FICC日报 | 2025-11-26 人民币汇率稳步走强，美联储降息预期强化 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓。11 月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措 施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。国务院新闻办公室定于2025年11月27日（星期四）上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹 风会，介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施有关情况。1 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-26 继续关注伊朗装置冬检进展 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润583元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1988元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差521元/吨（+10），内蒙南线1970元/吨（+50）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+5）， 鲁南基差318元/吨（+15）；河南2065元/吨（+25），河南基差198元/吨（+35）；河北2125元/吨（+45），河北基差318 元/吨（+55）。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨（-10550），西北工厂库存188500吨（-17000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 246320吨（+920），西北工厂待发订单125400吨（+8900）。 内地方面，西南卡贝乐开始限气停车，但同时久泰托县重新复工，内地供应压力仍偏高；MTO方面，阳煤MTO检 修中，鲁西MTO低负荷状态；关注联泓二期MTO年底投产进度。传统下游方面，醋酸开工仍维持低位，甲醛淡季 低负荷，仅MTBE开工偏高。 策略 港口方面：太仓甲醇2060元/吨（+7），太仓基差-7元/吨（+17），CFR中国23 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and geopolitical factors have led to copper price fluctuations. However, lower prices have boosted downstream purchasing, and short hedging positions have been unwound, providing support at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level. Buying hedges can be made at this level, and selling hedges can be made above 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,080 yuan/ton and closed at 86,600 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 86,350 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 86,330 to 86,890 yuan/ton. After the copper price rose above 86,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing slowed. It is expected that today's spot trading will remain stalemated [2]. Important Information Summaries - **Inflation Data**: In September, US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month, with a slowdown and lower - than - expected growth [3]. - **Fiscal Data**: In October, the US federal government budget deficit reached $284 billion due to the government "shutdown". The release of the 2026 fiscal year's first - month budget results was postponed [3]. - **Fed Information**: The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. A Fed official called for significant interest rate cuts [3]. - **Mine - end News**: DPM Metals faces pressure to abandon its $600 million Loma Larga gold - copper project in Ecuador. Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru has produced 1 million tons of copper since 2022, with an expected output of 310,000 - 340,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The global copper processing pricing mechanism is changing. The long - standing annual benchmark pricing system may be adjusted, with a trend towards more bilateral agreements and price - range settings [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points to 70.07%, and is expected to reach 72.74% next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 1.32 percentage points to 65.68% and is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 156,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 2,851 tons to 40,965 tons. On November 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: SMM 1 copper premium was 80 yuan/ton, down from 85 yuan/ton the previous day [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 156,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 110,603 tons, and COMEX inventory was 371,388 tons [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 40,965 tons, down from 43,816 tons the previous day [28]. - **Arbitrage and Import Profit**: The import profit was - 1,027 yuan, and the copper - to - aluminum and copper - to - zinc arbitrage ratios also changed [29].

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面，美国财政部表示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元；财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示，由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天，导致部分款项（例如政 府雇员的工资）的支付延迟，2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面，美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段，美国财政部长贝森特称，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外，美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称，当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展，美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-25，沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于946.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the pure benzene market, with the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing and the resumption of refinery operations, the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmical arrival of pure benzene at ports increases the pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories at the beginning of the week, which suppresses the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with the operation rate of phenol rising, while those of aniline and adipic acid declining. Styrene is still in the maintenance period and is expected to resume operations at the end of the month [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories did not continue to decline, and the arrival of goods increased rhythmically. Styrene is still in the low - operation maintenance stage, and the resumption plan has been postponed. Attention now shifts to the downstream. Currently, downstream operations are still at a low level. The operation rate of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, is expected to further decline at the end of the year, while those of ABS and PS are slightly rising from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only mentioned figures related to pure benzene's basis and futures contracts, and EB's basis and spreads [1][7][12] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 101 dollars/ton (-10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 89 dollars/ton (-9 dollars/ton). The profit of downstream products varies, with caprolactam at -850 yuan/ton (+275), phenol - acetone at -415 yuan/ton (+0), aniline at 499 yuan/ton (+3), and adipic acid at -1245 yuan/ton (+23) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is -223 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operation Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 tons (+1.70 tons), and the downstream operation rate is generally low, with the phenol operation rate rising, and those of aniline and adipic acid falling [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+15,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+6,900 tons), and the operation rate is 69.0% (-0.3%). It is still in the maintenance period, and the resumption plan is postponed [1][2]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 105 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), operation rate is 56.27% (+4.64%); PS production profit is 5 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), operation rate is 55.90% (+0.50%); ABS production profit is -493 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), operation rate is 72.40% (+0.60%). EPS is expected to have a further decline in operation rate at the end of the year, while ABS and PS have a slight increase from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [1][2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam operation rate is 88.23% (+2.18%), phenol operation rate is 79.00% (+12.00%), aniline operation rate is 75.68% (-4.49%), adipic acid operation rate is 55.50% (-6.50%). The production profits of downstream products vary as mentioned above [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Basis and Inter - Period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices. - Cross - Variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn has weakened the cost - side support for propylene. With the expectation of a loose propylene supply - demand situation remaining unchanged, the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. The supply side has some short - term support due to PDH device maintenance, while the demand side's support may decline as the price increase squeezes downstream profits. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China propylene basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong propylene market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves figures such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][19][22] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - This part contains figures on the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profits [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Capacity Utilization - It includes the production profits and capacity utilization rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][50][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section has figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply-demand gap is narrowing, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] Core View - Upstream maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in propylene production. Meanwhile, downstream production resumption has led to an overall increase in downstream operations, narrowing the supply-demand gap of propylene and improving spot market trading. However, the expectation of a loose propylene supply-demand situation remains unchanged, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, so the market remains in a low-level oscillation. The supply-side reduction provides short-term support for prices, and the demand-side support for propylene has strengthened, but it may decline. The cost side of propylene has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 5,881 yuan/ton (+74), the spot price of propylene in East China is 5,945 yuan/ton (+20), the spot price of propylene in North China is 5,925 yuan/ton (-15), the basis of propylene in East China is 64 yuan/ton (-54), and the basis of propylene in North China is 8 yuan/ton (-86) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate of propylene is 88% (+14%), the CFR of Chinese propylene - CFR of Japanese naphtha is 173 US dollars/ton (+21), and the CFR of propylene - 1.2 CFR of propane is 59 US dollars/ton (+10) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is -331 yuan/ton (-89) [1] 4. Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is -255 yuan/ton (-45); the capacity utilization rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the capacity utilization rate of n-butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is -286 yuan/ton (+9); the capacity utilization rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is -138 yuan/ton (+111); the capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 479 yuan/ton (-14); the capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is -296 yuan/ton (+5); the capacity utilization rate of phenol-ketone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is -415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in-plant inventory of propylene is 45,040 tons (-2,150) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

油脂日报 | 2025-11-25 油脂缺乏指引，承压持续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8486.00元/吨，环比变化-64元，幅度-0.75%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8168.00 元/吨，环比变化-22.00元，幅度-0.27%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9778.00元/吨，环比变化-38.00元，幅度-0.39%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化-150.00元，幅度-1.74%，现货基差P01-36.00，环比变化-86.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8360.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y01+192.00，环比变 化+2.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10100.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差OI01+322.00， 环比变化-32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对中国出售123000吨大豆，于2025/2026年 度交货。美国大豆、玉米的市场年度始于9月1日。据外媒报道，咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四， ...