Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, leading to significant pressure on Chinese imports and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The MTO plant in Xingxing has a pending maintenance plan, and attention should also be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry in traditional downstream sectors is in a seasonal off - season, the operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable, and the inland demand shows strong resilience. The inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant, resulting in a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report includes figures showing the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol spot in different regions against the main futures contract, and the inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][10][20]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures are presented for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [24][25][29]. 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory The report shows figures related to the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall operation rate of Chinese methanol production (including integrated plants) [32][33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences Figures are provided for various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [37][45][48]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55][57]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell short and hedge on the 09 contract when the price is high [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both the apple and red date industries are rated as neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, due to the low remaining inventory at the production areas and the expected new - season production being similar to last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [4] - For the red date industry, as it is at the annual consumption low, with both futures and spot prices at historical lows, light spot trading, high inventory, and high sensitivity of funds to the new - season growth, chasing long positions requires caution, and close attention should be paid to the new - season growth [8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7835 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.95 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 65, a change of + 5 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 1765, a change of + 5 from the previous day [1] Red Date - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10380 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton (+ 0.14%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ01 - 1780, a change of - 15 from the previous day [6] Market Analysis Apple - Production Areas: The national main production areas' weekly shipment speed was similar to the previous week and slower than the same period last year, and the current inventory is at a five - year low. Different production areas had different situations. For example, in Shandong, some prices of general and lower - grade goods decreased slightly but with limited transactions; in Shaanxi, the transaction was stable and light with limited remaining goods; in Gansu, the shipment slowed down; and some secondary production areas were in the clearing stage [3] - Sales Areas: The number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased slightly. Seasonal fruits had a significant impact, and the terminal digestion slowed down, with second - and third - level wholesalers purchasing as needed [3] Red Date - Production Areas: The main production areas' jujube trees are in the flowering and fruit - setting stage. Some orchards had average first - flower fruit - setting, and there is a potential yield reduction expectation. The market has different views on the yield, and attention should be paid to the second - and third - flower fruit - setting [7] - Sales Areas: The total inventory is at a multi - year high, and it is the traditional off - season. Seasonal fruits' supply increases, and the tonic demand weakens. After the price increase, downstream purchases to replenish safety stocks as needed. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly last week [7] Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Given the current situation, focus on the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [4] Red Date - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be cautious when chasing long positions and closely monitor the new - season growth [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures maintain a certain premium, with strong downstream demand for pure benzene, leading to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. High开工 rates of styrene and CPL support demand, and the increase in polymer MDI开工 drives up aniline开工. However, the sustainability of high CPL开工 is questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament开工. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic开工 is still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly, and the EB basis is further weakening. Domestically, EB maintains a high开工 rate. In terms of demand, EPS开工 is increasing, but there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, suppressing their开工 rates. - The recommended trading strategies are to remain on the sidelines for pure benzene, and to sell short styrene at high prices for hedging. For basis and inter - period spreads, conduct reverse hedging for near - month BZ paper goods against distant - end BZ2603 futures at high prices; conduct reverse inter - period spreads for EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510. For cross - variety spreads, narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 202 yuan/ton (+4), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 85 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract is also provided in the figures [1][11]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 116 yuan/ton (- 61 yuan/ton), and the inter - period spreads between EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510 are recommended for reverse hedging [1][3]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 143 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 128.9 dollars/ton (- 24.1 dollars/ton). Downstream production profits include - 1818 yuan/ton (+42) for caprolactam, - 667 yuan/ton (+0) for phenol - acetone, - 97 yuan/ton (+74) for aniline, and - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][3]. 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 million tons (- 1.00 million tons), and the开工 rate of downstream products such as caprolactam is 91.72% (- 4.00%), phenol is 81.00% (+3.00%), aniline is 75.86% (+4.96%), and adipic acid is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the开工 rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 324 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 53.18% (+2.12%). - PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%). - ABS production profit is 490 yuan/ton (+77 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream开工 is at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam开工 rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%), and the production profit is - 1818 yuan/ton (+42). - Phenol - acetone开工 rate is 81.00% (+3.00%), and the production profit is - 667 yuan/ton (+0). - Aniline开工 rate is 75.86% (+4.96%), and the production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74). - Adipic acid开工 rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%), and the production profit is - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the stock index options market on July 16, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), offering insights into the market's trading activity, sentiment, and volatility [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On July 16, 2025, the trading volumes of various stock index options were as follows: 1.2989 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 1.6127 million for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), 1.7378 million for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), 0.0919 million for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 1.5473 million for GEM ETF options, 0.0424 million for SSE 50 stock index options, 0.0969 million for CSI 300 stock index options, and 0.2556 million for CSI 1000 options [1]. - Breakdown of trading volume shows call and put volumes for each option type, such as 0.6264 million call and 0.6725 million put for SSE 50 ETF options [20]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, are reported for each option type. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.83 with a + 0.01环比 change, and the position PCR was 1.02 with a - 0.05环比 change [2][29]. Option VIX - The VIX values and their环比 changes are provided for different options. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 14.99% with a - 0.10%环比 change [3][45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Suspended [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the expansion of the Comex - LME spread under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to the decline of copper prices in non - US markets. The domestic copper price is temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,950 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 95 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 77,970 - 78,150 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, but the regional price difference may widen [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Trump showed a draft letter to fire the Fed Chairman Powell. Traders believe the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 50%. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 - trillion - dollar) budget plan. China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year [3]. - Mine end: On July 16, Antofagasta's Q2 2025 copper production was 160,100 tons, up 3% quarter - on - quarter, and gold production was 48,300 ounces, up 13% quarter - on - quarter [4]. - Smelting and import: In May 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3775 million tons, with a supply surplus of 84,200 tons. Freeport Indonesia expects 2025 copper concentrate production to be 2.964 million tons, lower than the previous forecast [5]. - Consumption: On July 16, the copper rod order volume of 31 domestic copper rod producers and 6 traders was 14,000 tons, down 9.38% from the previous day [6]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 121,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 109 tons to 50,242 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons [6]. 2. Strategy - Copper: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait and see for now [7]. - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [7]. - Options: Suspend operations [7]. 3. Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profitability, and price ratios over different time periods (July 17, 2025; July 16, 2025; July 10, 2025; June 17, 2025) [26][27][28].

Industry Overview Upstream - International oil prices fluctuated slightly, and PTA prices declined [2] Midstream - The operating rates of polyester and PX stopped falling [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were at a low level in recent years, and the number of domestic flights during the summer vacation increased [4] Industry Events Production Industry - A symposium on research and consultation on comprehensively expanding domestic demand was held in Beijing on July 16 to discuss the research results of key investigations by relevant central committees of democratic parties, the All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and personages without party affiliation. Wang Huning emphasized forming more in - depth research results and promoting their application and transformation [1] Service Industry - On July 16, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which studied key policy measures to strengthen the domestic cycle, listened to reports on the preliminary rectification of problems found in the audit of the implementation of the central budget and other fiscal revenues and expenditures in 2024, and the standardization of the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, and reviewed and approved a draft decision to revise the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry showed different degrees of change on July 17. For example, the credit spread of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery decreased from 87.36 to 49.06, and that of mining decreased from 33.33 to 29.32 [50] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 15, prices of various industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn decreased by 1.21% year - on - year to 2331.4 yuan/ton, and the spot price of copper decreased by 2.12% year - on - year to 78135.0 yuan/ton [51]

1. Report's Core View - On July 16, 2025, the market liquidity of various sectors showed different trends. The trading volume and holding amount of most sectors decreased compared with the previous trading day, except for the precious metals and agricultural products sectors where the trading volume increased and decreased respectively [1]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Plate Liquidity - The trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors are presented. The trading volume of the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors decreased compared with the previous trading day, while the precious metals sector increased. The holding amount of the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metals, and energy - chemical sectors decreased, while the agricultural product and black building materials sectors increased [1][2]. 2.2 Stock Index Plate - The trading volume was 5302.90 billion yuan, a - 9.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 10531.07 billion yuan, a - 4.59% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.94% [1]. 2.3 Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 2730.65 billion yuan, a - 16.66% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 9053.78 billion yuan, a - 1.06% change; the trading - holding ratio was 30.82% [1]. 2.4 Basic Metal and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metal trading volume was 3933.48 billion yuan, a - 20.09% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4787.29 billion yuan, a - 1.22% change; the trading - holding ratio was 110.74%. The precious metals trading volume was 3938.69 billion yuan, a + 9.12% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4470.89 billion yuan, a - 1.42% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.91% [1]. 2.5 Energy - Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 4056.98 billion yuan, a - 24.35% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4414.66 billion yuan, a - 0.41% change; the trading - holding ratio was 70.98% [1]. 2.6 Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 2561.87 billion yuan, a - 5.68% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5769.12 billion yuan, a + 1.25% change; the trading - holding ratio was 37.73% [1]. 2.7 Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 2107.60 billion yuan, a - 17.53% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3808.82 billion yuan, a + 0.47% change; the trading - holding ratio was 52.61% [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-17 氧化铝仓单库存增加对价格施压 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20520元/吨，较上一交易日上涨10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨50元/吨至100元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20380元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨40元/吨至-50元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20510元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨40元/吨至80元 /吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-16日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨，收于20475元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨85元/ 吨，涨幅0.42%，最高价达20480元/吨，最低价达到20370元/吨。全天交易日成交73249手，较上一交易日减少 30346手，全天交易日持仓194458手，较上一交易日减少10736手。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-16 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3165元/吨，山东价格录得3150元/吨，广西价格录得 3250元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得366美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-16氧化铝主力合约开于3175元/吨，收于311 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, but in the long - term, the cotton market will be in a supply - surplus pattern, and cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating within a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is maintained [5] - The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of July 11, India's new - season cotton sown area was 9.3 million hectares, about 2.1% less than the same period last year. In May 2025, US wholesalers' clothing and clothing fabric sales were $14.005 billion, up 8.11% year - on - year and 1.94% month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report was bearish, and the 25/26 global cotton market will be in a supply - loose pattern. The USDA raised the forecast of US cotton production, and the US cotton balance sheet is unlikely to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and weather disturbances support the recent rise of Zhengzhou cotton. However, domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, and new cotton is growing well. The weak off - season demand restricts the upward space of cotton prices, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.10%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: ICRA expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season [3] Market Analysis - International: The market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 season. The long - term downward pressure on raw sugar remains, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [4] - Domestic: The fast sales of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory support the spot price. However, the rebound of import profit and expected import increase will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,242 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.38%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Market News: The price of imported wood pulp showed a weakening trend, with some softwood pulp prices falling and some hardwood pulp prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year. High port inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: Paper pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak, and domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season. The planned increase in finished paper production capacity has not led to a significant increase in demand, and terminal demand is expected to improve only slightly in the second half of the year [7]

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-17 资金面宽松，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀： ...