新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 冶炼及进口方面，9月24日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业当下最突 出的问题。中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调，铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业 影响大，损害了国家和行业利益，与高质量发展导向存在偏差，铜行业企业要坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 与此前的反内卷不同，此次反内卷更多针对于精铜冶炼企业，但由于国内冶炼企业多为大型国企，因此具体反内 卷措施如果落实仍有待观察。 反内卷指向冶炼企业 但具体政策落实则仍有待观察 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-25，沪铜主力合约开于 81000元/吨，收于 82710元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.44%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 82290元/吨，收于 82380 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货转为贴水，SMM1#铜均价82130-82880元/吨，主力合约贴水30元/吨（跌25元）。沪 铜早 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the US economy is re - verified, and the game of interest rate cuts continues. In China, policy expectations are rising due to increased economic pressure in August. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed has restarted interest rate cuts, with the market expecting a more extended easing cycle [1][2]. - For commodities, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with features such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. External tariff pressure increased, leading to an increase in domestic policy expectations for stable growth. There were positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, including talks and a phone call between the leaders. On September 25, A - shares showed a mixed performance, and domestic commodity futures generally rose [1]. US Economic Situation - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth rate declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot shows a more conservative outlook on future rate cuts than the market. There are deepening differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths, and the US is facing a potential government shutdown [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, and a major copper mine accident may reduce production. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, some products have "anti - involution" potential. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are expected to strengthen due to de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%. US new - home sales reached a new high, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up. There were statements from Fed officials on interest - rate policies. The US government may shut down, and there were developments in US - EU trade agreements and new trade investigations. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market will maintain a pattern of sector rotation with a shrinking trading volume in the remaining three trading days before the holiday, showing characteristics of a partial market [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the Ministry of Commerce included three US entities such as Flat Earth Management Company in the export control list and three US entities involved in arms sales to Taiwan, like Alcon Inc., in the unreliable entity list. Overseas, the US Q2 GDP final annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the initial jobless claims last week dropped to 218,000 [1] - In the A-share spot market, the three major indexes showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3,853.63 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%. Most sector indexes declined, with media, communication, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment industries leading the gains, and textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and household appliances industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.4 trillion yuan. The scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time, with stock funds increasing by 63 billion yuan and hybrid funds increasing by over 33 billion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq falling 0.50% to 22,384.70 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures fluctuated on the day. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IF position increased [2] Strategy - With only three trading days left before the holiday, according to seasonal patterns, the market trading volume may continue to shrink, and the market will maintain a sector rotation pattern with partial market characteristics [3] Macroeconomic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on September 25, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.60%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.69%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.37% [13] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [16] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and position data of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased, while the IF position increased, and the positions of IH, IC, and IM decreased [17] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis and its changes for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [39][42] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures show the spread and its changes between different contracts [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the PG futures market has shown an oscillating downward trend, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization, indicating that the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged and market expectations are weak. The domestic spot prices have shown mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, while domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Market Analysis - On September 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4540 - 4600; Northeast market, 4000 - 4260; North China market, 4400 - 4650; East China market, 4260 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4540 - 4700; Northwest market, 4400 - 4500; South China market, 4498 - 4670 [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 596 dollars/ton and 583 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4666 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4565 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 589 dollars/ton and 576 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4612 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4510 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [1] - The PG futures market has been oscillating downward recently, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization. The domestic spot prices showed mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, and domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors as PDH device profits have been continuously declining and fallen back into the negative range. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is strong resistance above the market. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated strongly yesterday. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in China in August was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. From January to August, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Domestic spot traders and oil mills are holding firm on prices. The basis of rapeseed oil has steadily increased, and the futures price of rapeseed oil is also strong. The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for rapeseed oil, which provides some support for rapeseed oil [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,222 yuan/ton, a change of +96 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.05% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,192 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.14% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,142 yuan/ton, a change of +221 yuan from the previous day, a change of +2.23% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,140 yuan/ton, a change of +170 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.90%. The spot basis was P01 + -82 yuan, a change of +74 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370 yuan/ton, a change of +90 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +1.09%. The spot basis was Y01 + 178 yuan, a change of -2 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,330 yuan/ton, a change of +190 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.87%. The spot basis was OI01 + 188 yuan, a change of -31 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains for nearly three days, the soybean export volume reached the highest level in at least seven years. The total soybean shipment volume in the 2024/25 season reached 10.5 million tons [2] - The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Intelligence used unmanned attack boats to attack the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse on the Black Sea coast. The attack paralyzed the oil loading facilities and terminal equipment near the Novorossiysk port, with daily crude oil exports of about 2 million barrels [2] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, setting a new record for the two-day purchase volume. These soybean oil orders will be shipped in batches from October to March of the following year at a purchase price of $1,100 to $1,120 per ton [2] - The estimated soybean output in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.94 million tons, down from the August forecast of 22.05 million tons. The estimated soybean planting area is about 5.77 million hectares, down from the August forecast of 5.8 million hectares [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price depending on the actual price increase in the second half of October. - The December contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the driving force is relatively strong before the continuous price - increase expectations are falsified. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upwards [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping alliances and companies have various price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in Week 42; HPL announced price hikes in the second half of October and November. Some companies like CMA also attempted to raise prices in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel attacked Sana'a, Yemen, which may impact the shipping market [3]. - **Capacity**: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 272,600 TEU, and in November it was 285,200 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **October Contracts**: The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline, and the final settlement price depends on the actual price increase in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contracts**: The trading of the December contract focuses on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter and shipping companies' preparations for long - term agreements, the freight rate is expected to be at a high level. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfers may put pressure on European line prices [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go short on the October contract and expect the December contract to be oscillating upwards. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. 3.3 Data on Contracts and Freight Rates - As of September 25, 2025, the total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 70,242 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as EC2602 at 1,696.20, EC2604 at 1,285.10, etc. - On September 19th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1,052 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 1,636 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2,557 US dollars/FEU. On September 15th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1,254.92 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,193.64 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 935,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - position spread at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of upstream devices drives up the operating rate. Two major PDH devices in Shandong are expected to restart soon, and the new production capacity in Shandong is ramping up, increasing the supply pressure in the propylene market. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling provides short - term bottom support for demand, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The stockpiling demand is poor, mainly for low - price and just - in - time procurement. The restart drive of major downstream industries is insufficient. On the cost side, due to the escalation of geopolitical situations and possible upgrades of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, the international oil price rebounds, and the external propane price is firm, providing support for the propylene cost [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures such as the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][32] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Soda Ash: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Silicomanganese: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] 2. Core Views - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The trading sentiment is high, and prices are expected to be volatile. Glass consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, while soda ash faces supply - demand contradictions, especially with the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project [1][2]. - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and alloys are expected to trade in a wide range. The supply - demand situation for both is relatively loose, and prices are likely to follow the sector's fluctuations [4]. 3. Market Analysis Glass - **Futures**: The glass futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 3.08%, and near - month contracts rising more than far - month contracts [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday restocking. With the price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.355 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with limited overall inventory changes. The large premium on the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases. The fundamentals still suppress prices, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and peak - season demand [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures**: The soda ash futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 1.15%, and all contracts rising to varying degrees [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday rigid - demand restocking. This week, domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.19%; inventory was 1.6515 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply - demand contradictions in soda ash still exist. With the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project, future supply pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. The current premium on the futures market suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Silicomanganese - **Futures**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,938 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The silicomanganese spot market performed averagely. The price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while hot metal production increased slightly. Downstream demand for silicomanganese still has resilience, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises has increased. In the long term, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Futures**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,786 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The ferrosilicon spot market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, ferrosilicon production remained flat, demand declined, and factory inventory decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand in the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, profits are still suppressed. Prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. 4. Strategies - **Glass**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Soda Ash**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [3] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [3]