从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1.数据变化分析 EIA原油超预期累库，油价再度转弱 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-13 | 变化 | 涨跌幅 | 黃勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SC | 486. 60 | 479. 50 | 7. 10 | 1. 48% | | 元/辆 | | | WII | 62. 43 | 63. 63 | -1. 20 | -1.89% | | 美元/簡 | | | Brent | 65. 85 | 66. 60 | -0. 75 | -1. 13% | | 美元/簡 | | 现货价格 | OPEC 一览子 | 65. 38 | 65. 38 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 美元/簡 | | | Brent | 66. 06 | 66. 19 | -0. 13 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the upside space for copper is limited. There is a continuous game between the shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the release of mine production capacity on the supply side, and the resumption of scrap copper trade between China and the US still takes time. On the demand side, post - delivery restocking by downstream enterprises may briefly boost the spot premium, but high copper prices still suppress purchasing willingness. At the macro level, the decline of the US April CPI to 2.3% weakens the support for the US dollar. Overall, copper needs to be wary of inventory pressure and the risk of macro - sentiment switching [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly to 78,630 yuan/ton, a 0.95% increase from the previous day, and the LME copper price also rose to $9,624.5/ton. The spot discount of domestic premium copper widened to - 15 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper deepened to - 40 yuan/ton and - 80 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped from $23.87/ton on May 8 to $19.17/ton [1]. - The SHFE copper open interest continued to shrink, with the inventory on May 14 dropping to 185,575 tons, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, while the LME copper inventory soared to 50,069 tons, a 71.72% increase from the previous period. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the BC copper main contract was 16,871 lots, and the open interest increased to 2,471 lots, indicating increased capital activity [2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese scrap - produced anode copper enterprises decreased by 5.33 percentage points to 44.32% month - on - month due to the shortage of recycled copper raw materials, while the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises increased slightly by 2.50 percentage points to 72.40%. The new project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine (with a reserve of 9 billion tons) and the progress of the Ambler Mining Area Act in Alaska, USA, indicate the potential for medium - and long - term mine production capacity release, but it is difficult to alleviate the supply gap of recycled copper in the short term. The suspension of Sino - US trade has led to a loosening of scrap copper exports, but inventory transfer still takes time [3]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is marginally weakening. Near the delivery date, the purchasing sentiment in the spot market is suppressed by the high monthly spread. In North China, the spot discount widened to 480 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises generally wait to purchase after the contract change. There is a structural adjustment in the consumer electronics field, such as Solus, a Samsung supplier, accelerating the divestiture of its OLED business to focus on copper foil production, reflecting the industry's long - term bet on copper demand for electric vehicle batteries, but there is no significant boost in short - term demand in the power and construction sectors [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global inventories are diverging. The LME copper inventory soared by 20,912 tons to 50,069 tons, reaching a phased high; the SHFE inventory continued to decline to 185,600 tons. The COMEX inventory also slightly increased to 165,100 short tons [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | May 14, 2025 | May 13, 2025 | May 8, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 79,060 | 78,270 | 78,560 | 790 | 1.01% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 15 | 5 | - 5 | - 20 | - 400.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 40 | - 25 | - 30 | - 15 | - 60.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 80 | - 70 | - 75 | - 10 | - 14.29% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - | 19 | 24 | - | - | dollars/ton | | SHFE | 78,630 | 77,890 | 78,070 | 740 | 0.95% | yuan/ton | | LME | - | 9,625 | 9,502 | - | - | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,069 | 29,157 | 20,084 | 20,912 | 71.72% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 185,575 | 189,650 | 190,750 | - 4,075 | - 2.15% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | - | 165,112 | 163,458 | - | - | short tons | [8] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - In May 2025, the expected operating rate of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises is 43.62%, a 0.70 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, mainly affected by the shortage of recycled copper raw materials [9]. - In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises was 53.37%, a 2.80 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The operating rate of scrap - produced enterprises was 44.32%, a 5.33 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month [9]. - The 19.8 - million - ton/year engineering design project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine was signed, with an estimated reserve of about 9 billion tons and a total investment of about 5 billion yuan, involving the mining and beneficiation of non - ferrous metals such as copper and molybdenum [9]. - Dianzhong Non - ferrous and Chinalco Environmental Protection signed a recycled copper resource supply contract, achieving cross - regional circulation and the establishment of a recycling system, and enhancing resource security capabilities [9]. - In March 2023, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons; the production of Escondida Copper Mine increased by 18.9% to 120,600 tons, and the production of Collahuasi Copper Mine decreased by 29.3% to 35,200 tons [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The policy - driven demand expectations for lithium carbonate are in a multi - empty game with high inventory levels and cost collapses. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the futures price of lithium carbonate will be constrained by the oversupply situation and the decline in Australian ore costs on the upside, while being supported by short - term export rush expectations and market sentiment on the downside. If the demand boost fails to meet expectations, the price may face downward pressure again, and overall, it will continue the low - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On May 14, the main futures contract of lithium carbonate closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 63,020 - 65,200 yuan/ton, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 2,980 yuan/ton to 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.44%. The futures price increase was significantly higher than that of the spot price [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.87% to 277,000 lots, indicating some funds left the market, while the trading volume expanded by 73.95% to 378,000 lots, suggesting intensified market competition [2]. - In the spot market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 66,200 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates also remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 61% month - on - month, as upstream production was still constrained by profit margins [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Analysis and Future Trend Judgment - **Supply Side**: The prices of spodumene (740 yuan/ton) and lepidolite (800 yuan/ton) have remained stable for many days, but the CIF price of Australian ore has dropped to $700/ton, weakening cost support. Upstream lithium salt plants are maintaining high prices due to losses, and the weekly output has increased by 28% month - on - month, so the supply pressure persists [3]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of power ternary materials (116,375 yuan/ton) and lithium iron phosphate (31,445 yuan/ton) increased slightly. The purchasing willingness of downstream cathode material enterprises is low, and demand relies on long - term contracts. The exemption of tariffs on Chinese energy - storage cells in the US may stimulate the expectation of a rush to export, potentially driving up the production of energy - storage cells in May - June and improving short - term marginal demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 464 tons, but the inventory of smelters increased to 55,000 tons. Downstream replenishment remains cautious, and the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 3.13% from May 13 to May 14, while the basis decreased by 66.44%. The open interest decreased by 5.87%, and the trading volume increased by 73.95% [5]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates were stable. The prices of power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, by 0.02% and 0.16% respectively [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points from May 9 to May 2, a decrease of 2.09% [5]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On May 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,959 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants have a strong willingness to maintain high prices due to cost losses. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. Considering the high inventory and weakening cost support, the price of lithium carbonate will continue the low - level oscillatory pattern [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 53.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.99 million units, a year - on - year increase of 42% [7].

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 星期四 苯乙烯日报：原油价格下跌，关注成本端压力 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 成本：5 月 14 日布油主力合约收盘 63.7 美元/桶（+1.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 66.6 美元/桶（+1.6 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6205 元/吨（+100 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 23.2 万吨（+2.2 万吨），环比提升 10.3%， 江苏港口库存 6.85 万吨（-1.67 万吨），环比下降 19.6%，苯乙烯港口库存持 续去化，现货流动性收紧。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应有增量预期。受部分装置重启影 响，苯乙烯周产量环比提升 2.43%至 33.07 万吨（+0.78 万吨），工厂产能利 用率 72.2%（+1.7%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 47.4%（- 1.35%），ABS 产能利用率 69.0%（+1.9%），PS 产能利用率 57.4%（-1.3%）。整 体而言下游需求走弱。 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019 ...

需求逻辑扭转弱预期，乙二醇盘面谨慎偏强运行 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇主力期货价格连续两日上涨，5月13日收于4309元/吨，较前日上涨30 元/0.7%，华东现货价格同步走强至4470元/吨，日涨65元/1.48%。 供应方面，黔希煤化30万吨产能装置4月30日停车检修一个月左右，新疆天业95 万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修，哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管道问题停 车，预计持续到7月，中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车，预计6月初重启。 扬子巴斯夫34万吨装置4月7日检修30-40天，中沙天津38万吨装置4月21日检修 45天左右，中海壳牌35万吨装置5月6日停车检修20天左右。截至5月8日，中国 大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在68.99%（环比上期增加0.56%），其中草酸催 化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇开工负荷在66.75%（环比上期增加4.54%）。5月 6日-5月11日，张家港到货数量约为2.4万吨，太仓码头到货数量约为1.8万吨， 宁波到货数量约为1.7万吨，上海到货数量约为0万吨，主港计划到货总数约为 5.9万吨。 需求方面，聚酯工厂负荷94.2%。国内织造综合开工率约在63.80%附近， ...

美国CPI保持稳定，宏观向好推升油价继续反弹 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结 1. 数据变化分析 2025年5月13日，原油期货价格普遍上扬。SC原油主力合约收报482元/桶，较 前一交易日涨1.60%，盘中波动区间为[468.2, 482.3]元/桶；WTI和Brent分别收 于61.53美元/桶（+0.77%）和64.99美元/桶（+1.74%），延续近期反弹趋势。 价差方面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI分别走强至1.87美元/桶和5.33美元/桶，反映SC 原油相对外盘的溢价扩大；Brent-WTI价差升至3.46美元/桶，显示大西洋盆地轻 质油结构性偏紧。此外，SC连-连3价差小幅扩张至15.7元/桶，近月合约支撑较 强。美国API原油库存意外增加428.7万桶（预期减少196万桶），结束连续去库 趋势，对盘面形成压制。 2. 供需与库存动态 供给端：地缘政治扰动持续。美国对伊朗的制裁升级预期升温（5月14日特朗普 表态"迫使伊朗石油出口归零"），但沙特阿美称可在数周内将日产量从940万桶 提升至1200万桶（5月13日），其低边际成本（每百万桶增产对应现金流增120 亿美元）强化了OPEC+闲置产 ...

关税缓和刺激备货需求增长，PX、PTA短期或维持偏强运行 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月13日，PX 主力合约收6708.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.81%，基差 为-387.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4750.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.85%，基差 为-30.0元/吨。 成本端，05月13日，布油主力合约收盘64.99美元/桶。供应端，PX：中海油惠 州150万吨3月29日检修50天左右，扬子石化重整检修至5月上旬，PX有降负预 期，天津石化PX计划6-7月份检修，海南炼化计划4-5月检修，浙石化250万吨装 置已重启，盛虹炼化400万吨原计划4月检修，目前推迟至5月。PX国内装置开 工率为73%，亚洲开工率为67.9%。PTA：台化兴业150万吨5月6日检修，逸盛 大连225万吨计划4月26日检修6周，另375万吨4月21日重启。嘉兴石化150万吨 计划5月中检修10天左右，中泰石化120万吨计划5月中上复产。PTA开工率在 75.6%附近。聚酯开工率在94.2%附近。 贸易方面，中欧决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制，且中美层面出现积极进 展，市场风险偏好提升，油价在OPEC+增产消 ...

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 星期三 苯乙烯日报：贸易战中止后苯乙烯强势反弹，收复清明后缺口 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：5 月 13 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 5.99%，报 7550 元/吨，基差 115 元/吨（100 元/吨）； 成本：布油主力合约收盘 62.0 美元/桶（+1.0 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力 合约收盘 65.0 美元/桶（+1.1 美元/桶）。5 月 13 日华东纯苯现货报价 6100 元/吨（-25 元/吨）。 纯苯：受浙江石化重整装置重启和埃克森美孚产能投放影响，纯苯装置 开工率继续上升；但本周多条加氢苯装置选择降负荷或检修停车，开工水平 明显走低。下游五大品类生产节奏参差不齐，整体对纯苯的需求出现回暖， 不过周度供需缺口仍在扩大。价格方面，仍受国际原油及宏观政策氛围牵 引：前半周随油价回落，后半周国内重要会议释放利好，加之 10 日至 11 日 的中美经贸高层会谈提振了市场信心，纯苯在 5,600 元/吨附近企稳反弹。当 前市场隐性库存偏高，预计五、六月进口量将保持高位。需求端来看，下游 苯乙烯、己内酰胺 ...

原油燃料油日报：中美贸易谈判进展顺利，原油维持反弹态势 一、日度市场总结 需求端： 原油期货市场日度总结（2025年05月09日） 数据变化分析 价格走势：中国SC原油期货价格显著走高，5月9日报472.4元/桶，较前日上涨 2.47%，盘中波动区间为[458.9, 472.4]，显示短期买盘活跃；WTI和Brent期货 价格维持稳定，分别持稳于60.28美元/桶和63.12美元/桶。 价差变化：SC-Brent价差大幅走强至2.07美元/桶（+250.85%），SC-WTI价差 同步扩大至4.91美元/桶（+43.15%），反映SC相对外盘溢价显著提升；Brent- WTI价差维持2.84美元/桶不变，表明欧美市场供需结构稳定；SC连-连3价差小 幅上扬至15.5元/桶（+6.9%），近月合约支撑增强。 供需及库存分析 供给端： OPEC+政策延续：OPEC+于5月会议宣布维持现有减产协议，但俄罗斯计划小 幅提高6月出口量，引发市场对供应松动的担忧。 美国产能扩张：贝克休斯钻井数连续三周回升至620台（资讯未提及具体数值但 趋势存在），页岩油产量或逐步释放。 地缘风险扰动：中东局势紧张（资讯提及伊朗油轮遇袭 ...

苯乙烯日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 星期一 苯乙烯日报：中美磋商进展顺利，关注原油价格方向选择 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 价格：5 月 9 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.34%，报 7005 元/吨，基差 130 元/吨（-74 元/吨） 成本：布油主力合约收盘 59.9 美元/桶（+1.8 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.8 美元/桶（+1.7 美元/桶）。5 月 9 日华东纯苯现货报价 5645 元/吨（+40 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.0 万吨（-0.6 万吨），环比小幅下降 2.97%，江苏 港口库存 6.85 万吨（-1.67 万吨），环比下降 19.6%，苯乙烯库存持续去化，现货流动 性继续收紧。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应有增量预期。受部分装置重启影响，节前 苯乙烯周产量环比提升 2.43%至 33.07 万吨（+0.78 万吨），工厂产能利用率 72.2% （+1.7%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 47.4%（-1.35%），ABS 产能 利用率 69.0%（ ...