Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US tariff game continues, and EG remains weak. The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. In Saudi Arabia, more than two sets of plants are still shut down or operating at low loads. On the demand side, demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$61/ton, down $1/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was -431 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data analysis provided, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons. According to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, up 4.3 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.5 tons, with a possibility of continued inventory accumulation [1]. - Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-15 政策扰动仍在，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-14，工业硅期货价格偏弱运行，主力合约2511开于8715元/吨，最后收于8520元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-190） 元/吨，变化（-2.18）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓162674手，2025-10-14仓单总数为51197手，较前一日变化 343手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格弱稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9500（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区部分硅价小幅回落，97硅价格小幅持稳。 中国驻安哥拉大使馆经商处陆玉忠参赞一行前往江苏北洋集团在安哥拉投资设立的富安达国际矿业勘探与工业有 限公司进行实地视察和调研。江苏商会会长朱晋林、名誉会长王林元、常务副会长侯柯其、秘书长陈书明等陪同。 据介绍，富安达项目一期总投资2000万美元，占地16公顷，建设两台矿热炉，年产工业硅1.5万吨，项目于202 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-15 现货价格弱稳，关注印标投标情况 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-14，尿素主力收盘1597元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： -47元/吨（+33）；河南基差：-57元/吨（+33）；江苏基差：-37元/吨（+43）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（+20），出口利 润1016元/吨（+34）。 供应端：截至2025-10-14，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-14，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，山西及内蒙低价成 交延续。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所 ...

Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The spot price of lithium carbonate is weakly stable, and the futures market opened high and closed low. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. If the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens later, the futures market may decline [1][3] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 72,600 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 0.50% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 270,327 lots, and the open interest was 192,931 lots (the previous day's open interest was 207,463 lots). The basis was 200 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 35,180 lots, a change of - 1,538 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 818 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Downstream material factories have low psychological expectations, and the overall market trading activity is average. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October is expected to continue to grow. In terms of demand, both the commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand. Overall, in October, although the supply is growing steadily, there is a stage of tight supply [1] Policy News - On October 13, at a press conference, the General Administration of Customs stated that the market share of domestic self - owned brands of electric vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 59.5%, showing a significant increase [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and selling hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-15 烧碱区域分化，关注下游采购 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4692元/吨（-29）；华东基差-92元/吨（+9）;华南基差-32元/吨（-1）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-12元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-622元/吨（+153）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-538元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润19.3美元/吨（+0.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.4万吨（+8.4）；PVC社会库存55.7万吨（+1.9）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量58.3万吨（-19.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2428元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差166元/吨（+36）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-15 贸易事件波动大，盘面调整 市场分析 贸易波动较大。国内方面，国务院总理主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会，听取对当前经济形势和下一步经 济工作的意见建议。表示对当前经济形势，要以更宽的视野准确把握，从国际局势的变化来看我国经济的韧性， 进一步坚定信心、直面问题，坚定不移办好自己的事。同时强调要加力提效实施逆周期调节。持续用力扩大内需、 做强国内大循环。要多措并举营造一流产业生态，综合治理行业无序、非理性竞争。贸易方面，美国开始实施对 中国海事、物流和造船领域301调查的最终措施，韩华海洋株式会社在美相关子公司提供协助、支持。中方决定对 韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司实施反制，禁止我国境内的组织、个人与其进行有关交易、合作等活动。就 近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施，商务部指出，美方不能一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施。敦 促美方尽快纠正错误做法，通过对话协商解决各自关切。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数回落，沪指跌0.62%收于3865.23点，创业板指跌3.99%。行业方面，板块指数 跌多涨少，银行、煤炭、食品饮料行业领涨，通信、电子、有色金属、计算机行 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the pig market, the pre - holiday stocking during the Double Festival was lackluster, with limited overall demand growth. The October holiday affected the pig slaughter schedule, leading to an accelerated post - holiday slaughter rhythm by group farms and concentrated slaughter by散户. The supply pressure is gradually being released, and the demand side is expected to decline in the short term. The oversupply situation in the pig market is unlikely to change in the short term [2] - In the egg market, after the holiday, egg prices dropped rapidly. Traders were cautious in purchasing, and all sectors accumulated inventory passively. The consumer terminal has returned to the off - season normal demand this week, with no short - term positive factors. All sectors are mainly digesting the previous inventory, and the consumption demand has declined significantly. During the seasonal off - season, the large supply pressure suppresses the spot price, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton or 2.92% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog price in Henan was 11.10 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.20 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.43 yuan/kg, unchanged. The spot basis in Henan was LH11 - 350, down 335; in Jiangsu, it was LH11 - 250, down 335; in Sichuan, it was LH11 - 1020, down 325 [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.92, up 0.22 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.86, up 0.25 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 66.05 yuan/kg, down 0.4%; mutton was 61.85 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; eggs were 7.60 yuan/kg, down 2.1%; white - striped chicken was 17.66 yuan/kg, up 0.6% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract yesterday was 2,852 yuan/500 kilograms, up 44 yuan or 1.57% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 2.71 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.42 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD11 - 142, down 44; in Shandong, it was JD11 - 102, down 44; in Hebei, it was JD11 - 432, down 44 [3] - Inventory: On October 14, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.73 days, down 0.21 days or 10.82%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.77 days, down 0.20 days or 10.15% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core View - The soybean market shows a tight supply - demand relationship due to potential frost damage to the yet - to - be - harvested soybeans in Northeast China and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the peanut market has limited price increase due to weak demand despite supply changes in different regions [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 3953.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.00 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible bean spot is A11 + 87, an increase of 8 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] - Market information: New - season soybeans in the Northeast market are increasing in supply, with price polarization. Low - protein common beans are 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein beans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and 40%+ protein beans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower - grain beans also vary by protein content. Enterprises are actively purchasing, and the new - grain price is expected to stabilize in the short term [2] - Weather impact: Frost is expected in Northeast China around October 18, which may affect the yield and quality of soybeans. Traders are actively buying, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a tight supply - demand relationship and rising purchase prices [3] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7864.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan/ton (- 0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts is 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous day. The spot basis is PK11 + 336.00, an increase of 38.00 (+ 12.75%) from the previous day [3] - Market information: The average price of common peanuts in the national market is 4.19 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills' contract procurement prices for common and oil - used peanuts have limited arrivals. Rain in Henan affects new - peanut supply, while supply in the Northeast is increasing, but price increase lacks demand support, and some processing plants are closed [4] Group 5: Figures and Data Sources - Figures include those related to soybean and peanut futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, production, consumption, inventory, import volume, planting profit, and planting cost [7] - Data sources mainly include Flush, Steel Union Data, and the National Bureau of Statistics, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [9][11][29]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-15 策略 国内供应仍显宽松，豆粕偏弱震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2902元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，幅度-1.02%；菜粕2601合约2348元/吨，较前 日变动-44元/吨，幅度-1.84%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2980元/吨，较前日变动-40元/吨，现货基差M01+78， 较前日变动-10；江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M01-12，较前日变动+10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2890元/吨，较前日变动跌-20元/吨，现货基差M01-12，较前日变动+10。福建地区菜粕现货价格2560 元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差RM01+212，较前日变动+14。 近期市场资讯，10月13日，巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西10月前两周出口大豆216.6万吨，日均 出口量为27.1万吨，较上年10月全月的日均出口量21.4万吨增加26%。 上年10月全月出口量为471万吨。咨询机构 AgRural周一表示，截至10月9日，2025/26年度大豆播种进度达到全国总播种面积的14%， ...

流动性日报 | 2025-10-14 市场流动性概况 基本金属板块成交5679.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.02%；持仓金额5231.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.81%； 成交持仓比为96.93%。 贵金属板块成交10430.89亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.23%；持仓金额5251.45亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.24%；成 交持仓比为274.25%。 能源化工板块成交4734.89亿元，较上一交易日变动+33.79%；持仓金额4355.78亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.85%； 成交持仓比为86.64%。 农产品板块成交3241.07亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.05%；持仓金额5418.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.64%；成 交持仓比为56.55%。 黑色建材板块成交2515.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.04%；持仓金额3309.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%； 成交持仓比为76.89%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 2025-10-13，股指板块成交9646.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.85%；持仓金额14070.23 ...