能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 2025 年 8 月 7 日 星期四 山东新装置实现产出，EB 供应进一步提升 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：8 月 6 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.04%，报 7285/吨，基差 60（+42 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 0.42%，报 6246 元/吨。 成本：8 月 6 日布油主力合约收盘 65.2 桶（-1.1 美元/桶），WTI 原油主 力合约收盘 67.6 桶（-1.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6030 元/吨（+0 元/ 吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.7 万吨（+1.2 万吨），环比累库 5.9%，江 苏港口库存 16.4 万吨（+1.3 万吨），环比累库 8.8%，苯乙烯整体累库。 纯苯港口库存 17.0 万吨（-0.1 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 36.1 万吨（+0.0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.9%（+0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 54.3%（-1.0%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.9%（-0.9%）， ...

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current market shows a weak supply - demand balance. The supply - side capacity utilization is rising, while the demand - side experiences a seasonal decline in new energy vehicle sales but an enhanced long - term demand expectation from emerging applications. The rapid convergence of the basis indicates a narrowing of the spot - futures arbitrage space, and the continuous increase in open interest implies intensified divergence. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the core suppressing factors being the mainly rigid demand in the spot market and the expected resumption of mines in Jiangxi. However, the downside of the market may be supported by technical buying and long - term demand prospects [3] Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On August 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 1,780 yuan/ton to 69,620 yuan/ton. The basis weakened significantly, narrowing from 3,810 yuan/ton to 2,030 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased by 11.08% to 257,770 lots, reaching a recent high, with intense long - short competition. The trading volume decreased slightly by 2.71% to 425,359 lots, and market activity cooled slightly [1][5] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The weekly capacity utilization of lithium carbonate increased by 1.72 percentage points to 63.92%, driven by the increased production of the salt lake lithium extraction process. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable. In the long - term, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment in late July, which may force traditional lithium salt enterprises to upgrade their technologies. Downstream demand was divided. In July, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 17% month - on - month to 789,000 units. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.48%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, with continuous destocking for two weeks but at a slower pace [2][5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate on August 6, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous day or previous period are presented in a table, along with the capacity utilization and inventory changes of lithium carbonate and the prices of some battery cells [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On August 6, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,731 yuan/ton, down 257 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,850 yuan/ton, both down 250 yuan/ton. In August, the procurement demand in the market showed a warming trend, but actual transactions were mainly rigid demand due to the strong basis in the spot market. Downstream enterprises remained cautious and did not show obvious inventory restocking behavior. Information on mines in Jiangxi has not been officially confirmed [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on July 30, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 789,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase but a 17% month - on - month decrease. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.258 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year - on - year increase but a 20% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.264 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [7] - **Industry News**: In 2025, the humanoid robot market exploded, with a large number of capital inflows. On July 22, Hive Energy's chairman revealed that the company was promoting the R & D and mass production of solid - state batteries, planning to trial - produce the first - generation 140Ah semi - solid - state battery on its 2.3GWh semi - solid mass - production line in Q4 2025, which would be supplied to BMW MINI's next - generation models in 2027. Recently, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state lithium battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment [8][9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, and battery cell prices, along with their data sources [10][14][16][18][20][23][26]

乙二醇去库难提振盘面，等待淡季尾声情绪修复机会 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格环比微涨9元/吨至4435元/吨，基差 缩窄9元/吨至55元/吨，表明期货对现货贴水幅度略有收窄。1-5月间价差 继续走弱至-52元/吨，远月贴水加深反映市场对中长期供给压力的预期。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓减少6034手至21.8万手，成交环比下降13.96% 至9万手，显示资金参与度降温，市场转向观望情绪。 供给端：乙二醇总体开工率维持63.09%，油制、煤制及甲醇制装置开工率 均持平，但石脑油制利润亏损100美元/吨，煤制亏损214元/吨，甲醇制亏 损达1120元/吨，成本压力下生产端仍无明显减产信号。 需求端：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终端 需求处于季节性淡季，未见超预期改善。 库存端：华东主港库存环比下降4.8万吨至42.72万吨，张家港库存减少2万 吨至12.8万吨，港口发货量维持高位，但近期到港量连续两周上升至16.87 万吨，关注后续累库压力。 乙二醇短期或延续低位震荡，上方承压于成本逻辑与供需弱现实。供给 端，油煤制利润均处深度亏损但开工稳定，暗示厂商暂时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal downside risk of crude oil prices is increasing. Supply increments from Russia and Iraq may offset the support from OPEC+ production cuts, and there are signs of medium - term supply loosening pressure. Although the high refinery utilization rate in the US and the destocking of refined oil products provide short - term support, weak Asian fuel oil demand and a slowdown in global manufacturing activities may limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in August and the progress of Middle East exports [6]. - Overall, the supply side may face increasing pressure, while the demand side shows strong US refinery demand but weak Asian fuel oil demand. The short - term oil price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with a risk of decline, though US inventory reduction and high refinery demand may offer some support [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 6, the price of the SC main contract dropped slightly to 505.9 yuan/barrel (previous value: 508.8 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.57%), while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 65.17 dollars/barrel and 67.68 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC against Brent and WTI weakened, and the spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 months also slightly shrank, indicating near - end price pressure [2]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: Geopolitical disturbances continue. Russia may increase its oil exports to the West to 2 million barrels per day in August, and Iraq plans to resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline. The US EIA crude oil production implied demand increased, and the refinery utilization rate reached a high of 96.9%, suggesting strong short - term North American production activities [3]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: US refinery demand is strong, with gasoline and refined oil inventories decreasing, supporting cracking margins. However, Asian fuel oil demand is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market remains weak. There is a differentiation in regional demand, as shown by the slight decline in the Japanese refinery utilization rate and changes in gasoline and kerosene inventories [4]. - **Inventory - Side Analysis**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels unexpectedly, and refined oil destocking accelerated, verifying demand resilience. Japanese commercial crude oil inventories also decreased, but the digestion capacity of Russia's incremental exports for global on - land inventories needs attention [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The expected increase in exports from Russia and Iraq may offset the support from OPEC+ production cuts, and there is potential medium - term supply loosening pressure. The high refinery utilization rate in the US and refined oil destocking provide short - term support, but weak Asian fuel oil demand and a slowdown in global manufacturing activities may limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in August and the progress of Middle East exports [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures all declined on August 6 compared to the previous day. The spreads between different crude oil varieties changed, and the US dollar index decreased while the S&P 500 and DAX index increased. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the refinery utilization rate increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Most fuel oil prices remained stable or changed slightly on August 6. The spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and China decreased slightly. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, while some US fuel oil inventories decreased [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: US EIA crude oil imports decreased, and the planned production of crude oil increased. Russia plans to increase oil exports to the West, and Iraq may resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline [10][11]. - **Demand**: US EIA crude oil and distillate fuel oil production implied demand increased, and the refinery utilization rate was higher than expected. However, gasoline and refined oil production decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: US EIA strategic petroleum reserve, refined oil, gasoline, and crude oil inventories all changed. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and Japanese commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased while kerosene inventory increased [13][15]. - **Market Information**: The prices of blending raw materials for oil mixing decreased, and the prices of domestic marine fuel oil decreased moderately. In the trading market, the trading volume is low, and the price center has not shifted significantly [16]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts related to crude oil and fuel oil, including prices, production, inventories, and refinery utilization rates, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [17][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price is likely to continue its weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited. The expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 6, the price of the SHFE copper main contract slightly declined to 78,210 yuan/ton, a 0.37% drop from the previous trading day, and the LME copper price also fell to 9,634.5 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium/discount weakened across the board, with the premium of flat - copper dropping to 65 yuan/ton, a 40.91% narrowing from the previous day, and the wet - copper even turning to par. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 67.32 dollars/ton, indicating increased supply pressure in the overseas market [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest decreased by 1,316 lots to 265,284 lots, showing cautious market trading sentiment. The domestic SHFE inventory continued to accumulate to 156,125 tons, a 1.48% increase from the previous week, and the rising inventory pressure suppressed the price [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: There have been frequent short - term disturbances. The Indonesian PTGresik smelter is under maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks due to equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of production. New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, such as the 40,000 - ton copper strip project of Anhui Zhongcheng Copper Industry and the 35,000 - ton cold - rolled high - precision copper strip project of Fujian Guangmin Copper Industry, but it will take time for the capacity to be realized [3]. - **需求端**: Demand shows structural differentiation. The lithium - ion copper foil maintains high prosperity, with the July shipment volume increasing by 11.35% month - on - month, and the August operating rate is expected to rise to 78.75%. However, the traditional sectors are under pressure, with the August white - goods production schedule down 4.9% year - on - year, and the spot trading in North China is sluggish. In addition, the demand for solid - state battery anode current collectors is a long - term growth point [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventory has been continuously accumulating. On August 6, the LME inventory increased to 20,346 tons, and the SHFE inventory climbed to 156,000 tons, both reaching recent highs, indicating a marginal easing of the supply - demand contradiction [5]. c. Market Summary The copper price may continue the weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited, and the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **现货(升贴水)**: The price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 78,790 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,500 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop. The premium of premium copper decreased by 18.18% to 135 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper decreased by 40.91% to 65 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - copper decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed by 6.98% to - 63 dollars/ton [8]. - **价格**: The SHFE copper price decreased from 78,500 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,210 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop, while the LME copper price increased by 0.41% to 9,674 dollars/ton [8]. - **库存**: The LME inventory increased by 8.41% to 20,346 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.48% to 156,125 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 0.03% to 263,104 short tons [8]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory, with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [9][11][14].

需求弱化与高库存施压，PX、PTA下行趋势或难改 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 需求端：轻纺城成交量连续低于季节性中枢，印证终端纺织需求呈现旺季 不旺特征。聚酯环节库存压力向产业链上游传导，短期大型聚酯企业虽维 持刚性开工，产业链负反馈压力尚未完全释放。 库存端：当前PTA工厂库存虽维持中位水平，加工费恶化引发装置减产降 负，聚酯下游环节开机率维持淡季特征，需求尚未进入淡季尾声，PX端供 需无更多利好支撑，上行驱动不足。 2. 聚酯 08月06日，短纤主力合约收6414.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.46%。华东 市场现货价为6480.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌5.0元/吨，基差为66.0元/ 吨。 供应端PX和PTA期货价格在2025年7月末至8月初呈现冲高回落态势，PX从 6984元/吨高点回落至6794元/吨，PTA从4856元/吨跌至4724元/吨，反映出 成本支撑转弱及供应宽松格局。需求端轻纺城MA15成交 ...

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain continues to face pressure due to weakened cost support and a shift in supply - demand dynamics [1] - The current polyester industry chain is under triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory, and the price center of the industry chain is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Prices**: On August 1st, the PX主力合约 closed at 6,812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 126.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4,744.0 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 86.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil主力合约 closed at 71.78 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 69.36 US dollars/barrel [2] - **Supply**: The cost center of the PX link is suppressed by the weakening of crude oil. The continuous low processing fee may lead to the expectation of a reduction in the load of some devices. The centralized maintenance of large - scale PTA plants has gradually ended, and the high processing fee drives the operating rate to remain high, and the supply - side pressure has increased marginally [2] - **Demand**: The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City has reached a new high this year, but the sustainability of terminal orders is questionable. After the seasonal restocking ends, it may return to a sluggish state. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but the low cash flow and high finished - product inventory form a negative feedback, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of subsequent production cuts on the PTA demand side. Under the overseas clothing destocking cycle, the incremental momentum of export orders is insufficient [3] - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventories have been destocked to a medium - low level in history for three consecutive weeks, but the restart of devices in August and the narrowing of the export window will reverse the inventory trend. The explicit inventory in the PX link is at a low level, but the implicit storage capacity is under pressure. The high PTA processing fee stimulates the risk of the implicit inventory becoming explicit. It is expected to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle after mid - August [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - **Prices**: On August 1st, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6,382.0 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,530.0 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 148.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply - demand - inventory situation**: The PX and PTA futures prices have continued to decline, indicating weakened upstream cost support. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of polyester products is significantly higher than the five - year average, and the entire industry chain is under the triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected that the price center of the industry chain will remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PX futures all decreased on August 1st compared with July 31st. The Chinese main port CFR price of PX spot remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price decreased. The PX basis increased significantly [5] - **PTA**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PTA futures all declined. The Chinese main port CFR price of PTA spot remained unchanged. The PTA basis, 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 5 - 9 spread increased. The PTA import profit decreased [5] - **Short - fiber**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of short - fiber futures all decreased. The spot price in the East China market decreased, and the PF basis increased. The PF 1 - 5 spread and 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol decreased slightly, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The processing spreads of most products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume of Light Textile City increased [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 1st, the annual rate of the US core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, and consumer spending was almost stagnant. The US Treasury Secretary expected to announce the nomination for the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Japanese central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the inflation forecast. The total value of global gold demand in the second quarter soared to a new record of 132 billion US dollars [7] - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, but two directors voted against it and advocated for a rate cut. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's annual rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP. The US economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations [7][8] 3.3.2 Supply - demand - demand aspect - On August 1st, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.21%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 468.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 127.0 million meters [9] 3.4 Appendix - The supply side of PX may see a decrease in device load due to low processing fees, while the PTA operating rate is high, maintaining sufficient supply. The demand side has short - term support, but its sustainability needs attention. The inventory side may shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation, and future prices may fluctuate or weaken [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are likely to continue a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, but the upside is limited. The actual supply increase is uncertain as OPEC+ production increase needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 1, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly dropped to 527.9 yuan/barrel (-0.64% from the previous day), while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $69.36/barrel and $71.78/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly weakened to $1.43/barrel (previous value $2.08), a decline of 31.25%, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by $0.65 to $3.85/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened by 2.2 yuan to 11.6 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for near - month contracts [2]. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ announced on August 3 that it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan since 2024. The US supply is expanding, with May's crude oil production reaching a record 13.49 million barrels per day and Texas production increasing to 5.752 million barrels per day. However, the number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 5 to 410 in the week of August 1, suggesting a slowdown in short - term shale oil production growth. Geopolitical risks remain, such as the attack on a Russian refinery and the redirection of Russian oil tankers due to US sanctions [3]. - **Demand Side**: Demand shows structural differentiation. US petroleum product demand in May reached the highest point since January, and high refinery operating rates support short - term consumption. However, the expected year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's CPI in July dropped to 1.9% (previous value 2.0%), and the risk of economic slowdown may suppress oil demand. Asian buyers may increase their dependence on Middle Eastern and North American crude oil, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI prices [3]. - **Inventory Side**: There is no latest data on US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories, but EIA data shows that US crude oil and refined product supplies reached a new high in May. With the expected OPEC+ production increase, medium - and long - term inventory pressure may gradually accumulate [4]. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, but the upside is restricted. The supply increase is questionable as the actual capacity release of OPEC+ needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 1, 2025, SC crude oil futures price was 527.9 yuan/barrel, WTI was $67.26/barrel, and Brent was $69.52/barrel. The SC - Brent spread was $3.69/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $5.95/barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 42,669,100 barrels, a 1.84% increase from the previous period. The US refinery weekly operating rate was 95.4%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 1, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,916 yuan/ton, and the LU was 3,645 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory was 24.668 million barrels, a 4.09% increase from the previous period [8]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ decided on August 3 to increase oil production by 547,000 - 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 410 in the week of August 1. US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day [9][10]. - **Demand**: Iran lifted flight restrictions on August 2, which may increase oil demand. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery, which may affect supply [11]. - **Inventory**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The number of medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts was 5,249,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous day. Russian export restrictions may lead to a tight global crude oil and refined product spot market [12]. - **Market Information**: On Monday, spot gold opened slightly higher, and WTI crude oil opened 0.5% lower. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased in the week of July 29. The eurozone's expected CPI year - on - year growth rate in July dropped to 1.9% [13]. Supply - Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, and various inventory data [16][18][22].

纯苯&苯乙烯日报 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 8 月 4 日 星期一 OPEC 增产大超预期，拖累苯乙烯价格下行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：8 月 1 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 7296/吨，基差 54（+11 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.54%，报 6260 元/吨。 成本：8 月 1 日布油主力合约收盘 69.3 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主 力合约收盘 72.5 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6075 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.7 万吨（+1.2 万吨），环比累库 5.9%，江 苏港口库存 16.4 万吨（+1.3 万吨），环比累库 8.8%，苯乙烯整体累库。 纯苯港口库存 17.0 万吨（-0.1 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 36.1 万吨（+0.0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.9%（+0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 54.3%（-1.0%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.9%（-0.9%） ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - **价差情况**: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **利润情况**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - **库存与到港量**: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].