1. Core Viewpoint The oil price trend is weak and demand is flat, causing a smooth decline in polyester raw materials. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Due to the downward shift of the PX - PTA cost center, varieties with high inventory pressure like FDY/DTY may need to further reduce prices to clear inventory, while the price of short - fiber with low inventory has relatively strong support [2][5]. 2. Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On October 09, the PX main contract closed at 6586.0 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 100.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4584.0 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Cost end: On October 09, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.3 US dollars/barrel. Demand end: On October 09, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 857.33 million meters [3]. - Supply end: Although the PX futures price rose slightly, the basis discount continued to expand to - 100 yuan/ton, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market remained unchanged, possibly related to the recovery of overseas plant operation and the expected release of new domestic production capacity. The current operating rate of PTA is still high, and some plants plan to overhaul or reduce production under the environment of low processing fees, but there is still an over - supply risk on the supply side as a whole. The decline of the crude oil price center weakens the cost support, and the supply pressure of PX is transmitted to PTA, putting pressure on PTA production profits, and the operating rate may be passively lowered later [3]. - Demand end: Polyester demand shows weak signals. The transaction volume of 680 million meters in Light Textile City is significantly lower than the 15 - day average of 857 million meters, reflecting the weakening of downstream textile orders and the lack of sustainability of terminal restocking. The sales rate of polyester filament has fluctuated and declined recently, and the seasonal decline of loom operation may further suppress the PTA procurement demand [4]. - Inventory end: PTA factory inventory has accumulated slightly for two consecutive weeks. Currently, the basis maintains a discount structure (- 44 yuan/ton), indicating that the spot liquidity is relatively abundant. Factories mainly focus on active inventory reduction under the situation of weakening demand and low processing fees. As the supply - demand contradiction deepens, if the demand side fails to improve substantially, the inventory pressure may gradually become apparent [4]. Polyester - On October 09, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6276.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6405.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The inventory of polyester short - fiber is 7.58 days, significantly lower than the five - year average of 4.96 days. The inventory of POY is 13.6 days, lower than the average of 20.40 days. The inventory of FDY is 24.1 days, slightly exceeding the average of 22.19 days. The inventory of DTY is 28.9 days, close to the average of 28.42 days. The structural differentiation shows that the inventory reduction of short - fiber and POY is better than that of FDY/DTY [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Futures and Spot Price Changes - PX futures: The main contract price was 6586 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.24% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 43.50%, and the main contract positions decreased by 0.99%. PX spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB both declined slightly [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4584 yuan/ton on October 09, down 0.22% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 5.37%, and the main contract positions increased by 4.75%. PTA spot prices in China's main port CFR declined slightly [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6292 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.25% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 42.79%, and the main contract positions decreased by 2.08%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged [6]. Other Price and Index Changes - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil main contracts declined. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha declined, while the prices of ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged [6]. - The processing spreads of some products changed. For example, the processing spread of PX increased by 2.53%, and the processing spread of PTA increased by 6.33%, while the processing spreads of some other products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [7]. - The total trading volume of Light Textile City decreased by 44.72% compared with September 30, and the trading volumes of long - fiber and short - fiber fabrics also decreased significantly [7]. - The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 19.18%, while the inventory days of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY decreased [7]. 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 09, the minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed internal division among officials, cautiously hinting at a further interest rate cut this year. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 371.5 million barrels, higher than the market expectation of 188.5 million barrels and the previous week's 179.2 million barrels [8]. - On October 08, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in September was 3.38%, up from the previous value of 3.20%. Fed's Kashkari said that the current economic data showed some signs of stagflation. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 09, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, with a month - on - month growth of - 44.72%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 541.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 138.0 million meters [9]. 5. Inferred Future Price Trends - Supply end: The slight increase in PX price may indicate potential supply pressure. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the negative basis may mean sufficient spot supply, which may suppress PX production profits and lead enterprises to reduce the operating rate. If PX supply increases, PTA production may increase, but downstream demand needs to be considered [38]. - Demand end: The significantly lower trading volume in Light Textile City than the 15 - day average shows weak downstream textile demand. The decrease in the demand for polyester products may lead to a decline in PTA demand. Low trading volume may reflect a decrease in downstream orders, affecting polyester operation and further suppressing PTA demand [38]. - Inventory end: Although the PTA factory inventory data is missing, combined with the negative basis and the decline in demand, it can be inferred that the inventory may accumulate and there is an over - supply situation. The negative basis usually means sufficient spot supply and increasing inventory pressure [38]. - Overall, due to over - supply and insufficient demand, the prices of PX and PTA may decline in the future [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA continue to operate weakly due to weakened cost support and inventory accumulation pressure [1] - The price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, with POY potentially performing stronger due to low inventory [4] - Considering the supply, demand, and inventory situation, PX and PTA prices may continue to face downward pressure unless there is a sustained improvement in demand or supply - side maintenance and production cuts [38] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,570 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,594 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.77 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.18 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 865,670 meters [2] - The supply of PX and PTA is generally loose. The continuous weakening of the PX basis reflects the current oversupply pressure in the spot market. Although some domestic PX plants have short - term shutdowns and overhauls, the overall operating rate remains relatively high. For PTA, low processing fees have increased the factory's willingness to cut production, but the reduction of some plants under high inventory is insufficient to reverse the supply - demand pattern, and the supply pressure will continue with future new plant commissioning plans [2] - Downstream polyester demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City is mainly driven by short - term factors such as pre - holiday restocking. The 15 - day average trading data is still lower than the normal level in the peak season, and the terminal weaving orders show seasonal weakening signs. The polyester sector maintains rigid demand, but there is a risk of a decline in the operating rate under increasing inventory pressure, and the procurement demand for PTA may weaken marginally [3] - The PTA inventory structure continues the inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory days of PTA factories are flat month - on - month but still at a high absolute level, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory reflects the loose supply - demand pattern. Considering the incremental pressure brought by the commissioning of the new Fengming plant in October and the uncertainty of the sustainability of downstream restocking, the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared, and high inventory will continue to suppress the spot price and futures valuation [3] Polyester - On September 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,276 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,405 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 trading volume of China Light Textile City has continuously climbed from 760,000 meters to 865,670 meters. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (6.36 days), polyester filament DTY (29.5 days), and FDY (25.7 days) are all higher than the average of the past 5 years, while the inventory days of POY (18.8 days) are lower than the 5 - year average of 20.4 days, indicating inventory reduction pressure for staple fiber and some filament varieties. Overall, driven by the downward trend of oil prices at the PX - PTA cost end and the slow recovery of demand, the price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, and POY may perform stronger due to low inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.50% to 6,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 5.68% to 189,612 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17.48% to 68,124 lots [5] - PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged at 816 US dollars/ton and 792 US dollars/ton respectively [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25% to 4,594 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.27% to 593,958 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.50% to 964,348 lots [5] - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 613 US dollars/ton [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.95% to 6,276 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 1.21% to 183,370 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19.97% to 93,016 lots [5] - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.47% to 6,405 yuan/ton [5] - Other industrial chain prices such as Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased by 1.13% to 189.3 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [6] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 17.93% to 1.23 million meters, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [6][9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 11.05%, 8.74%, 10.76%, and 6.35% respectively [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 30, gold broke through 3,830 US dollars, reaching new highs, and the value of the US gold reserve exceeded 1 trillion US dollars [7] - New York Fed President Williams supported interest rate cuts at the previous meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, estimating the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%; this year's voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, is open to future interest rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters; Cleveland Fed President Hamerak continues to advocate a hawkish stance, saying that tight monetary policy needs to be maintained to curb inflation [7] - Switzerland plans to invest in the US gold refining industry in exchange for Trump's tariff reduction [7] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, with Israel to withdraw troops in stages, not occupy or annex Gaza; a peace committee chaired by Trump will be established, and Israel has accepted the plan while Hamas will review it [7] - On September 29, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month; from January to August, the year - on - year increase was 0.9% [7] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 17.93%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX and PTA main futures and basis, PTA futures monthly spreads, short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product inventory days, etc [10][12][14] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - On September 30, PX and PTA main contracts declined by 1.5% and 1.25% respectively. The decline in crude oil prices may affect upstream costs. The trading volume of Light Textile City on that day was 1.23 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 865,670 meters, indicating possible fluctuations in recent demand [37] - On the supply side, the negative PX basis may indicate sufficient spot supply or inventory accumulation pressure, and there may be some plant restarts. For PTA, the basis has turned from negative to positive, but the inventory has not changed significantly, and the supply pressure may increase as factories maintain high operating rates under low profits. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning or overhaul plans [37] - On the demand side, the sudden increase in the trading volume of Light Textile City, but with a daily average of 865,000 meters, may show short - term restocking or temporary order increases in the downstream, but the overall improvement of the textile industry is uncertain. If the polyester operating rate remains high, it may support PTA demand; otherwise, there may be inventory accumulation risks [37] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory days are at a medium level, but the social inventory has increased compared with last week. If downstream demand cannot be sustained, inventory may continue to accumulate, especially if the supply side maintains a high operating rate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the next few weeks [38] - Overall, the decline in crude oil prices may reduce the costs of PX and PTA, but PX supply is sufficient and PTA supply pressure is high; the short - term demand is strong but its sustainability is uncertain; inventory has begun to accumulate. Therefore, PX and PTA prices may continue to be under downward pressure unless there is a continuous improvement in demand or supply - side overhauls and production cuts [38]

Group 1: Report Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol is likely to remain downward. Cost - side support from rebounding crude oil and coal prices is marginal, while supply pressure persists due to the recovery of oil - and coal - based plant operating rates. Demand lacks seasonal improvement, leading to a rapid increase in port inventories. The strengthening basis reflects the willingness of spot merchants to support prices, but the upside for futures is limited by high inventories. In the medium term, the focus should be on cost fluctuations and port de - stocking pace. Without substantial demand improvement, prices may continue to trade in the bottom range [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,224 yuan/ton to 4,207 yuan/ton, a 0.4% decline. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, indicating increased market wait - and - see sentiment. The East China spot price also fell by 20 yuan/ton to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 76 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, showing stronger short - term support in the spot market than in the futures market. The 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken to - 75 yuan/ton, reflecting pressure on the far - month contract expectations, while the 5 - 9 spread rebounded significantly by 47 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, suggesting a potential marginal alleviation of medium - term supply - demand contradictions [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The main contract's open interest decreased by 6,856 lots to 314,030 lots, but trading volume increased by 18% to 136,773 lots, indicating that some funds left the market while market activity increased and short - term long - short competition intensified [2]. - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 71.31%, mainly due to a 2.5 - percentage - point increase in the oil - based route operating rate to 76.94%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 62.95%. Oil - based profits were still deeply in the red but did not deteriorate marginally, and coal - based profits were stable at - 574 yuan/ton, with no obvious relief in cost - side pressure [2]. - **需求端**: The downstream polyester plant load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal orders did not show seasonal improvement, and polyester sales were dull, resulting in raw material purchases mainly for rigid demand, lacking upward drivers on the demand side [3]. - **库存端**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons week - on - week to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, reaching a new high for the year. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, port pick - up volume remained low, and inventory pressure accumulated rapidly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货相关数据**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased from 4,224 yuan/ton to 4,207 yuan/ton, a 0.4% decline. Trading volume increased by 18.01% to 136,773 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.14% to 314,030 lots [5]. - **现货及价差数据**: The East China market spot price of MEG dropped by 20 yuan/ton to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.11% to 63 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19.05% to - 75 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.75% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 24.48% to 108 yuan/ton [5]. - **利润数据**: The coal - based profit decreased by 5.23% to - 604 yuan/ton, while data for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits were not provided [5]. - **开工负荷数据**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 2.19% to 71.3%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 3.43% to 76.9% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 63.0%. The polyester plant load, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained stable [5]. - **库存与到港量数据**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The event of an Indonesian copper mine being declared "force majeure" and suspending the execution of the fourth - quarter supply contract still has an impact. The marginal change in the market turning from supply - demand balance to supply shortage within the year has pushed up global copper prices. However, as the current price remains high, the market's game regarding factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts has deepened, and short - term market trading still plays a significant role [6] - The copper price may show high - level fluctuations in the range of 82,000 - 84,000 RMB/ton, driven by supply disruptions, improved domestic demand, and the suppression of the US dollar [36][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of September 30, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose significantly to 83,280 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous day. The LME copper price also increased to 10,428.5 US dollars/ton, a cumulative increase of 223.5 US dollars from September 24. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper increased significantly from 25 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper narrowed, indicating a warming sentiment in the spot market and a strengthening of the basis overall [1] - **Positions and Transactions**: The inventory data showed differentiation. The LME copper inventory increased by 1,220 tons (+4.77%) in a single day, while the SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 500 tons (-0.35%), and the COMEX inventory accumulated slightly. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed to - 29.22 US dollars/ton [2] 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru announced the resumption of operations on September 29, but the Chuquicamata smelter under Codelco in Chile suspended production due to an equipment accident. Coupled with the problem of declining copper ore grades in South America, short - term supply disruptions continued. The domestic smelting end maintained a high operating rate, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates declined slightly [3] - **Demand Side**: The acceleration of domestic infrastructure project starts drove the demand for copper in the power sector. The air - conditioner production schedule in September increased by 15% year - on - year, but the real - estate completion data remained weak. Overseas, the European manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, suppressing export orders. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate hikes led to a stronger US dollar index, which inhibited overseas speculative buying [4] - **Inventory Side**: The global visible inventory continued to show differentiation. The LME inventory rebounded to 26,823 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 143,400 tons, and the domestic bonded - area inventory remained at a low level [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The table shows the data and changes of various indicators such as spot prices, premiums and discounts, futures prices (SHFE and LME), and inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX) from September 24 to September 30, 2025 [8] 3.3 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. The release of new supply - side production capacity and high existing operating rates exert downward pressure, while the growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices on the demand side provide bottom support. The strengthening of the basis reflects a marginal relief of spot pressure, but warehouse receipt pressure still exists. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the post - holiday restocking rhythm, the ramping - up speed of new salt - lake production capacity, and the follow - up information of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 30, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 72,800 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous trading day. The basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 820 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.86% to 232,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.82% to 317,000 lots [1]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, but the production capacity of leading enterprises was accelerating. Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang and Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake were put into operation, increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, the retail end of new energy vehicles remained resilient. From September 1 - 27, 1.039 million new energy vehicles were retailed and 1.154 million were wholesaled. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 4.98% to 63,250 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials increased slightly, indicating marginal improvement in cathode material demand. However, the price of iron - lithium battery cells remained flat, showing structural differentiation. Carbonate lithium inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, with 136,825 physical tons on September 30, and the slow destocking speed restricted the price rebound momentum [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. The new supply - side production capacity and high existing operating rates suppress prices, while the growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices on the demand side provide bottom support. The strengthening of the basis reflects a marginal relief of spot pressure, but warehouse receipt pressure still exists. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the post - holiday restocking rhythm, the ramping - up speed of new salt - lake production capacity, and the follow - up information of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Product | September 30, 2025 | September 29, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate main contract | 72,800 | 73,920 | - 1,120 | - 1.52% | yuan/ton | | Basis | 300 | - 820 | 1,120 | 136.59% | yuan/ton | | Main contract open interest | 231,964 | 251,749 | - 19,785 | - 7.86% | lots | | Main contract trading volume | 317,458 | 465,591 | - 148,133 | - 31.82% | lots | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate market price | 73,100 | 73,100 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Spodumene concentrate market price | 6,390 | 6,390 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Lepidolite concentrate market price | 3,400 | 3,400 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Lithium hexafluorophosphate | 63,250 | 60,250 | 3,000 | 4.98% | yuan/ton | | Power ternary material | 122,350 | 121,750 | 600 | 0.49% | yuan/ton | | Power lithium iron phosphate | 33,640 | 33,640 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Product | September 26, 2025 | September 19, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate | 71.31% | 71.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | % | | Lithium carbonate inventory | 136,825 | 137,531 | - 706 | - 0.51% | physical tons | | 523 cylindrical ternary battery cell | 4.42 | 4.42 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/piece | | 523 square ternary battery cell | 0.40 | - | 0.00 | 0.51% | yuan/Wh | | 523 soft - pack ternary battery cell | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/Wh | | Square lithium iron phosphate battery cell | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/Wh | | Cobalt - acid lithium battery cell | 6.65 | 6.35 | 0.30 | 4.72% | yuan/Ah | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On September 30, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,800 - 74,300 yuan/ton, with an average of 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, with an average of 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to oscillate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,700 - 74,000 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories' National Day stockpiling was basically completed, and market transactions became significantly lighter. In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounted for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite decreased to 15%. Overall, the September market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate was faster, resulting in a temporary supply shortage [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 - 27, the retail volume of the national passenger - vehicle new energy market was 1.039 million, a 9% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase compared to the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of national passenger - vehicle new energy was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. From September 1 - 27, the wholesale volume of national passenger - vehicle manufacturers' new energy was 1.154 million, a 12% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 21% increase compared to the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of national passenger - vehicle manufacturers' new energy was 54.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.098 million, a 31% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Industry News**: - On September 28, news showed that on September 20, EVE Energy's Hungary base reached a new milestone with the official entry of electromechanical equipment, marking the key stage of the project's civil engineering. The base is expected to supply large cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant after completion in 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs [8][9]. - On September 26, news from "Zhangjiagang Release" showed that on September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, Jiangsu, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan, was completed and put into operation. Tianqi Lithium is a globally leading new - energy materials enterprise focusing on lithium, with 5 production bases globally, and its Zhangjiagang base has an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [9]. - On September 26, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at the Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been in the works for four years, was officially put into operation. The project passed a 120 - hour functional assessment from September 20 - 24, 2025. The project's production capacity release is expected to significantly improve China's lithium - resource self - sufficiency rate. The company has the exclusive mining right for the Zabuye Salt Lake, which is one of the world's three largest and Asia's largest lithium - rich salt lakes [9][10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [11][14][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol is likely to continue its low - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The upper limit is restricted by port inventory pressure and the risk of coal - based cost collapse, while the lower limit is supported by oil - based costs. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - chemical production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on oil - based route costs. If inventory reduction fails to meet expectations, prices may face further pressure [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: On September 26, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan from the previous day, and the weekly decline widened to 0.78%. The East China spot price weakened to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened slightly to 77 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped sharply by 201 yuan to - 66 yuan/ton, indicating a pessimistic market expectation for future supply and demand [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract increased by 27.59% and 2.62% respectively, with open interest reaching 326,000 lots, indicating intensified capital games [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.78%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 74.39% and 62.95% respectively. The coal - based profit deteriorated further to - 584 yuan/ton, but the current supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was stable at 63.43%. The terminal demand improved seasonally to a limited extent, and the polyester sales were dull, resulting in mainly rigid procurement of ethylene glycol and a lack of incremental drivers [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory in the East China main port climbed to 48.57 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased, but the port shipping speed slowed down, and the explicit inventory pressure increased significantly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, the main contract price of MEG futures was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of MEG dropped by 148.89% to - 66 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.56% to - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 281.69% to 129 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: The coal - based profit decreased by 13.18% to - 584 yuan/ton, while the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production were not provided [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate remained unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load was 63.4% [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. c. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **September 28**: International oil prices rose slightly, with stable cost - side support. The ethylene glycol futures market was closed, and the market trading atmosphere was light. The East China price was around 4,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream market fluctuated slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was also stable [6]. - **September 26**: International oil prices fluctuated little, and the cost - side lacked driving force. The ethylene glycol supply - demand pattern was weak, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The East China price was around 4,293 yuan/ton. The mainstream market declined slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was stable [6]. d. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory in the East China main port [8][10][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyester demand shows a moderate recovery, but high inventory suppresses the rebound of PTA prices [2] - In the short - term, the industrial chain will maintain a weak recovery pattern: demand recovery supports the stabilization of PTA prices, but high - inventory varieties (DTY/FDY) still suppress the price increase space, and POY may perform strongly due to healthy inventory, while attention should be paid to the cost - side pressure brought by the increase in PX supply [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 26, the PX main contract closed at 6656.0 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 153.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4646.0 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 46.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, on September 26, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.82 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, on September 26, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 9.88 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 7.744 million meters [3] - On the supply side, the supply - side pressure of PX has increased marginally, with the raw material switching of some refineries and the expected commissioning of new domestic plants gradually realized, resulting in loose spot liquidity; combined with the continuous decline of crude oil prices, the cost support of PX has weakened. For PTA, in the short term, the restart of plants and the commissioning of new capacities are concurrent, the industry operating rate remains at a medium - high level, and the overall spot supply is abundant, while the low processing fee may suppress the upward flexibility of subsequent plant loads [3] - On the demand side, there is a structural differentiation in polyester demand. Although the weekly transaction data of the Light Textile City has improved month - on - month, its guidance for the stocking cycle of polyester filament still needs to be verified. Currently, the polyester operating load is maintained in the range of 82% - 83%, and there is still rigid demand support for PTA, but the terminal grey fabric inventory is still at a high level, and the sustainability of replenishment by weaving enterprises is in doubt, which may restrict the upward driving space of the demand side [4] - On the inventory side, the inventory of PTA factories has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, and the absolute amount of social inventory is still at a high level within the year. For PX, as the supply increases and downstream PTA manufacturers control the raw material procurement rhythm, the PX - NAP spread is under continuous pressure, and the trend of inventory transfer from the PX end to the PTA end in the industrial chain is strengthened, and the overall obvious inventory pressure suppresses prices [4] Polyester - On September 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6326.0 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6440.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 114.0 yuan/ton [5] - The 15 - day moving average of the trading volume of the Light Textile City has been rising continuously (from 7.15 million meters to 7.74 million meters from September 16 to September 26), reaching a new high in the past two weeks, indicating a moderate recovery in terminal demand. There is a differentiation in the inventory of polyester filament varieties: the DTY inventory of 29.5 days is still higher than the five - year average of 28.4 days, the FDY inventory of 25.7 days is significantly higher than the average of 22.2 days, the POY inventory of 18.8 days is lower than the average of 20.4 days, and the short - fiber inventory of 6.36 days is higher than the average of 4.96 days [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products on September 26, 2025, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, etc., as well as their changes and recent price change rates compared with September 25, 2025 are provided [6] - Data on processing spreads, Light Textile City trading volume, industrial chain load rates, and inventory days of polyester products are also presented [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 26, Fed Governor Bowman said it's time to focus on employment rather than inflation; this year's FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thought the more the balance - sheet reduction, the better; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was a bit uneasy about excessive early rate - cuts based on employment data slowdown and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked; San Francisco Fed President Daly also believed it's too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [8] - On September 26, Fed Governor Cook warned the Supreme Court that if dismissed, the market would fall into "chaos" [8] - On September 26, the Swiss National Bank kept the interest rate at 0%, standing still for the first time since starting the rate - cut cycle in March 2024 [8] - On September 26, Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is ready to step down after the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and elections will be held if there is a cease - fire [8] - On September 25, this year's FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of rate - cuts, expressing concerns about inflation issues and not willing to support rate - cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth, labor, etc. have slowed down, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate - cuts may be needed [8] - On September 25, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle, and Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate - cut [8] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 9.88 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 23.65%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 7.69 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 2.2 million meters [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts related to the industrial chain are provided, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and long - filament production and sales situation, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [11][13][15] 5. Appendix: Big - Model Reasoning Process - From the supply side, the prices of PX and PTA main contracts are falling, and the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI are also falling, which may mean that the decline in crude oil prices on the cost side will affect the production costs of PX and PTA. The negative basis of PX and PTA may indicate weak spot markets, high inventory pressure, or poor demand, and the high operating rate may lead to oversupply [37] - From the demand side, the trading volume of the Light Textile City has increased, indicating an improvement in recent demand. The good trading data of the Light Textile City may mean an increase in downstream polyester demand, but whether the demand improvement can be sustained and whether it has been pre - digested by the market need to be judged [38] - From the inventory side, the negative basis of PTA may reflect spot pressure, and inventory may be accumulating. If the supply side maintains a high operating rate while the demand side improvement is insufficient to digest the supply, inventory may continue to increase, suppressing PTA prices. For PX, stable supply and falling crude oil prices may lead to inventory accumulation and further affect prices [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Copper prices will remain high in the near future due to the Indonesian copper mine accident, with increased volatility. However, approaching the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions in single-sided Shanghai copper positions. The expected release of new production capacity will suppress long-term prices, but short-term restocking at the smelting end will support spot prices. On the demand side, high prices and the National Day holiday will lead to a decline in production, making the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season less prominent. Macroscopically, the issuance of policies to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous industry by eight domestic departments may boost market confidence, but high copper prices will intensify the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: From September 22 to September 26, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly from 79,990 yuan/ton to 82,490 yuan/ton and then declined slightly, while the LME copper price dropped from $10,320/ton to $10,205/ton, indicating pressure on the external market. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper shrank significantly from 95 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat copper and wet-process copper widened to -40 yuan/ton and -105 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting the weakening of the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to -$33.91/ton, and the basis weakened overall [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased from 295,609 lots on September 22 to 297,660 lots on September 26, an increase of 0.69%. The SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 25 tons to 144,400 tons, while the COMEX inventory increased by 1,228 short tons to 322,284 short tons [2]. (2) Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project, and Ningbo Jintian Copper's 100,000 - ton A - grade copper registered production capacity was implemented, strengthening the medium - and long - term supply increase expectation. However, short - term smelting disturbances were limited, and the raw material inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand in industries such as electricity, construction, and automobiles was weak. Copper cable enterprises slowed down downstream pick - up due to copper prices reaching 83,000 yuan/ton, and their finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month. The operating rate of enameled machines decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% month - on - month, and the pre - holiday inventory of brass rod enterprises was significantly lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, approaching the National Day holiday, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to decrease by 9.74 percentage points to 64.04% month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased continuously, reaching 26,557 tons on September 26, a decrease of 3.99% compared to the previous week. However, the SHFE inventory remained at a high level of 144,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to accumulate, resulting in a differentiated pressure on global visible inventories. The finished product inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 78,900 tons [5]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | September 26, 2025 | September 25, 2025 | September 22, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 82,660 | 82,520 | 80,140 | 140 | 0.17% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 40 | 80 | 95 | -40 | -50.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -40 | -10 | 15 | -30 | -300.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -105 | -60 | -35 | -45 | -75.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | -34 | -32 | -31 | -2 | -7.48% | dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 82,490 | 82,540 | 79,990 | -50 | -0.06% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,205 | 10,276 | 10,320 | -71 | -0.69% | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 26,557 | 27,662 | 27,419 | -1,105 | -3.99% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 144,400 | 144,425 | 144,775 | -25 | -0.02% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 322,284 | 321,056 | 318,229 | 1,228 | 0.38% | short tons | [9] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 26, Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project invested by Canadian mining company McEwen Copper, and McEwen Copper enjoys the tax exemption plan of the large - scale investment incentive system (RIGI) [10]. - It is expected that the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises will drop to 64.04% next week (September 26 - October 2), a month - on - month decrease of 9.74 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. The main reasons are that high copper prices suppress downstream inventory demand and enterprises' pre - stocked inventory has not been significantly digested. In addition, the National Day holiday in the next week will lead to centralized production holidays of many enterprises [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, domestic main refined copper rod enterprises mainly focused on production and inventory, so the raw material inventory increased by 2.21% month - on - month, reaching 32,400 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month, reaching 78,900 tons [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points, 0.09 percentage points lower than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Jintian Copper" brand A - grade copper produced by Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, and it can be used for the performance settlement of the cathode copper futures contract [11]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [12][16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market will continue its oscillatory pattern with limited upside potential. Supply-side factors are mixed, with OPEC+ production increase expectations and Iraq's export recovery pressuring prices, while Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Russia's fuel export restrictions provide geopolitical premium support. Demand lacks significant incremental drivers, and the withdrawal of speculative funds may limit upward flexibility. If OPEC+ unexpectedly expands the production increase scale, it may trigger an oil price correction, but geopolitical risks still provide support at the lower end [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 26, 2025, the SC main contract rose slightly by 0.14% to 491.3 yuan/barrel, WTI fell slightly by 0.05% to 65.19 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose slightly by 0.03% to 68.82 dollars/barrel. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread narrowed slightly by 0.01 dollars to 0.04 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread strengthened by 0.04 dollars to 3.67 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened by 0.05 dollars to 3.63 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread further weakened by 0.8 yuan to -4.3 yuan/barrel, indicating pressure on near - month contracts [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: As of the week of September 23, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 11,592 lots to 220,579 lots, and diesel net long positions decreased by 3,817 lots to 114,507 lots, showing increasing caution in the market towards the energy product outlook [2]. 2. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ may approve a production increase of at least 13.7 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Coupled with the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq, the future crude oil supply is expected to increase marginally. However, Ukraine's attacks on Russia's Chuvash oil pumping station and refineries may increase the uncertainty of Russian crude oil exports. China's newly discovered shale oil reserves of 1.58 billion tons have limited short - term impact on global supply [3]. - **Demand Side**: Slovakia clearly refused to stop importing Russian oil, indicating that some European countries still rely on Russian oil, supporting demand resilience. However, the continuous reduction of diesel speculative net long positions implies a weakening expectation of refined oil demand. The US pressure on Turkey to stop buying Russian oil may disrupt local trade flows, but the actual impact needs to be observed [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The EIA inventory report for the week of September 19 showed that the US oil market was in a tight supply - demand balance. Crude oil inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels to 414.8 million barrels, reversing the market's expected increase of 235,000 barrels and reaching the lowest level since January. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.1 million barrels to 216.6 million barrels, the lowest since the end of November last year; distillate inventory decreased by 1.7 million barrels to 123 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 494,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased slightly by 177,000 barrels to 23.7 million barrels, the first increase in September but still at the lowest level during the same period since 2018 [4]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On September 26, 2025, SC futures price rose slightly, WTI fell slightly, and Brent rose slightly. Among spot prices, Brent, Oman, Victory, ESPO, and Duri increased, while Dubai decreased. Spreads such as SC - WTI and Brent - WTI widened, while SC - Brent and SC continuous - consecutive 3 narrowed. Other assets like the US dollar index decreased, while the S&P 500 and DAX index increased [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: On September 26, 2025, the prices of FU and LU futures increased, while NYMEX fuel oil decreased. Among spot prices, some products such as marine 180CST and 380CST in Singapore increased, while most others remained unchanged. Spreads such as Singapore high - low sulfur spread and China high - low sulfur spread decreased [8]. 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: OPEC+ may approve a production increase of at least 13.7 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Iraq resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and its production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota. China's Daqing Gulong continental shale oil demonstration area added 1.58 billion tons of proven shale oil reserves [9][10][11]. - **Demand**: The EU appealed the dispute panel report on Indonesia's biodiesel import tariffs. Ukraine's military attacked a Russian refinery [12]. - **Inventory**: Information mainly focuses on the closing prices and changes of financial products such as gold, silver, and crude oil futures contracts [13]. - **Market Information**: At the opening on Monday, spot gold opened slightly lower, and WTI crude oil opened 0.24% lower. Speculative net long positions of diesel and Brent crude oil decreased. The US pressured Turkey to stop buying Russian oil [14][15]. 5. Industrial Chain Data Charts - A series of charts are provided, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC, US crude oil production, rig numbers, refinery operating rates, crude oil processing volumes, commercial and strategic crude oil inventories, fuel oil prices, spreads, and inventories [16][18][20].