申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 免责声明 免 责 声 明 本报告的信息均资料来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、 结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任 何投资决策与本公司无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不得用 于未经允许的其他任何用途。如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、建议用于非法目的，所产生的 一切经济、法律责任均与本公司无关。 本报告的版权归本公司所有。本公司对本报告保留一切权利，未经本公司书面许可，任何机构和 个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为申银万国期货，且不得对 本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 期货 | | | 价差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | shenyb@sywggh. com. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | 11 | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1373.0 | 1116.5 | 1195.0 | 1842. 0 | 1668.0 | 1736.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1403.0 | 1159. 5 | 1237.5 | 1887. 0 | 1719.0 | 1788. 5 | | EH | 煮跌 | -30. 0 | -43.0 | -42.5 | -45.0 | -51. 0 | -52.0 | | स्त | 廉政幅 | -2.14% | -3. 71% | -3. 43% | -2. 38% | -2. 97% | -2. 91% | | 10 | 成交重 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of container shipping to Europe has dropped by 0.11%. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, shipping companies face increasing pressure to secure cargo and need to build rolling spaces for the holiday. Led by Maersk's price cut, pre - holiday freight rates have entered the traditional off - season decline channel. However, the market's focus is on the potential price increase after the Spring Festival due to the rush to transport photovoltaic products. The 04 contract is about 300 points lower than the spot price, and the low valuation supports the market. In 2025, shipping companies announced price increases in March and April, and this year there is an additional rush of exports of photovoltaic products. Before seeing the shipping companies' price - increase plans or a substantial increase in cargo volume from the export rush, the 04 contract is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Contract Volume and Price - **EC2602**: The latest trading price is 1717.5 points, with a decline of 0.47%. The trading volume is 984 (a decrease of 419 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 3495 (a decrease of 730 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 85 [3]. - **EC2604**: The latest trading price is 1193.9 points, with a decline of 0.11%. The trading volume is 25043 (a decrease of 18129 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 38647 (a decrease of 3043 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2611 [3]. - **EC2606**: The latest trading price is 1442.2 points, with a decline of 0.24%. The trading volume is 2566 (a decrease of 1917 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 7912 (an increase of 588 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [3]. - **EC2608**: The latest trading price is 1528.4 points, with an increase of 0.82%. The trading volume is 248 (a decrease of 366 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 1482 (a decrease of 33 compared to the previous period) [3]. - **EC2610**: The latest trading price is 1112 points, with an increase of 0.29%. The trading volume is 1010 (a decrease of 1138 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 8511 (a decrease of 54 compared to the previous period) [3]. - **EC2612**: The latest trading price is 1374.7 points, with an increase of 0.50%. The trading volume is 23 (a decrease of 15 compared to the previous period), and the single - sided open interest is 123 (a decrease of 1 compared to the previous period) [3]. - **Total**: The total trading volume is 29874, and the total single - sided open interest is 60170. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2696 [3]. Spot Freight Rates - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1859.31 points, with a decline of 4.9% compared to the previous period; the SCFI is $1595/TEU, with a decline of 2.5% compared to the previous period [3]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: The TCI(20GP) is $1688/TEU, with an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous period; the TCI(40GP) is $2837/FEU, with an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous period [3]. Basis and Spread - The basis of the previous trading day is 665.41, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day is 659.11, with a change of 6.3 [4]. - Information on the spreads between different contracts such as EC2604 - EC2602, EC2606 - EC2604, etc. is presented in the form of a chart [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The copper price closed lower overnight The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss Although the smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow strongly The power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak The supply disruption in the copper mine has led to an expected supply - demand deficit globally After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased adjustment [2] - The zinc price closed higher overnight The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to grow The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in non - ferrous metals, the zinc price may experience a phased adjustment [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog (Market Data) - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 102,280 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 13,024 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 93.80 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 170,525 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 1,175 tons [2] - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,230 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,213 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 5.71 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 505,275 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 2,000 tons [2] - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,895 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,359 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 111,325 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 175 tons [2] - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 146,110 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,370 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 18,235 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 214.32 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 285,552 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was 1,824 tons [2] - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,935 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 140 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,028 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 47.43 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 213,600 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 1,575 tons [2] - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 450,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 12,000 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 54,865 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 244.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 7,065 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 130 tons [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 455.0 | 446.7 | 62.57 | 62.23 | 65.69 | 64.90 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 453.0 | 457.3 | 60.83 | 60.59 | 66.29 | 65.44 | | | 涨跌 | 2.0 | -10.6 | 1.74 | 1.64 | -0.60 | -0.54 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.44% | -2.32% | 2.86% | 2.71% | -0.91% | -0.83% | | | 成交量 | 456 | 121,039 | 260,208 | 107,105 | 254,102 | 387,632 | | 期 | 持仓量 ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨 投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息 不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途 如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6947 | 6899 | 6930 | 6676 | 6709 | 6745 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6974 | 6935 | 6962 | 6716 | 6737 | 6778 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -27 | -36 | -32 | -40 | -28 | -33 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.39% | -0.52% | -0.46% | -0.60% | -0.42% | -0.49% | | 场 | 成交量 | 76 | 496965 | 37005 | 194 | 408475 | 29237 | | | 持仓量 | 228 | 520760 | 709 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/1/28 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4713.80 | 4719.40 | 4701.60 | 4653.40 | 前日收盘价 | 4714.80 | 4718.20 | 4703.00 | 4653.40 | | | 涨跌 | -7.60 | -9.60 | -6.00 | -9.80 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean harvesting rate reached 2.3% as of January 17th. Positive Sino - US talks boosted expectations for US soybean exports. The upcoming biofuel policy from the US EPA also lifted demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and expected high - yield in South America will continue to pressure prices [3] - Oils and fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong, with palm oil leading the increase. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, and production decreased month - on - month. With the reduction of Malaysian palm oil tariffs, future export expectations improved. Malaysian palm oil entered a destocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supported palm oil prices. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are expected to support soybean oil. Tight rapeseed oil supply will continue to support prices, and short - term oils and fats are expected to remain strongly volatile [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The price changes were 32, 146, and - 19, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 1.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices were 2766 and 2410, with changes of - 3 and 10, and percentage changes of - 0.11% and 0.42% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from 16 to 22, the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil changed from 42 to 104. The M9 - 1 spread of soybean meal changed from - 47 to - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal changed from 64 to 69. The M - RM09 spread was 566, and the M/RM09 ratio was 1.25 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4172 ringgit/ton, 1068 cents/bu, 54.40 cents/lb, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 51.0, 7.5, 0.6, and - 0.2, with percentage changes of 1.24%, 0.71%, 1.10%, and - 0.07% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8700 and 8780 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% and 0.23%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9170, with a percentage change of 1.55%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10130 and 10150, with percentage changes of 1.40% and 0.89% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 442 and 522 respectively. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was - 68. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 804 and 824. The spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 280 to - 260 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - The import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 184 (previously - 121), near - month US Gulf soybeans was - 184 (previously - 205), near - month Brazilian soybeans was 51 (previously 17), near - month US West soybeans was - 150 (previously - 168), near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil was 634 (previously 655), and near - month Canadian rapeseed was 509 (previously 484) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 26,210, 948, and 625 respectively. For soybean meal, it was 32,428. For rapeseed meal and peanuts, it was 0. The previous values were 26,525, 1,148, 625, 32,428, 0, and 0 respectively [2] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026: The yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. In Argentina, the corn sowing progress was 93.1%, and the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The US Department of Agriculture predicted Argentina's corn production at 53 million tons and soybean production at 48.5 million tons [3]

2026年01月28日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 705.70 | 703.00 | 703.80 | 523.00 | 523.85 | 528.30 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 744.70 | 742.00 | 746.30 | 534.80 | 535.40 | 538.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -34.10 | -33.35 | -31.05 | -11.10 | -12.20 | -9.70 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -4.61% | -4.53% | -4.23% | -2.08% | -2.28% | -1.80% ...