Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2) Core View of the Report - After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price significantly increased, and the spot discount quickly repaired. The TC of domestic zinc mines in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas TC also decreased synchronously. The smelting comprehensive profit was severely compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low, and the warehouse receipt risk still exists. Micro - data has almost completely changed from bearish to bullish, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to decline due to the weakened expectation of US interest rate cuts in December and January. [4] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogues Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $104.97/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, - 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, - 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 93,469 lots, and the position was 82,326 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,465 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a change of - 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 43,525 tons, a change of 3,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - After the fall in the absolute price of zinc, the downstream's price acceptance increased, and the spot discount repaired. In November, the TC of domestic and overseas zinc mines decreased. The smelting profit was compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low, and the macro - level interest rate cut expectation is weakened, making the zinc price resistant to decline. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put 2. Core View of the Report - Although high copper prices significantly inhibit consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance in the new energy sector such as photovoltaics in the second half of the year, the copper price may maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips for hedging between 85,000 yuan/ton and 85,500 yuan/ton, and enterprises with selling - hedging needs can conduct corresponding operations between 88,500 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,440 yuan/ton and closed at 85,650 yuan/ton, a 0.93% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the overnight session, it opened at 85,530 yuan/ton and closed at 85,900 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,830 - 86,180 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 70 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 35 - yuan decline from the previous day. The decline in copper prices stimulated the downstream purchasing sentiment. The procurement and sales indices in Shanghai rose to 3.10 and 3.24 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Trump said he had selected the candidate for the next Fed Chair. Bessent narrowed the candidates to current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House NEC Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that from November 1 to November 8, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week of October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million [3] 3.2 Mine End - African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) is evaluating a partnership with Newmont to develop a large copper mine in Papua New Guinea, with a potential investment of $4 - 5 billion. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of next year. It expects the total output of copper and gold at PT Freeport Indonesia in 2026 to be basically the same as in 2025, at about 1 billion pounds of copper and 900,000 ounces of gold, and an output increase in 2026 - 2027, with an average annual copper output of about 1.6 billion pounds and an average annual gold output of about 1.3 million ounces from 2027 - 2029 [4] 3.3 Smelting and Import - Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The weekly average price of the bill of lading was $45.4/ton, a $1.4 decline from the previous week; the average price of the warehouse receipt was $34/ton, a $1 decline from the previous week. The import window remained closed, with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign trade market had light trading, but there were two active structural points [5] 3.4 Consumption - China aims to add 100 GW of new - type energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027 and reach 180 GW by the end of 2027. The US is expected to add about 19 GW of energy - storage power and 52.5 GWh of capacity in 2025, a 53% and 45% year - on - year increase respectively. Energy - storage expansion will boost metal demand, and the copper demand in China's electric vehicle and energy - transformation sectors is expected to increase by 18% year - on - year to 3 million tons in 2025 [6] 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 325 tons to 140,500 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 3,909 tons to 60,874 tons. On November 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 193,800 tons, a 7,300 - ton decrease from the previous week [6]

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

油脂日报 | 2025-11-19 巴西大豆新作预计创新高，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8708.00元/吨，环比变化+28元，幅度+0.32%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8320.00 元/吨，环比变化+38.00元，幅度+0.46%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9874.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.06%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.93%，现货基差P01-58.00，环比变化+52.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8500.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.35%，现货基差Y01+180.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10220.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差OI01+346.00， 环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，Abiove的预测与国家供应公司（Conab）上周发布的1776万吨产量预估基本一致。 巴西2026年大豆出口量预计达到1.11亿吨的新高，而2025年为1.09亿吨，向下修正50万吨。 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the reduction in production in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon valuation is currently low, and if there is policy support, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both sides have weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8980 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 248,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,402 lots, a change of - 620 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9400 - 9500 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon at 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - The reported price of organic silicon DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 (0) yuan/ton. The guiding price of organic silicon DMC was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton in the past week compared to before the joint price - support on November 12. Other downstream product prices also rose, with the 107 glue price at 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, raw rubber price at 14,000 yuan/ton, and silicone oil at 14,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in the past week [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts when the price is low. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 52,000 yuan/ton and closing at 52,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.67% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,091 (136,243 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 173,704 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly, with N - type material at 49.70 - 54.90 (0.00) yuan/kg and n - type granular silicon at 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.70 (a month - on - month change of 3.09%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.42GW (a month - on - month change of 5.14%), polysilicon weekly output at 26,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.74%), and silicon wafer output at 13.12GW (a month - on - month change of - 2.45%) [4]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.27 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.60 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.28 (- 0.02) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline. The prices of battery cells and components remained stable [6]. - On November 17, Liu Hanyuan, the chairman of Tongwei Group, made a public statement on polysilicon capacity integration. The polysilicon capacity integration plan, known as "integration," is being promoted by upstream giants and industry associations. The plan is expected to establish a fund of about 70 billion yuan, using a "debt - assumption" method of leveraging 70 billion with 10 billion for acquisitions to achieve capacity control and clearance [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by a co - existence of tight mine supply and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm. The price range is approximately between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.88/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 55,068 lots, a decrease of 19,523 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 69,126 lots, a decrease of 5,459 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,370 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,215 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,195 yuan/ton, a 0.49% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory sales; in Hunan, lead smelters quoted at a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, but the trading was light; in Yunnan, holders quoted at a discount of 250 - 300 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In the context of consecutive declines in lead prices, the purchasing attitudes of downstream enterprises varied. The trading was acceptable in the northern and eastern regions, while it was average in the southern regions [2] Inventory - On November 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 18, the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead investment is to take a neutral stance. For options, a sell - wide - straddle strategy is recommended [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 避险情绪急剧发酵，风险资产集体承压 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，关 注后续经济情况。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一 步促进消费政策措施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。11月18日，A股低开低走，创业板指跌超1%。AI应用方向逆势大 涨；商品多数下跌，焦煤跌3.86%，集运指数(欧线)跌2.88%，沪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the stock market, the decline in risk appetite is beneficial to the bond market. Meanwhile, the divergence in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] - Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, and China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.61% [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.59, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05 and a growth rate of 0.05%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1132, with a month - on - month increase of 0.008 and a growth rate of 0.12%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.26%; DR007 is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.02%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 105.92 yuan, 108.50 yuan, and 116.53 yuan respectively, with daily price changes of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.06% respectively [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.025 yuan, - 0.044 yuan, - 0.016 yuan, and - 0.091 yuan respectively [3] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy and a return of current deposits to time deposits [2] - On November 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.525%, 1.518%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are multiple figures related to various spreads, such as the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [7][8] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][37][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][50][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][57][59] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][64][70]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...