Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy catalyzes the rise of risk appetite, and most treasury bond futures closed higher. The market is affected by macro - policies, inflation, and the new policy of restoring VAT on the interest income of treasury bonds. There is an obvious "new - old bond spread" in the market. The repurchase rate has declined, and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates. For the 2509 contract, it is neutral. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% (-0.80%) [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.07, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 (-0.16%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1804, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.012 (-0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); DR007 was 1.45, with a month - on - month change of +0.00 (-0.29%); R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.54, with a month - on - month change of +0.00 (-0.11%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month change of +0.00 (-0.11%) [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.83 yuan, 108.62 yuan, and 119.38 yuan respectively. The fluctuations were 0.00%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Means**: The net basis means of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.004 yuan, 0.021 yuan, 0.005 yuan, and 0.076 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: On August 7, 2025, the central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [1]. - **Money Market Repurchase Rates**: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.434%, 1.479%, and 1.529% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1]. IV. Spread Overview - **New - Old Bond Spread**: Due to the new policy of restoring VAT on the interest income of treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on August 1, from August 8, all newly - issued treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds need to pay VAT. Coupled with the tax exemption for existing bonds, there is an obvious "new - old bond spread" in the market [2]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Indicators**: Information on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the TS main contract is presented in relevant charts [47][49][57]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Indicators**: Information on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the TF main contract is presented in relevant charts [56][59]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Indicators**: Information on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the T main contract is presented in relevant charts [64][67]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Indicators**: Information on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the TL main contract is presented in relevant charts [73][76][79].

市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-07，尿素主力收盘1737元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：43 元/吨（+3）；河南基差：53元/吨（+13）；江苏基差：43元/吨（+3）；尿素生产利润250元/吨（-10），出口利润955 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-08-07，企业产能利用率81.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为88.76 万吨（-2.97），港口样本 库存量为48.30 万吨（-1.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-07，复合肥产能利用率41.50%（+2.82%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.10%（-2.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.53日（+0.41）。 出口利好转弱，尿素弱势整理 尿素日报 | 2025-08-08 尿素日均产量处于较高水平，供应端较为充足，预计开工率未来仍将高位运行。国内出口政策放松后出口量提升， 当前处于出口窗口期，仍有货源陆续集港出口，预计年内出口窗口期内出口量持稳，港口库存 ...

研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 封帆 联系人 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|有色专题报告 2025-08-07 多重变量交织难改氧化铝过剩实质 报告摘要 结论和核心观点： 策略 单边：逢高卖出保值 风险 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 1、 几内亚矿权扰动更多来源于利益博弈而非限制出口，对中国出口量难有实质性影 响。预计全年进口铝土矿供给增量达到 3500-4000 万吨，叠加国产矿增量，预计中 国铝土矿供给增量可达到 4500 万吨左右。全年铝土矿从 2024 年紧缺 1600 万吨转 变为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. After the release of MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%, keeping the supply side of palm oil loose. Coupled with favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas, the soybean supply is also optimistic. Overall, the prices of oils continued to oscillate [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,970.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 94 yuan or 1.04% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,406.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.00 yuan or 0.74%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,562.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.00 yuan or 0.55% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, with a spot basis of P09 + 10.00, an increase of 104.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 90.00 yuan/ton or 1.07%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a decrease of 7.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SPPOMA data, from August 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 19.32% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.39%, and the production decreased by 17.27%. According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%, with a 17.18% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 3.13% decrease in Sabah, a 0.69% decrease in Sarawak, and a 2.58% decrease in Borneo. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in July was 1.84 million tons [2] - As of the week ending August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as last year's 85% and slightly lower than the five - year average of 86% [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,153 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,141 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (October shipment) was 568 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (December shipment) was 558 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 479 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 217 cents/bushel, down 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (September shipment) was 190 cents/bushel, down 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 315 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current fundamental situation is favorable, but there are numerous disturbing news from the lithium ore end, especially continuous news about lithium ore approval issues without definite information, leading to significant fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market. It is advisable to adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 68,100 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 69,620 yuan/ton, with a 1.58% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 425,359 lots, and the open interest was 257,770 lots, an increase from the previous trading day's 232,062 lots. The current basis was 2,450 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures), and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 1,5023 lots, a change of 580 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 - 72,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,250 - 69,450 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - In August, with the steady increase in the production plans of downstream cathode material and battery cell enterprises, the market procurement demand showed a warming trend, and the inquiry activity increased significantly. However, due to the continuous strengthening of the basis in the lithium carbonate spot market, the current actual transactions are mainly for rigid demand. Downstream enterprises generally remain cautious and have not shown obvious inventory stocking behavior [1]. - In July, the production growth rate of lithium iron phosphate materials in China remained at a low level, with a month - on - month increase of 1.86% compared to June. The strong energy storage demand offset the slowdown in the power end. In August, the performance of the energy storage and power markets was still good, and the production plans of lithium iron cathode material factories will speed up accordingly. It is expected that the growth rate of cathode materials in August will be about 5% [2]. Strategy Given the current situation where the fundamentals are good but the lithium carbonate market fluctuates greatly due to uncertain news from the lithium ore end, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. Transaction Recommendations - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Inter - commodity spread: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-07 盘面弱势震荡，市场情绪一般 市场分析 1、8月6日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3529元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨6元/吨，涨幅0.17%； 持仓210844手，环比上涨2715手，成交134426手，环比上升5974手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3880—4086元/吨；山东，3550—3970元/吨；华南，3580—3630元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及川渝市场沥青现货价格均出现下跌，华南市场沥青现货价格有所上涨，其余地区暂时以持稳 为主。随着原油价格趋势转弱，沥青成本端支撑松动，昨日油价有所企稳，但中期下行压力仍存。就沥青自身基 本面来看，供需两弱格局大体延续，库存仍处于低位，还未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期过剩压力有限。但抛 开成本端的带动外，沥青来自基本面的上行驱动有限，因此如果未来油价转为下跌趋势，则沥青市场价格也将跟 随走弱。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

流动性日报 | 2025-08-07 市场流动性概况 2025-08-06，股指板块成交4474.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.76%；持仓金额11177.06亿元，较上一交易日变动 +2.45%；成交持仓比为39.69%。 国债板块成交3256.71亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.75%；持仓金额8575.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.63%；成交持 仓比为38.61%。 能源化工板块成交4152.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.74%；持仓金额4166.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.87%；成 交持仓比为87.64%。 农产品板块成交3376.42亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.10%；持仓金额5879.20亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.55%；成交 持仓比为52.82%。 黑色建材板块成交4706.18亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.43%；持仓金额3989.28亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.05%；成 交持仓比为102.05%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 基本金属板块成交3226.66亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；持仓金额4825.40亿元，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - No information provided Summary by Related Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 702,200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 680,200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,310,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 102,100 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,011,900 contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 28,400 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 72,800 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 234,800 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.66, with a month - on - month change of - 0.11; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.94, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01. Similar data for other options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options, etc. [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, open interest PCR, and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [30] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 15.71%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 15.84%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.10%. Similar data for other options are also given [3] - The table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change value for various index ETF options [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but CPL and styrene开工 rates have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure downstream, with a drop in phenol - acetone开工 rate. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China has an impact, and BZ processing fees continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. - For styrene, the port inventory declined again during the week. The port basis and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread of futures rebounded from the bottom. Combined with the increase in downstream提货 volume, it reflects the speculative demand for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" has emerged. However, the production schedule of white goods at the terminal is still average, there is still inventory pressure for downstream PS and ABS, and the production profit of hard plastics is also average, so the sustainability of restocking is in doubt [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Figures include the relationship between the pure benzene main contract basis and the pure benzene main futures contract price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [8][12][18]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and pure benzene FOB South Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [20][23][34]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [40][42][45]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures display EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [52][54][56]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [60][64][81]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant BZ2603 is high, and conduct reverse arbitrage when the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread is high; conduct reverse arbitrage when the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4].