Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The USDA report this month is bullish, boosting the soybean complex. The extension of the US 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy benefits the US soybean oil, driving up the prices of the whole oil sector. However, the MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April exceeded expectations, with the production increasing by 21.52% month - on - month, exports increasing by 9.62% month - on - month, and inventory increasing by 19.37% month - on - month. The palm oil market is under pressure due to the entry into the production - increasing season [2]. - For protein meals, the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA report shows that US soybean production and ending stocks are lower than expected, and the improvement in Sino - US relations may increase US soybean exports. In China, the resumption of oil - mill operations has alleviated the supply shortage, and the sufficient supply of raw soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7914, 8184, and 9438 respectively, with daily increases of 122, 230, and 64, and daily increase rates of 1.57%, 2.89%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the previous day's closing price of soybean meal was 2914, up 28 (0.97%), and that of rapeseed meal was 2416, up 6 (0.25%). The previous day's closing price of peanuts was 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 54, 26, and 149 respectively, showing certain changes compared with the previous values. The current ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 49, 217, and 367 respectively, also different from the previous values [1]. b. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3827 (Ringgit/ton), 1076 (cents/bushel), 52 (cents/pound), and 292 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their daily increases were 37, 1, 1, and - 2 respectively, with daily increase rates of 0.98%, 0.09%, 1.06%, and - 0.54% respectively [1]. c. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8290 and 8260 respectively, with increase rates of 1.59% and 1.60%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8750 and 8800 respectively, with increase rates of 1.51% and 1.50%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9460 and 9450 respectively, with an increase rate of 0.64%. For protein meals and peanuts, the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3020 and 3090 respectively, with increase rates of 1.00% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2430 and 2390 respectively, with increase rates of 0.41% and - 0.42%. The spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7600, with an increase rate of 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for various products shows different values. For example, the spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 376. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 480, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. d. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil are - 451, - 203, 11, - 112, and 401 respectively, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. e. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 10,870, 330, 1,727, 31,786, 31,278, and 1,500 respectively. The warehouse receipts for soybean oil have increased compared with the previous values, while others remain unchanged [1]. f. Industry Information - Indian vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, down from 1 million tons in March. Palm oil imports were 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March; sunflower oil imports were 180,128 tons, down from 190,645 tons in March; and soybean oil imports were 360,984 tons, up from 355,358 tons in March [2]. - HLIB maintains its average price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 and 2026 at 4000 Ringgit/ton and 3800 Ringgit/ton respectively, expecting the supply recovery led by Indonesia to limit the further rise of palm oil prices. The average price of crude palm oil so far this year is 4579 Ringgit/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that for stock index futures, the overall attitude is to be mainly bullish. For stock index options, the wide - straddle buying option strategy can be used to capture the trend - following market after the direction is chosen. The short - term situation is favorable for the stock market due to the release of favorable policies at the May 7th press conference and the May 12th phased results of China - US tariff negotiations. Currently, the valuation levels of China's major indices are still relatively low, and it is still cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market for allocation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - In the IF series, the previous day's closing prices of IF for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 3943.00, 3907.40, 3841.40, and 3803.40 respectively, with increases of 50.80, 56.00, 58.80, and 58.80. The trading volumes were 33690.00, 81957.00, 18781.00, and 4996.00, and the changes in open interest were - 2859.00, 20634.00, 5162.00, and 2132.00 [1]. - In the IH series, the previous day's closing prices of IH for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2756.00, 2737.60, 2707.00, and 2704.00 respectively, with increases of 47.40, 49.60, 53.00, and 53.40. The trading volumes were 15043.00, 48329.00, 10349.00, and 2516.00, and the changes in open interest were 1153.00, 13041.00, 3349.00, and 1237.00 [1]. - In the IC series, the previous day's closing prices of IC for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 5800.00, 5697.80, 5533.00, and 5420.40 respectively, with increases of 32.80, 43.40, 42.60, and 40.80. The trading volumes were 34192.00, 72621.00, 16925.00, and 6675.00, and the changes in open interest were - 4771.00, 14940.00, 3068.00, and 2598.00 [1]. - In the IM series, the previous day's closing prices of IM for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 6156.60, 6043.00, 5847.00, and 5702.00 respectively, with increases of 30.20, 46.00, 43.00, and 41.40. The trading volumes were 49231.00, 189515.00, 39828.00, and 12916.00, and the changes in open interest were - 7334.00, 26417.00, 6509.00, and 2476.00 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - The previous day's value of the CSI 300 index was 3943.21, with a trading volume of 172.03 billion lots and a total trading amount of 3194.65 billion yuan, and the increase was 1.21%. The previous day's value of the SSE 50 index was 2753.79, with a trading volume of 46.49 billion lots and a total trading amount of 947.24 billion yuan, and the increase was 1.69%. The previous day's value of the CSI 500 index was 5799.12, with a trading volume of 156.28 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1881.45 billion yuan, and the increase was 0.30%. The previous day's value of the CSI 1000 index was 6160.37, with a trading volume of 211.56 billion lots and a total trading amount of 2525.14 billion yuan, and the increase was 0.15% [1]. - Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities sectors had different increases and decreases, with the major consumption and real - estate finance sectors having relatively high increases of 2.12% and 2.21% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - For the CSI 300, the previous day's bases of IF for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were - 0.21, - 35.81, - 101.81, and - 139.81 respectively. For the SSE 50, the previous day's bases of IH for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2.22, - 16.19, - 46.79, and - 49.79 respectively. For the CSI 500, the previous day's bases of IC for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 0.88, - 101.32, - 266.12, and - 378.72 respectively. For the CSI 1000, the previous day's bases of IM for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were - 3.77, - 117.37, - 313.37, and - 458.37 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic Main Indices and Overseas Indices - Among domestic main indices, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous day values of 3403.95, 10354.22, 6407.77, and 2083.14 respectively, with increases of 0.86%, 0.64%, 0.58%, and 1.01% respectively. Among overseas indices, the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had previous day values of 23640.65, 38128.13, 5892.58, and 23527.01 respectively, with increases of 2.30%, - 0.14%, 0.10%, and - 0.47% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and adjusted to implement a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. The US also lowered the ad - valorem tax rate on small Chinese parcels' international mail from 120% to 54% and revoked the measure to increase the specific tax from $100 per piece to $200 [2]. - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. From January to April, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month, remaining at a historically low level [2]. - On May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% deposit reserve ratio) and lowered the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - More than 20 institutions are ready to apply for the issuance of floating - rate new products, and products with "low fees + absolute returns + performance rewards" and "long - term stock investment + regular dividends" are the most concerned [2]. - As of the end of April, the total scale of 14 bank wealth - management companies reached 23.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from the end of March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [2]. - The construction of the railway from Ganqimaodu in China to Gashuun Sukhait in Mongolia officially started. China Telecom Quantum Group launched the world's first distributed cryptographic system integrating QKD and PQC, indicating a systematic technological breakthrough in China's new - generation quantum - secure infrastructure [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indices showed mixed trends. The previous trading day, the stock index rose, with the non - banking financial sector rising significantly and the national defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The whole - market trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. Among them, IH2505 rose 1.75%, IF2505 rose 1.31%, IC2505 rose 0.57%, and IM2505 rose 0.49%. On May 13, the margin trading balance increased by 1.344 billion yuan to 1798.404 billion yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite has increased, leading to a decline in Treasury bond futures prices and potentially greater short - term fluctuations. The cancellation of some additional tariffs and the establishment of an economic and trade consultation mechanism have eased market避险 sentiment. Meanwhile, the market capital situation continues to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors show certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract dropped by 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts changed, with some contracts seeing a decrease in open interest, such as the T2506 contract [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.92bp to 1.68%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.96bp [2]. - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates increased by 1.1bp, 1.03bp, and 1.2bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose by 4bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose by 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose by 5.5bp [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 14, the central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. Starting from May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [3]. - **Economic Data**: At the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, 4bp lower than the previous month [3]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: China adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US, and the US adjusted the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [3]. 3.5 Industry Information - **Interest Rate Trends**: Most money market interest rates rose, and US Treasury bond yields increased across the board. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.672%. The market capital situation continued to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors showed certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3].

| | 20250514申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The night - session prices of both crude oil and methanol rose. Crude oil prices were affected by US CPI data, inventory changes, and strategic reserve adjustments. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish, with开工 load and inventory conditions influencing its price [3] Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 479.5, 470.5, 61.96, 61.53, 66.60, and 66.10 respectively. The price changes were - 2.8, - 2.1, 0.90, 0.95, 1.61, and 1.55, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.58%, - 0.44%, 1.47%, 1.57%, 2.48%, and 2.40% [2] - The trading volumes were 77,046, 52,260, 290,296, 223,289, 417,955, and 270,581 respectively, and the open interests were 15,073, 24,340, 200,444, 280,659, 494,806, and 422,865 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 2650, 863, - 18975, 9999, - 32629, and - 513 respectively [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 9.0, 470.5, 33.7, 0.3, 3.10, and 0.50 respectively, with previous values of 9.7, 182.6, 43.0, 14.7, 3.46, and 0.44 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2354, 2380, and 2291 respectively. The price changes were 20.0, 42.0, and 21.0, with percentage changes of 0.86%, 1.80%, and 0.93% respectively [2] - The trading volumes were 52,758, 990, and 766,446 respectively, and the open interests were 163,172, 3,319, and 764,051 respectively. The changes in open interests were 6087, - 542, and 6569 respectively [2] - The spot prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 260, 2465, 2230, and 2395 respectively, with price changes of 3, 10, 5, and 13 respectively [2] Market Commentary and Strategy Crude Oil - The night - session oil prices continued to rise. The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the month - on - month data turned from - 0.1% to 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 2.4% [3] - The API data showed that last week, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.287 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.374 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.675 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 850,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 500,000 barrels to 39.96 million barrels [3] Methanol - The night - session price of methanol rose by 2.1%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.99%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - As of May 8, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 75.65%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points compared to the previous period and 5.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - As of May 8, the coastal methanol inventory was 619,000 tons (at a historical low), an increase of 1,000 tons or 0.16% compared to April 30, and a decrease of 0.75% year - on - year. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 212,000 tons [3] - According to incomplete statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the expected arrival volume of imported methanol ships from May 9 to May 25 is between 700,000 and 710,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish [3]

美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这 阻碍了谈判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与日本进行了"非常富有 成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积极"的沟通。 消 息 印度向世贸组织（WTO）发送通知文件表示，拟对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国推出的钢铝 关税。这标志着印度首次回击特朗普的关税行动。另据知情人士透露，印度商务部长预计将于 本周访问美国讨论关税问题。 20250514申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 763.08 | 769.38 | 8192.00 | 8260.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 765.40 | 771.64 | 8219.00 | 8284.0 ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。 如因投资者将本报 ...

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-10日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加 | | --- | --- | | | 20.2%，出油率增加0.4%，产量增加22.31%。2、据马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB，马来西亚4月棕榈油 | | | 出口为1102266吨，环比增长9.62%。马来西亚4月棕榈油产量为1685962吨，环比增长21.52%。马 | | 行业 | 来西亚4月棕榈油库存量为1865537吨，环比增长19.37%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱运行，近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种工作的推进。 | | | USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中美双方在瑞士 | | | 进行会谈并取得实质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善，美豆期价回升至贸易关税之前水平。 | | | 国内方面，中美关税取得进展国内进口美国大豆有望增加，对国内豆粕行情形成阶段性利空。近 | | | 期国内油厂开机大幅回升，供应偏紧情况得到明显缓解，豆粕供应快速增加预期较强。二季度国 | | | 内原料大豆、豆粕供应料充足，将继续施 ...

2025 年 5 月 13 日 宏观利好后逐步回归基本面 申银万国期货有限公司 研究所 联系人：马思远 从业资格号：F03141554 5 降低 地址：上海东方路 800 号 宝安大厦 7、8、10 楼 邮编：200122 传真：021 5058 8822 网址：www.sywgqh.com.cn 主要观点 原油：SC 上涨 1.08%。中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低 双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91% 的反制关税；美方暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税。国际油价盘中一度上涨 4%左右，但是有关伊朗核计 划以及俄乌冲突的谈判使得制裁最终被取消的可能性依然存在，随后 油价脱离当日高点，收盘时涨幅急剧缩窄。关注低油价给与美国制裁 委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 股指：股指高开低走，银行板块领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市成交 额 1.33 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.24%，IF2505 上涨 0.24%，IC2505 下跌 0.11%，IM2505 下跌 0.17%。资金方面，5 月 12 日融资余额增加 46.14 亿元至 1797 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The joint statement of the China-US high-level economic and trade talks was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. This eases global trade tensions and boosts market confidence [1][2][6]. - Domestically, the economy maintains steady growth and flexible policy adjustments. Overseas, major economies have differentiated monetary policies but generally focus on inflation risks. The easing of China - US economic and trade relations helps stabilize global market expectations and promotes international trade and investment [1]. - For different varieties: - **Crude oil**: Prices rose due to the progress of China - US talks but the涨幅 was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - **Gold**: With the positive news of tariff easing, gold and silver prices declined. However, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand still provide support [3][20]. - **Stock index**: Stimulated by positive factors, the stock index is likely to break upward. For stock index futures, a bullish attitude is recommended, and for stock index options, a long - straddle strategy can be used [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released, with significant tariff reductions and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Minister of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will help enterprises overcome difficulties and promote foreign - trade development [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new - energy vehicle production and sales growing by 43.8% and 44.2% respectively [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 3.26%, and London gold fell 2.73% [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Finance** - **Stock Index**: Affected by the positive news of China - US tariff negotiations, the stock index rebounded. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and use a long - straddle strategy for stock index options [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices generally fell. With the progress of China - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined with increased short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose due to China - US talks but the increase was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded. The short - term trend is expected to continue to rise [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market may rebound in the short term [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed up. The market is affected by inventory and supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term trend needs to be observed [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined due to tariff easing but still have some support [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and other factors [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also fluctuate widely. Market expectations for supply improvement have been partially digested [22]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum contract may be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and a price cut is expected [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand has support in the short term but may be weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: The steel market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports remaining stable [29]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend of oils and fats is strong. The supply of soybeans is expected to increase, and the palm oil inventory may rise [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term trend of soybean meal is strong, and the increase in US soybean imports may have a negative impact on the domestic market [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week but may enter an oscillating phase [33]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose due to macro - level positives. The short - term trend is strong [34]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment improved due to tariff easing. The short - term outlook is positive, but the main obstacle is the excess of shipping capacity [35].