Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: Nanhua Metal Daily: Gold Hits New High, Focus on Fed FOMC [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise due to the optimism ahead of the Fed's September FOMC meeting, including expectations of rate cuts and a pause in balance - sheet reduction, as well as uncertainty over US precious - metal tariff policies. Major surrounding assets rose, and the dollar fell. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $3,719.5 per ounce, up 0.9%; Comex Silver 2512 contract closed at $42.19 per ounce, up 0.84%. SHFE Gold 2510 contract closed at 831.6 yuan per gram, up 0.1%; SHFE Silver 2510 contract closed at 10,017 yuan per kilogram, up 0.88% [2] - The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook. Trump - nominated Fed Governor nominee Milan's appointment was confirmed and can attend this week's FOMC meeting. China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue [2] Group 3: Rate - Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Traders expect the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a 25 - basis - point cut likely in September. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 4.1% [3] - The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by October is 23.1%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 73.8%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 3.1%. By December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 1.9%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 27.2%, a 75 - basis - point cut is 68.1%, and a 100 - basis - point cut is 2.9% [3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.01 tons to 976.81 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15,069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.1 tons to 1,243.5 tons; SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1,248.3 tons this week [3] Group 4: This Week's Focus - Light data this week, mainly pay attention to US retail sales data on Tuesday night. Focus on the Fed's FOMC announcement of the interest - rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday; Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30. Also, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 on Thursday. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision on Friday. Trump will visit the UK on a state visit [3] Group 5: Nanhua's View - Medium - to long - term outlook is likely bullish. Short - term, London gold and silver weekly lines continue to close with positive candles, indicating that the strong pattern is expected to continue. London gold support is at 3,600, strong support at 3,500, resistance at 3,700, then 3,800. For London silver, focus on the support at the 40 - integer mark, with the upper target raised to the 44 - 45 area. Maintain the idea of buying on dips, and hold existing long positions cautiously [3] Group 6: Precious Metal Price Table - SHFE Gold Main - continuous: 831.6 yuan per gram, down 2.62 yuan, down 0.31% - SGX Gold TD: 828.03 yuan per gram, down 2.31 yuan, down 0.28% - CME Gold Main: $3,719.5 per ounce, up $38.8, up 1.05% - SHFE Silver Main - continuous: 10,017 yuan per kilogram, down 18 yuan, down 0.18% - SGX Silver TD: 9,994 yuan per kilogram, down 40 yuan, down 0.4% - CME Silver Main: $43.19 per ounce, up $0.51, up 1.19% - SHFE - TD Gold: 3.57 yuan per gram, down 0.31 yuan, down 7.99% - SHFE - TD Silver: 23 yuan per kilogram, up 22 yuan, down 96.15% - CME Gold - Silver Ratio: 86.1195, down 0.12, down 0.14% [5] Group 7: Inventory and Position Table - SHFE Gold inventory: 53,226 kilograms, up 276 kilograms, up 0.52% - CME Gold inventory: 1,218.6641 tons, up 8.2872 tons, up 0.68% - SHFE Gold position: 104,349 lots, down 4,918 lots, down 4.5% - SPDR Gold position: 976.81 tons, up 2.01 tons, up 0.21% - SHFE Silver inventory: 1,243.481 tons, down 3.088 tons, down 0.25% - CME Silver inventory: 16,411.6893 tons, up 6.9809 tons, up 0.04% - SGX Silver inventory: 1,248.255 tons, down 35.355 tons, down 2.75% - SHFE Silver position: 204,407 lots, down 14,921 lots, down 6.8% - SLV Silver position: 15,069.602597 tons, down 67.772 tons, down 0.45% [15][17] Group 8: Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - US Dollar Index: 97.3236, down 0.2914, down 0.3% - USD/CNY: 7.1173, down 0.0027, down 0.04% - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 45,883.45 points, up 49.23 points, up 0.11% - WTI Crude Oil Spot: $63.3 per barrel, up $0.61, up 0.97% - LmeS Copper 03: $10,189 per ton, up $124.5, up 1.24% - 10 - Year US Treasury Yield: 4.05%, down 0.01%, down 0.25% - 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate: 1.68%, down 0.02%, down 1.18% - 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread: 0.51%, up 0.01%, up 2% [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economy needs government support. Consumption - related policies will continue. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market focuses on the Fed's actions [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index shows a risk of downward break - out. The RMB against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate weakly and converge to the central parity rate [2]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the stock index. It will be affected by the Fed's rate - cut decision [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Focus on Sino - US economic talks and the Fed's September meeting. Hold long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping**: The decline of SCFIS European line has slightly converged. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Short - term intraday operations are recommended [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term may be bullish. Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][11]. - **Copper**: It will be in a high - level consolidation. The price may be around 81,000 yuan per ton in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum**: It will be oscillating strongly. The weekly price range is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Alumina**: It will be in a weak operation. Recommend shorting on rallies [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It will be oscillating strongly. The price difference with aluminum is between 400 - 500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Zinc**: It will mainly oscillate [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are strongly affected by the mining end. Short - term, they are in a bottom - strengthening oscillation [17]. - **Tin**: It will be in a high - level oscillation around 274,000 yuan per ton [20]. - **Lead**: It will be in a high - level oscillation. Be cautious about chasing high prices [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - level drives upward. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, but the macro - drive is strong, and the price shows an oscillatingly strong trend [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment has recovered. The price will oscillate within a limited range before the National Day [26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The overall supply is becoming more relaxed. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [28]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and will be strong in the short term. Try to go long on specific contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a small rebound. Supply pressure dominates. Recommend shorting on rallies [31]. - **LPG**: Driven by the macro - level, the price goes up. The external market provides support [33]. - **PTA - PX**: They oscillate with the cost and the macro - environment. PTA processing fees are expected to be repaired [36]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: They are oscillating strongly in the short term due to macro - warming [37]. - **Methanol**: Reduce long positions. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. - **PP**: The downside space is limited. Recommend going long on dips [42]. - **PE**: The demand recovers slowly. It will maintain an oscillating pattern [45]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see. The current fundamentals are poor, but the short - selling willingness of funds is low [46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with the cost. It is not advisable to continue shorting [46]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month contract [47]. - **Asphalt**: It is pushed up by the "anti - involution" concept. The short - term peak season is not outstanding. Consider long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a pattern of having support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [49]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. The price is restricted by high inventory [50]. - **Glass**: The price lacks a clear trend. Pay attention to supply - side ignition, cost, and demand seasonality [51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is weakening. Pay attention to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [52]. - **Pulp**: It rebounds with the commodity sentiment. Recommend buying on dips [53]. - **Propylene**: The futures and spot prices diverge. The futures are driven up by the macro - level, while the spot weakens [55]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Policy disturbances emerge again [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economic data in August shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". Policies in the consumption field will continue. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market focuses on the Fed's actions [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index shows a risk of downward break - out. The RMB against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate weakly and converge to the central parity rate. Enterprises are given corresponding exchange - rate operation suggestions [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the stock index. It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut decision, but the downward space is limited [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is less affected by the A - share market. The economic data in August is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US economic talks and the Fed's September meeting. Hold long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping**: The decline of SCFIS European line has slightly converged. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Short - term intraday operations are recommended [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price rises due to the Fed's easing expectations. The market focuses on the Fed's actions and tariff policies. Long - term, it may be bullish. Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][11]. - **Copper**: The price is affected by the US inflation data and the Fed's rate - cut expectations. It will be in a high - level consolidation in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum**: It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the improvement of fundamentals. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the early peak season [14]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The price may be weak in the short term. Recommend shorting on rallies [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum. It will be oscillating strongly [16]. - **Zinc**: It is mainly oscillating. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are strongly affected by the mining end. The fundamentals are stable. Short - term, they are in a bottom - strengthening oscillation [17]. - **Tin**: It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations. It will be in a high - level oscillation around 274,000 yuan per ton in the short term [20]. - **Lead**: The price reaches a two - month high. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is average. Short - term, the upward space is limited. Be cautious about chasing high prices [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - level drives upward. The current steel inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market has expectations for peak - season demand. The price shows an oscillatingly strong trend [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment has recovered. The iron - water output has limited room for further increase. The price is expected to oscillate within a limited range before the National Day [26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The supply is becoming more relaxed. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [28]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and will be strong in the short term. Try to go long on specific contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a small rebound. Supply pressure dominates. Recommend shorting on rallies [31]. - **LPG**: Driven by the macro - level, the price goes up. The external market provides support [33]. - **PTA - PX**: They oscillate with the cost and the macro - environment. PTA processing fees are expected to be repaired [36]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: They are oscillating strongly in the short term due to macro - warming [37]. - **Methanol**: Reduce long positions. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. - **PP**: The downside space is limited. Recommend going long on dips [42]. - **PE**: The demand recovers slowly. It will maintain an oscillating pattern [45]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see. The current fundamentals are poor, but the short - selling willingness of funds is low [46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with the cost. It is not advisable to continue shorting [46]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month contract [47]. - **Asphalt**: It is pushed up by the "anti - involution" concept. The short - term peak season is not outstanding. Consider long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a pattern of having support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [49]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. The price is restricted by high inventory [50]. - **Glass**: The price lacks a clear trend. Pay attention to supply - side ignition, cost, and demand seasonality [51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is weakening. Pay attention to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [52]. - **Pulp**: It rebounds with the commodity sentiment. Recommend buying on dips [53]. - **Propylene**: The futures and spot prices diverge. The futures are driven up by the macro - level, while the spot weakens [55]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Policy disturbances emerge again [56].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, the commodity shipment volume remained high, and the demand for mainstream vessel types increased. The demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels increased significantly, and the BPI and BSI&BHSI freight rate indices continued to strengthen significantly on a week-on-week basis, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to maintain a relatively high increase. With the high demand for both agricultural and industrial product shipments, dry bulk carriers continued to benefit, and the spot freight rate index maintained an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis**: Compared with the data on September 5th, the week-on-week increase of the mainstream vessel type freight rate indices continued to be significant. The BPI freight rate index increased by more than 10%, and the BSI&BHSI freight rate indices increased by more than 2%. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,126 points, up 7.43% week-on-week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,070 points, up 8.29% week-on-week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 2,006 points, up 11.32% week-on-week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,492 points, up 2.47% week-on-week; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 804 points, up 2.16% week-on-week [5]. - **FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index**: On September 12th, the FDI composite index, FDI rent and freight index, and FDI spot freight index all declined, with a decline of about 1%. However, the rent and freight of most Panamax vessels in the FDI rent and freight index increased on a week-on-week basis. Specifically, the FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,346.02 points, down 1.13% on a week-on-week basis; the FDI rent index closed at 1,654.83 points, down 1.37% on a week-on-week basis; among them, the Capesize vessel rent index closed at 1,742.12 points, down 3.19% on a week-on-week basis; the Panamax vessel rent index closed at 1,547.57 points, down 0.11% on a week-on-week basis; the Handymax vessel rent index closed at 1,645.72 points, up 0.09% on a week-on-week basis; the FDI freight rate index closed at 1,140.14 points, down 0.89% on a week-on-week basis [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking - **Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day**: On September 15th, among the major agricultural product sending countries, Brazil used 50 vessels for shipment, Russia used 11 vessels, Argentina used 25 vessels, Ukraine used 1 vessel, Uruguay used 0 vessels, and Australia used 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product sending countries, Australia used 52 vessels, Guinea used 33 vessels, Indonesia used 41 vessels, Russia used 17 vessels, South Africa used 17 vessels, Brazil used 15 vessels, and the United States used 11 vessels [19]. - **Analysis of Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day**: In terms of agricultural product shipments, 23 vessels were used for corn shipment, 17 vessels for wheat shipment, 19 vessels for soybean shipment, 15 vessels for soybean meal shipment, and 13 vessels for sugar shipment. In terms of industrial product shipments, 100 vessels were used for coal shipment, 66 vessels for iron ore shipment, and 17 vessels for other dry cargo shipments. By vessel type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post-Panamax vessels, reaching 39; followed by 17 Handymax vessels; and finally 21 Handysize vessels. The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize vessels, reaching 92; followed by 67 Post-Panamax vessels; and finally 45 Handymax vessels [20]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports In mid-to-late September, the number of vessels docked at major global ports increased significantly. Except for the number of vessels at Australian ports remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis, the number of vessels at other ports increased on a week-on-week basis, especially at major Chinese ports. Specifically, the number of dry bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 13 on a week-on-week basis, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports increased by 12 on a week-on-week basis, the number of vessels docked at South African ports increased by 1 on a week-on-week basis, and the number of vessels docked at Brazilian ports increased by 3 on a week-on-week basis [20][21]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - **Brazilian Soybeans**: On September 12th, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39 per ton. On September 15th, the near-term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 4,080.61 yuan per ton. - **Iron Ore**: On September 11th, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,620 per day. On September 12th, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $123.1 per thousand tons. - **Steam Coal**: On September 11th, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,456 per day. On September 12th, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan per ton. - **Logs**: On September 12th, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 796.8 points. On September 12th, the CFR price of 4-meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [25].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Ying (Investment Consultation Certificate No.: Z0016367) [2] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock index showed a volatile trend, pressured by weak August social financing and economic operation data. On the industry level, measures related to integrated circuits between China and the US led to an increase in the power equipment sector, and the solid-state battery concept represented by CATL strengthened. The electricity and new energy, as well as the automotive sectors, led the A-share market today. With fundamental data suppressing short - term market risk appetite, and the results of the China - US talks and the Fed's September FOMC adjustment pending, the stock market is expected to continue its trend of low - volume oscillation until the uncertainties within the week are resolved [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index contracted in volume with an overall volatile trend, and the large - cap index was relatively strong. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.24%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2435.41 billion yuan. Among index futures, IF rose with reduced volume, while the rest declined with reduced volume [3] Important Information - China's industrial added value above designated size in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 3.4%, and the retail growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment slowed to 14.3%. In August, the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities remained at 1% compared with the previous month, and the year - on - year decline of new housing prices in all tiers narrowed [4] Strategy Recommendation - A long straddle option strategy is recommended [6] Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.04 | - 0.25 | - 0.53 | - 0.44 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.7764 | 5.5348 | 13.7356 | 19.4389 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 1.0859 | - 0.9934 | - 3.8503 | - 4.6447 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.7459 | 9.8524 | 24.9632 | 35.6703 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 1.103 | - 0.1517 | - 1.8126 | - 1.5462 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.26 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.63 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.55 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 22773.85 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 2435.41 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Considering the limited potential for a weak rebound, some long positions can be taken profit [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures continued to rebound, with all contracts closing higher and long - term varieties seeing larger gains. There were 28 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 56.85 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, and the DR001 rate rose to 1.41% [1] 2. Intraday News - Trump expects the Fed to "significantly cut interest rates" this week [2] - In August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year cumulatively, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year cumulatively, industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Although some A - share indices reached new highs today, the bond market basically shook off the influence of the stock market. The economic data announced in the morning showed that investment and consumption continued to slow down, and the boosting effect of the "two new" policies weakened. The real estate market is still bottom - seeking, and the decline in sales and new construction has not converged. The fundamentals determine that there is a ceiling for interest rates, but the current market trading sentiment is still weak, and long - term interest rates rose again after the futures market closed. In addition, the funding situation has tightened again due to the tax period, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection intensity in the next few days [2] 4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Changes**: The prices of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512 on September 15, 2025, were 102.368, 105.66, 107.84, and 115.48 respectively, with daily increases of 0.004, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Position Changes**: The positions of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were 72,691, 135,920, 236,190, and 162,580 hands respectively, with changes of + 1,775, - 843, + 4,644, and + 1,932 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Basis Changes**: The bases (CTD) of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were - 0.0291, 0.0708, 0.4266, and 0.554 respectively, with changes of 0.0239, 0.0307, 0.0473, and 0.2482 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Trading Volume Changes**: The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts on September 15, 2025, were 24,122, 54,025, 94,600, and 111,024 hands respectively, with decreases of 10,117, 17,431, 9,200, and 39,156 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] 5. Graphical Data - The report also includes graphical data on the basis and IRR of T, TL, TF, and TS main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing interest rates and policy interest rates, exchange financing interest rates, fund stratification, US Treasury bond yield trends, and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest contradiction in the methanol market lies in the ports. Although the reverse flow window from ports to the inland is open due to the strong olefin procurement sentiment in the inland, port pressure remains high. The high shipment volume from Iran and non - Iranian regions makes it difficult to resolve the contradiction for the 01 contract. Methanol may face a short - term oscillating pattern. Considering downstream inventory and port pressure, it is recommended to reduce long positions and continue to hold short put options [4]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. 3. Specific Summaries Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a methanol price decline, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a put - option hedging ratio of 50% and a call - option entry interval of 45 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent an increase in procurement costs due to a methanol price rise, they can buy methanol futures (MA2601) at present to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 2450 - 2550. They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry interval of 20 - 25 [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Bo (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021070) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [3] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950; buy 50% UR2601P1850 put options; sell 50% UR2601C1950 call options [3] - For low - level purchase inventory and hope to purchase based on orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750; sell 75% UR2601P1650 put options [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Domestic urea prices continue to fall, with sufficient market supply, rising social inventory, and persistent domestic supply - demand pressure [4] - After the parade, industrial and compound fertilizer demand has a slight regional increase, but overall impact is limited, and downstream acceptance of current prices is low [4] - Upstream order - taking pressure is emerging, and urea factories are reducing prices to take orders. Continuously monitor 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [4] - In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports supports demand, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term [4] - Agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [4] Group 5:利多解读 - Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to have a wide - range fluctuation pattern with enhanced downward support [5] Group 6:利空解读 - Domestic policies suppress the market, and the association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment dominates the short - term trend of rubber prices, while supply - demand fundamentals provide support and resistance. The cost support remains strong due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas. The rubber sentiment has subsided, and the decline in crude oil prices has dragged down the rubber sector. Long - term demand requires continuous and effective macro - policy incentives, and export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of Indonesian standard rubber is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of the NR2510 contract is not large. In the long - term, the supply of domestic full - latex is limited, and the RU warehouse receipts are in a seasonal low. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad also affects the rubber market, and there are risks such as US tariff policies and EU anti - dumping investigations [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect rubber prices. Weather in production areas affects cost support, and long - term demand depends on macro - policies. Export growth has risks [1]. - Near - term trading: 1 - 7 months, Indonesian standard rubber imports increased by about 8% year - on - year, and the price difference between NR contracts and other standard products may remain in the short term [3]. - Long - term trading: Domestic production area weather disturbances lead to slow growth of full - latex raw materials. RU warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the focus is on the remaining tapping window this year. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad has both positive and negative impacts, and there are risks [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price range: The reference oscillation range of RU2601 in the next week is 15700 - 16100; that of NR2511 is 12500 - 13000. The trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation [11]. - Strategy suggestions: In the wide - range oscillation, it is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis. For basis, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies, specific operations and entry points are provided [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The monthly price range of rubber RU is 15800 - 16300, and that of 20 - number rubber NR is 12700 - 13200 [13]. - Risk management strategies: Different strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding trading directions, hedging ratios, and entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerned Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive information: Heavy - truck sales continued to grow. In 2025, from January to August, China's heavy - truck cumulative sales increased by about 13% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12.6% respectively, and automobile exports increased by 13.7%. There is a high probability of La Nina phenomenon in the fourth quarter, which may affect Southeast Asian production areas [14]. - Negative information: Indonesian standard rubber exports increased. Malaysia's rubber subsidies stabilized supply. Global natural rubber production and consumption had different trends in July. In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased [15]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Tropical disturbances are generated in the South China Sea, and Typhoon "Mina" may affect China's Taiwan to Guangdong area. Pay attention to the rainfall in Thailand in September. This week is a key period for central banks around the world to announce policy interest rates, especially the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18 [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The rubber price fluctuated last week, and the price center of the RU01 contract remained around 15900, and that of the NR11 contract was around 12700. Spot prices fell, and the basis of Thai standard, Indonesian standard, and NR was at a seasonal high. The RU month - spread changed little, and the NR term structure changed significantly [18][22][26]. - Foreign market: The foreign market trend was similar to the domestic one, and the exchange rate affected the pricing of foreign rubber. The term structure of Japanese RSS3 changed, and Singapore TRES20 maintained a contango structure [29][31]. - Virtual - to - physical ratio and sentiment indicators: The bullish sentiment of rubber fluctuated. The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was moderate, and the NR ratio was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [33]. - Internal - external price difference tracking: The internal - external price differences of RU and NR were differentiated. The price difference between RU and Japanese RSS3 was high but narrowed. The supply of NR and Singapore 20 - number rubber was expected to be loose, and the exchange rate affected the price difference [36]. - Variety price difference analysis: The deep - shallow price difference of dry rubber continued to expand. The price difference between natural and synthetic rubber increased [40][47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw material cost: Domestic raw material prices rose and fell. In Hainan, glue prices decreased slightly, and cup - glue prices increased slightly. In Yunnan, glue prices remained high. In Thailand, the water - cup price difference decreased [50]. - Processing profit: The delivery profit of domestic full - latex in Yunnan was low, and the profit of TSR9710 was good. The processing profit of imported smoked sheets increased slightly, while the profits of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber were negative [56][58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main - producing country output: Thailand's output decreased in July. Indonesia's output may decrease slightly in August. Malaysia's output decreased year - on - year, and Vietnam's output is expected to increase. India's output was at a low level [60]. - Import situation: In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased. From Thailand, the import of Thai standard increased, and Thai mixed decreased. Indonesian imports increased in July, and exports may remain growing in August [62]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Main - producing country total demand: In July, China's natural rubber consumption was stable year - on - year. The demand in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased, while that in Vietnam and India increased. China's rubber demand and exports are expected to remain strong, but international trade situations need attention [70]. - Tire production and sales: The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased, and the inventory decreased slowly. Tire exports increased, but the average export price decreased. The downstream inventory is high, and short - term production and sales are stable, but long - term risks exist [73]. - Replacement demand: China's logistics industry is stable, and the replacement demand is expected to be stable. However, long - term fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [78]. - Supporting demand: Last week, domestic passenger car wholesale sales decreased. China's heavy - truck sales were strong in the first half of the year, and the supporting demand is expected to be resilient. Automobile exports increased significantly in August [80]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures inventory: RU warehouse receipts decreased rapidly, and NR warehouse receipts increased steadily [84]. - Social inventory: The domestic dry - rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The light - colored rubber inventory continued to decrease, and the dark - colored rubber inventory also decreased slightly. The inventory in Yunnan's non - standard rubber increased [87].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the performance of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in different economic cycles and their historical trends from 2005 to 2024. It also explores the relationship between the ratio of upstream and downstream indices and the A - share market, finding that the correlation reversed around 2015 due to economic structure transformation, policy regulation, and changes in the industry competition pattern. The current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead, which helps in stock index style selection and may create medium - to - long - term arbitrage opportunities [1][18][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Different Economic States and Industry Performance - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry includes raw materials, energy, and mining. It performs best in the economic recovery stage, with the order of performance being economic recovery > economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the recovery stage, it rebounds first due to increased demand for raw materials and energy, rising commodity prices, and positive market expectations. In the expansion stage, demand grows, but high raw material prices may lead to policy regulation. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and profits fluctuate. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [3]. - **Midstream Industry**: Comprising manufacturing and related sectors, it performs strongest in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic recovery > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the expansion stage, it benefits from increased manufacturing orders and high capacity utilization. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and costs rise. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline significantly [5]. - **Downstream Industry**: Including consumer goods and services, it performs best in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession > economic recovery. In the expansion stage, consumer demand is strong, and optional consumer goods perform better. In the stagflation stage, inflation affects consumption, but essential consumer goods are relatively stable. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [6]. 3.2 Historical Review of Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream Trends - **2005 - 2007 (Upstream Explosion)**: The stock market rose overall, with the style being upstream > midstream > downstream. The economic fundamentals first expanded and then contracted. Upstream industries, represented by coal and non - ferrous metals, rose more than five times due to factors such as global commodity bull markets and China's industrialization. Midstream industries, like machinery, benefited from the real - estate market. Downstream industries were relatively weak due to lagging resident income growth [10]. - **2008 - 2009 (Full - Industry Chain Collapse and Policy Rescue)**: The stock market was weak, with the style being downstream (defensive) > midstream > upstream. Affected by the financial crisis, the upstream industry declined sharply, the midstream was supported by falling raw material prices and government investment, and the downstream rebounded first due to policy support [14]. - **2010 - 2015 (Midstream Upgrade and Downstream Consumption Rise)**: The stock market had a "V" - shaped trend, with the style being downstream > midstream > upstream. The economy was in a transformation stage. The upstream was affected by over - capacity, the midstream benefited from falling raw material prices and the development of high - end manufacturing, and the downstream reached its peak due to industry upgrades, policy support, and a loose financial environment [15]. - **2016 - 2020 (Supply - Side Reform and Consumption Differentiation)**: The stock market fluctuated and generally rose, with the style being upstream (2016 - 2017) > downstream > midstream. Supply - side reform led to a significant increase in upstream profits from 2016 - 2017. The midstream was affected by trade frictions and supply - side reform, and the downstream benefited from global liquidity and the "drinking and medicine - taking" market during the epidemic [15][16]. - **2021 - 2024 (Carbon Neutrality and Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration)**: The stock market declined, with the style being upstream (2021) > midstream (2022 - 2023) > downstream. The upstream was boosted by new energy demand in 2021. The midstream was affected by geopolitical conflicts and the epidemic but was supported by the development of photovoltaic and energy - storage industries. The downstream was affected by the epidemic and the real - estate downturn [17]. - **Summary**: Midstream performance is usually in the middle, and the upstream and downstream show obvious differentiation. Upstream indices rise first in the economic recovery, followed by the midstream, and finally the downstream. In the economic decline, the downstream has some defensive properties. Upstream is sensitive to supply - side policies, downstream to demand - side policies, and midstream is passively affected by events and policies [17]. 3.3 Industry Comparison and A - Share Market Review - The ratio of the upstream index to the downstream index is expected to be positively correlated with the A - share market. However, the correlation reversed around 2015. Before 2015, the upstream was more elastic, and the ratio was positively correlated with the A - share market. After 2015, the downstream became more elastic due to economic transformation, policy regulation, and other factors. Despite the change, the upward trend of the ratio still has indicative significance, and the current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead [18][20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. As time progresses, it is approaching the end of the adjustment wave, and the overall view is bullish. In specific sectors, the outlook for oilseeds and fats is bullish, while that for chemicals is bearish [2][3][5] - In addition to industrial products, agricultural products have also stabilized recently. The downward driving force of agricultural products has further weakened, but attention should be paid to the risk of soybean meal prices caused by uncertain tariffs [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - From August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. During this period, varieties with weak fundamentals and low basis, such as glass, soda ash, PVC, urea, and crude oil, have adjusted and led the decline, while polysilicon and coking coal have maintained horizontal consolidation. As the adjustment wave nears its end, these varieties will choose a direction [4] - Agricultural products have stabilized. The USDA supply - demand report on September 12th showed a slight increase in the US soybean ending inventory, but it could not drive the market lower. The path of least resistance for US soybeans is no longer downward, and there is little point in short - selling domestic soybean meal and oil varieties. The risk lies in tariffs [4] 3.2 Capital Flow - The total capital flow is 10.312 billion. Among different sectors, precious metals have a capital flow of 2.421 billion, non - ferrous metals have - 0.143 billion, black metals have 0.447 billion, energy has 0.83 billion, chemicals have 0.265 billion, feed and breeding have 0.479 billion, oilseeds and fats have 0.06 billion, and soft commodities have 0.065 billion [8] 3.3 Weekly Data of Different Sectors - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, basis difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [8] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data are provided for energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [10] - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, including price percentile, inventory percentile, etc. [11]