Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices will maintain a volatile trend. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to supply disruptions under safety requirements and the replenishment demand of non - power coal [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - As of October 11, the Yulin 5800 - calorie index was 567.0 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - calorie index was 510.0 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - calorie index was 575.0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI Import 4700 index was reported at 70.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index was reported at 54.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [1][5] Supply - In the producing areas, coal mines have resumed production relatively quickly but have not reached full - load production. The import coal market remained stable overall, and quotes were firm due to the rainy season in Indonesia [1][8] Consumption - In the short term, there is insufficient demand support for coal prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [2][9] Inventory - As of October 11, the total inventory of northern ports was 23.37 million tons, an increase of 2.06 million tons from the previous week. The coal inventory of 6 coastal power plants was 14.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons; the average available days were 16 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1 day; the daily consumption of 6 coastal power plants was 867,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [1][12] Strategy - Not provided

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 仓单注册叠加宏观情绪偏弱 多晶硅短期偏弱运行 工业硅：短期供需偏宽松，盘面偏震荡运行 市场分析 价格：10月10日当周，本周工业硅期货维持震荡运行，主力合约小幅震荡。现货方面，10月供应端维持增长，节 后工业硅现货成交价格小幅回落。据SMM统计，10月10日，SMM华东不通氧553#在9200-9400元/吨；通氧553#在 9400-9500元/吨；521#在9500-9700元/吨；441#在9600-9700元/吨；421#在9600-9800元/吨；421#有机硅用在9800-10300 元/吨；3303#在10500-10600元/吨。 供应：本周供应端增加，周度产量小幅增加，根据SMM统计，样本厂家周度产量6.18万吨，环比增加3600吨。根 据百川统计数据，目前金属硅总炉数 796 台，本周金属硅开炉数量与上周相比增加 3 台，截至 10月 10 日，中国 金属硅开工炉数 313 台，整体开炉率 39.32%。 需求：下游铝合金方面，本周铝板带箔产量 208845 吨，产量较上周减少。铝棒产量 297675 吨，产量较上周增 加约 3150 吨，产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the global nickel surplus pattern remains difficult to change, with increasing inventory, and prices will mainly oscillate within a platform range. For stainless steel, after the destocking ends, cost support weakens, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating state [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices fluctuating between 121,220 - 124,880 yuan/ton and finally closing at 121,800 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase from last week. Due to the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector during the National Day and the impact of Indonesia's new nickel ore policy, the price of Shanghai nickel opened higher and moved higher on October 9th, but the spot market trading was light, and the price quickly fell on October 10th. After the decline, downstream enterprises increased their purchases and the transaction improved. The latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium to the mainstream of Shanghai nickel 2511 decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area increased by 1,100 yuan/ton compared with last week [1]. - **Macro**: The US federal government shutdown on October 1st increased the uncertainty of the global economic outlook. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in October led to the strengthening of the US dollar index to 106.5 and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate to 7.35, which put downward pressure on prices. During the National Day, China introduced new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure, strengthening the medium - and long - term demand expectation of new energy and high - end manufacturing for key metals. Coupled with the market's expectation of more "steady - growth" policies in the fourth quarter, the risk preference of the basic metals sector significantly increased [1]. Supply - The nickel ore market was relatively calm this week, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the rainy season is approaching in mining areas such as Surigao, and mines have gradually stopped shipping. Iron plants' profits have been hit, and they have maintained a cautious attitude towards purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remains in a loose pattern. However, the Indonesian government has shortened the mining license period from 3 years to 1 year, which has short - term concerns about the supply stability in 2026 and later. Although the 2025 quota is still valid, the policy adjustment has added variables to the medium - and long - term production capacity release [2]. Consumption - In September, the demand for stainless steel and battery materials remained basically stable, and the nickel consumption of alloys and special steels increased to some extent. However, considering that "Golden September and Silver October" is the traditional consumption peak season, the overall consumption growth was lower than expected [2]. Cost and Profit - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP is 116,448 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4.40%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated high - matte nickel is 124,802 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2.60%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate is 137,134 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.50%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased MHP is 137,839 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.90%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased high - matte nickel is 132,859 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7.60% [2]. Inventory - This week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, a decrease of 504 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 237,378 tons, a decrease of 204 tons from last week; the nickel inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 3,700 tons, remaining unchanged from last week; the refined nickel inventory in China (including the free - trade zone) was 45,630 tons, a decrease of 1,371 tons from last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: Maintain the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - and long - term; Options: None [4]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contract of stainless steel futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 12,805 yuan/ton on Friday, a 55 - yuan increase from last week's 12,750 yuan/ton. In the first week after the festival, the spot market continued the pre - festival light situation, with poor transaction conditions and small fluctuations in overall quotes [4]. - **Macro**: During the festival, the US government shutdown increased the capital's risk - aversion demand, pushing up the overall price of commodity futures. Coupled with the expectation of two more Fed interest - rate cuts this year, it was generally positive for commodity prices. The cultural and tourism consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investment plans introduced during the National Day enhanced the market's confidence in the economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The collective strength of the basic metals sector drove the stainless steel futures to rise [4]. Supply - As "Golden September and Silver October" is coming to an end, the stainless steel operating rate remains at a high level. Some steel mills are still operating at full capacity to complete their annual production plans. At the same time, due to the low inventory of steel mills, some shut - down steel mills have adjusted and resumed production. It is expected that the output will continue to increase in October [5]. Consumption - In the new energy sector, the demand for battery cases and photovoltaic brackets has increased to some extent, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The main downstream industries such as home appliances, machinery, and construction have a low willingness to purchase stainless steel. Especially the home appliance industry, affected by the continuous downturn of the real estate market, the sales growth of kitchen appliances, sanitary equipment and other products is slow, reducing the demand for stainless steel sheets [5]. Cost and Profit - This week, the purchase prices of high - nickel ferrochrome and high - carbon ferrochrome both decreased, driving down the cost of stainless steel. As of October 10th, the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the short - process was 13,078 yuan/ton, a - 0.66% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the process of purchasing high - nickel ferrochrome externally was 14,258 yuan/ton, a - 0.52% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the integrated process was 13,783 yuan/ton, a 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Inventory - On August 29th, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the national mainstream market was 1,053,646 tons, a + 7.97% week - on - week change. The total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 624,731 tons, a + 6.14% week - on - week change. The total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 428,915 tons, a + 10.74% week - on - week change. The stainless steel inventory has continued to decline for eight consecutive weeks and has basically returned to the beginning - of - year level [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of steel remain weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The output of building materials continues to decline, the inventory accumulation rate is higher than in previous years, the downstream replenishment demand is significantly weakened, the demand shows no obvious improvement, and the peak - season demand is limited. The profit of plate mills does not strongly drive production cuts, and the inventory of plates has increased significantly during holidays. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the main contract 2601 of rebar closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, and the main contract 2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,285 yuan/ton [1][4] Supply - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week and an increase of 84,600 tons compared with last year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 37,600 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar output was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the previous period; the hot - rolled coil output was 3.2329 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period [1][21] Consumption - According to Mysteel data, the total apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 7.3545 million tons, a decrease of 1.6937 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons from the previous period; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 2.9009 million tons, a decrease of 336,400 tons from the previous period [1][24] Inventory - According to Mysteel data, the total inventory of the five major steel products this week reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. The rebar inventory this week was 6.5964 million tons, a weekly increase of 573,900 tons; the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.129 million tons, a weekly increase of 190,200 tons [1][29] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation after the holiday and the support of raw material costs. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

化工周报 | 2025-10-12 TA方面，中国 PTA 开工率74.4%（环比上周-2.4%），PTA现货加工费199元/吨（较上周54）。本周PTA装置下降， 逸盛新材料降负，恒力大连按计划停车检修，检修增多下加工费修复但受压制。PTA10~11月检修计划增多以及新 装置投产推迟下累库幅度缩窄，近端基本面好转，但新装置投产预期仍在，12月累库压力较大。市场现货供应较 为充裕；节前备货下需求小幅提振，长丝产销改善明显，但聚酯负荷提升高度有限，关注需求回暖持续性。 需求方面，本周江浙织机开机率70.0%（环比上周+0.0%），聚酯开工率91.5%（环比上周+0.0%）。9月下旬织造加 弹负荷提升，订单边际好转，叠加国庆节前补库需求，长丝产销明显放量，聚酯工厂产品库存大幅去化，坯布库 存得以明显去化，但成品库存依然季节性偏高，国庆市场归于平静，长丝再度累库，终端原料采购上预计整体仍 维持谨慎观望居多，关注后续需求好转的持续时间。当前聚酯工厂库存不高，预计10月聚酯平均负荷仍可维持在 91%附近，天气降温刚需支撑仍存，关注加工费修复下瓶片是否会重启。 中美关税战再度发酵，成本端大幅下跌 市场分析 成本端，本周油 ...

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 矿端扰动减弱，短期消费支撑价格 市场分析 现货市场 价格方面：碳酸锂期货本周维持震荡运行，主力合约2511本周五收于 72740元/吨，本周跌幅为0.08%，持仓量为 221919吨。SMM电池级碳酸锂均价73,550元/吨；工业级碳酸锂均价71,300元/吨，现货价格基本持平。现货成交稍 有好转，但多数观望为主。截至本周五，所有合约总持仓 68.17万手。截至本周五，碳酸锂当日仓单 42379 手， 仓单数量较多。 供应端：据 SMM 统计，周度产量小幅增加，周度总产量 2.06 万吨，环比增加 119 吨，其中辉石产碳酸锂 13064 吨，环比增加 75吨，云母产碳酸锂2695 吨，环比减少145 吨，盐湖产碳酸锂 2904 吨，环比增加 141 吨，回收产 碳酸锂 1972吨，整体来看，供应端仍保持较高水平。 消费端：据百川数据，磷酸铁锂产量环比降低0.04%，三元材料环比增加0.48%。钴酸锂环比增加0.12%，锰酸锂环 比增长5.64%。下游排产维持增量预期。终端动储双增，下游需求维持高位，但节后下游散单采购需求较弱，多观 望市场走势，仅少数刚需采购， ...

大豆市场分析 农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 需求清淡，供给压力逐步凸显 风险 市场分析 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，本周豆一主力合约2601收盘价3948元/吨，环比上涨44元，涨幅1.13%。现货方面，巴彦地区食用豆 现货基差A01+267，较上周下跌26；宝清地区食用豆基差A01+247，较上周下跌26；富锦地区食用豆现货基差 A01+187，较上周下跌26；尚志地区食用豆现货基差A01+247，较上周下跌26。 据Mysteel调研显示，国庆期间东北各地新季大豆上市增量，今年大豆蛋白含量偏低，高蛋白货源稀少，优质优价， 企业陆续开始收购。到港预估：Mysteel 农产品根据发船数据对大豆月度到港预估，2025 年9 月巴西大豆对中国 到港859 万吨，阿根廷大豆对中国到港155 万吨，美国大豆对中国到港为0 万吨，共计1014 万吨。 无 本周国产价格震荡，国产大豆现货市场价格以稳为主，低蛋白价格表现弱稳，主因今年蛋白含量偏低，高蛋白货 源较为抢收，市场两极分化。目前南方部分地区因天气影响收割时间或将推迟10 天左右。总体来看，东北地区丰 产预期以及下游需求暂未见明显回暖，短期国产豆价承压运行 ...

油脂周报 | 2025-10-12 中美贸易摩擦再起，油脂行情或波动加大 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2601合约9438元/吨，环比上涨210元，涨幅2.28%；本周收盘豆油2601合约8302元 /吨，环比上涨162元，涨幅1.99%；本周收盘菜油2601合约10161元/吨，环比上涨17元，涨幅0.17%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格9440元/吨，环比上涨360元，涨幅3.96%，现货基差P01+2，环比上涨150元；天津地 区一级豆油现货价格8520元/吨，环比上涨230元/吨，涨幅2.77%，现货基差Y01+218，环比上涨68元；江苏地 区四级菜油现货价格10330元/吨，环比上涨50元，涨幅0.49%，现货基差OI01+269，环比上涨33元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，10月10日(周五)，MPOB报告显示，马来西亚9月棕榈油产量184.12万吨，环比减少0.74%。近两周 （9.26-10.9）国内新增 8 条买船，其中 1 条 10 月，5 条 11 月，2 条 12 月；无新增洗船。截至 10 月 9 日当周连盘棕榈开盘大幅补涨，期价跟随马棕走势， ...

纯苯苯乙烯周报 | 2025-10-12 苯乙烯检修量级仍可，但下旬投产继续释放 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 EB港口到港及提货：华东苯乙烯到港量3.92万吨（+0.09）；华东苯乙烯港口提货量3.48万吨（+0.75）。 EB供应：苯乙烯工厂开工率73.61%（+2.37%），其中：华东苯乙烯开工率68.07%（+2.72%），山东苯乙烯开工率75.54% （+0.43%），华南苯乙烯开工率82.70%（+7.62%）。 EB下游开工及成品库存：EPS开工率40.74%（-2.37%），PS开工率54.60%（-1.70%），ABS开工率72.50%（+1.50%）， UPR开工率20.00%（-8.00%），丁苯橡胶开工率70.40%（+0.03%）；EPS样本企业库存30500吨（-800），PS样本企业 库存108700吨（+19340），ABS样本企业库存251000吨（+7400），丁苯橡胶样本企业库存20500吨（+0）。 EB库存：苯乙烯华东港口库存201900吨（+4400），苯乙烯工厂库存193863吨（-9411）。 纯苯库存及供应：纯苯华东港口库存9.10万吨（-1.50）。 ...

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-10-12 聚烯烃节后大幅累库，价格承压偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7037元/吨（-40），PP主力合约收盘价为6722元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（-10），PP华东现货为6670元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为-37元/吨（+40），LL 华东基差为73元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-42元/吨（-47）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为542.8元/吨（+157.6），PP油制生产利润为-127.2元/吨（+157.6），PDH制PP生产 利润为-99.0元/吨（-270.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为10.8元/吨（+52.2），PP进口利润为-547.8元/吨（-73.5），PP出口利润为17.5美元/吨（+9.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游B ...