1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - MSC's online prices in February remain the same as in January, and the focus is on Maersk's WEEK6 quotation. The SCFIS at the beginning of February is an important point of contention for the settlement price of the February contract. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery of ultra-large vessels in 2026 has relatively less pressure, while the annual delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant - month contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][2][3][4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of January 19, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures is 62,201.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,458.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts are 1714.30, 1132.20, 1318.00, 1459.00, 1054.10, and 1300.00 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotations from different shipping alliances are provided, including the prices of Maersk, HPL, MSC, ONE, HMM, CMA, EMC, and OOCL for different time periods from Shanghai to Rotterdam. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on January 16 is 1676 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2194 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3165 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on January 19 is 1954.19 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1305.27 points [1][7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 80 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. The expected delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships), 1.212 million TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively. The expected delivery of ships over 17,000 TEU from 2026 - 2029 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships), and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) respectively [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 342,200 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK4 and WEEK5 being 408,600 TEU and 275,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February is 273,700 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6, WEEK7, WEEK8, and WEEK9 are 255,800 TEU, 325,200 TEU, 292,100 TEU, and 221,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 289,700 TEU. There are 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given V. Demand and European Economy - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: None at present [8]

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-20 2026-01-19，美国10年期国债利率收于4.255%，较前一交易日+4.16BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.671%，较前一交 易日+3.52BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2026-01-19，Au2604合约上，多头较前一日变化3615手，空头则是变化2389手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 419920手，较前一交易日变化-28.95%。在沪银方面，在Ag2604合约上，多头变动2921手，空头变动4248手。白银 合约上个交易日总成交量2734346手，较前一交易日变化-18.20%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 地缘压力逐渐凸显 避险再成交易主线 市场分析 宏观面上，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布《世界经济展望》更新报告，将2026年全球经济增长预期上调0.2个百 分点至3.3%。IMF同时上调中国、美国、欧元区和日本2026年经济增长预期。报告指出，人工智能带动的信息技 术投资增长正成为支撑全球经济的重要动力。地缘上，欧盟将于1月22日召开紧急峰会，讨论美国总统特朗普宣布 向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征关税等问题，并评估欧盟可能采取的反制措施 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - CPC 3rd SPM is expected to restart by the end of the month, and the basis for the strength of European light oil is not solid [2]. - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On January 16 local time, the US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. Under the new arrangement, Chevron can pay the Venezuelan government in cash and sell all the crude oil it produces there [1]. - On January 16 local time, Venezuela announced the signing of a liquefied petroleum gas commercialization contract, marking the official start of its export of this energy resource [1]. - On January 17, as the exchange - rate shock caused by the US oil blockade on Venezuela eases, Venezuela is preparing to resume dollar sales to support its domestic currency. Banks are collecting bids, but no funds have been allocated yet [1]. - The US Energy Department is exploring a plan to exchange US medium - sour crude for Venezuelan heavy crude to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve [1]. Investment Logic - Recently, due to frequent attacks on Black Sea oil tankers and the adjustment of CPC crude loading plans, buyers are avoiding purchasing CPC crude, leading to a decline in CPC crude's discount and an increase in the discounts of North Sea and Azerbaijani light crude. However, the expected restart of CPC 3rd SPM by the end of the month weakens the basis for the strength of European light oil [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Medium - term: A short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downside risks: An agreement is reached in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and macro black - swan events occur [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 19, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Presents the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors on January 19, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day, covering stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 19, 2026, the trading volume was 824.992 billion yuan, a -16.16% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1642.681 billion yuan, a +0.80% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.89% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 19, 2026, the trading volume was 260.431 billion yuan, a -24.36% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 810.902 billion yuan, a +0.24% change; the trading - holding ratio was 32.00% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On January 19, 2026, the basic metal trading volume was 949.244 billion yuan, a -32.61% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 752.046 billion yuan, a -4.16% change; the trading - holding ratio was 122.38%. The precious metal trading volume was 1349.387 billion yuan, a +17.13% change; the holding amount was 600.725 billion yuan, a -0.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 297.43% [1] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - On January 19, 2026, the trading volume was 392.380 billion yuan, a -25.34% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 462.940 billion yuan, a -0.81% change; the trading - holding ratio was 78.68% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On January 19, 2026, the trading volume was 301.831 billion yuan, a -5.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 607.148 billion yuan, a -1.24% change; the trading - holding ratio was 46.67% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On January 19, 2026, the trading volume was 227.333 billion yuan, a -10.01% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 328.119 billion yuan, a -1.62% change; the trading - holding ratio was 67.02% [2]

化工日报 | 2026-01-20 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15745元/吨，较前一日变动-90元/吨；NR主力合约12655元/吨，较前一日变动-90 元/吨；BR主力合约11605元/吨，较前一日变动-210元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15500元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1900美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1825 美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署1月14日公布的数据显示，2025年12月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计95.3万吨，较2024 年同期的80.5万吨增加18.4%。2025年中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计852.5万吨，较2024年的730.3万吨增 加16.7%。 2025年12月我国汽车产销分别完成329.6万辆 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-20 雨雪天气尿素成交放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-19，尿素主力收盘1772元/吨（-19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-22 元/吨（-1）；河南基差：-22元/吨（+9）；江苏基差：-12元/吨（+9）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-20），出口利润852 元/吨（+15）。 单边：短期震荡 跨期：UR05-09逢低正套 跨品种：无 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2026-01-19，企业产能利用率85.25%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为98.61 万吨（-3.61），港口样本 库存量为12.90 万吨（-0.60）。 需求端：截至2026-01-19，复合肥产能利用率40.08%（+2.91%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.18%（+7.83%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.06日（-0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with previous long positions advised to take appropriate profit and exit [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand for asphalt is weak, with local spot prices falling The overall cost side of asphalt still has support, but the weak terminal demand and the wide availability of alternative raw materials will limit the upward space of the market [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On January 19th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2603 in the afternoon session was 3,142 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 0.29% The open interest was 191,534 lots, down 2,331 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 124,762 lots, down 7,088 lots [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt were: Northeast 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,010 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton; East China 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, asphalt spot prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Shandong and East China fell, and prices in other regions remained basically stable Weather factors restricted the release of rigid demand for asphalt, but the supply side was still supported due to the limited circulation of some asphalt brands [2] - The market is pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply and has entered a volatile stage If Venezuelan crude oil originally flowing to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the United States, domestic refineries will need to find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc. after consuming inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), which will make cost and product yield changes more complex [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, previous long positions should take appropriate profit and exit; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is high, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Domestically, the reduction of syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the overall EG production load continues to rise. There is still great pressure on inventory accumulation in January - February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after February as some devices are under maintenance, but the reduction in imports is slow, and the pressure in January remains high. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, and the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. - For trading strategies, the current price is low with some buying support, but due to high downstream implicit inventory, increasing port inventory, and slow reduction in imports, the inventory accumulation pressure in January - February is large, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to conduct an inverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. International Price Difference No specific data analysis provided, only mentioned the "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - As the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is 20.5 tons, and the arrival in secondary ports is 1 ton, with high overall arrivals, and inventory accumulation in the main ports is expected [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; There is no recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The spot price of propylene is relatively strong, and the basis has strengthened significantly. PDH device maintenance has begun to be realized, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly. However, due to the easing of geopolitical disturbances and the decline of oil prices from high levels, the short - term upward trend of the propylene market has slowed down. Attention should be paid to cost changes and the implementation of PDH device maintenance [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6035 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6145 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China is 290 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis in Shandong is 110 yuan/ton (+15) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 75% (-1%), China propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 252 US dollars/ton (+3), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 80 US dollars/ton (+2), and the import profit is - 338 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 32% (-5.84%), with a production profit of - 125 yuan/ton (-30); propylene oxide operating rate is 72% (-1%), with a production profit of 186 yuan/ton (+70); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+4%), with a production profit of 628 yuan/ton (+100); octanol operating rate is 94% (+5%), with a production profit of 704 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 82% (-5%), with a production profit of 159 yuan/ton (+125); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), with a production profit of - 1465 yuan/ton (-50); phenol - acetone operating rate is 89% (+4%), with a production profit of - 919 yuan/ton (-90) [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 46,270 tons (+1,580) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE and PP are both rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment has cooled down, and supply - demand support is insufficient. The market is back to fundamental trading and may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,667 yuan/ton (-28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,482 yuan/ton (-14). LL North China spot is 6,660 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,730 yuan/ton (-120), and PP East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis is -7 yuan/ton (+28), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (-92), and PP East China basis is -72 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 289.9 yuan/ton (-52.7), PP oil - based production profit is -360.1 yuan/ton (-52.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is -582.4 yuan/ton (+60.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is 240.1 yuan/ton (-23.6), PP import profit is -253.7 yuan/ton (+6.5), and PP export profit is -61.4 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have fallen from high levels. There is still an expectation of a decline due to oversupply. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the weak fundamentals of PE are being traded, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. Supply is expected to rise steadily, demand is in the off - season, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [2] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested, the futures price has corrected from a high level. The supply - side may see more maintenance, demand support may weaken, and the overall inventory level is still high. The short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the off - season demand may limit the rebound space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE is neutral, and PP is neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [4] - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [4]