新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 现货成交仍清淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-10-15，LME铅现货升水为-44.48美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16900 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10375元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-15，沪铅主力合约开于17010元/吨，收于17110元/吨，较前一交易日变化60元/吨，全天交易日 成交41257手，较前一交易日变化-1944手，全天交易日持仓44032手，手较前一交易日变化435手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17135元/吨，最低点达到16960元/吨。夜盘方 ...

化工日报 | 2025-10-16 聚酯产业链弱势，PTA加工费再度压缩 市场要闻与数据 近期处在中美贸易战博弈期，双方领导人将于月底附近会面，持续关注进展 市场分析 成本端，近期处在中美贸易战博弈期，双方领导人将于月底附近会面，持续关注进展。国庆节后中国的进口需求 放缓与美国出口增加形成明显剪刀差，叠加中东出口增加，供应过剩的矛盾已经开始兑现；短期来看，宏观与基 本面共振让基本面承压，暂时没有看到反弹的驱动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN226美元/吨(环比变动+1.75美元/吨）。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行；随着 海外几套装置重启，PX开工整体走高，另外PX四季度检修计划推迟以及个别装置四季度扩能下PXN依然承压。同 时下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟和PTA工厂减产保价下检修计划增多，一定程度也影响市场心 态，PX四季度供需面预期明显弱化，下方支撑转弱，关注后续利润压缩下的检修情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -85 元/吨(环比变动-3元/吨），PTA现货加工费83元/吨（环比变动-102元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费306元/吨（环比变动+0元/吨），检修增多下加工费 ...

化工日报 | 2025-10-16 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14895元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨；NR主力合约12235元/吨，较前一日变动+245 元/吨；BR主力合约10895元/吨，较前一日变动+115元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14300元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前一 日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1740 美元/吨，较前一日变动+40美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11200元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年9月，我国重卡市场销量约为10.5万辆（批发口径，含出口和新能源），同比增长约82%，环比增长15%，创 下近年同期新高。 2025年9月中国天然及合成橡胶（包含胶乳）进口量74.2万吨，环比增加11.75%，同比增加20.85%；1-9月累计进口 量611.50万吨，累计同比增加19.22%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, but the recent weak performance of crude oil prices due to a looser fundamental situation and potential tariff frictions is suppressing the overall energy sector [1] - Russian fuel oil supply is restricted, with expected lower high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October. The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 2,681 yuan/ton, while the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,156 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, and the market structure is supported [1] - Russian supply is restricted. Due to continuous drone attacks in Ukraine and new sanctions from the UK on October 15, Russian refinery maintenance has increased unexpectedly, and the estimated high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons from the previous month [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and shipping and bunker fuel demand face potential risks. However, the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]

丙烯日报 | 2025-10-16 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6079元/吨（-5），丙烯华东现货价6215元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6260元/吨（-20）， 丙烯华东基差136元/吨（+5），丙烯华北基差181元/吨（-15）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR222美元/吨（+14），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR143美元/吨（+12），进口利润-393元/吨（+30），厂内库存43390吨 （-1520）。 需求转弱，成本端亦持续拖累 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（+2.29%），生产利润-85元/吨（+20）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润-344 元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润57元/吨（+16）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润71元/吨（-32）； 丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1187元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-721元/吨（+31）；酚 酮开工率78%（-1%），生产利润-526元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，节中利华益维远和河北海伟PDH装置停车检修 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has declined, and port basis is firm. The market is driven by news about whether Iranian sanctioned ships can dock. There are concerns about potential relaxation of sanctions on Iran, and China's new special port dues may affect some US - owned methanol ships' docking [3] - Coal - based methanol operating rate in the inland region has rebounded, and inland inventory is gradually increasing, weakening the support for ports [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Includes figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Involves figures about Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit, and import price differences between different regions (e.g., Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [25][29][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures present methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][42] IV. Regional Price Differences - Shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Contains figures about the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [56][58] Market Data Summary Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 660 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2065 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and its basis is 367 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan). Inner Mongolia South Line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2320 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 222 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan). Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and its basis is 77 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan). Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 197 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 360,900 tons (up 21,500 tons), and Northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (up 19,000 tons). Inland factory pending orders are 228,910 tons (up 113,670 tons), and Northwest factory pending orders are 136,730 tons (up 73,530 tons) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2317 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and its basis is 19 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars), and the East China import price difference is 1 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). Changzhou methanol is 2405 yuan/ton, and Guangdong methanol is 2285 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [2] - Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,491,360 tons (down 51,870 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 773,000 tons (down 20,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 224,000 tons (down 63,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 323,000 tons (up 23,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (up 0.50%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 55 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 298 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 253 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 97 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan), Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 212 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 103 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - term: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the price is high [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 临近交割仓单有限 市场挺价情绪或仍存在 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-15，沪铜主力合约开于 84180元/吨，收于 85800元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.65%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 85240元/吨，收于85160 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.75%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，SMM 1#电解铜现货报价平水至升水180元/吨，均价升水90元，较前日涨40元，电铜价格区间 84950~85520元/吨。日间盘面主力合约波动于84920-85390元/吨，当月与次月价差在Contango80至Back10元/吨间变 动。市场采销情绪双双走弱，主因最后交易日持货商惜售，下游采购清淡。当前报价已转向2511合约，平水铜报 平水至升水60元/吨，好铜升水80-100元/吨。明日换月后，上海地区期货仓单仅6277吨，预计持货商挺价意愿增强。 重要资讯汇总： IMF发布最新一期《财政监测报告》指出，到2029年，全球公共债务规模预计将首次突破GDP的100%；IMF警告 称如果当前财政支出与债务增长趋势得不到遏制，全球金融稳定性可能面临严重威 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins continue to be weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. For PE, factors such as inventory accumulation, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production contribute to the decline. For PP, cost - side weakness and supply - demand imbalances cause the downward movement of the market [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6910元/吨（-8），PP主力合约收盘价为6595元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6910元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6620元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为0元/吨（-52），LL华东基差为40元/吨（-42），PP华东基差为25元/吨（-13）[1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）[1] - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为452.3元/吨（-8.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 147.7元/吨（-8.9），PDH制PP生产利润为174.6元/吨（+64.2）[1] - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 108.2元/吨（-80.0），PP进口利润为 - 554.0元/吨（-30.0），PP出口利润为23.6美元/吨（+3.7）[1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.3%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（+0.5%）[1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. The downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the slow inventory digestion, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production lead to the downward trend. In the future, supply is expected to increase with new device production and restart of shutdown devices, while demand improvement is limited [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is mainly due to the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. Supply is expected to increase with the restart of devices and new production, while demand fails to meet expectations during the peak season. The cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L and PP [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-16 苹果价格两极分化，红枣销区到货锐减 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8665元/吨，较前一日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.01%。现货方面，陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格3.85元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-965，较前一日变动-1。 近期市场资讯，目前西部交易表现活跃，客商积极订购好货，甘肃整体价格稳定运行。目前交易价格来看，陕西 洛川产区晚富士70#以上半商品3.7-3.9元/斤附近，70#以上统货3.4-3.6元/斤，订园价格3.5-3.8元/斤主流。多以质论 价。甘肃静宁产区70#以上山地商品5-6元/斤，主流5-5.5元/斤。70#以上统货4-4.5元/斤附近，冰雹伤货源3.5-4元/ 斤。山东产区红货不多，果面质量一般，客商多流向西部及辽宁产区，招远毕郭市场晚富士红货零星交易，主流 参考价2.5-3.5元/斤。晚富士价格走势、客商收购心态、果农出售心态、天气情况、终端消费进度。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价窄幅波动。晚富士现货市场，甘肃、陕西等西部产区受持续降雨影响，晚富士采摘下树及上色受阻， 客商对好货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]