices under the recovery of processing fees [8][9][13]. - In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase. Assuming a 4.9% growth rate in polyester demand, MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, with the price center expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [11][12][14]. - In 2026, the new PF capacity will increase again. After the high - growth in 2025, the direct export of staple fiber in some regions is saturated, and the demand - side growth space is limited. The competition in the staple fiber industry is expected to intensify again, and the processing margin may be compressed [14]. - In 2026, although the production capacity growth of PR will further slow down, due to the previous high - speed supply growth, the processing fee of bottle chips is still under pressure. It is expected to have a slight improvement compared to 2025 but will still fluctuate in the range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **PX Balance Sheet Data** - Demand: Calculated simply based on the estimated PTA production [4]. - Production: In 2026, China's new PX capacity is planned to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. The actual new production capacity mainly comes from Liaoning Huajin Aramco's 2 million tons and Fujia Dahua's 0.6 million tons of transformation and expansion. The new capacity is expected to contribute about 1.2 million tons of production in 2026. The average operating rate of China's PX in 2025 is expected to be 87.1%, and in 2026, the PX production is expected to increase by about 2 million tons compared to 2025, with a growth rate of 5.3%, and the average operating rate is estimated at 89% [4]. - Import: In 2026, the import demand is expected to continue to grow, with an estimated import of about 9.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the import dependence will remain around 20% [5]. - Summary: In 2026, PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking amplitude will narrow [5]. - **PTA Balance Sheet Data** - Demand: In 2026, the new polyester capacity is planned to be about 4 million tons. The average operating rate of polyester in 2025 is expected to be around 90%, and in 2026, it is expected to rise slightly to 91%. The estimated polyester production in 2025 is 84.64 million tons, with a production growth rate of 4.9%. The non - polyester demand for PTA is expected to be about 2.88 million tons throughout the year [7]. - Production: In 2026, there are no PTA production capacity addition plans in China. However, the production of new devices put into operation in 2025 will gradually increase. It is expected that the total PTA production in 2026 will increase by about 2.9 million tons compared to 2025, with a production growth rate of 3.9%, and the average operating rate is expected to decline from 83% in 2025 to 81% [8]. - Net Export: In 2026, the PTA export volume is expected to decrease slightly compared to 2025 due to the increase in overseas supply [9]. - Summary: In 2026, without new production capacity additions, PTA supply growth is expected to be less than demand growth, and PTA will remain in a de - stocking state, with processing fees expected to recover from a low level [9]. - **MEG Balance Sheet Data** - Demand: Similar to PTA, in 2026, new polyester capacity is planned to be about 4 million tons, and the average operating rate of polyester is expected to rise slightly to 91%. The estimated polyester production in 2025 is 84.64 million tons, with a production growth rate of 4.9%. The non - polyester demand for EG is estimated to be about 1.65 million tons throughout the year [10]. - Domestic Capacity and Production: In 2026, China plans to put into operation 2.8 million tons of MEG capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.2%. The new capacity is expected to contribute about 0.95 million tons of production. The production of existing devices is expected to increase by about 1.25 million tons, and the overall domestic MEG production is expected to increase by about 1.8 million tons, with a production growth rate of 8.7% [11]. - Net Import: In 2026, the net import level is about 7.35 million tons, a slight decrease compared to 2025 [12]. - Summary: In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The annual price center is expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PX**: In 2026, PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking amplitude will narrow. Attention should be paid to the load - increasing situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. PXN is expected to be strong during the aromatics blending stockpiling and PX centralized maintenance periods and weak at other times [13]. - **PTA**: In 2026, without new production capacity additions, PTA is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, and processing fees are expected to recover from a low level. However, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of devices under the recovery of processing fees [13]. - **MEG**: In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The annual price center is expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [14]. - **PF**: In 2026, the new PF capacity will increase again. After the high - growth in 2025, the direct export of staple fiber in some regions is saturated, and the demand - side growth space is limited. The competition in the staple fiber industry is expected to intensify again, and the processing margin may be compressed [14]. - **PR**: In 2026, although the production capacity growth of PR will further slow down, due to the previous high - speed supply growth, the processing fee of bottle chips is still under pressure. It is expected to have a slight improvement compared to 2025 but will still fluctuate in the range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Strategies - **PX and PTA**: For the 05 contract, consider long - hedging on dips. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread opportunity in the inter - period spread and the opportunity to go long on PTA processing fees in the inter - variety spread. In 2026, there are no new PTA device additions, and downstream polyester still has new capacity additions, so the PTA supply - demand situation will improve. PX new devices will mainly be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PX is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, so the 5 - 9 positive spread opportunity can be considered [15]. - **MEG**: The annual - level unilateral price is expected to mostly operate in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton. The 01 contract is expected to be under pressure due to the new device commissioning, the 05 contract may have a rebound opportunity, and the 09 contract may be under pressure again due to the concentrated commissioning of devices [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel**: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - **Philippines**: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - **Sulfide Nickel Ore**: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - **Production**: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - **Nickel Intermediates**: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - **Price**: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - **Traditional Sectors**: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - **Lithium - Battery Industry**: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - **Nickel**: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the center of copper prices is likely to continue rising. However, with the TC remaining at -$40 per ton, mine - end disturbances may not be able to drive significant price increases. The demand side may have positive momentum under the "15th Five - Year Plan", and macro - factors and the strong gold price may make copper price fluctuations more difficult to predict. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 80,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The supply - demand gap of copper is expected to gradually widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028, at which time processing fees are expected to recover. Short - term copper prices are supported by the supply - demand gap, while in the medium - to - long term, they will depend more on the realization of terminal demand [10]. - In 2026, the copper terminal demand will show a multi - polar driven pattern with relatively stable power demand and potential surprises from the electronics sector. But in 2026 specifically, copper demand may only show a slight increase due to a short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and relatively weak real estate demand [15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - In 2025, copper prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, tight mineral supply, low processing fees, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the strong gold price pushed copper prices up. After that, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, copper prices dropped significantly around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the second half of the year, with loose macro - expectations, good demand in the AI and new energy fields, and supply disturbances such as the shutdown of Grasberg, the center of copper prices moved up again, and it entered a shock range at the end of the year [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Annual Mine - end Supply Disturbances and No Improvement in Mid - stream Smelting Profit Margins - In 2025, the TC price of imported copper concentrates continued to decline, reaching -$42.15 per ton by mid - November. Smelter profits mainly came from by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver. The TC price set by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in the middle of the year was $0 per ton, slightly higher than market expectations, highlighting the tight supply situation at the mine end [10][24]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the production of major global copper miners showed a structural tightening trend, with output generally declining. For example, BHP's copper concentrate production decreased slightly, and Southern Copper, Freeport, and Zijin Mining all had different degrees of production cuts due to factors such as grade decline and accidents [10][26]. - Although the processing fees were low, the strong prices of by - products supported the growth of domestic refined copper production. The expansion of smelting capacity was slightly faster than that of the mine end. In the future, the profit of the copper industry chain will continue to concentrate upstream. The supply - demand gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028 [10][32][35]. 3.2.2 Refined Ore Supply Constraints Suppress Smelter Profits, and Scrap Copper Supply Also Has Short - term Bottlenecks - From January to October 2025, domestic refined copper production was about 1.115 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12%. Domestic smelting maintained a high operating rate, relying on the strong prices of by - products and scrap copper to offset the decline in processing fees. In the future, the sustainability of this state depends on the realization of overseas mine production and the support of by - products and scrap copper [13][41]. - From January to September 2025, scrap copper production was 902,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. However, due to policy adjustments and import constraints, the supply of scrap copper was limited and there was a risk of a slight decline in the future [42]. 3.2.3 The Tight Spot Pattern in Shanghai and London Continues, and Copper Prices Are Prone to Rise and Difficult to Fall under Tariff Expectations - From January to October 2025, domestic electrolytic copper imports decreased by 6.14% year - on - year, while exports increased by 29.44% year - on - year. The Comex premium led to the migration of inventories from London and Shanghai to the US. The Shanghai and London markets were in a tight Back structure, and if tariffs were implemented, the tight pattern of Shanghai copper would be difficult to ease, and the overall copper price center would be prone to rise [46][48]. 3.3 Primary Processing - end Situation Overview 3.3.1 Copper Rods - Grid Rush Installation and Temporarily Tight Refined Copper Lead to a Recovery in Processing Fees - In July - September 2025, the wire and cable tenders of the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid increased by 18% year - on - year. Due to smelter maintenance, the production of 8 - mm copper rods decreased, and the processing fees rebounded from 550 yuan to 700 yuan. After that, the processing fees fell back to 600 - 650 yuan but were still higher than in 2024. In 2026, copper rod consumption may maintain positive growth, and the processing fee center may oscillate between 550 - 700 yuan [50][53]. 3.3.2 Copper Tubes - Air - conditioner Production Scheduling First High and Then Low, and Exports Rush to the "Tariff Window" - In July - August 2025, the production scheduling of household air - conditioners increased by 12%. In September, due to the possible increase in HVAC tariffs in 2026, copper tube exports increased by 26% year - on - year. After October, air - conditioner production scheduling decreased, and processing fees fell slightly. In 2026, domestic air - conditioner sales will enter the replacement cycle, and exports may be under pressure. If copper prices remain above 80,000 yuan, "aluminum replacing copper" may accelerate, and copper tube consumption may have zero growth, with the processing fee range at 4,500 - 5,200 yuan [55]. 3.3.3 Copper Foil - Lithium - battery Demand Is "Not Weak in the Off - season", and Processing Fees Bottomed out and Rebounded - In July 2025, the production scheduling of lithium - ion batteries decreased, and the operating rate of lithium - ion copper foil reached a minimum of 68%. After August, with the implementation of policies such as energy storage and "trading in the old for the new", the production scheduling of power batteries increased, and processing fees rebounded. In 2026, new copper foil production capacity will be mainly high - end projects, and processing fees are expected to continue to recover [58]. 3.4 Terminal Situation Overview 3.4.1 Power - A Solid Foundation for Copper Demand and Potential Demand Growth Points in the Construction of a New Power System - The power sector is the largest part of domestic copper terminal demand. According to the "15th Five - Year Plan", the strategic position of the power sector is emphasized again. By 2030, the copper consumption in the power sector is expected to reach more than 800 million tons. The growth of renewable energy such as wind and solar power and the construction of UHV projects will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. However, in 2026, the marginal growth rate of copper demand in the power sector may decline due to the possible short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and the slowdown of UHV construction [60][61][63]. 3.4.2 Real Estate - Structural Opportunities in the Stock Era - The real estate sector's demand for copper is concentrated in building wiring, pipeline systems, etc. Although the real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, there will be a major opportunity for demand structure transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan". The renovation of old communities, urban renewal, and the development of smart homes and "photovoltaic - energy storage - charging" integrated parking lots will drive copper demand. However, in 2026, the real estate sector may still drag down copper terminal demand [75][76][77]. 3.4.3 Automobiles - The Automobile Sector Still Has a Certain Pulling Effect on Demand under the Electrification Transformation - With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, they have become the core driving force for copper demand in the transportation sector. In 2024, new energy vehicles consumed about 1.068 billion tons of copper, accounting for about 60% of transportation copper demand. By 2030, the total copper consumption in the transportation sector is expected to exceed 2.4 billion tons [83][85]. 3.4.4 Home Appliances - The "15th Five - Year Plan" May Be an Era of Both Quantity and Quality Improvement - In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the home appliance industry will face the full upgrade of energy - efficiency standards and the wave of intelligence. The copper consumption of air - conditioners and refrigerators is expected to increase. The export market will also have certain growth, and the home appliance industry will maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 4% in copper consumption during the "15th Five - Year Plan" [92][93]. 3.4.5 Electronics Sector - The Most Important Demand Growth Point - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the domestic electronics information industry will continue to develop in the directions of high - end, electrification, and intelligence. PCB and electronic wiring harnesses will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. By 2030, the copper consumption in the electronics sector is expected to reach 2 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% [100][101][102]. 3.4.6 Summary of Changes in Copper Terminal Demand in Each Sector - In 2026, the power, automobile, home appliance, and electronics sectors will have positive marginal increments in copper demand, while the real estate sector will have a negative marginal increment. Overall, the total copper demand will increase slightly [108]. 3.5 Comex Inventory Continues to Rise, while Inventories in Shanghai and London Are Difficult to Accumulate Continuously - In 2025, Comex inventory continued to rise significantly, approaching 400,000 tons. This is mainly due to the previous high premium in the US market caused by tariff expectations. In the Shanghai and London markets, low inventories may lead to squeeze - out risks from time to time [107]. 3.6 Domestic Supply in 2026 May Continue to Be in a Slight Surplus - According to the forecast, in 2026, the global refined copper production will be 2.8166 billion tons, and the demand will be 2.8076 billion tons, with a surplus of 90,000 tons [116].

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 新能源&有色组行业贵金属年报 贵金属的黄金时代 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号 F03114162 投资咨询号 Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 贵金属年度报告 2025-11-30 贵金属的黄金时代 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the pig market, the short - term strategy is cautiously bearish, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is cautiously bullish [9] - For the egg market, the strategy is neutral [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Pig Market**: In 2025, the pig market showed an oscillating downward trend. The stable inventory of reproductive sows led to relatively moderate price fluctuations. The industry's production efficiency improvement and policy - guided slaughter rhythm adjustment pushed pig prices down, causing the industry to fall into a loss. The current focus is on the "capacity reduction" process. In the short term (end - 2025 to Q1 2026), due to high supply pressure and limited demand support, pig prices will remain weakly oscillating. In the medium - to - long term (after June 2026), as capacity data drops, supply pressure will ease, and pig prices may turn upward. However, the impact of diseases needs to be watched [1][6][7] - **Egg Market**: In 2025, the egg market was dominated by high supply and weak demand. High chicken - fry sales in the first half of the year led to a high inventory of laying hens. Traditional seasonal demand boosts were not obvious, and prices showed an oscillating downward trend throughout the year. Currently, capacity reduction has started, but the high inventory of laying hens makes it difficult to substantially relieve short - term supply pressure. In 2026, as capacity reduction continues, supply pressure is expected to ease, and the market will operate with seasonal fluctuations [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Pig Market Review - **Spot and Futures Market Trends**: Pig prices in 2025 mainly oscillated downward. After a small rebound in the middle of the year, prices fell due to policy and supply factors. In the first quarter, prices were low and stable. In April, prices rose due to feed cost increases, then fell back. In June - July, prices rose again due to factors like reduced slaughter weight and secondary fattening, and then fell rapidly after August [19][21][24] Pig Breeding Profit and Capacity Cycle - **Pig Capacity Cycle**: In 2025, the pig capacity was stable, with the inventory of reproductive sows fluctuating around 40.5 million. Starting from October, the inventory decreased to 39.9 million due to "capacity reduction" policies and industry losses, and it is expected to continue to decline [26] Pig Supply Situation - **Capacity - side Changes**: From June 2024 to September 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was stable at around 40.5 million, which supported high pig slaughter volumes from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026. After October 2025, the inventory decreased, which may adjust the supply pattern in the second half of 2026 [28] - **MSY Changes**: In 2025, China's pig MSY was about 21, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. With the improvement of breeding technology, PSY and MSY are expected to continue to rise [33] - **Breeding Profit Changes**: Low feed costs and cost - control measures of large - scale farms have reduced breeding costs. Currently, self - breeding and self - fattening profits are around - 100 yuan per head, while purchasing piglets for fattening incurs a greater loss of about - 270 yuan per head [36] - **Pig Slaughter Weight and Secondary Fattening**: During the pig - price decline, farmers' reluctance to sell led to a high average slaughter weight. Secondary fattening in April and October provided short - term price support, but its impact on the market is expected to be mild in the future [41][43] Pig Demand Situation - **Pig Slaughter**: As pig prices fell, the frozen - meat inventory increased, and the slaughter data did not fully reflect consumption. In October, the average pig price decreased by 28% year - on - year, but the slaughter volume increased by 26.8%. The impact of year - end demand on pig prices remains to be seen [45] Domestic Pig - Breeding Industry Structure Changes - **Increased Concentration of Leading Enterprises**: In 2025, the market share of leading pig - breeding enterprises continued to increase. The top ten and top 23 group farms had market shares of 24.6% and 27.8% respectively from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5 percentage points. The pig market is expected to remain in a low - volatility cycle [54] Pig Market Outlook - Short - term: Due to high supply pressure and limited demand support, pig prices at the end of 2025 and in Q1 2026 will remain weakly oscillating [7] - Medium - to - long - term: After June 2026, as capacity reduction affects supply and the third quarter is a slaughter off - season, supply pressure will ease, and pig prices may turn upward. However, the impact of diseases needs to be watched [8] 2025 Egg Market Review - **Spot and Futures Market Trends**: In 2025, egg prices showed a two - stage decline. High laying - hen inventory put pressure on prices at the beginning of the year. After a short - term rebound in the middle of the year, prices continued to fall due to oversupply. At the end of the year, prices rebounded due to capacity reduction and increased demand [64][68][72] Egg Supply Situation - **Egg Inventory and Chicken - fry Sales**: As of the end of November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still 8.46% higher year - on - year. In November, chicken - fry sales were 36.03 million, a slight month - on - month increase. Overall, farmers' willingness to replenish the flock is still insufficient [76] - **Culled - hen Slaughter**: Currently, the total culled - hen slaughter volume has increased, with a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The average age of culled hens has decreased to 491 days [79] - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Costs and Profits**: Currently, egg - laying hen breeding costs are 3.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The breeding profit is - 0.51 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 18.6%. The industry is still in a loss [83] Egg Demand Situation - **Production - area Shipment Volume**: As of November 28, 2025, the total egg shipment volume was 295,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.95%. With the approaching of the demand peak season, future shipment volumes may increase [86] - **Sales - area Receipt Volume**: As of November 28, 2025, the receipt volume in the Beijing market decreased by 19.5% month - on - month, while that in the Guangdong market increased by 6.28% month - on - month, showing a significant difference between the north and the south [90] - **Egg Market Inventory**: As of November 28, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a month - on - month decrease of 21.26%, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10%, indicating obvious inventory reduction [94] Egg Market Outlook - In 2025, the egg market was dominated by high supply and weak demand. Currently, capacity reduction has started, but short - term supply pressure remains high. In 2026, as capacity reduction continues and the supply - conduction cycle is about four months, supply pressure is expected to ease. The market will operate with seasonal fluctuations, and two key variables need to be tracked: the rhythm and intensity of capacity reduction and the actual demand boost effect [95][96][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and overseas macro - liquidity is expected to maintain a resonant and loose state, with sufficient market capital. The stock market has become an important outlet for funds, and the liquidity support for the stock market will be further strengthened. The securitization rate increase will be one of the core drivers [6]. - It is necessary to pay attention to the profit repair progress in the second stage of the bull market. The profit bottom of the entire A - share market is expected to appear at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, and the market may shift from the previous structural differentiation to full - scale spread, driving the four major indexes upward. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indexes are expected to rise steadily, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may have stronger performance - driven market conditions [6]. - Under the guidance of the capital market policies promoted by the new "Nine - National - Point Plan", the stock index market will tend to the mid - and large - cap style in the long term. In 2026, the market driven by profit and industry policies will focus on the cycle and technology sectors, and the performance of the CSI 500 index will be more prominent [7]. Summary by Directory I. Internal and External Liquidity Remains Abundant 1. The US is Expected to Continue Cutting Interest Rates - The US labor market is weak, with indicators such as the continuous rise in the number of initial jobless claims and a peak in corporate lay - offs in October 2025. The unemployment rate of high - skilled groups has reached a new high since 2022 [12]. - The deterioration of the labor market has strengthened the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. The current round of interest rate cuts may last until the end of 2026, with the target rate possibly falling below 1%, and the cumulative rate cut may exceed 300 basis points [13]. 2. Domestic Liquidity Remains Ample - The domestic economy faces pressure in investment, export, and consumption, but still maintains a stable and progressive overall trend. New productive forces are growing, and the necessity of continuing loose monetary and active fiscal policies in 2026 is more prominent [17]. - The central bank has ensured reasonable and ample liquidity through various tools. The policy interest rate has remained stable, and the market interest rate has run at a low level. The M1 - M2 scissors - gap has continued to narrow, indicating an improvement in the activation of funds [23]. 3. The Ranking of Stock Index Investment Rises - The yields of traditional assets such as bonds and real estate have declined, while the performance of the equity market has been excellent. The gap in yields between traditional and equity assets has widened [26]. - Policy guidance, such as encouraging insurance funds to increase equity allocation and optimizing the investment scope of public funds, has accelerated the flow of funds into the equity market. Various types of funds are increasing their equity market allocation [27]. II. Focus on Profits in the Second Stage of the Bull Market 1. System Optimization Consolidates the Foundation for a Long - Term Bull Market - The new "Nine - National - Point Plan" in 2024 is a milestone for the capital market to turn to fundamental investment. In 2025, the regulatory authorities further optimized the system in terms of investment and financing reform, market stability, and opening - up [48]. 2. The Profit Inflection Point is Approaching - China's economic growth is expected to remain at around 4% in 2026, providing support for the capital market. The market is transitioning from a liquidity - driven to a fundamentals - driven stage, and corporate profit repair is the core concern [53]. - The prices of upstream industrial products and inflation levels are key factors. Metal prices have strengthened, and PPI is expected to enter a mild repair channel in 2026. The profit repair of the cycle sector is highly certain [54]. - The profit of the entire A - share market (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemical sectors) is expected to bottom out at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. The performance of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may be stronger [62]. 3. Stock Index Investment Tends Towards Large - Cap Indexes - The "Buffett Indicator" of the A - share market shows that there is still room for the securitization rate to increase. The market investment style is tilting towards large - cap stocks, and the performance of the CSI 500 index may be more prominent in 2026 [68].

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持...... 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 新能源&有色组行业锡年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 策略摘要 2025 年下半年以来，佤邦雨季致复产及出口不及预期，进口矿加工费跌至 1.1 万，供应端干扰仍存。而需求则是在"十五五"规划相关板块的刺激下或将 呈现逐步转强的情况，价格重心预计在 2026 年仍将上行。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 价格展望： 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规 划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持震荡偏强格局，高点或触及 37 万元 /吨至 38 万元/吨区间。 矿端：2025 下半年锡精矿"紧平衡"难破：佤 ...